Harry Reid: Let’s face it, Boehner’s going to cave on amnesty

posted at 10:31 am on December 5, 2013 by Allahpundit

And so, seven a half years after Hot Air launched, the day has come. Harry Reid is finally indisputably right about something.

“I think there’s going to be so much pressure on the House that they’ll have to pass it,” he said…

“We have a lot of these congressional districts, they don’t care because they don’t have people of color in their congressional districts,” Reid said. “They don’t care. But there are a number of them who do care. If the Republicans ever want to elect a Republican president again, they’re going to have to get right with the Hispanic and Asian community who by more than 70 percent voted for [President Barack] Obama last time.”…

“This is an issue that isn’t going to go away,” he said. “It’s here. We have 11 million people here who are not going to be sent back to their country of origin. They can’t do that. They can’t do it fiscally. They can’t do it physically. It’s nearly impossible.”…

Although a minority of Republicans would have to join with Democrats to pass immigration reform legislation containing a pathway to citizenship for people in the United States illegally, Reid said Boehner is “going to cave in.”

Mickey Kaus wonders: If Reid really wanted Boehner to cave, he wouldn’t be saying stuff like this, would he? All it’ll do is raise alarms among border hawks in the conservative base, which will make it harder for Boehner to act. Someone who sincerely wanted a compromise with the GOP on immigration rather than a cudgel to beat them with before the midterms would keep his mouth shut now. I don’t know, though — the fact that Boehner just hired McCain’s former immigration advisor says to me that he’s firmly committed to getting this done, sooner rather than later. Boehner’s play now, as Erick Erickson correctly predicts, is to wait until the deadline for primary challenges has passed early next year and then to spring a big new amnesty push on the public. Conservatives will be incensed, but who cares? After a year of horrible ObamaCare news, they’ll turn out for the GOP anyway next November to send Obama a message that America hates his boondoggle. The fact of the matter is that even if Obama’s job approval stays as pitiful as it is now and the economy continues to creep along with slow growth, the big GOP advantage at the polls next year might cost Democrats … just five House seats. There simply aren’t many purple districts left. The real danger to the Dems is in the Senate, and there are more than enough Republican amnesty shills there who aren’t facing voters next year to help Reid get some sort of House immigration bill through.

Between the relatively small stakes for the House in the midterms and the fact that he’ll have ObamaCare’s woes to exploit to shore up conservative support, Boehner probably figures that next year is his best chance to pass immigration reform. It might cost him his Speakership, but if you believe the rumors about his retirement, that might not matter to him. (If he can work out a grand bargain with Obama on deficit reduction to secure his “legacy,” who knows? He might throw in amnesty as a bonus and then ride off into the sunset.) Even if he wants to stay on, a sustained legislative effort to roll back pieces of O-Care might placate House tea partiers enough that they won’t end up ousting him after all. Republican business interests demand their amnesty, damn it, and they’ve been waiting at least six years. Like Reid says, he’ll cave. Why pretend otherwise, even if doing so would make it slightly easier for him to do so? Exit quotation from Mark Krikorian, writing about Boehner’s hire of McCain’s advisor: “This whole incident highlights the trust gap between conservatives and the Republican leadership. It’s not just that the party apparatchiks aren’t conservative — that almost goes without saying. The problem is that they often pretend to be conservative, especially at election time, and then sell out when it comes to making law.”

Update: I think this theory from the comments of why Reid said what he said is correct: “He’s judged conservatives won’t actually be able to stop Boehner, so he feels free to go ahead and do as much damage to Boehner as he can through this miserable process.”


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Secure the Border….No Amnesty!

“UN Nuclear Watchdog: Truck Carrying Radioactive Materials Stolen”

http://foxnewsinsider.com/2013/12/04/un-nuclear-watchdog-truck-carrying-radioactive-material-cobalt-60-stolen-mexico

workingclass artist on December 5, 2013 at 10:35 AM

“I think there’s going to be so much pressure on the House that they’ll have to pass it,” he said…

And with that Reid just made it certan that Boehner WON’T cave.

Unintended reverse psychology.

DethMetalCookieMonst on December 5, 2013 at 10:35 AM

Mickey Kaus wonders: If Reid really wanted Boehner to cave, he wouldn’t be saying stuff like this, would he? All it’ll do is raise alarms among border hawks in the conservative base, which will make it harder for Boehner to act.

He’s judged conservatives won’t actually be able to stop Boehner, so he feels free to go ahead and do as much damage to Boehner as he can through this miserable process.

Doomberg on December 5, 2013 at 10:35 AM

I wonder if this is just a sneaky attempt to get conservatives to primary sitting GOP Congresscritters. Reid’s probably hoping enough “Sharon Angles” win primaries over incumbents to give the dems a chance in the House.

Flange on December 5, 2013 at 10:35 AM

Squirrel!!

oldroy on December 5, 2013 at 10:36 AM

The people under Reid’s spell shrinks daily.

Akzed on December 5, 2013 at 10:37 AM

Cripe….Reid is right….dang it

cmsinaz on December 5, 2013 at 10:38 AM

Secure the Border…No Amnesty!

“Mexican drug cartels whose operatives once rarely ventured beyond the US border are dispatching some of their most trusted agents to live and work deep inside the United States – an emboldened presence that experts believe is meant to tighten their grip on the world’s most lucrative narcotics market and maximize profits.

If left unchecked, authorities say, the cartels’ move into the American interior could render the syndicates harder than ever to dislodge and pave the way for them to expand into other criminal enterprises such as prostitution, kidnapping-and-extortion rackets and money laundering….”

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/apr/01/mexican-drug-cartels-deeper-us

workingclass artist on December 5, 2013 at 10:38 AM

Predicting a Boehner cave is like predicting a sunrise: You might not get the timing exactly right, but you know it’s going to happen soon.

Wino on December 5, 2013 at 10:39 AM

And with that Reid just made it certan that Boehner WON’T cave.

Unintended reverse psychology.

DethMetalCookieMonst on December 5, 2013 at 10:35 AM

If Boehner was actually planning to fight amnesty, I’d agree this might add some steel to his spine, but Boehner’s been against us from the very start and cannot wait to pass legalization. He and the Republican leadership are salivating at the prospect.

Doomberg on December 5, 2013 at 10:41 AM

Pressure from whom?

I cannot get my mind around why GOP leadership thinks this is a good idea.

BuckeyeSam on December 5, 2013 at 10:41 AM

Secure the Border….No Amnesty!

“Talking about immigration reform raises several questions. Does it make us more secure? The border security provisions in the Senate bill don’t actually secure our border. A lot of grand claims, but so many purposeful loopholes and waivers ensure they will have marginal effect. In fact, just like the 1986 amnesty, it almost guarantees that we will be having this same debate again in 10 years.

Most important, is it good for our economy? Legalizing 11 million immigrants, most of whom are blue-collar workers, will have significant effects on parts of our labor market. The influx of new legal workers will undercut the wages of blue-collar Americans, many of whom are already having a hard time getting by in a tough economy. Not to mention its effects on the 22 million people who are unemployed.

