ADP jobs report: 166,000 private-sector jobs added

posted at 9:21 am on October 2, 2013 by Ed Morrissey

If the government shutdown lasts the rest of the week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics won’t issue its jobs report for September on time, so ADP’s look at private-sector hiring may be all we get for now.  We will eventually get the BLS report for September, as its surveys have long since been completed, but we may not get one for October if the shutdown lasts through its normal survey period in the middle of the month.  If that’s the case, then ADP’s October jobs report in November will be all we get for this month.

With that in mind, get ready for another month of meh:

Private sector employment increased by 166,000 jobs from August to September, according to the September ADP National Employment Report®. Broadly distributed to the public each month, free of charge, the ADP National Employment Report is produced by ADP®, a leading global provider of Human Capital Management (HCM) solutions, in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis. August’s job gain was revised down from 176,000 to 159,000. …

Goods-producing employment rose by 19,000 jobs in September, a slight increase over its August growth rate. Construction payrolls added 16,000 jobs, while manufacturing payrolls increased by 1,000.

Service-providing industries added 147,000 jobs in September, down from 152,000 in August. Among the service industries reported by the ADP National Employment Report, trade/transportation/utilities added the most jobs with 54,000 over the month. Professional/business services employment rose by 27,000, while financial activities shed 4,000 jobs.

Even Mark Zandi is less than impressed:

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “The job market appears to have softened in recent months. Fiscal austerity has begun to take a toll on job creation. The run-up in interest rates may also be doing some damage to jobs in the financial services industry. While job growth has slowed, there remains a general resilience in the market. Job creation continues to be consistent with a slowly declining unemployment rate.”

Well, no, it’s not. Adding 166,000 jobs in a month barely keeps up with population growth, which takes ~150,000 net new jobs a month. In order to create enough jobs to put back to work 80% of the 5 million who have left the workforce at this rate, we’d need 21 years.

Their chart demonstrates the Great Stagnation at stagnation levels:

adp-historical-2013-09

Even the ADP report, which tends a little toward the optimistic, hasn’t had a 200K month since December of last year.

CNBC calls this a miss, even while putting a happy spin on the numbers:

Private sector job creation came in lighter than expected in September but remained essentially in the same slow-but-steady growth range, according to a report Wednesday.

ADP and Moody’s Analytics pegged the monthly total at 166,000, lower than estimates of 180,000, with service-sector positions again leading the way. …

ADP revised its count for August down from 176,000 to 159,000, meaning September actually represented a modest gain the pace of job creation.

No, it means that both months barely kept pace with population expansion. And that is very similar to the overall trend since the technical recovery began 52 months ago.


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All PT, I’m guessing.

22044 on October 2, 2013 at 9:23 AM

Ted Cruz’s fault. Bastard!

Bensonofben on October 2, 2013 at 9:23 AM

I’m brokenhearted we won’t have our weekly propaganda.

ADP usually over estimates a bit, so 125k in reality?

Not looking good. With 73% temp and part time work, that’s actually really bad.

dogsoldier on October 2, 2013 at 9:24 AM

The market laughs at the ADP Report. It is very inaccurate and does not have good track record.

So yes, things are much worse than they seem.

Marcus Traianus on October 2, 2013 at 9:26 AM

Marcus Traianus on October 2, 2013 at 9:26 AM

The chart would seem to invalidate your statement.

Chris of Rights on October 2, 2013 at 9:30 AM

ADP revised its count for August down from 176,000 to 159,000, meaning September actually represented a modest gain the pace of job creation.

Seems like ADP always reports a number that is more favorable (if meh) to the administration only to revise down the next month.

Happy Nomad on October 2, 2013 at 9:32 AM

All PT, I’m guessing.

22044 on October 2, 2013 at 9:23 AM

Are you kidding? What this administration lacks in terms of job growth they make up for in the quality of the jobs that they do create. /

Seriously, part of the problem I have in these statistics is exactly what you point out. Jobs are not widgets yet a part-time burger flipper position and a job for a neurosurgeon are treated exactly alike. I suspect with the number of people finding themselves part-timers due to Obamacare is a statistic that can’t be hidden much longer.

Happy Nomad on October 2, 2013 at 9:36 AM

And that is very similar to the overall trend since the technical recovery began 52 months ago.

Worst. Recovery. Ever.

rbj on October 2, 2013 at 9:37 AM

It’s time to fundamentally change the way that we do business in Washington. To help build a new foundation for the 21st century, we need to reform our government so that it is more efficient, more transparent, and more creative. That will demand new thinking and a new sense of responsibility for every dollar that is spent. April 25th, 2009

Mission Accomplished?

Rovin on October 2, 2013 at 9:40 AM

Somewhat related – we ran some back of the envelope numbers on what would the effect of furloughing over 800,000 federal government employees be on GDP would likely be.

