NFL Week 3 open thread

posted at 12:11 pm on September 22, 2013 by Ed Morrissey

Last week, I improved my performance … but the Pittsburgh Steelers didn’t.  They dropped to 0-2 after falling to Cincinnati in an AFC North division game, 20-10.  They’re back home this week against Chicago and the underdog in their second home game.  So far, though, the Bears’ defense and offense are middling despite their 2-0 start, so Pittsburgh has a chance, and their pass defense is good.  Still, the Steeler O ranks near last in passing and dead last in rushing (!), a status they have to remedy, and fast.  I’ll pick against the spread and go with Pittsburgh in a low-scoring contest, 17-13 (8:30 pm ET, NBC).

I went 4-2 last week to get back almost to even for the season, 6-7.  Let’s see what I can do this week:

  • Packers at Bengals (1 pm, Fox) – Cincinnati beat Pittsburgh last week for its first win, but it was a tough slog — and the Pack has a much better offense.  Aaron Rodgers will make the difference this week again, topping the Bengals 33-20.
  • Texans at Ravens (1 pm, CBS) – The Ravens bounced back last week from an opening-night disaster, but their offense is mediocre and their defense not much better.  Ray Rice is probably out, which means their rushing game will get sidelined, and the Houston D is 3rd in the league against the pass. Their offense is third rushing and ninth in passing, too.  Texans over Ravens, 27-17.
  • Browns at Vikings (1 pm, CBS) – This is the Hugh Hewitt vs Chad the Elder game, and Chad is giving Hugh 7 points.  It won’t help.  The Browns’ 4-th ranked rushing defense might contain Adrian Peterson for a while, but they can’t keep him off the field long enough to give their 22nd-ranked passing offense or 29th-ranked rushing offense enough time to outpoint the Vikes.  The Browns have scored 16 points total in two games.  Look for Christian Ponder to taste some success at the Big Marshmallow in Minneapolis with a 24-10 win.
  • Bills at Jets (4:25 pm, CBS) – I’m just picking this to mess with Jazz’ head. The Jets are at home, and their defense has been impressive (6th against the pass, 3rd against the rush) even if their offense hasn’t been (26th and 12th, respectively).  The only thing really working for the Bills is their rushing game (4th), while their rushing D only beats … the Steelers.  Ouch.  This should be a good game, but I’ll go with the Jets in a squeaker, 23-21, maybe on a last-minute field goal.
  • Raiders at Broncos (8:30 pm Monday, ESPN) – This is a great rivalry, but probably won’t be a great game.  Peyton Manning already has nine TD passes and 769 yards, and the Denver O has scored 90 points in its first two games. They have the top-ranked rushing defense (but are nearly last in passing D).  Oakland has the third-worst passing offense and the second-best rushing offense, so that should be an interesting matchup, but the Raiders have scored only 36 points this season.  That would have lost them either game the Broncos won. Broncos win at home easily over the Raiders, 35-24.


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Looks like Ed went with the safe bets this week.

Bold pick of the week:
Richardson puts Indy over the top in a Frisco home game upset.

abobo on September 22, 2013 at 12:23 PM

The Bears played two playoff teams from 2012, including a preseason favorite pick for the Super Bowl, and are 2-0. True, both contests were at home, but the Vikings game wasn’t even really that close — the Bears suffered from a number of rain-caused turnovers and special teams plays that made it closer than it really was.

The Bears are going to kill Pittsburgh. Quit picking with your heart, Ed. ;)

D.GOOCH

DGOOCH on September 22, 2013 at 12:30 PM

…go lions?

KOOLAID2 on September 22, 2013 at 12:53 PM

Weird when I agree with all the picks, but think that the most disputable one is the Steelers. It’s gonna be a long season.

22044 on September 22, 2013 at 1:00 PM

Steelers will be desperate yet will not prevail here. Go Bears!

46blitz on September 22, 2013 at 1:05 PM

This is just Week 3 and the Chiefs are already 3-0.

Go Chiefs.

davidk on September 22, 2013 at 1:05 PM

Heard Donovan McNabb on the wireless this morning, talking about the Steelers’ woes. He said unless they find a running game it will be a loooong season.

