ADP: 188K jobs added in June

posted at 9:41 am on July 3, 2013 by Ed Morrissey

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will report on job creation and unemployment on Friday, but as usual we have a couple of leading indicators to hint at what may come.  ADP released its June employment report, an erratic predictor of the BLS data, which showed 188,000 private-sector jobs added in June:

Private sector employment increased by 188,000 jobs from May to June, according to the June ADP National Employment Report®. The report, which is produced by ADP® , a leading provider of human capital management solutions, in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics, is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data and measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis. May’s job gains were revised downward to 134,000 from 135,000.

Generally, the ADP report overshoots the BLS figures, although they actually underestimated job creation last month.  Even the full 188K is only a mediocre figure, barely over the 150K needed to meet population growth.  If the BLS number comes in on Friday at 80% of ADP, that would be exactly 150K — the equivalent of treading water.  Neither figure would demonstrate that we have anywhere near the kind of job creation needed to get the millions who have fallen out of the workforce back into jobs.

The ADP report presents a mixed bag in the categories of employment.  Most of the growth came in the service sector, although the goods-producing sector had its best increase in four months. Manufacturing only added 1,000 jobs, though, which is still its best month in the quarter.  Small businesses added 84,000 jobs, most of those in companies of less than 20 employees, and medium-sized businesses added 55,000.

CNBC seems pretty stoked that the numbers beat expectations:

Private companies hired 188,000 new workers in June, considerably better than expectations, indicating the job market continues to heal slowly, according to a report from ADP.

Services again stoked the number, with 161,000 new jobs compared to the goods-producing sector’s creation of 27,000 positions, the survey from ADP and Moody’s Analytics showed.

Economists polled by Reuters estimated the report on U.S. private sector job growth would show payroll growth of 160,000 jobs for June, compared to last month’s survey that showed 134,000.

The report sets the stage for Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report from the government, which is expected to show 163,000 new jobs in the private and public sector combined.

True, the ADP report beat expectations … but four years after the official end of the Great Recession, expectations of 161K and an actual result of 188K in job creation are pretty low expectations to have.  In order to put people back to work, our economy needs a sustained job-creation level of 250-300K a month for a solid year or two, and we should have had that in the in Year Two of the recovery at the latest.  We’re now starting Year 5 of the Great Stagnation, and there seems to be no end in sight.

Update: Weekly initial jobless claims came in at 343K, which is (a) about where they’ve been for the last few months, and (b) probably not a reliable final figure, as the early report probably had several states estimating rather than giving a hard count.  That doesn’t stop the AP from making a silly claim:

“Steady hiring”? That’s a meaningless phrase, but it seems to imply that the 343K level is association with high levels of job creation.  That’s simply not true, not even as a multi-week average, let alone a single data point.


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Remember in 2006 when the unemployment rate was 4.4% and that was the worst economy EVAH?!?!?

I guess I wasn’t paying attention in Econ 101.

dirtseller on July 3, 2013 at 9:46 AM

… and most of those were at the NSA.

viking01 on July 3, 2013 at 9:47 AM

Is this the start of Recovery Summer reruns?

Drained Brain on July 3, 2013 at 9:48 AM

The U.S. Economy in Review: 2006

One word—slowdown—can define the U.S. economy this past year. Economic growth and job growth both fell in 2006 from previous years as the residential housing boom came to an end. The slowdown in employment growth and economic opportunity was home grown as consumers saw rising debt payments on the record debt built up in past years. This debt squeeze leaves less money available for key household expenditures and is already beginning to push many hardworking families over the edge amid rising loan defaults and bankruptcies.

From the “Center for American Progress” December 2006

dirtseller on July 3, 2013 at 9:49 AM

With the delay of O’Scare….
Do we need all those new IRS agents?

Electrongod on July 3, 2013 at 9:50 AM

So monthly job losses are around 1.2 million and monthly hiring is around 188K? Just wanted to do the math so that we know where we stand. With those figures, and with an influx of new cheap labor, we should be doing just fine very soon. Explains why unemployment numbers are going down – we’ve got so many unemployed that we just lose track of them.

oldroy on July 3, 2013 at 9:52 AM

In some ways, the economy looks better: The Dow Jones Industrial average is up by 2,580 points (21%) over the past year (as of yesterday), home prices are up in all 20 cities tracked by the Case-Shiller home price index, and the economy has added jobs every month for the past 32 months.

