Brutal Quinnipiac poll of Colorado: Obama’s job approval at 36/59, Hillary now trails three Republican contenders

posted at 4:01 pm on November 20, 2013 by Allahpundit

The worst state poll of his presidency? It’s his worst Quinnipiac state poll for sure, by their own admission, which is significant for two reasons. One: Colorado is, of course, a famously purple state and bellwether, one which helped Bush to the presidency in 2000 and 2004 and then broke for Obama in 2008 and 2012. The One is used to seeing his job approval 20 points underwater or more in red states, but Colorado hasn’t been a red state at the presidential level in nearly a decade. Lots of rehab work to be done by Democrats before the midterms.

Two: This may be early evidence that the O-Care debacle is spilling over into perceptions of other Democrats, specifically the nominee-in-waiting. Hillary trails Chris Christie head to head in this one by eight points, which is an unusually large spread between them; even more unusual is that she also trails Rand Paul (by three) and Paul Ryan (by two) and is tied with Ted Cruz. Typically Christie’s the only Republican who leads her in these hypothetical 2016 match-ups, and even he ends up trailing her sometimes. In Colorado, Quinnipiac found him ahead by three in June and ahead by just one point in August — and now suddenly he’s creeping up on double digits. That’s due in part to the good press he got after his Jersey landslide, but if this was all about Christie, you wouldn’t see Paul and Ryan overtaking Hillary too. Something else is going on.

Here’s what happens when you ask Coloradans whether they think their health care will be better next year because of O-Care or worse.

hcnextyear

Lots of pessimism out there, most notably the -19 among women, a reliably Democratic group that tends to be more supportive of O-Care than men are. An ObamaCare optimist searching desperately for a silver lining could read that same data as proof that a clear majority thinks their health care will be better or, at worst, no different from how it is now, but that’s a poor interpretation for lots of reasons. For starters, part of the “no different” contingent may be under the impression that they’ll be able to keep their plans even if the suckers on the individual market can’t. Not true; America will see cancellations in group coverage soon enough, once the delay in the employer mandate expires. As more people are moved onto the exchanges, the problems consumers on the individual market are experiencing will only become more widespread — rate shock, access shock, and general annoyance at the realization that what Obama sold to the country as a big health-care upgrade for everyone is really just a redistribution scheme to have the healthy and middle-class pay for coverage for the poor and sick. David Frum’s dead right on this:

Perceptions will change, but not in the direction O-Care fans are hoping for. Speaking of which, here’s where perceptions in Colorado stand on which side in hindsight was to blame for the shutdown. The party that wants to shrink government naturally leads, but the margin is awfully thin — likely the result of some voters concluding that an urgent effort to stop ObamaCare from taking effect wasn’t so pointless after all.

sd

It’s not just Hillary and Democrats generally who are suffering either. Mark Udall, Colorado’s Democratic senator, now finds himself with only small leads over a variety of Republican contenders. Given all the landmines that still lie in front of O-Care, I wonder how soon the Clintons will start inching away from health-care reform and what form that’ll take. Bill gave us a sneak preview with what he said last week about O needing to honor his “if you like your plan” commitment; Hillary will, for starters, surely end up endorsing a wider variety of plans being offered on the exchanges than just the expensive “comprehensive” ones that Obama keeps mumbling about. (Can’t wait to hear her explain how she’d make up the revenue shortfall from that.) More generous subsidies for the lower middle class to help ease rate shock is also a fait accompli for her platform. Don’t wait too long, Clintonworld.

Via RCP, here’s Krauthammer insisting she’s a paper tiger. I’m unconvinced.


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@davidfrum
And once you understand that what is visibly happening in the individual market is less visibly altering the group market .. (1/2)

@davidfrum
… you’ll stop taking refuge in the “it’s only 5%” excuse. (2/2)

I’ve posted the same multiple times (probably not so eloquently) since mid-October. Glad this bit of terror is seeing the light of day.

socalcon on November 20, 2013 at 7:22 PM

OT/ all the State Insurance Commissioner’s are meeting with JugEars…in the White House today…why isn’t the Politburo Press allowed?

