The coming “Let’s make a deal” shutdown moment

posted at 8:31 am on October 5, 2013 by Jazz Shaw

Over at NRO, Robert Costa has spent the last 48 hours digging in to all his sources among Republicans on the hill and is pretty sure that there’s a deal coming, despite media celebrations to the contrary. From the sounds of it, it’s not a total capitulation to the White House, but there’s also no chance of some sort of grand bargain which either side can list on their resume. Instead, if the Shutdown Beast is to be slain, it won’t be with one massive coup de grace, but rather a death of a thousand cuts.

It hasn’t been announced, and you won’t hear about it today, but the final volley of the fiscal impasse, at least for House Republicans, is already being brokered. And according to my top sources — both members and senior aides — it won’t end with a clean CR, or with a sprawling, 2011-style budget agreement. It’ll end with an offer — a relatively modest mid-October offer that concurrently connects a debt-limit extension, government funding, and a small, but strategically designed menu of conservative demands…

But details are floating to the surface as the leadership reaches out to internal power brokers about what’s within the realm of the possible. What I’m hearing: There will be a “mechanism” for revenue-neutral tax reform, ushered by Ryan and Michigan’s Dave Camp, that will encourage deeper congressional talks in the coming year. There will be entitlement-reform proposals, most likely chained CPI and means testing Medicare; there will also be some health-care provisions, such as a repeal of the medical-device tax, which has bipartisan support in both chambers. Boehner, sources say, is expected to go as far as he can with his offer. Anything too small will earn conservative ire; anything too big will turn off Democrats.

If you tried to string all of that together into one package, it would smack of a “grand bargain” and it would be far too easy to find small coalitions of offended parties who would band together to shoot it down. So it looks like we’ll be back to the table with another series of piecemeal bills, turning on the government one slice at a time while extracting some form of concession – no matter how minor it may appear – in exchange for each. In exchange, they would dangle some goodies in front of the Democrats, including backing off on a few pieces of sequestration. Assuming it works, you eventually wind up with so little of the government shut down that it’s not worth fighting over any more and life goes on.

Among the list of demands, the most intriguing one is certainly the idea of gaining some traction on tax reform, which you normally only hear about at election time. (After which, it’s promptly forgotten until the next election.) But is there any meat on that bone? A “mechanism” for revenue-neutral tax reform that will encourage deeper congressional talks next year? That sounds like the language of people who want to get off the hook by talking about something really popular without having to put their name to any serious changes. But who knows? Perhaps I’m just cynical.

But the keystone of this entire plan seems to rely on something which is none too certain. Up until this point, Obama has drawn a red line in the sand over any negotiating or agreeing to any partial funding bills, insisting that it’s going to be all or nothing and no deals will be made. Getting the Democrats to the table on this sort of thing would require the President completely retreating from that very publicly stated red line and agreeing to a totally different…

Hey, maybe this could work after all.


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How about kill the individual mandate?

Stoic Patriot on October 5, 2013 at 8:35 AM

They will get nothing, and they will love it.

Steve Eggleston on October 5, 2013 at 8:37 AM

…how about “NO DEALS” anymore?

KOOLAID2 on October 5, 2013 at 8:38 AM

How about kill the individual mandate?

Stoic Patriot on October 5, 2013 at 8:35 AM

Never was going to happen – El Partido Republicano Legado loves it as much as their partners in the bipartisan Party-In-Government.

Besides, we don’t dontate as much as Big Pharma.

Steve Eggleston on October 5, 2013 at 8:38 AM

A “mechanism” for revenue-neutral tax reform

Think about that for a moment.
.
.
.
.
.

Tax reform is needed because we pay too much of our income to the government. So we’re getting a plan (maybe sorta) that will reform the tax code, but we’ll still be paying the same amount.

Huh?

BobMbx on October 5, 2013 at 8:41 AM

Getting the Democrats to the table on this sort of thing would require the President completely retreating from that very publicly stated red line and agreeing to a totally different…

Hey, maybe this could work after all.

Obama will take a tougher stance against conservatives than he did against the butcher Assad.

Barry Hussein considers American conservatives a much bigger threat (than a mere mass murderer like Assad) to the kind of world Barry wants to see.

