Are Republicans better off electorally than they think?

posted at 3:21 pm on November 8, 2013 by Bruce McQuain

Andrew Kohut thinks so:

Tucked away in recent polls—which have documented the extraordinary anger directed at the Republican Party during the shutdown crisis—are measures of clear disappointment with the Democratic Party. The disappointment is substantial, and it raises big questions about the 2014 midterms.

The Republican Party’s favorable ratings fell substantially in most every national survey that uses this yard stick, declining to 28% in the Gallup poll at one point. Yet when the GOP was matched up against the Democrats on key political measures, it did not look so bad.

A mid-October Pew Research national poll found that a plurality regard the Republicans as “better able to deal with the economy” than the Democrats (44%-37%). Independents favored the GOP on the economy by a whopping 46%-30% margin in that survey.

The Republicans took most of the blame for the shutdown, yet a growing number see the GOP as “better able to manage the government.” In December 2012, the Democratic Party held a 45%-36% advantage over the GOP as the party Americans viewed as better able to manage the government. By Oct. 15—in the midst of the shutdown and debt crisis—the Democratic lead on this measure disappeared: 42% said the Republican Party is better able to manage the federal government, compared with 39% who named the Democrats.

An early read of voter preferences for the House in 2014 by the Pew Research Center in mid-October had the Democrats with a six-point edge: 49% to 43% among registered voters. In historical terms, this is a relatively modest margin. Six points is the same lead the Democrats had in 2009, a lead that steadily eroded in 2010. The GOP picked up six Senate seats and 63 House seats in that year’s midterm.

The anger over the government shut-down is fading.  But at the moment, ObamaCare is the gift that keeps on giving.  And, of course, there’s the struggling economy.  Neither the economy nor ObamaCare promise to fade into obscurity before the mid-term elections next year.  One indicator of how deep the looming trouble is for Democrats can be found in the numbers associated with independent voters:

One clear troubling sign for the Democrats at this early stage is independent voters, who decide most elections. They are evenly divided, according to Pew’s mid-October survey: 43% say that “if the elections for Congress were being held today,” they would vote for the Republican candidate in their district, 43% say they would vote for the Democratic candidate.

The reason there’s hope for good results in 2014 for Republicans rests with the two issues nagging Democrats.  Healthcare and the economy.  Both are very personal issues, i.e. they are issues that effect all voters.  They’re not some issue which voters simply have an opinion about.  Both effect their lives, sometimes in dramatic fashion.  And those are the very issues Republicans, if they’re smart, will focus on:

The economy and ObamaCare’s inauspicious debut are likely the most powerful drags on the president and in turn on his party. In a September Pew survey, 63% of Americans say the nation’s economic system is no more secure today than it was before the 2008 market crash.

A majority of Americans say their household incomes and jobs still have not recovered from the great recession. But pluralities think that government’s policies have helped large banks, corporations and the rich more than the middle-class, the poor or small businesses.

So maybe it isn’t as bleak for Republicans as some pundits would like to believe.  That said, we’ve all watched the GOP manage to screw up all sorts of issues in the past.  2014 is going to take a focused effort to lay out those 2 issues for the pubic in clear fashion and with clear and appealing alternatives.

I’ll be interested to see if they can do that.

~McQ


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If De Blausio the communist switches to being a republican, we should support him because winning is all that matters!

xblade on November 8, 2013 at 4:35 PM

I will vote for Rahm if he runs against Christie in the Republican primary.

happytobehere on November 8, 2013 at 4:36 PM

When Welfare reform was enacted lots of those people were elated to get a job…cause they found their self respect.

workingclass artist on November 8, 2013 at 4:28 PM

Not as elated as they felt watching Oprah cry tears of joy in Grant Park on that beautiful night in 2008!

happytobehere on November 8, 2013 at 4:32 PM

They look up to Oprah because she’s successful. They will work hard to get where she is, but we need to have a growing dynamic economy for that to happen.

kcewa on November 8, 2013 at 4:37 PM

Not as elated as they felt watching Oprah cry tears of joy in Grant Park on that beautiful night in 2008!

happytobehere on November 8, 2013 at 4:32 PM

OK…Most believe Lincoln was a democrat.

They also think Bill Clinton did welfare reform all by himself.

Conservatives need to educate.

workingclass artist on November 8, 2013 at 4:38 PM

It didn’t hurt Christie. We’re sadly mistaken if you think Obamacare is a sure loser for the Dems. It’s a loser right now because the electorate isn’t getting their promised bounty: stolen from the Rich Evil Republicans through healthcare.gov. Once this thing is up and running the electorate will never want Obamacare to go away.

happytobehere on November 8, 2013 at 3:58 PM

You’re assumption is that we’ve got the monopoly on money. Thanks to their take over of higher education I’d say that the Democrats have the monopoly on the well to do and the poor. The GOP has the middle to lower middle class, and much of the white southern poor. The Dems will be going after the money of their voters. They can’t avoid it, and that’s when it’s going to get bad. Remember it hasn’t even started yet. Obamacare hasn’t even went into effect. It’s going to get much nastier.

