Melissa Harris-Perry’s promos are tough to beat but give credit for effort to Alex Wagner, formerly of the Center for American Progress and HuffPo and now a member of the daytime “news bloc” on MSNBC. Noah Rothman seems mildly offended — and his point about broad public support for border enforcement is well taken, and correct — but c’mon. How can you take this seriously enough to be angered by it? What possible spin on immigration could MSNBC have had, especially in 30 seconds, beside this? Good lord, not only does she refer sarcastically to “them” and “those people,” she punctuates it with air quotes just in case you’re a moron who can’t detect ironic distancing from inflection. The only way they could have laid it on thicker or made it more simplistic and self-congratulatory is if they’d set it on a campus. A promo for any product is designed to appeal to the consumer’s gut and that’s precisely what this does by insisting to liberals that their opponents are, essentially and uniformly, immoral. Nothing new. It’ll work on its target audience.
Back in reality, Fred Bauer wonders if Harry Reid’s telling the truth when he says he shouldn’t have much trouble getting to 60 votes for the Schumer/Rubio amnesty bill. Reid thinks he can hold all but three Democrats, which, combined with the four Republican votes on the Gang of Eight, means he’ll only need four more GOPers for cloture. Bauer’s take: It would be surprising if Reid’s telling the truth given that no fewer than 16 Dems voted against the last big immigration bill in 2007. On the other hand, there’s likely to be more than eight Republican votes for this thing after the dust of the floor debate settles. The Republican establishment is united behind it, even more so than in 2007, now that they’ve lost not once but twice to O with lopsided Latino majorities in favor of Democrats. GOP fencesitters who aren’t up for reelection next year will face tremendous pressure to take one for the team and vote yes. Wouldn’t surprise me if Reid loses 10-15 members of his own caucus and gets to 60 anyway with Republican support. The only real obstacle to Senate passage is how vociferous opposition to Rubio’s bill is in the House. If Goodlatte and Boehner signal that it’s DOA, then Senate fencesitters might peel out on the theory that there’s no point in voting for a bill that’s doomed to begin with. The action next month is in the Senate, but it’s really the House that’s worth watching as a predictor of whether a filibuster will work or not.