ADP estimates 176K new private-sector jobs in August

posted at 8:41 am on September 5, 2013 by Ed Morrissey

Tomorrow we will see the August jobs report from the BLS, so today is Tea-Leaves Reading Day.  The big leading indicator comes from ADP, the payroll-processing giant, which estimates that the US economy added 176,000 jobs in the private sector last month.  That’s a slight miss on expectations, and a drop from the previous month’s ADP report:

Private sector employment increased by 176,000 jobs from July to August, according to the August ADP National Employment Report® . Broadly distributed to the public each month, free of charge, the ADP National Employment Report is produced by ADP® , a leading global provider of Human Capital Management (HCM) solutions, in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonallyadjusted basis. July’s job gain was revised down slightly from 200,000 to 198,000.

This is basically a mid-range report in the context of the past year, as ADP’s chart shows:

adp-jobs-year

CNBC notes that the manufacturing sector got left in the cold last month:

The private sector added 176,000 jobs in August, about in-line with estimates and indicative that the employment picture continues to notch slow but steady gains.

Almost all of the jobs came from the service sector, which added 165,000 positions. …

Economists expected ADP to report private jobs growth of 180,000[.]

Basically, this is job growth at just above maintenance levels, as we have seen for the last four years of so-called recovery.  The US economy has to add about 150,000 jobs per month net in order to keep up with population growth.  It would take us another decade at this rate to put all of the sidelined workers back in jobs. And let’s not forget that ADP has a track record of overshooting the BLS report, although it has begun to track BLS a bit better over the last couple of years.

What will be the job-growth number tomorrow?  Given the big miss on durable goods in July, I’ll guess at 155K and a 7.4% unemployment rate.  Take your best guess in the poll below:


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More stagnation. And how many of these were full-time gigs?

Doughboy on September 5, 2013 at 8:43 AM

I’ll go +158K, 7.3% U-3 as even more Heroes of the Election stop looking for work.

Looking ahead to the September jobs report, I’ll go negative on that because the artificial inflation of the July (which will be revised downward) and August jobs numbers due to auto plants not shutting down on the reference weeks catches up with an artificial deflation of the September jobs numbers.

Steve Eggleston on September 5, 2013 at 8:46 AM

The odd thing is initial jobless claims have been pretty much holding steady in the 330K-345K range the last couple months, with a fresh seasoned low of 323K this past week. I suppose I should check ZeroHedge for the holes in that number.

Steve Eggleston on September 5, 2013 at 8:48 AM

Numbers mean nothing on this economy.

Out here in Possum Holler, flyover country we see it everyday. Co-workers that are concerned about what direction the country is headed. They don’t trust the numbers because the government tells us “there is no inflation” and that’s true…..if you don’t count food and energy (which is what most people have to deal with every single day).

People have just checked out paying attention to what goes on in D.C. and the gop has telegraphed repeatedly that they don’t care what the American people say. The gop is just going to continue to enable the rapid expansion of the Federal government. So why pay attention? Wages are stagnant, raises are tiny for most and prices keep going up.

Welcome to the economy of the DOTUS.

PappyD61 on September 5, 2013 at 8:49 AM

I’m sure the 4000 high-tech Cisco employees laid off will be thrilled.

viking01 on September 5, 2013 at 8:50 AM

Oh! We’ll get some mediocre number and the administration is going to sell it as slow but steady recovery. I wonder what all those U6 people feel about the fact that their government doesn’t give a crap about them.

Happy Nomad on September 5, 2013 at 8:52 AM

More stagnation. And how many of these were full-time gigs?

Doughboy on September 5, 2013 at 8:43 AM

Doesn’t matter. Asst. “manager” for french fries at a fast food place or neurosugeon…. All the same to Obama and he’ll take credit for the creation of either.

Happy Nomad on September 5, 2013 at 8:54 AM

One more thing – the growth of part-time workers (no, not jobs; the BLS doesn’t track that) will once again be the vast majority (at a minimum) of the growth in the number of workers.

Steve Eggleston on September 5, 2013 at 8:55 AM

Doesn’t matter. Asst. “manager” for french fries at a fast food place or neurosugeon…. All the same to Obama and he’ll take credit for the creation of either.

Happy Nomad on September 5, 2013 at 8:54 AM

After all, once the Sovietization of the ObamiNation is complete, they’ll be paid the same just like they were in the Soviet Union.

Steve Eggleston on September 5, 2013 at 8:56 AM

Meanwhile, in Euro news, they’re expecting 2nd-half 2013 Eurozone GDP to come at -0.4% (not annualized), which is better than the -0.6% (again not annualized) they previously thought.

Steve Eggleston on September 5, 2013 at 9:01 AM

McDonald’s probably had to hire due the the strikes … 165K

Karmi on September 5, 2013 at 9:05 AM

Tom Blumer covered the ADP conference call, and there were some gems. I’ll send you over there to catch them; he deserves the hits.

