Fallout: New poll shows steep drop in Christie’s numbers in New Jersey after Bridgegate

posted at 6:41 pm on January 22, 2014 by Allahpundit

His job approval and favorable rating are still net positive — amazing resilience, really, for a Republican dogged by scandal in a blue state — but the gap is closing. Polls taken earlier this month in Jersey after Bridgegate broke showed minimal damage to him; this one, from the Eagleton Center at Rutgers, shows that it’s now more severe. And this one was mostly conducted before the mayor of Hoboken accused him of withholding Sandy aid unless she approved a development project in which Christie was interested.

It’s hard to be “the electable candidate” if you’re not much more electable than your rivals. Christie’s not sunk yet, but if independents start to bail, hoo boy.

Following more than a year of strong bipartisan support, Christie’s favorability rating is now 46 percent favorable to 43 percent unfavorable, down from 65 percent favorable just before his landslide re-election. This drop in support is led by a 26-point decline among Democrats…

Christie’s ratings drop is driven by a very large decline among Democrats while most Republicans – and many independents – continue to stand by the Governor. In November, 45 percent of Democrats were favorable, but with new challenges to Christie’s bipartisan leadership, only 19 percent of Democrats are now positive. Democratic approval of Christie’s job performance has dropped from 51 percent to 29 percent. While noticeably down from November, Republicans are still very positive: 78 percent feel favorable, and 83 percent approve of the job Christie is doing. Independent support has also dropped, but a majority continues to favor Christie…

[O]nly a quarter of Democrats think Christie was unaware of his aides’ actions; instead, over half say it is very unlikely Christie was out of the loop. Moreover, 62 percent of Democrats do not believe at all Christie’s explanation for what happened.

Whether or not they think Christie is telling the truth, New Jerseyans overwhelmingly blame Christie’s “tough-guy” persona for the conduct of his staff: more than 70 percent say the Governor’s attitude contributed at least somewhat to his staff’s reported behavior. Even six in ten Republicans believe Christie’s demeanor has at least somewhat encouraged these events.

Nine days ago, Monmouth had his job approval at 59 percent and his favorable rating at 44/28. Today Eagleton has them at 51 percent and 46/43, respectively. Among Democrats, it’s a bloodbath — they disapprove of his job performance overwhelmingly, 29/64, and view him unfavorably even more overwhelmingly at 19/69. You can, if you like, ignore that decline as inevitable: Just as Hillary’s sky-high bipartisan favorable rating has begun to sink now that it’s clear she’s the prime threat to the GOP in 2016, Christie’s support among Democrats would surely have sunk over time once he ran for president. All Bridgegate’s doing, arguably, is accelerating the process. Problem is, the acceleration hurts his big presidential pitch that he can get Democrats and indies to cross the aisle unlike anyone else in the GOP field. It’s fine for Democrats to turn on him but he’d much prefer that to happen later, after he’s got the nomination in hand. As it is, he now trails Hillary in New Jersey by 21 points — which, per Harry Enten, is actually a bigger deficit than Mitt Romney ended up with there against Obama in 2012. If that doesn’t change substantially before the GOP primaries, how does a guy who’s underperforming the previous nominee in his own state against a non-incumbent make the case that he’s Mr. Electable?

There’s always a chance Christie will rebound, but here’s an eye-popper from Eagleton suggesting why he won’t:

san

It’s a legit achievement for any blue-state Republican governor to stay at or around 50 percent approval for years on end but the legend of Christie’s allegedly unique bipartisan appeal is, obviously, mostly a product of Sandy. His numbers took off after the storm and now Bridgegate’s returned them to their pre-storm normal. How likely is it that he’ll give New Jersey Democrats a reason to start nudging them back up towards 60, especially once they’re eyeing him as an obstacle to holding the White House in 2016?

The keepers of the flame now are independents and moderates. The former currently split 60/33 on Christie’s job approval and 55/33 on his favorability; the latter split 53/40 and 45/41, respectively. As long as those numbers stay healthy, he can still make the “I can play on Democrats’ turf” argument. As for Latino and black voters, whom Christie took care to woo before the election to further polish his crossover cred, I’d love to give you the data but I can’t. Eagleton, oddly, didn’t provide it for those groups. For what it’s worth, the anecdotal evidence looks favorable to Christie. Stay tuned.


