Iran to begin dismantling nuclear program next week?

posted at 6:31 pm on January 12, 2014 by Jazz Shaw

You can choose to believe it or not as you prefer, but it seems that Iran is claiming that they will begin unwinding some of their nuclear weapons program on January 20th. This from CNN.

Save the date: Iran has pledged to start eliminating some of its uranium stockpile on January 20, the White House said Sunday.

That gives an official start date for the six-month interim deal with Iran, which was first announced in November.

“As of that day, for the first time in almost a decade, Iran’s nuclear program will not be able to advance, and parts of it will be rolled back, while we start negotiating a comprehensive agreement to address the international community’s concerns about Iran’s program,” U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said in a statement Sunday.

As part of the agreement, Iran has agreed to start eliminating its stockpile of higher levels of enriched uranium, to dismantle some infrastructure that makes higher-level uranium enrichment possible, and not to start up additional centrifuges.

In exchange, some sanctions against Iran will be eased as part of “modest relief,” the White House said.

That “modest relief” is apparently in the form of $4.2B in frozen assets to be released in a series of payments stretching over six months. Is this worth believing on any level? Dr. James Joyner apparently suggests caution, but doesn’t see it as entirely without hope.

Now, it should go without saying, Iran’s pledging to do something and their doing it are not the same thing. Indeed, even Kerry, the architect of the deal, is highly wary and rightly so.

Caveats notwithstanding, however, this has to be viewed as a major diplomatic coup for Kerry and the Obama administration. Few of us thought Iran would voluntarily roll back its program. In my own case, it wasn’t a function of simply distrusting a ruthless regime that has from its outset viewed the United States as evil. Rather, it’s very much in the interest of both the Iranian state and the mullahs to acquire nuclear weapons to bolster their security and prestige and there didn’t appear to be anything the United States or the international community could offer by way of a carrot that would be more valuable. Sanctions relief, while obviously of great value to the people of Iran, certainly didn’t seem to be that highly prized by the regime.

This entire story puts the US in a rather odd position on the world stage. As Erika reported yesterday, Congress appears to be moving closer and closer to ignoring these negotiations entirely and introducing new sanctions on Iran, even as Kerry and Obama are dangling a carrot in front of Iran to gain concessions. If we are to assume that Iran’s entire motivation to even give the appearance of backing down on their nuclear ambitions is to get some of the sanctions removed, such an action would undoubtedly put the brakes on whatever dismantling they claim to be starting.

Is this a serious offer by Iran or just a chess move to put a halt to Congress moving against them? Taking Iran at their word is dubious at best, but it does highlight the fractured nature of the current US administration. Traditionally, the executive branch would take the lead on these sorts of maneuvers, but they’d have gotten some back room, tacit agreement from the legislative branch before doing it. This just seems to advertise to the world that Barack Obama is not in control of his own foreign policy.


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Check’s in the mail.

I won’t ?? in your mouth.

Let’s do lunch.

We’ll shut down our nuke program.

kim roy on January 12, 2014 at 6:34 PM

Rope Al Dope.

BL@KBIRD on January 12, 2014 at 6:35 PM

If both Kerry and the Iranians tell you something, it must be true, because you have their word on it.

VorDaj on January 12, 2014 at 6:38 PM

Rope Al Dope.

BL@KBIRD on January 12, 2014 at 6:35 PM

Perch a Lurch.

VorDaj on January 12, 2014 at 6:39 PM

Yeah, this is real…for sure.

Wonder what Obama gave them for this announcement? Note that he would give up anything just for the announcement, the reality means nothing to him.

AUINSC on January 12, 2014 at 6:40 PM

Absolutely they are-and I’m also getting gender-reassignment surgery and then joining the Peace Corps.

annoyinglittletwerp on January 12, 2014 at 6:45 PM

On January 20, to celebrate the 5th anniversary of the fall of the USA!

Gingotts on January 12, 2014 at 6:45 PM

Yeah..sure.

Mimzey on January 12, 2014 at 6:47 PM

This from CNN.

In the country next door, CNN ignored Saddam Hussein’s atrocities against his own citizens for a decade, just so they could keep their Baghdad bureau open. Consider me skeptical.

