Surprise: Poll now shows Ted Cruz leading GOP 2016 field

posted at 4:01 pm on September 27, 2013 by Allahpundit

I know, I know, it’s a PPP poll, but that’s good enough for Friday afternoon. Cruz’s lead is small and no one else in the field has slipped significantly, so this is less about Cruz gobbling up the competition than it is about him showing up as a real player in 2016. There is one data point that’s interesting, though. Here’s what PPP’s GOP primary poll looked like in July:

p1

And here’s what it looks like now:

tc

Cruz has pulled away from Rand Paul among the “very conservative,” turning a two-point lead two months ago into a 17-point lead now. That’s probably chiefly a function of Cruz’s greater visibility lately, with his 21-hour filibuster against the bete noire of ObamaCare supplanting Paul’s earlier filibuster against drones in the grassroots imagination. If so, then Paul can claw back some of that support later by taking another high-profile stand against one of Obama’s policies. But maybe there’s more to it than that; if Cruz emerges as the de facto leader of the tea party in Congress, and today’s NR report of him huddling with House conservatives against Boehner suggests that he might, then his hold on the “very conservative” might be more durable. Speaking of which:

Our numbers also suggest that Cruz is now viewed more broadly as the leader of the Republican Party. When asked whether they trust Cruz or GOP leader Mitch McConnell more, Cruz wins out 49/13. When it comes to who’s more trusted between Cruz and Speaker John Boehner, Cruz has a 51/20 advantage. And when it comes to Cruz and 2008 GOP nominee and Senate colleague John McCain, Cruz wins out 52/31. He now has more credibility with the GOP base than the folks who have been leading the party for years.

They didn’t poll Paul versus McConnell and Boehner, but with Paul backing McConnell for reelection in Kentucky, he’s not as well positioned as Cruz to be a grassroots figurehead against the leadership. But wait — if Cruz is vacuuming up conservative voters, how is Paul right behind him among Republican voters overall? Look again above and you’ll see that he’s increased his share of two other GOP demographics, the “somewhat conservative” and the “somewhat liberal,” where he’s gained 14 points. Maybe that’s the product of a small subsample, but it wouldn’t surprise me if him speaking out against mandatory minimum sentences for drug offenders lately has made an impression on socially liberal GOPers. If you had to guess how libertarian-leaning Republicans would identify themselves, “somewhat conservative” and “somewhat liberal” would be your guesses. So just as Cruz’s brand is starting to sharpen up, so is Paul’s. And then you’ve got Chris Christie in the middle, increasing his take of “moderates” by 10 points since July. That would be a nifty primary in 2016 — the centrist, the “true conservative,” and the heterodox libertarian, head to head to head. Seems less unlikely by the day.

Update: Ben Domenech argues that when you’ve got one candidate who’ll be dismissed as an establishment RINO sellout by the base and another who’ll be dismissed as a grandstanding fanatic by the donor class, the guy between them — i.e. Rand Paul — is in a good spot to capitalize.


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Palin’s no Richard Nixon. And she’s done nationally.

KingGold on September 27, 2013 at 5:49 PM

She is in fact no Richard Nixon, for good or ill. (Let’s try to keep in mind, Nixon was considered the best political mechanic of his day, something the GOP could sorely use right now.)

But I won’t say she is done nationally. She’s still relatively young. If she were to run and win the Alaska Senate seat, it would go a long way…

JohnGalt23 on September 27, 2013 at 6:11 PM

Folks are forgetting some of the Governors..Three years is a long way out..:)

Dire Straits on September 27, 2013 at 6:13 PM

I hate to be the voice of reason and I know the media and sites like this one make their money by pushing the narrative that things will be close but listen..

As long as there is an electoral college and you guys keep putting fourth these type of candidates you guys will continue to lose…

Argue until your blue in the face but you cant argue with history. You have to get Women, Gays, Blacks, and Hispanics to vote for you to win in todays America…

Simple as that..