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Stay tuned.

For how long?

Schadenfreude on January 22, 2014 at 6:43 PM

The original post on this subject suggested his number had actually gone up. That made no sense. This does.

Three cheers for Cuccinelli for having the (heh) moral clarity to call on Krispy Kreme to resign from the Governors association. I second that call.

Jaibones on January 22, 2014 at 6:46 PM

Gee, I all these polls have me so excited I can’t wait for the first primary debates to start.

myiq2xu on January 22, 2014 at 6:46 PM

This drop in support is led by a 26-point decline among Democrats…

So much for the Reagan Democrats, eh big boy?

portlandon on January 22, 2014 at 6:48 PM

If you dig deeper, you’ll see that his numbers are down big among Indies and Republicans as well as compared to their last poll.

Right Wingnut on January 22, 2014 at 6:55 PM

Here’s a good summary that shows his numbers in their previous polls by party ID. It’s not a pretty sight for Christie fans.

http://race42016.com/2014/01/22/poll-watch-rutgers-eagleton-new-jersey-survey-on-governor-chris-christie-8/

Right Wingnut on January 22, 2014 at 6:57 PM

As planned…

ExpressoBold on January 22, 2014 at 6:58 PM

Fallout: New poll shows steep drop in Christie’s numbers in New Jersey after Bridgegate

And this has … exactly what to do with the Conservative agenda?

And spare me the “most electable” crap.

M240H on January 22, 2014 at 6:58 PM

Christie is going to win in 2016.

GW_SS-Delta on January 22, 2014 at 6:59 PM

christies been diblasioed

renalin on January 22, 2014 at 7:00 PM

Why can’t he just kill some Americans like Killery and Hussein ?

burrata on January 22, 2014 at 7:01 PM

AllahPundits hardest hit.

rbj on January 22, 2014 at 7:01 PM

He should just focus on being guvner,, like he said he wanted to.

Ignore the flak.

wolly4321 on January 22, 2014 at 7:03 PM

Couldn’t have happened to a nicer pro-illegal alien amnesty RINO.

Liberal, anti-gun Chris Christie must never come close to the GOP nomination. Christie as the nominee would ensure that Hillary would win in a landslide.

bluegill on January 22, 2014 at 7:08 PM

The Left has done it again. We are allowing them to take out their opposition. I am not a big Christy fan, but they are doing it to Bob McDonnell here in VA, too. It’s like the Salem Witch Trials. Wake up you Republican wimps. Fight this.

BetseyRoss on January 22, 2014 at 7:14 PM

So, twinkie boy, do you still think sucking obama’s toes was a good idea?

crash72 on January 22, 2014 at 7:14 PM

USS Christie Smacks into the Bridge,,,,,,,
(sarc)

Ship Bridge Collision
*********************

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F5Y-PnFlCpc

canopfor on January 22, 2014 at 7:16 PM

The left strikes again. With their lies, deception and a willing media they destroy (not discredit)a candidate for office.

rjoco1 on January 22, 2014 at 7:18 PM

This is a non-story. At least for me.

I will never -ever- -ever- vote for this buffoon.

TX-96 on January 22, 2014 at 7:18 PM

Christie is dead, Allahpundit. He’s dead. Let him go. Another like him will come along for you someday, maybe someone even louder and fatter and more corrupt.

VorDaj on January 22, 2014 at 7:19 PM

BetseyRoss on January 22, 2014 at 7:14 PM

LOL.

renalin on January 22, 2014 at 7:19 PM

Fallout: New poll shows steep drop in Christie’s numbers in New Jersey after Bridgegate

…well…this is breaking someone’s heart!

KOOLAID2 on January 22, 2014 at 7:20 PM

wolly4321 on January 22, 2014 at 7:03 PM

That could be a positive to come out of this. Maybe he could spend his time on NJ issues instead of campaigning for higher office. Isn’t that what he said he’d do?

katiejane on January 22, 2014 at 7:21 PM

Rameriz

Bmore on January 22, 2014 at 7:24 PM

His job approval and favorable rating are still net positive — amazing resilience

Fat, especially subdural fat deposits, make an excellent shock absorber.

