Special election in MA: Markey vs Gomez for US Senate

posted at 8:01 am on June 25, 2013 by Ed Morrissey

Massachusetts voters go to the polls today to choose a replacement for former US Senator John Kerry, who’s now underwhelming as Secretary of State rather than in the upper chamber.  Republicans want to pull off another Scott Brown-like miracle, but the chances of doing so are … remote:

Massachusetts voters go to the polls on Tuesday to choose between a Republican newcomer and a veteran Democratic Congressman hoping to preserve the majority his party holds in the U.S. Senate.

Representative Edward Markey has enjoyed a strong lead in polls since launching his campaign six months ago to succeed fellow Democrat John Kerry, now U.S. Secretary of State. Markey’s opponent is private equity executive and former Navy SEAL Gabriel Gomez, whose solid support among Republicans looks to be not enough to prevail in the liberal-leaning state.

Democrats currently enjoy a 54-46 majority over Republicans in the U.S. Senate and a win by Gomez could help the national Republican party in its bid to retake control in next year’s midterm elections.

Gomez has run as an outsider, saying in campaign appearances that as a moderate voice he could help overcome partisan gridlock in Washington. Markey, meanwhile, has sought to tie him closely to the national Republican party, whose conservative positions on issues including gun rights and abortion restrictions do not play well with Massachusetts voters.

So far, Markey’s had mixed results in that effort, but that’s probably all he needs.  A trio of new polls out in the last 24 hours shows him with a double-digit polling lead.  The survey from New England College putting Markey up 20 points is almost certainly an outlier, but two others put his lead at 10 points. Emerson College puts the race at 51/41:

With four days until the election, Democratic Congressman Ed Markey leads by 10 points over his Republican opponent Gabriel Gomez, 51 percent to 41 percent, according to a new poll by the Emerson College Polling Society. Markey appears poised to fill the MA US Senate seat vacated by Secretary of State John Kerry. The ECPS survey included 1,422 respondents with a 2.5 percent margin of error.

Felix Chen, President of ECPS, indicated the 10 point lead is a reflection of Markey’s strong
support among women voters. Fifty-five percent (55%) of women surveyed backed Markey’s bid to become the next Massachusetts Senator while only 36% supported Gomez. Gomez’s lack of support among women can be attributed to his comment in the first debate when he said he would support a Pro-Life Supreme Court Justice. …

A majority of Independents said they would choose Gomez over Markey on Election Day (53% to 37%), however, in order to win the traditional Republican election strategy would need Gomez to beat Markey among independents by a 2 to 1 margin due to the near 4 to 1 Democrat to Republican voter registration advantage.

Suffolk University has it 52/42 Markey, which hasn’t dampened Gomez’ enthusiasm:

For Gomez, the poll is another in a string of poor projections for his campaign since he won the primary. He trailed Markey by double-digits in polls ahead of the weekend — and even his own, by 7 points.

Still, Gomez aides are still predicting an upset, POLITICO reported, saying low-turnout special elections often produce surprises.

RCP has the average polling spread at Markey +12.3 points, which means that a Gomez win would be a huge surprise at this time.  Special elections do have very unpredictable turnouts, and having an established Massachusetts Democrat like Markey only in the low 50s against a Republican tenderfoot demonstrates some significant weakness in this frontrunner. That’s a lot of ground to make up in a single day, though, and nothing in any of the polling series shows momentum for Gomez in the way that Brown’s developed in the final weeks of the January 2010 special election.

I think we’re in Miracle Max territory here, even if we do hope that Gomez can pull off the upset:

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I think we’re in Miracle Max territory here, even if we do hope that Gomez can pull off the upset:

I hope Gomez loses. We don’t need another pro-amnesty GOPer in the Senate. Brown was anti-amnesty and he won.

Jon0815 on June 25, 2013 at 8:03 AM

If Markey wins, he will be confirmed tomorrow; a sure vote for Friday’s open border vote. If Gomez wins, confirmation after the 4th, no doubt.

herm2416 on June 25, 2013 at 8:06 AM

What difference does it make? And I don’t mean that as a mockery of Hillary. Seriously, what difference does it make? Gomez would vote lockstep with the Dems anyway, so why not just have the real thing instead? Besides, Ma(la)rkey seems like such a dunce that he could be useful as a constant source of fodder for conservatives. You do the math(but not arithmetic).