DFCtomm on November 8, 2013 at 4:39 PM

They vote democrat because the GOP largely abandoned the big urban centers a long time ago.

All the ghetto revitalization schemes are owned politically by democrats.

workingclass artist on November 8, 2013 at 4:35 PM

They vote democrat because the GOP won’t hand them free shit.

BobMbx on November 8, 2013 at 4:39 PM

They look up to Oprah because she’s successful. They will work hard to get where she is, but we need to have a growing dynamic economy for that to happen.

kcewa on November 8, 2013 at 4:37 PM

Yep!

We also need to quit this class warfare crapola…It’s identity politics and while liberals excel at it conservatives suck at it.

workingclass artist on November 8, 2013 at 4:39 PM

They vote democrat because the GOP won’t hand them free shit.

BobMbx on November 8, 2013 at 4:39 PM

The biscuit wheels are starting to come off the gravy train. When that happens it’s going to be fun.

DFCtomm on November 8, 2013 at 4:41 PM

They look up to Oprah because she’s successful. They will work hard to get where she is, but we need to have a growing dynamic economy for that to happen.

kcewa on November 8, 2013 at 4:37 PM

I admire your optimism and tenacity. I’m sorry that I don’t share it. I think the electorate is beyond hope and we’d do much better going towards the kind of “democracy” the Founders envisioned. One where about 1% of the population voted in presidential elections.

happytobehere on November 8, 2013 at 4:41 PM

If Republicans want to win a majority the Senate and maintain or increase their majority in the House, then Republicans need to have candidates ready to run in all of the races NOW.

This is particulary true for the 50+ Congressional races in California which has a “top two” Primary election in June.

If a Republican candidate doesn’t come in first or second in the June Primary then some districts may not have any Republican options on the ballot in November. And it takes time to ramp up a campaign that will win a 1st or 2nd place finish in the Primary.

In particular, I want to know who the Republican Party has recruited to run against Nancy Pelosi in San Francisco.

I don’t expect a Republican to defeat Nancy Pelosi. But I do expect the Republican candidate running against Nancy Pelosi to remind the rest of the country why they don’t want to risk having Nancy Pelosi become Speaker of the House again.

wren on November 8, 2013 at 4:42 PM

They vote democrat because the republican establishment is only concerned with funneling money to Wall Street and crony capitalits (Hi Mitt!). We need to give them hope by putting a pro-growth agenda forward.

kcewa on November 8, 2013 at 4:31 PM

Umm. That’s not why they vote Democrat, dude.

happytobehere on November 8, 2013 at 4:35 PM

It’s why they don’t even consider voting Republican, though. The Republican establishment pols offer them nothing.

kcewa on November 8, 2013 at 4:42 PM

They vote democrat because the GOP won’t hand them free shit.

BobMbx on November 8, 2013 at 4:39 PM

Well maybe instead of letting the liberals focus on what free shit the GOP won’t give them…Conservatives can focus on building a desire for building the life you want not the life the government decides is good for you.

workingclass artist on November 8, 2013 at 4:42 PM

I admire your optimism and tenacity. I’m sorry that I don’t share it. I think the electorate is beyond hope and we’d do much better going towards the kind of “democracy” the Founders envisioned. One where about 1% of the population voted in presidential elections.

happytobehere on November 8, 2013 at 4:41 PM

I don’t disagree with that, lol. But I think that boat has sailed.

kcewa on November 8, 2013 at 4:44 PM

People saying the GOP caused the shutdown doesn’t mean they think that it is a bad thing the GOP did. The better question for poll takers is to ask if the party responsible for shutdown damaged anything. Hell, if DC hadn’t fought about it nobody would have noticed there was a shutdown.

Herb on November 8, 2013 at 4:44 PM

It’s why they don’t even consider voting Republican, though. The Republican establishment pols offer them nothing.

kcewa on November 8, 2013 at 4:42 PM

It can be done…But it’ll take hard work.

workingclass artist on November 8, 2013 at 4:45 PM

Funny how us conservatives get crap for not being “team players,” but it is always people who are in the moderate camp who start this $hit.

melle1228

Know what’s also funny? Cuccinelli, the horrible conservative candidate in VA that nobody liked, won the independent vote, lol.

xblade on November 8, 2013 at 4:45 PM

It sure sounds like a huge issue, dude. You’re not a Democrat and you already know that it is potentially offensive. Perhaps to YOU it’s not verboten, but if there’s even some question… well, there’s no way I’m saying it anymore.

