Four different polls show support for ObamaCare increasing slightly since the shutdown

posted at 6:41 pm on October 22, 2013 by Allahpundit

Our new Townhall cousin Conn Carroll tracked the trends. Oof:

In fact, since the government shutdown began, every poll that has been taken shows Obamacare gaining in popularity, not declining.

The Washington Post/ABC News poll shows support for Obamacare rising from 42% approve/52% disapprove to 46% approve/49% disapprove.

CBS shows support for Obamacare rising from 39% approve/51% disapprove to 43% approve/51% disapprove.

CNN shows support for Obamacare rising from 38% approve/57% disapprove to 41% approve/56% disapprove.

Rasmussen shows support for Obamacare rising from 43 approve/53% disapprove to 46% approve/48% disapprove.

None of those gains are dramatic but they’re all in the wrong direction. Here’s what this looks like on RCP’s graph tracking average approval of ObamaCare (black line) and disapproval (red line). As October begins, the red line droops.

oc

Conn draws two conclusions. One: The “defund” strategy failed. Hard to argue, no matter what you think the “real” goal of the defund effort was. If it was about building a grassroots groundswell of opposition that would frighten Obama and Reid into caving to GOP demands and agreeing to defund the law, then … support for the law should not have gone up. If, more modestly, it was all about raising awareness of O-Care’s many problems, then … support for the law should not have gone up. The numbers shouldn’t even have been flat. They should, at the barest minimum, have showed a small decline reflecting that the public was responding to GOP messaging on ObamaCare. Instead, this.

Two: Conn thinks public disdain for the GOP’s “defund” tactics (“making Republicans look like tone-deaf extremists unfit to govern”) might be contributing to the uptick in support for ObamaCare. I don’t know about that. I doubt, in fact, that the sunnier polling on O-Care has as much to do with the shutdown as it does with the launch of the exchanges on October 1, the same day that the shutdown began. It seems … insane that the public might support the law more after three weeks of enduring the Healthcare.gov apocalypse than it did before, but never forget that (a) a lot of voters are badly, badly informed on current events and (b) even the ones who are well informed are apt to let partisan loyalties dictate their view of policy. Here’s a table from Pew’s new poll, conducted between Oct. 9th and 13th, illustrating both points:

well

Young adults, who tilt liberal, are evenly split on whether the site’s working well or not. Democrats generally and black voters specifically, both core parts of O’s base, think the sites are working well on balance even though The One himself acknowledged yesterday in his presser that they aren’t. This is what happens when voters get in a defensive crouch about a major failure by their party. And this is where Conn is partly right, I think, about Republican tactics backfiring: To the extent that the standoff between Dems and the GOP during the shutdown got both bases’ backs up, it solidified some liberal support for ObamaCare that was weak until recently. Some lefties, remember, oppose O-Care because they want a more socialist model for health care. But when Ted Cruz is on the Senate floor railing against Democrats for ruining America with the new exchanges, those lefties will firm up and say they support the law in the name of defending their party and the broader dream of universal health care. It’s not the particular “defund” tactics themselves that drove the higher support for ObamaCare, in other words, but rather the spectacle of bitter partisan deadlock for two weeks on television every night. The boost for O-Care is a function of partisans digging in. Mostly, at least: Amid all the stories about the website melting down, there’s also been coverage lately about the uninsured being excited to enroll. That’s probably worth something at the margins in shoring up Democratic support.

Anyway. Now that the partisan warfare on the Hill is over and Healthcare.gov trainwreck stories are bubbling up in all sorts of media, the October bounce for ObamaCare should start to fade. If, per Pew, perceptions of the website were at 29/45 nine days ago, imagine what they look like now. Disillusionment with the online exchanges is bound to cause some disillusionment with the law generally. And then who knows what happens if/when next month Obama announces that he has no choice but to delay part or all of it.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 2

It’s not over.

Bmore

Schadenfreude on October 22, 2013 at 8:49 PM

Report: White House Responsible For Obamacare Website Fiasco, “Didn’t Know What They Wanted… Kept Changing The Goal Post”…

Via Free Beacon:

Adding to the growing list of reasons for the failure in the Obamacare website rollout. CNN’s Joe Johns reports that the government did not know what they wanted from the website. The report concludes that the government “ kept changing the goal post…making it difficult for contractors to deliver a product.”

Resist We Much on October 22, 2013 at 8:52 PM

Four different polls show support for ObamaCare increasing slightly since the shutdown

I believe it.

