ADP: Private sector job growth sags to 130K

posted at 3:21 pm on October 30, 2013 by Ed Morrissey

The monthly ADP report on private-sector job growth for October is a big miss, and not just from a standpoint of real economic development.  The 130,000 jobs added is the worst in six months, and below the ADP average for the past twelve months.  And in even more bad news ahead of November 8th’s Bureau of Labor Statistics report, ADP revised its September estimate downward, too:

Private sector employment increased by 130,000 jobs from September to October, according to the October ADP National Employment Report®. Broadly distributed to the public each month, free of charge, the ADP National Employment Report is produced by ADP®, a leading global provider of Human Capital Management (HCM) solutions, in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis. September’s job gain was revised down from 166,000 to 145,000. …

“According to ADP National Employment Report findings, the U.S. private sector added a total
of 130,000 jobs during the month of October, well below the average of the last twelve months,” said Carlos Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP. “Small business growth was down from the previous month, while payrolls among large enterprises showed an
increase.”

Want to guess what ADP and Moody’s blame for the decline?

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “The government shutdown and debt limit brinksmanship hurt the already softening job market in October. Average monthly growth has fallen below 150,000. Any further weakening would signal rising unemployment. The weaker job growth is evident across most industries and company sizes.”

Well, maybe. The shutdown certainly didn’t help, and it did have an impact — a temporary impact — on contractors doing business with the federal government.  The shutdown doesn’t explain this trend, though:

adp-oct-2013

This decline started months ago, and it’s not a decline from a starting point of strength, either. In the past 12 months, we’ve had only one month of even decently strong hiring, with another just barely over the 200K mark.  This economy needs 150,000 jobs added every month just to keep pace with population growth. Five of the last twelve months didn’t even cross that treading-water threshold in a series that routinely overstates actual BLS job-growth numbers, and four of those misses are in the previous seven months.

CNBC expected 150K out of ADP today:

Job growth faltered in October, with the private sector adding just 130,000 new positions, according to the latest report from ADP and Moody’s Analytics.

Economists expected ADP to show private business created 150,000 new jobs in October. The actual count represented a downward drift from September’s number, which was revised lower from 166,000 to 145,000.

Don’t expect the Fed to change course, either, based on this data.


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Part-time Christmas jobs are on the way, Comrades!

OhEssYouCowboys on October 30, 2013 at 3:23 PM

It was the republican government shutdown!… The MSM aka obama administration…

sandee on October 30, 2013 at 3:25 PM

Oh! And when ComradeCare goes into full effect, there’s gonna be a helluva black market, for pimping used needles.

Pimp jobs are near, Comrades.

Utopia is near, Comrades.

Wait.

Patience.

OhEssYouCowboys on October 30, 2013 at 3:25 PM

Unexpectedly?

Johnnyreb on October 30, 2013 at 3:27 PM

Don’t expect the Fed to change course, either, based on this data.

I expect the Fed to change toner…on the printing presses.

WashJeff on October 30, 2013 at 3:28 PM

The not-so-new normal.

Tsar of Earth on October 30, 2013 at 3:28 PM

404 Administration

Schadenfreude on October 30, 2013 at 3:28 PM

Well Christmas is gonna suck this year. I’m being a good little consumer though and keeping my PS4 preorder open even though to be honest there ain’t much to play on it at launch.

Doughboy on October 30, 2013 at 3:28 PM

Utopia is near, Comrades.

Wait.

Patience.

OhEssYouCowboys on October 30, 2013 at 3:25 PM

Utopia. You keep using that word. I don’t think it means what you think it means.

oldroy on October 30, 2013 at 3:29 PM

Whatever

BoxHead1 on October 30, 2013 at 3:30 PM

Keep voting democrat you part-timers…

PatriotRider on October 30, 2013 at 3:31 PM

QE to infinity….