Del Dolemonte on January 12, 2014 at 6:48 PM

Yeah..sure.

Mimzey on January 12, 2014 at 6:47 PM

My reaction.

rrpjr on January 12, 2014 at 6:51 PM

Have I got a bridge for you??

Cindy Munford on January 12, 2014 at 6:51 PM

Dr. James Joyner? Really Jazz? OTB has become a very lefty site (with the exception of uber libertarian Doug Mataconis) and Joyner does not hold much credibility with me.

This is just more Iranian 3 card monty. They are not going to stop their nuclear program until some makes them do it or they bring about their Shiite dream of ending the world by whatever means possible and bring back the 12th imam. These are not rational people like the Russians were in the Cold War. They desire death, and death to all who resist bringing back the “prophet”. Destruction of the “Zionist entity” is their way to start this war to end all wars and bring back the Mahdi.

People can say what they want about the Iranian mullahs, but this is their ambition. Period.

Liberals like Joyner are wrong as always.

simkeith on January 12, 2014 at 6:55 PM

Cindy Munford on January 12, 2014 at 6:51 PM

Aw shucks, another bridgegate.

SteveInRTP on January 12, 2014 at 6:57 PM

Trust but verify.

Show Me.

You can keep your plan.

You can keep your doctor.

Just the tip.

yeah.

RealMc on January 12, 2014 at 7:05 PM

Iran to begin dismantling nuclear program next week?

that’s a little misleading. They have a bunch of enriched uranium, and are going to reduce part of that somewhat (from, say 20 percent to 5 percent). This can be easily re-enriched

http://www.isis-online.org/

this is a very interesting place to get information about all the terms that are used in the field. Esp. read the pdf under Iranian breakout potential. Very interesting.

the ISIS is modestly happy with the agreement, but just a small baby step…and could be reversed at any point rather quickly

r keller on January 12, 2014 at 7:05 PM

And just before she died, she disavowed Darwinism and embraced Intelligent Design: http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkeys-archaeology-doyenne-dies-aged-98.aspx?pageID=238&nID=60920&NewsCatID=375

davidk on January 12, 2014 at 7:06 PM

Global warming:

Emergency services are on alert in South Australia as much of the state faces a severe heatwave over the next week.

Police have asked the public to be vigilant to the dangers of bushfires, while known arsonists have been warned Operation Nomad patrols will be out in force.

Adelaide is facing temperatures above 40C for the next five days, as is most of the state including Renmark and Port Augusta.

http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2014/01/13/extreme-heat-warning-sa

davidk on January 12, 2014 at 7:13 PM

SteveInRTP on January 12, 2014 at 6:57 PM

Mine has all its lanes working, I promise.

Cindy Munford on January 12, 2014 at 7:15 PM

40 C = 105 F

davidk on January 12, 2014 at 7:15 PM

correction 104 F

davidk on January 12, 2014 at 7:15 PM

October 21, 1994:

“We have neither the intention nor the plan to develop nuclear weapons,” said North Korea’s chief negotiator, Kang Sok Ju.

At a news conference in Washington, President Clinton said the treaty was “a good deal for the United States.”

ShainS on January 12, 2014 at 7:22 PM

Believe this trash at your own peril.

rplat on January 12, 2014 at 7:27 PM

Long game. The start of the process, from ore to low percentages, is orders of magnitude more time consuming than going from moderate percentages to high percentages. Taking the time now to build up stockpiles of enriched (but not too enriched) uranium means later on they can produce the nastier stuff much more quickly.

Fenris on January 12, 2014 at 7:27 PM

EU spokesman Michael Mann said on Friday that any agreements would need to be validated by the governments of Iran and the six powers.

But yeah it’s starting the 20th.

kcewa on January 12, 2014 at 7:32 PM

Sure they are…

Athos on January 12, 2014 at 7:36 PM

Hahahahahaha!!!!! Good one!!

Bitter Clinger on January 12, 2014 at 7:45 PM

I wonder if I could sell that bridge that Christie had shut down to these believers.

savage24 on January 12, 2014 at 7:45 PM

This just seems to advertise to the world that Barack Obama is not in control of his own foreign policy.