Doughboy on June 25, 2013 at 8:07 AM

The Latino sample size in the Emerson College poll is pitifully-low (30 total), but it looks a lot like recent Republican performance among that gropu, with Markey holding a 17-10 lead.

Viva Mexico Nord en tout cas, républicains.

Steve Eggleston on June 25, 2013 at 8:08 AM

I don’t care how Rinoish Gomez is…..

…I’ll take a Gomez victory any day over the Math challenged
career politcial sh*tbag Markey….come on Mass voters,
don’t drink that extra cup of Stupid today!

ToddPA on June 25, 2013 at 8:09 AM

If Markey wins, he will be confirmed tomorrow; a sure vote for Friday’s open border vote. If Gomez wins, confirmation after the 4th, no doubt.

herm2416 on June 25, 2013 at 8:06 AM

Gomez is for amnesty, even the original version.

Steve Eggleston on June 25, 2013 at 8:09 AM

I think we’re in Miracle Max territory here, even if we do hope that Gomez can pull off the upset

Yeah, but if you saw his interview on Fox News Sunday, why would you ever hope for such a thing?

The survey from New England College putting Markey up 20 points is almost certainly an outlier

Are you sure? UMass / Boston Herald also showed this margin. Granted, those 2 polls show the largest margin, but it’s a bit strange to have 2 outliers showing the same thing. I wouldn’t be so quick to dismiss it. Ultimately, I’ll still guess that the narrower margin of victory for Markey is closer to the truth. I’ll say Markey by 11.

Stoic Patriot on June 25, 2013 at 8:09 AM

Nice tag line Ed

Heh

cmsinaz on June 25, 2013 at 8:10 AM

The Peoples Republic Dumbassachussettes is a total lost cause.
It will be one of the states left behind as the Union of American Socialist States.

Dr. Carlo Lombardi on June 25, 2013 at 8:16 AM

I didn’t want to vote for Gomez and even forgot about it until I read this. However, Howie Carr says I should vote for him inspite of everything and no one knows MA politics like Howie.

(Janice and Buddy, the two Republicans from Amherst,MA.)

No Niks on June 25, 2013 at 8:24 AM

Gomez is for amnesty, even the original version.

Steve Eggleston on June 25, 2013 at 8:09 AM

Ugh, I have no idea how I missed that.
Sooooo, where is “the last, best hope” now?

herm2416 on June 25, 2013 at 8:30 AM

I didn’t want to vote for Gomez and even forgot about it until I read this. However, Howie Carr says I should vote for him inspite of everything and no one knows MA politics like Howie.

(Janice and Buddy, the two Republicans from Amherst,MA.)

No Niks on June 25, 2013 at 8:24 AM

I don’t know Howie Carr, but I do know Peter Ingemi, Da Tech Guy, and he said the same thing.

Steve Eggleston on June 25, 2013 at 8:34 AM

Ugh, I have no idea how I missed that.
Sooooo, where is “the last, best hope” now?

herm2416 on June 25, 2013 at 8:30 AM

W.O.P.R. since SMOD has failed us.

Steve Eggleston on June 25, 2013 at 8:38 AM

Voted for Gomez this morning.

In general I’m not enthusiastic about the results, but I’ve had the chance to meet Gomez a couple of times. While his issue stances aren’t the same as mine, let’s be clear – at least before he goes to Washington, Gabriel Gomez is an ordinary person with ordinary flaws.

Markey in contest is less of a person and more of a creature of Washington, with no opinion of his own – who is completely out of touch with reality. Markey lives in a time warp like it’s still the Ford Administration, which is when he was first elected.

Please, if you’re in MA – vote Gomez. He’s far from perfect, but he’s at least persuadable and, most importantly, human.

BKennedy on June 25, 2013 at 8:44 AM

W.O.P.R. since SMOD has failed us.

Steve Eggleston on June 25, 2013 at 8:38 AM

Don’t be silly. The only way to win is … not to play.

Ed Morrissey on June 25, 2013 at 8:46 AM

Don’t be silly. The only way to win is … not to play.

Ed Morrissey on June 25, 2013 at 8:46 AM

Heh.

