Pew poll: Public would blame GOP, White House nearly equally for government shutdown

posted at 5:21 pm on September 23, 2013 by Allahpundit

For once, I get to break the good-ish news while Ed plays eeyore. A month before the 1995 shutdown, Pew notes, 46 percent of the public said they’d blame the GOP if it happened versus 27 percent who said they’d blame Clinton. Fast-forward to this week and the public’s more ambivalent: 39 percent would blame the GOP and 36 percent would blame O’s administration, with 17 percent saying both would deserve blame. If you’re in the Cruz/Lee defund camp, there’s some encouragement. There’s some statistical reason to believe that the Roveans who promise electoral doom if the government shuts down are overstating things.

Why “good-ish” news instead of good news, though? Because the rest of the numbers look similar to the data from the CNBC poll that Ed posted earlier:

tp

CNBC found that a plurality opposes defunding ObamaCare generally, 38/44, and really opposes it when a shutdown is required to do so, 19/59. Pew never asked explicitly about using a shutdown to force O-Care defunding, just about defunding as part of a budget deal per the last question in the table above. The numbers they got are actually slightly worse than CNBC’s general defunding question; presumably a follow-up specifying shutting the government down to defund O-Care would be even more dismal. (Here, as in the other poll, tea partiers make up the core of support.) How to square that with the fact that respondents blame the GOP and the White House nearly equally when asked about the prospects of a shutdown? Well, here’s how Pew framed the question about blame on its questionnaire:

p

They never mentioned ObamaCare as the potential cause of the shutdown. In fact, not until the last of the nine questions that they asked for this poll was O-Care referenced. What I think you’re seeing here in the “blame” data is simply how partisans respond in an information vacuum: Without any particular issue being identified, Democratic voters would reflexively blame the GOP in a shutdown and Republicans would reflexively blame O. Indies and centrists blame both. Would those numbers hold, though, for a shutdown over ObamaCare specifically, given that the public opposes defunding and that Obama, obviously, isn’t the party that’s trying to defund his namesake legislation? Note too that, so far, fewer people are paying attention to this week’s shutdown saga than in past shutdown situations. Per Pew, with a week to go, just 25 percent are following the news “very closely”; two weeks before last year’s “fiscal cliff,” 37 percent were following it very closely and one week before the 2011 debt-ceiling deadline, the number was 38 percent. I’m not sure if that means people will remain tuned out, which will limit the political damage from this game of chicken, or if people will simply be tuning in this week, with decisive public opinion more likely to be molded in the next few days than in the past. Either way, it’s a factor here.

Still, for vulnerable Republican incumbents, this is an easy call. Via the Corner, here’s Lindsey Graham doing his hamfisted best to signal to tea partiers how much he hates ObamaCare.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

this isn’t the nineties, inform the media.

rob verdi on September 23, 2013 at 5:25 PM

Better than expected…. shut it down

phreshone on September 23, 2013 at 5:28 PM

The harlot from the ‘right’ has written, the scumhag.

Schadenfreude on September 23, 2013 at 5:28 PM

Roger Simon is an incredible hack, who s/b fired.

Schadenfreude on September 23, 2013 at 5:29 PM

Praying for a shutdown.

Pork-Chop on September 23, 2013 at 5:35 PM

Would those numbers hold, though, for a shutdown over ObamaCare specifically, given that the public opposes defunding…

Um, what?

Midas on September 23, 2013 at 5:37 PM

If Pew has it even then it is substantially in favor of a shut down.

Lonetown on September 23, 2013 at 5:41 PM

How many favored shutting down the whole government instead of funding everything except Obamacare?

They didn’t ask? You don’t say?

forest on September 23, 2013 at 5:42 PM

C4P is reporting this via twitter:

Chad Pergram ✔ @ChadPergram

Reid effectively keeping Cruz off the floor now by keeping Senate in quorum call.
2:37 PM – 23 Sep 2013

23 Retweets 2 favorites Reply
Retweet
Favorite

Anyone on twitter that can find out about this? Thanks!

bluefox on September 23, 2013 at 5:46 PM

C4P is reporting this via twitter:

Chad Pergram ✔ @ChadPergram

Reid effectively keeping Cruz off the floor now by keeping Senate in quorum call.
2:37 PM – 23 Sep 2013

23 Retweets 2 favorites Reply
Retweet
Favorite

Anyone on twitter that can find out about this? Thanks!

I don’t know about any of that, but Cruz did speak on the floor a while ago.

takeamericabackin10 on September 23, 2013 at 5:51 PM

If the republicans really want to negotiate with Obama, I would advise them to show up dressed as jihadis.

birdwatcher on September 23, 2013 at 5:54 PM

Would those numbers hold, though, for a shutdown over ObamaCare specifically, given that the public opposes defunding

No they don’t. Have you been reading fugase CNN or MSLSD polls again?

