Final Q3 GDP: 4.1%

posted at 10:31 am on December 20, 2013 by Ed Morrissey

The third and final version of the third-quarter report on the US economy came in better than expected, and a bit better than the second revision in real growth — but still not as impressive as it looks. The topline GDP figure rose from 3.6% to 4.1%, the best such figure in two years.  However, nearly two points of that growth is still in inventory expansion rather than final sales:

Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 4.1 percent in the third quarter of 2013 (that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter), according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 2.5 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “second” estimate issued on December 5, 2103. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 3.6 percent (see “Revisions” on page 3). With this third estimate for the third quarter, increases in personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and in nonresidential fixed investment were larger than previously estimated.

The increase in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from private inventory investment, PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, residential fixed investment, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by a negative contribution from federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

Steve Eggleston provided a good deconstruction of the interim report from Commerce a month ago, noting that the sharp rise from the advance report’s 2.8% to 3.6% all came from inventory expansion.  That’s not the case today; most of the increase came from consumer spending, despite hysterical worries about the impact of the uncertainty over the federal budget (worth noting: the actual shutdown was in Q4, not Q3). Still, real final sales of domestic product — which measures economic expansion without inventory growth — remains in the mid-twos:

The change in real private inventories added 1.67 percentage points to the third-quarter change in real GDP, after adding 0.41 percentage point to the second-quarter change. Private businesses increased inventories $115.7 billion in the third quarter, following increases of $56.6 billion in the second quarter and $42.2 billion in the first.

Real final sales of domestic product — GDP less change in private inventories — increased 2.5 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 2.1 percent in the second.

The GDP in Q2 was 2.5%, and the final-sales figure roughly 2.1%. This shows a mild rebound, but not a terribly impressive one.  The rise in inventories can be seen as a bet by the business sector on Q4 and therefore an optimistic indicator, but it’s not actual economic growth. And if the bet goes bad, that expanded inventory will have a negative impact on orders in Q1.

Reuters took the sunny-side approach:

The U.S. economy grew at its fastest pace in almost two years in the third quarter, the government said on Friday as it revised its estimates of business and consumer spending higher.

The broad revisions hinted at some underlying strength, which could help the economy better absorb the blow from an anticipated cutback in inventory accumulation this quarter. …

That was the quickest pace since the fourth quarter of 2011 and an acceleration from the April-June quarter’s a 2.5 percent.

Economists had expected third-quarter GDP growth would be unrevised at a 3.6 percent rate.

“This is a fairly solid report, said Ryan Sweet, senior economist at Moody’s Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania, adding that the mix of factors in the report was more positive than expected.

“At first it was an inventory story. Now with this mix, it is favorable for the fourth quarter and into early 2014. The pullback in inventories seems less threatening and will be fairly gradual.”

The WSJ is also optimistic:

The higher estimate was driven largely by a revision in consumer spending, which Commerce now says grew at a 2% annual rate in the summer instead of the previously estimated 1.4%. The revision, now showing a slight pickup from the second quarter, reflected higher household spending across the board. Households stepped up purchases of big-ticket items such as refrigerators, daily items such as gasoline and on services, including healthcare.

The latest data shows growth in the quarter was driven by more than just a buildup in businesses’ inventories.

A measure of business spending, nonresidential fixed investment, rose at a 4.8% annual rate last quarter instead of the earlier estimate of 3.5%. The revision was largely driven by a higher estimate of business spending on software.

Export growth was also revised higher, showing a 3.9% annual rate of growth instead of 3.7%.

The report is the latest to suggest the economy gained speed in the second half of the year, boosting expectations for stronger growth in 2014.

Let’s hope so. More than 10 million Americans have dropped out of the workforce since the recovery began in June 2009, and we’ll need a lot better than a 2.5% real final sales rate to generate the job growth needed to put even half of them back to work.


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Under a communist? Weird…..

libfreeordie on December 20, 2013 at 10:33 AM

Should start trickling down any minute now. Yup. Just keep working and waiting. Wage increases are definitely going to come along. Its inevitable right? Just be patient.

libfreeordie on December 20, 2013 at 10:33 AM

Under a communist? Weird…..

libfreeordie on December 20, 2013 at 10:33 AM

I’ll refer you to ZeroHedge for the deconstruction of the PCE increase.

In short, 87% went to health care and gasoline. Not exactly good news.

