Open thread: House to vote on Boehner/Ryan budget deal soon; Update: 332-94; Update: Boehner votes yes

posted at 5:05 pm on December 12, 2013 by Allahpundit

Stupid me, I thought there was a tiny chance that the grassroots backlash to the bill early yesterday would make today’s vote a cliffhanger. Nope:

After conducting a series of closed-door briefings and polling members during a late-afternoon vote, GOP leadership aides confidently predicted that the deal struck between House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) and Senate Budget Committee Chairman Patty Murray (D-Wash.) would sail through the House when it comes to a vote Thursday.

The moment seemed to mark a potentially significant shift by House Republicans away from the uncompromising confrontation of recent years and toward a determined era of more functional governance. After multiple standoffs and threatened defaults and one actual shutdown, polls show that the Republican brand has been badly damaged among voters, and even some of the most conservative Republicans said they were ready for a breather.

“That’s the only reason” to vote for the budget deal — “to calm things down,” said Rep. Cynthia M. Lummis (R-Wyo.), who said she was undecided about the measure. “To reset the debate is a great way to describe it.”

That’s one of the mysteries of today’s vote: Is it a harbinger of a more sustained turn towards centrism or a low-stakes sui generis vote to get out of town before Christmas? The other mystery is how many Republicans will end up voting for it. Pelosi’s backing the bill on the theory that it’s time to — no joke — “embrace the suck,” which is as solid a motto for American government in the age of Hopenchange that you’ll ever hear. But the fact that House Democrats are on board doesn’t mean a majority of the GOP caucus will go along. Will they, or is this yet another violation of the Hastert Rule? The answer:

I’ll update with a link to the roll as soon as it’s up. While we wait, read Erick Erickson speculating that Boehner’s throwing roundhouses now at conservative PACs in order to prepare the ground for the new amnesty push to come next year. That is indeed coming, no doubt, but I don’t see how it benefits him or the centrists to take an “us vs. them” posture with righties before the primaries. Better to lie low for now, be conciliatory (“yeah, this deal’s bad, but things’ll be different in 2015”), and then sandbag border hawks with an amnesty deal after primary season is over. All he’s doing by ramming a bad budget deal down their throats now is giving them extra motivation to seek revenge. And there’d be no sweeter revenge than thwarting a sellout on amnesty.

Update: A big win for Boehner and Ryan. The vast majority of the caucus hung with them.

No roll yet, but it’s coming.

Update: As promised, here’s the roll.

Update: Good catch. Typically the Speaker doesn’t vote unless his/her vote is absolutely necessary.

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Murphy9 on December 13, 2013 at 1:23 PM

The sound an owl makes.

The band.

The Dr.

… is on first?

nottakingsides on December 13, 2013 at 5:37 PM

I thought the “strategy” was to keep voting in “electable” RINOs to office, and THEN control them with phone calls and threats or something. How’s that working out for ya?

nottakingsides on December 13, 2013 at 12:44 PM

ORCA happened: the final proof that “electable” non-conservatives are not even electable, because contrary to their advertising they are not even competent.

It’s not that they are dumb, but when it comes to representing the conservative base, they don’t have heart for the fight.

David Blue on December 13, 2013 at 7:45 PM

Anyone notice how the Democrats never insult their base in public?

alwaysfiredup on December 13, 2013 at 12:01 PM

And not only their base. They accept their crazies way out to the crazy end. These crazies are very useful to them, attacking conservatives with demented fury and pumping up the energy of the leftist coalition.

Anyone notice hoe the Republicans frequently insult their base in public?

alwaysfiredup on December 13, 2013 at 12:01 PM

And they are eager to pour scorn on anyone who is “racist”, “sexist” or as George W. Bush said of people opposing amnesty, “people who don’t want to do what’s right for America”. People who didn’t like the Dubai port deal? Bigots! People who didn’t think that Harriet Miers was right for the Supreme Court? Misogynists!

The reason there is a lack of energy on the conservative side, despite real grievances, is that the top “conservatives” use liberal attacks on the right all the time, and that’s dispiriting.

Anyone notice Democrats keep winning elections with terrible candidates and bad policies?

alwaysfiredup on December 13, 2013 at 12:01 PM

Why yes!

Huh. Wonder if that’s related…

alwaysfiredup on December 13, 2013 at 12:01 PM

John Boehner doesn’t.

David Blue on December 13, 2013 at 7:55 PM

In the scheme of things this was a paltry discussion about a few billion and the representatives just wanted to get out of town for the holidays.

It’s that simple: finally, an issue that partisans can agree on!

virgo on December 14, 2013 at 2:07 AM

The sequester cuts were already law. Republicans could just have gotten out of town for the holidays, no preliminaries required.

David Blue on December 14, 2013 at 6:28 PM