Sorry, but this “America’s the greatest” and “love it or leave it” stuff is wearing thin. We have to face reality and admit that we’re surrounded by tens of millions of ignorant dumb$–ts who will drag the rest of us down.

Dr. ZhivBlago on October 22, 2013 at 8:45 PM

I’m certain there are millions of LIVs who STILL believe that Obamacare means a blizzard of free crap for them. Remember the wack job, who after the REB’s first election said “I won’t have to pay for rent, I won’t have to pay for gasoline…”

slickwillie2001 on October 22, 2013 at 8:53 PM

rik on October 22, 2013 at 8:42 PM

For telling us about this polling anomaly? I don’t understand.

Cindy Munford on October 22, 2013 at 8:58 PM

It’s interesting that while Obama is taking zero responsibility for this website flame out, I think people think that any discussion of this failure is picking on him. The guy is untouchable. The only time the public has been angry at him was when they thought he might get us into another war. I thought maybe the sky high premiums and deductibles might tarnish some of the glow but nope, a public who has said consistently that they don’t want Obamacare are now going to love it.

Cindy Munford on October 22, 2013 at 9:03 PM

Well, I could comment about the almost certainly high level of bovine fertilizer content in all of these polls, how much the Obama folks are undoubtedly pulling out all the stops and calling in favors to make sure the polls give them something to show *some* sliver of good news in, and the completely shocking willingness of even ‘conservative’ websites to a) help in that regard, and b) use it as an opportunity to crap on conservatives and toe the GOP establishment line at the same time…

But then, such commentary would be redundant and simply stating the obvious.

Midas on October 22, 2013 at 9:08 PM

Really? Are there still people dimissing polling as biased?

Did we learn nothing in the wake of the 2012 polling…?

JohnGalt23 on October 22, 2013 at 6:59 PM

The lesson you learned, then, was to simply believe every poll thrown out there? Just curious.

Midas on October 22, 2013 at 9:12 PM

So I see an ad here from housemajoritypac.com saying to tell the GOP to stop playing games with the economy. I follow the link and see that it’s nothing but liberal pap.

Why is HotGas advertising this shiite, and why am I frequenting a site which does this.

Bishop on October 22, 2013 at 7:13 PM

This surprises you after the content of the last few weeks? AP and Ed to a lesser extent have effectively written similar pieces – a number of them.

Midas on October 22, 2013 at 9:15 PM

So the polls are still showing that a majority of Americans are against Obamacare… Are we supposed to panic because their is a slight increase in Obamacare support?… Just stop the knee jerk reaction…

mnjg on October 22, 2013 at 9:40 PM

Oh please.
Imagine what it would be like if you were forced to live your life by polls.

JellyToast on October 22, 2013 at 9:52 PM

I don’t think anyone really expects web tech to be wretched forever.

dieudonne on October 22, 2013 at 7:13 PM

Wait until they find out the insurance and the medical care are wretched, too.

trigon on October 22, 2013 at 10:09 PM

It’s interesting that while Obama is taking zero responsibility for this website flame out, I think people think that any discussion of this failure is picking on him. The guy is untouchable. The only time the public has been angry at him was when they thought he might get us into another war. I thought maybe the sky high premiums and deductibles might tarnish some of the glow but nope, a public who has said consistently that they don’t want Obamacare are now going to love it.
Cindy Munford on October 22, 2013 at 9:03 PM

It’s like Americans believe less money in our pockets is a good thing.

mrscullen on October 22, 2013 at 10:18 PM

I’m still trying to figure out who they call for these polls. I’ve never once been polled. Ever. I feel left out.

Defenestratus on October 22, 2013 at 10:19 PM

Tea party/Ted Cruz/conservative deadenders FAIL. When something is under attack, and you can’t stand those doing the attacking, it’s only natural to feel more favorably toward whatever is being attacked.

Of course, the polls are wrong, just like they are always wrong when they don’t say what the TruCons want them to say.

You guys are a riot. Boy, does O’Reilly have your number, and he doesn’t hesitate to make the rightwingers look like the sanctimonious bullies they are, and point out what a small minority they are, blathering on in an echo chamber. Hopefully his 3 million viewers appreciate the truthtelling.

And if you don’t like what Ed and Allah write, why do you frequent HA? This place could use good housecleaning, to provide a better ratio of rational commenters to crazy rightwingers.

Meredith on October 22, 2013 at 10:37 PM

Merideth delivers the morning pick me up patriots. Let’s make this heifer’s bp go thru the roof.

Murphy9 on October 23, 2013 at 5:26 AM

Comment pages: 1 2