Strib – Morrissey Advocates Going Galt

Steve Eggleston on June 25, 2013 at 8:48 AM

Senator Markey.

Punchenko on June 25, 2013 at 8:52 AM

As it takes corruption to represent the typical American, Gomez doesn’t stand a chance.

MNHawk on June 25, 2013 at 8:53 AM

Markey is really a phony, but he’s also a Massachusetts Democrat so he’ll probably win. You haven’t seen anyone talking about the “minority” candidate or anything like that, since Gomez is a Republican, and you won’t.

Since we haven’t straightened out the IRS mess yet, Markey will probably win. It probably won’t change the votes much, since Gomez doesn’t sound like a raving conservative, but who knows, if Gomez got in. Cruz could change him over!!! LOL

bflat879 on June 25, 2013 at 8:53 AM

When pro-amnesty Latino Republican Gomez loses you’ll still hear pundits say that the Republican party needs to cater to Latinos on immigration to win. The Stupid Party.

philw1776 on June 25, 2013 at 8:53 AM

…former US Senator John Kerry, who’s now underwhelming as Secretary of State rather than in the upper chamber.

I love Ed.

rogaineguy on June 25, 2013 at 9:01 AM

herm2416 on June 25, 2013 at 8:06 AM

Doesn’t matter, he loves amnesty. Plus he has been telling the people of Massachusetts that he’ll be the biggest RINO evah.

So eh.

We might as well have D in that seat. The media could have used Gomez against the rest of the GOP.

Lance Murdock on June 25, 2013 at 9:02 AM

Gomez is only mostly dead.

:)

Easy to see why you’re my second favorite blogger, Ed!

itsnotaboutme on June 25, 2013 at 9:05 AM

Markey will win by 17-20 points.The idiotic people of Massachusetts will go with the career politician(apologies to my Republican relatives who live there).Our only hope is 2016 in Florida.Senator Allen West does have a nice ring to it,hopefully he will trounce that traitor Rubio should he decide to run.

jeffinsjvca on June 25, 2013 at 9:06 AM

Don’t be silly. The only way to win is … not to play.

Ed Morrissey on June 25, 2013 at 8:46 AM

Yeah, but that same play was tried during the 2012 Presidential race, Ed…How well did that work out for the country?

I live in MA, and yes it’s as Moonbat addled as pretty much the rest of the Northeast, and Gomez is NOT my first choice, especially with this bastardization of a immigration bill looming.

BUT there are other issues that are just as important, including National Security (Le Effant terrible Snowden) the Kings Tax Collectors….frickkin Benghazi (remember THAT folks?).

Gomez isn’t perfect, but compared to Markey, his portrait should be next to the rest of the Founding Fathers.

Sadly I *don’t* expect Gomez to win: again this is the state that sent Markey back for over 30 years, as well as Kennedy. An upset would be nice, but I think Humpbot will have a uninterrupted evening of watching DWTS or whatever saliva-inducing programming is on TV.

BlaxPac on June 25, 2013 at 9:08 AM

I didn’t want to vote for Gomez and even forgot about it until I read this. However, Howie Carr says I should vote for him inspite of everything and no one knows MA politics like Howie.
(Janice and Buddy, the two Republicans from Amherst,MA.)
No Niks on June 25, 2013 at 8:24 AM

Deep undercover, no doubt!

I voted for the Gipper twice when I was at UMass, and marched in the Inaugural Parade that cold January morning when the Iranian hostages came home.

That was a very long time ago – it seems like an entirely different country today.

I’m not carrying any water for Gomez, but Markey is just a character from a bad distopic novel…

But given the mindset of the electorate here, they deserve nothing better than this raging arsehole.

Save a spot for me in Texas, would you please? I’ll bring my pickup, my guns and my conservatism with me.

turfmann on June 25, 2013 at 9:11 AM

We received no ads from Gomez asking us to vote for him.
We received quite a few from the DNC which pointed out the many reasons why we should vote for Markey. They were a very nasty smear job.

When my daughter saw these flyers, her response was “this is why I hate politics. This is why we don’t have good candidates and never will.”