Politricks on September 27, 2013 at 6:14 PM

But I won’t say she is done nationally. She’s still relatively young. If she were to run and win the Alaska Senate seat, it would go a long way…

JohnGalt23 on September 27, 2013 at 6:11 PM

Perhaps. But there’s zero reason to think she’d run. She’s saying exactly what she was saying in the run up to 2012, leading on her supporters for the better part of a year before finally saying no.

She’s not engaged in the political arena, her PAC is spending gobs of money on consultants and relative pennies on candidates, and Cruz and Paul are in the process of dividing up ground she used to call her own, and she’s doing nothing to distinguish herself from them.

KingGold on September 27, 2013 at 6:21 PM

Meanwhile, I’m still trying to call Cornyn’s office to let him know that he FAILED to represent the majority of Texans and Americans. I think I will call every single day until he is soundly defeated in the primary. He would rather listen to McCain, Rove, and the rest of the yahoos instead of listening to his constituents. This is exactly what has caused our disgust and frustration with the jokers in DC.

mobydutch on September 27, 2013 at 5:02 PM

Moby, I tried calling the Houston office number and the phone just kept ringing. Called the DC office number and got a recording. Left a sweet message telling Cornyn if he didn’t support Cruz, I would be working to primary him. So, any viable conservatives ready to take him on that you may be aware of? I so want Cornyn gone.

texasmagnolia on September 27, 2013 at 6:27 PM

Politricks on September 27, 2013 at 6:14 PM

Agre..We have to get the GOP message out to some areas we have played “lip service” to in the past that is for sure..:)

Dire Straits on September 27, 2013 at 6:34 PM

Politricks on September 27, 2013 at 6:14 PM

Agree..We have to get the GOP message out to some areas we have played “lip service” to in the past that is for sure..:)

Dire Straits on September 27, 2013 at 6:34 PM

Sorry..:)

Dire Straits on September 27, 2013 at 6:34 PM

My folks were always putting him down
They said he came from the wrong side of town
They told me he was bad
But I knew he was sad
That’s why I fell for
The leader of the pack

Basil Fawlty on September 27, 2013 at 6:35 PM

If anyone thinks even old people by the millions being left out on the streets with no healthcare and leaky bags of urine and bedsores would be blamed on someone OTHER THAN Conservatives……

You need help.

The Media would blame the “anarchists” in the gop and say we need “more INVESTMENTS” in healthcare “to help the poor and Seniors”.

PappyD61 on September 27, 2013 at 6:36 PM

You just need to call his Dallas office. They answer on the second ring. I asked if they could deliver a message. Yes, the polite young man said. “How does Senator Cornyn like the sound of Senator Gohmert?” I said. Hmph, said polite young man. “Will you please ask him?” I said. Yes, what is your zip code? “In Dallas. Thanks so much!” Click.

txmomof6 on September 27, 2013 at 5:11 PM

Love it!!! So, do you know a lot about Gohmert? I think all of us Texans on HA should get together, find a good conservative we can support, and work our tails off to get him/her to beat the pants off Cornyn. I’ve tried to talk a state rep into running against him, but he told me his family isn’t ready for that yet. I want Cornyn gone so bad I can hardly stand it.

texasmagnolia on September 27, 2013 at 6:36 PM

Argue until your blue in the face but you cant argue with history. You have to get Women, Gays, Blacks, and Hispanics to vote for you to win in todays America…

Simple as that..

Politricks on September 27, 2013 at 6:14 PM

Nonsense.

As the Pew Center poll showed, if as many “white” voters (the Republican base, the Reagan Democrats) had turned out for Romney in 2012 as did for McCain in 2008, Romney would have won.

Obama got 100, 000 votes less in 2012 than McCain got in 2008. A couple of states that Obama won in 2008 went back to Romney. And the key swing states– Virginia, Ohio, New Hampshire, Florida, Colorado, Nevada — went to Obama by narrow margins in 2012.

