Crumble: Another national poll shows Obama’s approval slipping below 40%

posted at 6:21 pm on November 12, 2013 by Allahpundit

All around one of the worst polls of his presidency, and the first time Quinnipiac’s ever found him below 40 percent approval since he took office in 2009. One quote puts the damage in perspective: “President Obama’s job approval rating has fallen to the level of former President George W. Bush at the same period of his Presidency.”

Here’s the killer data set. Friendly advice for aspiring presidential candidates: Don’t go around telling millions of people thousands of times that they can keep their insurance if they like it when you know they’ll eventually find out that they can’t.

qp

As amazing as that is, “only” 46 percent think Obama knowingly deceived them on “if you like your plan.” Imagine how these numbers might move if/when the rest of the public discovers the truth.

He’s at 39 percent approval overall, the same as Pew had him last week. And believe it or not, that overall rating is slightly higher than his rating on discrete issues. He’s at 38 percent or lower on the economy, immigration, the federal budget, foreign policy, and our old friend health care, where he stands at a robust 36/60 split. That’s not his all-time low on that subject; he hit 35 percent in February 2010, a month before his pet boondoggle was signed into law. Sixty percent, however, is a new high in disapproval. And it draws from many demographics:

qp2

The one big caveat here is that this is Quinnipiac’s first national poll since October 1, which means it incorporates reaction to both the shutdown and to the ongoing ObamaCare car crash. How much of O’s downturn is due to one versus the other? No way to tell — although read this post on the Pew poll last week for a few thoughts. Quinnipiac did find in this poll that support for ObamaCare itself has dropped from 45/47 on October 1 to 39/55 now. I think that’s probably less a new normal for the law than a reversion to the level of opposition it’s had for years after a brief honeymoon last month following the launch, but either way, that’s not the trend Democrats wanted to see in November. In fact, pay close attention to the crosstabs and you’ll find that Hispanics now disapprove of the law 44/50. Their support for O-Care is one of the things that helped Obama to a landslide win among that demographic last year. If they become disillusioned about it, who knows what that means for 2016?

And yet, and yet, polls are merely snapshots in time. Obama will bounce back from this sooner or later, right? Maybe not:

In fact, no president in the last 60 years has watched his approval ratings bounce back during their second term. Either they didn’t make it to another stint in office (Ford, Carter, and George H.W. Bush), never dipped in the first place (Eisenhower and Clinton) or were removed from office at the nadir of their popularity (Nixon). Lyndon Johnson recovered somewhat, but only after announcing he would not seek another term. Ronald Reagan dropped from the low 60s to the high 40s amid the Iran-Contra scandal, and his popularity never recovered entirely until his last months in office. But it also never fell to lows experienced by Truman or Bush.

“In a second term, once a president’s numbers decline, they never come back up,” Ed Goeas, a Republican pollster, told reporters last week during a breakfast hosted by the Christian Science Monitor. “There’s a good reason for that: they don’t have a reelection campaign going on. They don’t have the air cover on air. They’re not putting back together a campaign in contrast to the opposition.”…

Obama and his supporters like to say he’ll never face reelection again, so his numbers don’t matter. But other Democrats — namely red-state Sens. Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, Mark Pryor of Arkansas of North, Kay Hagan of North Carolina and Mark Begich of Alaska — will face voters again, during next year’s midterms. And a slumping president has been nothing but bad news for his party colleagues.

A big economic rebound could help him recover, but even there, how big would it have to be to swallow up the endless coming cycles of middling-to-bad-to-disastrous news about ObamaCare? He’s stuck. Get ready for Democrats to abandon ship.


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Comment pages: 1 2

PolAgnostic on November 12, 2013 at 7:53 PM

Thanks, very helpful.

TXUS on November 12, 2013 at 8:00 PM

BWWWAAAAAAAaaahahahahahaha!

I know…we’re not supposed to joke about Hitler or compare idiot Democrats to Nazis; we’re not supposed to use Hitler films to make fun of O’Bonehead. I just can’t help it … this is mockery of the finest sort.

Jaibones on November 12, 2013 at 8:01 PM

“In a second term, once a president’s numbers decline, they never come back up,” Ed Goeas, a Republican pollster, told reporters last week during a breakfast hosted by the Christian Science Monitor. “There’s a good reason for that: they don’t have a reelection campaign going on. They don’t have the air cover on air. They’re not putting back together a campaign in contrast to the opposition.”

I wonder what those super-geniuses who advocate a single 6-year presidential term think of this.

Attila (Pillage Idiot) on November 12, 2013 at 8:06 PM

Obama will be frantically looking for a DC Church to start going to very, very soon.

portlandon on November 12, 2013 at 6:33 PM

Great call. Like the Rapist Clinton, he’ll suddenly remember how valuable the Fake Christian propaganda was for him. But they’ve had that in their political back-pocket the whole time, haven’t they?

Jaibones on November 12, 2013 at 8:08 PM

The sad thing is it should be below 20%.

bgibbs1000 on November 12, 2013 at 8:37 PM

Boom.

RCP Average: -11.9

His all time low before this week was -10.2. The bottom is falling out.

I asked this earlier in the week. It bears repeating.

How low does his approval have to get before Repeal and Replace actually becomes an option? Before 2017?

Yes, I know he’ll veto anything like that, but a few more months of polls like this, and the Dems will be looking for any kind of life preserver they can find. Will they override an Obama veto?

Chris of Rights on November 12, 2013 at 8:51 PM

Ohmygod…I haven’t laughed that hard at a Downfall redub in years.

The match-up between text and visual was one of the best yet.

budfox on November 12, 2013 at 8:53 PM

Most people would still rather smoke a joint with him than with Bush. So at least he’s got that.

ardenenoch on November 12, 2013 at 9:21 PM

How low does his approval have to get before Repeal and Replace actually becomes an option? Before 2017?

Chris of Rights on November 12, 2013 at 8:51 PM

Repeal and Replace 0dumbo?
I don’t think PPACA should be replaced in the traditional sense. Just push tort reform and allow free competition across state lines for healthcare.

freedomfirst on November 12, 2013 at 10:11 PM

How low does his approval have to get before Repeal and Replace actually becomes an option? Before 2017?

Chris of Rights on November 12, 2013 at 8:51 PM

Repeal and Replace 0dumbo?
I don’t think PPACA should be replaced in the traditional sense. Just push tort reform and allow free competition across state lines for healthcare.

freedomfirst on November 12, 2013 at 10:11 PM

Check. The ‘repeal and replace’ narrative is the Democratics’ last line of defense.

What we had before Obamacare is a magnitude better than Obamacare. Get rid of the ugly beast, then maybe open discussion on some minor tweaks, mostly DEREGULATION.

slickwillie2001 on November 12, 2013 at 10:26 PM

Most people would still rather smoke a joint with him than with Bush. So at least he’s got that.

ardenenoch on November 12, 2013 at 9:21 PM

Dave’s Not Here.

BBC

Private discussions held by George W Bush before he became president suggest he used marijuana, but would not admit it for fear of setting a bad example.

Rest of story

Del Dolemonte on November 12, 2013 at 10:53 PM

You need to deal with the people who can no longer survive risk underwriting. The rest of it, the market could fix if it is allowed to.

Zomcon JEM on November 12, 2013 at 11:09 PM

I inherited these numbers from George Bush!

Herb on November 13, 2013 at 9:45 AM

51?…..wow.

PappyD61 on November 13, 2013 at 6:14 PM

wait until 2014 and 90 million with Private plans get them transformed..

PappyD61 on November 13, 2013 at 6:16 PM

Comment pages: 1 2