Michigan Senate seat in play for 2014?

posted at 4:31 pm on November 16, 2013 by Jazz Shaw

We’ve already taken an early look this Fall at some of the Senate seats which are up for grabs next year and how the GOP may be able to capitalize on these opportunities and take the six slots they need for majority control of the upper chamber. But one spot which hasn’t really been high on my list is the seat in Michigan. A number of readers have commented on this, and they may have been ahead of the curve. When Carl Levin announced that he wasn’t going to be running for another term I didn’t get particularly excited. The Democrats seemed to have a built in advantage, particularly with strong union support and aggressive fundraising. But now Stu Rothenberg is taking a close look at this race and finding that the Democrats might not be as “safe” as most observers once predicted.

Republicans don’t need to win Michigan to get the majority in the Senate, but the Wolverine State could become a serious takeover target later next year.

After more than three decades, Democratic Sen. Carl Levin announced that he would not seek re-election. Instead of competitive primaries filled with ambitious candidates, it looks like both parties have settled on their nominees for next fall. At this point, the general election looks like it will be between Democratic Rep. Gary Peters and Republican former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land.

Early public polling shows a competitive race with both candidates lacking statewide name identification. A September EPIC-MRA poll showed Peters ahead, 38 percent to 37 percent. A mid-October automated survey from the Democratic Public Policy Polling firm had the congressman with a larger advantage, 43 percent to 36 percent. And a recent automated survey by the Revsix, a Republican firm, and Michigan Blueprint Strategies, a Democratic firm, for Inside Michigan Politics also had Peters leading a general election ballot test, 43 percent to 38 percent.

The race has now been moved to “Democrat Favored” instead of safe, but that further shows that this is far from a sure pick-up. The built-in advantages for the Democrats I mentioned above haven’t gone away, even if the electorate is in a mood to be a bit more open minded. Also, it’s not a given that we already know the final two candidates. But if things stay on their current track, the possibilities are getting more interesting. Republican Terri Lynn Land just posted another $2M fundraising quarter well in advance of the race, and the problems facing Detroit have taken some of the shine off the union apple.

If Stu is right, the voters in Michigan are hardly settled on a final choice and still have a lot to learn about both candidates before these numbers start to solidify at all. If Land (assuming she is the nominee) can get out early and define both herself and the Democrat, rather than getting bogged down in a self-destructive primary, she could develop some momentum and set the GOP up for a steal here. We’ll want to take Michigan off the shelf – along with North Carolina – and put it on the watch list for next summer.

Finally, we reached out to the NRSC for a comment on this. The following is from strategist Brad Dayspring:

There is a lot for conservatives to be excited about in Michigan with Terri Lynn Land’s impressive fundraising performance , strong statewide favorably, and a united party rallying behind her. The opposite is true for Detroit Congressman Gary Peters who repeatedly lied about ObamaCare in 2009 and 2010 to pass the unpopular law and now has serious credibility problems with Michigan voters. Further, Peters has a history of inflating his resume for political gain, of hypercritically criticizing Wall Street while profiting heavily from it, and of repeatedly breaking his promises to voters. It’s also worth noting that President Obama is at all time lows in Michigan in deep contrast to the state Republican party and Governor Snyder who are both very strong. Democrats have their work cut out for them and have an uphill climb in state that they started the year believing they had in the bag.


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Michigan knows better than most the failures of liberalism.

Grunt on November 16, 2013 at 4:37 PM

the same brad who said: We will not do business with disingenuous groups that push purity for profit. when attacking the senate conservative committee. if he’s got anythi8ng to say about it, stop listening and assume he is wrong.

t8stlikchkn on November 16, 2013 at 4:38 PM

It’s the classic Michigan clash. Terri’s from Kent County on the west side of the state. Peters is your typical Detroit liberal Democrat.

Go Terri!!!

Happy Nomad on November 16, 2013 at 4:46 PM

We will not do business with disingenuous groups that push purity for profit. when attacking the senate conservative committee.

t8stlikchkn on November 16, 2013 at 4:38 PM

The Senate Conservatives Fund is a useless racket that puts out far more press releases than it does money.

Are you sure you want to put your faith in a group that supposedly advocates for conservative Senate candidates and did absolutely jack-all for Steve Lonegan in New Jersey last month?