Latinos are 7% of the vote. Blacks 13%. Single women (who make up 30% of the Latino population and 40% of the black population) are about 23% of the electorate. But they’re unreliable voters, 11 million fewer turning out for the 2010 midterms than for Obama in 2008. Married women vote Republican.

That landslide coalition of WGBH (wait, that’s a tv station in Boston) and unmarrieds and a very hefty chunk of the “white” vote (including the Reagan democrats) will never turn out again for a Democrat candidate in the numbers they did for Obama in 2008. Bloom’s off that rose.

Republicans DO have a big voter problem, though. They can’t turn out their own base anymore. Today’s Senate votes ought to help with that./

de rigueur on September 27, 2013 at 6:46 PM

Chart of the Day: How Did Senators Vote Concerning The Debt Limit In 2006?

I guess that the Democrats were economic terrorists, suicide-bombers, anarchists, etc, back in 2006 SINCE NOT ONE, SINGLE DEMOCRAT VOTED TO RAISE THE DEBT LIMIT.

Not.

One.

Single.

Democrat.

Bloody hypocrites.

Resist We Much on September 27, 2013 at 6:47 PM

Argue until your blue in the face but you cant argue with history. You have to get Women, Gays, Blacks, and Hispanics to vote for you to win in todays America…

Simple as that..

Politricks on September 27, 2013 at 6:14 PM

We need an actual conservative, not another liberal jackass for a candidate. I will never again vote for a RINO.

May they burn in hell.

dogsoldier on September 27, 2013 at 7:25 PM

Argue until your blue in the face but you cant argue with history.

Why not? You seem to have no problem doing it.

You have to get Women, Gays, Blacks, and Hispanics to vote for you to win in todays America…

Simple as that..

Politricks

Yeah, that massive gay vote is a GOP killer, lol. If Romney had gotten 70% of the Hispanic vote and the gay vote, he still would have lost.

Maybe we should try running a moderate next time. If we just do the same thing over and over again, eventually we’ll get different results.

xblade on September 27, 2013 at 7:52 PM

Politricks on September 27, 2013 at 6:14 PM

Thanks so much for your concern.

slickwillie2001 on September 27, 2013 at 7:53 PM

Politricks on September 27, 2013 at 6:14 PM

Did you ever attend schools? In English?

Schadenfreude on September 27, 2013 at 7:56 PM

The 23 Gutless Republicans That Voted To Fund Obamacare

Resist We Much on September 27, 2013 at 6:28 PM

Thune, too? He, along with Graham, were on TV this week proclaiming they are voting against funding HusseinCare. So, both voted TWICE to fund it, cloture and then actual vote. Thune needs to be primaried, Graham already is and hopefully will be gone soon enough.

riddick on September 27, 2013 at 8:41 PM

Ted had to know his efforts were futile, but he stood up with the courage to smack down the RINO wing of the Republican Party. He stood his ground and stood strong on his convictions.

The scuttlebutt about Ted damaging the Republican efforts of winning the Senate in 2014 is just that…scuttlebutt. If anything, Ted has energized the “armchair Republicans and independents” who stayed home during the 2012 election. We have Stephen Hayes over at The Weekly Standard bashing Cruz for “attempts to enhance his own position in the conservative fantasyland he seeks to rule.” What kind of criticism is that coming from a dolt claiming to be a conservative? And just what is the “conservative fantasyland” that Cruz embraces? Could it be one of courage to stand up for and fight against Socialism, could it be having the guts to buck the status quo and fight for the founding principles of freedom and liberty? If Cruz is willing to forsake his political future by fighting for his convictions and the convictions of his constituency, then I am in his corner all the way.

I am tired of the finger pointing from the Democrats at the Republicans, I am tired of the finger pointing from the Republicans at the Democrats. It reminds me of two gigantic and powerful corporations like Google and Microsoft continuously bashing one another to gain more followers. This is much, much more than who has the best search engine in town. The future of our country is highly dependent on the politicians we elect to Congress. We either elect people to save us from the scourge of Socialism and hold them accountable when they fail, or we can throw in the towel, sit home during the elections, and let buffoons like McConnell, McCain, Boehner, Graham and the other RINO career politicians rake in their riches while our country collapses.

