Open thread: Senate to vote on Gang of Eight bill at 5:30 ET; Update: Cloture passes; Update: 67-27; Update: Full roll added

posted at 4:41 pm on June 24, 2013 by Allahpundit

To be more specific, they’re voting on the bill plus the Corker/Hoeven amendment. My prediction: 72 yes votes, despite the phony border-security “triggers” and despite the fact that the bill now reeks of “Cornhusker Kickback”-style buyoffs to bring fencesitting Republicans on board. No matter. Schumer’s goal was 70 and I expect he’ll get it, which will help him with his exciting new “there’ll be mass demonstrations if the House doesn’t pass this thing” talking point.

Did you know that amnesty for illegals is a “civil rights” issue? You do now:

“This has the potential of becoming the next major civil rights movement. I could envision in the late summer or early fall if Boehner tries to bottle the bill up or put something in without a path to citizenship — if there’s no path to citizenship, there’s not a bill — but if he tries to bottle it up or do things like that, I could see a million people on the Mall in Washington,” Schumer said on CNN’s “State of the Union.”

Schumer said business leaders, evangelical leaders and CEOs of high tech companies would join the public call for action by the House on immigration.

He’s kidding himself if he thinks that summer will bring pressure on the House to pass, rather than kill, the bill, but never mind that. Just let it sink in that this tool, who’s supposed to be Republicans’ chief partner on bipartisan kumbaya immigration reform, and whom Lindsey Graham can’t praise highly enough, is already threatening to demagogue them into oblivion if they don’t do his bidding by passing the Gang of Eight bill or something very much like it. Do you suppose we’ll see this tactic again five years from now, after the bill passes, when Schumer decides that he’d like the path to citizenship to start sooner than scheduled? I don’t know if he’s got the muscle to get a million people in D.C., but he’s got something.

The vote will be carried live on C-SPAN 2, so tune in or click here. I’ve seen a bunch of posts around the blogosphere today claiming that this is a career-ender for Marco Rubio. It should be, but it isn’t. And the reason it should be isn’t just the substance of the bill itself but the deceit he practiced on this subject to get elected. But let’s be real: If we were willing to nominate John McCain, who’s every inch the amnesty shill Rubio is if not more, then we’re going to at least consider nominating Rubio, notwithstanding today’s clusterfark. (Didn’t we nominate the guy who signed RomneyCare into law too?) Rubio may well be the best retail politician in the field come 2016. He’ll argue, credibly, that he’s the GOP’s most electable candidate, which will appeal even to some righties who are angry with him now. He’s lost some conservative votes irretrievably (like mine), but as I’ve reminded you more than once lately, it’s not the people like you and me who follow politics by the hour who choose the nominee. It’s the low-information voters and the wealthy Republican Super PACs who influence them, and Rubio will have plenty to tell both of those factions. Bear in mind too that if the House ends up killing this bill, which is quite possible, then Rubio gets the best of both worlds — he’ll have proved his pro-immigration bona fides by shepherding the bill through the Senate and he’ll bear no political responsibility for the failings in practice of a bill that didn’t pass. Not only that, but once immigration is off the table, Rubio will tack hard right on some hot-button issue or issues in order to remind conservatives that he’s really one of them at heart. There’s probably no Republican in America who will work harder to pick fights with Obama than Marco Rubio come 2014. How will you feel about him after he spends 12-18 months doing nothing but throwing roundhouses at The One? All he needs to do is win the nomination, and then guys like me who choose to protest this fiasco by staying home on election day will become the Enemies of Conservatism for not holding our noses and voting for him in the interests of defeating his Democratic opponent. Rubio knows what he’s doing.

While we wait, read Jonathan Strong’s piece at the Corner quoting various former Rubio supporters on how disappointed they are. Whatever. We’ll all fall in line in due time.

Update: Once you’re done with Strong’s piece, page through the data from Pew’s new poll on immigration. Two numbers jump out at me at first glance. First, while tea partiers overwhelmingly say that illegals should be allowed to apply for legal status only after the border is under control, non-tea-party Republicans are split evenly between that position and allowing illegals to apply while border improvements are being made. That’s exactly what I mean when I say that Rubio’s career isn’t over. He’s got a big headache among conservatives, but not all Republicans are conservatives. By a long shot.

Second, when you do a deep demographic dive by age, race, gender, region, education, etc., on when illegals should be allowed to apply for legal status, only two of the 16 groups listed here show more than 50 percent support for suspending legalization until after the border is under control. One is conservative Republicans, the other is African-Americans, a rare alliance when most of the rest of the electorate is on the other side. More data here:

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Update: It occurs to me that I wasn’t 100% clear in the post that today is a vote on cloture, not on the final bill. The bill doesn’t technically pass the Senate today, but obviously if it gets 60+ for cloture, it’s going to get 51 on the final vote in a few days. I think all of our readers understand that but if any didn’t, hopefully they do now.

Update: The vote’s still open as I write this at 6:20 ET, but they’ve got more than enough to invoke cloture. I believe the tally right now is 66 votes. Schumer wants 70. Stay tuned.