happytobehere on November 8, 2013 at 4:30 PM

LOL.
Ok, that’s not what I’m saying.
Libtards have pushed the fake outrage that using the name Eskimo is bad, because people who don’t know the difference have tended to use it as a generic term for all natives in northern North America. The name Eskimo is just fine with the actual Eskimos. The others, who are not Eskimo, just don’t like it when people use Eskimo as a generic term for ALL Alaskan natives.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaska_Natives

BTW – my Dad’s first wife was actual full-blooded Eskimo from Point Barrow – hence my 4 older half-siblings. My Mom was #2 – and not Eskimo – but she’s the one who actually raised my Dad’s first 4, so I grew up with them.

dentarthurdent on November 8, 2013 at 4:46 PM

Know what’s also funny? Cuccinelli, the horrible conservative candidate in VA that nobody liked, won the independent vote, lol.

xblade on November 8, 2013 at 4:45 PM

Yeah he did

workingclass artist on November 8, 2013 at 4:48 PM

I live in a neighborhood where the majority of people are on some form of assistance and most of them would love to have some hope for a better life. Especially for their kids; single mothers don’t want their kids turning out like the men that screwed them over.

kcewa on November 8, 2013 at 4:49 PM

I will vote for Rahm if he runs against Christie in the Republican primary.

happytobehere

I hear ya, lol. I don’t know what I’ll end up doing, but I know I won’t be voting for Christie or any other “only a RINO can win” candidate.

xblade on November 8, 2013 at 4:49 PM

However – the Inuits and other ethnic Indian tribes of Alaska and Canada do not like being called Eskimos.

dentarthurdent on November 8, 2013 at 4:12 PM

So? I had a mennonite refer to me as “English” the other day and apologized. It struck me as funny since there isn’t that much English. I wasn’t offended by it, but the offense taken by your Indians strikes me as insecurity.

DFCtomm on November 8, 2013 at 4:51 PM

They look up to Oprah because she’s successful. They will work hard to get where she is, but we need to have a growing dynamic economy for that to happen.
kcewa on November 8, 2013 at 4:37 PM

Ohhhh darn – ya lost me there.
I know a lot of these people, many in my family.
Many of them DON’T want to work hard, especially if they can get by on freebie handouts without working at all.
Many of them WILL go out and work, IF they have to in order to get by – if the handouts were to stop – but they sure as he11 don’t want to.

dentarthurdent on November 8, 2013 at 4:52 PM

So maybe it isn’t as bleak for Republicans as some pundits would like to believe. That said, we’ve all watched the GOP manage to screw up all sorts of issues in the past. 2014 is going to take a focused effort to lay out those 2 issues for the pubic in clear fashion and with clear and appealing alternatives.

Which means the Tea Party wing and the establishment wing will need to work together! Or yes, we will screw up yet another election cycle.

ncconservative on November 8, 2013 at 4:55 PM

Know what’s also funny? Cuccinelli, the horrible conservative candidate in VA that nobody liked, won the independent vote, lol.

xblade on November 8, 2013 at 4:45 PM

He also won married women by a significant margin. Like someone said, it is not a gender problem– it is a single woman problem.

melle1228 on November 8, 2013 at 4:56 PM

I live in a neighborhood where the majority of people are on some form of assistance and most of them would love to have some hope for a better life. Especially for their kids; single mothers don’t want their kids turning out like the men that screwed them over.

kcewa on November 8, 2013 at 4:49 PM

So they aren’t responsible? You think they didn’t know that having a kid was the gateway into the welfare system. You think they weren’t aware they would get housing, paid utilities, a cell phone, and some walking around money just for having a kid. Watch this video or maybe this interview. They aren’t the ones being screwed over.

DFCtomm on November 8, 2013 at 4:56 PM

I’d love to see a reverse candidate who talks like a liberal and then after getting elected cuts the size and scope of government. We get a lot of the reverse anyway. One can dream…

happytobehere on November 8, 2013 at 4:57 PM

So? I had a mennonite refer to me as “English” the other day and apologized. It struck me as funny since there isn’t that much English. I wasn’t offended by it, but the offense taken by your Indians strikes me as insecurity.

DFCtomm on November 8, 2013 at 4:51 PM

That’s actually pretty much the point I’m trying to make.
It’s really not that big a deal to most of them, but some people are more easily offended than others – everywhere.
The Dems/libtards have made it a bigger issue than it is to the people actually involved. Most would just politely correct you – “I’m not Eskimo, I’m Inuit” and leave it at that. Not a big deal.
That’s where I started with the original comment that yes it’s ok to say “like selling ice cubes to an Eskimo”.

But what would I know since I’m just an average white guy – although I prefer European-American… ;)

dentarthurdent on November 8, 2013 at 4:58 PM

Most would just politely correct you – “I’m not Eskimo, I’m Inuit” and leave it at that.

dentarthurdent on November 8, 2013 at 4:58 PM

I didn’t correct her. I just bought my friendship bread and left. why would I be offended by being called English, other than it’s not completely accurate. They, as a people, have accomplished much. They’ve sacked and burned Washington twice. Wonder if we can convince them to go for a third.