AZCoyote on October 5, 2013 at 8:42 AM

PAYGO

Bmore on October 5, 2013 at 8:45 AM

To think I thought Bill Frist’s Congress was the worst ever.

Bmore on October 5, 2013 at 8:47 AM

KOOLAID2 on October 5, 2013 at 8:38 AM

I’m with you, my friend.

kingsjester on October 5, 2013 at 8:50 AM

To think I thought Bill Frist’s Congress was the worst ever.

Bmore on October 5, 2013 at 8:47 AM

Come on – Cave-A-Lott’s Congress was worse than that.

Steve Eggleston on October 5, 2013 at 8:51 AM

This is shutdown is about Obamacare.

Any deal that avoids a hit on O’care will be considered a draw at best.

GOP should wait for another week of polls before acting.

Starve the beast!

mjbrooks3 on October 5, 2013 at 8:52 AM

With all of the cutting going on, seems Dear Leader still has plenty of money to continue rolling out Obamacare. No cutbacks or shutdowns there.

Because advancing socialism is much more important than keeping The People’s open air war memorial parks open to The People.

Forward, Comrades!

Of course, the rollout is so f’d up it sort of regularly shuts itself down.

I assume Comrade O is now paying his own greens fees and all other costs associated with playing golf — costs associated with Secret Service protection, transportation to/from course, closing the golf course to everyone else for a few hours, etc. Or is that also more important than keeping The People’s open air war memorial parks open to The People?

farsighted on October 5, 2013 at 8:56 AM

Make that POS live — and die — by his latest “red line.”

Don’t. Blink.

Rational Thought on October 5, 2013 at 8:58 AM

Breitbart is running this as an exclusive headline on their Big Government site…don’t know if it has any legs….
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2013/10/04/Exclusive-Bachmann-GOP-conference

theotherone on October 5, 2013 at 9:00 AM

Surrender just as a glimmer of victory shows on the horizon. The Republican way.

1) Obama’s approval is dropping sharply.
2) The screams of people signing up for their new health care and finding out what they will actually have to pay are growing louder by he minute. Go to:

https://www.facebook.com/Healthcare.gov

and do some reading.

3) The software supporting this endeavor may be fatally flawed. It would not be the first time the US government has tried large scale software and failed completely. The IT gurus are beginning to smell a fatal software rat in the programming and are beginning to talk and write about it.

Viator on October 5, 2013 at 9:03 AM

KOOLAID2 on October 5, 2013 at 8:38 AM

I’m with you, my friend.

kingsjester on October 5, 2013 at 8:50 AM

…saw that!…and there was a prize behind curtain # 2!

KOOLAID2 on October 5, 2013 at 9:07 AM

Never was going to happen – El Partido Republicano Legado loves it as much as their partners in the bipartisan Party-In-Government.

Besides, we don’t dontate as much as Big Pharma.

Steve Eggleston on October 5, 2013 at 8:38 AM

i don’t know about that. wouldn’t the Rep’s and Dem’s agreeing not to fine people for not buying a health insurance policy for another year or two be the same thing as delaying the individual mandate? that’s something….and then decreasing the tax again on medical equipment might be another.
i’m more convinced than ever that this thing is gonna collapse very soon.it’s just untenable, utterly unworkable. the trick will be to get obama to ask himself, why would he want his name on it? his legacy? c’mon

gracie on October 5, 2013 at 9:09 AM

Breitbart is running this as an exclusive headline on their Big Government site…don’t know if it has any legs….
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2013/10/04/Exclusive-Bachmann-GOP-conference

theotherone on October 5, 2013 at 9:00 AM

I really hope this is true, because the way this shut down is EXPOSING the fascist impulses of the democrats and the regime is astonishing. Talk about not letting a crisis go to waste! This particular crisis is exposing Obama’s War on the American People and handing a huge gift to the GOP. The American people are cannon fodder for this regime, nothing more, and that is finally being seen by large numbers of the population. I hope your link is true that this gift is beginning to dawn on the GOP.

Rational Thought on October 5, 2013 at 9:17 AM

Barry Hussein considers American conservatives a much bigger threat (than a mere mass murderer like Assad) to the kind of world Barry wants to see.

