Report: Jeb Bush might jump into 2016 race if Christie looks weak outside the northeast

posted at 8:31 pm on November 13, 2013 by Allahpundit

Alternate headline: “Second look at Chris Christie?”

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie gets all the love as the current GOP front-runner for 2016 (to the extent there can even be a front runner three years out.) But there is growing chatter in elite New York financial circles that former Florida Governor Jeb Bush is giving more serious consideration to getting in the race, especially if it appears at any point that Christie is not drawing big national appeal beyond the northeast. Several plugged in GOP sources said Bush has moved from almost certainly staying out to a 30 percent chance of getting in. The “70/30” odds pop up in so many conversations they almost seem like circulated talking points.

“I think he could run,” said one senior Republican who now works in the financial industry. “The environment is shaping up well for him. Republicans want someone who is competent and who can win and that’s Jeb.” Of course it could also be Christie. Some of the chatter ratcheted up because Bush was in NYC on Tuesday and spoke at the SIFMA conference and took some hard shots at President Obama for taking “victory dances” after fiscal fights and not building relationships with Republicans that could help on tax reform, immigration and other issues. Bush also slammed Obamacare saying it would collapse of its own weight and the GOP should be “ready with an alternative.”

I take it this is just Bushworld’s way of warning Republican millionaires not to get too caught up in Christiemania before Jeb has decided definitively that he’s not running. Needless to say, if they both jumped in, it’d be a knife fight between them for the establishment vote in the same way that Paul and Cruz will be fighting for the tea-party vote. What exactly is the threshold of “big national appeal,” though, that Christie would need to meet in order to convince Jeb that he can play everywhere? Or better yet, when would he have to meet it? If a poll comes out next month showing Christie’s approval sky high in the northeast but only moderately favorable elsewhere, is that the smoking gun? Is it a smoking gun if, after he takes over the RGA, he goes down to South Carolina to campaign for Lindsey Graham and Graham gets crushed anyway? Or are Jeb’s pals imagining a much later scenario, after the primary campaign has begun in 2015? Imagine it’s June of that year and Christie trails badly in evangelical-heavy Iowa. Is that’s Jeb’s cue to proclaim CC another Giuliani who’ll crumble before the tea-party onslaught, with the Bush brand (shudder) the only thing standing between moderate Republicans and the Cruzpocalypse?

If that’s what he’s thinking, he’d better think again. I think many righties (but not all) could very grudgingly tolerate Jeb being nominated if he got in reasonably early, paid his dues by enduring a tough campaign, and then presented himself as the only man with enough name recognition to give Hillary a serious run in the general. If he jumps in late as some alleged party savior, though, it’ll be a disaster. The perception, rightly, would be that the establishment’s trying to foist someone from the GOP’s royal family on the Republican elecorate at the eleventh hour, almost as a sort of coup. I think you’d see many “somewhat conservative” voters resist that, either by rallying to Christie or to the tea-party champion as an alternative. Doesn’t mean Jeb would or could be stopped, but it’d inspire a lot of bad feelings. The way to do this if it’s going to be done is to be forthright. Frankly, it wouldn’t be all bad for Christie if Jeb tried it: He’d lose some big money he was counting on but he’d also gain a chance to present himself as the more conservative of the two centrist options. And it would highlight his appeal as a nontraditional politician. If you recoil at the idea of reinstalling the Bush dynasty on the throne, what better way to send that message if you’re a non-tea-partier than by backing the blue-collar guy from Jersey?

Speaking of dethroning dynasties, dude:

cc

I almost didn’t post that data just because it’s so, so, so obviously a gauge of name recognition, not any reasoned consideration of the two candidates. Christie’s gotten glowing media coverage over the past week due to his Jersey landslide and he was well liked by national media before that because of his chumminess with Obama after Sandy. Here’s his reward. He does better head to head against Hillary than either Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, or Paul Ryan — although, interestingly, all four of them have gained a few points against her in hypothetical match-ups since last month. I think that’s a function of Hillary’s bipartisan popularity dimming a bit as she transitions from her image as secretary of state to likely Democratic nominee, but maybe the ObamaCare disaster and/or a post-shutdown rebound for Republicans is feeding into it a tiny bit too.