We also need to consider what effects this will have on the president’s health care law. Will these 11 million immigrants be eligible for government health care subsidies? How many hundreds of billions of dollars will that cost?

If these new immigrants don’t qualify for ObamaCare subsidies, then businesses cannot be fined for not providing health care to these workers. That would give businesses an incentive to hire these amnesty recipients instead of citizens to avoid costly fines, and give immigrants an edge over job-seeking Americans….”

Rep. Michael Burgess (R-TX)

http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2013/07/01/immigration-bill-amnesty-michael-burgess-editorials-debates/2481219/

workingclass artist on December 5, 2013 at 10:42 AM

You don’t have to send them back, just make sure they receive no frigging benefits, no drivers license, no voting etc. Secure the border and let them petition to become citizens but go to the back of the line and fine them.

major dad on December 5, 2013 at 10:42 AM

There’s no reverse psychology at work with me if the GOP even looks at this scheme, I will stone cold forget the GOP forever if they help pass amnesty. I never thought I would see such an accelerated route to national destruction in my lifetime, it’s as if time has been sped up.

Bishop on December 5, 2013 at 10:43 AM

For me it is going to be less about the debate over amnesty but the sneaky underhanded way that it appears it will happen. After the filing deadlines so nobody gets primaried for supporting gifting citizenship to a bunch of undeserving illegals. My guess it will also be in the early hours of the last day before Congress skips town. And, of course, there will be all sorts of BS about paths to earning citizenship, paying fines, and all the rest of the crap that is included in Benedict Rubio’s bill.

Happy Nomad on December 5, 2013 at 10:44 AM

Squirrel!

Get the conservative base freaking out about immigration instead of Obamacare.

Reid is so transparent.

rockmom on December 5, 2013 at 10:44 AM

Boehner’s play now, as Erick Erickson correctly predicts, is to wait until the deadline for primary challenges has passed early next year and then to spring a big new amnesty push on the public. Conservatives will be incensed, but who cares? After a year of horrible ObamaCare news, they’ll turn out for the GOP anyway next November to send Obama a message that America hates his boondoggle.

Well no. We won’t show up.

That’s what happened in 2006. And it will happen in 2014 if they’re stupid enough to push forward with this.

PetecminMd on December 5, 2013 at 10:45 AM

There’s no reverse psychology at work with me if the GOP even looks at this scheme, I will stone cold forget the GOP forever if they help pass amnesty. I never thought I would see such an accelerated route to national destruction in my lifetime, it’s as if time has been sped up.

Bishop on December 5, 2013 at 10:43 AM

It’s the same attitude that we saw during the shutdown. The GOP elite thinks that they are so much smarter than the rest of us that they are going to ram through amnesty for our own good. Ed and/or Allah will probably even be lecturing us on having to live to fight another day by the time the cave comes.

Happy Nomad on December 5, 2013 at 10:46 AM

Will cave or has caved?

Blaise on December 5, 2013 at 10:46 AM

“We have a lot of these congressional districts, they don’t care because they don’t have people of color in their congressional districts,” Reid said. “They don’t care.

Not all immigrants are ‘people of colour.’

Let’s face it: I can’t wait for Harry Reid to expire.

Resist We Much on December 5, 2013 at 10:47 AM

Reid doesn’t want the Caucasian Minoritization Act of 2013 but he wants the political reward of seeming to want it. There is no political reward for a Republican seeming to want it. It is the death of the Republican Party and the end of all white establishment power within the Democratic Party if this amnesty goes through and Reid doesn’t want either of those things. Boehner might not be smart enough to realize any of this so Reid is trying to give him some spine so he’ll oppose the CMA.

Buddahpundit on December 5, 2013 at 10:48 AM

I hope dirty Harry chokes on squirrels.

I also hope this fascist thug chokes on his lies.

——–
Teacher shot in Benghazi. Blame obama and Hillary.

Schadenfreude on December 5, 2013 at 10:48 AM

Reid is full of Obama on this one. There isn’t a sane Republican out there who would seriously propose amnesty for quite a while with so many Americans out looking for work. Not to mention all those added people taking from the ObamaFAIL system and jacking up the costs. i can only imagine the angry calls and office visits if they even think out loud about it. Amnesty is dead until after the next election cycle. After that all bets are off though.

HotAirian on December 5, 2013 at 10:49 AM

It’s the same attitude that we saw during the shutdown. The GOP elite thinks that they are so much smarter than the rest of us that they are going to ram through amnesty for our own good. Ed and/or Allah will probably even be lecturing us on having to live to fight another day by the time the cave comes.

Happy Nomad on December 5, 2013 at 10:46 AM

They can lecture all they want. With 30+ million Democrats coming on line, Texas will turn blue and Republicans will never win another national election again. The one thing that makes me happy about the upcoming amnesty is the prospect of seeing these corrupt scumbags get annihilated electorally, and their party collapsing into irrelevance.

Doomberg on December 5, 2013 at 10:49 AM

If Boehner is working his ass of to create a permanent Democrat majority, what does that make him?

ElectricPhase on December 5, 2013 at 10:49 AM

If Boehner goes for any form of amnesty scumhag Pelosi will fully get/earn the hammer for Jan. 2015. YOU can bank this.

Schadenfreude on December 5, 2013 at 10:49 AM

It’s hard for somebody to cave to the Democrats when their starting point is indistinguishable from that of the Democrats.

LOL

Good Lt on December 5, 2013 at 10:50 AM

Boehner might cave, the rest of the conservative House won’t.

Reid, as usual, is blowing smoke. Anything to distract from ObamaCare.

GarandFan on December 5, 2013 at 10:50 AM

Pressure from whom?

I cannot get my mind around why GOP leadership thinks this is a good idea.

BuckeyeSam on December 5, 2013 at 10:41 AM

Pressure from big business and the Wall Street Journal editorial page. Most likely serious threats from Chamber of Commerce types to withhold campaign funds in 2014.

There are major, major business forces in this country who want amnesty and they are organized and powerful.

There are left wing forces who are also organized who want amnesty so they can organize and exploit these new citizens.

Democrats want the voters, but more importantly they want the payroll taxes from legal employment of millions of wage-earners, to shore up their sacred Social Security and Medicare programs that are going broke due to the demographic bust.

rockmom on December 5, 2013 at 10:51 AM

Pressure from whom?

I cannot get my mind around why GOP leadership thinks this is a good idea.

BuckeyeSam on December 5, 2013 at 10:41 AM

Exactly. What the hell has them so cowed? Internal polls? Focus groups? It goes against everything I see from the public at large.

Bat Chain Puller on December 5, 2013 at 10:52 AM

Harry and obama, in Jan, and shortly after, there will be videos and interviews of families…with dead people, directly as a result of you and our obama’care. Mark this down. That will be the next phase.