Should be interesting to see how the Patriots’ D handles the Bucs. Last week the Bucs shot themselves in the foot as often as possible. And so far seem to be doing so today.

And so far the Saints’ new “Amoeba” defense hasn’t been able to contain Carson Palmer and the Cards. They just scored a TD.

Del Dolemonte on September 22, 2013 at 1:13 PM

…go lions?

KOOLAID2 on September 22, 2013 at 12:53 PM

lots of folks think the dead skins will beat the lions …
I think Suh is going to take RGIII and bend his legs like pretzels
lions over the skins …

conservative tarheel on September 22, 2013 at 1:19 PM

Bengals 14, Packers 0

Come on Green Bay. Pick another week to mail it in!

22044 on September 22, 2013 at 1:22 PM

Ed, can we stop the VIZU pop up ads? Thanks.

bluefox on September 22, 2013 at 1:53 PM

They say “when in Rome, do as the Romans do”, but with their track record, I can’t really support the Panthers.

nobar on September 22, 2013 at 1:58 PM

Halftime: New England 17, Tampa Bay 3. Patriots fans breathing a sigh of relief.

Del Dolemonte on September 22, 2013 at 2:34 PM

The Ohio State Marching Band is the half-time entertainment at the Bengals-Packers game. What a cool way to throw-back to the early days of the NFL.

stukinIL4now on September 22, 2013 at 2:43 PM

Bengals 14, Packers 0

Come on Green Bay. Pick another week to mail it in!

22044 on September 22, 2013 at 1:22 PM

Packers 16, Bengals 14 at halftime. Feeling better now? The PackersD has redeemed itself today.

stukinIL4now on September 22, 2013 at 2:44 PM

Da Bears!!!!

Bitter Clinger on September 22, 2013 at 2:47 PM

Da Bears!!!!

Bitter Clinger on September 22, 2013 at 2:47 PM

Yeah, barely holding serve at home. But I do enjoy that State Farm commercial with Aaron Rodgers and Da’ Superfans.

stukinIL4now on September 22, 2013 at 2:57 PM

Steelers are not very good. Redskins are not very good. Giants are not very good.

Broncos will have another 40+ point game against the orcs. If Bailey plays the spread will be beaten. Maybe even without him.

Daikokuco on September 22, 2013 at 3:00 PM

Packers 16, Bengals 14 at halftime. Feeling better now? The PackersD has redeemed itself today.

stukinIL4now on September 22, 2013 at 2:44 PM

Nice redemption, for sure. :)

22044 on September 22, 2013 at 3:05 PM

Ed will never bet against Pittsburgh. he can’t help it.

gerrym51 on September 22, 2013 at 3:05 PM

22044 on September 22, 2013 at 3:05 PM

Finley, Starks and Matthews out–that early bye next week starting to look like a good idea for the Packers. And whoa, where’s Jonathan Franklin been hiding?

stukinIL4now on September 22, 2013 at 3:10 PM

Packers 30, Bengals 14

30 unanswered points for the Packers.

stukinIL4now on September 22, 2013 at 3:11 PM

stukinIL4now: Wins are wins, whether by 1 or 51.

Bitter Clinger on September 22, 2013 at 3:13 PM

The Ravens bounced back last week from an opening-night disaster, but their offense is mediocre and their defense not much better.

I just love the fact that ED MORRISSEY, hates the Ravens. It’s so much more fun watching them win ANOTHER SUPERBOWL. Ravens 24-9 over Houston, Hooraa!!!

WV. Paul on September 22, 2013 at 3:16 PM

Not related to any of the picks, but the Giants will be 0-4. They’re losing 31-0 to the Panthers and they play the Chiefs next week in Kansas City.

22044 on September 22, 2013 at 3:27 PM

stukinIL4now: Wins are wins, whether by 1 or 51.

Bitter Clinger on September 22, 2013 at 3:13 PM

…and until they’re not wins.

stukinIL4now on September 22, 2013 at 3:42 PM

Well, I spoke way too soon-the Saints’ new “Amoeba Defense” has completely shut out Arizona since the 9:51 mark of the first quarter. NO is routing the Cards with just over 4 minutes to go in the game, 31-7.