Steve Eggleston on December 20, 2013 at 10:32 AM

Weird

HumpBot Salvation on December 20, 2013 at 10:35 AM

Once again the government publishes complete propaganda and some swallow it in big gulps.

dogsoldier on December 20, 2013 at 10:38 AM

However, nearly two points of that growth is still in inventory expansion rather than final sales:

So they count GDP the same way they count enrollees in Obamacare?

Happy Nomad on December 20, 2013 at 10:40 AM

Should start trickling down any minute now. Yup. Just keep working and waiting. Wage increases are definitely going to come along. Its inevitable right? Just be patient.

libfreeordie on December 20, 2013 at 10:33 AM

Agreed. What we should do is legalize 20 million low-skill people which will provide trickle-UP benefits.

Bark should just order this done, I mean the guy has the authority to grant waivers and delays to the federal law of DeathCare, certainly he has the authority to grant amnesty.

Bishop on December 20, 2013 at 10:41 AM

libfreeordie on December 20, 2013 at 10:33 AM

Yet one more example of your failure to grasp (fill in the blank)…

Yes, class, the correct answer this time is economics!

dpduq on December 20, 2013 at 10:41 AM

Should start trickling down any minute now. Yup. Just keep working and waiting. Wage increases are definitely going to come along. Its inevitable right? Just be patient.

libfreeordie on December 20, 2013 at 10:33 AM

Be sure to let us know when trickle-down redistributive socialism works.

Oh, wait, that’s how you make your living.

gwelf on December 20, 2013 at 10:41 AM

This will be the first question from Julie of AP to dear leader

cmsinaz on December 20, 2013 at 10:42 AM

So they count GDP the same way they count enrollees in Obamacare?

Happy Nomad on December 20, 2013 at 10:40 AM

In a manner of speaking, yes, though they do discount the GDP when/if the inventory levels decrease.

Steve Eggleston on December 20, 2013 at 10:42 AM

I see libfreeordie has chosen this thread to first showoff his monumental ignorance today.

gwelf on December 20, 2013 at 10:43 AM

I’m not going to criticize a top line 4.1. Yes, there are details that make the 4.1 look soft, and give you reason to be look to optimistic projections for 2014 with a degree of skepticism. But, I thought it was ridiculous for libs to criticize a Bush UE number of 5.5. I’m not going to fall into the same type of trap.

Does that mean I’m going to leap for joy and go buy a new Escalade, because I’m sure my salary will be going up enough to justify it?

Err…no.

Chris of Rights on December 20, 2013 at 10:45 AM

Under a communist? Weird…..

libfreeordie on December 20, 2013 at 10:33 AM

That sequester is gonna destroy us.

There’s a silly debate under way about who bears responsibility for the sequester, which almost everyone now agrees was a really bad idea… And, as Janet Yellen, the vice chairwoman of the Federal Reserve, recently emphasized, one main reason for the sluggish recovery is that government spending has been far weaker in this business cycle than in the past. We should be spending more, not less, until we’re close to full employment; the sequester is exactly what the doctor didn’t order. -Krugman

mankai on December 20, 2013 at 10:47 AM

“The WSJ is also optimistic”

I’m tentative on that one:

In the years after the 2008 crash, it seemed they had a subtle bias in prematurely trying to identify indicators of ‘green shoots’ in various non-editorial articles. And all were failures to launch. Not an indictment, but I began to wonder if they have an inherent conflict of interest with those they cover: Wall Street.

Tsar of Earth on December 20, 2013 at 10:47 AM

I see libfreeordie has chosen this thread to first showoff his monumental ignorance today.

gwelf on December 20, 2013 at 10:43 AM

He just careens from trap to trap.

Steve Eggleston on December 20, 2013 at 10:47 AM

So when they ‘adjust’ it down to 2% in 4 months, will anyone notice?

BigWyo on December 20, 2013 at 10:47 AM

He just careens from trap to trap.

Steve Eggleston on December 20, 2013 at 10:47 AM

He’s got a gift for it.

gwelf on December 20, 2013 at 10:50 AM

Should start trickling down any minute now. Yup. Just keep working and waiting. Wage increases are definitely going to come along. Its inevitable right? Just be patient.

libfreeordie on December 20, 2013 at 10:33 AM

who’s going to break it to libfree that a man named Barack Obama has been president since 2008?

gwelf on December 20, 2013 at 10:52 AM

Should start trickling down any minute now. Yup. Just keep working and waiting. Wage increases are definitely going to come along. Its inevitable right? Just be patient.

libfreeordie on December 20, 2013 at 10:33 AM

I’m fairly certain you missed out on that whole trickle down
Process that played out in the 80′s….afterall, Minorities
didn’t increase their Living standards to Shiek of UAE status.