RCP, you turkeys, make an ad with obama:

“If you like your plan, you can keep it”

“If you like your doctor, you can keep him”

“If you like your provider (hospital for the Yorba Linda crowd), you can keep it”

Then Ronald Reagan “Wellll…there you go again”

Schadenfreude on December 5, 2013 at 10:52 AM

Cantor is an even bigger swine than Boehner, if that’s possible.

Schadenfreude on December 5, 2013 at 10:53 AM

Faux advocates for amnesty too.

Karl Rove does.

The Bushs do.

ALL, they and here, who’re for amnesty are traitors to the land, her legal citizens, the laws, the jobs and the future of the children.

YOU may all go to Hell, pronto!

Schadenfreude on December 5, 2013 at 10:55 AM

And here we have the Stupid Party valiantly saving Defeat from the Jaws of Victory.

Ukiah on December 5, 2013 at 10:55 AM

There’s no reverse psychology at work with me if the GOP even looks at this scheme, I will stone cold forget the GOP forever if they help pass amnesty. I never thought I would see such an accelerated route to national destruction in my lifetime, it’s as if time has been sped up.

Bishop on December 5, 2013 at 10:43 AM

I agree. I just don’t understand why. Were these people visited by aliens? I don’t get it.

oldroy on December 5, 2013 at 10:57 AM

I wouldn’t be so sure of the GOP base turning out in the midterms to re-elect any GOP congressman that votes for amnesty.

Allahpundit, like many others, you are underestimating the anger the GOP base has towards amnesty. Amnesty has the potential to, and most probably will, supplant Obamacare as THE issue for the midterms. This will prove to be the GOP’s undoing and mea culpas issued after the fact will not save the political careers of those who will vote for it.

Unfortunately, even those who don’t vote for it might also be caught in the backlash.

TheRightMan on December 5, 2013 at 10:57 AM

Exactly. What the hell has them so cowed? Internal polls? Focus groups? It goes against everything I see from the public at large.

Bat Chain Puller on December 5, 2013 at 10:52 AM

I think it is less being cowed as it is pressure from donors. The “smart” strategy seems to be go ahead and pass amnesty as quickly as possible so it is off the table as a 2014 campaign issue. Boehner is banking on the idea that a few weeks of conservatives being ticked off in order to get all those new Republican voters. Because, of course, a bunch of filthy criminals who don’t respect our laws and will be on the public dole immediately after getting amnesty are secretly Republicans.

Happy Nomad on December 5, 2013 at 10:58 AM

Boehner’s play now, as Erick Erickson correctly predicts, is to wait until the deadline for primary challenges has passed early next year and then to spring a big new amnesty push on the public. Conservatives will be incensed, but who cares? After a year of horrible ObamaCare news, they’ll turn out for the GOP anyway next November to send Obama a message that America hates his boondoggle.

Uh, that would be a really dumb assumption on the GOP’s part. There was plenty of incentive for conservatives to show up at the polls in 2012, yet approximately 4 million of them stayed home. And that was without the base being crapped all over by the GOP leadership with an amnesty bill. If Boehner and McConnell do this, the party is dead. Maybe not for another couple of election cycles since the Dems will inevitably suffer some backlash over Obamacare, but many conservatives(myself included) will say to hell with the Republicans and begin looking for a new party to throw our support behind.

Look at it this way. At the beginning of 2013, Marco Rubio was a popular figure amongst conservatives and widely regarded as a frontrunner in the 2016 GOP Presidential primary. Less than a year later his numbers have plummeted and he now trails at least half a dozen other Republicans in some polls. I don’t think anyone needs 3 guesses to figure out what happened. Now take that downward trajectory and apply it to the entire Republican Party.

Doughboy on December 5, 2013 at 10:58 AM

Not all immigrants are ‘people of colour.’

Let’s face it: I can’t wait for Harry Reid to expire.

Resist We Much on December 5, 2013 at 10:47 AM

Some are very “pale”.

oldroy on December 5, 2013 at 10:59 AM

Sophie, don’t miss this :)

Schadenfreude on December 5, 2013 at 10:59 AM

If the Republicans ever want to elect a Republican president again, they’re going to have to get right with the Hispanic and Asian community who by more than 70 percent voted for [President Barack] Obama last time.”…

Harry Reid wants to help Republicans win back the White House.

Kataklysmic on December 5, 2013 at 11:00 AM

The fix is in.

Wigglesworth on December 5, 2013 at 11:00 AM

AP said:

And so, seven a half years after Hot Air launched, the day has come. Harry Reid is finally indisputably right about something.

AP, I realize it’s your role on here to pretend to be anti-amnesty while doing everything you can to demoralize amnesty opponents, but according to Krikorian, the same guy you quote later in the same post, the chances of an amnesty bill reaching Obama’s desk next year are still “slim”.

I’m not sure I’d agree they are “slim”- but it’s hardly “inevitable”. There probably aren’t a majority of House GOP votes for legalization before enforcement, and the Dems won’t accept anything less.

Jon0815 on December 5, 2013 at 11:00 AM

Republican business interests demand their amnesty, damn it, and they’ve been waiting at least six years.

Republican business interests = GOP establishment

myiq2xu on December 5, 2013 at 11:01 AM

Boehner is more of a fool if he starts taking political advice from Harry Reid.

Bird in the hand ….

Keep the ship steady and don’t do anything sudden or stupid while the Democrats are taking on water. Now is not the time to jump in the water to save a drowning man.

R Square on December 5, 2013 at 11:01 AM

Keep this, front/center, no matter how many squirrels they release.

Schadenfreude on December 5, 2013 at 11:02 AM

I think it is less being cowed as it is pressure from donors. The “smart” strategy seems to be go ahead and pass amnesty as quickly as possible so it is off the table as a 2014 campaign issue. Boehner is banking on the idea that a few weeks of conservatives being ticked off in order to get all those new Republican voters. Because, of course, a bunch of filthy criminals who don’t respect our laws and will be on the public dole immediately after getting amnesty are secretly Republicans.

Happy Nomad on December 5, 2013 at 10:58 AM

I think the Republicans know the illegals will mostly be going onto welfare/disability/Obamacare once they are legalized. I think the strategy (among the dumber ones that haven’t been bought off by the big donors and think this is a good idea) is to try to turn Mexicans into a “captive constituency” by buying them off with food stamps and other welfare.

Nowhere does it even enter their tiny, tiny brains that we can’t pay for these kinds of boondoggles anymore.

Doomberg on December 5, 2013 at 11:02 AM

I can’t listen to any of the headlines generated on this topic, the media is playing with your head, the pro amnesty people are playing with your head, Harry Reid is playing with your head, the commentator telling him not to say that might be playing with your head, and conservatives recoil knee jerk because we don’t want to hear about Amnesty.

Fleuries on December 5, 2013 at 11:02 AM

From Wigglesworht’ link

Here’s what is going to happen.

Boehner will wait until 2014, after qualifying for all the serious challenges to incumbents is over. Then he’ll get all these Republicans talking out of both sides of their mouths and the Democrats together for a bipartisan immigration reform push. The threat of primary challenges well passed, they’ll get their amnesty deal done.

