Gallup: 52% want to scale back or repeal ObamaCare — down from 57% in early 2011; Update: Young adults expect law to be repealed

posted at 2:41 pm on December 6, 2013 by Allahpundit

Sorry to accentuate the negative in the headline. With O-Care in constant meltdown since early October, I get so few chances these days to indulge my inner eeyore.

Seriously, though, an interesting poll. After nine weeks of wreck and ruin, the law’s favorable rating is in the toilet. You would think that would mean there’d be many more people calling for it to be scaled back today than there were nearly three years ago. Not so:

g1

I think both the January 2011 and October 2013 numbers are outliers. The former was compiled just two months after the big red midterm wave that handed the House back to Republicans in 2010. The country was disgruntled at Hopenchange, mainly because of ObamaCare but also because of economic stagnation and some basic disillusionment with the Obama hype, and so it could be that they were more likely than usual at the time to say they wanted his signature “achievement” rolled back. On the flip side, after the website blew up on the launch pad last month, Democrats and left-leaning independents circled the wagons around Obama. That’s why the plurality that prefers expanding it to keeping it as it is momentarily shifted in October before returning to the status quo this month. Under normal circumstances, lefties who strongly support a big government role in health care want to see the law expanded. But when O-Care debuted and promptly fell on its face, some of them shifted to a siege mentality and decided it was super keen as-is. Either that, or the website’s horrendous launch momentarily shook even liberals’ faith in the idea of expanding the state’s role in health care. Now that things have stabilized a llttle, they feel comfortable in November re-embracing their dreams of single-payer.

Like I say, interesting. But that still doesn’t explain why we’re not seeing more support for repeal now, in the wake of the Healthcare.gov apocalypse. Especially among independents:

g2

What’s happening with Dems there is no mystery. Like I said, some of them are emerging from siege mode in October and others have simply given up on ObamaCare working as designed in its current form after a second month of trauma. Indies are a puzzle, though, especially since independents as a self-identified group have trended a bit redder over the last few years as some tea partiers have fled the GOP. Admittedly, we’re talking about only a few points shifting, but with the collapse in O-Care’s favorable rating this month I expected more polarization within the group — a small surge among left-leaning independents abandoning the law as-is and calling for it to be expanded (which is what we see here) and a small surge among right-leaning indies calling for repeal or scaling back. We don’t see that, which makes this a rare and precious “good” poll on ObamaCare for Democrats. It may be that the baseline for partisan views on O-Care is so firmly cemented by now, after three and a half years of people reading and talking about it, that it’ll take a second order of logistical nightmares and Obama lies to move the numbers further downward. Could that happen, realistically? Could ObamaCare’s press, which is already in near ruins, actually disintegrate further, to the point where even indies throw up their hands and say “repeal it”?

Yeah, maybe:

In fact, health care experts say, it’s not out of the question that the Obama administration could face the worst-case scenario on Jan. 1: the number of uninsured Americans actually goes up

[B]y the best insurance industry estimates, as many as 4 million to 5 million people have gotten cancellation notices because their individual health insurance doesn’t meet Obamacare standards — meaning they’ll have to replace their health coverage. Even if the new, post-repair rate of signups continued at the faster pace, HealthCare.gov — the enrollment site that covers 36 states — would still be lucky to enroll 450,000 people by the end of December…

“The arithmetic says that if they cannot, for mechanical reasons, sign up at least enough to replace those who lost individual coverage we will end up with a net increase in the number of uninsured,” said Mark Pauly, a conservative health economist at the University of Pennsylvania.

I hadn’t thought of that, just because there are so many different avenues for people whose plans have been canceled to scramble for coverage before January 1st — signing up through the website (good luck), calling their insurer and picking a new plan (or re-enrolling in an un-canceled plan), or being automatically enrolled by the insurer in a new plan to avert a lapse in coverage. Some fraction of that 4-5 million will fall through the cracks, though, and some other fraction will try to sign up but stumble over one of the hoops the law makes them jump through. Is it possible that there’ll only be 900,000 new enrollees on January 1st versus a million people with cancellation notices who are still in limbo? If it happens, how do Democrats spin that as a vindication of “universal” health care? And even if it doesn’t, what happens next January after the employer mandate takes effect and tens of millions more people see their employer-provided coverage dropped? The number of newly uninsured probably won’t overtake the number of newly insured next month, but next year? We may not have seen the worst of the polling yet.

