Gallup: GOP’s favorable rating drops to 20-year low

posted at 6:41 pm on October 9, 2013 by Allahpundit

Darn it, Ed always gets to post the fun polls while I end up with stuff like this. That’s the key to my eeyorism, you know. It’s not that I’m a pessimist. I’m just stuck with the damned late shift.

The lowest approval rating of either party since Gallup started tracking it in 1992, lower even than the GOP’s numbers were after the Clinton impeachment. And if you click the last link and scroll down, you’ll see that the party’s unfavorability is conversely at an all-time high, a point above where it stood during the financial crisis in late 2008.

gal

Two obvious caveats. One: National polls of favorability don’t tell you much about individual House districts, most of which are either solidly blue or red. And the news du jour rarely impacts public perceptions of a party so profoundly that it’s still affecting their brand years later. Look no further than the GOP rebound in 2000 in the graph above to see how quickly fortunes can change. It has, however, been a long time since Republicans crossed the water line of 50 percent popularity, thanks mostly to the Iraq-war backlash of Bush’s second term but persisting even through the big red wave of the 2010 midterms. Since they last saw 50, they’ve lost two presidential elections and lost seats in both the House and Senate in 2006, 2008, and 2012. Only during the initial ferocious backlash to Hopenchange three years ago did they gain. Party favorability certainly ain’t everything and maybe it ain’t even much, but it’s something.

Beyond that, the whole idea behind the “defund ObamaCare” strategy, I thought, was that risking a shutdown would draw public attention to the new health-care law, which would in turn boost opposition to it and generate a groundswell of discontent that eventually forced Obama to cave. Maybe that’s happening; there’s no way to tell since there hasn’t been a major poll taken on O-Care since the shutdown. But the fact that Gallup and other polls find the anti-ObamaCare party’s approval dipping lately isn’t an encouraging sign that that strategy’s working. For all the justified trumpeting of this morning’s AP poll that O’s approval rating had dropped to 37 percent, the fine print reveals that Congress’s approval now stands at … just five percent. What exactly is our pitch to Obama right now? That he should abandon his signature domestic achievement because his numbers are falling — even though ours are falling faster? That can’t be the “groundswell” we were hoping for. In fact, ironically, the worse the GOP’s numbers get, the more Obama may feel inclined to stand firm in protecting the law. The public may not like O-Care but they don’t like its critics either.

Two: People will say that the dip in GOP favorability is partly the product of Republican infighting rather than the wider public souring on the party. And, per Gallup, that’s true:

Self-identified Republicans are more than twice as likely to view their own party unfavorably (27%) as Democrats are to see their own party unfavorably (13%). The GOP’s unfavorable rating among Republicans is up eight points from September, compared with a one-point rise in Democratic Party unfavorables among Democrats. These findings may be consistent with the widely circulated narrative that the Republican Party is internally splintered on how best to handle the budgetary negotiations.

Independents, meanwhile, remain unimpressed with both parties: Thirty-two percent view the Democratic Party favorably, while 27% view the Republican Party favorably.

That’s encouraging in the sense that it means the broader popular backlash to the GOP is limited, not so encouraging in that it suggests an unusually deep split between disgruntled RINOs and conservatives. A divided party has its own problems (as we’re seeing vividly right now in Congress). Plus, if we’re going to question poll results by closely scrutinizing intraparty dissension, it’s only fair that we do the same to polls on ObamaCare itself. Opponents, me included, like to tout the fact that the law typically polls 40/55 or thereabouts, but buried in the crosstabs usually is the fact that a chunk of the opposition comes from liberals who think the law doesn’t go far enough. They want single payer, not The One’s insurance-industry boondoggle. How likely are those people to join a Ted-Cruz-led grassroots backlash against the law on grounds that it’s an unconscionable infringement on liberty? Even a devotee of national health care might balk at backing the defund effort on grounds that he doesn’t like the tea partiers who are driving it. In which case, the 40/55 figure doesn’t give you an accurate sense of the extent of the opposition.

