Poll: Rick Perry leads Wendy Davis by 14 in Texas — and by six among women

posted at 5:01 pm on July 2, 2013 by Allahpundit

The pollster is left-leaning PPP, so consider this an admission against interest. Or, if you prefer, a friendly warning to comrades on the left that dumping millions on a futile Davis gubernatorial bid isn’t the best use of their money during a midterm year.

39% of Texans have a favorable opinion of Davis to 29% with a negative one after her week in the spotlight. Her net favorability is up 14 points from -14 at 15/19 in January. By a 45/40 margin voters say they support her filibuster last week, and by a narrow 44/43 margin they don’t think Perry should call another special session. Voters oppose Senate Bill 5 by an 8 point margin, 28/20, although the 52% with no opinion is a reality check on how closely most people follow state politics.

Nevertheless Davis would trail Rick Perry by 14 points in a hypothetical match up, 53/39. While Davis’ standing has improved over the last five months so has Perry’s. Although he remains unpopular, with 45% of voters approving of him to 50% who disapprove, his approval is up a net 8 points from January when he was at a -13 spread (41/54). In addition to his lead over Davis, Perry also leads Julian Castro 50/43, Bill White 50/40, and Annise Parker 52/35. In January he led this quartet of Democrats by an average of 4 points, now he leads them by an average of 12…

Texas may trend Democratic eventually but for now this little factoid sums up the state pretty well- Wendy Davis has a +10 favorability, Rick Perry has a -5 approval, and he still leads her by 14 anyway.

Fully 60 percent of Texans say they’d prefer that Perry not run for re-election versus 30 percent who say otherwise, but a longtime Republican incumbent in a very red state is hard to beat even when the public’s fatigued with him. How hard? Among women in Texas, Perry’s net job approval is at -9 while Davis’s favorable rating is +16. And yet:

pd

The X factor for Davis is San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro, who keynoted the Democratic convention last year. He trails Perry by just seven points head to head due to the fact that he fares far better than Davis does among men. They’re nearly identical among women against Perry, but Perry’s lead over Castro among men is just nine points versus 25 points(!) over Davis. If that number doesn’t move much, she’d need a 30-point swing among women to be competitive. Castro’s obviously the better choice, especially since Democrats are eager for Latino candidates who might inspire more Latinos to register to vote, but he won’t be 39 until this September and Texas is still an uphill battle for a Dem. Maybe he figures he’ll wait four years to give the demographics more time to shift and let Davis take her best shot against Perry the incumbent. If everything breaks right for him, he’ll be facing a new Republican nominee in 2018 with many more Latino Democrats on the rolls.

And now, for your viewing pleasure, here’s the biggest media softball interview yet with the left’s new hero. Not only are the sneakers discussed at length, the interviewer actually holds one of them up. When you’re in the presence of Jesus, I guess you need to seize the chance to touch the hem of his robe. The interviewer, incidentally, is ABC’s Jeff Zeleny, formerly of the New York Times White House beat, where he once famously asked a newly elected Barack Obama how enchanting he found the presidency so far. They picked the right guy for this assignment. Click the image to watch.

wd1


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The Left is playing the Long Game to turn Texas blue. What’s to stop it?

faraway on July 2, 2013 at 5:04 PM

If I were interviewing her, my first question
would have been:

So Wendy, how’s the Bush?

ToddPA on July 2, 2013 at 5:06 PM

Yeeeehaw!

That sound you hear is massive liberal head splosions radiating out from Austin.

Kick Liberal A$$ Governor Perry.

Gig Em’

workingclass artist on July 2, 2013 at 5:09 PM

Maybe Alison Lundergan Grimes should move to Texas??????

Eph on July 2, 2013 at 5:11 PM

Only 6 pts.?
I wish certain members of my gender would stop voting with their V88-j%%s.

annoyinglittletwerp on July 2, 2013 at 5:11 PM

With most of the European countries banning abortion after 12 weeks, do you think that your are evil for want to kill a viable 7 month old baby?

jukin3 on July 2, 2013 at 5:12 PM

It’s hard not to vomit just looking at the picture. There’s no way I’m clicking the link and ruin my favorite keyboard!!