KingGold on November 16, 2013 at 4:47 PM

Just remember that all of these lowlifes voted for Liberalcare.

tmgrant on November 16, 2013 at 4:52 PM

Michigan knows better than most the failures of liberalism.

Grunt on November 16, 2013 at 4:37 PM

Hearing about it is one thing. Knowing it is quite another.

Learning from it is something that may be beyond their reach.

cozmo on November 16, 2013 at 4:56 PM

Feels like Lucy with the football.

Arnold Yabenson on November 16, 2013 at 5:02 PM

Dems and WH have the lapdogs crowing about their success @ fundraising… Michigan is a ‘tar baby’ for the Repubs, start spending money-draw it away from closer/more advantageous contests– the Dems successfully defeat the NRC by making them spend where they shouldn’t.

socalcon on November 16, 2013 at 5:05 PM

Unfortunately, you can’t fix STUPID, and we are talking about Michigan.

Those folks should have “I’m STUPID!” tattooed on their foreheads. Just like every Palestinian!

GarandFan on November 16, 2013 at 5:08 PM

Further, Peters has a history of inflating his resume for political gain, of hypercritically criticizing Wall Street while profiting heavily from it, and of repeatedly breaking his promises to voters.

And? This got Dog Eater elected and reelected as preznit.

Bishop on November 16, 2013 at 5:15 PM

So is Terri Lynn Land capable of avoiding saying something incredibly stupid about abortion, gays, sodomy or birth control that repels far more voters than it gains?

That should be about all it takes for this to be a pick-up.

cool breeze on November 16, 2013 at 5:18 PM

That should be about all it takes for this to be a pick-up.

cool breeze on November 16, 2013 at 5:18 PM

Should be if it were not Michigan where the unions and Democrat party are pretty much the same thing. Those thugs who showed up in Lansing when Governor Snyder signed right-to-work legislation into law were the face of the Democrat party.

Happy Nomad on November 16, 2013 at 5:28 PM

I’m a Michigander and I don’t live far from Peters’ district. He is a typical Dem, period. Weasely. Probably has little name recognition outside the immediate area.

Here’s more good news for conservatives:

It’s a midterm. Only 75% of blacks support Obama these days. Terri Lynn Land, to my knowledge, never built up the kind of hatred usually lavished on conservative women by liberals.

Looks to be a good race. I’m cautiously optimistic–but have had my heart broken by Michigan voters before. Alas.

Grace_is_sufficient on November 16, 2013 at 5:32 PM

Remember that a LOT of those union members are hunters and they know that Dems are gun grabbers.

I think if Land can hang gun control & Obamacare on Peters she’ll win since she should appeal to more women than the normal R nominee.

Northwoods on November 16, 2013 at 5:34 PM

Is Land somewhat conservative? Because if she is a Crist or Christie type I could give a crap less if she wins.

KMav on November 16, 2013 at 5:42 PM

Are you sure you want to put your faith in a group that supposedly advocates for conservative Senate candidates and did absolutely jack-all for Steve Lonegan in New Jersey last month?

KingGold on November 16, 2013 at 4:47 PM

so their lack of commitment to a race that was never going to be better than 60-40 is the test? relax. they’ll be there for cons that can win. and i would put more faith in them than brad dayspew.

t8stlikchkn on November 16, 2013 at 5:43 PM

…please people!…I live here!…I am praying the drones will stay home!
…you have to beat the liberals by miles in this state…or SHIT happens!

KOOLAID2 on November 16, 2013 at 5:43 PM

The only possibility for Republicans winning the Michigan US Senate seat is for the democrat machine in Detroit to be badly damaged due to Detroit bankruptcy and will not be able to get every parasite who dwells in Detroit to the polls… Other than that it is not possible…

mnjg on November 16, 2013 at 5:46 PM

Remember that a LOT of those union members are hunters and they know that Dems are gun grabbers.

I think if Land can hang gun control & Obamacare on Peters she’ll win since she should appeal to more women than the normal R nominee.

Northwoods on November 16, 2013 at 5:34 PM

A super vast majority of unions ( at least 2/3) wants to take the money from their employers and for working less… That trumps everything for the super vast majority of union workers… They will vote for someone who will take all their Constitutional Rights as long as this someone is a communist who promises them to take their employers money and give it to them…

mnjg on November 16, 2013 at 5:50 PM

It’s a midterm. Only 75% of blacks support Obama these days. Terri Lynn Land, to my knowledge, never built up the kind of hatred usually lavished on conservative women by liberals.

