Rasmussen poll of Republican voters: Christie 21, Rubio 18, Jeb Bush 16

posted at 6:31 pm on August 7, 2013 by Allahpundit

One word, my friends: RINOgeddon.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that Christie earns 21% support when Republican voters are asked whom they would vote for if the party’s primary in their state were held today. Florida Senator Marco Rubio runs a close second with 18% of the GOP vote, followed by former Florida Governor Jeb Bush at 16% and Kentucky Senator Rand Paul with 15% of the vote.

Congressman Paul Ryan, the unsuccessful Republican vice presidential candidate in 2012, picks up 13% of the Republican vote, with Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker dead last at six percent (6%). Just three percent (3%) prefer another candidate, and eight percent (8%) are undecided.

Good news for Christie-haters: He’s also leading the field — by double digits — when Republicans are asked who they’d least like to see win the nomination. (His new nemesis, Rand Paul, is a distant second.) This is why I keep thinking that, for all the slobber over his “electability,” he might be so widely and deeply disliked by a small but significant minority of righties that they end up staying home if he’s nominee and costing him the election. To be “electable” with a few percentage points’ worth of conservatives sitting out, he’d have to offset them by grabbing more centrist Democrats than expected from the Democratic nominee. How likely is that if Hillary’s the pick and Bill Clinton’s out there every day for her on the trail? Every candidate tacks toward the center after he’s nominated, but Christie would tack further than most — not just because he’s inclined to, but because he might have to in order to make up those lost conservative votes.

It’s time (already!) to stop thinking about national polls for 2016, though, and to start thinking in terms of Iowa and New Hampshire. They’re the springboards to national success, after all; if a top-flight candidate can’t play in either of them, for whatever strange reason, they won’t have any traction for South Carolina and Florida. Right, Marco Rubio?

A new Granite State Poll conducted for WMUR-TV shows Rubio, who was tied with Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) for the lead in an April poll by the same pollster at 15 percent, now garners the support of just 6 percent of New Hampshire GOP primary voters, placing fifth.

Rubio’s favorable rating has also taken a hit. While in April he was viewed favorably by 59 percent and unfavorably by 8 percent, his favorable-unfavorable split is now 47-14.

The poll’s new leader is New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, at 21 percent. He is followed by Paul at 16 percent, former Florida governor Jeb Bush at 10 percent, Rep. Paul Ryan (Wis.) at 8 percent and Rubio at 6 percent.

Rubio’s a special case in that he’s a Florida native and could, in theory, win there even if he loses the first three major primaries, but imagine how many “Rubio disappoints again” stories will be written before then. New Hampshire is going to be even tougher than usual next time too thanks to Christie’s and Paul’s likely candidacies: Each of them, in very different ways, seems better suited to NH’s maverick-y sensibility than Rubio does. (New Hampshire will, I think, end up as ground zero for the Christie/Paul debate on national security and civil liberties.) Iowa is Rubio’s best bet and Iowa famously has a lot of social conservatives, which is why you’re seeing him sponsor that Senate abortion bill and why he made such a stink about gay marriage during the immigration debate instead of the more important stuff like, say, amnesty.

His best bet at an early primary win, then, might be to go full social con and hope that (a) caucusgoers decide that Santorum’s a lost cause this time and (b) Rand Paul somehow flames out, which is difficult to imagine given that Ron’s supporters nearly carried him to victory there last time. In fact, as strange as this sounds, I’d argue that the ostensibly fringy Paul is the guy best positioned right now to sweep Iowa and New Hampshire. He’s got the Paulites in Iowa behind him and he’s been working to woo social conservatives; he also doesn’t have Rubio’s vulnerability on immigration in Steve King country. His foreign policy views and libertarian take on spending will make him competitive in New Hampshire too, especially if he gets some momentum from winning Iowa. If he wins one or, especially, both, Beltway Republicans will shift immediately into “stop Paul” panic mode and someone — Christie, Walker, maybe Rubio — will become the designated anti-Paul establishment favorite for South Carolina and Florida. Makes me wonder if, oddly enough, that’s not Rubio’s best bet at this point. Hope Rand looks strong early and then wait for the non-libertarian segments of the party to run fleeing to him in terror as a guy who might be able to unite the center and right in overcoming Paul.

One other fun fact from the Rasmussen poll: Among Democrats, Christie is the guy they’d most like to see win the GOP nomination — and Jeb Bush, by far, is who they’d least like to see win. Shouldn’t it be the opposite? If you’re a Dem, you’d love to run against a guy named Bush, especially if you’re carrying the dynastic liability of nominating someone named Clinton. Or do Democrats really think Jeb would be that formidable in the general?