From the “Center for American Progress” My 2013

dirtseller on July 3, 2013 at 9:53 AM

Tom Blumer sat in on the ADP conference call and found some “interesting” quotes from Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics (my note – Zandi is on the left side of the economics stream who believes that Porkulus worked). Notably, this is The New Normal.

Meanwhile, Gallup is claiming former part-timers have become full-time over the last month, but that the percentage of full-timers versus last year is static.

Steve Eggleston on July 3, 2013 at 9:59 AM

With the delay of O’Scare….
Do we need all those new IRS agents?

Electrongod on July 3, 2013 at 9:50 AM

There’s a lot more subjects than businesses, and PlaceboCare isn’t delayed for the masses.

Steve Eggleston on July 3, 2013 at 10:00 AM

“AP” continues to shill for Obama.

rplat on July 3, 2013 at 10:00 AM

Anything to protect Obama and Liberal orthodoxy.

Charlemagne on July 3, 2013 at 10:03 AM

So monthly job losses are around 1.2 million and monthly hiring is around 188K?

oldroy on July 3, 2013 at 9:52 AM
The “jobs added” number for the month is net job growth, i.e. job creation minus job destruction.

DKCZ on July 3, 2013 at 10:06 AM

home prices are up in all 20 cities tracked by the Case-Shiller home price index, and the economy has added jobs every month for the past 32 months.

Case Shiller is a measure of median home prices bought in a market. It has nothing to do with values. Not one thing. Using median home prices to measure a real estate market is total bunk. Always has been, always will be. The only measure that attempts to account for value is OFHEO’s quarterly statistics, a measure of resale and refis of known same properties, not of the median price only of all homes that have sold.

NAR, local real estate boards, and Case-Shiller have used median prices in an attempt to prop themselves up as knowledgeable. They all have the data to measure in the same way that OFHEO does. In fact, given the data available to NAR, they could provide near exact figures of home value appreciation and depreciation based on resale of same homes over time. But they don’t and they won’t.

Median home prices mean absolutely nothing. It is simply the easy road out on statistics and the public doesn’t know any better.

oldroy on July 3, 2013 at 10:06 AM

And at least half of them are part time jobs because of the Obamacare rules… Businesses have been cutting wages to below 30 hours since the beginning of the year so they will not get penalized by Obamacare and to make up for the productivity losses by cutting these hours they have to hire more part time people… Now since Obamacare penalty for employers is delayed till 2015 let us see how businesses react but I think they will continue cutting existing employees hours to below 30 hours and hire more part time employees to make up for the productivity losses…

mnjg on July 3, 2013 at 10:06 AM

Remember in 2006 when the unemployment rate was 4.4% and that was the worst economy EVAH?!?!?

dirtseller on July 3, 2013 at 9:46 AM

I remember the headlines from then beating Bush about the head for only a pathetic, measely 263,000 new jobs added one month. Ah good times, good times …

parke on July 3, 2013 at 10:08 AM

No poll?

22044 on July 3, 2013 at 10:08 AM

This is the first draft of the statistics. Just wait for the “unexpected” downward revision.

blammm on July 3, 2013 at 10:09 AM

Unexpected???

Face it, this stagnation is intentional.

It is by design.

Seriously intended.

This is what Progressives need…not a total collapse, but darn near it, and then they can sweep in and “give” the people the stuff the people “need”…be heroes and all that…vanquish the foe [capitalism] and usher in a whole new era of people just lovin’ each other, singin’ Kumbaya, havin’ drum circles, just all wonderful, with rainbows, and unicorns, and Skittles…

The Progressives have been waiting since the early part of the last century for an opportunity such as this…

And when it all comes down, the boogey man will be those nasty bitter clingers, the gun nuts, evil corporations, the GOP, Bush, Reagan, America.