The only way conservatives can stop this from happening now is to line up primary challenges early. In Texas, the period to challenge ends very shortly. Same goes for other states. If conservatives do not find credible, quality challengers ASAP, we’ll see amnesty steam roll through once the threat of the primaries is passed.

The Republicans are so convinced you will turn out and vote for them in 2014 to spite Obama, they are perfectly happy to screw you over in this fight knowing how cheap a date the conservative movement has become.

BOHICA kids, BOHICA.

Stop the charlatans from the right. They are NO different than the ones from the left. They enable the left and lie to you, thus they are worse than the commie thugs.

God, how I hate the Rs, more than the libtards. The latter know what they want and go for it.

Schadenfreude on December 5, 2013 at 11:05 AM

Boehner might cave, the rest of the conservative House won’t.

Reid, as usual, is blowing smoke. Anything to distract from ObamaCare.

GarandFan on December 5, 2013 at 10:50 AM

I think Reid’s assumption is that Boehner will cave by violating the Hastert Rule yet again and allowing amnesty to pass with a handful of Republicans joining every Democrat. I don’t see that happening though. Boehner would have a mutiny on his hands, both from his caucus and from the base.

Doughboy on December 5, 2013 at 11:06 AM

Gitmo would be a good place for Reid to spend his golden years.

justltl on December 5, 2013 at 11:06 AM

Squirrel wearing a tutu.

fogw on December 5, 2013 at 11:07 AM

Mickey Kaus wonders: If Reid really wanted Boehner to cave, he wouldn’t be saying stuff like this, would he? All it’ll do is raise alarms among border hawks in the conservative base, which will make it harder for Boehner to act.

Not exactly AP. Reid is so confident Boehner is going to cave he is rubbing it in his face while at the same time inflaming tensions between leadership and the conservative base. He wants it to tear apart the party and do as much internal damage as possible before the midterms. It is going to do that anyway so Reid isn’t changing the future here.

Wigglesworth on December 5, 2013 at 11:08 AM

After a year of horrible ObamaCare news, they’ll turn out for the GOP anyway next November to send Obama a message that America hates his boondoggle.

Oh, I’ll turn out, alright…
But not for the GOP.
I’ll vote Libertarian.

Boehner is about to cross one of my red lines – and unlike Obama, mine are real.

Chris Christie is another red line.
I’ll quit the party over fat boy.

DRayRaven on December 5, 2013 at 11:10 AM

“Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto wants to open the state oil company to private and foreign investment.

But workers at Pemex, the world’s eighth-largest oil company, believe the changes will make things worse for them.

Many already complain of low wages and late or non payment by the state-run monopoly.

Foreign companies have been banned from Mexico’s oil industry since nationalization in 1938.

“About 80 percent of Mexicans now associate Pemex with corruption, according to a recent poll, and do not believe that Peña Nieto’s plans will do much beyond creating more rich elites,” according to a story by the Washington Post.

Oil revenue constitutes 30 percent of Mexico’s federal budget.

Mexico’s oil production peaked in 2004 at about 3.5 million barrels a day.

Production has fallen to an estimated 2.5 million barrels a day, due mainly to depletion of shallow reservoirs.

President Peña Nieto last week proposed allowing Pemex to have partners who would share in the risks and rewards. Those arrangements are now banned by Mexico’s constitution.

The president said Mexico’s future depends on access to energy through expansion of oil and gas production….”

http://oilpatchasia.com/2013/08/mexico-president-proposes-sweeping-energy-reform/

“Mexico produced less than 2.482 million barrels per day of crude in July, state oil company Pemex said Friday.

That’s the lowest monthly output in almost 18 years.

President Enrique Pena Nieto has proposed sweeping reforms for the oil and gas sector, including private investment to spur new exploration and production.

July production was the lowest since October 1995.

Mexico’s production peaked in 2004 at of 3.4 million barrels per day.

Next month lawmakers will consider Pena Nieto’s reform plan and his proposal to open the sector to private investment from domestic and foreign companies.

The oil and gas industry was nationalized in 1938 and the constitution now prohibits foreign investment.

Oil revenue constitutes 30 percent of Mexico’s federal budget…”

http://oilpatchasia.com/2013/08/mexico-output-falls-18-year-low/

workingclass artist on December 5, 2013 at 11:10 AM

Boehner might cave, the rest of the conservative House won’t.

Reid, as usual, is blowing smoke. Anything to distract from ObamaCare.

GarandFan on December 5, 2013 at 10:50 AM

There are only a small number of conservatives in the House. We saw how small this number was during the shutdown. Ultimately if Boehner goes all in, they will not be able to stop this freight train. The Democrats will happy to help him pass it.

Doomberg on December 5, 2013 at 11:11 AM

AP, Is your Christmas bonus based on the number of Amnesty threads you start?

kcewa on December 5, 2013 at 11:13 AM

The Five Year Plan:

1) Stiffen and actually enforce fines and penalties for companies using illegal alien workers
2) Allow any illegal who checks in and documents his status at offices set up specifically for this purpose to receive a temporary work visa, which will expire three years from the date of issuance, or at the five year mark, whichever comes first. This will provide an incentive to register early.
3) Allow companies so inclined to hire these visa-holding workers. At the end of their three years, or at the five year mark, whichever comes first, these aliens will be provided with the necessary financial and logistical assistance to send them home.
4) Any illegal alien not registered by the initial eighteen month deadline will be subject to immediate deportation.
4) Any illegal caught returning to this country without a valid work visa will be subject to a mandatory one-year jail sentence, with immediate deportation upon release. A return engagement earns you a five-year sentence.

The day I learned to despise John McCain, they day I truly wanted to spit in his eye, was the day he was quoted on camera defending his pro amnesty stance by saying there weren’t enough buses to send the illegals home. As if a problem that has taken decades to grow to this magnitude couldn’t be addressed because we didn’t have sufficient transportation to ship everyone home on the same damn day.

We could do this. we should do this. It’s fair, reasonable, and shows greater compassion then we would ever receive from Mexico, Et Al, if the tables were reversed.

The Democrats and Republicans who support this, despicable all, are willing to sacrifice the health and long-term well being of our country in exchange for the hope of locking up the ‘Latino’ vote, regardless of the path to ruin they’ll be leaving for their children and grandchildren.

Don’t let these swine do it.

CaptFlood on December 5, 2013 at 11:13 AM

There is no better way for Republicans to absolutely ensure that they will lose every future national election, than to pass AMNESTY. Not that it would be all bad, but, passing AMNESTY would mean the death of the GOP, unfortunately, it would also mean the death of America.

Pork-Chop on December 5, 2013 at 11:18 AM

There are only a small number of conservatives in the House. We saw how small this number was during the shutdown. Ultimately if Boehner goes all in, they will not be able to stop this freight train. The Democrats will happy to help him pass it.