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Over

Bmore on August 8, 2013 at 9:18 AM

Noise!

tomshup on August 8, 2013 at 9:23 AM

It’s time (already!) to stop thinking about national polls for 2016 …

Take your own advice and STOP BLOGGGING about them for Pete’s sake.

Carnac on August 8, 2013 at 9:32 AM

But if the powers that succeed at foisting a Christie/Rubio/Bush nomination on me, I will not be voting for President.

so what you are really saying is: “if Republican primary voters decide to select with their millions of votes someone I don’t support- I am going to hope that Hillary wins”

you socons and isolationist Paulista nuts are not only hypocritical but illogical.

you claim to support voting and individual rights- then when a MAJORITY of republican voters makes their decision- you whine like babies and take your toys and run home wailing.

sorry to tell you something- but 65 socons on Hot Air are hardly representative of a country of 313 Million Americans.

one would have thought that the last 5 years would have taught you that.

AirForceCane on August 8, 2013 at 9:48 AM

AirForceCane on August 8, 2013 at 9:48 AM

The greatest US President in this generation, Ronald Wilson Reagan was what you ridicuously describe as a socon.

78% of Americans proclaim Christ as their Personal Savior.

Unfortunately for you, and bitter folks like you, we don’t leave our Christianity at the church door on Sunday.

It sure stinks to be you. Deal with it.

kingsjester on August 8, 2013 at 9:57 AM

so what you are really saying is: “if Republican primary voters decide to select with their millions of votes someone I don’t support- I am going to hope that Hillary wins”

you socons and isolationist Paulista nuts are not only hypocritical but illogical.

you claim to support voting and individual rights- then when a MAJORITY of republican voters makes their decision- you whine like babies and take your toys and run home wailing.

sorry to tell you something- but 65 socons on Hot Air are hardly representative of a country of 313 Million Americans.

one would have thought that the last 5 years would have taught you that.

AirForceCane on August 8, 2013 at 9:48 AM

I too have decided that if the GOP elects a RINO I will not place a vote for POTUS. I’ve watched their track record of Ford, GHWB, Dole, GWB, McCain, Romney. I’ve had enough. It has nothing to do with being “hypocritical” or “illogical”. If you think those like me are whining then it simply means you refuse to see the big picture.

You should understand millions did this in last election. Millions reached there boiling point sooner than I. This is not just “65 socons on Hot Air” This is a trend that the GOP better understand or else.

FYI: This will be my only time I’ve ever considered not placing a POTUS vote.

Conservative4Ever on August 8, 2013 at 10:07 AM

One word, my friends: RINOgeddon. -AllahPundit

This poll is an MSM wishlist of candidates that will run. Do not take this seriously, most of the names you and I are looking for are not in the poll. the pollsters and the big media had a lot to do to get Rubio out front of bad messages on immigration to run his little sorry bottled water drinking asp into the ground, then they have to measure their effect with a poll.

Where are the polls running down the liberal candidates that might run for president? They only put in Mrs. Clinton’s name.

The narrative is, lots of losers running for the GOP nomination but the democrats are ALL behind Hillary.

I can’t wait until Duval Patrick pushes himself in on the scene. Don’t know about him, we call him Mini Me, the governor of MA. He is David Axelrods prototype for Obama, but shorter, and more interested in money for himself than Barry, more like Michelle – likes nice things, doesn’t work much, says foolish things like: “911 was a failure of human understanding.” This is Duval’s old campaign ad. He too is from the tenements of Chicago…well, the Obama’s house cost a million thanks to Tony Rezko, but it fits.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J-4cRvuTDU4

Fleuries on August 8, 2013 at 10:14 AM

Bad poll (very likely) or not, unless the Republicans nominate a Reaganite conservative, Republicans will lose again in 2016.

Phil Byler on August 8, 2013 at 11:06 AM

Cruz baby Cruz! Funny how they didn’t have him in this poll.

One other fun fact from the Rasmussen poll: Among Democrats, Christie is the guy they’d most like to see win the GOP nomination

Just another reason to dislike the rotund one from NJ.

neyney on August 8, 2013 at 11:11 AM

I’m not a Republican. I’m a fiscal conservative. I drew a line in the sand in 2008 because of spendthrift Bush along with many others. I didn’t vote for McCain even though I liked Palin (she wasn’t on the top of the ticket) and I didn’t vote for “severe conservative” Romney/”Big Government” Ryan.

I will NOT stay home if inept idiot with “NO EXECUTIVE EXPERIENCE” Rubio is the nominee. I WILL vote for the Democrat.

