Poll: Plurality of Americans oppose Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran

posted at 6:51 pm on December 9, 2013 by Allahpundit

This is consistent with O’s numbers being in the toilet on, well, everything, but whenever I see a poll on a subject as esoteric as this, I think of those Jimmy Kimmel man-on-the-street interviews where he gets people to opine on stuff that hasn’t actually happened. Lots of low-information voters out there, and relatively few of them are willing to cop to being one when put on the spot by a reporter or pollster.

How many people at your Thanksgiving dinner table could summarize the Geneva deal with Iran in, say, three sentences? QED.

pew

Wait a sec. Less than three weeks ago, CNN found 56 percent in favor of the deal. What gives? Three possibilities. One: Stuff that’s happened in the interim, like Iran challenging the White House’s interpretation of the agreement and both parties in Congress rattling their sabers about new sanctions, have soured opinion. I’m skeptical about that, though, just because it would mean the public was paying close attention to post-deal political maneuvers. But why would they do that? Even in Pew’s poll, only 24 percent say they’ve read “a lot” about the deal. They barely pay attention to Afghanistan anymore. They’re not hanging on Steny Hoyer’s every word, I promise you, especially during the holidays.

Two: Maybe it’s a function of the dip in Obama’s popularity generally. His favorable rating sank after the “if you like your plan” lie blew up in the media. His job approval has inched upward in the most recent polls, but he’s still not where he was at just a month ago in RCP’s poll average. At some point, the perception that he’s incompetent and a liar might have spread to the point where it’s affecting perceptions of everything he touches, including the Iran nuke deal. The problem with that theory, though, is that his disapproval on foreign policy specifically really hasn’t declined much since the deal was struck. It was the Syria “red line” fiasco in August that pushed him considerably lower in that metric and he’s bounced around -15 or so ever since. Not sure how that would explain 56 percent in favor of the Iran deal a month ago and 32 percent in favor in Pew’s poll now.

Three: Maybe it’s a simple case of how the question was worded. Check out the phrasing of CNN’s question compared to the phrasing of the Pew question above:

cnn

The Pew question is completely opaque on the details except for the magic word “Iran.” That’s what the Kimmel set is reacting to there, I think; they’ve heard we made a deal with Iran, they know Iran’s not trustworthy, ergo it’s a bad deal. The CNN question, on the other hand, has lots of detail, punctuated by the magical phrase “major restrictions on its nuclear program.” To the Kimmel set, that sounds pretty good! Way to go, Barack. For purposes of the poll, whether the terms of the deal really do represent a major restriction is almost beside the point. Remember, according to nuke experts, Geneva’s requirement that Iran enrich uranium to only low levels of purity would add just two months to their bombmaking process if/when they decided they wanted a nuclear weapon. It’s not a major restriction, it’s a so-called “confidence-building measure” designed to see if Iran will keep up its end of the bargain for six months while a comprehensive deal is negotiated. But if you’re a pollster and you frame it as a big win, don’t be surprised if people get excited about it.

I’ll leave you with this, from an interview with Iran’s foreign minister, as a little taste of things to come. Until Obama gives Democrats a reason to stick with him on yet another tricky, unpopular position, why would they?

Q: What happens if Congress imposes new sanctions, even if they don’t go into effect for six months?

A: The entire deal is dead. We do not like to negotiate under duress. And if Congress adopts sanctions, it shows lack of seriousness and lack of a desire to achieve a resolution on the part of the United States. I know the domestic complications and various issues inside the United States, but for me that is no justification. I have a parliament. My parliament can also adopt various legislation that can go into effect if negotiations fail. But if we start doing that, I don’t think that we will be getting anywhere. Now we have tried to ask our members of parliament to avoid that. We may not succeed. The U.S. government may not succeed. If we don’t try, then we can’t expect the other side to accept that we are serious about the process.


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75% of American’s don’t even know where Iran is…..

#pollmeaningless

#derp

PappyD61 on December 9, 2013 at 6:54 PM

. . . However, looking at education, 48% of those with post-graduate degrees approve of the deal while 37% disapprove. College graduates are divided (41% approve, 38% disapprove), while those with less education on balance disapprove of the agreement.

?

Axe on December 9, 2013 at 6:56 PM

75% of American’s don’t even know where Iran is…..

#pollmeaningless

#derp

PappyD61 on December 9, 2013 at 6:54 PM

^ Agree with that general sentiment.

Axe on December 9, 2013 at 6:57 PM

Skip the turgid analysis. The President is the Lying Sack of America and the people know it. People have no reason to believe that he has the country’s interests at heart.

Mason on December 9, 2013 at 7:04 PM

oba-mao is a total dipsh*t.

ultracon on December 9, 2013 at 7:05 PM

who was the troll who puked all over this blog claiming that the public loved this deal?

22044 on December 9, 2013 at 7:06 PM

I suppose it does not help Obama that Rouhani has now gone on Iran national TV 3 times and called Obama a credulous, gullible halfwit.

pat on December 9, 2013 at 7:17 PM

How many people at your Thanksgiving dinner table could summarize the Geneva deal with Iran in, say, three sentences? QED.

Just one. My 18-month-old niece recently learned how to give a raspberry. I defy anybody to summarize the Geneva deal more succinctly.

Seriously, there are some issues that most people are too low information for polling to really capture anything but general sentiment. The deal with Iran is one of those issues. More importantly, I haven’t heard one pundit say this deal was a good thing and it appears that Congress is about to go ahead with a new sanctions bill that has bipartisan support.

Happy Nomad on December 9, 2013 at 7:17 PM

I’ll leave you with this, from an interview with Iran’s foreign minister, as a little taste of things to come. Until Obama gives Democrats a reason to stick with him on yet another tricky, unpopular position, why would they?