Let me ask one question in all earnestness of people who support the “defund” strategy: Is there any conceivable set of facts that would led you to conclude that the strategy itself had failed? Obviously there are ways that it could succeed. We could get a bunch of polls tomorrow showing rising opposition to O-Care followed by the White House deciding that a one-year delay might not be a bad idea after all. That’s a win for Cruz and Lee and a loss for all the RINO skeptics. Conversely, though, if Boehner caves and passes a clean CR/debt-ceiling hike an hour before we’re due to hit the debt limit, that wouldn’t be treated by “defunders” as a defeat for the strategy, it would be treated as a sellout by Boehner and the RINO hordes, who refused to stand firm. Which brings me back to my question: What would have to happen for someone in the “defund” camp to say that the strategy, not RINO sabotage, was mainly to blame for failure? If new polls showed opposition to O-Care staying flat or even declining, would that do it (since it would prove that no groundswell had materialized)? Some people will say “If the GOP loses the House” next year, but that’s not true: That’ll simply be dismissed as the result of disaffected conservatives staying home to protest all the RINOs who broke their hearts again. So, again, what would be the proof that the strategy itself, not Boehner’s treachery, has been a mistake? Is this theory that good things will happen if we just hold firm falsifiable?

And if it’s foolproof, ironclad, 100 percent guaranteed to work, why was our “ask” so small? Why demand defunding ObamaCare instead of repealing it outright or, say, passing a balanced-budget amendment? Why not close down the government until Obama resigns? I don’t get it.


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The democrat party has at a minimum 13% permanent never to be question favorable number that never waivers. Almost like they are SLAVES who cannot use their own minds or something.

astonerii on October 9, 2013 at 8:46 PM

I don’t get it.

This is about teaching the GOP how to be the insurgent party…

William Eaton on October 9, 2013 at 8:46 PM

That’s a faith based position. I’m not interested in your religion.
 
rogerb on October 7, 2013 at 1:40 PM

 

..faith based…
 
Genuine on October 9, 2013 at 6:57 PM

 
Glad I could help expand your clever use of language, though.
 
How very genuine.
 
Care to try again at all?
 
rogerb on October 9, 2013 at 7:29 PM

 

Haha! Yeah!! I remember this theory about polls!! It was completely proved by the 2012 election!!!
 
Genuine on October 9, 2013 at 7:50 PM

 
Guess we’ll mark that down as a “no”.
 

Nope, it’s not falsifiable. Most of the hardcore conservative “strategies” and opinions aren’t falsifiable. But they sound great and get people amped up!!
 
…It’s never their fault. They never fail. They never chose a bad strategy. Someone else just always screws it up.
 
And so the delusion continues.
 
Genuine on October 9, 2013 at 6:57 PM

 
Well put, btw.

rogerb on October 9, 2013 at 9:03 PM

If someone can tell me how the GOP, who’s fighting to keep things funded, can be lower than Obama, I’ll be happy to listen. Obama has shut WWII vets out of the memorial, stopped funding for dead soldiers, stopped foreign tourists from viewing our national treasures, and allowed illegal aliens to march on the Mall, when they were keeping WWII vets out of the WWII memorial, how does that policy get you bonus points?

If Obama had Bush’s press, his polls would be 25 points lower.

bflat879 on October 9, 2013 at 9:09 PM

#ObamaCare isn’t ready for Big Labor, Big Government, or Big Business, so they all got exemptions. What about the rest of us? #DontFundIt #MakeDCListen
 
They not only knew that the Republican Party would be blamed for the shutdown they engineered, they came up with talking points to repeat to the media in order to try to deflect said blame:
 
1. What happens when you shut down the government and you are blamed for it?
 
—> We are simply calling to fund the entire government except for the Affordable Care Act/Obamacare.
 
—> If Congress is willing to defund this terrible law and stand up for the American people, the American people will support them.
 
JustTheFacts on October 9, 2013 at 7:24 PM

 
Plagiarism:
 

#ObamaCare isn’t ready for Big Labor, Big Government, or Big Business, so they all got exemptions. What about the rest of us? #DontFundIt #MakeDCListen
 
Seriously, Tea Partiers. Your organizers think you’re so freaking dumb, and so likely to make spelling errors, that they made you a list of things to Tweet. Don’t you know when you’re being insulted?
 
3. They not only knew that the Republican Party would be blamed for the shutdown they engineered, they came up with talking points to repeat to the media in order to try to deflect said blame:
 
1. What happens when you shut down the government and you are blamed for it?
—> We are simply calling to fund the entire government except for the Affordable Care Act/Obamacare.
 
—> If Congress is willing to defund this terrible law and stand up for the American people, the American people will support them.
 
http://www.deathandtaxesmag.com/207311/the-5-creepiest-things-about-how-the-koch-brothers-engineered-the-shutdown/

 
Notice the bolded part he edited out? This isn’t a simple “oh, I just forgot the link”.
 
