ADP: 238,000 new private-sector jobs in December

posted at 10:01 am on January 8, 2014 by Ed Morrissey

The private-sector job market made its fourth straight gain, according to the ADP employment report for December 2013. The payroll giant projects from its data that the US economy added 238,000 jobs in the private sector, the best month of the year:

Private sector employment increased by 238,000 jobs from November to December, according to the December ADP National Employment Report®. Broadly distributed to the public each month, free of charge, the ADP National Employment Report is produced by ADP® , a leading global provider of Human Capital Management (HCM) solutions, in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis.

The previous month’s report came in at 229,000, so this is just a small change month-on-month. However, the trend has moved positively since August’s wan 151K result, and the last three months showed above-200K results. Those were the only three months of 2013 above that threshold, and the initial October report from ADP was 166K, while November’s got ramped up from 215K.

Paul Davidson at USA Today hailed an economy “on a roll”:

The labor market ended 2013 on a roll, with businesses continuing a several-month streak of solid payroll gains by adding 238,000 jobs in December, payroll processor ADP said Wednesday.

Economists expected ADP to report 200,000 additional private-sector jobs, according to a consensus forecast. The Labor Department’s more closely watched survey of businesses and federal, state and local governments, due Friday, is expected to show 195,000 jobs were added last month.

Both employment reports capture similar trends but ADP has had mixed success in forecasting the Labor tally. The two reports sometimes diverge more sharply in December because of holiday absences and the tendency of employers to purge their payrolls of employees who have left the company, says Jim O’Sullivan, chief U.S. economist of High Frequency Economics.

The pace of job growth would be a decent increase, but still far below what would be needed to work off the backlog of the millions who have left the workforce over the last four and a half years of “recovery.” More than 10 million have exited, and with the economy needing to add 150,000 a month to keep up wit population growth, only an explosive expansion in the job market will turn around the chronic issue of joblessness. At the rate suggested by this report, it would take 57 months to create enough jobs to put half of that ten million back to work, and that’s only slightly longer than the number of months from the technical recovery in June 2009 to now. Still, the inventory expansion in Q3 suggests that businesses see a boost coming and will be hiring to meet it.

The BLS report will come out on Friday, and we should see the Gallup survey tomorrow.


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More PT jobs, I’m sure.
With continued drops in labor participation and earned wages.

22044 on January 8, 2014 at 10:02 AM

an economy “on a roll”

Where? Off a cliff or into a ditch?

This economy would be the equivalent of a “participant” ribbon.

So I suppose it fits perfect with our “participant” President.

Gatsu on January 8, 2014 at 10:05 AM

so it’s official–booming, we dont need to extend UE bennies…u cant have both Dimwit…

hillsoftx on January 8, 2014 at 10:05 AM

Then I guess we don’t need to have that unemployment extension.

rogerb on January 8, 2014 at 10:08 AM

So, we don’t need to extend unemployment benefits after all.

Happy Nomad on January 8, 2014 at 10:09 AM

So why do we need to extend unemployment bennies again?

cmsinaz on January 8, 2014 at 10:12 AM

…so when do the part-time jobs…get the revision?

KOOLAID2 on January 8, 2014 at 10:13 AM

Well then I guess we don’t need the unempl….aw crap, you fools already said it.

Bishop on January 8, 2014 at 10:14 AM

The new normal, stagnation is considered “on a roll”.

GarandFan on January 8, 2014 at 10:16 AM

You know what will help those companies who have increased hiring? Starving them of revenue from purchasers on unemployment. Let’s do it!

libfreeordie on January 8, 2014 at 10:21 AM

Great minds :)

cmsinaz on January 8, 2014 at 10:23 AM

You know what will help those companies who have increased hiring? Starving them of revenue from purchasers on unemployment. Let’s do it!

libfreeordie on January 8, 2014 at 10:21 AM

Where does the money come from to pay unemployment benefits?

From producers, who are then starved of revenue that is taken away from them by the government.

ITguy on January 8, 2014 at 10:25 AM

You know what will help those companies who have increased hiring? Starving them of revenue from purchasers on unemployment. Let’s do it!

libfreeordie on January 8, 2014 at 10:21 AM

Welfare for lazy parasites is a stimulus program now? Your boy tried to make that claim yesterday and came off sounding like the lazy shiftless idiot he is. Just shucking and jiving about the neede to continue coddling the parasites to hide the lack of real economic recovery. Nevermind the long-term harm such a tactic causes and the way it steals economic opportunity from future generations. The lazy parasites have got to get themselves those Obamabucks.

Happy Nomad on January 8, 2014 at 10:25 AM

You know what will help those companies who have increased hiring? Starving them of revenue from purchasers on unemployment. Let’s do it!

libfreeordie on January 8, 2014 at 10:21 AM

Because the first thing everyone on UI does is go out and buy a new fridge, washing machine, car, and boat.