Looks to be a good race. I’m cautiously optimistic–but have had my heart broken by Michigan voters before. Alas.

Grace_is_sufficient on November 16, 2013 at 5:32 PM

Terri Lynn Land has built a solid credible record as Kent County Clerk and as MI Secretary of State. If Dems are going to attack her they better come armed than the usual nonsense. My guess their biggest gun is going to be the fact that she’s never been part of the inside-the-beltway club known as Congress.

That being said, neither candidate seems to be a natural fit with minority and special interest groups. Blacks and Hispanics in the inner cities of Detroit and Flint get to vote for the guy who represents Grosse Pointe or the conservative woman from the other side of the state.

Happy Nomad on November 16, 2013 at 5:53 PM

…please people!…I live here!…I am praying the drones will stay home!
…you have to beat the liberals by miles in this state…or SHIT happens!

KOOLAID2 on November 16, 2013 at 5:43 PM

By drones you, of course, mean union folk. When I was living in Grand Rapids I knew perfectly nice people who really were conservatives except when it came to voting…… they did as they were told by the unions. They didn’t like it but they were not about to disobey- as if there were a way to see who they voted for.

Happy Nomad on November 16, 2013 at 5:56 PM

If Scott Brown can win in Massachusetts against the entrenched Democratic/union machine, it can be done anywhere. Sure, he’s libertarian/RINO/Tea Party, but, seriously, are we better off with Elizabeth “Fauxcohontas” Warren (or any D) in the Senate?

You can’t get a strident socon elected in blue states like MA or MI, but you can elect someone who is better on nearly all the other conservative issues.

cool breeze on November 16, 2013 at 6:06 PM

They didn’t like it but they were not about to disobey- as if there were a way to see who they voted for.

Happy Nomad on November 16, 2013 at 5:56 PM

…it is still true…everywhere in this state!

KOOLAID2 on November 16, 2013 at 6:09 PM

She’s won statewide elections before, Peters hasn’t.

Flange on November 16, 2013 at 6:11 PM

You can’t get a strident socon elected in blue states like MA or MI, but you can elect someone who is better on nearly all the other conservative issues.

cool breeze on November 16, 2013 at 6:06 PM

A large number of the parasites have to stay home for a Republican to win the US Senate seat in Michigan…

mnjg on November 16, 2013 at 6:11 PM

She’s won statewide elections before, Peters hasn’t.

Flange on November 16, 2013 at 6:11 PM

That is because a large number parasites do not even bother and check the box for the secretary of state… They do not even know what a secretary of state job is… For a Republican to win the Michigan US Senate seat a large number of parasites has to stay home…

mnjg on November 16, 2013 at 6:14 PM

Happy Nomad on November 16, 2013 at 5:56 PM

This is for Torre, an example of gerrymandering.

Flange on November 16, 2013 at 6:14 PM

If Scott Brown can win in Massachusetts against the entrenched Democratic/union machine, it can be done anywhere. Sure, he’s libertarian/RINO/Tea Party, but, seriously, are we better off with Elizabeth “Fauxcohontas” Warren (or any D) in the Senate?

You can’t get a strident socon elected in blue states like MA or MI, but you can elect someone who is better on nearly all the other conservative issues.

cool breeze on November 16, 2013 at 6:06 PM

Strident might be arguable, but if you can get a pro-life governor in New Jersey, a pro-life governor in Maine, and a pro-life senator in New Hampshire (all of whom also oppose gay marriage), somehow I think the GOP can do better than Scott Brown in Massachusetts.

Stoic Patriot on November 16, 2013 at 6:19 PM

This is for Torre, an example of gerrymandering.

Flange on November 16, 2013 at 6:14 PM

LOL! You notice the cut-out by Founders Sport Park? I wonder who lives there- I bet it is the neighboring Congresscritter.

Happy Nomad on November 16, 2013 at 6:30 PM

Michigan knows better than most the failures of liberalism.

Grunt on November 16, 2013 at 4:37 PM

I doubt that very seriously. Liberals never understand the failure of liberalism. It’s always the wrong person attempting to implement the policy.