This data set is interesting, though:

goodprez

Quinnipiac asked that same question about Hillary, Paul, Cruz, Ryan, and Joe Biden. The only one of those five besides Christie who was net positive among independents was Clinton, and she was only a few points above water at +6 (49/43). Christie is +27. Even more amazing, he’s only six points underwater among Democrats. No one else polled is even remotely close to breaking even with voters from the opposing party. And for all his vaunted RINO-ness, his approval among Republicans is second — barely — to Paul Ryan’s. He’s ahead of both Paul and Cruz in that metric. Don’t read too much into any of that: Like Hillary herself, a big part of Christie’s popularity right now is the sense that he’s a nonpartisan figure because people know him mainly from Sandy relief. That’ll fade as he starts campaigning in earnest and as the left starts playing up the more conservative parts of his record. He’s got quite a cushion at the moment, though, among voters whom the GOP would like to steal. Maybe Jeb can top it, but the bar Christie’s setting is high.


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Please, please, no! Let’s never, ever again mention the utterly stupid, moronic idea of Jeb Bush running for President!

thuja on November 13, 2013 at 9:50 PM

Ditto!! Can’t we find a common sense person? I’m so tired of arrogance & dictators.

bluefox on November 13, 2013 at 9:53 PM

bluefox on November 13, 2013 at 9:48 PM

Nah…

This is likely Bush Inc. telling Cruz and Perry they have the Texas donor base locked up so don’t bother runnin.

workingclass artist on November 13, 2013 at 9:52 PM

Perhaps. I’m not into where all the money bags are, but GW almost got beaten in 2000. Just a thot.

bluefox on November 13, 2013 at 9:57 PM

Jeb is running for Vice President. His wife doesn’t want the spotlight of being FLOTUS and no one in their right mind thinks a Bush can win the presidency.

Punchenko on November 13, 2013 at 9:57 PM

Another Bush. How exciting. How unexpected. How f*cked up.

rrpjr on November 13, 2013 at 10:00 PM

Common Core will be one of his undoings if he makes an attempt at national office.

GaltBlvnAtty on November 13, 2013 at 10:03 PM

Hey AP, how about a rumor mill on Bush senior. I mean he’s in a wheelchair and all, could be like our RINO FDR. He only served one term.
msupertas on November 13, 2013 at 9:22 PM

Heh. Good one. Thanks for the chuckle.

LegendHasIt on November 13, 2013 at 10:04 PM

victor82 on November 13, 2013 at 9:07 PM

She doesn’t even read these posts. ; )

Bmore on November 13, 2013 at 10:11 PM

Anyone seriously concerned about Common Core and the Federal Government’s coercion (not “voluntary” or “state led”) of states to adopt a one-size fits set of standards will NEVER EVER EVER vote for Jeb Bush.

EVER. That’s probably the reason I won’t vote for Christie either.

It’s the educational version of Obamacare. It’s centralized control that does not reduce dependence of states on the Federal government and creates more Federal control in education.

manateespirit on November 13, 2013 at 10:19 PM

I can see it now: Bush and Christie battling it out for the GOP nomination as the last two standing. It would be great, because I could make other plans on election day in 2016.

Physics Geek on November 13, 2013 at 10:23 PM

Oh, great… Two of the three people who aren’t getting my vote no matter how many GOP say, “ZOMG you would rather have shrillery/fauxcahontas/otherdemrecentlyinnews! If s/he wins it will be all your fault and not in any way related to GOP platform, lack of fiscal conservativism, lack if constitutional fealty, or other conservatives single issue voting on matters that shouldn’t even be federal matters but rather state matters, such as abortion. It will be all your fault for drawing a line and not voting the lesser of two evils for the eighth time ina row!1!!!1!!!!”

deepdiver on November 13, 2013 at 10:28 PM

Can we just agree on two things? No neophytes. No legacies. I know, I know, that knocks out most of the field (Rand Paul twice!), but I think we’ll be better off for it in the long run.

calbear on November 13, 2013 at 10:44 PM

The fact that Jeb’s people are getting ready to run him and that the Donor Class thinks he’s Jesus is Exhibit “A” for why they call the G.O.P. the “Stupid Party”.

victor82 on November 13, 2013 at 10:51 PM

I wish it was just stupidity, but alas it’s more than that. Their fight now to eliminate the tea party tells anyone that listens what and who they are. Jeb is just the next in line that will tote the line for the elitist in Washington that they think has a chance. Much more the pity, but they will do anything to stop a conservative getting nomination BECAUSE it would expose them. They would have to fight against their own candidate like Rove did in so many elections. Think O’Donnell and the one from Alaska.

jainphx on November 13, 2013 at 11:21 PM

Bush fatigue and amnesty are high hurdles for Jeb.