Teaser preview: very little….

ironman on October 2, 2013 at 9:42 AM

I don’t see why anybody pays attention to ADP. They are seldom even close.

jerryofva on October 2, 2013 at 9:43 AM

With the right to revise and extend—–

It’s time to fundamentally change the way that we do business in Washington. To help build a new foundation for the 21st century, we need to reform our government so that it is more efficient, more transparent, and more creative. That will demand new thinking and a new sense of responsibility for every dollar that is spent. April 25th, 2009

October 1st 2013—Government Shutdown and the roll-out of ObamaCare.

Mission Accomplished?

Rovin on October 2, 2013 at 9:52 AM

Wreckovery Autumn!!!

DRayRaven on October 2, 2013 at 9:58 AM

I wonder when California and Nevada will finally catch up on their initial and continuing jobless claims.

Seriously, part of the problem I have in these statistics is exactly what you point out. Jobs are not widgets yet a part-time burger flipper position and a job for a neurosurgeon are treated exactly alike. I suspect with the number of people finding themselves part-timers due to Obamacare is a statistic that can’t be hidden much longer.

Happy Nomad on October 2, 2013 at 9:36 AM

Well, the median wage has trended downward as the ObamiNation “advances”.

Steve Eggleston on October 2, 2013 at 9:58 AM

The chart would seem to invalidate your statement.

Actually, it doesn’t. The ADP report is notoriously inaccurate.

what validates my comment are not only the constant revisions, but the source of their numbers and calculation process.

Understand how this is assembled, in detail, and you will understand my comment.

Marcus Traianus on October 2, 2013 at 10:03 AM

Unintended consequences of business anxiety due to Obamacare.

socalcon on October 2, 2013 at 10:12 AM

In order to create enough jobs to put back to work 80% of the 5 million who have left the workforce at this rate, we’d need 21 years.

That estimate is way too long, since many of those 5 million are bound to suffer at the hands of the ACA health panels– they’ll expire before regaining employment… treatment is just not cost effective.

socalcon on October 2, 2013 at 10:15 AM

ADP is obviously racist.

cat-scratch on October 2, 2013 at 10:16 AM

Wait for next month; the democratics will use the federal slowdown to blame Republicans for a bad month, and then they will use that opportunity to correct the numbers to get rid of all the shenanigans used thus far to pump them up.

In business it’s known as “taking out the garbage”. You use devices, all quite legal of course, to make the data look good, and then when an opportunity comes along where you can blame outside factors for losses, you collapse all the schemes and report the bad numbers.

slickwillie2001 on October 2, 2013 at 10:17 AM

Unintended consequences of business anxiety due to Obamacare.

socalcon on October 2, 2013 at 10:12 AM

Um, not only anxiety, compliance to Obamacare.

Fallon on October 2, 2013 at 10:19 AM

We are following in the footsteps of Japan and the start of a lost decade. I looked at the GE bank website yesterday and the interest rate for their conventional savings account was 0.9%. Let that sink in for just a little bit. For the past 5 years you have been losing money by keeping it in the bank. Inflation and the deliberate devaluing of the dollar have penalized savers. By my crude estimate even factoring in compound interest, my savings lost 15% of their value since 2008.

And remember this is being done on purpose as part of a plan to devalue the debt America has. Inflation can not be allowed to get to high or the whole house of cards comes tumbling down as the interest on the debt would eat up over 50% of Tax revenues if inflation approached historical levels of ~4-5%.

Johnnyreb on October 2, 2013 at 10:27 AM

I blame George W. Bush the sequester the shutdown.

Ward Cleaver on October 2, 2013 at 10:32 AM

Keep voting democrat!

Murphy9 on October 2, 2013 at 10:37 AM

Funny how the media never comments on all the layoffs due to Obamacare. Just one straight sentence and then over and out.

PattyJ on October 2, 2013 at 11:00 AM

Steve Eggleston on October 2, 2013 at 9:58 AM

I told someone that yesterday and he more or less said it was all Bushes fault. If he had not collapsed the economy that would not happen.

You can not fix stupid really. I try man I really do, they are fellow Americans but I am to the point to just give up on them.

watertown on October 2, 2013 at 2:00 PM

ADP jobs report: 166,000 private-sector jobs added

Uh, yeah, whatever.

I told someone that yesterday and he more or less said it was all Bushes fault. If he had not collapsed the economy that would not happen.

You can not fix stupid really. I try man I really do, they are fellow Americans but I am to the point to just give up on them.

watertown on October 2, 2013 at 2:00 PM

Nah, they just don’t want to hear it. They will sell their souls to whomever gives them what they believe they innately deserve.

Dr. ZhivBlago on October 2, 2013 at 3:23 PM