And the people will swoon, the bands will play…and over half of America will find nothing wrong at all with any of this…and those who do, well, we will be the “extremists,” racists trying to keep the po’ folk down…

There is no other rational explanation for this government’s regime’s actions, decisions and policies since 2009.

coldwarrior on July 3, 2013 at 10:10 AM

I remember the headlines from then beating Bush about the head for only a pathetic, measely 263,000 new jobs added one month. Ah good times, good times …

parke on July 3, 2013 at 10:08 AM

I also remember the brilliant strategy that the smartest guys in the GOP concocted to NOT answer ANY of the criticism. Fools.

“Hey, here’s an idea, after NOT setting the record straight on the economy in 2006, let’s nominate McCain in 2008 and Romney in 2012.”

dirtseller on July 3, 2013 at 10:12 AM

The “jobs added” number for the month is net job growth, i.e. job creation minus job destruction.

DKCZ on July 3, 2013 at 10:06 AM

Oh. I see. So if we grow in population by 3 or 4 million, and we add 1.5 million or so part time and full time jobs, how exactly is unemployment going down? I guess I’m surprised that the numbers just don’t add up. Do we count extra for the people that are working two jobs? Math is hard. Especially when the Government puts the figures out.

oldroy on July 3, 2013 at 10:15 AM

So monthly job losses are around 1.2 million and monthly hiring is around 188K? Just wanted to do the math so that we know where we stand. With those figures, and with an influx of new cheap labor, we should be doing just fine very soon. Explains why unemployment numbers are going down – we’ve got so many unemployed that we just lose track of them.

oldroy on July 3, 2013 at 9:52 AM

Why at that pace, the entire adult population will be unemployed by the end of Teh SCOAMT’s reign of terror.

Seriously, you’re confusing the concepts of “gross” and “net”, as well as the difference between the number of jobs (the “monthly net ‘hired’” number) and the number of employed/unemployed.

The net monthly hiring gain/loss is the difference between the number of jobs that didn’t exist in the prior month but do exist in the reporting month and the number of jobs that did exist in the prior month but don’t in the reporting month. Applying that to the summation of the initial jobless claims, assuming ADP is right, and ignoring the fact that it’s a comparison of apples to oranges, that means that approximately 1.6 million gross jobs that didn’t exist in May do in June, while approximately 1.4 (not 1.2) million gross jobs that did exist in May didn’t exist in June.

In the future, I’d suggest comparing the changes in continuing claims, as that is a “net” number. For example, while there were 1.41 million new initial claims (seasonally adjusted) between the first week of May to the first week of June, the number of people on unemployment shrank from 3.02 million to 2.99 million over the same period.

Steve Eggleston on July 3, 2013 at 10:19 AM

And with Obama’s new climate change directives, we’re looking at the dark end of the tunnel. Hmm…..reminds me of Japan. Isn’t Krugman gonna recommend another ‘stimulus’? Expect him to preach it soon.

tommy71 on July 3, 2013 at 10:22 AM

Oh. I see. So if we grow in population by 3 or 4 million, and we add 1.5 million or so part time and full time jobs, how exactly is unemployment going down?

oldroy on July 3, 2013 at 10:15 AM
Unemployment counts only those considered to be actively looking for work. Due to unemployed people gradually giving up looking for work and thus dropping out of the labor force, the unemployment rate can decline without a corresponding increase in the employment-population ratio.

DKCZ on July 3, 2013 at 10:22 AM

HIRE ME[?]

(from the graphic)

You screwed yourself, sister.

Get over it.

BTW: Enjoy those higher health insurance premiums and/or the IRS on your a** for the rest of your life.

Stepan on July 3, 2013 at 10:24 AM

(from the graphic)

You screwed yourself, sister.

Get over it.

BTW: Enjoy those higher health insurance premiums and/or the IRS on your a** for the rest of your life.

Stepan on July 3, 2013 at 10:24 AM

Actually, since PlaceboCare is designed to subsidize the Flukes of the ObamiNation, she’ll make out just fine. It’s the rest of us, and specifically single males, who are screwed.

Steve Eggleston on July 3, 2013 at 10:29 AM

that means that approximately 1.6 million gross jobs that didn’t exist in May do in June, while approximately 1.4 (not 1.2) million gross jobs that did exist in May didn’t exist in June.