Perhaps in this ‘Season of gving” you could find a lowly wage
worker on the grounds of Academia.and ‘re-gift” part of your
salary to them….then they would truly know what a Wage increase
feels like under these Stellar economic conditions constructed
out of whole cloth that you are mezmerized by…

MERRY CHRISTMAS!

ToddPA on December 20, 2013 at 10:54 AM

I see libfreeordie has chosen this thread to first showoff his monumental ignorance today.

gwelf on December 20, 2013 at 10:43 AM

He’s been busy with the whirlwind surrounding his Pajama Boy picture taking up most his free time. He almost spilled his hot cocoa.

mankai on December 20, 2013 at 10:54 AM

Inventory does not make GDP more appealing. It sets up a downward revision in the next report.

Consumer spending has been depressed since people were forestalling purchases. Combined with price decreases and the fact consumers need to eventually make those purchases, we have the basis for this current report.

Folks can paint a smiley face on this single report. But the other circumstantial factors and measurements around it don’t tell a very good story.

The trend of revisions and downward movement will return in the next few reports. Especially as the affects of this Obamacare debacle start to be felt in the market. Remember- that’s 1/6th of the economy.

Marcus Traianus on December 20, 2013 at 10:55 AM

Under a communist? Weird…..

libfreeordie on December 20, 2013 at 10:33 AM

He’s not a communist. He’s a fascist socialist. Study harder.

Schadenfreude on December 20, 2013 at 10:56 AM

In the years after the 2008 crash, it seemed they had a subtle bias in prematurely trying to identify indicators of ‘green shoots’ in various non-editorial articles. And all were failures to launch. Not an indictment, but I began to wonder if they have an inherent conflict of interest with those they cover: Wall Street.

Tsar of Earth on December 20, 2013 at 10:47 AM

The WSJ’s direct-parent company, Dow Jones & Company, still has a small (roughly 2.4%) stake in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (and the other Dow Jones averages), and since 2011, the same small stake in the Standard & Poor’s indexes.

Steve Eggleston on December 20, 2013 at 10:57 AM

He’s been busy with the whirlwind surrounding his Pajama Boy picture taking up most his free time. He almost spilled his hot cocoa.

mankai on December 20, 2013 at 10:54 AM

Ha ha ha

gwelf on December 20, 2013 at 10:58 AM

Under a communist? Weird…..

libfreeordie on December 20, 2013 at 10:33 AM

It’s not that hard.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_domestic_product

GDP = C + I + G + ( X – M )

Note that ‘G’ is government spending which includes an 8% deficit.

So 4.2 up is really 3.8 DOWN

gh on December 20, 2013 at 11:00 AM

Curious… Does anyone trust the numbers coming out of this government? They mean nothing to me. Could’ve said is was anywhere from -2% to +10% and I’d still yawn.

BKeyser on December 20, 2013 at 11:01 AM

I see libfreeordie has chosen this thread to first showoff his monumental ignorance today.

gwelf on December 20, 2013 at 10:43 AM

Don’t underestimate him…he’s capable of showing off his monumental ignorance across several disciplines/topics.

HumpBot Salvation on December 20, 2013 at 11:03 AM

libfreeordie on December 20, 2013 at 10:33 AM

Don’t worry. We’re heading in one direction, state expansion and the “egalitarian ideal.”

The saddest part is that you don’t recognize that your side is winning. It simply can’t lose. Why not enjoy it?

happytobehere on December 20, 2013 at 11:05 AM

In short, 87% went to health care and gasoline. Not exactly good news.

Steve Eggleston on December 20, 2013 at 10:32 AM

Really? Healthcare? That segment of the market that was too big already?????

Of course, I’ve always said that the Affordable Care doesn’t really get affordable until the IPABs start and they start telling you they can’t afford your care. And they put you on the Grayson plan: die quickly.

But at least you won’t bankrupt yourself dying!

Axeman on December 20, 2013 at 11:05 AM

libfreeordie on December 20, 2013 at 10:33 AM

No, silly. Wage increases come from employers who are incapable of sustaining a profit due to over-regulation and government interference in the market. /

BKeyser on December 20, 2013 at 11:05 AM

I see libfreeorgan has chosen this thread to first showoff his monumental ignorance today.

gwelf on December 20, 2013 at 10:43 AM

just today?