Assuming everyone got the same personally addressed flyers from the National Democratic Committee that we did, Gomez doesn’t have a chance. He’s toast. Stick a fork in him and any other candidate stupid enough to run here

c.j.ammenheuser on June 25, 2013 at 9:14 AM

Secretary of State William F. Galvin predicted Monday that 1.6 million voters – a record low in a Massachusetts Senate race – will turnout out in Tuesday’s special US Senate election between Democrat Edward Markey and Republican Gabriel E. Gomez.

Hot Gas on June 25, 2013 at 9:16 AM

Given Gomez’s actions in recent weeks have involved running away from most of the major policy issues Republican voters nationally tend to support, this could be one case where losing-is-winning for the GOP long-term. A Senator Gomez who voted in Washington to the left of John McCain would immediately become the darling of the Sunday morning talk shows, and the official Voice of Disaffected Republicans, especially highlighting the split between the party and Latinos (since it’s a given that once the amnesty debate is over, the big media and other liberals are going to go back to hating Marco Rubio with a Palin-like passion, and make him seem indistinguishable from Ted Cruz).

An unreliable Republican vote who’s used by Democrats to claim the Republicans are out of touch on everything from global warming to gun control would be more of a nuisance than an asset going forward to 2014, and even worse if the GOP makes Senate gains to a 51-49 majority in 2014 with Gomez being re-elected, but would have to cater to his whims to keep him from pulling a Jim Jeffords and switching parties before the 2016 election.

jon1979 on June 25, 2013 at 9:20 AM

Gomez can’t win, but Scott Brown may have pulled it off.

Scotty didn’t have a chance running against the media darling Warren, but we should have gone out, full speed ahead and supported him in this election

It’s too bad Scott couldn’t get the support to run because he’s as good as it gets in Massachusetts. Worse: it looks like we’ve driven him away to New Hampshire. Our loss, their gain

c.j.ammenheuser on June 25, 2013 at 9:21 AM

Voted for Gomez this morning, gotta do what you can.

EA_MAN on June 25, 2013 at 9:22 AM

What difference does it make? And I don’t mean that as a mockery of Hillary. Seriously, what difference does it make? Gomez would vote lockstep with the Dems anyway, so why not just have the real thing instead? Besides, Ma(la)rkey seems like such a dunce that he could be useful as a constant source of fodder for conservatives. You do the math(but not arithmetic).

Doughboy on June 25, 2013 at 8:07 AM

It’s one more body for control of the Senate. People outside of MA always look at the mostly correct fact that anyone from here will vote with the democrps. A lot of us here in MA look at it from the Senate control perspective. I would rather have 54 repub senators that will sometimes vote with the dems then 54 democraps senators that will always vote with the dems. Control of the Senate is what makes the difference.

Dr. Frank Enstine on June 25, 2013 at 9:33 AM

Voted for Gomez this morning, gotta do what you can.

EA_MAN on June 25, 2013 at 9:22 AM

I couldn’t do it. I held my nose with Brown because he was to be the crucial 41st vote, but Gomez? If I ignored his contributions to BOTH Deval Patrick and Obama’s campaigns, and if I ignored his letter to Governor Patrick praising his ‘bold and thoughtful’ leadership whilst begging for the Senate appointment, and even if I ignored his own comments supporting Obama’s position on gun control, I damn sure cannot ignore his most recent comments about joining the Gang of Eight and working closely with Lizzie Warren in order to push through the Immigration Bill. No sir; much as I like Howie I’m not going to have my imprimatur on ANY part of this abortion.

CaptFlood on June 25, 2013 at 9:50 AM

I couldn’t do it. I held my nose with Brown because he was to be the crucial 41st vote, but Gomez? If I ignored his contributions to BOTH Deval Patrick and Obama’s campaigns, and if I ignored his letter to Governor Patrick praising his ‘bold and thoughtful’ leadership whilst begging for the Senate appointment, and even if I ignored his own comments supporting Obama’s position on gun control, I damn sure cannot ignore his most recent comments about joining the Gang of Eight and working closely with Lizzie Warren in order to push through the Immigration Bill. No sir; much as I like Howie I’m not going to have my imprimatur on ANY part of this abortion.

CaptFlood on June 25, 2013 at 9:50 AM

Well, he did say that he would support the repeal of 0bamacare, so there’s that.