DFCtomm on November 8, 2013 at 5:03 PM

But what would I know since I’m just an average white guy – although I prefer European-American… ;)

dentarthurdent on November 8, 2013 at 4:58 PM

Now you tell us. You, sir, are racist. There’s nothing you can do about it. Well, you can vote Democrat… that’s the only thing that may help toward your salvation.

/

happytobehere on November 8, 2013 at 5:03 PM

the theme for all elections should be that republicans are here to “manage” the government. that’s it. not waste time enacting ideological agendas, just managing the government. focus on the economy, cutting wasteful spending and becoming an efficient government that doesn’t overreach into people’s lives (see nsa, and irs) Nothing else!

that just seems like such a winner to me, I don’t get why they don’t try it…

jetch on November 8, 2013 at 5:06 PM

Until the majority of Americans believe in the following five points we will not be better. off. The Democrats have built an entitlement system in which we are now outnumbered. Republicans have to start doing what is best for the country and not what is best for the Party.

1. You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity.

2. What one person receives without working for, another person must work for without receiving.

3. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else.

4. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it!

5. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them, and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for, that is the beginning of the end of any nation.

alanstern on November 8, 2013 at 5:08 PM

Running just against something like Obamacare is not enough.

Running for smaller government can start out with Reagan’s words on the most terrifying sentence in the English language: “I’m from the government and I’m here to help.”

Smaller government means smaller IRS, smaller military, and, indeed, massive haircuts to the entire enterprise of government.

Why do we subsidize large corporations through government? Not just in subsidies but in giveaways, loans, and a host of other vehicles that transfer the wealth of citizens to corporations. Hard earned money must be spent wisely, not on crony projects. List the top three crony projects of the last decade off the top of your head… any three… take Obamacare, the Bailout and the Stimulus. Are we better off after 8 years of this crap than we were when we started? Yes this means going after the fiscal policies of the Bush Administration as well. Being against Obama, being against Democrats… that isn’t enough. Each of these projects has shifted large amounts of private wealth into crony corporate hands: banks, insurance companies, failed energy projects.

Any three crony projects will do… just start with them and point to how each of the federal agencies involved grew because of those projects, adding burden to our government and sapping yet more hard earned money into the edifice building of government. If you are asked if you wanted the big banks to fail, the answer is YES. Let them go through bankruptcy to reorganize, to lose unprofitable parts of themselves, to become more transparent by spinning off units that are only marginally productive. That STILL hasn’t happened and the government is now protecting these decaying monsters. Both Democrats and Republicans are involved in that protection scheme and must be shown that there is accountability to becoming the paid spokesperson in Congress for such institutions that deserve to be restructured to benefit those who invested in them. Not to become the willing agents of government but to serve their stock and bond holders and their customers.

Ditto the insurance companies. Big Agriculture has its problems and why do we support Monsanto? Indeed for all the money the Energy Dept. has put out we now have toxic waste sites to show for it… not more or cleaner or cheaper energy and point out you can only get two out of three.

As President Obama has not done as he said to end the wars by getting Peace Treaties so we can remove the CAUFs, it must be pointed out that wars against Nations have an end and that everything else that isn’t done by Nations to attack us is Piracy and needs to be treated as such. We do have Nation State worries and opponents, and to address those the current conflicts need proper endings which the Obama Administration seems unable and unwilling to do. Point out that this must be done so we can refit ships, fix up broken equipment, filter new equipment in to replace outdated equipment, and that the entire morale of the US military needs to be addressed post-conflict. A smaller yet more targeted and adaptable military is necessary for the future so that each warfighter will have more in the way of capability with them than any other soldier on the planet. How about running on Peace and Prosperity, and then asking that Congress do its job to go after those who fight Privately against our Nation and that require different tools and methods than our Nation State adversaries?

Removing regulations, perhaps asking Congress to go have a real look at the workings of the Federal Reserve and the possibility of breaking that system up or down into smaller and adversarial units, taking taxation off of space exploration and those seeking to open new frontiers, and removing the heinous programs that intrude on our personal lives from medical care to what we email to each other: get the government out of the bedroom and our wallets.

Blindside the Democrats in ways they will not even begin to understand by saying that getting accountability means that people will lose jobs and be prosecuted and that no one, even the President, is above the law.

All of this means that each individual will be in the scary position of not having government to complain to and to lead their own lives… that the money redistribution is going to trickle off and stop so that we will no longer saddle our grandchildren with OUR OWN DEBT THAT WE ASKED FOR. It is unethical and immoral to do this to future generations and if you want these lovely social programs then find a way NOT to spend the future’s wealth on our well being and figure out how we can pay for it ourselves. If we are not wise enough, smart enough, competent enough to balance our own budgets then we have no business, at all, stealing from our children and grandchildren.

Yeah, its hard to find a candidate or set of candidate who dares to say these things.