KOOLAID2 on December 20, 2013 at 11:06 AM

BULLSH.. BULLSH.. BULLSH.. BULLSH.. BULLSH !!!

stenwin77 on December 20, 2013 at 11:09 AM

I’m starting to believe that we may finally be seeing a recovery. I hadn’t bought the earlier head fakes over the past 3 or so years, but I think we may finally growing for real.

We should be at 6% or better during a recovery, but at least this is starting to look like we’re pretty close to a normal level of expansion. We’re even seeing employment improving, though still far below what it should be in a health period of growth. Even the markets are not reacting badly to slightly reduced bond buying.

The big question for me is whether we will start to see inflation. If we do, things can turn South in a hurry. With 17 trillion of Federal debt, a modest uptick in the cost of money could be disastrous.

MJBrutus on December 20, 2013 at 11:11 AM

More than 10 million Americans have dropped out of the workforce since the recovery began in June 2009

…yes sure!…and there are ONLY 11 million illegals in this country……………same math!

KOOLAID2 on December 20, 2013 at 11:13 AM

Should start trickling down any minute now. Yup. Just keep working and waiting. Wage increases are definitely going to come along. Its inevitable right? Just be patient.

libfreeordie on December 20, 2013 at 10:33 AM

Gnats are geniuses, relative to your brain. Reality escapes you.

Schadenfreude on December 20, 2013 at 11:14 AM

60 million pairs of boots have been produced this year.

The Ministry of Truth

teacherman on December 20, 2013 at 11:14 AM

I don’t believe anything coming out of the Obama administration. Credibility is like virginity…once you lose it, it’s gone forever.

cajunpatriot on December 20, 2013 at 11:14 AM

I’m looking forward to the real economic uptick after the holidays when all that stock which didn’t sell is clearance-priced simply to get rid of it.

Nothing says “vibrant economy” like selling things at a loss.

Bishop on December 20, 2013 at 11:15 AM

KOOLAID2 on December 20, 2013 at 11:13 AM

An awful lot of people are “marginally attached” to the workforce and so don’t appear in that 10 million number. Such as part timers and freelance employees.

MJBrutus on December 20, 2013 at 11:15 AM

The next pajama-boy will be liblikeaslave, in diapers. They need more diversity.

Schadenfreude on December 20, 2013 at 11:16 AM

Recovery Spring is just around the corner. /s

Buck_Nekkid on December 20, 2013 at 11:16 AM

LIVE ON NOW:

Tweets All / No replies

Reuters Live ‏@ReutersLive 5m

Happening Now: U.S. Senate holds test vote on the nomination of Janet Yellen to head the Federal Reserve http://reut.rs/PoliticsLive
===============================================================

http://live.reuters.com/Event/Politics

canopfor on December 20, 2013 at 11:17 AM

Curious… Does anyone trust the numbers coming out of this government? They mean nothing to me. Could’ve said is was anywhere from -2% to +10% and I’d still yawn.

BKeyser on December 20, 2013 at 11:01 AM

This is the same administration who’s people cooked the books on the unemplyment rate right before the 2012 election to get it under 8%. So do I trust these numbers? He!! no.

iurockhead on December 20, 2013 at 11:17 AM

Should start trickling down any minute now. Yup. Just keep working and waiting. Wage increases are definitely going to come along. Its inevitable right? Just be patient.

libfreeordie on December 20, 2013 at 10:33 AM

Are you denying that growth is a necessary (but not sufficient) condition for the middle and lower classes to see wage increases? The bulk of the population can’t have more stuff if there isn’t more stuff to have.

NukeRidingCowboy on December 20, 2013 at 11:17 AM

Under a communist? Weird…..

libfreeordie on December 20, 2013 at 10:33 AM

Communist USSR went broke. That was their destruction.

portlandon on December 20, 2013 at 11:19 AM

Should start trickling down any minute now. Yup. Just keep working and waiting. Wage increases are definitely going to come along. Its inevitable right? Just be patient.

libfreeordie on December 20, 2013 at 10:33 AM

libfreeordie:

** UP TWINKLES **!!

canopfor on December 20, 2013 at 11:19 AM

libfreeordie on December 20, 2013 at 10:33 AM

You do realize that Obama is a liberal Democrat, don’t you? I ask, because they are his policies that you are criticizing. By working with the Fed to expand the money supply Obama is quite intentionally trying to create a “wealth effect”, which is a euphemism for “trickle down.” This is not my opinion, he and Bernanke have discussed their desire to create a wealth effect through asset price inflation.