Deano1952 on July 2, 2013 at 5:12 PM

She’s already yesterday’s news.

She resurrected Perry. He might decide to run again just because of her.

Schadenfreude on July 2, 2013 at 5:13 PM

Leftards wanted to use her to turn Texas blue.

Good job!

Schadenfreude on July 2, 2013 at 5:13 PM

R+4 sample

Yeah, right, PPP

blammm on July 2, 2013 at 5:14 PM

“If everything breaks right for him, he’ll be facing a new Republican nominee in 2018 with many more Latino Democrats on the rolls.”

Better chance at 2022. Or 2026. LOL!

Eph on July 2, 2013 at 5:14 PM

OT: Look w2ho’s moving to FNC primetime. Who’s getting bumped to make room? I vote for Shep.

http://www.mediabistro.com/tvnewser/megyn-kelly-moving-to-primetime-at-fox-news_b186632

Philly on July 2, 2013 at 5:15 PM

Pointless poll. She probably won’t win her district again in Fort Worth. She wouldn’t stand a chance in any state-wide race. In fact, she’ll likely have to end up moving if she wants a continued career in politics.

Erich66 on July 2, 2013 at 5:16 PM

Philly on July 2, 2013 at 5:15 PM

From your mouth to G-d’s ears!

annoyinglittletwerp on July 2, 2013 at 5:16 PM

PPP (D) +14 = reality +20

Eph on July 2, 2013 at 5:16 PM

Castro’s obviously the better choice, especially since Democrats are eager for Latino candidates who might inspire more Latinos to register to vote, but he won’t be 39 until this September and Texas is still an uphill battle for a Dem.

He has no chance in 2014. Maybe in 2018 if a Republican is in the White House and Dem turnout is up during the midterms. But I suspect(provided amnesty doesn’t get out of the House) that conservatives and Tea Partiers will be very angry and motivated to show up and vote against anyone with a D next to their name once Obamacare is fully implemented and F’s everything up.

Doughboy on July 2, 2013 at 5:18 PM

Reposting from the other thread in case you missed it.

If you haven’t seen this, get Kleenex.

Rick Perry put it out.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q4foXehDmWs
Barred on July 2, 2013 at 5:14 PM

Barred on July 2, 2013 at 5:18 PM

Fully 60 percent of Texans say they’d prefer that Perry not run for re-election versus 30 percent who say otherwise, but a longtime Republican incumbent in a very red state is hard to beat even when the public’s fatigued with him.

Texans will re-elect Perry to avoid the Californication of Texas.

Folks outside Texas have no idea how deep this fear is and the resistance to Californication is…But most folks outside of Texas underestimate the strength of Texas Identity.

If Perry decides not to run for Governor it will be because he’ll help Abbott…and prepare for a national run himself when he’ll have plenty of time to travel and meet voters before he even has to announce a run.

If Perry decides not to run…He’ll leave on a historic high note as Governor.

workingclass artist on July 2, 2013 at 5:19 PM

Wow! That Jeff Zeleny is one tough dude..!

d1carter on July 2, 2013 at 5:20 PM

This is a poll? Seriously? And HA is noticing it… why?

Good f*cking grief.

Midas on July 2, 2013 at 5:20 PM

Pointless poll. She probably won’t win her district again in Fort Worth. She wouldn’t stand a chance in any state-wide race. In fact, she’ll likely have to end up moving if she wants a continued career in politics.