Doomberg on December 5, 2013 at 11:11 AM

Boehner could always pass it by getting a few Republicans to join most if not all of the Democrats. Obama and Reid have each pointed this out and they’re right. The problem with that is it not only stabs the conservative base right through the heart by ramming through a bill they’re vehemently opposed to, but it renders the Republican majority in the House as completely superfluous. Why bother voting them in when they’re going to pass stuff that even Pelosi wouldn’t go near during her 4 years as Speaker?

Doughboy on December 5, 2013 at 11:20 AM

Democrats & Unions are trying to secure their illegal base because if Mexico changes their constitution (To allow for foreign investment in Oil) it will result in an economic boom and a lot of illegals who don’t want to be citizens anyhow will head back south…Even the OTM’s from Latin America will head to Mexico for work.

“Scottsdale, Arizona (CNN) – Calls to overhaul the nation’s immigration laws will fade away as soon as Mexico jump-starts its economy, Texas Gov. Rick Perry predicted Wednesday.

Perry, speaking to reporters at the Republican Governors Association’s annual conference in Arizona, ridiculed Democratic efforts to pass a comprehensive immigration reform bill without first enhancing security along the Texas-Mexico border.

But Perry said the debate over immigration reform – and perhaps the heated political battles over border security – could end up being pointless thanks to Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto.

Nieto is working to overhaul his country’s energy laws in order to lure greater investment from outside oil and gas companies, thereby boosting job creation. Energy production in Mexico has been state-run for 75 years.

“I think immigration reform is going to be very passé,” Perry said. “It’s going to be part of the past. And one of the reasons is that is that when Mexico liberalizes the energy policy down there and the Mexicans who are here illegally go home… and as a matter of fact there might be a lot of folks who maybe are U.S. citizens going to Mexico looking for jobs in the energy industry.” – Gov. Perry

CNN Nov. 20.2013

“There’s a lot more oil out there in Mexico´s deep waters, but PEMEX lacks the funds and expertise to get it.

This wasn’t the future envisioned by President Lazaro Cardenas, who expelled the foreign oil companies and founded PEMEX in 1938, to give Mexico’s oil to “the people.” (March 18th, the date of the Expropriación Petrolera – Petroleum Expropriation – is commemorated annually.)

The Mexican Constitution (Article 27) guarantees PEMEX’s privileged position, a monopoly over the oil industry, from exploration to the sale of gasoline at the pump.

PEMEX service stations, with their familiar green signs, dispense gasoline nationwide to the captive Mexican consumer. Sometimes the fuel is watered down, but hey, it belongs “to the nation”!

PEMEX lacks sufficient refineries. The United States has 139 operable oil refineries. Mexico, with less than half of U.S. production, has only seven!

PEMEX is prohibited from partnering with foreign companies within Mexico, but not abroad. So Mexican crude is shipped to Houston, Texas, where it is refined (in partnership with Shell) and then re-imported to Mexico. Is that bizarre or what?

And since its vast natural gas fields can’t be properly exploited, Mexico is a net importer of natural gas from the United States.

Ironically, socialized petroleum makes Mexico more dependent – not less – on the United States.

Mexican pundit Sergio Sarmiento is not a big fan of Mexico’s oil monopoly, which he describes thusly: “… PEMEX … supposedly the property of all Mexicans … has only served to benefit the government, the political elite and the petroleum [workers'] union.”

Nevertheless, reforming PEMEX is very difficult.

Article 27 of the Constitution proclaims that all Mexican natural resources are the property of the nation (which in the real world means the property of the government).

However, the article makes a distinction between petroleum and mineral resources such as silver (of which Mexico is the world’s #1 producer), gold, lead, zinc, iron, and other minerals.

Foreign investment is permitted in the mining industry; in fact foreign companies are actually able to buy and sell concessions to mining operations. But not petroleum.

If the political will exists, it is easy to amend the Mexican Constitution. It’s been amended almost 500 times since 1917. It can be amended rather rapidly if all the party bosses are singing from the same sheet of music.

The real barrier is psychological, not constitutional. Mexican politicians have been raised on the rhetoric of oil as property of the nation. Just mentioning privatization or even private investment elicits hysteria.

Nevertheless, it’s become obvious that something must be done. A
full-fledged privatization is not in the works, and there’s practically no demand for it. PEMEX does subcontract out some work to private (even foreign) companies but these companies are not allowed to share profits.

But if Mexico wants its government to maintain control over its oil industry while simultaneously allowing more foreign investment that increases production, there ought to be a way to do that. Otherwise PEMEX is headed down the tubes.

Can the Pena Nieto administration accomplish needed reform? This is an issue Mexico-watchers like to keep an eye on. Stay tuned…”

Read more: http://www.americanthinker.com/2013/09/pemex_throttling_mexicos_oil_resources.html#ixzz2mcO5Sbx6

workingclass artist on December 5, 2013 at 11:21 AM

Boehner could always pass it by getting a few Republicans to join most if not all of the Democrats. Obama and Reid have each pointed this out and they’re right. The problem with that is it not only stabs the conservative base right through the heart by ramming through a bill they’re vehemently opposed to,

I agree with this, but the bottom line is that for whatever reason – idiocy, some sort of master plan, being bought off – they no longer seem to care what the conservative base thinks. Remember that Senator Toomey almost rescued Obama’s gun control bill from defeat, and gun rights is the GOP’s strongest issue. Only an intense lobbying effort by the NRA stopped it.

If they’re going to turn on us over that, why wouldn’t they turn on us on everything else too?

but it renders the Republican majority in the House as completely superfluous. Why bother voting them in when they’re going to pass stuff that even Pelosi wouldn’t go near during her 4 years as Speaker?

Doughboy on December 5, 2013 at 11:20 AM

This is basically the question I’ve been asking for several years now and why I walked away from the party after the 2012 election.

Doomberg on December 5, 2013 at 11:27 AM

Great idea there, GOP.
Pass amnesty (by any name) and increase the voting base for the Democrats.
Yeah, the Democrats. You know, starts with a D.

TimBuk3 on December 5, 2013 at 11:28 AM

Exactly. What the hell has them so cowed? Internal polls? Focus groups? It goes against everything I see from the public at large.

Bat Chain Puller on December 5, 2013 at 10:52 AM

Follow the Oil & Gas…It explains a lot.

Israelis open development of Leviathan off their coast…Obama changes US foreign policy towards Israel and opens up Iran to appease Russia.

President Nieto lobbies to open foreign investment in Oil in Mexico…Obama pushes Amnesty.

workingclass artist on December 5, 2013 at 11:30 AM

Amnesty is evil! Why do the pro-amnesty people hate illegal aliens? I keep hearing what a racist, bigoted, greedy country we are so I would think we would want to send them back to their country of origin to protect them from this evil country. Only yesterday Obama was letting us know how evil we are yet they want to subject these poor people to this evil. Couldn’t amnesty be seen as evil on the face of it?