Hot Gas on June 25, 2013 at 10:02 AM

I’ll walk to the voting booth, say hi to the people from church who are also poll volunteers, vote for Gomez, and…he’ll lose. BUT, at least Markey hasn’t killed anyone in his car yet and does not yet believe he is an Indian princess.

Little Boomer on June 25, 2013 at 10:04 AM

Si Se Puede! /

kirkill on June 25, 2013 at 10:09 AM

Well, he did say that he would support the repeal of 0bamacare, so there’s that.

Hot Gas on June 25, 2013 at 10:02 AM

He did, but based on his shifting positions, I have zero faith he would remain a strong voice for repeal once he actually dons the lapel pin.

Navy Seal. Business Leader. Rino Squish. Sigh…

CaptFlood on June 25, 2013 at 10:24 AM

Went to vote here in the People’s Republic of Cambridge (if MA is the USSR, this would be Red Square) this morning. When the polls opened and I gave the only vote for Gomez that place is likely to see, there were only about a half dozen voters, including me. That’s a pretty light turn-out. Given the weather is going to be 90′s today (for us that is HOT) and humid with T-storms tonight, it’s arguing for a very low turn-out.

StargazerA5 on June 25, 2013 at 10:54 AM

The only way to win is … not to play.

Ed Morrissey on June 25, 2013 at 8:46 AM

The Boston Bruins could not be reached for comment.

Del Dolemonte on June 25, 2013 at 11:49 AM

Secretary of State William F. Galvin predicted Monday that 1.6 million voters – a record low in a Massachusetts Senate race – will turnout out in Tuesday’s special US Senate election between Democrat Edward Markey and Republican Gabriel E. Gomez.

Hot Gas on June 25, 2013 at 9:16 AM

That’s less than 50% of all MA registered voters.

One excuse I heard was the Stanley Cup Finals involving the Bruins, but that is now off the board thanks to their epic choke last night.

This “election” doesn’t really mean all that much anyway; the “winner” only gets to serve out the rest (1 1/2 years?) of Lurch’s remaining term.

Del Dolemonte on June 25, 2013 at 11:51 AM

Turnout was pretty good here in Leominster when I went this morning.

Of course Brown beat Warren by 10% and Romney won by 7% here in November, so we’re atypical for Massachusetts……

oddball on June 25, 2013 at 11:55 AM

Remember folks, the only way to get rid of far leftwing lunatics in congress is to vote for far leftwing lunatics who have an R by their name.

Marley will win, which is sadly the better outcome anyway. It is still a horrible outcome as neither he nor Gomez should be anywhere near the Senate building, but the Republicans are going to continue to run candidate indistinguishable from Democrats until they get thumped hard and repeatedly.

18-1 on June 25, 2013 at 12:13 PM

It is sad that the best conservative candidate was Lynch, the Democrat House rep that lost to Malarkey.

roy_batty on June 25, 2013 at 12:32 PM

I think we’re in Miracle Max territory here, even if we do hope that Gomez can pull off the upset

Serious question…who is ‘we’? You + mainstream conservatives?

sauldalinsky on June 25, 2013 at 12:37 PM

If Gomez wins he’ll owe it to the Chicago Blackhawks, who kept the Beantown bars going late with voters drowning their sorrow and calling in to work “sick” today.

Bruno Strozek on June 25, 2013 at 12:51 PM

After watching Gomez on TV, I could not tell what the difference was between his positions and the Democrats.

IS there ANY reason, beyond slipping through a smaller primary, that Gomez claims to be Republican?

Freddy on June 25, 2013 at 12:58 PM

Those idiots in MA voted for ELIZABETH WARREN. There’s no way they’ll vote Dem-lite when they can have the real thing.
Republicans shouldn’t be afraid of making bright line distinctions between us and them. Blurring the lines just makes it easier to loose.

Iblis on June 25, 2013 at 1:14 PM

“Massachusetts voters go to the polls today.”

On the official state voter rolls, those who work for a living are outnumbered by those who vote for a living, so the results should be interesting.

dockywocky on June 25, 2013 at 1:17 PM

There was a conservative republican, he lost too Gomez in the primary. I held my nose today and voted for Gomez. The polling place was pretty empty.

birdwatcher on June 25, 2013 at 1:38 PM

I hope Gomez loses. We don’t need another pro-amnesty GOPer in the Senate. Brown was anti-amnesty and he won.