Look, Christie never really was a contender and all the glowing comments about his resilience is not going to change the unvarnished truth. Christie endorsed Obama days before the election. Christie supports the DREAM act and other gifts to illegals. Christie is not a champion of social conservatism because he is a Boehner/McConnell RINO. Christie is a bully who got caught playing petty partisan games that reminds one of the kind of stuff Obama would do.

So all of you smitten with Christie to the point you have his picture on your bedroom walls, get over your puppy love crush and lets talk about candidates who might actually rally the GOP and bring the nation together.

Christie may be stronger than the storm but that’s about it. Acting like a Capo doesn’t play outside of the mafia-run parts of the nation.

Happy Nomad on January 22, 2014 at 7:27 PM

The Left has done it again. We are allowing them to take out their opposition. I am not a big Christy fan, but they are doing it to Bob McDonnell here in VA, too. It’s like the Salem Witch Trials. Wake up you Republican wimps. Fight this.

BetseyRoss on January 22, 2014 at 7:14 PM

Fight what exactly. I’ll fight for Bob who seems subject to a partisan persecution. I will not fight for a fat bully who endorsed Obama.

Happy Nomad on January 22, 2014 at 7:30 PM

What will we do if Christie isn’t the GOP candidate?!
All hope is lost, and I have no reason to live.
{tears}

Erich66 on January 22, 2014 at 7:34 PM

Stay tuned.

For how long?

Schadenfreude on January 22, 2014 at 6:43 PM

I am guessing about 2 hours until Allahpundit does another Christie post.

The one good thing is that this is mostly a stick a fork in Christie post. So maybe the end is near.

What this should show is that any “moderate” Republican that gets favorable press coverage[McCain-Romney-Christie] are ALWAYS “Hot Air Blimps” just waiting to get the media fork stuck in them. All it took was one negative little story that he supposedly didn’t even do to deflate him 10 points against Hillary. One stupid little thing.

Hopefully we will all remember this the next time they pick our Mr. Electable.

KMav on January 22, 2014 at 7:35 PM

Good. One less rino obstacle for the Tea Party candidates to have to waste time and resources fighting “friendly fire” from. There’s a few more rinos (Ahem McCain) out there I’d like to see taken out of contention too. As long as people believe that Christie and his ilk speak for conservatives we’ll never get anywhere towards restoring our republic.

Harbingeing on January 22, 2014 at 7:35 PM

What will we do if Christie isn’t the GOP candidate?!
All hope is lost, and I have no reason to live.
{tears}

Erich66 on January 22, 2014 at 7:34 PM

Throw your favorite Godfather movie on the DVD and lament what might have been.

Happy Nomad on January 22, 2014 at 7:41 PM

You can knock AP for his zealous coverage.

But you have to admit he did a good job of it.

I’m not going to knock him much. Someday he might put the same energy in to something I care about as much as he does this.

I’m NEVER voting for Christie, but AP’s qotd write-ups are amazing.

wolly4321 on January 22, 2014 at 7:48 PM

TX-96 on January 22, 2014 at 7:18 PM

yep, same here. his first impression was easily his best…been a very long ago

DanMan on January 22, 2014 at 7:55 PM

You can knock AP for his zealous coverage.

But you have to admit he did a good job of it.

wolly4321 on January 22, 2014 at 7:48 PM

A few people from Fort Lee NJ were inconvenienced with a couple days of traffic jams. Nobody died as a result. I, for one, am sick of this perpetual defense of the fat bully who jumped parties to endorse Obama.

He doesn’t deserve any attention at all- which would really steam him more than his ability to hold two-hour pressers. Fat people often have big egos to hide esteem issues.