The Tea Party may not be the best to represent the urgent need for a 3rd party, but then again, maybe it is. They brought us Cruz, Rand, West, Palin and others who are jabbing forks in the ribs of the RINO’s and it is a pleasant sight to behold. It certainly has me energized and looking forward to working within a grassroots movement to clean out the deadbeat politicians who are only looking out for their sorry asses.

metroryder on September 27, 2013 at 9:06 PM

so this is less about Cruz gobbling up the competition than it is about him showing up as a real player in 2016.

Just the latest Palin. A nochanceinhell for the socons to pat each other on the back about, and talk down to everyone else.

We have seen this parade before, and we all know how it ends. The fail pile.

Moesart on September 28, 2013 at 12:28 AM

Yeah, that massive gay vote is a GOP killer, lol. If Romney had gotten 70% of the Hispanic vote and the gay vote, he still would have lost.

Maybe we should try running a moderate next time. If we just do the same thing over and over again, eventually we’ll get different results.

Run a socon and lose 50 states instead. You can’t even get anywhere close to the nomination in a Republican primary and you believe a socon would just sweep through America.

It doesn’t add up. Your math is poor.

And I’m really sick of the lazy losers that didn’t even vote last November preaching about voting. Yeah, these are the people that will save the Republican party.

Moesart on September 28, 2013 at 12:32 AM

What have we been telling the party of stupid for years? If you put forward a true conservative instead of a squishy moderate a landslide will happen. It doesn’t surprise me that Cruz is ahead.

neyney on September 28, 2013 at 1:48 AM

Run a socon and lose 50 states instead.

Moesart on September 28, 2013 at 12:32 AM

George W. Bush thanks you for your insight.

Stoic Patriot on September 28, 2013 at 8:54 AM

Just the latest Palin. A nochanceinhell for the socons to pat each other on the back about, and talk down to everyone else.
We have seen this parade before, and we all know how it ends. The fail pile.
Moesart on September 28, 2013 at 12:28 AM

Ted Cruz is a million times more capable and impressive than Palin EVER was.

The problem with Palin was Palin, not her politics.

bluegill on September 28, 2013 at 9:37 AM

Politricks on September 27, 2013 at 6:14 PM

Yes, because all those people are monolithic and can’t be persuaded right? I despise people who think like you do and thank The Lord it never stopped those who don’t.

Alinsky on September 28, 2013 at 12:29 PM

In what way, shape or form is this a surprise?

Ted Cruz has almost unanimous love and support from the conservative base. OF COURSE he would be the front runner–for the base (the ones who turn out and decide elections).

I suppose it’s only a “surprise” to RINOS who just want Christie or Jeb Bush to be president–they are so out of touch with what the actual base wants that when they hear about what the base wants it takes them by surprise because it is so far off from what they want.

rjcylon on September 28, 2013 at 2:55 PM

I will admit it – I was completely fooled by Cruz’s BS!

During his non-filibuster he lectured his fellow Republicans by saying, ” A vote for Cloture is a vote for Obamacare.”

Then the hypocritical, lying, self-promoting political thesbian VOTED FOR CLOTURE!

F* YOU, Cruz!

We don’t need another ‘YOU’. You almost had me fooled – You almost had me believing that there was one Politicians you could trust and count on and Washington.

easyt65 on September 28, 2013 at 3:56 PM

Everyone knows to Cruz is now. His name has shot to the top of the list of presidential candidate. Did he not know the fact that he voted FOR Cloture would be reported!? Thankfully his deceit & hypocrisy was exposed. I am both shocked and saddened by it, but better to find out now!

easyt65 on September 28, 2013 at 4:02 PM

I am shocked that Obama supporter Christie polls as high as he did in that poll. Are republicans STILL so STUPID that they believe an establishment RINO can defeat any liberal, even one with ZERO accomplishments to run on?