The funniest part?
 

Thread Won.
 
libfreeordie on October 9, 2013 at 7:57 PM

 
From the college professor.

rogerb on October 9, 2013 at 9:11 PM

Gallup: GOP’s favorable rating drops to 20-year low.

First off, they (Boehner/Ryan/Cantor/McConnell/Cornyn) have HORRIBLE Communication skills. And let’s get real Ted Cruz and Mike Lee haven’t come off with a warm and fuzzy glow during this whole thing.

Secondly, who cares? I don’t. The base thinks the gop leadership sucks. I’d rate the gop at a 40-50 year low (that I’ve been paying attention) and I’ve voted republican in every presidential election with the hope I wouldn’t be disappointed. So there’s that.

Thirdly, the president is at an all-time low himself so again, who cares, he’s not running again and frankly he’s not running again but 2014 will certainly be another chance to make HIM the issue (as in 2010).

And finally, I dare Gallup or CNN or any of these agenda driven polls to ask this question:

Do you trust “politicians” in Washington to do the right thing?

I bet it would be off the charts, “NO”.

PappyD61 on October 9, 2013 at 9:27 PM

From the college professor.

rogerb on October 9, 2013 at 9:11 PM

Not a surprise, when you consider what libfreeordie and JustTheFacts consider to be reality.

Like other leaders of the rites of passage movement, Carruthers teaches that the true birthplace of world civilization was ancient “Kemet” (Egypt), from which Kemetic philosophy supposedly spread to Africa as a whole. Carruthers and his colleagues believe that the values of Kemetic civilization are far superior to the isolating and oppressive, ancient Greek-based values of European and American civilization. Although academic Egyptologists and anthropologists strongly reject these historical claims, Carruthers dismisses critics as part of a white supremacist conspiracy to hide the truth of African superiority.

Carruthers’s key writings are collected in his book, Intellectual Warfare. Reading it is a wild, anti-American ride. In his book, we learn that Carruthers and his like-minded colleagues have formed an organization called the Association for the Study of Classical African Civilizations (ASCAC), which takes as its mission the need to “dismantle the European intellectual campaign to commit historicide against African peoples.” Carruthers includes “African-Americans” within a group he would define as simply “African.” When forced to describe a black person as “American,” Carruthers uses quotation marks, thus indicating that no black person can be American in any authentic sense. According to Carruthers, “The submission to Western civilization and its most outstanding offspring, American civilization, is, in reality, surrender to white supremacy.”

But it gets better.

Carruthers is a defender of Leonard Jeffries, professor in the department of black studies at City College in Harlem, infamous for his black supremacist and anti-Semitic views. Jeffries sees whites as oppressive and violent “ice people,” in contrast to peaceful and mutually supportive black “sun people.” The divergence says Jeffries, is attributable to differing levels of melanin in the skin.

When you realize that both libfreeordie and JustTheFacts subscribe to the racist belief that skin color determines personality, their rantings become that much more entertainingly twisted.

northdallasthirty on October 9, 2013 at 10:02 PM

Whoops, link for above.

northdallasthirty on October 9, 2013 at 10:02 PM

northdallasthirty on October 9, 2013 at 10:02 PM

At least I can except the fact that since February 2013 Republicans have been planning and engineering the government shutdown as can be proven by REPUBLICAN websites/propaganda/right wing news stations and etc.

FreedomWorks
Coalition Letter: Congress Must Honor Sequester Savings and Defund ObamaCare Before It Is Too Late
February 14, 2013 “presents an opportunity to achieve even more savings by defunding and stopping the implementation of Obamacare,” http://www.freedomworks.org/blog/ryanriebe/joint-letter-on-sequester-savings

Fox News
80 House members: Shutdown better than ObamaCare
August 23, 2013 “More than a third of House Republicans urged their leader Thursday to trigger a government shutdown rather than fund the implementation of the health care overhaul they call “ObamaCare.” http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/08/23/80-house-members-shutdown-better-than-obamacare/

Tea Party Patriots
Get your Defunding Obamacare Toolkit
September 10, 2013 http://www.teapartypatriots.org/2013/09/get-your-defunding-obamacare-toolkit/

Just like when republicans believed all the polls were WRONG and Romney was going to win the election, NOW republicans again believe their own propaganda and therefore assume that they didn’t plan a government shut down since February 2013.

Its crazy and sad.