KOOLAID2 on November 20, 2013 at 4:06 PM

Off the record beat-down?

socalcon on November 20, 2013 at 7:23 PM

Hillary! is a has-been! BENGHAZI! RE-SET BUTTON! ARAB SPRING – THAT WASN’T.

GarandFan on November 20, 2013 at 7:27 PM

Colorado is the old stomping grounds for me, and all of my family is still there. I’m fairly confident in saying that none of them would vote for Christie in the general election. They would hold their noses for Ryan, and Paul (they’re not crazy about some of his libertarian views). They’d be excited to vote for Cruz. They’d also pull the lever for with some excitement if it were Perry, Jindal, and Walker. I think some of them would struggle voting for Jeb.

I’d like to see a good primary challenge to Tipton and Gardner. They’re both a little to moderate for their districts, especially Gardner. Coffman is pretty good, and Lamborn is solid. There are several big hitters running for guv, but the senate race doesnt have those big hitters. That’s fine, Cruz wouldnt have been considered a big hitter at this point in the race either. May the most articulate conservative fighter win the senate primary.

ritewhit on November 20, 2013 at 7:56 PM

I don’t know what the Dems have planned but it has to be big. The employer mandate will begin to affect people next year and will have a considerably larger impact than we are seeing now. The Dems have already started to put the word out that they are looking for a boogey man. It will have to be something on a massive scale to distract from the attempted enslavement of the population.

JAGonzo on November 20, 2013 at 7:56 PM

Just imagine how delightful it’s gonna get when the insurance cancellations from employer insurance starts to hit next October 1st. And that’s saying nothing about how these LIV who don’t even know what a ‘deductible’ is will react once they start seeing THOSE bills, much less how bad it’ll be when they realize it’s going to cost them $60 to see a doctor (“What’s a co-pay??”) and $150 or even $300 to go to the ER, which used to be ‘free’ for them. Oh yeah, good times. The sh!t storm hasn’t even hit yet, Dems! *giddy*

JenBee on November 20, 2013 at 8:01 PM

Poor Richard Nixon… if only he’d spent more time on his tan……

/S

viking01 on November 20, 2013 at 8:02 PM

Hillary trails Chris Christie head to head in this one by eight points, which is an unusually large spread between them; even more unusual is that she also trails Rand Paul (by three) and Paul Ryan (by two) and is tied with Ted Cruz. Typically Christie’s the only Republican who leads her in these hypothetical 2016 match-ups, and even he ends up trailing her sometimes.

You can just shove it right there. We have put up two rinos up in the past two elections and this toad load is no different than McCain/Romney.
Just stfu already. It’s not going to happen!
Nobody believes my chins anymore. Nobody.

RovesChins on November 20, 2013 at 8:05 PM

The 5% that Obama is tossing aside is the same 5% that will ultimately decide the next election(s). The spreads are usually less.

If Fatso is leading by double digits, wait until the 5% discovers Scott Walker. Game over.

NoPain on November 20, 2013 at 8:26 PM

Companies of all sizes will be considering throwing their employees out onto the exchanges next year, if they haven’t decided already. Maybe that’s the 100 million enrollees Obummer referenced the other day.

Midterms will be fun.

Philly on November 20, 2013 at 8:30 PM

You can just shove it right there. We have put up two rinos up in the past two elections and this toad load is no different than McCain/Romney.
Just stfu already. It’s not going to happen!
Nobody believes my chins anymore. Nobody.

RovesChins on November 20, 2013 at 8:05 PM

…ok!…that was good ^^^ and true!…and the bold was funny!

KOOLAID2 on November 20, 2013 at 8:41 PM

Hillary trails Chris Christie head to head in this one by eight points, which is an unusually large spread between them; even more unusual is that she also trails Rand Paul (by three) and Paul Ryan (by two) and is tied with Ted Cruz. Typically Christie’s the only Republican who leads her in these hypothetical 2016 match-ups, and even he ends up trailing her sometimes.

You can just shove it right there. We have put up two rinos up in the past two elections and this toad load is no different than McCain/Romney.
Just stfu already. It’s not going to happen!
Nobody believes my chins anymore. Nobody.

RovesChins on November 20, 2013 at 8:05 PM

It’s a feature of AP’s poll-related posts, not a bug. (Right up there with, “dude, I’m nervous.”)

