Poll of Latino voters: Hillary 66, Rubio 28

posted at 4:41 pm on July 1, 2013 by Allahpundit

Any poll where you’re down nearly 40 points is a bad poll, but this is as good for him as a bad poll can be.

Rubio, meanwhile, carries a narrow 31-29 positive favorability rating. Some four in 10 probable Hispanic voters, though, say they don’t know the Florida lawmaker, who has helped push for comprehensive immigration reform in the Senate…

The top performing Republican among Hispanic voters was New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who carries a 38-12 percent favorability rating. Half of voters though say they have no opinion of Christie.

Despite being more popular, Christie trails Rubio when Hispanic voters were asked who they would vote for in a Republican primary, pulling just 14 percent to Rubio’s 29 percent. Bush (13 percent), Ryan (11 percent), and Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) at 9 percent round out the top 5.

The Democratic leads only increase in hypothetical head-to-head match-ups with possible Republican candidates Ryan or Bush.

How is this “good” news for Rubio when he doesn’t even have the highest favorable rating from Latinos among Republicans in the 2016 field? Because, while it’s true that nominating Rubio won’t bring the GOP anywhere close to winning 51 percent of Latinos in 2016, that’s not the party’s goal. The goal is to win big among whites and narrow the Democrats’ advantage among blacks and Latinos as much as possible. Lose Latinos 80/20 and we’re in trouble; lose them 58/42 and we’re likely in business. The reason Rubio’s rolled the dice on immigration reform is because it not only gives him added appeal to Latinos who might be intrigued by his heritage and the historic nature of his candidacy, but it gives him a crucial “electability” argument to make to rank-and-file Republicans. He can win Latinos lose fewer Latinos! And there are a lot of Republicans out there, as John McCain and Mitt Romney could tell you, for whom perceived electability is the core concern. In fact, although Hillary would be the toughest Democrat to beat, the fact that she’s so fantastically popular with Latinos — a 73/17 favorable rating — arguably strengthens the case for Rubio by suggesting that only a groundbreaking Latino nominee will have a fighting chance of keeping her from winning that demographic overwhelmingly.

Another key tidbit from the same poll conducted by Latino Decisions:


Granted, it’s one thing for pro-immigration-reform voters to say they’ll vote for someone who champions their pet issue and another thing for them to actually do it. And granted, if you believe the rhetoric coming out of the House (which I really don’t), there’s virtually no chance of a bill passing both chambers that has a special path to citizenship in it for illegals. Again, though: The name of the game here is electability, and that number helps Rubio make his case to GOP undecideds that he’s Mr. Electability in the field. Don’t forget too that when the first primary polls between Hillary and Obama were taken in 2007, Hillary won the black vote easily; that quickly changed as O’s candidacy gained credibility, the theory being that many black voters were unfamiliar with Obama initially and didn’t think a black candidate had a real chance to win. Maybe you’ll see some lesser variation of that with Latinos — early support for the Democratic nominee and then, as they get to know Rubio, some switching as the campaign wears on. There won’t be any sort of sea change of the sort you saw among blacks between Hillary and O for the simple reason that that was an intraparty dispute, with the candidates pushing similar philosophies, and this would be an interparty one. But you may see some. Expect to hear Team Rubio mention it early and often if/when he gears up to run.

One gray lining in the silver cloud for Rubio fans, though: If Democrats see their support among Latinos starting to erode, they’re going to ratchet up the election-year demagoguery from an eight or nine to 11. Some of that will involve escalating attacks on Rubio and the GOP as anti-Latino (“Don’t forget, Rubio demanded more border security before rubber-stamping amnesty!”) but mostly, I think, it’ll come in the form of promises to Latino voters to relax some of the harsher rules in the new immigration law, if one passes, or to pass something lax themselves if nothing has yet. This is the flip side to the argument that we should nominate Rubio to neutralize Hillary’s Latino advantage. If Rubio really does end up being stronger with Latinos than anyone expects, the pressure on Democrats to pander on immigration even more than they usually do will be tremendous. We might well end up with an immigration law even weaker than Gang of Eight bill. Going to be a tough “electability” calculus for Republicans come 2016.

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Que triste. Hilldog 66, El Cubano Blanco 28.

Had a local radio host today make the case for no GOP party split after Palin’s latest comments. His only good point was that the local GOP, county level at least is working hard and we have to build up the party with “tea party” type folks.

oryguncon on July 1, 2013 at 11:54 PM

I hate to break it to you but Rubio’s approval ratings among Republicans is still good…..even though he did take a dip.

terryannonline on July 1, 2013 at 10:43 PM

Rubio’s poll numbers among Republicans are sinking like the Titanic:


bw222 on July 2, 2013 at 12:04 AM

Rubio’s poll numbers among Republicans are sinking like the Titanic:

bw222 on July 2, 2013 at 12:04 AM

You just made my day!! I wonder if he got that 30 pieces of silver in coins or the old silver certificates that are no longer in circulation.