Q: What happens if Congress imposes new sanctions, even if they don’t go into effect for six months?
==============================

And, the Liberals are going to trust the Persians, who are snakes,
biding there time, for a US 50′s ManHatten Projects, tucked away
safely under mountians!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

canopfor on December 9, 2013 at 7:18 PM

I suppose it does not help Obama that Rouhani has now gone on Iran national TV 3 times and called Obama a credulous, gullible halfwit.

pat on December 9, 2013 at 7:17 PM

Yeah, in the meantime the WaPo is speculating how long it will be before Iran is back in their old embassy on Mass. Ave.

Happy Nomad on December 9, 2013 at 7:18 PM

And after the PersianIslamicGoons get there way with Nukes,
they then want to call the shots in OPEC:

Iran to reassert authority at OPEC after nuclear deal

By Peg Mackey and Alex Lawler
VIENNA Mon Dec 2, 2013 11:08am GMT
***********************************

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/12/02/us-opec-iran-idUKBRE9B109N20131202

canopfor on December 9, 2013 at 7:23 PM

75% of American’s don’t even know where Iran is…..

PappyD61 on December 9, 2013 at 6:54 PM

75% of Americans don’t even know where Terre Haute is located let alone Tehran.

Happy Nomad on December 9, 2013 at 7:23 PM

If the Iranian foreign minister says “the entire deal is dead” if Congress imposes new sanctions, that’s a GREAT reason for Congress to impose new sanctions.

Steve Z on December 9, 2013 at 7:28 PM

I daresay a plurality of Americans don’t trust O on anything, but we’ve got him for 3 more looong, miserable years!

SMACKRUNNER on December 9, 2013 at 7:29 PM

75% of Americans think Iran is a song recorded by A Flock of Seagulls.

iceman1960 on December 9, 2013 at 7:33 PM

If the Iranian foreign minister says “the entire deal is dead” if Congress imposes new sanctions, that’s a GREAT reason for Congress to impose new sanctions.

Steve Z on December 9, 2013 at 7:28 PM

Steve Z: Agreed:0

canopfor on December 9, 2013 at 7:40 PM

Since Obama was inaugurated I would guess that a plurality of Americans have opposed almost all of his major policies. That hasn’t stopped him yet.

The key is whether or not the Senate Dems grasp that they should panic.

INC on December 9, 2013 at 7:41 PM

Obama~ Dimwit Drama Queen of the Caliphate Dream.

profitsbeard on December 9, 2013 at 7:41 PM

. . However, looking at education, 48% of those with post-graduate degrees approve of the deal while 37% disapprove. College graduates are divided (41% approve, 38% disapprove), while those with less education on balance disapprove of the agreement.

?

Axe on December 9, 2013 at 6:56 PM

Post-grads have been in academia too long, and their discernment and moral sense has turned to mush.

More college grads have resisted brainwashing.

Americans who have little exposure to Leftist profs retain the highest degree of common sense and understanding.

INC on December 9, 2013 at 7:43 PM

How about we consider that Obama went on television to announce this great new deal with Iran, and later people found out there really isn’t a deal, just a framework for a future deal? Just one more misrepresentation by the president. People may be catching on.

BKeyser on December 9, 2013 at 7:45 PM

The people who have a fistful of degrees on both my side of the family and my husband’s are Obama supporters.

INC on December 9, 2013 at 7:46 PM

Lets see… 25% undecided and a breakout of 4:3 against for those who have a clue. If that holds as a general reaction, then things are going south on the old Iran deal.

Now if you have a more foggy question about generalities, and put a feel-good spin on it, you can add the LIV 25% to the loser of 4:3 and get about the same.

Hmmm…

How about a bit more in the way of info sent to the LIVs?

Cluebats, maybe.

ajacksonian on December 9, 2013 at 7:47 PM

The answers always depend on how the question is asked.

MT on December 9, 2013 at 7:56 PM

Too bad we don’t have, oh, a POLICY to work from instead of polls.

But then Liberals…hubris personified.

ProfShadow on December 9, 2013 at 8:10 PM

So a “plurality” of citizens are smarter than King Barack. Who knew? Evidently they are also smarter than the Sec of State.

GarandFan on December 9, 2013 at 8:16 PM

Poll: Plurality of Americans oppose Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran

That’s nice.

By the way, I’d like to see a poll of how many Americans can even find Iran on a map.

Dr. ZhivBlago on December 9, 2013 at 8:47 PM

By the way, I’d like to see a poll of how many Americans can even find Iran on a map.

Dr. ZhivBlago on December 9, 2013 at 8:47 PM

Iran- east of Iraq, south of Turkistan, west of Afghanistan. (As they would say on Monty Python.)

I suspect a lot of the disapproval is based on the increasing perception that The One is not just anti-American, or even just anti-Western, but that as a result he has a cultish faith in the “innate goodness” of anyone who openly hates both. I.E. “They despise the evil West, so therefore they must be good!

This means that people see this “deal” and think,

He doesn’t trust us to handle our own health insurance, but he trusts these unstable fanatics not to nuke anyone they define as an “infidel”.

No, I don’t think so.

It comes back to a lot of people actually looking closely at The One and his dogmas, many of them for the very first time.

And finally realizing just what he’s really all about. And how little his perceptions of “reality” have to do with the real thing.

clear ether

eon

eon on December 9, 2013 at 9:02 PM

75% of American’s don’t even know where Iran is…..

#pollmeaningless

#derp

PappyD61 on December 9, 2013 at 6:54 PM

47% of Americans don’t know where THEY are.

riddick on December 9, 2013 at 9:25 PM

Just look at Obama’s picture and say to yourself “would I buy a used car from this man?” Then why in the hell would I trust him on Iran?

Herb on December 10, 2013 at 9:25 AM