Steve Eggleston on September 5, 2013 at 9:05 AM

Almost all of the jobs came from the service sector, which added 165,000 positions. …

Would you like fries with that?

Chris of Rights on September 5, 2013 at 9:10 AM

McDonald’s probably had to hire due the the strikes … 165K

Karmi on September 5, 2013 at 9:05 AM

Not to mention to supply the increasing welfare queens rolls whom consider Mickey-D’s to be their special catering service for da keeyids when there’s Montel and Jerry Springer to watch instead of wasting their valuable time in the kitchen.

viking01 on September 5, 2013 at 9:14 AM

Lately part-time jobs have outnumbered full-time jobs created by 4 to 1. Whatever they report, it will be inflated by the number of part-time jobs.

iurockhead on September 5, 2013 at 9:16 AM

I’m in the 200k+ range, this is the Obama Administration after all, and with the Syria mess, he needs some kind of “good” news to distract from his incompetence, so the numbers will be fudged and then magically revised downward next month.

Rogue on September 5, 2013 at 9:20 AM

Sent this on the wrong thread…

Across the scroll on CNBC – one of the Fed Reserve honchos is expecting elevated unemployment for a number of years and expressed shock that the markets that have become dependent on QE-Forever would react violently negative to talk that the Fed would scale back QE-Forever.

Steve Eggleston on September 5, 2013 at 9:22 AM

Steve Eggleston on September 5, 2013 at 9:23 AM

Five years into Obama’s utopia and the sucky U.S. economy continues to suck.

Somehow, this has to be Bush’s fault.

AZCoyote on September 5, 2013 at 9:24 AM

Somehow, this has to be Bush’s fault.

AZCoyote on September 5, 2013 at 9:24 AM

Just ask James Carville.

Steve Eggleston on September 5, 2013 at 9:27 AM

I fully expect a flat line job growth numbers, but thanks to Syria, the unemployment numbers will magically drop to 6.9%.

Mo_mac on September 5, 2013 at 9:34 AM

Gallup has your monthly dose of cold water with their 4-week seasonally-unadjusted rolling averages:

- Unemployment rate (analogous to the U-3 rate) on 8/17 (the end of the reference week) – 8.6%, +0.7 points from the end of the July reference week (7/13), the highest in the short 4-year history of Gallup unemployment surveys. Of course, last year, the July-to-August reference week Gallup change was +0.4 points, when the BLS said it was -0.4 points on both the 16+ group that is the headline and the 18+ group Gallup surveys.

- Underemployment (analogous to the U-6 rate) on 8/17 – 17.6%, +0.4 points from 7/13. Historically, it has been about 2 points above the BLS U-6 rate, though the spread has been increasing over the last 12 months.

- Employment/population ratio on 8/17, 43.8%, -1.1 points from 7/13. Gallup does not use the “civilian non-institution” version of population, so it has always been significantly lower than the BLS equivalent.

Steve Eggleston on September 5, 2013 at 9:56 AM

To clarify, I should have said “the highest increase in the short 4-year history of Gallup unemployment surveys” above.

Steve Eggleston on September 5, 2013 at 9:57 AM

The ISM indices for August:

- Manufacturing – 55.7 (up just a tick from July’s 55.6)
- Service – 58.6 (up from July’s 54.5)

Hooray for McDonald’s!

Steve Eggleston on September 5, 2013 at 10:03 AM

I’m sure about 175,000 of them are part time jobs.

gsherin on September 5, 2013 at 10:05 AM

Keep voting democrat!

Murphy9 on September 5, 2013 at 10:29 AM

If you’re near a TV with CNBC right now, turn it on because Rick Santelli is ripping government stats.

Steve Eggleston on September 5, 2013 at 10:51 AM

They should be required to count a part-time job as half a job.

PattyJ on September 5, 2013 at 10:54 AM

Slow and steady. It gives a new definition to slow. Molasses moves faster in the winter time than this economy. Maybe they could hire some inch worms to speed it up.

chemman on September 5, 2013 at 11:11 AM

Across the scroll on CNBC – one of the Fed Reserve honchos is expecting elevated unemployment for a number of years and expressed shock that the markets that have become dependent on QE-Forever would react violently negative to talk that the Fed would scale back QE-Forever.

These are the same idiots who are apparently optimistic enough about housing to think the Bernanke-induced interest rate swings over the summer are not affecting home purchases. Meanwhile, looks like we’re going to lose out on the home we put a contract on this spring, as others have who were trying to purchase in our neighborhood. We figured a rate swing of 150 basis points and used the high number to calculate what we could afford, just to give ourselves plenty of cushion. But it still wasn’t enough.

Back to apartment hunting, I guess.

mrsknightley on September 5, 2013 at 11:16 AM