Jon0815 on June 25, 2013 at 8:03 AM

Right. Because having a Democrat is SO much better!

The right is just as infested with idiots as the left.

crosspatch on June 25, 2013 at 1:51 PM

I certainly didn’t send any money, especially after I found out he was for Gang of 8.

My view on it’s better to have any R rathar than a D has been evolving as Rubio’s disaster has unfolded. Like Chafee or Crist, you don’t really know when these folks are going to desert you. And given the politics of blue states, you have to just sort of write them off on any number of issues.

So, why spend a lot of money or time worrying about them? Vote, don’t vote…

but call any member of the House of Representatives and tell them to not allow even a distant cousin of Gang of 8 to get introduced on the House floor.

(I’m not sure about Ayotte at the moment; she stood up for the 2nd amendment, eventually, but is a bozo about this one.)

EastofEden on June 25, 2013 at 2:08 PM

After hearing him speak on Fox He should just claim what he is -a Liberal Democrat.

Bullhead on June 25, 2013 at 2:31 PM

the only thing those polls prove is that MA is not a “left-leaning” state but a certified, leftist nutjob state.

a moderate rino like gomez can’t get elected saying the things they want to hear, because the state is too far left.

jetch on June 25, 2013 at 2:37 PM

I hope Gomez loses. We don’t need another pro-amnesty GOPer in the Senate. Brown was anti-amnesty and he won.

Jon0815 on June 25, 2013 at 8:03 AM

I saw McCain giving Gomez the kiss of death over the weekend so he is likely finished.

Freddy on June 25, 2013 at 3:00 PM

I think people forget something:

In a state that is extremely liberal, where the people themselves have values that are fairly liberal, you are going to elect fairly liberal politicians no matter what the party.

If you are in Texas or Indiana or Georgia, you might not like the position of a Republican and, in fact, that politician might not fit well running in Texas or Indiana or Georgia but actually, if you are not in Massachusetts, what you think doesn’t matter. Not even a little bit. You don’t get to vote for the Massachusetts Senator, only the people from Massachusetts do.

So to you, if you don’t live in MA, you might think any Republican running is a RINO, but a politician that conforms to your idea of a Republican might lose by 30 points. What good is that? A politician that is out of step with the people of the state, be it too far left or too far right just isn’t going to get elected.

If you want to change the positions of the politicians elected by a state, you first have the change the attitudes of the people in that state. The politicians they elect are simply a reflection of those attitudes. You can’t expect someone whose positions are opposite those of the majority of the people to win an election.

Rubio supports immigration reform for the same reason. Over 70% of the voters in Florida support it. A politician that goes against the wishes of 70% of his voters doesn’t get elected regardless of what voters in Texas or Arizona or Missouri or anywhere else think.

If you aren’t from Massachusetts, your opinion of Gomez’s position on immigration reform just doesn’t matter. The only thing that matters is the position of the citizens of Massachusetts.

(Florida reference: http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/06/13/3449521/poll-71-percent-of-fla-voters.html )

crosspatch on June 25, 2013 at 3:10 PM

BlaxPac on June 25, 2013 at 9:08 AM

Del Dolemonte on June 25, 2013 at 11:49 AM

Follow the subthread. That was in response to me invoking the name of the W.O.P.R from “WarGames”.

Steve Eggleston on June 25, 2013 at 5:44 PM

It is sad that the Massachusetts Republican Party couldn’t get it together to have an anti-Amnesty Republican candidate running in this Senate race.

With all of the focus on the Senate vote on the Amnesty Bill during the past few weeks, an anti-Amnesty candidate could have tapped national support and energy to give us all a chance for another miracle in Massachusetts victory.

wren on June 25, 2013 at 6:04 PM

empty poling place- i was the only voter.

what the f is the 12 visions party? only other candidate besides the RINOtino and that old obamadouche.

mittens on June 25, 2013 at 6:41 PM

Meh. Mass. is part of the 47%. You either elect a Democrat or a Democrat who calls himself a Republican and will vote as a Democrat. Don’t waste your time.

Darin on June 25, 2013 at 6:58 PM

Some how I can’t seem to care. Get use to this feeling GOP. It’s all you’ve got left.

DFCtomm on June 26, 2013 at 5:37 AM