They’re already turning on Obama for ObamaCare in this regard. They don’t believe the core policies of ObamaCare are bad, they just think Obama implemented it poorly.

ButterflyDragon on November 16, 2013 at 6:31 PM

…it is still true…everywhere in this state!

KOOLAID2 on November 16, 2013 at 6:09 PM

I know! But how do you de-program an entire state suffering from Stockholm Syndrome?

I also lived in post-Katrina New Orleans. I kid you not that there should have been some sort of public mental health counseling going on. An entire city suffering from PTSD and nobody brave enough to say it. Lots of pretending that everything would go back to the way things were before the storm; even as the new reality was all around them.

Happy Nomad on November 16, 2013 at 6:35 PM

So will the GOP actually help the candidate or simply blow the state off like they did with Virginia?

Jack_Burton on November 16, 2013 at 6:42 PM

Strident might be arguable, but if you can get a pro-life governor in New Jersey, a pro-life governor in Maine, and a pro-life senator in New Hampshire (all of whom also oppose gay marriage), somehow I think the GOP can do better than Scott Brown in Massachusetts.

Stoic Patriot on November 16, 2013 at 6:19 PM

No, the GOP couldn’t have done better than Scott Brown in Massachusetts for at least a decade on either side. Past alternatives would have been people like Weld, Celucci or Charlie Baker, whose positions you would find negligibly different from Scott Brown’s. Future candidates will be at least as socially liberal, at least if they don’t want to lose by landslides.

The candidate can be pro-life, as long as they articulately respect the fact that others disagree on the issue and its limits in good faith and that a significant majority of people in the state are pro-choice, at least until viability.

cool breeze on November 16, 2013 at 6:46 PM

The opposite is true for Detroit Congressman Gary Peters who repeatedly lied about ObamaCare in 2009 and 2010 to pass the unpopular law and now has serious credibility problems with Michigan voters. Further, Peters has a history of inflating his resume for political gain, of hypercritically criticizing Wall Street while profiting heavily from it, and of repeatedly breaking his promises to voters.

…my Bride just informed me…Gary Peter’s was one of 39 Democrats that voted for the Fred Upton Bill!
.
.
.
DemoRat Gary Peters is a slimy political prostitute…with gangrene gonorrhea!

KOOLAID2 on November 16, 2013 at 7:02 PM

So will the GOP actually help the candidate or simply blow the state off like they did with Virginia?

Jack_Burton on November 16, 2013 at 6:42 PM

…they’ll be concentrating their money and efforts to get Senator… Ms. Lindsey Graham Cracker…. re-elected in South Carolina!
…remember!….Detroit is dead!

KOOLAID2 on November 16, 2013 at 7:08 PM

That being said, neither candidate seems to be a natural fit with minority and special interest groups. Blacks and Hispanics in the inner cities of Detroit and Flint get to vote for the guy who represents Grosse Pointe or the conservative woman from the other side of the state.

Happy Nomad on November 16, 2013 at 5:53 PM

Exactly this, Happy Nomad.

I hoped to take a real run at Stabenow last year…but no, sigh. Ugh. Hoping for better things in 2014.

Grace_is_sufficient on November 16, 2013 at 7:09 PM

Questions for those from Michigan:

1) Is Land a Conservative or an Institutional? If she is Conservative; if she gets the nomination the national and state parties will write her off.

2) How strong is the Democrats’ vote fraud in Michigan? Here in Colorado, I estimate that you have to beat the Democrat by 3-5% to have a chance at winning in a statewide race. I am guessing that the margin of fraud is higher there.

3) As Secretary of State, has she taken any stands on voter ID or vote fraud?

Subotai Bahadur on November 16, 2013 at 7:09 PM

…my Bride just informed me…Gary Peter’s was one of 39 Democrats that voted for the Fred Upton Bill!

KOOLAID2 on November 16, 2013 at 7:02 PM

Really? I wonder if that has anything to do with his upcoming campaign to replace Carl Levin? He voted for Obamacare along with his pal Bart Stupak. Why isn’t he defending that vote as the right thing to do? Fred’s bill is going nowhere but it does make a statement. One that apparently Peters wanted to hide behind so we wouldn’t notice he voted to kill decent healthcare in America. I would hope that Michiganders are not that stupid.