;)

Myron Falwell on November 20, 2013 at 8:46 PM

You can just shove it right there. We have put up two rinos up in the past two elections and this toad load is no different than McCain/Romney.
Just stfu already. It’s not going to happen!
Nobody believes my chins anymore. Nobody.

RovesChins on November 20, 2013 at 8:05 PM

…ok!…that was good ^^^ and true!…and the bold was funny!

KOOLAID2 on November 20, 2013 at 8:41 PM

Hillary trails Chris Christie head to head in this one by eight points, which is an unusually large spread between them; even more unusual is that she also trails Rand Paul (by three) and Paul Ryan (by two) and is tied with Ted Cruz. Typically Christie’s the only Republican who leads her in these hypothetical 2016 match-ups, and even he ends up trailing her sometimes.
You can just shove it right there. We have put up two rinos up in the past two elections and this toad load is no different than McCain/Romney.
Just stfu already. It’s not going to happen!
Nobody believes my chins anymore. Nobody.

RovesChins on November 20, 2013 at 8:05 PM

It’s a feature of AP’s poll-related posts, not a bug. (Right up there with, “dude, I’m nervous.”)

;)

Myron Falwell on November 20, 2013 at 8:46 PM

I’m starting to believe the cats are just mailing it in and AP’s currently working as P*ssy Riot’s roadie.

RovesChins on November 20, 2013 at 8:50 PM

Obamacare Now More Unpopular Than The Iraq War In 2006…

Via Washington Examiner:

Support for President Obama’s health care law has dropped 16 points in the past month — and that’s just among Democrats.

The finding, from a CBS News poll, is one of several startling numbers from polls released in recent days showing rapidly eroding public support for Obama’s signature legislative accomplishment in the wake of its botched rollout. [...]

With the 2014 midterm elections now in the horizon, what’s most striking is how closely Obamacare polling is starting to resemble polling on Iraq in fall 2006, when a public backlash against the war enabled the Democrats to take over control of both chambers of Congress.

A Gallup poll taken days before the Nov. 7, 2006, election found that 55 percent of Americans had come to view sending troops to Iraq as a mistake, compared to 40 percent who said it was not.

Yet in the CBS News poll released Wednesday, 61 percent of Americans were found to disapprove of Obamacare, compared to 31 percent who approve. In the Washington Post poll, the numbers were 57 percent to 40 percent.

Resist We Much on November 20, 2013 at 9:01 PM

Short memories. The only reason BHO is screwing up the Presidency today is because of Clinton weariness in 2008. Today, the Dems are all lighting up like light bulbs for Hillary solely because of the disaster known as Obama Nation.

She was supposed to clean everybody’s clock before, and Obama was an afterthought. Now she’s going to do it again? Not happening. Especially not after Christie Creme enters the race as a Democrat.

[Just kidding, I think.]

IndieDogg on November 20, 2013 at 9:11 PM

The witless slim Jim has been chitting up a chitnado lately.

SparkPlug on November 20, 2013 at 10:05 PM

If Pink Floyd wrote a song on ‘The Wall’ about Obama, they would’ve called it “Is There Anybody *In* There???”

Heh.

a5minmajor on November 20, 2013 at 10:21 PM

Lots of rehab work to be done by Democrats before the midterms.

No worries – the GOP and its amnesty handmaidens will help them get that in order.

Midas on November 20, 2013 at 10:37 PM

If amnesty passes, you can forget about Texas staying red.

bluegill on November 20, 2013 at 4:45 PM

Yup! Comprehensive amnesty would be a demographic time bomb that could never be defused. Voting will be like the American passengers that stormed the cockpit of the last hijacked flight on 9/11. They knew they were doomed, but were going to make one last act of resistance.

Wigglesworth on November 20, 2013 at 10:39 PM

OK I have to admit it- that is my favorite picture of Hillary… and if looks could kill we wouldn’t be going through this crap today because BO would have been a pile of ashes by now

whatabunchoflosers on November 20, 2013 at 10:41 PM

Midas on November 20, 2013 at 10:37 PM

That is the only thing that can save Obama and the Democrats at this point.

Picture this: Tens of millions of Americans are losing their insurance and they turn on the TV to see Republicans squabbling over immigration reform rather than spending their time on solving the health insurance disaster.