Steve Eggleston on July 3, 2013 at 10:19 AM

Chuckle. But if the net jobs added is 188K, how exactly is the grow jobs number important. If gross jobs lost is not important, why exactly is gross new jobs important. Didn’t you imply that net is what we are really looking for?

oldroy on July 3, 2013 at 10:31 AM

What other statistic could possibly matter than number of people eligible to work versus number of people actually working.

Show that trend over time. Done. If you want to get fancy, show disability claims as percentage of (formerly) available workers.

WitchDoctor on July 3, 2013 at 10:33 AM

I’m absolutely certain that the ‘revised’ numbers over the next few months will be a lot lower.

RoadRunner on July 3, 2013 at 10:33 AM

BREAKING: Weekly applications for US unemployment aid fell to 343K last week, a sign of steady hiring. – The Asinine Press

Gosh, Batman, er, “Captain Kickäss”, strike up the band!
Oh wait, he can’t – that “sequester” thingy that punishes PATRIOTIC Americans will be felt again this PATRIOTIC Holiday Weekend. NO bands, NO public fireworks, NO military flyovers is how President ØbeyMe will show US! What a Petulant Pissant.
And why ADP? Since not every company and corporation in America uses their services, their numbers are meaningless. I’d like to know how many people are working for cash, and not paying taxes during Øligula’s Depression.
MILLION$ I’d bet.
~(Ä)~

Karl Magnus on July 3, 2013 at 10:34 AM

Math is hard. Especially when the Government puts the figures out.

oldroy on July 3, 2013 at 10:15 AM

That’s why I’ve got a spreadsheet for that.

Steve Eggleston on July 3, 2013 at 10:35 AM

Unemployment counts only those considered to be actively looking for work. Due to unemployed people gradually giving up looking for work and thus dropping out of the labor force, the unemployment rate can decline without a corresponding increase in the employment-population ratio.

DKCZ on July 3, 2013 at 10:22 AM

But if things are going so good, why would anybody need to give up? And who defines “giving up”? And what happens when someone who “gave up” decides to get back at it? How are they counted? Seems we might need more U classifications than Germany had U-boats so we can hide the real numbers. We need a U-149 number and a U-374 number and everything in between.

oldroy on July 3, 2013 at 10:36 AM

A decade of recession, followed buy ????
It happens every time it’s tried.

Wealth is created by mining the earth and
by manufacturing products.
Services do not create wealth.
Two barbers cutting each others hair will starve to death.

But running an extortion racket is much more fun.

esblowfeld on July 3, 2013 at 10:37 AM

Chuckle. But if the net jobs added is 188K, how exactly is the grow jobs number important. If gross jobs lost is not important, why exactly is gross new jobs important. Didn’t you imply that net is what we are really looking for?

oldroy on July 3, 2013 at 10:31 AM

It’s all about the net. Only in the calculation (or in the case of the weekly jobless claims where only half the equation is available, the estimation) of the net is the gross important.

Steve Eggleston on July 3, 2013 at 10:38 AM

That’s why I’ve got a spreadsheet for that.

Steve Eggleston on July 3, 2013 at 10:35 AM

Animated charts and graphs too? Maybe like a picture of Obama dressed up like Will Smith in “Wild Wild West” standing next to a serious “steam-punk” looking machine and cranking it? Then the jobs numbers start tumbling out of it?

oldroy on July 3, 2013 at 10:40 AM

Two barbers cutting each others hair will starve to death.

But running an extortion racket is much more fun.

esblowfeld on July 3, 2013 at 10:37 AM

There has probably got to be a farmer, a rancher and a truck driver in there somewhere, don’t you think?

oldroy on July 3, 2013 at 10:42 AM

Wait till next year at this time to see how many jobs are added after companies have had that extra year to pare jobs away before implementation of the ObamaScare/RobertsTax.

stukinIL4now on July 3, 2013 at 10:47 AM

But if things are going so good, why would anybody need to give up? And who defines “giving up”? And what happens when someone who “gave up” decides to get back at it? How are they counted? Seems we might need more U classifications than Germany had U-boats so we can hide the real numbers. We need a U-149 number and a U-374 number and everything in between.

oldroy on July 3, 2013 at 10:36 AM

Taking the questions slightly out of order to try to make the answers make sense:

And who defines “giving up”? The government, which for the purposes of the official U-3 number, defines that as those who didn’t actively look for work in the 4 weeks prior to the reference week (which except for November is the week that includes the 12th day). For the U-4 through U-6 classifications, if they last looked more than a year prior to the reference week, they don’t even count as “marginally-attached”.