And the Patriots “only” scored 23 points, but that was 20 more than they needed. Final score 23-3 over Tampa Bay. You Bucs fans are in for a long season.

Del Dolemonte on September 22, 2013 at 4:01 PM

Looks like ed might be 0-3 on the first 3 picks today. Cincy has come back 34-30, Ravens have kicked azz 27-9, and the Browns are only back by 3 points, 24-27, with 2 min. left.

WV. Paul on September 22, 2013 at 4:08 PM

Packers certainly missing Clay Matthews in the second half today. But 13 more still to go.

stukinIL4now on September 22, 2013 at 4:19 PM

Looks like the Raiders, stand a good chance today against the Broncos. Since ed has picked their rivals, I think I should make a bet on Oakland, with the spread of course. Maybe Manning falls down or something. So far all the picks going the other way today.

WV. Paul on September 22, 2013 at 4:27 PM

WV. Paul on September 22, 2013 at 4:27 PM

The EM kiss of death strikes again!!! At least Drew Carey is having a good day, lol.

abobo on September 22, 2013 at 4:31 PM

The EM kiss of death strikes again!!! At least Drew Carey is having a good day, lol.

Why, who did Drew Carey pick today? /sarc

WV. Paul on September 22, 2013 at 4:38 PM

crap -
a fumble and an interception killed the Pack …
1-2 … not a happy camper ….

conservative tarheel on September 22, 2013 at 4:40 PM

Ed so far—not doing so well.

CW on September 22, 2013 at 4:41 PM

Did we lose? Gophers are 4-0 though :)

gophergirl on September 22, 2013 at 4:47 PM

We did – man the Vikings are terrible.

gophergirl on September 22, 2013 at 4:48 PM

And the Patriots “only” scored 23 points, but that was 20 more than they needed. Final score 23-3 over Tampa Bay. You Bucs fans are in for a long season.

Del Dolemonte on September 22, 2013 at 4:01 PM

No kidding. And the Jets look like they are become NYC’s “best” football team.

Daikokuco on September 22, 2013 at 4:48 PM

conservative tarheel on September 22, 2013 at 4:40 PM

Bengals === Bungles === Bengals :/

How do you think we felt watching that game?!?!?!?

CPT. Charles on September 22, 2013 at 5:04 PM

the browns have shown the way to win is trade a starter away. who will they trade next week.

gerrym51 on September 22, 2013 at 5:29 PM

And the Patriots “only” scored 23 points, but that was 20 more than they needed. Final score 23-3 over Tampa Bay. You Bucs fans are in for a long season.

Del Dolemonte on September 22, 2013 at 4:01 PM

No kidding. And the Jets look like they are become NYC’s “best” football team.

Daikokuco on September 22, 2013 at 4:48 PM

If anyone can turn the Giants around, Coughlin can. But if they lose a couple more it will be too late.

BTW my math was bad, the Patriots only needed 6 points to beat TB. So they got 17 more than they needed.

Still shaking my head over that Saints defensive effort. They gave up the only Arizona TD very early in the game (9:51 of the first!), then shut out the Cardinals the rest of the way.

Del Dolemonte on September 22, 2013 at 5:36 PM

….finally the lions win one from the politically incorrect team!

KOOLAID2 on September 22, 2013 at 5:37 PM

I’ll pick against the spread and go with Pittsburgh in a low-scoring contest, 17-13

3 picks against AFC North teams and EM is 0-3 and his 1 pick for (Stealers), will fall to the Bears. Stop picking AFC north teams Ed, your bias in your picks is affecting your stats avg.

WV. Paul on September 22, 2013 at 5:54 PM

Ed, this isn’t Katy Perry’s Bengals. You’re never going to have much of a record unless you steer clear of predicting them to lose. You are just too biased for Sh!tzburg.

Who Dey!

HellCat on September 22, 2013 at 6:35 PM

Looks like the Colts are gonna beat the Niners, if anyone else cares.

esr1951 on September 22, 2013 at 7:04 PM

Watch out Patriots, the Fish go to 3-0 as they come from behind to knock off the Falcons. Saints fans love that latter part.

Del Dolemonte on September 22, 2013 at 7:04 PM

Watch out Patriots, the Fish go to 3-0 as they come from behind to knock off the Falcons. Saints fans love that latter part.