AZCoyote on October 5, 2013 at 8:42 AM

In the Marxist world view enemies of socialism are the greatest enemies. Those who obstruct or hinder the advance of socialism are pure evil. And they are also probably racists.

farsighted on October 5, 2013 at 9:19 AM

Candidate

Bmore on October 5, 2013 at 9:22 AM

So it’s going to be a “whole bunch of lovely parting gifts” bargain.

rbj on October 5, 2013 at 9:24 AM

rbj- our money at work….once again.

CWchangedhisNicagain on October 5, 2013 at 9:37 AM

Not one of those ideas sounds plausible or possible to me. They ALL SUCK.

So, the real game is just finding SOME WAY TO CAPITULATE for Republicans.

I won’t bother to show up at the polls in 2014 to support Republicans. What’s the point?

mountainaires on October 5, 2013 at 9:37 AM

2) The screams of people signing up for their new health care and finding out what they will actually have to pay are growing louder by he minute. Go to:

https://www.facebook.com/Healthcare.gov

and do some reading.

Viator on October 5, 2013 at 9:03 AM

Many Dem Party voters are finding out that paying for what Dear Leader has dictated is the minimum mandatory coverage everyone must have and pay for — the so-called “Bronze” plan the socialist social engineers have specified — will be far from free unless they are at or below the poverty line, even with some amount of government subsidy. And that doesn’t take into account the high deductible.

Not to mention the premium costs and the deductible will only go up year after year.

Plus, if they chose to not purchase health insurance they will have to pay a new tax penalty that is tied to their income. It is also scheduled to go up year after year, and at a rate much faster than inflation or their likely income.

“Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.” – H. L. Mencken

farsighted on October 5, 2013 at 9:37 AM

Tax reform is needed because we pay too much of our income to the government.

No. We don’t get the choice of paying less taxes, and never will–the government has $100 trillion in unfunded liabilities. In fact, you can pretty much bank on seeing a Value Added Tax introduced sometime within the next 20 years, no matter what happens now. Tax reform is needed because the way our current tax code extracts its 70 pounds of flesh is pretty much the most economically destructive method possible. Tax preparation wastes billions of dollars, corporate tax rates are the highest in the world (when from an economic standpoint they should be zero), double-taxation of foreign revenues forces companies to offshore jobs, and corporate welfare and crony capitalism are baked into every nook and cranny of the tax code.

No elected US government will ever reduce taxes, ever again. It’s simply not possible. But there’s still time to grow our way out of disaster if something like the Ryan Plan can be passed. Of course, that’s exactly why nothing like the Ryan Plan will be tolerated by the Democrat-media axis, but it’s heart-warming that the Republicans are at least trying.

Fabozz on October 5, 2013 at 9:38 AM

Getting the Democrats to the table on this sort of thing would require the President completely retreating from that very publicly stated red line and agreeing to a totally different…

Hey, maybe this could work after all.

No it won’t. The President isn’t interested in retreating. Shutdown continues at least until the debt ceiling is closer.

Happy Nomad on October 5, 2013 at 9:40 AM

So it’s going to be a “whole bunch of lovely parting gifts” bargain.

rbj on October 5, 2013 at 9:24 AM

The way it is being floated, it sounds as if the lazy stupid bastard and his corrupt party get all they want. The GOP gets Rice-a-Roni, Turtle Wax, and the home edition of Congressional negotiation.

Happy Nomad on October 5, 2013 at 9:43 AM

Rational Thought on October 5, 2013 at 9:17 AM

I’ve been saying since the start of the shutdown that the longer it goes on the better it is for the GOP because people will realize that the sky isn’t falling.

The GOP however, appears to be too stupid and the Establishment too wedded to DC, to take advantage of the opportunity.

As usual the GOP will negotiate away their advantage because they live in mortal fear of the MSM and the Democrats.

This is why Ted Cruz has become such a hero.

Continue calling your GOP Rep and demand they actually win this by defeating the socialists. Obamacare must be destroyed.