Jackson on December 5, 2013 at 11:31 AM

Boehner will bow to pressure from donor groups like the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the National Association or Manufacturers and individuals like the Koch Brothers.

The Koch Brothers aren’t on our side. They are on the Koch Brothers side.

Amnesty is the establishment Republican’s 2014 plan to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

The amnesty of 11 – 20 million illegal aliens, who will then be able to sponsor all their equally uneducated relatives will spell the end of the GOP and the country as we know knew it.

Mexico will be able to “drain the swamp” of its misfits and transpose positions with the United States.

bw222 on December 5, 2013 at 11:33 AM

And if they do it will be the end of the GOP,surpassed at the polls by a conservative third party!

redware on December 5, 2013 at 11:33 AM

I think Reid’s assumption is that Boehner will cave by violating the Hastert Rule yet again and allowing amnesty to pass with a handful of Republicans joining every Democrat. I don’t see that happening though. Boehner would have a mutiny on his hands, both from his caucus and from the base.

Doughboy on December 5, 2013 at 11:06 AM

Yeah, I’m more worried about 2015, since Boehner can claim his Hastert pledge only applied to this Congress. The best way to stop it in 2015 is to defeat Lindsey Graham next year.

Jon0815 on December 5, 2013 at 11:34 AM

President Nieto lobbies to open foreign investment in Oil in Mexico…Obama pushes Amnesty.

workingclass artist on December 5, 2013 at 11:30 AM

Mexico will go from its current state (115 million people, a large portion of whom are uneducated and unskilled) to a much smaller population of highly educated Castilians and the U.S. will look like Mexico does today.

bw222 on December 5, 2013 at 11:36 AM

Another reason they want this passed is because of the taxation.

Every govt, on every level, are hellbent on collecting every dollar possible. That’s the real fight.

budfox on December 5, 2013 at 11:41 AM

Amnesty is the establishment Republican’s 2014 plan to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

The amnesty of 11 – 20 million illegal aliens, who will then be able to sponsor all their equally uneducated relatives will spell the end of the GOP and the country as we know knew it.

Mexico will be able to “drain the swamp” of its misfits and transpose positions with the United States.

bw222 on December 5, 2013 at 11:33 AM

If Nieto succeeds in opening up Pemex to foreign investment a lot of illegals will go home to work because most of them don’t want to be US citizens.

This will result in an economic boom for Mexico and a potential death spiral for the old guard Leftists who are fighting to keep the status quo…

workingclass artist on December 5, 2013 at 11:41 AM

A betting person would only look at a 50/50 chance either way.

Pardonme on December 5, 2013 at 11:41 AM

Great idea there, GOP.
Pass amnesty (by any name) and increase the voting base for the Democrats.
Yeah, the Democrats. You know, starts with a D.

TimBuk3 on December 5, 2013 at 11:28 AM

If you look at the GOP establishment, it would much more like to be on the side of Harry Reid, Chuck Schumer,Nancy Pelosi and the Washington Elites than on the side with Ted Cruz, Mike Lee, Sarah Palin and the party’s rank and file.

bw222 on December 5, 2013 at 11:43 AM

And so, seven a half years after Hot Air launched, the day has come. Harry Reid is finally indisputably right about something.

Allahpundit

.
Perhaps we could take this as a sign that Boehner won’t “cave”, right?
.
.
Naaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhh

listens2glenn on December 5, 2013 at 11:43 AM

Yeah, I’m more worried about 2015, since Boehner can claim his Hastert pledge only applied to this Congress. The best way to stop it in 2015 is to defeat Lindsey Graham next year.

Jon0815 on December 5, 2013 at 11:34 AM

In 2015, amnesty will actually be harder to pass because a wave election implies there will be more conservatives in the Senate available to slow down the effort. One Ted Cruz is troublesome enough, but ten is a nightmare for the GOP leadership.

Boehner’s best bet is to do it now, get a border security fig leaf thrown in, and then pretend to be “shocked, shocked!” when no security measures are implemented.

Doomberg on December 5, 2013 at 11:45 AM

Mexico will go from its current state (115 million people, a large portion of whom are uneducated and unskilled) to a much smaller population of highly educated Castilians and the U.S. will look like Mexico does today.

bw222 on December 5, 2013 at 11:36 AM

I disagree…I think it will result in an economic boom and a lot of US educated hispanic entrepreneurs will head south to be a part of it.

Pemex is down to a 30 year low in production and is dying.

Mexico needs the revenues badly.

California Liberals doesn’t want to lose their base and they don’t want Mexico to increase production.

Texas on the other hand is all for it.

workingclass artist on December 5, 2013 at 11:47 AM

Conservatives will be incensed, but who cares? After a year of horrible ObamaCare news, they’ll turn out for the GOP anyway next November

No. They won’t. If Mister Weepy McOrange Tears pushes this through, the voting base for the GOP will fit into a VW Beetle. Without removing the seats.

Physics Geek on December 5, 2013 at 11:50 AM

Actions of a Two Party Evil Money Cult who misuse wage slaves from Mexico and commit acts of treason on U.S..

APACHEWHOKNOWS on December 5, 2013 at 11:56 AM

Pressure from whom?

I cannot get my mind around why GOP leadership thinks this is a good idea.

BuckeyeSam on December 5, 2013 at 10:41 AM

Same here. I’ve been told on this forum that it’s the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and big Business. But then why not 4 years ago? Right now seems like the worst time to do this. No one trusts Big gov now, there is no appetite for amnesty in the general population. I mean, we are all biting our nails waiting to see what happens with Ocare. Why muddy the waters with an amnesty push. IT MAKES NO SENSE FOR THE GOP RIGHT NOW. It will ensure a low GOP turnout in 2014. I don’t get it… I get why the GOP would push amnesty($$$$) but why right now?!? Asking the nation to yet again fundamentally transform ourselves during a failed healthcare transformation is lunacy. If the GOP sets up a vote on amnesty,earnesty,legal status… then they should be done as a party. I’m not even talking about how they end up voting. They shouldn’t even be debating this right now.

BoxHead1 on December 5, 2013 at 12:00 PM

Physics Geek on December 5, 2013 at 11:50 AM

The pro amnesty crowd keeps telling us that over and over thinking it will influence the rest of us. We heard the same thing with Romney and Romneycare last year. The Republican base hates Obama so much they will turn out anyway. That belief didn’t turn out so well. I will say that Republicans are in better position for the midterms anyway, but leadership is surrendering part of their advantage so the party won’t perform to its potential.

Wigglesworth on December 5, 2013 at 12:01 PM

There is no pressure at all except the imaginary.

pat on December 5, 2013 at 12:03 PM

Another reason they want this passed is because of the taxation.

Every govt, on every level, are hellbent on collecting every dollar possible. That’s the real fight.

budfox on December 5, 2013 at 11:41 AM

True that.

“On Tuesday, Mexican senators began to discuss a bill that would effectively end a seventy year monopoly of the country’s oil industry. The Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) of President Enrique Pena Nieto, along with the Partido Acción Nacional (PAN) have put together a proposal to offer a profit sharing model similar to those offered in Brazil.