Rubio votes like a Democrat anyway. His votes to confirm corruptocrat Jack Lew, Hagel, and Hanoi John were the dead give away that he votes the way the Bush Mafia tells him to vote and that he is not his own man. His pushing Jeb’s Shamnesty agenda was a foregone conclusion. I also am not buying that Rubio gives a damn about defunding Dumb-Øcare. It’s a pathetic pandering attempt to get back into the good graces of conservatives. If Rubio wasn’t on life support he would be telling us that defunding is not the smart thing to do, because that’s what Jeb wants him to say. Rubio is dead to me and many other Floridians. What good is having a candidate who will not win the state?

I also am fed up with corrupt political consultant prostitutes like Ed Gillespie etal. who have no interest in winning. I want a total divorce from these vile parasitic creatures therefore I can’t see me ever voting GOP until these corruptocrats are driven from having any influence on control of the party.

I’m immune to their name calling of purist, hobbit, wacko bird etc. or their propaganda that Rubio votes conservative 93% of the time. The lesser of 2 evil excuse is a “no go.” I’m fed up with the fact that the GOP elites would rather fight conservatives than their opponent. I’m treating the GOP the way they treat me.

The only thing that will save the GOP is for a total Bush Mafia purge. So, I’m only voting for the conservative. If a RINO wins the primary I’ll vote Democrat in the general. That’s the fastest way to take back control of the party that Reagan built. When the GOP sees only conservatives no matter how small the number in DC fighting against the opposition they will get the picture.

It’s time to defund the “District of Corruption” and send the “corporate welfare” whores home. Sorry, but it is the adult thing to do. Washington has an addiction and it is time to cut them off from their fix. Cast in concrete, immune to name calling insults.

Many of us knew that it would take several election cycles before we were able to take the party back. It is evident to the dullest 4 years old child that the reason the GOP is losing is because they are bleeding conservatives. But the GOP doubles down and hires their political consultant whores to concoct propaganda that they are losing because they don’t have the Latino vote and are not pursuing Jeb’s agenda.

The corrupt Age of “corporate welfare” Bush is O.V.E.R. Until the GOP accepts that fact they will never win an election again. There are far too many disenfranchised voters who are desperately looking for a home. It’s time to offer them solace from the corrupt “Ruling Class” corrupt crony capitalists in both parties that are ruining this country. There is no more Democrat verses Republican. There is only corrupt Ruling Class verses We the People.”

Jayrae on August 8, 2013 at 11:15 AM

The poll sought to find the least objectionable RINO. Now how about a poll with Cruz, Paul, Mike Lee, Sarah Palin, etc. in it?

Oink on August 8, 2013 at 11:24 AM

Yeechhhh.

If Christie wins the nomination, I’m voting Libertarian.

Same goes if it’s Rubio, Bush, Santorum, Huckabee, or any other Big Government candidate. Some of these guys are Big Government Socons, and some are just Big Government. No effing thanks.

I’d enthusiastically vote for Cruz, Perry, or even Paul. And I’d probably vote for Jindal or Walker, as well.

But no way in hell I’ll vote Big Government this time around…and if that means Hillary wins the White House that’s the fault of “likely Republican primary voters,” not mine.

DRayRaven on August 8, 2013 at 11:24 AM

Sure, McCain and Romney worked so well for us that naturally we should pick Christie. I know a third party would spell doom for conservatives but at least the two top lib candidates would court our vote somewhat, right now the GOP doesn’t give a damn about us.

Rancher on August 8, 2013 at 11:45 AM

Republican Party…wake up…the Conservatives are not coming to the voting booths this time. Many stayed home with Romney…this time, with these candidates…NOPE..No way.

Carolynr on August 8, 2013 at 11:51 AM

Looks like I am not voting republican next election.

Sterling Holobyte on August 8, 2013 at 12:20 PM

If Christie is the nominee, I’m changing parties. And to quote Reagan, “the party left me”.

ErnstBlofeld on August 8, 2013 at 1:11 PM

It sure stinks to be you. Deal with it.

kingsjester on August 8, 2013 at 9:57 AM

Of all the quotes of Christ on the cross, that’s the one I remember most.

I have it circled in red in my bible.

Difficultas_Est_Imperium on August 8, 2013 at 1:12 PM

Difficultas_Est_Imperium on August 8, 2013 at 1:12 PM

Been reading 1st Babylonians again, eh?

kingsjester on August 8, 2013 at 1:25 PM

Wait — what about Nelson Rockefeller????

What a great reason to leave the GOP.