Cowardice will kill this Nation if they cannot be found.

Will you get clinkers running for office and losing? You betchya!

If you worry about that, look at what the professional politicians are doing to us NOW and ask yourself just when, oh when, you will support their downfall so that we can hand over a Nation that might just survive to our children. Because re-electing the same idiots we have today guarantees the end of our Nation, the end of liberty and the end of America as following the guiding star of freedom for all mankind. Without us pointing to these things a dark age will come along with Iron Times. And do remember that as Rome fell the Barbarians were welcomed in as a SOLUTION to their problems which are so similar to ours. Our Barbarians are already welcomed in within the halls of power in DC, and they are robbing us blind with our assent and, increasingly, without it.

That is what you will continue to get if you think that ‘winning’ for a party is so damned important: you will destroy who we are as a Nation and abolish the guiding star of liberty and freedom because you were worried about party over liberty and freedom. Better poor and free to make a better world than comfortable and enslaved knowing that our children will be born with the chains we forged around their necks… trying to be nice now guarantees that.

Pain now or enduring agony forever.

Choose quickly, because that second option is the default by doing nothing.

ajacksonian on November 8, 2013 at 5:10 PM

I didn’t correct her. I just bought my friendship bread and left. why would I be offended by being called English, other than it’s not completely accurate. They, as a people, have accomplished much. They’ve sacked and burned Washington twice. Wonder if we can convince them to go for a third.

DFCtomm on November 8, 2013 at 5:03 PM

Ya, well I consider myself a mutt – some combination of Scottish, English, Welsh, French-Canadian, and a touch of Indian/Native American/Whatever, and who knows what else.
And my wife is a mix of Minnesota Norwegian and Georgia Irish – so our boys are real mutts.
And I don’t get offended about any of it. He11 – I’m descended from the Campbell Clan of Scotland – the traitors that all the others hate – I actually love joking about that.

dentarthurdent on November 8, 2013 at 5:13 PM

alanstern on November 8, 2013 at 5:08 PM

Very good points/quotes.
Those need to be repeated more often.

dentarthurdent on November 8, 2013 at 5:21 PM

Now you tell us. You, sir, are racist. There’s nothing you can do about it. Well, you can vote Democrat… that’s the only thing that may help toward your salvation.

/

happytobehere on November 8, 2013 at 5:03 PM

Well, ya got me – since I’m white and I vote R, I gots ta be racist.

But I’m just an ordinary average guy, with average kids and average wives (ooops, I mean wife), on Saturdays I work in the yard, pick up the dog doo and hope that its hard – but I drive a Chevy, not a Dodge….

dentarthurdent on November 8, 2013 at 5:27 PM

These numbers show how liberal the voting base has become. People default to a pro-Democrat, pro-government outlook and apparently it will require extensive damage to their personal lives under Democrat leadership to even move the needle, if it’s possible at all anymore.

The idea of freedom and self reliance will have to be popular themes that enjoy broad public support before anything will change, meaning that culture influences politics and whomever best expresses the culture, not the policies, will reap electoral rewards.

This is how things work when the public is not sufficiently educated enough to draw logical conclusions on their own.

hisfrogness on November 8, 2013 at 5:31 PM

But I’m just an ordinary average guy, with average kids and average wives (ooops, I mean wife), on Saturdays I work in the yard, pick up the dog doo and hope that its hard – but I drive a Chevy, not a Dodge….
dentarthurdent on November 8, 2013 at 5:27 PM

Are you going to the Klan meeting tonight at Bob’s? Hope to see you there! Bring cupcakes.

happytobehere on November 8, 2013 at 5:33 PM

2/3 of the federal gubenmint has been controlled by Dems for a long time.

CWchangedhisNicagain on November 8, 2013 at 5:45 PM

verage wives (ooops, I mean wife), on Saturdays I work in the yard, pick up the dog doo and hope that its hard – but I drive a Chevy, not a Dodge….
dentarthurdent on November 8, 2013 at 5:27 PM

I thought you were going to say oops after calling your wife average.
You’re screwed./

CWchangedhisNicagain on November 8, 2013 at 5:46 PM

ajacksonian on November 8, 2013 at 5:10 PM

Wish I had said that.

Cleombrotus on November 8, 2013 at 5:52 PM

wren on November 8, 2013 at 4:42 PM

I don’t think you understand how primaries work. They are per Party. So there are only Republicans in the Republican primary. Unless you’re saying that there are Democrats running as Republicans, then sure. But otherwise, the Republican primary is always won by a Republican.

MrX on November 8, 2013 at 5:58 PM

Pain now or enduring agony forever.

Choose quickly, because that second option is the default by doing nothing.

ajacksonian on November 8, 2013 at 5:10 PM

Brilliant, and very well said.

Midas on November 8, 2013 at 6:05 PM

I don’t think you understand how primaries work. They are per Party. So there are only Republicans in the Republican primary. Unless you’re saying that there are Democrats running as Republicans, then sure. But otherwise, the Republican primary is always won by a Republican.