BYW, we are in the midst of a second housing bubble, and your guy is clueless.

Difficultas_Est_Imperium on January 8, 2014 at 10:26 AM

*BTW

Difficultas_Est_Imperium on January 8, 2014 at 10:27 AM

Well then I guess we don’t need the unempl….aw crap, you fools already said it.

Bishop on January 8, 2014 at 10:14 AM

No, we all need to be asking the question! If the economy is improving, why do we need to continue the “temporary” extension of unemployment welfare? Can’t those people find jobs now?

Happy Nomad on January 8, 2014 at 10:27 AM

Anyone remember in September of 1983, a million jobs were added? Guess who was president then???

b1jetmech on January 8, 2014 at 10:27 AM

libfreeordie on January 8, 2014 at 10:21 AM

OK, Michael Eric.
Since you’re a Keynesian, tell us how great the Fed bond buyin program is.

22044 on January 8, 2014 at 10:29 AM

Anyone remember in September of 1983, a million jobs were added? Guess who was president then???

b1jetmech on January 8, 2014 at 10:27 AM

Reagan but, of course, he was just benefiting from programs put into place by Jimmy Carter. ;0

Happy Nomad on January 8, 2014 at 10:30 AM

BYW, we are in the midst of a second housing bubble, and your guy is clueless.

Difficultas_Est_Imperium on January 8, 2014 at 10:26 AM

I bought my home about 8 years ago. The burst had just started.
Today, it’s nearly recovered its cost. But it’s projected to fall again.

22044 on January 8, 2014 at 10:30 AM

Anyone remember in September of 1983, a million jobs were added? Guess who was president then???

b1jetmech on January 8, 2014 at 10:27 AM

The answer is in my 10:21 AM comment above…

I think the comparison is illuminating…

Reagan inherited worse than what Obama “inherited” (although Obama was very much a part of CREATING what he “inherited”, while Reagan was not).

Reagan turned employment around. Obama has not.

ITguy on January 8, 2014 at 10:35 AM

The libtards can’t have it both ways on jobs and unemployment.

They can’t crow about the strong recovery and demand extended unemployment benefits at the same time.

Just say no to more unemployment benefits.

txdoc on January 8, 2014 at 10:36 AM

You know what will help those companies who have increased hiring? Starving them of revenue from purchasers on unemployment. Let’s do it!
 
libfreeordie on January 8, 2014 at 10:21 AM

 
Because the first thing everyone on UI does is go out and buy a new fridge, washing machine, car, and boat.
 
BYW, we are in the midst of a second housing bubble, and your guy is clueless.
 
Difficultas_Est_Imperium on January 8, 2014 at 10:26 AM

 
In his defense, he posted a link the other day showing amounts that welfare recipients managed to spend vs. non-welfare recipent budgets (not counting non-cash benefits like medicaid, of course).
 
The most surprising number was how much they managed to match on entertainment spending (40%)
 
So he’s got a point. They can’t buy blu-rays if you don’t give them money, racists.

rogerb on January 8, 2014 at 10:36 AM

You know what will help those companies who have increased hiring? Starving them of revenue from purchasers on unemployment. Let’s do it!

libfreeordie on January 8, 2014 at 10:21 AM

Agreed. That dude at the soup kitchen who took a pic of Big Mooch with his new I-phone, he really helped Apple’s bottom line. Or was his phone a free version passed out because cell phones are a civil right.

Bishop on January 8, 2014 at 10:37 AM

Reagan but, of course, he was just benefiting from programs put into place by Jimmy Carter. ;0

Happy Nomad on January 8, 2014 at 10:30 AM

I get the snark, of course, but it is worth looking at how both the Reagan Tax Cuts and the George W. Bush Tax Cuts turned decreasing employment into increasing employment and INCREASED (not decreased) tax revenue.

Dems seem incapable of understanding that lowering tax rates actually increases tax revenue. It’s a Win-Win… better employment, lower deficits.

If Dems weren’t so ideologically dogmatic, they’d see that tax cuts increase employment and increase revenues, while things like extended unemployment benefits and increasing the minimum wage lead to decreased employment, decreased revenues, and bigger deficits and debt.

ITguy on January 8, 2014 at 10:42 AM

I think the comparison is illuminating…

Reagan inherited worse than what Obama “inherited” (although Obama was very much a part of CREATING what he “inherited”, while Reagan was not).

Reagan turned employment around. Obama has not.

ITguy on January 8, 2014 at 10:35 AM

On top of that Reagan inherited double digit inflation and runaway interest rates.