Oh, by the way: CBO announced just before the vote this afternoon that Corker’s and Hoeven’s amendment will increase the cost of the bill by $40 billion. Never mind that, though; CBO isn’t allowed to estimate the entitlement costs of amnesty 30-40 years from now, so it’s not worth taking its deficit estimates on this seriously.

Update: Can’t find an updated roll as of 6:30 but TPM’s Benjy Sarlin says he thinks there are 69 yeses so far with one or both of the Republicans from Georgia, Saxby Chambliss and Johnny Isakson, somehow delayed. At least one of them is likely to vote yes. If Sarlin’s count is right, that’s the magic number for Schumer.

Here’s a list of R’s so far, via the boss emeritus. More may be coming:

Update: Reid finally cut the vote short at a few minutes before 7 p.m. ET. Final tally: 67-27, but I believe at least a few of the six senators who missed it where likely yeses. Schumer’s going to claim 70 votes in principle even if they weren’t official. I’ll post the roll as soon as it’s available.

Update: As promised, here’s the roll. The six senators who didn’t vote: Republicans Saxby Chambliss, Johnny Isakson, Mike Lee, and Mike Enzi, and Democrats Sherrod Brown and Mark Udall. I assume both Dems would have voted yes, and WaPo had both Chambliss and Isakson as “potential” yeses. Figure at least one of them would have caved. There’s your 70 votes.


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If we were willing to nominate John McCain, who’s every inch the amnesty shill Rubio is if not more, then we’re going to at least consider nominating Rubio, notwithstanding today’s clusterfark. (Didn’t we nominate the guy who signed RomneyCare into law too?)

… and how did that work out for you, both times?

Whatever. We’ll all fall in line in due time.

You said that in 2008, and 2012.

Again: … and how did that work out for you, both times?

Kent18 on June 25, 2013 at 12:56 AM

I fought the sitouts and the stayhomes here in 08 and 12.

harlekwin15 on June 24, 2013 at 4:48 PM

Bet you’re kicking yourself now, aren’t you?

Dunedainn on June 25, 2013 at 12:57 AM

I told you they wouldn’t have you backs on immigration.

Won’t and haven’t on other issues either.

Genuine on June 25, 2013 at 1:40 AM

I hope they all rot!

Delsa on June 25, 2013 at 1:53 AM

We lost America the day JFK was nominated president and when LBJ followed him.
There is no longer America as we knew it. We are a bastardized nation and we did it to ourselves by the choices we have made.
We are now all slaves to these F’ers in Washington DC

I am sick to my stomach. I actually, hate these people and am glad my parents are not alive to see this.

Delsa on June 25, 2013 at 1:58 AM

It looks very likely that tea party Republicans are going to vote in 2014′s versions of Sharon Angle, Christine O’Donnell, Todd Akin and whoever lost in Indiana in 2012 out of anger over the immigration bill. Clearly, this has been the Democrats strategy all along. And sadly, it is an exploitable strategy because the GOP waited too long to try and eject the white nativist element from the party. This is the other side of Rove’s evangelical outreach in 2004, itself an iteration of Nixon and Reagan’s southern strategy. Went to the well one too many times and now there are millions of white GOP voters who are willing to not vote for the GOP ever again over the racial politics of immigration policy. TxAnn being the perfect example. If you like the Democrats, you have to be happy today.

libfreeordie on June 24, 2013 at 11:11 PM

Since your underdeveloped interpersonal skills drive you to be antagonistic rather than pleasant to others, I’ve decided to make you my pet; so for the first time in your life you will feel included.

Now where to start…

The bolded text above is removed from reality. I don’t care about skin color, I just don’t want entitlement seeking Democrats moving into this country. As soon as these migrants are legalized, people like you will bombard them with horror stories about the evil white man, and then bribe them with entitlements paid for by the evil white man. That’s your pitch in all its racist glory.

Nixon’s Southern strategy is a myth perpetuated by liberal political scientists. Nixon’s real strategy was to try and pick off Southern states where the vote was split between Democrats Hubert Humphrey and George Wallace (racist, segregationist, big government activist). With the Democrat vote split, Nixon saw an opportunity.

http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/showelection.php?year=1968

Affirmative action was created under Nixon. So was the EPA. They were all big government hacks.

I’ve never heard Reagan associated with the “southern strategy” myth before, that’s a new one. I guess 44 states in 1980, and 49 states in 1984, were full of racist white nativists.

I wonder why that racist Ronald Reagan passed amnesty in 1986? Perhaps the utter failure and broken promises of that piece of legislation is why opponents of this new amnesty bill want the focus to be on border security first?

Nah, let’s just say that all white people who disagree with your political ideology are racists, and minorities who disagree with you are race traitors. That’s a much simpler world view for you to grasp.

Daemonocracy on June 25, 2013 at 2:04 AM

Required reading and spread around by the hundreds, each of you.