Erich66 on July 2, 2013 at 5:16 PM

She can always go back to her home state…Rhode Island.

workingclass artist on July 2, 2013 at 5:21 PM

OT: Look w2ho’s moving to FNC primetime. Who’s getting bumped to make room? I vote for Shep.

http://www.mediabistro.com/tvnewser/megyn-kelly-moving-to-primetime-at-fox-news_b186632

Philly on July 2, 2013 at 5:15 PM

Shep’s two hours (3 and 7) are a waste. Kelly’s got two hours in the afternoon. Who’s going to fill those?

Can we give Hannity’s hour to Michelle Malkin?

BuckeyeSam on July 2, 2013 at 5:21 PM

Almost as delicious as the Rubio/Hilary poll..

melle1228 on July 2, 2013 at 5:24 PM

Wow! That Jeff Zeleny is one tough dude..!

d1carter on July 2, 2013 at 5:20 PM

Zeleny’s the guy who asked Obama the “enchanting” question.

Beyond that, Zeleny used to be at the NYT, and I’m surprised to see him on ABC. Why? Because the guy is practically incoherent when asking questions. Watching him on TV is like watching Dustin Hoffman’s Rainman character. Zeleny has been on Special Report and Fox News Sunday several times, and each time Baier or Wallace essentially had to pull the words out of his mouth.

BuckeyeSam on July 2, 2013 at 5:25 PM

She can always go back to her home state…Rhode Island.

workingclass artist on July 2, 2013 at 5:21 PM

I’ll buy her plane ticket and a new catheter for the non-stop flight.

Erich66 on July 2, 2013 at 5:26 PM

But, but, but, Eleanor Clift said that Wendy Davis would cause Texas to turn ‘baby blue.’ (Yes, she really said that. ‘Baby blue’ in an abortion debate.)

Resist We Much on July 2, 2013 at 5:28 PM

dammit word got out cozmo, guess my hunch about dems getting killed in the polls was on target

DanMan on July 2, 2013 at 5:29 PM

somebody cover me, I’m checking in at Kos for laughs…be right back

DanMan on July 2, 2013 at 5:30 PM

Who is the azz-sniffing, tinted glasses pansy doing the interview…I refuse to sit through advertisements for a media that I despise.

Jaibones on July 2, 2013 at 5:31 PM

Or, if you prefer, a friendly warning to comrades on the left that dumping millions on a futile Davis gubernatorial bid isn’t the best use of their money during a midterm year.

Like that stopped them from dumping $10 million into Arkansas in 2010 to primary Blanche Lincoln. Lincoln beat Halter by 4 and went on to lose to Boozman by 21.

Resist We Much on July 2, 2013 at 5:31 PM

I hope pro-lifers across the country watch how this is going down in Texas and draw some lessons. Mark off 20 weeks, rule out late-term abortions, cast the liberals as ghouls and Gosnells for opposing it, and declare victory. Legislatively, focus on the informed consent (not intrusive), parental consent/notification, conscience exception, clinic regulation, and funding matters. Outwardly, focus on education about adoption and care for the women.

With those in mind, the cries about the so-called War on Women will largely fall on deaf ears and, to the extent it continues, liberals will sound like the little boy crying wolf.

BuckeyeSam on July 2, 2013 at 5:33 PM

BuckeyeSam on July 2, 2013 at 5:25 PM

Yep, I’ve watched his illustrious career. He might better suited for blogging under a pseudonym…LO.L I think he was scared to death on Fox News.

d1carter on July 2, 2013 at 5:34 PM

OT: Look w2ho’s moving to FNC primetime. Who’s getting bumped to make room? I vote for Shep.

http://www.mediabistro.com/tvnewser/megyn-kelly-moving-to-primetime-at-fox-news_b186632

Philly on July 2, 2013 at 5:15 PM

I saw that Greta van Susteren is in talks to go back to CNN, so it’s possible Megyn Kelly takes over for her. I wouldn’t mind seeing Shep gone though, he’s kind of annoying.

vegconservative on July 2, 2013 at 5:35 PM

Re: Kos…Like a Hillary campaign theme, it’s yesterday news over there. No mention of their pollsters results and nothing on propping up Obamacare by delaying it for a year. Fax machine must be busted again.