Happy Nomad on November 16, 2013 at 7:17 PM

Questions for those from Michigan:

1) Is Land a Conservative or an Institutional? If she is Conservative; if she gets the nomination the national and state parties will write her off.

2) How strong is the Democrats’ vote fraud in Michigan? Here in Colorado, I estimate that you have to beat the Democrat by 3-5% to have a chance at winning in a statewide race. I am guessing that the margin of fraud is higher there.

3) As Secretary of State, has she taken any stands on voter ID or vote fraud?

Subotai Bahadur on November 16, 2013 at 7:09 PM

My perspective-

1) She’s a MI conservative in the same way that Fred Upton is a MI conservative. More Gerald Ford and less Ted Cruz. In other words, she isn’t a social conservative. But she isn’t an “institutional” either. Both as Kent County Clerk and MI Secretary of State she’s shown fair effective leadership. The United States Senate could do worse.

2) In MI it isn’t so much about vote fraud as it is about beating the union endorsements. The state has a good and fair electoral system. That being said, it is the only place I have lived where you can vote a straight ticket by merely filling the oval next to the picture of the donkey or elephant. I never did it. I think that voting means electing candidates and not parties.

3) As Secretary of State, Land has indeed been a strong advocate of voter ID.

But, of course, I’m biased and hope she wins. She and not Peters is what MI and America needs in the Senate.

Happy Nomad on November 16, 2013 at 7:28 PM

Hoping for better things in 2014.

Grace_is_sufficient on November 16, 2013 at 7:09 PM

Amen to that!

Happy Nomad on November 16, 2013 at 7:29 PM

…you are CORRECT in your 7:28 PM comment…DEAD ON!
.
.
.

I would hope that Michiganders are not that stupid.

Happy Nomad on November 16, 2013 at 7:17 PM

…they ARE!
…Senator Dumb Deb Stabintheback…example number one!…and everything else…is history!

KOOLAID2 on November 16, 2013 at 7:34 PM

I moved from Texas to Michigan early this year and I’m ready for 2014.

1 more vote for Land.

Peri Winkle on November 16, 2013 at 7:54 PM

KOOLAID2 on November 16, 2013 at 7:34 PM

…you are CORRECT in your 7:28 PM comment…DEAD ON!

Thank you!

I would hope that Michiganders are not that stupid.

Happy Nomad on November 16, 2013 at 7:17 PM

…they ARE!
…Senator Dumb Deb Stabintheback…example number one!

When I was living in Grand Rapids, I was in a job that had some interaction with the Congressional delegations at military-related events. Vern Ehlers people never showed up though sometimes Pete Hoekstra’s people did. Carl Levin’s people never showed up. Debbie Stabenow’s people were always there. I’m not saying I’m a fan of Debbie but I am a fan of her staff because they made the effort.

Not the right place to tell the story, but it took effort on my (and others) part to “allow” Jennifer Granholm to review the Grand Rapids Memorial Day parade. Sitting Governor with no fans among the organizers.

Happy Nomad on November 16, 2013 at 7:55 PM

peters is a rep from snooty white people cities..
money towns…but no black vote to speak of…
im not sure how tight he is with the unions..
but without the half million black votes Detroit gave BHO…
she might just have a shot…
she should also point out that Levin and liberal rule has turned
this once great state and its largest city into a dump…

going2mars on November 16, 2013 at 7:55 PM

This one is the battle of the Nerds, but I think Land pulls it out in the end. She’s independently wealthy and quite good, if folksy, on the campaign trail. Dave Camp would have walked into the seat. I can’t imagine why he didn’t run…or Rogers either.

AmeriCuda on November 16, 2013 at 7:56 PM

Peri Winkle on November 16, 2013 at 7:54 PM

what city are you near..??

going2mars on November 16, 2013 at 7:59 PM

I moved from Texas to Michigan early this year and I’m ready for 2014.

Peri Winkle on November 16, 2013 at 7:54 PM

Really? I hope you got a discount on the truck for moving in the opposite direction!

Seriously, I’d move back to Michigan in a heartbeat if there were jobs there in my area of expertise.