Maybe after everyone gets their Obamacare Tax INCREASES they will finally wake up, but if they remain this lethargic I’ll bet the democrat wins AGAIN in 2016 and for the same reasons.

Hasn’t anyone yet learned that the GOPe cannot ever be trusted? Isn’t it time to work to get a real Conservative [not one like Romney] elected?

DannoJyd on September 28, 2013 at 7:28 PM

If there’s nothing better to talk about, fine!

But people need to realize the likelihood of predicting the result of an open primary fight three years out is just not possible in the postwar era. Who were the favorites three years out in past cycles, and how were the eventual winners viewed three years before being nominated?

~

1952 – in 1949, the assumption was Truman would run for reelection (he was in until losing the NH primary), the general being considered for the GOP was MacArthur, and Ike was President of Columbia University.

1960 – in 1957, Nixon’s stock was on the upswing especially among conservatives, but the Rockefeller wing was even odds. JFK was thought of as a rising star, but few predicted he would win so quickly.

1964 – in 1961, Rockefeller was the clear frontrunner.

1968 – in 1965, Nixon was still in exile and Rocky was again the favorite, while every assumed LBJ would run again.

1972 – until July ’69 and Chappaquiddick, there was a growing feeling Teddy would run; after that, Muskie was the clear favorite.

1976 – in ’73 Agnew looked as strong as any GOP hopeful, the Teddy crowd was hoping, and nobody outside Georgia knew who the heck Jimmah Carter was.

1980 – Reagan was the frontrunner in ’77, but there were serious questions about the age factor, which is why the GOP field was the biggest ever.

1984 – For once, in 1981 Mondale was the favorite and won.

1988 – Bush was the 1985 favorite and won, but nobody outside Massachusetts had heard of Dukakis.

1992 – in 1989, most thought Clinton had ruined his chances with his awful ’88 convention speech, the slight favorite was Mario Cuomo.

1996 – Dole would have been the ’93 frontrunner, and won.

2000 – Gore was the frontrunner in 1997 and won, but the Bush being touted was Jeb, not W.

2004 – Kerry was among those first listed in 2001, but also Gore still had a strong following.

2008 – McCain may have been the frontrunner as “next in line,” but not by much. Nobody in 2005 expected Obama, then in his first year of his first Senate term.

2012 – Romney and Huckabee were equal frontrunners by 2009 opinion.

`

So it is very rarely that even a strong frontrunner three years out is nominated, and more likely the nominee will be someone we aren’t seriously considering now.

Adjoran on September 29, 2013 at 4:46 AM

These supposedly conservative Fox analysts keep repeating themselves from the same script. Reagen united the party. How can you unite a party filled with people like McRino, McConnell, Cronyn, Cantor. Most of the media leaks are from these old pukes who were around when Reagen ran the country. They’re not interested in the meaning of the Constitution, the sacrifices the signers endured or what Reagen taught us. We’re in a generation of “what’s in it for me”. That’s how they behave, that’s what we’re teaching the next generation.

RdLake on September 29, 2013 at 3:57 PM

I live in Arizona – the RINO State. But I’m proud to say that Ted Cruz is my adopted Senator.

TeaPartyNation on September 29, 2013 at 4:17 PM

How is Romney doing?

Oh wait, he’s the only Mormon in the world who didn’t know how to organize a door to door operation.

tetriskid on September 27, 2013 at 4:09 PM

Thread winner, short, smart, brutal, honest.

Everyone else stop posting, nothing will compare after this comment.

NextGen on September 30, 2013 at 8:51 AM

NextGen on September 30, 2013 at 8:51 AM

How can the best post in the thread not even be about the topic of the thread? Sorry, disgualified for not even talking about the subject at hand.

easyt65 on September 30, 2013 at 12:15 PM

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