Update: A self-fulfilling prophesy?

More than half of 18-to-29-year-olds who were surveyed in the most recent United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll say it is likely the law will be repealed in 2014, even though the chances of that actually occurring are remote.

According to the poll, 18 percent of respondents in this age group said it was “very likely” Obamacare would be repealed by Congress next year, while 33 percent said it was “somewhat likely” the law would be done away with. The survey has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.

That has real-world implications. The administration has relentlessly wooed these so-called young invincibles—young, healthy Americans—to sign up to purchase health insurance through online exchanges. Those consumers, who tend to use health care services less frequently, are needed to subsidize the cost of treating older, sicker ones. Without their participation in large numbers (the target for next year is 40 percent of all new enrollees), premium rates for consumers in the exchanges could rise.

If they don’t think the law will be there for long, will they bother signing up next year?


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Like all things Obama, there is still a populist dogma that coerces people into feeling that they’re doing something wrong by opposing Obama’s projects.

I believe that effect is slowly eroding though and once his projects start hitting people’s pocketbooks it’s going to be OK to want to repeal Obamacare.

hisfrogness on December 6, 2013 at 2:47 PM

Whatever happened to if you hate your healthcare law you can dump your healthcare law. Period. ?

I think the next poll that really matters will come in January when people find out that they have no coverage, their premiums are astronomic, or they’ve managed to enroll their cocker spaniel.

Seriously, when this starts slapping people in their personal lives, the polls will not show a sudden adoration of Obamacare.

Happy Nomad on December 6, 2013 at 2:47 PM

Canadian Crack Head Slams Obamacare:

Ford said that in Canada, the country “can’t afford” their universal health coverage.

“What you guys are doing down there, I just, I can’t get my head around it because it’s costing a fortune, and I don’t know where you guys are going to find the money, except the taxpayers pockets,” he continued.

“And I think people are taxed to death, and I don’t mind two-tier healthcare; if you want healthcare, you pay for it. I understand that. And we have general healthcare up here, or OHIP we call it, but, you know, it’s gonna cost a fortune for you guys to put in this ObamaCare, and I just don’t see how the people are going to be able to afford it, to tell you the truth.”

Ford added that he personally liked Obama but that he did not “like his politics.”

anotherJoe on December 6, 2013 at 2:49 PM

I believe that effect is slowly eroding though and once his projects start hitting people’s pocketbooks it’s going to be OK to want to repeal Obamacare.

hisfrogness on December 6, 2013 at 2:47 PM

It’s one thing to support Obama when the idea is the hypothetical looting of “the rich” to pay for some parasitic program. It is another thing when Obama comes out after your health insurance plan.

Happy Nomad on December 6, 2013 at 2:49 PM

Seriously man you need to stop obsessing with polls and few points up and down mean absolutely nothing…

mnjg on December 6, 2013 at 2:50 PM

We will be stuck at this level of support for repeal until the GOP develops and pushes a viable alternative. People here don’t want to hear that, but that’s the way it is.

Mark1971 on December 6, 2013 at 2:50 PM

Like I say, interesting. But that still doesn’t explain why we’re not seeing more support for repeal now, in the wake of the Healthcare.gov apocalypse.

It may be that the baseline for partisan views on O-Care is so firmly cemented by now, after three and a half years of people reading and talking about it, that it’ll take a second order of logistical nightmares and Obama lies to move the numbers further downward. Could that happen, realistically? Could ObamaCare’s press, which is already in near ruins, actually disintegrate further, to the point where even indies throw up their hands and say “repeal it”?