OxyCon on November 13, 2013 at 11:35 PM

Can we just agree on two things? No neophytes. No legacies. I know, I know, that knocks out most of the field (Rand Paul twice!), but I think we’ll be better off for it in the long run.

calbear on November 13, 2013 at 10:44 PM

.
Yeah, Hillary twice, too. You better tell her.

ExpressoBold on November 13, 2013 at 11:47 PM

Right. Because America is going to go from electing a guy named Barry, Barack, Hussein, Sotoro, Obozo, to Fricking Jeb. Bush.

Yeah. Right.

Wake me up when this is over.

KMC1 on November 13, 2013 at 11:48 PM

Another Bush, just what we do not need. Two losses in the two Presidential races, with moderate candidates, and the Republican establishment wants another……..wait for it…….moderate candidate. Hopeless.

kjatexas on November 14, 2013 at 12:01 AM

Report: Jeb Bush might jump into 2016 race if Christie looks weak outside the northeast

Hell No.

Alternate headline: “Second look at Chris Christie?”

Hell No.

Theophile on November 14, 2013 at 1:56 AM

Yeah, Christie might be weak outside the Northeast, but thanks to all of the cheerleading and propping up, there’s no way to stop him from kareening to a disaster.

Please stop forcing candidates to run. We’ve seen what happened to Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson, and Jon Huntsman and it’s just not pretty.

The Nerve on November 14, 2013 at 2:15 AM

I hope he does jump in. It would be nice to have the RINOs split the primary vote instead of the conservatives for a change.

gophergirl on November 13, 2013 at 8:47 PM

If it’s between Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, Peter King, John McCain, Arnold Schwarzenegger – this election will get split 7 ways to Sunday! The only question is if the actual base candidates will be as large…?!

The Nerve on November 14, 2013 at 2:44 AM

I love it. Let Jeb, Kristie Kreme and McCant bloody each other in the primaries trying to out-RINO each other. That way a conservative will wind up the nominee, and we can actually win.

Myron Falwell on November 13, 2013 at 8:40 PM

There’s just one wrinkle in your plan. They tend to all shred the conservatives first, clearing the field of them, before they turn on each other. Then you’re just left with whoever was the most willing to steamroll other Republicans.

CurtZHP on November 13, 2013 at 8:50 PM

Don’t worry – we’ll have somebody out there at all costs. Make that person a dark horse. Christie. Schwarzenegger. Jeb. McCain – they’re slimy enough with their negatives, also.

The Nerve on November 14, 2013 at 2:51 AM

Wait. Whose turn is it?

Fallon on November 13, 2013 at 9:27 PM

Gulp! It’s Rick Santorum’s turn….

The Nerve on November 14, 2013 at 3:10 AM

So you’re telling me that we have to pick one of Tweedledum or Tweedledoo to face off in the national election with Tweedledee.

No thanks. At that point the urge becomes one to scratch the scab off big time and vote for a non-Tweedle, Cruz, Paul, who as a write-in if need be.

{^_^}

herself on November 14, 2013 at 5:14 AM

Nooooooo…..

albill on November 14, 2013 at 6:31 AM

Stay in FLA, Jeb. We don’t need another DIABLO.

Quartermaster on November 14, 2013 at 6:53 AM

The stink of RINO flopsweat is getting nauseating.

Lonetown on November 14, 2013 at 7:02 AM

This is likely Bush Inc. telling Cruz and Perry they have the Texas donor base locked up so don’t bother runnin.

workingclass artist on November 13, 2013 at 9:52 PM

Dewhurst had the Texas donor base locked up too.

TxAnn56 on November 14, 2013 at 7:07 AM

Report: Jeb Bush might jump into 2016 race if Christie looks weak outside the northeast

McBush vs Fat Maverick

M240H on November 14, 2013 at 7:46 AM

Neither Bush nor Christie will get my vote.

zoyclem on November 14, 2013 at 7:56 AM

We get it! We really do!