Del Dolemonte on September 22, 2013 at 7:04 PM

nope fish lost …. 2-1 …..

conservative tarheel on September 22, 2013 at 8:07 PM

Looks like the Colts are gonna beat the Niners, if anyone else cares.

esr1951 on September 22, 2013 at 7:04 PM

…what has happened to the 49er’s?
Andrew Luck beat his college coach!

KOOLAID2 on September 22, 2013 at 8:10 PM

There’s a defense in Big D. Go Cowboys!!

dddave on September 22, 2013 at 8:11 PM

nope fish lost …. 2-1 …..

conservative tarheel on September 22, 2013 at 8:07 PM

What game did you watch? Dolphins 27-23 over the Falcons. 3-0 so far, look out Patriots, there’s a new marshal in town.

WV. Paul on September 22, 2013 at 8:27 PM

Bears off to a good start!! Da Bears!!

Bitter Clinger on September 22, 2013 at 8:55 PM

…Pittsburg doesn’t look good!

KOOLAID2 on September 22, 2013 at 9:01 PM

Andrew Luck beat his college coach!

KOOLAID2 on September 22, 2013 at 8:10 PM

GO STANFORD!!!

John the Libertarian on September 22, 2013 at 9:04 PM

Pittsburgh has no offense, they’ll be lucky to score 10 points!

WV. Paul on September 22, 2013 at 9:13 PM

Watch out Patriots, the Fish go to 3-0 as they come from behind to knock off the Falcons. Saints fans love that latter part.

Del Dolemonte on September 22, 2013 at 7:04 PM

nope fish lost …. 2-1 …..

conservative tarheel on September 22, 2013 at 8:07 PM

Whatever you say…

Tannehill leads Dolphins past Falcons 27-23

Del Dolemonte on September 22, 2013 at 9:20 PM

conservative tarheel on September 22, 2013 at 8:07 PM

uh Dolphins are 3-0

gerrym51 on September 22, 2013 at 9:35 PM

24-3. Looks like the Steelers’ season is close to over already. :)

WannabeAnglican on September 22, 2013 at 9:35 PM

24-3. Looks like the Steelers’ season is close to over already. :)

WannabeAnglican on September 22, 2013 at 9:35 PM

I think everyone, except EM, agrees with you. Pitt just got their 10 points, Big Ben can go back to sleep now. 27-10 Chicago

WV. Paul on September 22, 2013 at 9:46 PM

My mistake, 24-10 Chi

WV. Paul on September 22, 2013 at 9:48 PM

sorry … looked at the wrong score …. mea culp…..
it was the tears in my eyes from my pack losing ….

conservative tarheel on September 22, 2013 at 10:22 PM

The EM kiss of death strikes again!!! At least Drew Carey is having a good day, lol.

abobo on September 22, 2013 at 4:31 PM

Ed’s not having a good day, 1-4. All 4 misses coming from AFC North teams As someone once said:

Da Bears!!!!

Bitter Clinger on September 22, 2013 at 2:47 PM

WV. Paul on September 22, 2013 at 11:44 PM

Bears kick the Steelers’ butts.

Jaibones on September 22, 2013 at 11:57 PM

Ed, you only made two wrong picks on the Bears / Steelers game:

1. That it would be a low scoring game

2. That the Steelers would win

Sorry, dude. But I’m wearing my #34 Payton jersey again today!

psrch on September 23, 2013 at 9:01 AM

If anybody is interested, in my own non-scientific poll done at Costco yesterday, many “fans” (100% in fact) believe that the Chargers are paid to search for ways to lose….

Vntnrse on September 23, 2013 at 12:07 PM

Best Conference records after 3 games:

NFC

New Orleans 3-0

Seattle 2-0

Dallas 2-0

Detroit 2-1

AFC

New England 2-0

Miami 2-0

Baltimore 2-1

Tennessee 2-1

Houston 2-1

Del Dolemonte on September 23, 2013 at 2:34 PM

Wearing my Manning jersey again tonight – Go Broncos!!
Hopefully 3-0 after tonight.

dentarthurdent on September 23, 2013 at 4:38 PM