80% of us want that mess repealed.

All the GOP has to say is Hey, we FUNDED THE GOVERNMENT. Not ObamaCare.

dogsoldier on September 23, 2013 at 5:55 PM

I don’t know about any of that, but Cruz did speak on the floor a while ago.

takeamericabackin10 on September 23, 2013 at 5:51 PM

Yeah he was out there and the local radio gave us some playback.

dogsoldier on September 23, 2013 at 5:56 PM

I suspect most people would be surprised at how many people wouldn’t give a **** about a gov’t shutdown. Maybe 20 years ago, but now? With a $17 trillion federal debt, runaway spending, and a gov’t takeover of health care? Most people would likely see it as a step in the right direction.

takeamericabackin10 on September 23, 2013 at 5:58 PM

In case of a shutdown, the only folks who will care live in DC or want to visit a national park.

If you are not in either of those two categories, you won’t even notice.

This is the Dem’s worst fear…what if you shut down the government, and no one noticed.

Deafdog on September 23, 2013 at 5:58 PM

We had a gov’t shutdown in Minnesota a couple years ago. They only affect it has on me is that I couldn’t renew my drivers license. BFD. Bring it on.

takeamericabackin10 on September 23, 2013 at 6:01 PM

CAVE!!!

RED ALERT

http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-money/budget/323989-obama-likely-to-meet-with-congressional-leaders-this-week#ixzz2fkQe6tjd

President Obama is “likely” to meet with congressional leaders this week about funding the government, the White House said Monday.

“I think it’s likely that the president will meet with leaders,” Carney told reporters aboard Air Force One. “I don’t have a time for that or a day for that. But here’s the bottom line: Congress needs to act responsibly in order to ensure that the government does not shut down.”

Told ya. Zero is freaking out. He’s losing big and he knows it.

dogsoldier on September 23, 2013 at 6:01 PM

If Pew has it even then it is substantially in favor of a shut down.

Lonetown on September 23, 2013 at 5:41 PM

Agree; there is no pollster as politically corrupt or evil as Pew.

slickwillie2001 on September 23, 2013 at 6:01 PM

Why “blame”? It’d be a good thing!

Maybe the headline should replace the word “blame” with “credit?”

Deafdog on September 23, 2013 at 6:07 PM

So,..its a wash,even a possible legal Mexican Stand-Off!!


Alrighty then,

************* LET IT BURN **********************!!!

canopfor on September 23, 2013 at 6:09 PM

MeanWhile Harry Reid won’t BOW,..nor Bendus Over………

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., says

‘radicals,’ ‘extremists,’ are threatening government shutdown

if they insists on defunding Obamacare- @thehill
=================================================

Reid says he won’t ‘bow’ to the Tea Party ‘anarchy movement underfoot’
By Ramsey Cox – 09/23/13 02:23 PM ET
************************************

http://thehill.com/blogs/floor-action/senate/323973-reid-says-he-wont-bow-to-the-tea-party-anarchy-movement-underfoot

canopfor on September 23, 2013 at 6:13 PM

Reid Part Deux:
===============

US government funding debate 2013

Sen. Harry Reid, D-Nev., files cloture on the continuing resolution to fund the government, setting up a Wednesday morning vote – @kasie

10 mins ago from twitter.com/kasie by editor
================================================

https://twitter.com/kasie

canopfor on September 23, 2013 at 6:23 PM

Hey Senator Reid, Those tea party anarchists are doing exactly what they said they would do when they ran for congress and were elected as representatives of the people.

birdwatcher on September 23, 2013 at 6:27 PM

Anyone on twitter that can find out about this? Thanks!

I don’t know about any of that, but Cruz did speak on the floor a while ago.

takeamericabackin10 on September 23, 2013 at 5:51 PM

Thank you. I just turned c-span on and they are re-playing today’s
speech.

Yeah he was out there and the local radio gave us some playback.

dogsoldier on September 23, 2013 at 5:56 PM

Thanks. I was on the phone and didn’t get a chance to check.

bluefox on September 23, 2013 at 6:35 PM

Regardless of the polls, especially the polls relating to process like “shutting down the government” that most American’s don’t really understand and have been misinformed about by the MSM and RINO pundits, principled leadership fighting for interests of the majority of American people will win the day in the end. If the American people blame both parties equally—even if they blame Republicans and the tea party most of all in the short term—in the long run it’s those of us fighting for the American people who have the least to fear. And frankly, most of the criticism of the defund strategy is actually criticism of a strawman constructed by progressive D’s and R’s that bears little resemblance to reality. It assumes that Ted Cruz and Mike Lee are putting on a dog and pony show like Boehner and McConnell always do and are playing to lose. The plan that Ted Cruz and Mike Lee has outlined on TV and elsewhere is a winning strategy and much of the RINO pundits criticism is invalid.