PatriotRider on October 30, 2013 at 3:32 PM

Uptick in crime is on the way.

docflash on October 30, 2013 at 3:33 PM

Not to worry, that healthcare sector will pick up the slack…

PatriotRider on October 30, 2013 at 3:33 PM

You mean that 2 week paid vacation? Right!!!

Red Creek on October 30, 2013 at 3:33 PM

I predict we’ll see a mild spike in hiring in December, which will be loudly touted in the press.

Akzed on October 30, 2013 at 3:34 PM

Forward…

PatriotRider on October 30, 2013 at 3:35 PM

Wonder how far down that 130K will be revised next month???…

PatriotRider on October 30, 2013 at 3:37 PM

Utopia. You keep using that word. I don’t think it means what you think it means.

oldroy on October 30, 2013 at 3:29 PM

The Communists always speak of Utopia, as being the culmination of Communism. The end of all of the ills of mankind. From each according to his abilities, to each according to his needs. No need for God. Mankind is God. Mankind is the solution. Communism is Utopia.

I thought that was common knowledge.

My apologies.

OhEssYouCowboys on October 30, 2013 at 3:38 PM

Uptick in crime is on the way.

docflash on October 30, 2013 at 3:33 PM

I know a truck driver that has been driving for over 20 years without any incidents that got robbed at gunpoint for 8 bucks a few months ago. The robber admitted after my friend gave him all the money in his wallet that there were no bullets in the gun and he just needed money for food for his family.

Johnnyreb on October 30, 2013 at 3:39 PM

“I will invest $15 billion a year in renewable sources of energy to create 5 million new energy jobs over the next decade—jobs that pay well; jobs that can’t be outsourced; jobs building solar panels and wind turbines and a new electricity grid; jobs building the fuel-efficient cars of tomorrow, not in Japan, not in South Korea but right here in the U.S. of A. Jobs that will help us eliminate the oil we import from the Middle East in 10 years and help save the planet in the bargain. That’s how America can lead again.”

Barack Obama

Where are those jobs?

stefano1 on October 30, 2013 at 3:43 PM

Where’s Fiona.

Did anyone name this guy?

22044 on October 30, 2013 at 3:43 PM

Wait til Obama hears about this, he’s gonna be so angry.

HumpBot Salvation on October 30, 2013 at 3:44 PM

Heaven help us if these liberals succeed in convincing most people in this country that government is integral to the economy, rather than a dependent, and a big drag, on the economy.

rickv404 on October 30, 2013 at 3:46 PM

ADP: Private sector job growth sags to 130K

Thank you, President Obama!

(something I’ve seen posted over the years by several Huffpo “super” users.)

Dr. ZhivBlago on October 30, 2013 at 3:46 PM

Wait til Obama hears about this, he’s gonna be so angry.

HumpBot Salvation on October 30, 2013 at 3:44 PM

LOL.

LoopGate.

OhEssYouCowboys on October 30, 2013 at 3:47 PM

Where’s Fiona.

Did anyone name this guy?

22044 on October 30, 2013 at 3:43 PM

His name is Jules…Julia’s twin brother…

PatriotRider on October 30, 2013 at 3:47 PM

Thank you, President Obama!

something I’ve seen posted over the years by several Huffpo “super” users.)

Dr. ZhivBlago on October 30, 2013 at 3:46 PM

I’m gettin’ some good laughs.

Thanks, guys.

OhEssYouCowboys on October 30, 2013 at 3:48 PM

His name is Jules…Julia’s twin brother…

PatriotRider on October 30, 2013 at 3:47 PM

Oh good, I like that name. :)

22044 on October 30, 2013 at 3:51 PM

Heaven help us if these liberals succeed in convincing most people in this country that government is integral to the economy, rather than a dependent, and a big drag, on the economy.

rickv404 on October 30, 2013 at 3:46 PM

2012 seems to have cemented that. It’s why I favor natl. divorce.

nobar on October 30, 2013 at 3:54 PM

It’s ground hog day! We’re still in 2008, and the only date available for exit is 1929.