Hot Air’s agenda to elect Chris Christie or at the very least another lefty republican is understood by all.

There are so many great news stories out there and you continuously push stories about Chris Christie and other morons.

Amjean on November 14, 2013 at 8:11 AM

The gop Ruling class fought Reagan for decades. His fatal mistake?….picking Bush!

Please don’t let that happen again.

Palin /Cruz

Cruz Palin

Or some variation of that…

PappyD61 on November 14, 2013 at 8:36 AM

Conservatives, where are our champions? Where? Reagan had to run in 3 primaries before finally winning the nomination. All we do is throw turd-balls at moderates and mock RINOs but where are OUR champions? It’s like deja vu every 4 years.

rhombus on November 14, 2013 at 8:39 AM

If you are going for a Dynasty, you need generational change. You can’t have brothers share the throne. One must kill the other or it has to pass to one of their children. Failing that, the crown must pass to the next monarch candidate, Princess Chelsea Clinton.

BL@KBIRD on November 14, 2013 at 8:50 AM

I read Liz Cheney is running 50 points behind in her Senate run.

50.

Marcus on November 14, 2013 at 9:16 AM

I read Liz Cheney is running 50 points behind in her Senate run.

50.

Marcus on November 14, 2013 at 9:16 AM

If only she would EXPLAIN why the hell she’s running, her numbers might improve.

Pork-Chop on November 14, 2013 at 9:38 AM

‘Looks like a great presidential ticket’

http://twitchy.com/2013/11/13/looks-like-a-great-presidential-ticket-mia-love-and-allen-west-together-in-utah-pic/

Pork-Chop on November 14, 2013 at 9:54 AM

If Jeb! declares, we’ll need to find a stealth candidate to run in the primaries against him. If it works for the left, why not us? The country doesn’t need another Bush or Clinton right now(or ever) if we are to get back some semblance of what we used to be.

Kissmygrits on November 14, 2013 at 10:04 AM

Mitt MCBUSH 2016 !!!

PappyD61 on November 14, 2013 at 10:44 AM

Huh, are there any other Bushes we can choose from? May I see the menu?

Akzed on November 14, 2013 at 10:44 AM

Mmmm… I don’t think I’ll have any more Bushes, thanks.

Akzed on November 14, 2013 at 10:54 AM

One limp d!ck for another.
Both fat.
No thanks.

HornetSting on November 14, 2013 at 1:01 PM

Hey, look!

Another GOP candidate who would make me vote third party were he to become the nominee!

No effing thanks, Jeb. Stay at home.

DRayRaven on November 14, 2013 at 2:32 PM

Chris Christie gets all the love as the. . . growing chatter in elite New York financial circles. . . Jeb Bush is giving more serious consideration. . .

Great News from the field!
TWO FAT RINOs and a Skinny exRINO to target
for extinction in the primary hunting parties!

“Let’s Roll”

On Watch on November 14, 2013 at 3:48 PM

This news makes me want to drive to Sedona to waterboard McCain into running again.

victor82 on November 14, 2013 at 4:31 PM

this is like getting a choice between Lard and Pork Rinds for dessert

entagor on November 14, 2013 at 5:48 PM

Jeb, quedarse en casa.

gbear on November 14, 2013 at 5:54 PM

Only the current GOP leadership could consider Jeb Bush “electable.”

Great to see the party planning another loss in 2016.

Dave in San Diego on November 14, 2013 at 6:32 PM

Yankee RINO-meet Southron RINO.Both not electable-ask McCain and Romney-sheesh!

redware on November 15, 2013 at 8:45 AM

I’m so sick of the ‘we can only win with a RINO’ meme. I don’t seem to remember a President McCain (blech) or President Romney (yawn).

Conservchik on November 15, 2013 at 9:14 PM

No to the Christie bullyboy and no to a Bush*t dynasty.

Conservchik on November 15, 2013 at 9:18 PM

The Bush family thinks the White House is rightfully theirs.

Feedie on November 15, 2013 at 11:17 PM

No more Bush, thanks, I’m full.

Open The Door on November 16, 2013 at 12:51 PM

“N, no se puede”

Let’s not have another latino-pandering RINO anywhere near the levers of power

virgo on November 16, 2013 at 10:01 PM

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