Charlemagne on October 5, 2013 at 9:43 AM

It’ll end with an offer — a relatively modest mid-October offer that concurrently connects a debt-limit extension, government funding, and a small, but strategically designed menu of conservative demands…

I can just see it. Son of Sequester … which the Weeping Boner will shout about being such a great deal (which cuts the heck out of defense while it leaves everything else pretty much intact – it might even add money to BarkyCare, knowing the Boner and how he “negotiates”) only to have Boner and the rest of the turds try to totally disavow it when it comes into effect … acting as if they had nothing to do with it and some alien came to Earth and dropped it on Congress …

When will the GOP friggin learn?? You don’t do any deals with dishonest slimeballs who have never operated in good faith in their lives. You just don’t. Barky has been trying to harm America and Americans during this faux shut-down (no big change, there, but this was more overt and obvious than usual) and the GOP is acting as if it hasn’t happened. They are beyond idiots. And the Weeping Boner still trumpets the same “default” BS that the mathematically illiterate Indonesian has been threatening (which should have gotten impeached when he first started it). Grrrrrr.

I friggin hate these people. Hate. Detest. Despise. Abhor. … I’m still not close to what I really want to express.

ThePrimordialOrderedPair on October 5, 2013 at 9:45 AM

We have to play the game with the team we have. We all knew it would end up like this. Every R who goes on TV says the same thing. They blame Cruz, it was never a game that they could win, the numbers wouldn’t allow it, they don’t see any way out of this. If you don’t have a clue, then it’s time to go. We should keep fighting until lame duck folds. Make him keep saying he won’t negotiate and make Reid keep saying he doesn’t like kids with cancer. Don’t ever fund the NPS and when the shutdown is over, rent them all out to the states or concessionaires. Most of the work on trails is done by volunteers anyway.

Kissmygrits on October 5, 2013 at 9:47 AM

Breitbart is running this as an exclusive headline on their Big Government site…don’t know if it has any legs….
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2013/10/04/Exclusive-Bachmann-GOP-conference

theotherone on October 5, 2013 at 9:00 AM

I tend to think this is more true than Jazz’s story (sorry, Jazz!). Didn’t the House put ten or so smaller bills to the floor yesterday? I’ve done so much reading the past few days, I’m not sure where I saw it. Maybe LegalInsurrection?

herm2416 on October 5, 2013 at 9:48 AM

One other tax in zerocare that Bonehead could repeal is the home sales tax. There is a 3% sales tax on home sales to help support the fu law that needs to go.

Kissmygrits on October 5, 2013 at 9:50 AM

Surrender just as a glimmer of victory shows on the horizon. The Republican way.

1) Obama’s approval is dropping sharply.

EXACTLY. Drudge says Gallup has him at 41%. As I recall when W hit 39% according to the MSM, the fat lady had sung.

Marcus on October 5, 2013 at 9:52 AM

1-800-F1UCKYO

That’s the phone number for Barky’s “signature” deformation of America. What more does anyone need to know about Barky and his intentions? Really.

Could anyone send a more direct message??

ThePrimordialOrderedPair on October 5, 2013 at 9:56 AM

How about Boehner and the rest of the GOP simply pass another CR like the fist one that defunds Marxist Care, send it to the Marxists and tell them take it or leave it, we’re going home.

Let them whine, call names, grandstand, I don’t really care, because in the end when all is said and done it’s going to take more than politics to fix the country.

bgibbs1000 on October 5, 2013 at 10:07 AM

Breitbart is running this as an exclusive headline on their Big Government site…don’t know if it has any legs….
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2013/10/04/Exclusive-Bachmann-GOP-conference

theotherone on October 5, 2013 at 9:00 AM

This could be good. The Democrats might have won the PR battle but Obama is unwittingly blowing it in his drive to be a dictator.

22044 on October 5, 2013 at 10:12 AM

So …Republicans get some weak kneed offer with promise to do it “later” and they give everything the Liberals need in other words.

Marcus on October 5, 2013 at 9:52 AM

This is the same MSM that called a 4%-5% UI, very good job participation rate, with job creating by the hundreds of thousands every month with most in full time…. the jobless economy.

watertown on October 5, 2013 at 10:14 AM

kingsjester on October 5, 2013 at 8:50 AM

Great Read, KJ. The five year old’s comments are a lolfest.