You answered your own question, AP. Not to minimize the people who’ve already been f’ed over by this law(that’s the job of the Democrat/media complex), but it is a small percentage of the country. For now. Obviously a year from now that won’t be the case once the employers start dumping coverage. And we still haven’t encountered the doctor shock yet(aside from the aforementioned
“small” number of Americans).

So it’s likely to only get worse from here on out in terms of the poll numbers. Obama’s only recourse at this point to stem the bleeding is to start throwing around money at different groups and constituents to keep them at bay(which reportedly he’s already preparing to do).

Doughboy on December 6, 2013 at 2:51 PM

Friday afternoon. Time for some tom foolery via a ballad.

Just for you RWM. George Thorogood and the Delaware Destroyers

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MLFsmJZlESs

ToddPA on December 6, 2013 at 2:52 PM

It wasn’t supposed to happen this quickly.

rogerb on December 6, 2013 at 2:55 PM

Update: Young adults expect law to be repealed

The same also voted for Santa Claus.
Feel the burn.

RovesChins on December 6, 2013 at 2:58 PM

We will be stuck at this level of support for repeal until the GOP develops and pushes a viable alternative. People here don’t want to hear that, but that’s the way it is.

Mark1971 on December 6, 2013 at 2:50 PM

Well no disrespect to the flakes out there, but they need to @#$% or get off the pot. If they want it repealed and replaced, then vote in people who will first repeal the damn thing. Even the low-information morons oughta know by now that the Democrats rammed this bill through and they refuse to get rid of it. Hell, Obama repeated this pledge just a couple days ago. Otherwise if they keep voting Democrat, they’re in favor of Obamacare. If that’s their stated position, fine. But otherwise I don’t wanna hear anymore complaining.

Doughboy on December 6, 2013 at 2:59 PM

I was in Mexico over Thanksgiving. We had a toxic spider bite scare and needed a doctor on the small island of Isla Mujeres.

We got a doctor to come to our hotel at 11pm, give a prescription which we sent a cab to pick up for us. We never left the hotel and the whole ordeal, prescriptions and all, cost about 100 bucks.

so I looked into it. Mexico is a 2-tier system (3, actually, if you count the system devoted to public employees). The government runs its own hospitals so there’s universal coverage.

The other system is a free market system. The government completely stays out of it with the exception of a law that prevents people from suing their doctors for malpractice.

Something to consider.

hisfrogness on December 6, 2013 at 2:59 PM

Those that have lost their insurance plans aren’t the only people who have been screwed. Insurance premiums, deductibles, and co-pays are going up for everyone. Of course, some will receive subsidies, but not in the numbers that the Democrats claimed. For example, in many urban centres, young adults, who earn more than $26,000, will not qualify for a dime. Further, with the inevitable earthquake when the EM goes into effect next year, we are likely to see a lot of ‘Well, I feel sorry that my neighbour lost his policy, but I’m just fine, thank you very much’ people sour on the entire notion of Obamacare.

Resist We Much on December 6, 2013 at 2:59 PM

And now the official Theme of this President:

“It wasn’t me”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M1i32RiGgwY

ToddPA on December 6, 2013 at 3:00 PM

I was in Mexico over Thanksgiving. We had a toxic spider bite scare and needed a doctor on the small island of Isla Mujeres.

Island of Women? I’m intrigued.

Mark1971 on December 6, 2013 at 3:01 PM

ToddPA on December 6, 2013 at 2:52 PM

lolz

Resist We Much on December 6, 2013 at 3:02 PM

Further, with the inevitable earthquake when the EM goes into effect next year, we are likely to see a lot of ‘Well, I feel sorry that my neighbour lost his policy, but I’m just fine, thank you very much’ people sour on the entire notion of Obamacare.

Resist We Much on December 6, 2013 at 2:59 PM

Agreed on this…
It will be epic..bank on it.

bazil9 on December 6, 2013 at 3:05 PM

Meanwhile, your oaf in chief, being….an oaf.

