Suffolk poll puts Markey up 17 over Gomez

posted at 9:21 am on May 9, 2013 by Ed Morrissey

Two polls last week showed the race almost within in the margin of error, so the well-regarded Suffolk poll is — at least for the moment — an outlier.  On the other hand, it seems to fit a little better with what we know of the Massachusetts electorate and the candidates:

Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Edward Markey begins the early general election polling with a wide lead over Republican challenger Gabriel Gomez, according to a Suffolk University/7NEWS (WHDH-Boston) statewide poll of screened likely voters. Markey polled 52 percent, Gomez 35 percent, Twelve Visions Party Richard Heos had 1 percent, 11 percent were undecided, and 1 percent refused a response.

This is the first statewide poll conducted which includes all of the listed candidates for U.S. Senate certified for the official Massachusetts ballot. …

Markey held a 53 percent favorable rating to 30 percent unfavorable rating, while Gomez was viewed favorably by 38 percent, unfavorably by 23 percent, with a significant 32 percent indicating that they had heard of him but were undecided.

A whopping 86 percent had never heard of Heos or were undecided about him.

Markey’s criticism of Gomez for refusing to take the “People’s Pledge” limiting outside campaign spending has traction and is viewed as an important campaign issue. Some 71 percent of likely voters said it was a very or somewhat important campaign issue. Sixteen percent said that it was not very or not at all important and 12 percent didn’t know anything about the “People’s Pledge.”

Since this seems to be such an outlier in comparison to the two earlier polls, it’s worth taking a look at the methodology.  Suffolk, which is generally considered to be reasonably independent, used a sample of 500 likely voters, which is certainly acceptable for state-level polling.  Emerson (Markey +6) used 797 likely voters, a stronger sample but not huge, either.  PPP (Markey +4) surveyed 1,539 likely voters — and PPP is usually seen as something other than a disinterested observer.

Other questions on Suffolk make it appear a little more reasonable, though.  Scott Brown, who served as Senator until unseated by Elizabeth Warren, has a 52/40 favorability rating in this poll.  Only 35% were disappointed that he didn’t run in this election, however.  On the issue of splitting the seats, the Suffolk sample was equally split, with 46% seeing a benefit from having a Senator from each party and 46% disagreeing.  It doesn’t appear to be a runaway Democratic split; the D/R/I of 36/11/53 is in the ballpark of November’s 39/17/45.

Still, this has the smallest sample, which means it’s the most likely of the three to be an outlier.  With about six weeks left, we may still see some other polling in the race, and will get a better idea of whether Gomez can pull off a Scott Brownesque upset.  However, bear in mind that the well-seasoned Edward Markey is very unlikely to be Martha Coakleyesque, or even Elizabeth Warrenesque as a campaigner.


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I have faith. Gomez can do it! Gomez is the better candidate, by far. Hopefully there are enough intelligent people in that state.

bluegill on May 9, 2013 at 9:23 AM

Take a good look at the pic of Markey.

This is the pic of a Political Sh*tbag.

ToddPA on May 9, 2013 at 9:25 AM

There’s a 4th poll out today also and has Markey up by 6…

http://www.wbur.org/2013/05/09/markey-gomez-senate-poll

This aligns with PPP and Emerson.

It’s hard to say who’s right given this is a special.

dforston on May 9, 2013 at 9:27 AM

I’m gonna call it now. Markey by 11. Bookmark it and come back in six weeks.

Chris of Rights on May 9, 2013 at 9:28 AM

Brown had the Tea Party rallying behind him. Tea Party was new and looking to prove itself and saw that race as a big opportunity. Gomez isn’t going to have that kind of push behind him.

Mark1971 on May 9, 2013 at 9:29 AM

I have faith. Gomez can do it! Gomez is the better candidate, by far. Hopefully there are enough intelligent people in that state.

bluegill on May 9, 2013 at 9:23 AM

Gomez is the worst RINO this year, however, this is the same state that elects Barney Frank, crook John Tierney and American Indian Elizabeth Warren, so this state is far from intelligent.

sentinelrules on May 9, 2013 at 9:29 AM

I have faith. Gomez can do it! Gomez is the better candidate, by far. Hopefully there are enough intelligent people in that state.

bluegill on May 9, 2013 at 9:23 AM

Barney Frank
Fauxcahontas
John Kerry
Ted Kennedy

Ehhh not so much

dirtseller on May 9, 2013 at 9:31 AM

Markey makes me puke

bsinc1962 on May 9, 2013 at 9:33 AM

There’s the right way to do something and there’s the Mass way to do things; trust the people of that blue state crap-station to elect yet another in a long line of pandering liberal jackasses.

Bishop on May 9, 2013 at 9:35 AM

OT:

ISLAMABAD — Pakistan’s prime minister has decided to ban the use of air conditioners by government offices to help cope with the country’s pervasive energy shortages.