MrX on November 8, 2013 at 5:58 PM

Unfortunately, having worked on multiple campaigns, I understand very well how Primary elections work.

California switched to a Top Two Primary system in 2011, which means only the top two candidates in the Primary move on to the general election, regardless of party affiliation.

Which is why it is so important for the Republican Party to recruit their candidates for the June Primary NOW.

You can read more about California’s Top Two Primary system on the California Secretary of State web site:

The Top Two Candidates Open Primary Act, which took effect January 1, 2011, created “voter-nominated” offices. The Top Two Candidates Open Primary Act does not apply to candidates running for U.S. President, county central committees, or local offices.

Most of the offices that were previously known as “partisan” are now known as “voter-nominated” offices. Voter-nominated offices are state constitutional offices, state legislative offices, and U.S. congressional offices. The only “partisan offices” now are the offices of U.S. President and county central committee.

All candidates for voter-nominated offices are listed on one ballot and only the top two vote-getters in the primary election – regardless of party preference – move on to the general election. A write-in candidate will only move on to the general election if the candidate is one of the top two vote-getters in the primary election.

http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/statewide-elections/2012-primary/faqs-primary-2012.htm

In California, it is very possible (and in many places highly likely) for both candidates for Congress in a District to be Democrats. Strange, but true!

wren on November 8, 2013 at 6:18 PM

A thug is chief

Schadenfreude on November 8, 2013 at 6:31 PM

I thought you were going to say oops after calling your wife average.
You’re screwed./

CWchangedhisNicagain on November 8, 2013 at 5:46 PM

Nahhh – She’s a jealous possessive redhead who would be more concerned about there being someone else than the average comment.

(PS – not sure if you picked up on it, but lyrics from – Joe Walsh, Ordinary Average Guy)

dentarthurdent on November 8, 2013 at 7:00 PM

Are you going to the Klan meeting tonight at Bob’s? Hope to see you there! Bring cupcakes.

happytobehere on November 8, 2013 at 5:33 PM

Jus so long as them thar soggy bottom boys don’t intrupt our sacred ritchal. I heah theys all integrated an Shiite….

dentarthurdent on November 8, 2013 at 7:03 PM

Are Republicans better off electorally than they think?

Doubtful,

That said, we’ve all watched the GOP manage to screw up all sorts of issues in the past.

for this reason.

rukiddingme on November 8, 2013 at 7:04 PM

Are Republicans better off electorally than they think?

Democrats are blessed having the Republicans, the stupid party, as their political opponents. The Republicans are busily at war with their voters.

With all the lies, failures and incompetence of the Obama administration the Republicans should have good election nights in 2014 and 2016, but they’ll have to do it without me.

RJL on November 8, 2013 at 7:06 PM

#gopstillsucking

PappyD61 on November 8, 2013 at 7:11 PM

So, maybe the GOP is in okay shape electorally. Is that the end game? GOP victories are supposed to be a means, not an end. A means to removing government as an obstacle to be overcome in our daily lives. How many Republicans need to be in there before that happens? Will 435 in the House and 100 in the Senate be enough? I doubt it.

besser tot als rot on November 8, 2013 at 7:31 PM

Having watched Republicans, for many years, they have everything going for them and they constantly blow it with their terrible messaging. Right now, they’re talking about their solutions to Obamacare and they’re saying phrases like “free market solutions” who knows what that means? The Democrats seldom offer anything that resembles a solution, they always talk about saving the middle class, etc.

The Republicans need to go to school, when it comes to messaging. They also need to get just a little cut-throat like the Democrats. Example: “The President said you can keep your plan. You know that’s not true. Can he be trusted to come up with a solution.” The Democrats wouldn’t think twice about doing something like that but, in this case it’s really true.

I believe the Republicans have the advantage, but they should message this, not like they have the advantage but like they wish they didn’t have the advantage because they understand how all of these failed policies have hurt the American People. That’s the winning message, nothing more, nothing less.
Now, that’s my idea and it may not be right, but whatever they’ve been doing for the past 2 years isn’t right either, so they’d better change their tune and find a way to get together with the tea party.

bflat879 on November 8, 2013 at 7:32 PM

Democrats are blessed having the Republicans, the stupid party, as their political opponents. The Republicans are busily at war with their voters.

RJL on November 8, 2013 at 7:06 PM

And what’s truly amazing about it is that the Democrat leaders are Reid and Pelosi. Quite possibly two of the stupidest people in the country. Yet, they run circles around the Republicans. Like I said – truly amazing.

besser tot als rot on November 8, 2013 at 7:37 PM

And what’s truly amazing about it is that the Democrat leaders are Reid and Pelosi. Quite possibly two of the stupidest people in the country. Yet, they run circles around the Republicans. Like I said – truly amazing.

besser tot als rot on November 8, 2013 at 7:37 PM

Which is why I am so frustrated that there are no signs that the Republican Party has recruited a candidate to run against Nancy Pelosi yet! The Primary election is in June – only 7 months away!