TxAnn56 on July 2, 2013 at 12:07 AM

. And he doesn’t need to win the vote. They just need to lose the Latino vote by less.

Illinidiva on July 1, 2013 at 11:44 PM

Assuming you can hold the Republican vote at 2008 or even 2012 levels, which isn’t going to happen if Rubio is the candidate. “Let it burn” sentiment is far higher than in the past two elections. Palin helped bring conservatives to the polls in 2008. No one got conservatives excited in 2012.

bw222 on July 2, 2013 at 12:14 AM

And the one Republican that pushed the hardest for the amnesty that will flood the voter roles with Democrats is getting NO benefit from Latinos. And, yes, this bill is designed by Democrats to push most red states into becoming blue states, to make the entire country a Democratic haven: http://capitolhilloutsider.com/passage-of-the-amnesty-bill-will-spell-the-end-of-our-republic/

anotherJoe on July 2, 2013 at 1:00 AM

Just thought I’d add an excerpt from the link I gave above:

The number of illegals in this country is repeatedly cited as 11 million. This is almost certainly an underestimate. In reality the number is 20 to 30 million or more, according to a 2007 study in Social Contract. Bear Stearns estimated about 20 million in 2005. When amnesty passed in 1986, official estimates were 1.2 million illegals. There were actually 2.7 million – more than double. Within ten years, INS estimated the illegal population had grown to 10 million. It is delusional to believe the number has only increased by another 1 million in the 17 years since. Furthermore, when amnesty passes, the newly-legal aliens will invite their relatives to come, further inflating that number through chain migration.

Herein lies the real reason Democrats are slavering for this amnesty bill to pass and are tickling themselves pink that there are Republicans stupid and gullible, (or corrupt) enough to help them realize their dream. And make no mistake, an increase of 30 million in the Democrat Party voter base will guarantee Democrat majorities in the U.S. House, Senate and Presidency for the foreseeable future.

Despite the impossibly bizarre belief by some Republicans that amnesty will make illegals “like us,” a high level Congressional source recently acknowledged to me that passage of this bill [would spell utter disaster for life in America as we know it].

anotherJoe on July 2, 2013 at 1:16 AM

The Mexicans will not be voting for democrats either. They have no interest in a pathway to voting for anyone. All Rubio has done is to alienate ordinary US citizens and his conservative base.

virgo on July 2, 2013 at 1:56 AM

Pic of the Day: ‘Wake Up, America!’ – Egyptians

Resist We Much on July 1, 2013 at 5:44 PM

True, but these are the same mobs that put the Islamic Brotherhood in power in the first place.

They’re infrastructure sucks and that’s the main reason they’re out there.

I’m not blaming the Egyptian people really-“we” put a Fascist (actually several of them) into power over here. And I don’t think we’ll even bother rioting when the power grids start shutting down and the roads are no loner drivable.

We’ll sit around hoping that the “authorities” do something.

Dr. ZhivBlago on July 2, 2013 at 2:07 AM

You are so right, why are we catering to these SOB”s? If we would devote half our time to the Black community, a quarter to the independents and at least not piss off the base we would be in power forever.
hip shot on July 1, 2013 at 5:03 PM

Yeah, but see, therein lies the problem. With THIS “base”, you absolutely CANNOT devote any of your time to anyone BUT them, or else you’ll go from hero to vilified villian in a single breathe.

It’s either play exclusively to the red meat starving, outraged and overreaching, reactionary “base” of the republican party, who cannot win elections alone. Or, instantly become a Judas considered so deeply offensive to their unrealistic standards and expectations that they threaten to abandon the entire apparatus just because of your mere existence and actions as a member of “their” party.

They’ve bought so deeply into the sensationalist partisan media of their choice that nothing less than a President who speaks like they’re selling ads on the radio will suffice anymore.

Still, your idea makes perfect sense in a rational world, with a rational system, and rational people.

But alas, so it goes… You can attempt to lead a horse to water, but if the people who give them the tasty treats they love tell them not to drink? It becomes a hard living foundation to break, or to successfully encourage or challenge people to think beyond.

So here we are, America. That shining beacon on the bill we owe… Wait, wait… I got that wrong, I meant, “Shining Beacon on the Hill”..

Genuine on July 2, 2013 at 3:48 AM

Genuine, you’re so full of it, Rubio has been a pure deceiver and he’s not likely to be perceived as anything else now. He is damaged goods, a liar and fraud. His azz is kicked to the curb!

el Vaquero on July 2, 2013 at 7:19 AM

Vince Foster could not be reached for comment.

viking01 on July 2, 2013 at 7:38 AM

The goal is to win big among whites ….

Yeah, the GOP is trying to do that the way Obama is trying to restore the constitution to its original intent.
This final straw–the amnesty reward for lawbreakers–and the co-ruling party can look for a burial plot.

It won’t/doesn’t matter which cloned-twin party gets power–they both want the demise of constitutional America.