Obama didn’t.

b1jetmech on January 8, 2014 at 10:44 AM

You know what will help those companies who have increased hiring? Starving them of revenue from purchasers on unemployment. Let’s do it!

libfreeordie on January 8, 2014 at 10:21 AM

Benefits are generally paid by state governments, funded in large part by state and federal payroll taxes levied against employers.

Unemployment benefits are a stimulus to the economy? Ah Nancy, stick to Botox.

Failure. Thy name is liberalism.

AllahsNippleHair on January 8, 2014 at 10:47 AM

Benefits are generally paid by state governments, funded in large part by state and federal payroll taxes levied against employers.

Unemployment benefits are a stimulus to the economy? Ah Nancy, stick to Botox.

Failure. Thy name is liberalism.

AllahsNippleHair on January 8, 2014 at 10:47 AM

I call him Michael Eric, but here Nancy definitely fits him better.

22044 on January 8, 2014 at 10:51 AM

22044 on January 8, 2014 at 10:51 AM

As in this?

ITguy on January 8, 2014 at 10:56 AM

As in this?

ITguy on January 8, 2014 at 10:56 AM

Yes, sir!

22044 on January 8, 2014 at 10:58 AM

an economy “on a roll”

Where? Off a cliff or into a ditch?

This economy would be the equivalent of a “participant” ribbon.

So I suppose it fits perfect with our “participant” President.

Gatsu on January 8, 2014 at 10:05 AM

Into a cliff-sized ditch.

Steve Eggleston on January 8, 2014 at 10:59 AM

If Dems weren’t so ideologically dogmatic, they’d see that tax cuts increase employment and increase revenues, while things like extended unemployment benefits and increasing the minimum wage lead to decreased employment, decreased revenues, and bigger deficits and debt.

ITguy on January 8, 2014 at 10:42 AM

I submit the Rats do see that, and they like decreased employment and the attendant swelling of the rolls of government-handout addicts.

Steve Eggleston on January 8, 2014 at 11:02 AM

Speaking of inventory growth, the ADP conference call suggests that it will be a significant part of 4th-quarter GDP growth as well (H/T – BizzyBlog).

Steve Eggleston on January 8, 2014 at 11:04 AM

Steve Eggleston on January 8, 2014 at 11:02 AM

I agree that the Rats in power want more slaves on their plantation.

It’s the slaves I want to free from economic and mental slavery.

It’s OK to Leave the Plantation : The New Underground Railroad

Runaway Slave

ITguy on January 8, 2014 at 11:15 AM

I fail to see any improvement. In fact, as I listened to my final notice being read to me Monday, It dawned on me that the owners of my company chose to sell at this time because of the upcoming Obamacare corporate mandate. Three divisions were eliminated including our corporate office of which I am a member. 700+ people in South Carolina, Massachusetts, & Connecticut are now or will be shortly unemployed. Those numbers will get mixed in with the governments’ and we will somehow show job growth. I am 65 years old, too old to be pounding the pavement, looking for a job and getting really tired of reading the same old stuff every month.

Boats48 on January 8, 2014 at 11:17 AM

According to Obama and Pelosi,38000 of the 238000 jobs were created by more unemployment sign-ups.

iamsaved on January 8, 2014 at 11:17 AM

What kind of jobs? Xmas-seasonal? If so, this is just dishonest.

RobertMN on January 8, 2014 at 11:36 AM

I work in management in retail and we hired about twenty people for holiday season…and every single one of them are now gone, effective last week. Seasonal holiday hiring is what its called.

Jack_Burton on January 8, 2014 at 11:51 AM

Is unemployment insurance running out a factor in the rise? Maybe those “help wanted” signs at fast food restaurants are finally getting some attention.

iurockhead on January 8, 2014 at 11:57 AM

What percentage of these jobs involve the super-sizing of combo meals?

Left Coast Right Mind on January 8, 2014 at 12:05 PM

Boats48 on January 8, 2014 at 11:17 AM

I’m sorry to hear this. Hopefully you can find a new job quickly.

MeAlice on January 8, 2014 at 12:18 PM

Into a cliff-sized ditch.

Steve Eggleston on January 8, 2014 at 10:59 AM

Carla? Is that you?

Kraken on January 8, 2014 at 1:26 PM

The economy added jobs….at Christmas time??

You’re kidding! /s

KMC1 on January 8, 2014 at 4:26 PM

The economy added jobs….at Christmas time??

You’re kidding! /s

KMC1 on January 8, 2014 at 4:26 PM

It’s called “seasonal adjustments”.

Steve Eggleston on January 8, 2014 at 4:43 PM

It’s called “seasonal adjustments”.

Steve Eggleston on January 8, 2014 at 4:43 PM

I thought it was called “The Recovery Winter”??

KMC1 on January 8, 2014 at 5:49 PM