JustTheFacts on October 9, 2013 at 10:37 PM

FreedomWorks
Coalition Letter: Congress Must Honor Sequester Savings and Defund ObamaCare Before It Is Too Late
February 14, 2013 “presents an opportunity to achieve even more savings by defunding and stopping the implementation of Obamacare,” http://www.freedomworks.org/blog/ryanriebe/joint-letter-on-sequester-savings

therefore assume that they didn’t plan a government shut down since February 2013.

Its crazy and sad.

JustTheFacts on October 9, 2013 at 10:37 PM

Those bolded parts aren’t even the same thing. Do you even read your copied talking points?

nobar on October 9, 2013 at 10:52 PM

To your other point, the way I see it we’re in a war of attrition with the Democrats right now, which is fine by me. Obama is hemorrhaging support too. Most congressional Republicans are pretty much firewalled from losing – much more so than the many red state Democrats up for reelection who will be increasingly at risk as the fallout from Obamacare metastasizes. The shutdown has only really hurt government workers, and they’re not our voters anyway.

crrr6 on October 9, 2013 at 7:20 PM

I thought the Republican party was the populist party? There are many government workers, like many Americans, who live paycheck to paycheck. Government workers who are going to have trouble paying their mortgage and rent, providing for their families because of this shutdown. Republicans will be hurt too with the shutdown unless you believe federal workers are 100% democratic voters.

Ric on October 9, 2013 at 11:21 PM

Hey Del Dolemonte, you should reunite with your old powerline compatriots at itsaboutliberty dot com.

IronDioPriest on October 9, 2013 at 6:52 PM

I’ll get there one of these days!

Del Dolemonte on October 10, 2013 at 12:41 AM

And so the delusion continues.

Fake on October 9, 2013 at 6:57 PM

A+

Del Dolemonte on October 10, 2013 at 12:43 AM

This is the problem here

Counterfeit on October 9, 2013 at 7:03 PM

Your Party is the problem here. Name one time Socialism has ever succeeded.

Del Dolemonte on October 10, 2013 at 12:45 AM

JustTheFacts on October 9, 2013 at 7:14 PM

Wow, Stimpy, I’m a John Kricfalusi fan too! Are you a Red Green fan like him and Dave Sheetrock and bayam?

F+

Del Dolemonte on October 10, 2013 at 12:49 AM

JustTheFacts on October 9, 2013 at 7:15 PM

Thread Won.

libfreeordie on October 9, 2013 at 7:57 PM

“Waterloo”.

Del Dolemonte on October 10, 2013 at 12:52 AM

At least I can except the fact that since February 2013 Republicans have been planning and engineering the government shutdown as can be proven by REPUBLICAN websites/propaganda/right wing news stations and etc.

JustTheFacts on October 9, 2013 at 10:37 PM

 
I’ll except* your blatant plagiarism for a moment to ask :
 
Can you articulate your specific problem with our system of government?
 
If possible, would you pursue an amendment to the Constitution to remove the checks and balances between the branches?

rogerb on October 10, 2013 at 6:53 AM

* Genuine, did you catch that one? You may not get to use it as much as “faith based”, but be on the lookout for opportunities. You’ll look even more clever since it’s so subtle.

rogerb on October 10, 2013 at 6:56 AM

SO is Karl Rove smart enough to see that more people see themselves as conservative, so this means if the GOP moves to the right, their numbers will go up? They are so low because liberals will always hate them, but they have gotten conservatives to despise them as well.

Spartacus on October 10, 2013 at 8:56 AM

Too long and (sorry AP) boring to read. So forgive me if Allah got this, but it’s easy. Demwits still favor the Demonrats, but conservatives hate Republicans. So their “favorability” rating is low.

Yawn.

Jaibones on October 10, 2013 at 11:37 AM

Pollster’s recipe:

1) Rely on landlines in the 21st century
2) Rely on people willing to answer their landline during the dinner/evening hours.
3) Rely on people who lack caller ID in the 21st century or who answer landline despite caller ID displaying 800 numbers, pollster name, or spoofed/blocked info
4) Rely on people willing to disclose personal information, including household income, family composition, zip code, etc. to a complete stranger over the phone
5) Rely on people who, in conjunction with their use of a landline, also get news from networks, hometown newspapers (with loads of AP reprints) and local TV.
6) Rely on people easily manipulated by loaded questions, push-polls, etc.