DFCtomm on October 30, 2013 at 3:55 PM

If you look at long-term trends….

From January 3, 1995 to January 2, 2007, Republicans controlled 2+ out of 3 of the House, Senate, and Presidency, and the Employment-Population ratio averaged 63.3%, never dropping lower than 62% in the wake of the Dot Com Bust and 9/11/2001 attacks, then recovering in the wake of the Bush Tax Cuts, such that the last full month under a Republican House, Senate, and President, December 2006, ended slightly above average at 63.4%.

Contrast that 12-year long-term trend with the nearly 7 years since…

From January 3, 2007 to present, Democrats controlled 2+ out of 3 of the House, Senate, and Presidency, and the Employment-Population ratio has averaged 59.8%, and has been below that average for the last 4 and a half years. The average of the Obama administration is even lower, at 58.7%, and hasn’t been above even that average since August 2009.

Democrats inherited a good economy from Republicans on January 3, 2007.

Democrats (including then-Senator Obama) drove the economy into the ditch, and have kept it in the ditch for well over four years.

Who wouldn’t want to go back to how things were in 2006?

ITguy on October 30, 2013 at 3:59 PM

Everybody knows that businesses don’t hire near New Year’s Day, MLK Day, Valentine’s Day, St. Patrick’s Day, Easter, Cinco de Mayo, Flag Day, Independence Day, Labor Day, National Pudding Day, Halloween…

mankai on October 30, 2013 at 3:59 PM

I thought that was common knowledge.

My apologies.

OhEssYouCowboys on October 30, 2013 at 3:38 PM

That’s just like a Cowboy’s fan to be blindly optimistic. Utopia. Sure. What’s next? The Cowboys in the Super Bowl… and they win?

oldroy on October 30, 2013 at 4:00 PM

Wait until we all get our $2500.00 in healthcare insurance savings and have more discretionary income to spend. Oh, nevermind.

Ellis on October 30, 2013 at 4:03 PM

That’s just like a Cowboy’s fan to be blindly optimistic. Utopia. Sure. What’s next? The Cowboys in the Super Bowl… and they win?

oldroy on October 30, 2013 at 4:00 PM

oldroy, yer killin’ me!

I’m being SARCASTIC! I’m LAUGHING at the COMMIE fools. Their UTOPIA always collapses into DYSTOPIA.

And I’m NOT a Dallas Cowboys fan … OhEssYou = OSU = Oklahoma State University!

OhEssYouCowboys on October 30, 2013 at 4:07 PM

And I’m NOT a Dallas Cowboys fan … OhEssYou = OSU = Oklahoma State University!

OhEssYouCowboys on October 30, 2013 at 4:07 PM

Oh. OhEssYou. Oh. Must be a redneck…

oldroy on October 30, 2013 at 4:10 PM

Oh. OhEssYou. Oh. Must be a redneck…

oldroy on October 30, 2013 at 4:10 PM

For once, you got it right!

OhEssYouCowboys on October 30, 2013 at 4:13 PM

Wonder how far down that 130K will be revised next month???…

PatriotRider on October 30, 2013 at 3:37 PM

Better yet, remember how overstated the ADP numbers have been in the past.

yesiamapirate on October 30, 2013 at 4:15 PM

Employment is soooo Bush-era.

O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA!

Murphy9 on October 30, 2013 at 4:21 PM

404 Administration

Schadenfreude on October 30, 2013 at 3:28 PM

I think rule .303 will overrule any error 404. It may come to that.

Oldnuke on October 30, 2013 at 4:21 PM

And I’m NOT a Dallas Cowboys fan … OhEssYou = OSU = Oklahoma State University!

OhEssYouCowboys on October 30, 2013 at 4:07 PM

LOL! Everybody knows OSU means Ohio State University. This is all so confusing. Go Bucks!

yesiamapirate on October 30, 2013 at 4:25 PM

The numbers will continue to drift lower because:

1) We want to hire, but… we have our 49 allotment of full time employees, so…

2) Any positions that are open are part-time only.