Schadenfreude on June 25, 2013 at 2:12 AM

Hey Marco before you smile like that, wipe your chin.

stormridercx4 on June 25, 2013 at 3:05 AM

I told you they wouldn’t have you backs on immigration.

Won’t and haven’t on other issues either.

Genuine on June 25, 2013 at 1:40 AM

Well, I am sure glad you told us. No one else around here was smart enough to have figured that out.

I bet the people in your life just love being around your arrogance.

davidk on June 25, 2013 at 4:57 AM

I recommend your state be the official sanctuary state for illegal immigrants.

Daemonocracy on June 25, 2013 at 12:32 AM

I actually oppose the bill….

libfreeordie on June 25, 2013 at 5:48 AM

I actually oppose the bill….

libfreeordie on June 25, 2013 at 5:48 AM

Really, why?

I loathe the bill because it completes the destruction of my country and our economy.

dogsoldier on June 25, 2013 at 6:09 AM

My take.

kingsjester on June 25, 2013 at 7:23 AM

I see that the writer for Redstate was WRONG on his roll call list I referred to earlier for Senator Burr from NC.

Burr voted NO.

Of course…that thread has disappeared from there now btw…idiots.

celt on June 25, 2013 at 7:51 AM

dogsoldier on June 25, 2013 at 6:09 AM

I oppose this bill because it places further downward pressure on American wages. Which is why Wall Street and the GOP want it so badly. Its the final straw in the rightwing orchestrated destruction of the American middle class. It began with union busting, continued with globalization or “free trade” allowing American corporations to set up shop overseas and is concluding with “immigration reform” which is merely bringing globalization into the U.S.

libfreeordie on June 25, 2013 at 9:02 AM

You’re probably the most liberal non-troll at HA.

bw222 on June 24, 2013 at 8:45 PM

This is one of those rare occasions where I’m rendered speechless…I have no idea what to make of that.

JetBoy on June 25, 2013 at 9:16 AM

Required reading and spread around by the hundreds, each of you.

Schadenfreude on June 25, 2013 at 2:12 AM

Thanks.

rrpjr on June 25, 2013 at 9:39 AM

Si Se Puede! /

kirkill on June 25, 2013 at 10:02 AM

This isn’t hard to figure out.

GOP voters will note hold these Senators accountable.

In 3-4 years these same Senators are going to be out campaigning on securing the borders because the Dems will refuse to fund the enhanced border protections. Dumb voters will vote for these GOP members because they are campaigning on border security.

Only high information voters will connect the dots that THIS bill is supposedly going to secure the border.

The GOP will still have border enforcement as a campaign issue in perpetuity. There aren’t enough educated voters to tie it back to this vote.

My advice. Start documenting all the GOP statements on how this bill secures the border. Then we can replay them in 4 years when they are campaigning on strenghtening our border security.

weaselyone on June 25, 2013 at 10:12 AM

All the states with both Senators voting yea should get all the illegals and be responsible for all the added cost.

Daemonocracy on June 25, 2013 at 12:30 AM

Or they should have all their homes invaded in the name of Open Borders Doors.

Nutstuyu on June 25, 2013 at 10:26 AM

Hey Marco before you smile like that, wipe your chin.

stormridercx4 on June 25, 2013 at 3:05 AM

I think there’s a Tumblr page dedicated to senator’s jizz shots.

Nutstuyu on June 25, 2013 at 10:28 AM

This is one of those rare occasions where I’m rendered speechless…I have no idea what to make of that.

JetBoy on June 25, 2013 at 9:16 AM

It means you bloviate with more intelligence than most trolls, but still often espouse the idiot liberal side of topics.

Nutstuyu on June 25, 2013 at 10:31 AM

I oppose this bill because it places further downward pressure on American wages. Which is why Wall Street and the GOP want it so badly. Its the final straw in the rightwing orchestrated destruction of the American middle class. It began with union busting, continued with globalization or “free trade” allowing American corporations to set up shop overseas and is concluding with “immigration reform” which is merely bringing globalization into the U.S.

libfreeordie on June 25, 2013 at 9:02 AM

…conveniently ignoring La Raza’s and the left’s Cloward-Piven culpability in politically enabling this monstrosity.

Typical slavenowordie agitprop.

ebrown2 on June 25, 2013 at 10:48 AM

I oppose this bill because it places further downward pressure on American wages. Which is why Wall Street and the GOP want it so badly.

libfreeordie on June 25, 2013 at 9:02 AM

I agree, yet you smear conservatives and Republicans not connected to big business and Wall Street as “white nativists”. You’re doing exactly what crony capitalist GOP hacks like Vince and Linda McMahon are doing with the WWE.

Daemonocracy on June 25, 2013 at 12:06 PM

Marco, you must be a closet dumbass. Anything that makes that slime Schumer put on his slimy grin is entirely suspect.

ultracon on June 25, 2013 at 1:39 PM

libfreeordie on June 25, 2013 at 9:02 AM

I agree with you. ! So why are the unions behind it?

There are greedy subsets within each ideology it seems.

dogsoldier on June 25, 2013 at 1:46 PM

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