Don L on July 2, 2013 at 7:38 AM

The big question: Will Palin go third party if they force this monstrosity which is only partially amnesty-the rest unknown is big “gotcha” government surprises?

I will not vote for any elitist GOP pretender.

Don L on July 2, 2013 at 7:43 AM



MNHawk on July 2, 2013 at 8:36 AM

If Hillary runs, hispanics are the least of the GOP’s problems.

Democrats have discovered the value of the “historic first”.

Hillary will win because women will vote for her because she is a woman. We will see 70-30 splits of the female vote. Additionally there will be a “male guilt” vote just like the white guilt vote in 2008.

Hispanics are a red herring against Hillary.

makattak on July 2, 2013 at 9:37 AM

Shouldn’t that be Hillary 666, Rubio 180 ?

viking01 on July 2, 2013 at 9:40 AM

“A Modest Proposal” (ht: j.swift)
Perhaps Wee Marco Rubio would be more comfortable campaigning against ‘Old Fat Ankles’ Hillary in DEMOCRAT primaries.
The little rube has no clue re: the temperament of his alleged “party”, a political party that he has abandoned in favor of the Establishment dinosaurs and his “entitled” lust for power. Jeebus, you’d think that the kid whose ‘rents floated in would know a wee bit o’bout lawful immigration.
Muck Farco … He is dead to Conservatives.
NOW: Let us begin the long road to choosing a real man to lead this country. The last thing we need is another man-child poseur.
I hope all of those who always jump on the bandwagon of the GOP darling du jour wake up some day. Until then …
Ruck off, Fubio.

Karl Magnus on July 2, 2013 at 9:51 AM

Hmmmm…this just may have the NY Times, Wash Post and Fox News pushing Rubio for the RNC nomination instead of ‘next man up’ Jeb Bush.

jangle12 on July 2, 2013 at 10:17 AM

Yeah, I seem to remember a poll where Charlie Crist was leading Rubio by like 80 points for the Senate seat Rubio ended up winning. I love Hot Air but polling this far out is horseshit.

eaglephin on July 2, 2013 at 10:36 AM

Hillary’s camp will probably roll out spots with Monica saying how much she like to (blow) Bill….
and that Hillary would never (never did) do that. Besides she is gay now and loves Weiners wife.

redguy on July 2, 2013 at 10:38 AM

Donate, work, and vote for any Dem who ever runs against the Rube.

Don’t cower when the fear mongering ramps up. Do it.

kunegetikos on July 2, 2013 at 10:53 AM

But the Rube “knows” you will never vote again him in a general election.

He “knows” that you will endorse what he has done at the polls.

He is laughing in your face.

kunegetikos on July 2, 2013 at 11:09 AM

As Rush said, these folks want Santa Claus, and you can’t out-liberal a liberal. Nice job, GOP. I hope you get your act together soon or you will be in the dustbin of history.

Decoski on July 2, 2013 at 11:13 AM

Shouldn’t that be Hillary 666, Rubio 180 ?

viking01 on July 2, 2013 at 9:40 AM


Yes, it should.

hawkeye54 on July 2, 2013 at 12:28 PM

hope you get your act together soon or you will be in the dustbin of history.

Decoski on July 2, 2013 at 11:13 AM

As long as the GOP elite leftist abetting leadership exists the dustbin is a more likely outcome, not that the elites would mind. Down deep in the depths they would rather be Dems anyway.

hawkeye54 on July 2, 2013 at 12:34 PM

If Gang of 8 legislation passes in some form, the country as we have known it is done, period, paragraph.

Rubio (and his allies) have no clue as to what is coming their way if, and, or when he enters the GOP 2016 sweepstakes, and Hillary is waving and winking at him from across the divide.

I am just about done with all of this. If conservatives can’t take over the party, we might as well start our own.

itzWicks on July 2, 2013 at 2:26 PM

Down 66-28 BEFORE the billion dollar smear campaign … along with endlessly free MSM smear. Not good. Not good at all.

Carnac on July 2, 2013 at 3:51 PM

Their goal is to win big among whites? Ha-ha-ha! This amnesty thing sure ain’t gonna make that happen!Proud to be a new member of the 8 million who didn’t show in ’08!The GOP is dead to me.

redware on July 2, 2013 at 9:55 PM

Tell me the labor unions, La Raza & other Latino organizations are not involved. When someone offers free stuff, do you vote or your convictions. These people come from nothing, the choice is pretty clear.

RdLake on July 4, 2013 at 6:50 AM

The unmotivated love free stuff. They’re not interested in change & they know Hillary will keep the gravy train rolling because she’ll be owned by the special interest groups.

Polybius: 200BC
“the people have become accustomed to feed at the expense of others, and their prospects of winning a livelihood depend upon the property of their neighbors; then as soon as they find a leader who is sufficiently ambitious and daring . . . they will introduce a regime based on violence.” Social and political order will deteriorate until the people “degenerate into a state of bestiality, after which they once more find a master and a despot.”

RdLake on July 4, 2013 at 10:40 PM