If you have any connections with Republican “leadership,” please ask them who they have recruited to run against Nancy Pelosi.

wren on November 8, 2013 at 7:50 PM

It’s never as good or as bad as you think, the saying goes.

But it is manifestly unwise to pay much attention to polls. The art isn’t that far advanced. It’s one thing to ask a finite and specific question like “Who will you vote for on Tuesday?” or “Are you planning on buying a new car in the next year?” but issues polling is very nebulous. Much depends on the wording and the sample, these and other variables throw off these “attitude” polls far more than they do specific inquiries.

Republicans don’t need polling. We know we have to find ways to cut government spending ASAP. That’s it. The public either accepts it and goes along with us or rejects it and keeps Democrats in power until things get even worse.

Adjoran on November 8, 2013 at 8:44 PM

So the plan is to go full on delusional now?

HB3 on November 8, 2013 at 9:54 PM

Ya, well I consider myself a mutt – some combination of Scottish, English, Welsh, French-Canadian, and a touch of Indian/Native American/Whatever, and who knows what else.
And my wife is a mix of Minnesota Norwegian and Georgia Irish – so our boys are real mutts.
And I don’t get offended about any of it. He11 – I’m descended from the Campbell Clan of Scotland – the traitors that all the others hate – I actually love joking about that.

dentarthurdent on November 8, 2013 at 5:13 PM

You’re a Campbell?

Aaaargh!

Descendant of Clan Lamond here…Prepare to ummm…Pay for the Beer!

workingclass artist on November 8, 2013 at 10:23 PM

The midterm election happens in November 2014. That’s a year from now.

A year is forever in election time. The shutdown will be ancient history by then; but the repercussions from Obamacare will still be affecting the voters.

The Democrats want to convince the electorate that the Blue Model of rule by “experts” will bring great things for them. Against them, the Republicans need to let the electorate know that there are no “experts” in Washington DC; there are only Politicians and self-serving bureaucrats.

With the “experts” of Obamacare still affecting them it should not be a hard sell.

But the Republicans didn’t get known as “The Stupid Party” for nothing.

Here’s hoping they can stop bickering among themselves long enough to do this.

schmuck281 on November 9, 2013 at 12:10 AM

A mid-October Pew Research national poll found that a plurality regard the Republicans as “better able to deal with the economy” than the Democrats (44%-37%). Independents favored the GOP on the economy by a whopping 46%-30% margin in that survey.

Let’s look at…

=========

1) DEBT:

FY 1996-2007: Rep majorities increased debt from $5 Trillion to $9T… an increase of $4T in 12 years, an average of $336 Billion/year.

FY 2008-13: Dem majorities increased debt from $9 Trillion to over $17T… an increase of over $8T in 6 years, an average of $1,345 Billion/year.

Present Democrat majorities have been deficit spending at more than quadruple the rate of their Republican predecessors.

=========

2) Debt as a % of GDP:

FY-end 1995: outgoing Democrat majority leaves incoming Republican majority Gross Federal Debt = 67.0% of GDP.

FY-end 2007: outgoing Republican majority leaves incoming Democrat majority Gross Federal Debt = 64.6% of GDP.

FY-end 2013: Democrats have Gross Federal Debt > 105% of GDP and climbing.

=========

3) Employment:

FY 1996-2007: Average Employment-Population ratio over 12 years of Rep majorities: 63.3%

FY 2008-present: Average Employment-Population ratio over 6+ years Dem majorities: 59.8%

Current Employment-Population ratio: 58.3%

=========

Under Republican majority control for 12 years, deficits were smaller and employment was better.

Under Democrat majority control for 6+ years, new debt has more than quadrupled, and employment is much worse.

If we had the same level of employment now that we had when Republicans last controlled the House, Senate, and Presidency (December 2006), more than 12.5 million more people would be employed right now.

ITguy on November 9, 2013 at 12:14 AM

That said, we’ve all watched the GOP manage to screw up all sorts of issues in the past. 2014 is going to take a focused effort to lay out those 2 issues for the pubic in clear fashion and with clear and appealing alternatives.

I’ll be interested to see if they can do that.

The GOP Elitists are only focused on attacking the TEA Party Conservatives in 2014. They don’t care if it costs them House seats anymore than they cared about winning in Virginia.

If you want to see the Senate taken back in 2014 support your local TEA Party, not the liberals running the Republican Party from DC today.

DannoJyd on November 9, 2013 at 1:42 AM

First of all, you can’t compare off year elections with presidential elections. You can’t compare 2012 with 2010 (but you can, and should, compare 2014 with 2010). Having candidates at the top of the ticked pulls out a lot more voters of both parties than an off year election.