Well duh!

What I’m interested in is what it will take to advertise to the morons who still support this lazy shiftless coward that he is not in control of his own foreign policy. That all the shucking and jiving is nothing more than entertinment to hide the fact that the stupid community organizer doesn’t know the first thing about being a leader.

Happy Nomad on January 12, 2014 at 7:51 PM

Yeah, and the IRS doesn’t target people.

SouthernGent on January 12, 2014 at 7:55 PM

You will please pardon me if I don’t hold my breath waiting for this load of crap to be proven true.

If you don’t choose to do so then sign up for the John Kerry Fanboi club!

Old Dog on January 12, 2014 at 8:06 PM

“Reducing stockpile” can also mean transferring the stockpile to the weapons sites.

ss396 on January 12, 2014 at 8:25 PM

Save the date: Iran has pledged to start eliminating some of its uranium stockpile on January 20, the White House said Sunday.

Catherine E. Shoichet (CNN) on January 12, 2014

.
Okay, the date is “saved.” Now then, what is the approximation of “some”?

Should we all hold our breath ?

listens2glenn on January 12, 2014 at 9:02 PM

As part of the agreement, Iran has agreed to start eliminating its stockpile of higher levels of enriched uranium, to dismantle some infrastructure that makes higher-level uranium enrichment possible, and not to start up additional centrifuges.

Representatives from the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog agency will also monitor Iran’s nuclear facilities and make sure the country is taking the required steps as part of the deal.

Catherine E. Shoichet (CNN) on January 12, 2014

.
Oh, my gracious … I should have read have read down further, before making that first “snarky” comment. Silly me.
If the U.N. “nuclear watchdog agency” is going to be allowed to monitor all of this, no problem.
I mean, what could go wrong ? As long as the U.N. “nuclear watchdog agency” is on the job over there, we can all sleep better at night, with a greater sense of security.
.

In exchange, some sanctions against Iran will be eased as part of what the White House calls “modest relief.”

Catherine E. Shoichet (CNN) on January 12, 2014

.
Okay, that part will most certainly happen, so Cathy is not completely wrong.

listens2glenn on January 12, 2014 at 9:16 PM

Lurch was too busy evading taxes and Barky too busy cheating at golf to notice the Iranians had their fingers crossed.

viking01 on January 12, 2014 at 9:22 PM

As long as the islamic terrorist regime in Iran has the centrifuges then they have the capabilities of making the nuclear weapons… Anything else such as remove of nuclear stockpiles is totally meaningless…

mnjg on January 12, 2014 at 9:42 PM

“We will know soon enough if Iran is committed to a diplomatic resolution of its nuclear program. If it is not, new sanctions will move with lightning speed out of the Congress and with my full support.”

Rep. Adam Schiff, D-California

.
What ‘pace’ of Legislative movement constitutes “lightning speed” ?
.

“Many obstacles remain, … ”

Rep. Adam Schiff, D-California

.
Such as . . . . . ?
.

” ….. and I continue to be skeptical of Tehran’s willingness to abandon pursuit of nuclear weapons technology, … “

Rep. Adam Schiff, D-California

.
THEN WHY THE (expletive) ARE YOU SUPPORTING THIS WHOLE (expletive) DEAL ?
.

….. but I am also fully convinced that we must try the diplomatic path.

Rep. Adam Schiff, D-California

.
Oh . . . . . that’s why.

Congressman, what do we call a politician who agrees to a “matter of life or death” deal with someone, when said politician is “skeptical” of the other party’s willingness to keep the deal ?

listens2glenn on January 12, 2014 at 9:42 PM

You can choose to believe it or not as you prefer, but it seems that Iran is claiming that they will begin unwinding some of their nuclear weapons program on January 20th. This from CNN.

The only people who shouldn’t be believed are neocons.

Hot Air, you told everyone on Oct 25, 2013 that Iran is one month away from a nuke. So, where is it? You guys have some nerve to question the credibility of anyone else.

antifederalist on January 12, 2014 at 9:46 PM

Hot Air, you told everyone on Oct 25, 2013 that Iran is one month away from a nuke. So, where is it?

antifederalist on January 12, 2014 at 9:46 PM

.
All Ed did was produce a story about a report from the Institute for Science and International Security, that claimed Iran is a month away from having a “thermo-nuke”.