Happy Nomad on January 22, 2014 at 7:59 PM

Rameriz

Bmore on January 22, 2014 at 7:24 PM

Bmore: Veddy nice,…and UGH:0

canopfor on January 22, 2014 at 8:00 PM

I’m skeptical as usual about polls. I just hope they don’t boost Christie’s appetite.

viking01 on January 22, 2014 at 8:01 PM

I’m NEVER voting for Christie, but AP’s qotd write-ups are amazing.

wolly4321 on January 22, 2014 at 7:48 PM

To be sure – all the QotD “write-ups” are excerpts from articles, with a common theme.

It is true that AP picks great quotes and does a great job for the QotD compilation, his Christie fetish, or teasing his readership aside. However, he doesn’t write anything for that task.

The blue parts, if you click on them, take you to the actual articles/writers.

Schadenfreude on January 22, 2014 at 8:01 PM

These Republican wannabe presidents are self destructing before our very eyes. Neither one of them has been proven guilty yet, but McDonnell is pretty much toast and maybe Christie is too. People are fed up with this crapola!

scalleywag on January 22, 2014 at 8:05 PM

Christie is going to win in 2016.

GW_SS-Delta on January 22, 2014 at 6:59 PM

Yes. A buy one, get one free coupon at Dunkin Donuts.

riddick on January 22, 2014 at 8:07 PM

I know what qotd is, friend. :)

It’s still one helluva pile of gathered intel. Probably a rolling construct from all day.

And it’s all there.

wolly4321 on January 22, 2014 at 8:09 PM

We went through all those years of seeing John McCain, the “deemed nominee,” posing with, consumed by glee and happiness, Hillary then Pelosi.

Look how that turned out. Loud complaints from GOP voters but look how that turned out.

Will the GOP never learn?

Christie is close to the least favored guy for the GOP to nominate or who the voters on the Right want as President. Why or why the “party people” in the GOP can’t or won’t pay attention to that, I’ll never understand.

But, what it literally means is, we don’t like Hillary. Therefore, if and as McCain and then Christie pose in the same light, we don’t like them, either.

Nominating another Liberal isn’t the way to extinguish the Liberal junkfire.

Lourdes on January 22, 2014 at 8:16 PM

If I still lived in MD Omalley would be my guv.

Coumo?

I don’t like Christie but off the Eastcoast it’s a different measurement, I guess.

I didn’t say I agreed with AP’s opinion,, I just said he did a good job of laying it out.

Most of you blew it off, so he let it fly.

wolly4321 on January 22, 2014 at 8:17 PM

I appreciate the fact that AP reads all the articles, provides a synopsis of what’s out there, provides a link so we can read the whole thing if we want to, sometimes suggest we do, adds some snarky comments, and then throws it out there for people to comment. He does this on every post, not just Christie posts.

scalleywag on January 22, 2014 at 8:18 PM

I wonder if Christie has been able to avoid raiding the cookie jar over the past two weeks?

Right Wingnut on January 22, 2014 at 8:22 PM

God forbid we support a politician who holds people accountable, holds press conferences for as long as it takes for every reporter’s question to be answered.

In less than 12 hours Christie had found the culprit, fired her, and set up a press conference to answer questions. Obama has no less than 5 on going scandals, as many of his staff proven to Ave perpetrated felony counts of perjury to keep them covered up, & no one has been fired.

easyt65 on January 22, 2014 at 8:39 PM

God forbid we support a politician who holds people accountable, holds press conferences for as long as it takes for every reporter’s question to be answered.

I agree, Christie’s a damn good leader for a Democrat. I wish more Democrats were like him.

Do you think he can beat out Hillary for the Democratic nomination?

Pincher Martin on January 22, 2014 at 8:49 PM

These Republican wannabe presidents are self destructing before our very eyes. Neither one of them has been proven guilty yet, but McDonnell is pretty much toast and maybe Christie is too. People are fed up with this crapola!

scalleywag on January 22, 2014 at 8:05 PM

.
“Self destructing?” Really? Give the Democrat-run media some credit fer cryin’ out loud!

ExpressoBold on January 22, 2014 at 8:56 PM

He is lucky to be a governor. I wasn’t going to vote for him anyways.

So between him and Hilary I’m thinking we should start to see some better options. If I had to pick between two tyrants and a sharp stick I would choose the stick.

RDE2010 on January 23, 2014 at 9:09 AM