It’s like asking Ray Charles to land a jetliner, yet the media, the public and the politicians treat these polls like the Gospel.

jangle12 on October 10, 2013 at 11:57 AM

If the “defund strategy” is defined to be denying CR funds with the objective of preventing the implementation of Obamacare, a falsifiable outcome would be succeeding in withholding such funds, but experiencing Obamacare’s implementation nevertheless, financed solely with the funding level “permanently appropriated” with its inital passage. In short, an event proving that the incremental funding provided by a CR was not a necessary condition to Obamacare’s implementation.

Barnestormer on October 10, 2013 at 12:02 PM

They were elected to do what WE want, not for polls or public approval. We want them to cut spending, reduce government reliance, cut useless programs and end Obowmacare.

dthorny on October 10, 2013 at 12:12 PM

Its crazy and sad.
JustTheFacts on October 9, 2013 at 10:37 PM

Enough about you you godless sodomite reprobate.

Murphy9 on October 10, 2013 at 1:17 PM

I knew from the moment we started this that defunding Obamacare was unlikely to succeed. That said, I approved of Cruz’s strategy because it did two things. The first was to bring Obamacare’s faults to the forefront of the news media, and second, to boost the morale of conservatives who have watched the Republican Party leadership wiffle and waffle back and forth, uttering inane comments like “we only should fight the battles we can win.” Hardly. Fight ALL the battles! Some we will lose! Like defunding Obamacare. But you still need to FIGHT. I’m not interested in compromise anymore. Look what Democrats have done to the country! It’s time to stand up and say, “hey. No more. We’re done. You can’t do this. And as long as we have the power to stop you, we’ll do just that. So you’ll either pony up and negotiate at least a little, or stew.” Now… I think the current strategy will either be done when we win (Obama at least negotiates SOMETHING – preferably the year delay) or lose (House Republicans roll over like dead dogs, worried about poll numbers instead of their principles, and give the President what he wants.)

eyesights on October 10, 2013 at 1:35 PM

I’m not interested in compromise anymore. Look what Democrats have done to the country!

The agreement originally reached with REPUBLICAN spending that Obama said he would sign would have funded the government at $988 billion of discretionary spending for the full year.

SO WHAT IS THE PROBLEM?

According to the CBO OBAMA/Obama care will lower the deficit even more but REPUBLICANS want to RAISE the deficit.

Estimated Budgetary Effects from 2012 to 2021: Direct Spending and Revenues:

On net, CBO and JCT’s latest comprehensive estimate is that the effects of the two laws on direct spending and revenues related to health care will reduce federal deficits by $210 billion over the 2012–2021 period (see Table 1).

http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/ftpdocs/121xx/doc12119/03-30-healthcarelegislation.pdf

CBO and JCT have estimated that the ACA will reduce deficits over the next 10 years and in the subsequent decade.

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/44176

And the new CBO report then referenced its 2012 letter to John Boehner where it estimated the effect of the Republican bill H.R. 6079, which would have repealed Obamacare would INCREASE THE DEFICIT:

Assuming that H.R. 6079 is enacted near the beginning of fiscal year 2013, CBO and JCT estimate that, on balance, the direct spending and revenue effects of enacting that legislation would cause a net increase in federal budget deficits of $109 billion over the 2013–2022 period. Specifically, we estimate that H.R. 6079 would reduce direct spending by $890 billion and reduce revenues by $1 trillion between 2013 and 2022, thus adding $109 billion to federal budget deficits over that period.

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/43471

JustTheFacts on October 10, 2013 at 2:17 PM

The problem the Repub establishment has is that both liberals and true conservatives find them unfavorable. They’re getting it from both ends of the spectrum. They keep butt kissing the dems while kicking the true conservatives, especially in the Senate. If they don’t wise up either there will be a third party, or more likely true conservatives will simply take control of the Republican Party. Then we will have a party that actually listens to us.

CTimbo on October 10, 2013 at 7:04 PM

And the new CBO report then referenced its 2012 letter to John Boehner where it estimated the effect of the Republican bill H.R. 6079, which would have repealed Obamacare would INCREASE THE DEFICIT:

 
JustTheFacts on October 10, 2013 at 2:17 PM

 
Ha.
 
Direct plagiarism from dailykos.
 

And the new CBO report then referenced its 2012 letter to John Boehner (pdf), which estimated the effect of the Republican bill H.R. 6079, which would have repealed Obamacare:
 
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/10/10/1245897/-Debunking-Ryan-s-zombie-lie-Obamacare-doesn-t-add-to-the-deficit-it-actually-reduces-it

rogerb on October 11, 2013 at 8:00 AM

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