Is there some reason that we should question the credibility of the Institute for Science and International Security ?

I can’t prove that Iran does have one, right now.

Can you prove that they don’t ?

listens2glenn on January 12, 2014 at 10:16 PM

And the ayatollahs never surf for porn, either.

profitsbeard on January 12, 2014 at 10:26 PM

Taqiyya never ends in the Middle East.

nobar on January 12, 2014 at 11:27 PM

I thought this was The Onion for second.

MH53J on January 13, 2014 at 12:11 AM

Like many others I feel compelled to dip back into my youth and offer the following somewhat edited observation. It is evergreen:

The check is in the mail

I won’t do anything surprising, unwanted or distasteful in your mouth

I’ll respect you in the morning

Mason on January 13, 2014 at 12:22 AM

All Ed did was produce a story about a report from the Institute for Science and International Security, that claimed Iran is a month away from having a “thermo-nuke”.
Is there some reason that we should question the credibility of the Institute for Science and International Security ?
I can’t prove that Iran does have one, right now.
Can you prove that they don’t ?
listens2glenn on January 12, 2014 at 10:16 PM

Ed promotes whatever hate Iran stories he can find. It’s all a part of the propaganda. The truth doesn’t matter at all. People will tell you whatever lie they have to tell toon order to get their war. It’s all apart if the noble lie.

antifederalist on January 13, 2014 at 5:00 AM

Rope-a-dope….

albill on January 13, 2014 at 6:36 AM

Save the date: Iran has pledged to start eliminating some of its uranium stockpile on January 20, the White House said Sunday.

And pigs will sprout wings and start flying.

sadatoni on January 13, 2014 at 7:21 AM

Ed promotes whatever hate Iran stories he can find. It’s all a part of the propaganda. The truth doesn’t matter at all. People will tell you whatever lie they have to tell toon order to get their war. It’s all apart if the noble lie.

antifederalist on January 13, 2014 at 5:00 AM

The islamic terrorist regime in Iran cannot be trusted at all on anything… They want to make nuclear weapons… As long as they have the centrifuges they will be capable of making the nuclear weapon… This deal does not take away their centrifuges and hence it is totally meaningless… The 7th century terrorist mullahs are the only winners in this deal…

mnjg on January 13, 2014 at 8:20 AM

The islamic terrorist regime in Iran cannot be trusted at all on anything… They want to make nuclear weapons… As long as they have the centrifuges they will be capable of making the nuclear weapon… This deal does not take away their centrifuges and hence it is totally meaningless… The 7th century terrorist mullahs are the only winners in this deal…
mnjg on January 13, 2014 at 8:20 AM

Nor can those who sold the US on Iraq’s WMDs and nuclear program should be trusted on anything.

If Iran wanted nuclear weapons, why don’t they have them already? Neocons have been crying wolf over Iran’s nukes for 20 years now. Iran has been on the Axis of Evil list for 12 years. If they are so committed to acquiring nukes and wiping Israel off the face of the map, what’s taking them so long to get a nuke? According to the latest National Intelligence Estimate, Iran hasn’t made a decision to pursue a nuclear weapon. Maybe you should start questioning what you have been told about Iran. Maybe you should begin to question the motives of those who have been manipulating you into supporting a war with Iran.

antifederalist on January 13, 2014 at 9:32 AM

listens2glenn on January 12, 2014 at 10:16 PM

.
Ed promotes whatever hate Iran stories he can find. It’s all a part of the propaganda. The truth doesn’t matter at all. People will tell you whatever lie they have to tell toon order to get their war. It’s all apart if the noble lie.

antifederalist on January 13, 2014 at 5:00 AM

.
If there’s any credibility to the report by the Institute for Science and International Security, then Ed’s “ulterior motives” become irrelevant.

Can you discredit the neutrality of the Institute for Science and International Security ?
Can you explain why their report shouldn’t be taken at “face value” ?

listens2glenn on January 13, 2014 at 8:04 PM