Happy Nomad on November 16, 2013 at 8:02 PM

Just the fact that Peters felt the need to vote for Kate Upton’s Uncles bill tells you this race it tight.
Land is just shy of what I would call a conservative, but right in the wheelhouse of a Republican that can be elected statewide.

AmeriCuda on November 16, 2013 at 8:02 PM

AmeriCuda on November 16, 2013 at 7:56 PM

rogers is my rep from here…
made me happy last week grilling KS about Oblundercare Security…
‘have you ever run a end to end security check on this site’

KS….what is Security sir..???????

going2mars on November 16, 2013 at 8:03 PM

Time to stop depending on the rinos who elected the Punk– Terry McCauliffe in Va. and nationalize this race. Let’s get Land elected on our own. Do we really need these rinos or can we do it ourself?

rodguy911 on November 16, 2013 at 8:21 PM

Just the fact that Peters felt the need to vote for Kate Upton’s Uncles bill tells you this race it tight.

AmeriCuda on November 16, 2013 at 8:02 PM

Just the fact you had to interject Kate Upton into the mix tells me that you should not be taken seriously.

Happy Nomad on November 16, 2013 at 8:22 PM

Now that I am back in Michigan as a permanent voting resident, I will work to elect a Republican!

usedtobeinmich on November 16, 2013 at 8:23 PM

Now that I am back in Michigan as a permanent voting resident, I will work to elect a Republican!

usedtobeinmich on November 16, 2013 at 8:23 PM

…please come on Hot Air more often too!

KOOLAID2 on November 16, 2013 at 8:33 PM

…please come on Hot Air more often too!

I moved from Texas to Michigan early this year and I’m ready for 2014.

1 more vote for Land.

Peri Winkle on November 16, 2013 at 7:54 PM

…you too!

KOOLAID2 on November 16, 2013 at 8:35 PM

Detroit (60 years ago) –> rust belt –> Richardson (25 years) –> Adrian

Peri Winkle on November 16, 2013 at 9:24 PM

Peri Winkle on November 16, 2013 at 9:24 PM

clarkston here…were nrighbors almost

going2mars on November 16, 2013 at 10:13 PM

Peri Winkle on November 16, 2013 at 9:24 PM

Ahh we share the same Congressman, Walberg. We could do worse than him. Let’s see if we can defeat the unctuous Peters. Ugh.

8 weight on November 16, 2013 at 10:59 PM

Michigan has kept Levin in office for decades and seems happy with Klochubar, one of the dumbest people on the planet. If Land can raise enough and take it to the Democrat, more power to her, but this could be one of those money pits that ends up disappointing Republicans.

Adjoran on November 17, 2013 at 12:30 AM

Happy Nomad.
The joke obviously went over your head.
What a dolt.

AmeriCuda on November 17, 2013 at 12:31 AM

Happy….Debbie Stabenow is like, so like, awesome!!!….Nomad
Now it all makes sense.

AmeriCuda on November 17, 2013 at 12:38 AM

Happy ‘Walter Mitty’ Nomad.
Keep ‘em coming, your know-it-all schtick is hilarious.

AmeriCuda on November 17, 2013 at 12:44 AM

Michigan has kept Levin in office for decades and seems happy with Klochubar, one of the dumbest people on the planet. If Land can raise enough and take it to the Democrat, more power to her, but this could be one of those money pits that ends up disappointing Republicans.

Adjoran on November 17, 2013 at 12:30 AM

Klobuchar’s in Minnesota.

22044 on November 17, 2013 at 1:16 AM

Klobuchar’s in Minnesota.

22044 on November 17, 2013 at 1:16 AM

Oh, right. Another Democratic M-state with lakes and unions.

Stabenow isn’t winning any genius awards, either.

Adjoran on November 17, 2013 at 1:40 AM

Land has a terrific chance,she is well respected, any previous SOS in Michigan does.

While it is no lie that the unions had their day here, our SOS elected officials are almost always republican…period…it’s how it is voted. For years even with democrat complete control, the SOS is generally a republican.

We have always been fortunate in that respect. Anything the SOS is suppose to touch, including elections, go quite smoothly. I take my blessings where I can find them.

shar61 on November 17, 2013 at 7:26 AM

Thank you KOOLAID2, but I tend to just be a stalker…

usedtobeinmich on November 17, 2013 at 9:01 PM