Maybe just call it the OP — it sure is no longer Grand.

fred5678 on August 8, 2013 at 2:45 PM

Christie could beat Hillary. Have you seen the Christiecrat ad? Moderate Democrats are going to be all over him.

GW_SS-Delta on August 8, 2013 at 4:21 PM

Jayrae on August 8, 2013 at 11:15 AM

I think that says what many Conservatives are planning. Vote them out. That is the only message they will understand!

bluefox on August 8, 2013 at 8:06 PM

I’m gonna go ahead and sound like so many on our side in the 2012 election in regard to Romney: I won’t vote for that fat f*ck–NO MATTER WHAT. Suck it, Christie.

RedCrow on August 9, 2013 at 1:04 AM

“Sitting out”? Not me…not ever. Far too much blood has been shed throughout our nation’s history, so we all can continue to have rights like the vote. I didn’t get my favorite in ’08 or ’12…and even when 2016 comes around, chances are I’ll be personally disappointed in GOP nominee…but I’m not going to throw away my vote and/or help the Democrats.

I don’t care who each American votes for…but I simply can’t respect anyone who stays home on election day for what amounts to a pouting fit over the candidate.

JetBoy on August 7, 2013 at 6:56 PM

I’d stick a needle in my eye before ever voting for Fatty McButterpants.

Aplombed on August 7, 2013 at 7:02 PM

Release the PALIN!!!!!

KCB on August 7, 2013 at 7:35 PM

Sarah Palin
Ted Cruz
Jim Demint
Jeff Sessions
Mike Lee
Mark Levin
Louie Gomert
Michele Bachmann
Steve King

I know I’m forgetting lots of possibilities. I just can’t think of them.

ncjetsfan on August 7, 2013 at 7:41 PM

No to your entire list.

Freshman senators, ex-senators, no name house members, talk show hosts, and nutjobs … oh my!

Timin203 on August 7, 2013 at 7:43 PM

As opposed to boring capitulators. Tough call.

Cindy Munford on August 7, 2013 at 7:48 PM

Sorry if I was unclear… I’m not talking about their conservative credentials, I’m speaking of electoral chances and governing abilities.

I wish I had a better candidate to suggest, but I do not want to see a repeat of the circus that was the ’12 primary season and I think we should really try to avoid that.

Maybe we should not let the big doners and establishment types select the potential candidates?

Timin203 on August 7, 2013 at 7:51 PM

So you folks keep doing the same thing over and over again while expecting different results, and I’ll stop and say hi next time I visit a psych ward.

xblade on August 7, 2013 at 8:11 PM

If Christie is the nominee, I’m changing parties. And to quote Reagan, “the party left me”.

ErnstBlofeld on August 8, 2013 at 1:11 PM

And this pretty much recaps it all at this point……….

athenadelphi on August 9, 2013 at 2:00 AM

Here is the fool you fools would support.

Bmore on August 9, 2013 at 8:21 AM

I don’t care who each American votes for…but I simply can’t respect anyone who stays home on election day for what amounts to a pouting fit over the candidate.

JetBoy on August 7, 2013 at 6:56 PM

By voting for the “lesser of two evils” you are only ensuring that America dies a slow agonizing death.

Conservatives have been voting for the “lesser” of evils since after Reagan – and it’s only resulted in the GOP growing government … slightly less than Dims … but fast enough to kill us off eventually.

You have a choice between slow death and fast death. If that’s my only two choices then I’ll take the quick death please. That’s why I voted for Obama.

And if Christie is the nom in 2016 I’ll pull that lever for Hillary.

If Rand Paul is the nominee – I’ll vote GOP. Sarah Palin – I’ll vote GOP. Cruz? I’ll vote for him. A real conservative – I’ll vote for … but I”m tired of this “lesser of two evil” sh1t that amounts to no more than political masturbat1on.

HondaV65 on August 9, 2013 at 6:45 PM

If we don’t get a real conservative–and let me be clear, Paul Ryan is NOT a conservative in my eyes–then I will not vote Republican in the general election, but will vote for the Constitution Party candidate and pray without ceasing for Texas to secede. Romney of Romneycare was the absolute last straw, and my vote will never again go to a candidate that I do not fully trust. The GOP had better realize darned soon that we are fed the hell up with them pushing their weak sissy-a ssed Leftist-wannabe politicians. Give me a true statesman, one worthy of my admiration and my vote, or give me secession, a civil war, and a fight to forever rid America of socialists.

TXJenny on August 10, 2013 at 10:49 PM

August 7th, 2013: the day the Republican Party lost the 2016 Presidential contest.

I really, really hope that turns out not to be the case.

Cylor on August 11, 2013 at 11:36 PM

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