But if things are going so good, why would anybody need to give up? The short answer is they’re not so good. The longer is some legtimately retire, some (usually reflected in October and February, a month after schools resume) go back to school, but most do just give up active hope for a while.

And what happens when someone who “gave up” decides to get back at it? If they start looking and do get a job, they move back into the workforce as employed. If they start looking but don’t get a job, they’re counted as officially unemployed once again.

Steve Eggleston on July 3, 2013 at 10:52 AM

Regarding your front page tease, we are not starting our 5th year of stagnation we are ending our 5th year and ready to start our 6th.

Tater Salad on July 3, 2013 at 10:53 AM

CNBC seems pretty stoked that the numbers beat expectations:

Well, you know, it’s not the Bush administration any more, when slow job growth was a national catastrophe….

There Goes the Neighborhood on July 3, 2013 at 10:53 AM

Come on folks. We just need to shutdown all that nasty coal and oil stuff. Then we can kick start green tech and there will be billions of high paying jobs and cheap energy.

Dr. Frank Enstine on July 3, 2013 at 10:54 AM

Animated charts and graphs too? Maybe like a picture of Obama dressed up like Will Smith in “Wild Wild West” standing next to a serious “steam-punk” looking machine and cranking it? Then the jobs numbers start tumbling out of it?

oldroy on July 3, 2013 at 10:40 AM

I don’t do animations, but I pulled out a couple graphs and a chart in a Green Room special request look at last month’s jobs report.

Steve Eggleston on July 3, 2013 at 10:55 AM

FYI, AP, layoffs have nothing to do with “steady hiring”.

Tater Salad on July 3, 2013 at 10:55 AM

Well, you know, it’s not the Bush administration any more, when slow job growth was a national catastrophe….

There Goes the Neighborhood on July 3, 2013 at 10:53 AM

Not to mention National Guard service, mission accomplished signs and a white house staffer lying to a reporter about a non cia agent that he didn’t out. Now those were true national crises. Nothing like these silly fake things like F&F, IRS, NSA, drones, green energy, well just to many to write down but I’m sure you get the idea.

Dr. Frank Enstine on July 3, 2013 at 10:59 AM

I think what we need is 11 million new entry level workers!

PattyJ on July 3, 2013 at 11:00 AM

Well, you know, it’s not the Bush administration any more, when slow job growth was a national catastrophe….

There Goes the Neighborhood on July 3, 2013 at 10:53 AM

Not to mention National Guard service, mission accomplished signs and a white house staffer lying to a reporter about a non cia agent that he didn’t out. Now those were true national crises. Nothing like these silly fake things like F&F, IRS, NSA, drones, green energy, well just to many to write down but I’m sure you get the idea.

Dr. Frank Enstine on July 3, 2013 at 10:59 AM

Surely you’re not referring to the “remarkably scandal-free Obama administration?”

There Goes the Neighborhood on July 3, 2013 at 11:00 AM

Wealth is created by mining the earth and
by manufacturing products.
Services do not create wealth.
Two barbers cutting each others hair will starve to death.

But running an extortion racket is much more fun.

esblowfeld on July 3, 2013 at 10:37 AM

Well Said, Sir.
As for “oldroy” and his “steam punk” reference … lemme guess. *chuckle*
~(Ä)~

Karl Magnus on July 3, 2013 at 11:09 AM

As for “oldroy” and his “steam punk” reference … lemme guess. *chuckle*
~(Ä)~

Karl Magnus on July 3, 2013 at 11:09 AM

No. No. Steam Punk is a genre of art. Kind of Wild Wild West meets Yellow Submarine with a little bit of Pink Floyd thrown in.

oldroy on July 3, 2013 at 11:13 AM

ADP, released their proprietary private payrolls jobs report. This month ADP is reporting a gain of 176,000 private sector jobs in June. May 2012 was revised up by 3,000, from 133,000 to 136,000.