FloatingRock on September 23, 2013 at 6:41 PM

FloatingRock on September 23, 2013 at 6:41 PM

The panel on Bret Baier are really against Cruz and twisting his words and trying to infer what Cruz meant instead of actually what he’s said.

A nasty bunch. The State run Media, indeed. All on the same wrong side of Freedom.

bluefox on September 23, 2013 at 6:50 PM

The public are stupid.

Unfortunately, the dems know this and use it while the republicans, see Romney, constantly disappoint the only people who can save them: the true conservatives.

It was all there in the debates. Romney got us fired up by showing Obama for what he is in debate one.

In debates two and three Romney went RINO
and lost crucial support.

I’ll say it again: we true conservatives are the last chance this Republic has.

We must have that leader who fires us up.

Look at The Land Down Under for what we need.

Sherman1864 on September 23, 2013 at 6:52 PM

The panel on Bret Baier are really against Cruz and twisting his words and trying to infer what Cruz meant instead of actually what he’s said.

A nasty bunch. The State run Media, indeed. All on the same wrong side of Freedom.

bluefox on September 23, 2013 at 6:50 PM

Yep; Krauthammer was a real ahole.

slickwillie2001 on September 23, 2013 at 6:57 PM

I have no problem with shutting it down. All of the checks will come on time. I have a feeling that the O administration has polled this and found out that most who get a check from the government will get it whether the government is up and running or not. They have been quite testy this weekend and today. Louder and more obnoxious than most days. Knowledge is power. Shut it down.

BetseyRoss on September 23, 2013 at 6:57 PM

Talk about a deceptive poll.

Everyone likes compromise. But the Democrats are not offering that at all. They demand we just fund their program no compromise what so ever.

We are being played.

Steveangell on September 23, 2013 at 6:59 PM

When Establishment Republicans and their Democrat comrades claim there is no path to victory in the fight to defund Obamacare, they are intentionally muddying the waters. Do not confuse blundering political expedience with winning.

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2013/09/23/Senate-fight-Reid

Worth reading for the various scenarios put forth in what can happen in the Senate. Seems the naysayers aren’t exactly being truthful.

bluefox on September 23, 2013 at 7:01 PM

bluefox on September 23, 2013 at 6:50 PM

Yep; Krauthammer was a real ahole.

slickwillie2001 on September 23, 2013 at 6:57 PM

Yes and that blonde woman whoever she was. Adlibbing. That other guy too. The only ones I knew were Hume, Krauthammer.

bluefox on September 23, 2013 at 7:07 PM

Anyone remember the episode of Seinfeld where George decided to do everything the opposite of what his instincts told him to do? Yeah, the GOP needs some Opposite George time.

29Victor on September 23, 2013 at 7:08 PM

http://thespeechatimeforchoosing.wordpress.com/2013/09/22/gop-elephants-need-to-help-cruz-and-lee-defund-obamacare-call-them-tweet-them-or-contact-them-just-do-it-time-is-of-the-essence/#comment-39564

Another way to contact these R Senators courtesy of C4P commenter.

Facebook & Twitter & email addresses for each. In addition, the contact & email address for each R’s Legislative Director.

I had a terrible time getting thru to the D.C. offices today. Had to start using the District Office #’s.

I don’t use FB or Twitter, so maybe emailing the Legislative Directors would be better.

bluefox on September 23, 2013 at 7:29 PM

This seems a straightforward messaging problem. I bet the Republicans would get A LOT more people on board if they pitched it as “Let’s not fund Obamacare until we fix all these issues that are becoming apparent.” Then we can identify the “fixes” as basically replacing it with as much of a more market-based system as possible. It is pretty clear the public does not want to just blow it up so the big bang approach is wrong. A piecemeal replacement approach would gather majority approval, no doubt.

neko on September 23, 2013 at 7:30 PM

29Victor on September 23, 2013 at 7:08 PM

I don’t recall that, but it sounds like it would work!

bluefox on September 23, 2013 at 7:30 PM

Isn’t Pew a left leaning polling place? So, if they are saying the split is almost even then probably it is more lopsided against the White House.

joecollins on September 23, 2013 at 8:00 PM

…what does the public know?

KOOLAID2 on September 23, 2013 at 11:00 PM