Under the proposed model, companies would be given greater control over the riskier fields, making it easier to attract investment and finally bring an end to the decade-long fall in output from Mexico’s $95 billion oil industry. By offering shares in concessions or licenses Mexico can gain greater attention from foreign energy investors.

Pena Nieto’s government believes that a ‘market-friendly’ reform could increase the level of foreign investment by as much as $15 billion a year, increasing economic growth by as much as one percentage point by 2018.

Pemex is about to hit a ninth straight year of output declines after production at the Cantarell oil field, once the third largest in the world, has fallen by more than 80 percent over the last decade. Total production for Pemex is currently down to 2.5 million barrels a day, from 3.3 million barrels a day in 2004, forcing the country to import 34% of its oil needs.

Emilio Lozoya, the Chief Executive Officer at Pemex, said that “Investment in exploration has multiplied dramatically, though production has fallen. To increase production in Mexico, more investment is required. One way to do this is to share the investment between other companies and Pemex.”

Lozoya stated that Mexico is on track to become a net oil importer, and that without a reform to attract investment, Pemex would need to spend around $1 trillion over the next 50 years in order to develop new reserves. This would require an annual expenditure of $62 billion, up from the current $25 billion.

http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Mexican-Senators-Debate-Offering-Profit-Sharing-Contracts-Similar-to-Brazil.html

“Bottom Line: Energy reform in Mexico will probably happen in pieces, and more slowly than it first appeared, but it must happen.

Just as the US is considering the Keystone XL pipeline, and greater imports of Canadian oil (especially from oil sands), Mexico should look north for US cooperation on its oil and gas projects. Pemex recently brokered a deal for the newly split Los Ramones gas pipeline running from Agua Dulce in South Texas through Nuevo Laredo and Tamaulipas to Aguascalientes (Los Ramones Norte – estimated cost US$1 billion) and then to Querétaro/Guanajuato (Los Ramones Sur – estimated cost US$800 million). TransCanada, Enagás (Spain) and GDF Suez France expressed interest in… ”

http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/North-America/Looking-North-Mexico-and-the-US.html

workingclass artist on December 5, 2013 at 12:05 PM

Harry Reid wants to help Republicans win back the White House.

Kataklysmic

Mighty white of him to try and help republicans defeat his own party, isn’t it, lol?

Exactly. What the hell has them so cowed? Internal polls? Focus groups? It goes against everything I see from the public at large.

Bat Chain Puller

Nothing has them cowed. The bottom line is once you get past the (R) after their names, they pretty much have the same beliefs as democrats.

If Nieto succeeds in opening up Pemex to foreign investment a lot of illegals will go home to work because most of them don’t want to be US citizens.

workingclass artist

So that will leave 19 million here instead of 20 million, lol.

xblade on December 5, 2013 at 12:05 PM

Same here. I’ve been told on this forum that it’s the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and big Business. But then why not 4 years ago? Right now seems like the worst time to do this.

BoxHead1 on December 5, 2013 at 12:00 PM

I think it’s related to the Pemex debate in Mexico.

Competition for voting base, low wage workers and tax revenues.

What would happen to California if Latinos went south?

workingclass artist on December 5, 2013 at 12:09 PM

So that will leave 19 million here instead of 20 million, lol.

xblade on December 5, 2013 at 12:05 PM

Most Latino illegals come to the US to get work and educate their children…Unless they go to California to go on welfare.

If Nieto succeeds in reforming the Mexican energy sector it will result in an economic boom and Texans are poised to reap the benefit.

I think California will be the big loser in this one which is why they are pushing the amnesty deal.

Just my humble opinion.

workingclass artist on December 5, 2013 at 12:15 PM

“Ms. López had crossed the border to the U.S. illegally when she was about 12 years old, following her father. Ms. López became salutatorian at her American high school. But she said she realized she wouldn’t be able to attend college without legal documents.

Now 20 years old, she’s an international-relations student at Tecnológico de Monterrey in the southeastern state of Puebla and sees more reasons to build her life in Mexico. “Most of the people that I know have been to the states and migrated and moved back,” Ms. López said. “They already know what it’s like.…It’s not like you’re going to go there and be happy forever. You have to work hard.”

After four decades of persistent migration from Mexico to the U.S., the net immigration flow has stopped in recent years…

New opportunities are coming to Mexico. Luxury-car maker Audi laid the foundation stone in May for a factory in Puebla—the German company’s first in North America—to manufacture the Audi Q5 SUV. The project is set to create 3,800 jobs at the plant and some 16,000 jobs at suppliers and other businesses.

The Mexican economy grew at a 4% annual rate in 2012, compared with 2.2% in the U.S. In the state of Puebla, the source of hundreds of thousands of immigrants to the U.S., the economy grew at a 6.6% rate in the fourth quarter of 2012, according to government statistics. The unemployment rate in Puebla was just above 4% in April.

“The incentive to go to the states is lower, because they’re going to have a very nice job with all the fringe benefits,” Miguel Hakim Simón, head of Puebla’s office of international affairs and migrant support, said in an interview in the newly constructed Puebla government offices in Atlixco. “At least from the Puebla standpoint, we don’t think we’re going to send more people to the states.”

Some Mexicans will still be drawn to the U.S., particularly as its economy improves. In Puebla, 61% of residents lived in poverty in 2010, says a study by the National Council for the Evaluation of Social Development Policy, a Mexican group. “It is a state of contrasts,” Mr. Hakim said.

But fewer Mexicans say they are interested in making the journey. Some 61% of Mexicans surveyed in a separate Pew poll said they wouldn’t come to the U.S. even if they had the means and the opportunity. However, some 35% said they would.

“If they want to go because it’s a family thing or whatever, they can go. But in the past, I would say it was they didn’t have any option,” Mr. Hakim said. “Before, they had to go.”

Demographic changes show there will also be fewer young Mexicans to make the trek. In the 1960s, Mexican woman gave birth to an average of seven children over the course of their lifetimes. By 2011, that average had fallen to about two.

With the U.S. labor force aging, the supply of young labor from the south could have implications for America’s economic future too…

“There’s always a surplus of labor in the world, at least for the foreseeable future,” said Douglas Massey, a Princeton University sociology and public affairs professor. But “I think there might be a time in 10 years where American employers, and Americans in general, might think about the good old days when Mexican labor was cheap and plentiful….”

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424127887324069104578529522746064526

Competing for voters…low wage workers and tax revenue.

workingclass artist on December 5, 2013 at 12:28 PM

I think it’s related to the Pemex debate in Mexico.

Competition for voting base, low wage workers and tax revenues.

What would happen to California if Latinos went south?

workingclass artist on December 5, 2013 at 12:09 PM

OK, I can see how, maybe in order to sustain this debt we need 20 million new sources of “revenue” , assuming that amnesty doesn’t encourage a flood of new illegals which could offset any gains – iow – assuming the illegals here right now take nothing new from the welfare state, they would now, maybe, be paying some taxes which would be a new source of revenue for the gov. Maybe it’s the only way to sustain this big a budget.