Reid has already told Boehner no deals until you surrender. Thats not negotiating that in fact is demanding.

dogsoldier on October 5, 2013 at 10:59 AM

dogsoldier on October 5, 2013 at 10:59 AM

Thank you, my friend. I’m enjoying playing with that Troll. Reminds me of the ones here.

kingsjester on October 5, 2013 at 11:04 AM

President Thelma & Louise will never go for it…

Khun Joe on October 5, 2013 at 11:10 AM

Tax reform is needed because we pay too much of our income to the government. So we’re getting a plan (maybe sorta) that will reform the tax code, but we’ll still be paying the same amount.

Huh?

BobMbx on October 5, 2013 at 8:41 AM

No. You’ll be paying more, but the billionaires will continue to pay nothing and the low or no income will get more subsidies.

Fenris on October 5, 2013 at 11:32 AM

…The GOP however, appears to be too stupid and the Establishment too wedded to DC, to take advantage of the opportunity.

As usual the GOP will negotiate away their advantage because they live in mortal fear of the MSM and the Democrats…

Charlemagne on October 5, 2013 at 9:43 AM

Not stupid, just not conservatives. Maybe there’s a little fear there, but it’s more fear of the base than the Democrats. Most of them not want to cut government spending in the first place.

Fenris on October 5, 2013 at 11:37 AM

Can’t we just get along? Dems have the power for now and there is little the GOP can do except maintain current spending levels. When the GOP gets the majority they can use the same reconciliation trick to get rid of O-Care. It will happen. No sense burning down the GOP house for nothing.

B.A. Moderate on October 5, 2013 at 11:41 AM

SNAFU

There is a very real possibility that NO ONE has been able to sign up for health care on the Obamacare website.

“No one knows how many people have actually signed up through the federal exchanges. As of Thursday morning, health-care reporters were desperately trying to find even one.” WaPo

“the problem, according to a number of designers, is that the site is badly coded, which makes the traffic problems more acute.” WaPo

Tech gurus tear into the software:

http://www.reddit.com/r/webdev/comments/1nifc5/i_guess_a_couple_of_are_trying_to_sign_up_for/?sort=confidence

Viator on October 5, 2013 at 12:02 PM

Let’s see reforms to root out the rampant fraud in food stamps and all other federal or federally subsidized charitable programs.

Let’s have an investigation of all SSDI claims in the last ten years, and a program to relook at each recipient’s ‘disabilities’ every five years or so.

Let’s have a rewards program for those that report fraud in all these federal programs.

slickwillie2001 on October 5, 2013 at 12:03 PM

If the GOP gets anything it will be a major defeat of Obama’s “I don’t negotiate with terrorists” rhetoric.

They never were gonna get much. The important thing was for the GOP to stand firm and stand together. Which the House GOP did.

myiq2xu on October 5, 2013 at 12:20 PM

No sense burning down the GOP house for nothing.

B.A. Moderate on October 5, 2013 at 11:41 AM

Its not for nothing.

Bmore on October 5, 2013 at 12:21 PM

AND THE BEAST CONTINUES CONTINUES TO FEED & GROW

now shut up and stop being all uppity

you know your place

roflmmfao

donabernathy on October 5, 2013 at 1:28 PM

Debris billionaires pay less because it is an INCOME tax. Not a wealth tax. They already EARNED their fortune.

PJ Emeritus on October 5, 2013 at 1:57 PM

I love how the GOP Establishment and their media shills are trying to sell this complete capitulation as a GOOD deal.

Can those trying their best to convince us that Ted Cruz had no plan, while calling all his proposals unworkable, explain how repealing the medical device tax (a lobbyist wet dream) and easing off sequestration (Democrats’ only defeat since Obama took over) and other bunch of crap is the brightest idea EVAH!

Democrat infiltrators masquerading as GOP leaders and their liberal staffers and aides strike again…

TheRightMan on October 5, 2013 at 2:26 PM

Pointless. He’ll just dismiss it out of hand and continue to wait out the Republicans. With Boehner on record saying he won’t let the nation default, Obama has no reason to do anything else.

The Schaef on October 7, 2013 at 9:05 AM