Last summer on his $100 million family tour of Africa, Barack Obama hoped for a priceless photo op with Nelson Mandela, the ailing freedom pioneer who went from prison cell to the presidency of South Africa in one of modern history’s more remarkable national — and personal — transformations.

Mandela’s family suggested that wasn’t going to happen
.

What a laughing stock of the world!

Schadenfreude on December 6, 2013 at 3:05 PM

But that still doesn’t explain why we’re not seeing more support for repeal now, in the wake of the Healthcare.gov apocalypse.

That is because the apocalpyse has not yet happened. The big stuff is yet to come:

1) People who think they’re covered under the exchanges will turn out not to be covered because they didn’t pay or their app didn’t go through or whatever. Starts Jan 1.

2) People figure out they’ve lost their doctor and/or hospital

3) The prescription deductibles (which are huge, and separate from the regular deductibles) hit the news (this is a big one)

4) The group/employer cancellations start going out in 2014 (this is the biggest one)

5) People start actually paying their new premiums on a regular basis and, assuming they can afford them at all, have no money to spend on anything else. Welcome to the new, extra crappy Obama economy.

And much, much more. It will just get bigger and bigger, through next November and 2015 and 2016.

Missy on December 6, 2013 at 3:06 PM

When we talk about “replace” we mean replace with free market reforms. Before Obamacare was passed health care was already over-regulated with too much govt as it was. Replace with free market reforms that will make health care more efficient and cheaper.

anotherJoe on December 6, 2013 at 3:07 PM

Stupid people..it has been proven when the pollster uses ‘affordable care act’ people want it, however, when ‘obamacare’ is used ppl don’t.

My guess is more than not want this thing repealed…it will collapse on it’s own.

Liberalism does not work.

Redford on December 6, 2013 at 3:08 PM

More than half of 18-to-29-year-olds who were surveyed in the most recent United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll say it is likely the law will be repealed in 2014

Won’t they be surprised when the electorate get’s repealed instead.

kcewa on December 6, 2013 at 3:08 PM

Missy on December 6, 2013 at 3:06 PM

Nice timeline on the storm path.
It will be a Cat 5…

bazil9 on December 6, 2013 at 3:11 PM

Missy on December 6, 2013 at 3:06 PM

Nice timeline on the storm path.
It will be a Cat 5…

bazil9 on December 6, 2013 at 3:11 PM

ehhh…we’ll just ramp up QE, raise the minimum wage to $20/hr and everything will be fixed. What could possibly go wrong?

hisfrogness on December 6, 2013 at 3:13 PM

OT, watch this traitorous swine.

Schadenfreude on December 6, 2013 at 3:15 PM

Obama: I’m Not Incompetent, Government Is

Resist We Much on December 6, 2013 at 3:15 PM

Indeed, and the Rs are, and the fact that I’m not a Chinese dictator, yet….

Schadenfreude on December 6, 2013 at 3:17 PM

Ugh. Just saw a post on my fb feed from a lib friend directly from the OFA page, showing a kid who was born ill who’s doing much better.

Glad the kid’s doing well, but Hello? McFly? O-No-Care gets no credit! Grrr!!!

22044 on December 6, 2013 at 3:18 PM

The increase is a result of the millions of people who’s insurance is cancelled under Obamacare. They have nowhere to go, so they want Obamacare to succeed.

csdeven on December 6, 2013 at 3:19 PM

Obama: I’m Not Incompetent, Government Is

Resist We Much on December 6, 2013 at 3:15 PM

Obama became a conservative tea party patriot. /

22044 on December 6, 2013 at 3:19 PM

Hah, Goebbels can’t take it any longer.

Schadenfreude on December 6, 2013 at 3:19 PM

Like I say, interesting. But that still doesn’t explain why we’re not seeing more support for repeal now,

You don’t see more support for repeal because there is no one who can be counted on to actually push for repeal. The GOP, under the crybaby Boner, is nothing but a shield for Barky and his anti-American health scare, so people aren’t interested in entertaining notions that the Weeping Boner and the turtle in the Senate are doing their best to avoid. Support for repeal is being eroded by attrition – the attrition of having to fight the Vichy Republicans along with the insane democrats.