The Republicans found themselves in much better shape after the 2012 elections than they were after the 2008 elections. Arkansas in complete Republican control for the first time in 136 years. Republicans kept Wisconsin. They are closer to flipping West Virginia. Nearly all the House seats lost were due to re-districting in California and Illinois. Had two Senate candidates not got a case of foot-in-mouth disease (Aiken / Mourdock) the Republicans would have held their own in the Senate. All told a pretty amazing accomplishment for an election where the Democrats took the top of the ticket. Obama had NO coattails in 2012, unlike 2008.

Psychologically, many rank and file Republicans were extremely upset at the loss and because they were so strongly against Obama and as Republicans always do, they started blaming various factions of their own party and the fact that really they hadn’t done all that badly didn’t even register. The fact that they were stuck with another four years of Obama was such a major disappointment and frustration that it made the loss seem even worse than it really was.

The Republicans have been doing quite well SINCE the 2012 elections, the loss in Virginia notwithstanding. The Republicans have been picking up state seats in special elections. California and Washington state most notably. Virginia is a hollow victory for the Democrats because the Republicans control 2/3 of the House of Delegates and the state Senate is split 50/50. McAuliffe isn’t going to get anything done, Obamacare is making Democrats even less popular, and this could actually destroy McAuliffe’s career.

In New Jersey, Christie won, the Republican won for Mayor in Atlantic City which might give Republicans a potential turn around story for a depressed city in financial trouble. Republicans picked up two seats in the General Assembly.

We are poised going into the 2014 elections in much better shape than going into 2010 elections except for one thing — Republicans dividing into two factions each one cutting off their noses to spite their faces which might just allow Democrats to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat simply because of GOP knuckleheadedness.

Since the 2012 election we have one faction who has been saying “I am never going to donate to GOP orgs or ‘establishment’ candidates” and they also say “they lose because they run RINOs, if a conservative ran, they would win.” but apparently these are people in deep red states who don’t understand purple states. So tea party candidate runs, and loses. Of course it CAN’T POSSIBLY be because of the candidate, it MUST be somehow the fault of the “establishment” and the people who for the last year have been dissing the GOP and saying they were boycotting donations to them get all whiney because the GOP didn’t donate enough to them. He was the wrong candidate for that state.

Republicans have only 39% of the electorate in VA. To win you need to win crossover Democrats. Northern Virginia, where most of the Democrats are, hated the federal government shutdown, they are exempt from Obamacare, and there are a lot of young single professional women there. Cuccinelli probably got some moderate Democrat crossover votes from males who don’t work for the federal government. Both of those guys probably voted for Cuccinelli. The other 50,000 of them voted for McAuliffe.

crosspatch on November 9, 2013 at 3:16 AM

ajacksonian on November 8, 2013 at 5:10 PM

excellent …. please run for office or inspire someone with this view point to voice it and run

conservative tarheel on November 9, 2013 at 3:43 AM

If the RINO dinosaurs had stood with Cruz and Lee, instead of stabbing them in the back, they could have pointed to that support next year all the while telling the country they stood 4 square against Obamacare coming into being. Instead, McConnell and his spineless lot once more may have pulled defeat from the jaws of victory.

They threw away something that would have helped them a lot. RINOs are just that way. You can’t win if you don’t fight.

Quartermaster on November 9, 2013 at 9:55 AM

R moron

Schadenfreude on November 9, 2013 at 3:41 PM

Descendant of Clan Lamond here…Prepare to ummm…Pay for the Beer!

workingclass artist on November 8, 2013 at 10:23 PM

Yes, I have to say I am – at least in part – and I have to caveat that more of my (known) family tree is English and Welsh, and French-Canadian. But the one line of the family tree we’ve been able to trace the longest went to the Campbells (through maternal connections – so my real name is not Campbell). Descended from one of a couple of brothers who came over here in the late 1700s, and I’ve been told, founded Bucksport, Maine.
Happy to buy a beer for those from other clans. It’s the least I can do to make up for my ancestors.

dentarthurdent on November 9, 2013 at 8:20 PM

They vote democrat because the GOP won’t hand them free shit.

BobMbx on November 8, 2013 at 4:39 PM

Blacks were traditionally conservative and voting Republican. That is, until all the free shit was offered in late ’60s, early ’70′s. Sadly, they have pretty short or no memories of how liberals fought against abolishing and then voting rights. Education system in USA took care of that.

riddick on November 10, 2013 at 9:47 PM

BUT, the Republicans are working hard, to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

kjatexas on November 11, 2013 at 11:33 AM

But I’m just an ordinary average guy, with average kids and average wives (ooops, I mean wife), on Saturdays I work in the yard, pick up the dog doo and hope that its hard – but I drive a Chevy, not a Dodge….
dentarthurdent on November 8, 2013 at 5:27 PM

So… has life been good to you so far? :D

TMOverbeck on November 12, 2013 at 9:50 AM

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