MJBrutus on December 20, 2013 at 11:22 AM

Should start trickling down any minute now. Yup. Just keep working and waiting. Wage increases are definitely going to come along. Its inevitable right? Just be patient.

libfreeordie on December 20, 2013 at 10:33 AM

Are you denying that growth is a necessary (but not sufficient) condition for the middle and lower classes to see wage increases? The bulk of the population can’t have more stuff if there isn’t more stuff to have.

NukeRidingCowboy on December 20, 2013 at 11:17 AM

I suspect he does indeed deny that private sector growth is responsible for wealth creation. And deny that creating wealth is even possible without government micromanaging everybody’s daily life and confiscating wealth in order to distribute it ‘fairly’.

Fenris on December 20, 2013 at 11:28 AM

4.1% isn’t all that bad, but I hope it isn’t because of excess inventories.

Oops… too late.

McDonald’s Has To Get Rid Of 10 Million Pounds Of Mighty Wings: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/mcdonalds-rid-10-million-pounds-155800642.html

Turtle317 on December 20, 2013 at 11:28 AM

Nothing says “vibrant economy” like selling things at a loss.

Bishop on December 20, 2013 at 11:15 AM

woo hoo! 50% off Calico prints at Joann’s!

Dying economies rock!

. . . anyone trade a sandwich for a poem?

Axe on December 20, 2013 at 11:36 AM

The WSJ’s direct-parent company, Dow Jones & Company, still has a small (roughly 2.4%) stake in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (and the other Dow Jones averages), and since 2011, the same small stake in the Standard & Poor’s indexes.

Steve Eggleston on December 20, 2013 at 10:57 AM

Well, there it is. ty for that.

Tsar of Earth on December 20, 2013 at 11:53 AM

Curious… Does anyone trust the numbers coming out of this government?

BKeyser on December 20, 2013 at 11:01 AM

Why yes. Libfree and other similar indentured serfs trust their masters implicitly on everything. They might as well since they’re totally dependent on them for everything.

Oldnuke on December 20, 2013 at 12:01 PM

If you like your GDP number, you can keep it.

More BS from the gubmint liars

txdoc on December 20, 2013 at 12:17 PM

Is there a private entity that verifies these numbers?

astonerii on December 20, 2013 at 12:26 PM

I don’t believe anything coming out of the Obama administration. Credibility is like virginity…once you lose it, it’s gone forever.

cajunpatriot on December 20, 2013 at 11:14 AM

^^^Yep^^^ As far as I’m concerned any good news regarding the economy is in spite of this destructive administration, not because of it. Hey Libtardmustwhine…NEWS FLASH: THEY LIE! ALL. THE. TIME.

rottenrobbie on December 20, 2013 at 12:36 PM

From the WSJ above…

The higher estimate was driven largely by a revision in consumer spending, which Commerce now says grew at a 2% annual rate in the summer instead of the previously estimated 1.4%. The revision, now showing a slight pickup from the second quarter, reflected higher household spending across the board. Households stepped up purchases of big-ticket items such as refrigerators, daily items such as gasoline and on services, including healthcare.

The latest data shows growth in the quarter was driven by more than just a buildup in businesses’ inventories.

First, we need to remember that it’s only the editorial pages of the WSJ that can really be called ‘conservative leaning’ – the ‘news’ side of the paper differs very little in tone or analysis from the rest of the lapdog media.

Second, even as the WSJ demonstrates optimism, in particular in downplaying the effects of the inventory buildup, they neglect to mention another less optimistic effect of the consumer spending spurge in the 3rd Qtr…

Aggregate consumer debt increased in the third quarter by $127 billion, the largest increase seen since the first quarter of 2008.
As of September 30, 2013, total consumer indebtedness was $11.28 trillion, up by 1.1% from its level in the second quarter of 2013.

One of my concerns is after 5 years of a ‘recovery’ that isn’t really a recovery, and the refocus coming from the Administration towards ‘fairness’ in terms of consumer lending, the Administration and their allies are leaping into repeating many of the same mistaken policies that built the 2008 bubbles that lead to the 2008 fiscal crisis.

Is there a private entity that verifies these numbers?

astonerii on December 20, 2013 at 12:26 PM

Not that I am aware of. It hasn’t been needed before… But then we’ve not had an Administration as mendacious as this one – so flagrantly willing to lie, obfuscate, and cook the books for political purposes.