DanMan on July 2, 2013 at 5:36 PM

Poll: Rick Perry leads Wendy Davis by 14 in Texas — and by six among women

Ancillary fact from this poll: women are clearly now the dumber gender.

TeaPartyNation on July 2, 2013 at 5:39 PM

DanMan on July 2, 2013 at 5:30 PM

Or like the time I tuned in to Rocky Madcow…for 5 seconds. She was whining about gun control again…seems that’s her #1 issue is defeating the 2nd amendment.

kirkill on July 2, 2013 at 5:41 PM

clearly now the dumber gender.

TeaPartyNation on July 2, 2013 at 5:39 PM

now? when…

as littletwerp said, they need to stop voting with their v8

kirkill on July 2, 2013 at 5:42 PM

Nobody outside this state understands Texas politics, it’s ludicrous to watch people discussing a Wendy Davis bid. Anybody watch what happened to Bill White, a really good Democrat nominee from Houston, when he ran? He lost because big-city candidates NEVER win the statewide offices in Texas. White had Houston, but nothing else. Just like Julian Castro will San Antonio and El Paso, but nothing else. Wendy Davis could get a slim majority probably in Dallas, Houston, and Austin, but the rest of the state ain’t gonna be interested. It’s the big population OUTSIDE of the big cities that goes lock step for Perry every time, and will continue to do so as long as he runs.

Tom Servo on July 2, 2013 at 5:43 PM

Can we give Hannity’s hour to Michelle Malkin?

BuckeyeSam on July 2, 2013 at 5:21 PM

No, not since Fox allowed Geraldo to threaten to spit on Michelle, and didn’t back up Michelle, Michelle will never go on O’Reilly, so I would think they would not want that war to be waged on TV.

right2bright on July 2, 2013 at 5:47 PM

I saw that Greta van Susteren is in talks to go back to CNN, so it’s possible Megyn Kelly takes over for her. I wouldn’t mind seeing Shep gone though, he’s kind of annoying.

vegconservative on July 2, 2013 at 5:35 PM

Hate to see Greta go, I think she is one of the best, but she is a liberal at heart and probably misses that CNN liberal slant.

right2bright on July 2, 2013 at 5:48 PM

The reason Julian Castro will not be running for governor is he’s the second-most-likely Rat Presidential nominee in 2016 (after Biden).

Steve Eggleston on July 2, 2013 at 5:52 PM

I just heard on the radio that Perry is going to make some kind of big announcement on Monday.

http://trailblazersblog.dallasnews.com/2013/07/breaking-gov-rick-perry-to-make-major-announcement-monday-on-his-political-future.html/

If he doesn’t run for gov, then Greg Abbott will, and he will easily beat Davis or Castro too.

juliesa on July 2, 2013 at 5:54 PM

Go Rick Perry. Kick her butt!

gophergirl on July 2, 2013 at 5:55 PM

Tom Servo on July 2, 2013 at 5:43 PM

I did not know Houston went for San Antonio native Bill White. maybe redistricting can repair my city.

kirkill, I have a sister in NoVa that thinks that dude maddow is the smartest person in the world

DanMan on July 2, 2013 at 5:55 PM

Did Jeff ask her if sho loves kittens? Really no different from any of the puff balls get from the media, some of the journos are lower than others and debase themselves, bnut of they don’t know it and if they did would say it’s for a good cause. You know, maybe get the deficits up to more than two trillion yearly

arand on July 2, 2013 at 5:56 PM

Why in the world do women and sissy pants men keep pushing an abortion agenda. You currently have any type of birth control known to mankind, the plan B pill and G-d knows what else to stop the birth of a human being. Why not just be responsible? I know, too much to ask for.