The voting base argument is kaka. The republicans will lose % after amnesty. No one can argue that the Rs will dominate the post-illegal vote. Everyone either agrees on this or they are lying.

The “Low wage workers” argument makes perfect sense but why now? nothing has changed on that front. BigBiz has been pushing legal status for this reason for 40 years. Or as Apache wrote-

Actions of a Two Party Evil Money Cult who misuse wage slaves from Mexico and commit acts of treason on U.S..
APACHEWHOKNOWS on December 5, 2013 at 11:56 AM

Explain this

What would happen to California if Latinos went south?

The latinos in Cali will not go south even without amnesty. I’m not sure what you are asking.

And thanks for the Pemex link. I need to read up on that. I’m not sure how it fits in with amnesty legislation.

BTW – thanks for the informative posts.

BoxHead1 on December 5, 2013 at 12:31 PM

Pressure from whom?

I cannot get my mind around why GOP leadership thinks this is a good idea.

BuckeyeSam on December 5, 2013 at 10:41 AM

it makes perfect sense when you realize they hate conservatives and want to permanently remove our influence from the party.

njrob on December 5, 2013 at 12:38 PM

This is nothing more than a desperate attempt by Reid to change the subject from Obamacare, the gift that keeps on giving to Republicans. The last poll shows that Obama has a 60% disapproval rating on immigration policy–what incentive would Boehner have to bring up immigration and help out Obama?

Republicans currently have a 32-seat majority in the House, and with public outcry over people losing health insurance or paying higher premiums to Obamacare, which was passed ONLY by Democrats, there is very little risk of Republicans losing their House majority in 2014, if nothing is done on immigration policy.

Reid is obviously worried about losing the Democrat majority in the Senate, where vulnerable Democrats are up for re-election in many states won by Romney in 2012 (LA, AR, SD, MT, AK, WV, NC) whose Hispanic populations are relatively small.

Regarding Reid’s comment that Hispanic voters went massively for Obama in 2012, this probably stems from Romney’s comments about immigration and “self-deportation” from the primary campaign. In the 2016 Presidential election, the Republican candidate could win more Hispanic (and black) votes by endorsing education vouchers which would enable children from poor neighborhoods to attend private schools, which was done at the state level by Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, who is himself of Indian ancestry.

For right now, most voters don’t care about immigration policy one way or the other–they want to be rescued FROM Obamacare. Republicans need to campaign on repealing Obamacare and promoting a conservative, market-based health insurance policy that works (interstate competition for health insurance, allowing low-cost “catastrophic care” policies, caps on medical malpractice awards, health-savings accounts, etc.) in order to win back the Senate in 2014. Let’s leave the 2016 Presidential election until later, based on the issues important to voters at that time.

Steve Z on December 5, 2013 at 12:40 PM

In order to conclude that Hispanics really care about amnesty, you also have to conclude that they would vote for Republicans if they help pass amnesty. In all probability, they will still vote for Democrats. The only difference is that there will be 11million more of them voting for Democrats if Republicans cave. Then, there will be even less Republican voters turning out for elections. Then, we become Venezuela.

cajunpatriot on December 5, 2013 at 12:45 PM

Karma is such a biatch

Schadenfreude on December 5, 2013 at 12:48 PM

I called my House Rep’s office this morning (Womack, R-AR) and told his staff that I’d stay home on Election Day or even vote for the Democrat if the House passes an amnesty bill even if he himself voted against it. It’s the only way I can think of to have him pressure Boehner. He can’t just take security in his own position but must take some responsibility for the position of the entire caucus.

Charlemagne on December 5, 2013 at 12:53 PM

The latinos in Cali will not go south even without amnesty. I’m not sure what you are asking.

And thanks for the Pemex link. I need to read up on that. I’m not sure how it fits in with amnesty legislation.

BTW – thanks for the informative posts.

BoxHead1 on December 5, 2013 at 12:31 PM

Here’s how it fits.

If Nieto succeeds in changing the Mexican Constitution to allow foreign investment in Mexican Oil (Being debated now in the Mexican Senate) It will generate quick cash into the Government so that Nieto can finish the rest of the upgrades he wants to do.

Nieto is trying to reform the Mexican economy and wants to rebuild the infrastructure.

1200 people a day have been moving to Texas since 2009…Most are economic refugees from failed Liberal states and Energy Development as well as manufacturing & small business growth has been a big part of it.

Nieto wants to repeat the success he sees in Texas down south in his own country and Tejanos are pretty pysched about it…That’s why Gov. Perry said what he said about immigration that I posted upthread.

They should be two separate issues.

Border Security First.

The illegal migration from the south will likely take care of itself if Nieto succeeds and Nieto will need the labor.

Nieto is trying to reform education in Mexico and has stepped up building more schools.

workingclass artist on December 5, 2013 at 12:53 PM

The latinos in Cali will not go south even without amnesty. I’m not sure what you are asking.

BoxHead1 on December 5, 2013 at 12:31 PM

Well we’ll have to wait and see I guess.

I think most of the younger ones will migrate back especially if they are college educated and have entrepreneurial tendencies.

I expect Nieto will offer incentives if he succeeds as part of his reform package.

Texas seems to be all for Nietos reforms in Mexico…California not so much.

*shrug*

workingclass artist on December 5, 2013 at 1:02 PM

workingclass artist on December 5, 2013 at 12:53 PM

Interesting posts. I hope Nieto succeeds.

Doomberg on December 5, 2013 at 1:13 PM

Well we’ll have to wait and see I guess.

I think most of the younger ones will migrate back especially if they are college educated and have entrepreneurial tendencies.

I expect Nieto will offer incentives if he succeeds as part of his reform package.

Texas seems to be all for Nietos reforms in Mexico…California not so much.

*shrug*

workingclass artist on December 5, 2013 at 1:02 PM

If Pemex creates a new energy boom in Mexico then , sure, a lot of illegals might migrate back. It’s something to watch. It’s a big if. But it still doesn’t explain the GOP’s suicidal amnesty push.

thanks and see you in the next amnesty thread.

I

BoxHead1 on December 5, 2013 at 1:15 PM

Conservative Congresscritters should call a vote of No Confidence immediately. If they don’t, they are part of the problem.

PS: Any Congress person who voted last time to keep Boehner as Speaker should get the boot. Period.

Mr. Arrogant on December 5, 2013 at 1:18 PM

If the ruling class imposes amnesty I hope patriotic Americans will rise up and finally put an end to the traitors in the federal government. The American people need to say no, and make DC listen.

FloatingRock on December 5, 2013 at 1:22 PM

Get used to it, your just the New Apache, who are in the way of progress, it does not turn out well with unlimited illegal immigration from south of the border for your lands, your gold, your wife’s and children.

You will love your new improved reservation life’s.

APACHEWHOKNOWS on December 5, 2013 at 1:30 PM

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