Obama would have a hyped signing ceremony with Rubio and Schumer huddled in close with big smiles. Obama would no doubt praise Republicans for “fixing” immigration in a bipartisan fashion and if only they would work in a similar way to make Obamacare affordable for everyone.

Wigglesworth on November 20, 2013 at 10:45 PM

This isn’t purely about health care, this is also about the gun control mess in Colorado.

crosspatch on November 20, 2013 at 10:53 PM

Lord, I ask that you carry this great nation intact through the next 3 years- and I promise that we will come out better on the other side. I promise. Pinky promise. We will I swear. Just get us there and you’ll see. Cross my heart. C’mon God- joke’s over

Amen and amen

whatabunchoflosers on November 20, 2013 at 11:18 PM

Yup! Comprehensive amnesty would be a demographic time bomb that could never be defused. Voting will be like the American passengers that stormed the cockpit of the last hijacked flight on 9/11. They knew they were doomed, but were going to make one last act of resistance.

Wigglesworth on November 20, 2013 at 10:39 PM

…I like that analogy!

KOOLAID2 on November 21, 2013 at 1:14 AM

From USA Today:

What if the 2012 election were held today? Mitt Romney apparently would be president, according to a new poll.

Romney would lead Obama, 49% to 45%, among registered voters in an ABC News/Washington Post poll released Tuesday. The findings are within the poll’s margin of error, but pollster Gary Langer notes that Obama’s support among registered voters now is actually 6 points lower than his showing in the 2012 election.

J_Crater on November 21, 2013 at 1:44 AM

When you think about it, its somewhat amazing. This clown/regime has been lying to the American people for five years. Now all of a sudden when it starts touching their pocketbook and ability to access health care they start to get it! Talk about LIV’s,wow.

rodguy911 on November 21, 2013 at 6:24 AM

Via RCP, here’s Krauthammer insisting she’s a paper tiger. I’m unconvinced.

Allah blog-post on Hillary achievements as secretary of state in 3..2…1…??

Does she really expect running as a former Senator with no executive experience and a failed healthcare plan that resembles O-care is a winning strategy? She’s no cult of personality. She’s nurse Ratchet!

what unconvinces you, Allah?

beselfish on November 21, 2013 at 6:26 AM

Hope the Dems have “plan B” on the shelf as many think Hillary won’t risk bringing up past scandals, Benghazi, and Bill in her campaigns, and she won’t run.

Amazingoly on November 21, 2013 at 7:38 AM

It doesn’t matter.
Choomie and his acolytes are going scorched-earth on the Republic.
It’s too late to remedy the remaking of the country by the media-left-D.C. hive.
America voted for this–twice.
Enjoy the bitter ashes,fools.

Dr. Carlo Lombardi on November 21, 2013 at 9:50 AM

re: the PHOTO …
Judging by Killery’s gaze at King Putt, I would suggest he NEVER, EVER visit Ft. Marcy Park. Secret Service protection is not sufficient when dealing with The Killery.
With President Asterisk in residence … I understand they still have ashtrays in the White House. (Killery has been known to launch one of those now and again.)

Missilengr on November 21, 2013 at 11:21 AM

It’s not just O-care here. The Dems control the governorship and the state legislature. They over-reached with their gun legislation and their proposed tax increase that went down in flames earlier this month. I think it’s the entire Democratic party that is being exposed here. If we solidify our opposition, I think there’s a good chance we can toss Udall AND regain some control over the state government.

COgirl on November 21, 2013 at 11:52 AM

crosspatch, my comments keep disappearing, but I made the same point. It’s more than Obamacare, it’s the gun control measures AND the stupid tax increase they tried to ram down our throats. If we can solidify, we can beat Udall and regain some control in Colorado.

COgirl on November 21, 2013 at 12:16 PM

The shutdown will be seen a positive for Republicans by the time 2014 and 2016 elections roll around. It will be seen a heroic fight, one last chance to stop a disaster from taking place.

Like I said at the time of the shutdown…it was Battle of Borodino…and now Obama and his army are stuck in Russia with the Russian winter coming on.

Now…Unleash the Cossacks!

William Eaton on November 21, 2013 at 12:39 PM

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