It doesn’t matter, anyway. America is toast. Has been for a while. The Constitutional Republic is long gone and will not be restored by any elections. It will take the establishment of a new nation in order to have an American Constitutional Republic back in existence on Earth.

ThePrimordialOrderedPair on December 6, 2013 at 3:20 PM

Hah, Goebbels can’t take it any longer.

Schadenfreude on December 6, 2013 at 3:19 PM

Its the Unaffordable No-Care Act. Until it’s the O-No-Care Act.

Come on libbies. Make up your mind.

22044 on December 6, 2013 at 3:21 PM

Just a note that one possible reason the “Independent” cohort is not looking more aggressively for repeal is that O-care’s meltdown may have nudged some members of that cohort into being self-identified Republicans.

FBones on December 6, 2013 at 3:22 PM

My guess is more than not want this thing repealed…it will collapse on it’s own.

Liberalism does not work.

Redford on December 6, 2013 at 3:08 PM

Leftism doesn’t work, but it never just collapses on its own – by itself. It always takes out anything decent or productive, first. Only then, when there’s almost nothing of value left do leftist implementations collapse.

BarkyCare will collapse, eventually, but not until it’s destroyed every industry even tangentially associated with health care or health insurance. Only when there are piles of smoking rubble around it (and lots of “corpse-men”) will BarkyCare submit to Nature’s death panel.

ThePrimordialOrderedPair on December 6, 2013 at 3:24 PM

Forget about the price tag…./

ted c on December 6, 2013 at 3:25 PM

Any current poll is basically meaningless because it no still hypothetical. When those people who are unlucky enough to get “New” coverage by Jan 1st discover that their doctors are no longer available or the hospital that they have used for many years is no longer in their network then we will see new numbers that reflect actual involvement with Obamacare. The people who do not get coverage right away will not suffer because they can always buy it at the last minute later. But the biggie is going to be the employer dump in 2014 that is going to F the pooch for Ocare.

inspectorudy on December 6, 2013 at 3:26 PM

Die already, old fools.

Schadenfreude on December 6, 2013 at 3:27 PM

If they’re waiting for a significant number of healthy 18-29 year olds to jump in and pay thousands of dollars for health care they’re going to wait a long time.

Most of 18-29 year olds don’t even think about it.

Those who have parents with insurance are covered til they’re 26.

Many of them aren’t working.

Most of the ones that are working make so little they wouldn’t pay full price anyway.

If they don’t get insurance-if they get sick they are usually so broke they’re covered by Medicaid, if not, they have no assets to go after, they declare bankruptcy, the medical debt is eraser (unlike school loans) and they start over.

Among the many reasons the ACA will not work as written. Repeal and Replace.

talkingpoints on December 6, 2013 at 3:28 PM

“Mandela’s dead and Obama’s alive!”

The War Planner on December 6, 2013 at 3:28 PM

Polls mean NOTHING.

He’s not running again, he has no effective political opposition and he has exec order power.

Let’s just hope he is willing to leave office.

PappyD61 on December 6, 2013 at 3:30 PM

Isla Mujeres.

hisfrogness on December 6, 2013 at 2:59 PM

A place I would LOVE to visit, mostly to swim with the whale sharks. Maybe you could write some about it in tonight’s QotD thread?

RushBaby on December 6, 2013 at 3:39 PM

FBones on December 6, 2013 at 3:22 PM

Cohorting is so yesterday. ;)

Sockpuppet Politic on December 6, 2013 at 3:40 PM

Obama praised Mandela for the cameras as “a man who took history in his hands, and bent the arc of the moral universe toward justice”

Chill out, Barack. You’re a cinch whenever Hallmark needs a new greeting card writer.

Does anyone know what “the arc of the moral universe” is?

BobMbx on December 6, 2013 at 3:55 PM

What a lot of people are missing is that it is really the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act.