I would like to thank the dumba$$es (notably Democrats and Benedict Roberts) for the fact we can’t hire anyone without taking a major financial hit.

Turtle317 on October 30, 2013 at 4:26 PM

404 Administration

Schadenfreude on October 30, 2013 at 3:28 PM

I think rule .303 will overrule any error 404. It may come to that.

Oldnuke on October 30, 2013 at 4:21 PM

Breaker Morant! Great movie.

yesiamapirate on October 30, 2013 at 4:28 PM

ITguy on October 30, 2013 at 3:59 PM

That’s an….. interesting post. Why don’t you just go here and start from the beginning. Denninger is an arrogant ass, but he’s right more than he’s wrong.

DFCtomm on October 30, 2013 at 4:34 PM

LOL! Everybody knows OSU means Ohio State University. This is all so confusing. Go Bucks!

yesiamapirate on October 30, 2013 at 4:25 PM

I thought it was TOSU!

:OP

OhEssYouCowboys on October 30, 2013 at 4:34 PM

Breaker Morant! Great movie.

yesiamapirate on October 30, 2013 at 4:28 PM

A fantastic movie.

Rule 303

OhEssYouCowboys on October 30, 2013 at 4:36 PM

The trend is not supportive of the other “S” word liberals like to toss around – the sequester began in earnest on April Fool’s Day.

A housekeeping note for those of you who want to guess the November jobs and unemployment numbers – while the furloughed (and back-paid) federal workers will affect the unemployment rate, they will not affect the jobs created/lost numbers.

Steve Eggleston on October 30, 2013 at 5:01 PM

Er, October jobs/unemployment numbers.

I really need to stop doing these typos before Monday ;-)

Steve Eggleston on October 30, 2013 at 5:03 PM

Where’s Fiona.

Did anyone name this guy?

22044 on October 30, 2013 at 3:43 PM

I don’t think anybody did yet. The floor’s yours.

Somebody remind me to find Fiona before next week Friday.

Steve Eggleston on October 30, 2013 at 5:05 PM

For those of you interested in the further attempts of spin by Mr. Zandi, Tom Blumer was on the conference call.

Steve Eggleston on October 30, 2013 at 5:08 PM

I wasn’t aware the toilet paper industry was so dependent on government workers being out for 2 weeks.

THEY GOT THEIR BACK PAY!

GarandFan on October 30, 2013 at 5:26 PM

ITguy on October 30, 2013 at 3:59 PM

That’s an….. interesting post. Why don’t you just go here and start from the beginning. Denninger is an arrogant ass, but he’s right more than he’s wrong.

DFCtomm on October 30, 2013 at 4:34 PM

What’s your point? You don’t link to any particular post, and I’m not going to read everything “from the beginnning”.

Do you think that anything I wrote is factually incorrect?
My numbers are correct, and based on the BLS Employment-Population Ratio data.

ITguy on October 30, 2013 at 5:35 PM

I think the real sag in numbers will start next year when Obamacare really starts sucking up disposable income. Any business that depends on disposable income for it’s revenue stream is going to start hurting.

trigon on October 30, 2013 at 6:01 PM

Troll free

CWchangedhisNicagain on October 30, 2013 at 6:37 PM

What’s your point? You don’t link to any particular post, and I’m not going to read everything “from the beginnning”.

Do you think that anything I wrote is factually incorrect?
My numbers are correct, and based on the BLS Employment-Population Ratio data.

ITguy on October 30, 2013 at 5:35 PM

You cannot build a healthy economy upon debt, but seeing your affection for bubbles gives me the impression that you won’t get that. When I said from the beginning I meant from the beginning, and pay attention to the date stamps. He probably offers the best real time commentary about what happened and why it happened on the web.

DFCtomm on October 30, 2013 at 6:39 PM