A statement issued Wednesday from Prime Minister Mir Hazar Khan Khoso’s office says the ban will go into effect on May 15 and will continue until the energy situation improves.

Pakistan faces serious shortages of electricity and natural gas.
The ban could make for a very uncomfortable summer since temperatures in Pakistan often reach 104 degrees Fahrenheit.

The prime minister also issued a summer dress code recommending light-colored, loose-fitting clothing to help combat the heat.

(Except for the women….keep those sexy toes covered)

Hee hee.

BobMbx on May 9, 2013 at 9:36 AM

There’s the right way to do something and there’s the Mass way to do things; trust the people of that blue state crap-station to elect yet another in a long line of pandering liberal jackasses.

Bishop on May 9, 2013 at 9:35 AM

“There’s the right way, the wrong way, and the Mass way.”

“Isn’t the Mass way just the wrong way?”

“Yeah, but it costs more and has a smug sense of elitism.”

makattak on May 9, 2013 at 9:40 AM

Given the ideological demographic here, this is sort of a flip from SC-1, in that Gomez has to turn out all his supporters to win a special — which is possible, due to the general apathy special elections have, absent any looming event in Congress that upsets the dynamic (like ObamaCare in 2010). But Markey just needs normal Massachusetts voting patterns even with a small turnout to win, just as Sanford simply needed anything close to normal district voting patterns to win on Tuesday. So a lead that tracks slightly above the polls showing a closer racer — in the 8-10 point area, but not a 17-point lead — would be reasonable.

jon1979 on May 9, 2013 at 9:45 AM

Barney Frank
Fauxcahontas
John Kerry
Ted Kennedy

Ehhh not so much

dirtseller on May 9, 2013 at 9:31 AM

Yeah but they elected Romney, so in Bluegill’s mind that makes them the smartest state in the union. :)

melle1228 on May 9, 2013 at 9:45 AM

I have faith. Gomez can do it! Gomez is the better candidate, by far. Hopefully there are enough intelligent people in that state.

bluegill on May 9, 2013 at 9:23 AM

Massachusetts?.. Intelligent?..
ROTFLMAO!

The_Brewer on May 9, 2013 at 9:52 AM

I have faith. Gomez can do it! Gomez is the better candidate, by far. Hopefully there are enough intelligent people in that state.

bluegill on May 9, 2013 at 9:23 AM

Harvard is there. There are many intelligent people with no wisdom.

thuja on May 9, 2013 at 9:56 AM

Get a haircut. And I thought Kerry was hard to look at.

earlgrey133 on May 9, 2013 at 9:58 AM

are there any debates scheduled?

commodore on May 9, 2013 at 10:00 AM

Not surprising, the state of Massachusetts, despite having been crucial in the birth of the Republic, has long since fallen to statism and proven itself stupid. Time and again. I have no e faith that the people of Massachusetts could do the right thing if it was the only choice they had and the answer was tattooed on their foreheads.

AZfederalist on May 9, 2013 at 10:03 AM

There’s a commercial running right now where Markey is essentially taking credit for all modern technology because he voted for the telecom split.

bsinc1962 on May 9, 2013 at 10:05 AM

If i were Gomez, I wouldn’t advertise or campaign. I’d shop for an intelligence enhancing agent to put in the water supply.

IlikedAUH2O on May 9, 2013 at 10:05 AM

We should just call him Senator Markey now.

Scott Brown had the Tea Party; blue collar appeal; a Boston accent; and wasn’t in the PE biz. The Democrats are already labeling Gomez as an evil Little Romney out to make a buck at the expense of the working and middle classes.

Punchenko on May 9, 2013 at 10:13 AM

A failed, corrupt people deserve nothing more than a Markey.

MNHawk on May 9, 2013 at 10:18 AM

Didn’t Gomez write a letter to Patrick in support of Obama?

ctmom on May 9, 2013 at 10:22 AM

85% vote the right way is better than 100% the wrong way. Is the a ever to be a bill that Markey will vote the same way that Cruz or Paul do. Gomez will vote with Cruz more times then not but even if the is a few bill that he will vote the same way as Senator Pocahontas, it is the best they can offer for a generation.

tjexcite on May 9, 2013 at 10:27 AM

A failed, corrupt people deserve nothing more than a Markey.

MNHawk on May 9, 2013 at 10:18 AM

Their gift to you as well.

roy_batty on May 9, 2013 at 10:29 AM

tjexcite on May 9, 2013 at 10:27 AM

YES!!! But don’t call it a win.

I used to preach this all the time until:

1) I hung out around here and dicovered that their are conservative solutions which make more sense than the conventional LSM preaches.

2) I realized that the theory engenders the breeding of Juan McLames and others for the media to pass off as conservatives since they have an R.

IlikedAUH2O on May 9, 2013 at 10:32 AM

We should just call him Senator Markey now.