That lie has been dropped all together.

herm2416 on December 6, 2013 at 4:04 PM

I was in Mexico over Thanksgiving. We had a toxic spider bite scare and needed a doctor on the small island of Isla Mujeres.

Cheap and good weed can be bought at the gift shops on Isla Mujeres.

oceansidecon on December 6, 2013 at 4:04 PM

How do these young people expect it to be repealed if when they get their ballot they just check everyone with a D after their name? They keep electing leftist democrats and then expect them to be repeal Obamacare? These are dumbest generation of Americans ever!!

Dollayo on December 6, 2013 at 4:12 PM

Sorry to accentuate the negative in the headline. With O-Care in constant meltdown since early October, I get so few chances these days to indulge my inner eeyore.

And what would we do without that?… ;-)

Hawkins1701 on December 6, 2013 at 4:39 PM

I do not much care for this poll because it uses the word “change”. Change can mean different things to different people and even though they couple it with the words “expand” and “scale back” it is still not enough to get a good handle on the real numbers. For example for the “expand / change” how many are for changing to a single payer and how many just want something like unions exempted.

This makes a difference because what really matters when their is no single majority opinion (50% above) is what coalition wins a 50% majority. Right now that is for ditching ObamaCare and replacing it with some health care reforms that were needed before ObamaCare messed things up even worse, in fact before Bush and his medicare drug expansion.

Probably something like:

(a) An insurance pool for those who have pre-existing conditions
(b) Tort reform
(c) Reducing patent times for drug companies to create more generic drug competition reducing prices. BTW for all those conservatives who hate this remember it is drug companies that overwhelming support democrats and are based in blue state and love themselves some crony capitalism.

(d) Tax breaks for medical costs
(e) Tax breaks for medical research
(f) Allow Americans to purchase drugs and medical procedures outside the country if cheaper.

Many others, you know a approach that gets to the heart of the matter…which is competition lowers costs, free market capitalism but not crony capitalism, and a understanding that is cheaper to help a few people like those who can’t get insurance because of pre-existing conditions rather than wait for progressives to exploit this problem to push their comprehensive nonsense on all Americans.

William Eaton on December 6, 2013 at 5:06 PM

Just became aware of a video which purports to show heckling of Obama over Obamacare, but Main Stream Media has refused to show it.

bloggless on December 6, 2013 at 5:13 PM

Polls mean NOTHING.

He’s not running again, he has no effective political opposition and he has exec order power.

Let’s just hope he is willing to leave office.

PappyD61 on December 6, 2013 at 3:30 PM

Polls do mean something in that they give other Dems a reason not to do his bidding. A weak, lame duck, unpopular President can’t get his party to do jack if it’s against their electoral interests to do so.

If Obamacare is as bad as we know it to be, and if Obama is utterly destroyed in the polls, then maybe, just maybe, enough Dems will go along with repeal and then a veto override in 2015 or 2016. They may feel it’s their only chance for party survival.

Missy on December 6, 2013 at 5:15 PM

Does anyone know what “the arc of the moral universe” is?

BobMbx on December 6, 2013 at 3:55 PM

It starts with God.

It ends with Marx.

ajacksonian on December 6, 2013 at 5:35 PM

New Steyn…

The Post-Work Economy

Resist We Much on December 6, 2013 at 5:56 PM

As a young adult I do not expect Obamacare to be repealed. Obamacare – along with all of the other ills of society – take something so beautiful, meaning the world we have, and ruin it in any number of ways – usually leftist and usually impossible to stop.

The Nerve on December 6, 2013 at 11:19 PM

If they don’t think the law will be there for long, will they bother signing up next year?

AP, was that rhetorical? The stats are already there. No, they aren’t bothering now and the sentiment is that they won’t start bothering to sign up.

They thought that voting the guy in was their only duty and that he would do marvellous things. He created quite a stink-bomb and the young voters just think “whatever!”, file their taxes, pay the $95 and whine about it (those that notice).

virgo on December 7, 2013 at 12:44 AM