Athos on December 20, 2013 at 12:56 PM

28 GOP governors voted in after the communist took office in 2009. Let’s hope that fever spreads before it’s too late for states CA & IL. WI and NJ wised up.

mankai on December 20, 2013 at 12:56 PM

29 GOP governors…

mankai on December 20, 2013 at 12:56 PM

So much for that “sequester is killing economic growth” garbage. Wonder how Krugman is going to explain this??

rockmom on December 20, 2013 at 1:08 PM

…yes sure!…and there are ONLY 11 million illegals in this country……………same math!

KOOLAID2 on December 20, 2013 at 11:13 AM

Only 11 million? That’s so 2006 and even back then it was speculated that it was more like 20 million.

Remember in ’86 Ted “hic’ Kennedy underestimated how many illegals were in the US by 200%. If the GOPe does give amnesty next year, we’ll see 30 million come out of the shadows.

AH_C on December 20, 2013 at 1:15 PM

What happened to german industries in 1938 if they didn’t do what the Füehrer wanted? They were ‘independent’ too.

Obama is a fascist. Straight up. Anyone want to explain the difference between him and Mussolini? Except Mussolini had a modicum of competence?

Vanceone on December 20, 2013 at 11:25 AM

Schadenfreude on December 20, 2013 at 1:32 PM

Should start trickling down any minute now. Yup. Just keep working and waiting. Wage increases are definitely going to come along. Its inevitable right? Just be patient.

libfreeordie on December 20, 2013 at 10:33 AM

You really have no idea what you are talking about do you?

Zetterson on December 20, 2013 at 1:35 PM

And we’re supposed to believe “statistics” from the administration that brought us “If you like your insurance, you can keep your insurance…if you like your doctor, you can keep your doctor”?

olesparkie on December 20, 2013 at 3:14 PM

4.1% isn’t all that bad, but I hope it isn’t because of excess inventories.

Oops… too late.

McDonald’s Has To Get Rid Of 10 Million Pounds Of Mighty Wings: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/mcdonalds-rid-10-million-pounds-155800642.html

Turtle317 on December 20, 2013 at 11:28 AM

Could that be because Mighty (Awful) Wings were mighty awful?

Steve Eggleston on December 20, 2013 at 4:25 PM

ROFL. I’d love to be in the room when they cooked those numbers!

Murphy9 on December 20, 2013 at 4:44 PM

THIS gdp revision will find its way into the late Friday afternoon news dump on a very cold day in February.
Wait for it.

FlaMurph on December 20, 2013 at 5:03 PM

lets cook some more numbers before i go on my taxpayer funded 4 million dollar vacation with my skank mooching “wife”!

the Maobama administration motto: Keep torturing the data until it tells us what they want us to hear!

we’ve been hearing this propaganda BS for 5 freaking years

Note that the new figures were revised from the previous 3rd quarter estimates. Any such “do over” is always suspect, especially when the administration is experiencing low approval ratings:

“Earlier today, the Bureau of Economic Analysis surprised everyone by
announcing a final Q3 GDP growth of 4.1% compared to 3.6% in the first revision (and 2.8% originally), driven almost entirely by the bounce in Personal Consumption which rose 2.0% compared to estimates of 1.4%. As a result many are wondering just where this “revised” consumption came from. The answer is below: of the $15 billion revised increase in annualized spending, 60% was for healthcare, and another 27% was due to purchases of gasoline. On the flip side, the biggest revision detractors: transportation services and housing and utilities.”

“In other words, the BEA thought long and hard what it could revise
and decided on the following: in Q3 the US economy was revised to the strongest since 2011 because Americans, it would appear, were gassing up more to visit (and pay) their doctor, and then going to the movies.”

“When a month ago, the BEA released its first revision to Q3 GDP, the lament from even the biggest sycophants of data manipulation was that the bounce in estimated Q3 economic output from 2.84% to 3.61% was driven entirely by inventory accumulation, while personal consumption as a % of the final GDP number actually declined from 1.04% to 0.96%.Sequentially, the ever missing personal consumption
was revised up 2% vs the estimated up 1.4%, far above the highest estimate of 1.6%, and also the prior 1.4% print.”

“Which is why absolutely nobody was surprised to see the BEA
mysteriously keep virtually every other GDP component unchanged but boost Personal Consumption Expenditures from 0.96% of GDP to 1.36%. The end result is that the GDP reported in the first revision number has been boosted once again to a simply ludicrous 4.1%, smashing expectations of a 3.6% print. Putting this “revision” in perspective, the final GDP is now 45% higher than the first GDP estimate of 2.84%, and there is a whopping 1.5% delta between the first and final revision, which in our record books is the biggest revision on record.”

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/

sidewinder22 on December 20, 2013 at 11:12 PM