Scott Brown had the Tea Party; blue collar appeal; a Boston accent; and wasn’t in the PE biz. The Democrats are already labeling Gomez as an evil Little Romney out to make a buck at the expense of the working and middle classes.

Punchenko on May 9, 2013 at 10:13 AM

Likely so but I am sending Gomez some $$$ anyway. A good chunk of Dems (Lynch voters) will go for Gomez as will most independents. Independents outnumber Dems & Repubs combined in MA.

roy_batty on May 9, 2013 at 10:33 AM

I ran to the polls to vote for Scotty. I sure do miss him.

I won’t vote Markey, but there’s something about this guy that tells me he just isn’t up to the job. I’ll be counted as one of the countless that stayed at home.

c.j.ammenheuser on May 9, 2013 at 10:34 AM

Likely so but I am sending Gomez some $$$ anyway. A good chunk of Dems (Lynch voters) will go for Gomez as will most independents. Independents outnumber Dems & Repubs combined in MA.

roy_batty on May 9, 2013 at 10:33 AM

Granted, it’s been awhile since I’ve seen MA numbers, but when I had last looked (which at this point is about 7 years ago), I remember the numbers being Ind: 45, Dem: 44, Rep: 11.

Stoic Patriot on May 9, 2013 at 10:39 AM

Didn’t Gomez write a letter to Patrick in support of Obama?

ctmom on May 9, 2013 at 10:22 AM

Bingo! And he donated to both Governor Deval Patrick and Obama while praising Deval’s ‘Bold and insightful leadership…’

He’s also for stricter gun control and supports the immigration reform bill.

What’s that make him? A Rhino Squish of the First Order anywhere else, but here in The Commonwealth? A staunch conservative.

CaptFlood on May 9, 2013 at 10:54 AM

I think the Commonwealth of Mass should resurrect
the Black Oldsmobile that sustained “flood damage”
quite a few years ago, and run that.

The perfect symbol for the Blithering Idiots who vote
in that state.

ToddPA on May 9, 2013 at 11:04 AM

Glad to see the Bald Avenger has returned to his true calling-analytics!

President Romney will finally get the Senate he deserves!

tommyhawk on May 9, 2013 at 11:36 AM

It would be racist to vote against Gomez. That’s the lesson I’ve learned from my betters in the Demedia.

juliesa on May 9, 2013 at 11:37 AM

that race is over, mass will go for the leftist guy for sure. if they’ll take a liar like warren over an honest, but squishy rino like brown, their fate is sealed.

I honestly don’t know how boston gets a reputation for being “strong” and tough, when all they do there is cry for their government handouts. such a helpless group of people that can’t live without assistance. they consistently vote for dishonest, immoral, self-serving politicians, clearly they’re voting for people like themselves…

{is what I think of mass clear?}

jetch on May 9, 2013 at 11:53 AM

{is what I think of mass clear?}

jetch on May 9, 2013 at 11:53 AM

Must be easy being a conservative in a deep Red state. Try walking that walk here in MA. Watch every candidate you ever voted for (with rare exception) get out-voted into oblivion. Watch your governor lie his ass off, pander to criminals, layabouts and illegal aliens, then ask YOU (who for all intents and purposes have no effective representation) to pay more taxes. Try rocking an NRA sticker on your windshield knowing that by doing so you’ve just increased the likelihood of having your ride keyed by tenfold, and that you risk having your children ostracised by their friends simply for speaking your mind at town hall.

A little respect for those of us still fighting behind enemy lines…

CaptFlood on May 9, 2013 at 1:02 PM

OK, looking at the race from deep in “flyover country” [aka "America"]; Gomez is politically opposite of every SEAL and SpecOps person I have ever met. And yes, I have met a few. From his announced statements, he would fit in well with the Leftist Democrats in the Peoples’ Republic of Boulder, Colorado.

That said, this is Massachusetts. It is an area where the electoral system has been under Democrat control for generations. Brown was an anomaly, as noted, because the Left underestimated the concept of the TEA Party. I promise that those who control the final vote totals, regardless of votes cast, will not make that mistake again.

And, one has to remember the cultural mismatch. Just as his stands conflict with his status as a SEAL here, with being SEAL a source of credibility overwhelmed by knowledge of what he believes; in Massachusetts his Leftist stands give him credibility, countered by his status as a SEAL. Being part of the evil military-industrial complex, by definition to an extent an individualist, and a willingness to do violence against all the politically correct causes just because they threaten this country is an electoral killer in a collectivist haven like Massachusetts.

Markey in a walk.

Massachusetts will get the government it deserves. They will demand it. And will blame everyone but themselves for the results when they get it.

Certain areas are lost causes. New York City, Massachusetts, Chicago, Detroit, Washington, DC, California, the Pacific Northwest. They want Big Brother’s boot in their face so long as they are told that it is “for the children”. In fact they demand it.

Subotai Bahadur on May 9, 2013 at 1:57 PM