ADP, a private organization, released their private payrolls jobs report. This month ADP is reporting a gain of 157,000 private sector jobs in June 2011.

{Dec 2010}…after the agreement was reached to extend the Bush tax cuts, President Obama promised us laser like focus on jobs.

ADP National Employment Report Shows United States Added 368,000 Private Sector Jobs in June 2006 Media Contacts: ADP Public Relations–July 5, 2006 —

At the rate we’re going, the gap from 188K to 368K will be bridged by 2022.

socalcon on July 3, 2013 at 11:15 AM

Regarding your front page tease, we are not starting our 5th year of stagnation we are ending our 5th year and ready to start our 6th.

Tater Salad on July 3, 2013 at 10:53 AM

The latter half of 2008 and the first half of 2009 weren’t exactly “stagnation”.

Steve Eggleston on July 3, 2013 at 11:21 AM

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, I’ll give my June predictions now:

- +140K jobs (+160K private-sector)
- 7.6% U-3 rate as the college kids gave getting summer jobs one more shot before settling into their parents’ basements for the rest of summer.

Steve Eggleston on July 3, 2013 at 11:25 AM

While these jobs were created, one very important job was lost.

Mine.

Last month I became unemployed after nearly 20 years working in a high tech industry.

kurtzz3 on July 3, 2013 at 11:56 AM

Steady Hiring? Of course it is! When I go to Taco Bell I’m always waited on by a different teenage cashier.

kirkill on July 3, 2013 at 12:11 PM

Just wait, all the revenue and savings with Obamacare will be awesome!

kirkill on July 3, 2013 at 12:15 PM

hile these jobs were created, one very important job was lost.

Mine.

Last month I became unemployed after nearly 20 years working in a high tech industry.

kurtzz3 on July 3, 2013 at 11:56 AM

I’m so sorry! My husband has been out of work for almost three months now. And we thought we had survived the recession. Not! I hope you find a job quickly!

maables on July 3, 2013 at 12:15 PM

While these jobs were created, one very important job was lost.

Mine.

Last month I became unemployed after nearly 20 years working in a high tech industry.

kurtzz3 on July 3, 2013 at 11:56 AM

To Barky and his media whores these are just numbers.

To America and our neighbors and fellow citizens it means direct impact. I’ve seen over five stores close at the local mall in the past two months and lots of coffee shops now shuttered.

I heard from a friend long-distance this morning that Redstone Arsenal just cut a couple thousand jobs. That’s where Missile Command and Marshall Space Flight Center are located. Two of the top technology centers in the nation which Barky the Vacationer probably resents most.

viking01 on July 3, 2013 at 12:16 PM

I’m so sorry! My husband has been out of work for almost three months now. And we thought we had survived the recession. Not! I hope you find a job quickly!

maables on July 3, 2013 at 12:15 PM

Not to worry. I see from

kirkill on July 3, 2013 at 12:11 PM

that Taco Bell is hiring. Gotta remember to drop my Windows OS internals experience and learn to say “Do you want fries with that?”

kurtzz3 on July 3, 2013 at 12:19 PM

that does it, I’m moving to Mexico!

kirkill on July 3, 2013 at 12:36 PM

I’ve been unable to find full time employment for over a year. From semiconductor process engineer (27 years in the industry) to part time ramp agent tossing bags and loading cargo into aircraft…………

All Hail the Messiah!

dmann on July 3, 2013 at 12:50 PM

So, what’s that median household income at today compared to the last 10 years, hmmmmmm???

They don’t seem to want to mention that anymore.

How’s that median household net worth figure doing these days, hmmmm?

*crickets*

Meremortal on July 3, 2013 at 3:18 PM

indicating the job market continues to heal slowly

Hahahahaha!!!!!!!

Yeah, tell that to all those in the U6 category. You know, the one’s the government no longer counts as “unemployed”.

At this rate of “healing”, we should be back on firm economic ground in about 20 YEARS!

GarandFan on July 3, 2013 at 3:19 PM

After way too long, I’m 1 of that 188k. No help from Obama’s policies though.

njrob on July 3, 2013 at 11:44 PM