DDay on July 2, 2013 at 6:00 PM

I hope pro-lifers across the country watch how this is going down in Texas and draw some lessons. Mark off 20 weeks, rule out late-term abortions, cast the liberals as ghouls and Gosnells for opposing it, and declare victory. Legislatively, focus on the informed consent (not intrusive), parental consent/notification, conscience exception, clinic regulation, and funding matters. Outwardly, focus on education about adoption and care for the women.

With those in mind, the cries about the so-called War on Women will largely fall on deaf ears and, to the extent it continues, liberals will sound like the little boy crying wolf.

This!

jukin3 on July 2, 2013 at 6:00 PM

The interviewer, incidentally, is ABC’s Jeff Zeleny, formerly of the New York Times White House beat, where he once famously asked a newly elected Barack Obama how enchanting he found the presidency so far.

When you said, “the ultimate softball interview,” that was exactly the incident I thought of.

There Goes the Neighborhood on July 2, 2013 at 6:36 PM

But, but, but, Eleanor Clift said that Wendy Davis would cause Texas to turn ‘baby blue.’ (Yes, she really said that. ‘Baby blue’ in an abortion debate.)

Resist We Much on July 2, 2013 at 5:28 PM

Luckily, she’s a liberal, and therefore smarter than the rest of us.

There Goes the Neighborhood on July 2, 2013 at 6:41 PM

BABY KILLIN

it’s just not a good platform to base your candidacy on.

TX-96 on July 2, 2013 at 6:41 PM

Zeleny, that dude oozes sissyboy vibe; he’s not even beta.

Bishop on July 2, 2013 at 6:44 PM

Wait just a gol-darned minute….

This wasn’t supposed to happen!

Another Drew on July 2, 2013 at 6:44 PM

The Jesus line was good Allah.

IR-MN on July 2, 2013 at 6:54 PM

Good for Perry!

tommy71 on July 2, 2013 at 7:03 PM

OT: Look w2ho’s moving to FNC primetime. Who’s getting bumped to make room? I vote for Shep.

http://www.mediabistro.com/tvnewser/megyn-kelly-moving-to-primetime-at-fox-news_b186632

Philly on July 2, 2013 at 5:15 PM

Prime time is considered to be the 8,9, and 10 pm slots (EST), so that means the Ted Baxter, Hannity, or Greta slots. Of the three, it’s likely Greta gets moved, or decides to move to another network. On the other hand, she’s got good ratings but having Megyn there would grab a larger share, I’m sure.

TXUS on July 2, 2013 at 7:39 PM

Can we give Hannity’s hour to Michelle Malkin?

BuckeyeSam on July 2, 2013 at 5:21 PM

….we can dream!

KOOLAID2 on July 2, 2013 at 9:40 PM

Prime time is considered to be the 8,9, and 10 pm slots (EST), so that means the Ted Baxter, Hannity, or Greta slots. Of the three, it’s likely Greta gets moved, or decides to move to another network. On the other hand, she’s got good ratings but having Megyn there would grab a larger share, I’m sure.

TXUS on July 2, 2013 at 7:39 PM

…I like Greta…hope they keep her…she I think….became a Palin fan!

KOOLAID2 on July 2, 2013 at 10:00 PM

I just heard on the radio that Perry is going to make some kind of big announcement on Monday.

http://trailblazersblog.dallasnews.com/2013/07/breaking-gov-rick-perry-to-make-major-announcement-monday-on-his-political-future.html/

If he doesn’t run for gov, then Greg Abbott will, and he will easily beat Davis or Castro too.

juliesa on July 2, 2013 at 5:54 PM

If he doesn’t run for Governor…I’ll bet he’ll say he’ll continue his promote Texas Business initiative and use that to unofficially campaign till he’s ready to run nationally.

He’ll have a jump of a few years to meet people in every state.

workingclass artist on July 2, 2013 at 10:59 PM

When you’re in the presence of Jesus, I guess you need to seize the chance to touch the hem of his robe.

When you touch the hem of the pro-abortion Jesus, do you *start* bleeding?

GWB on July 3, 2013 at 9:35 AM