ADP: Only 119K private-sector jobs added in April

posted at 9:21 am on May 1, 2013 by Ed Morrissey

Just before the ADP employment report was released this morning, I asked Business Insider’s Joseph Weisenthal to give me his prediction — a rather unfair request in retrospect, since the report was due in 2 minutes at that point. He graciously offered his prediction anyway:

As it turns out, Joe was almost exactly correct:

Private sector employment increased by 119,000 jobs from March to April, according to the April ADP National Employment Report® , which is produced by ADP®, a leading provider of human capital management solutions, in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis. The March report, which reported job gains of 158,000, was revised downward to 131,000 jobs.

Goods-producing employment rose by 6,000 jobs in April, its slowest pace of growth in seven months. Though it accounted for most of the weakness in goods production job growth in March, construction growth picked up in April and the industry added 15,000 jobs over the month. Meanwhile, manufacturers shed 10,000 jobs in April—the first decline in three months and the largest since September 2012.

Service-providing jobs increased by 113,000, the weakest pace of growth in seven months.
Among the service industries reported by the ADP National Employment Report,
trade/transportation/utilities had the largest gain with 29,000 jobs added over the month. Professional/business services followed, adding 20,000 jobs, and financial activities added 7,000 jobs.

Normally we put the ADP results through the 60-80% rinse cycle, but they actually missed last month even with that in mind.  Their sharp downward revision to the March numbers still puts their estimate far above the BLS figure of 88K in March.

Applying the 60-80% filter to ADP’s new numbers, that would give us a projected figure for the BLS jobs report due Friday at somewhere between 71,000 and 95,0000.  That is an ugly, ugly range — at the low end, only half of what is needed just to keep up with population growth.  And “ugly” is exactly the word CNBC uses in its headline:

Economists surveyed by Reuters expected the ADP report to show the private sector created 150,000 jobs in April, down from 158,000 in March.

“Nearly every industry has seen slower growth since the beginning of the year,” Moody’s economist Mark Zandi said on CNBC. “Smaller businesses are experiencing much weaker growth.”

Joe Weisenthal points out that manufacturing actually retreated:

The number is out and it’s weak. Analysts were looking for 150K new private sector jobs. …

This chart from the report is particularly interesting. According to ADP, manufacturing actually lost jobs!

Expect pessimism in the markets today, although most of this was probably already suspected.  Even the higher expectation of 150K from ADP was a stagnation-level prediction.  The BLS report is going to come in well short of that on Friday.  Tomorrow, we should have Gallup’s data, and can start framing expectations of the official jobs report, and perhaps more importantly, predict whether the workforce numbers are still eroding past 34-year lows.


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Weak report.

and

Is “Hrm” a real word?

hawkdriver on May 1, 2013 at 9:24 AM

The ADP number is always higher than the actual figure. If we have 2 months in a row of sub-100,000 new jobs, we’re in big trouble. It’s been a long while since the economy was that slow. That would signal a trend and not an isolated occurrence, and with Obamacare and the recent tax hikes being likely culprits, it means these lousy numbers will continue.

Doughboy on May 1, 2013 at 9:24 AM

The Friday headline will be Unemployment rate drops to 7.5%

Wigglesworth on May 1, 2013 at 9:25 AM

The Dems and the media will blame sequestration and it’s after-effects, as if government spending creates the bulk of the private sector jobs in America.

jon1979 on May 1, 2013 at 9:27 AM

That is an ugly, ugly range — at the low end, only half of what is needed just to keep up with population growth. And “ugly” is exactly the word CNBC uses in its headline:

Na. Bill Clinton said that the economy’s recovery was right around the corner at the DNC remember?

Annnnny day now…

Gatsu on May 1, 2013 at 9:28 AM

Where’s Fiona?

22044 on May 1, 2013 at 9:28 AM

Wigglesworth is probably right- with another 400K or more leaving the employment market.

michaelo on May 1, 2013 at 9:30 AM

obama doesn’t care…bringing America to its knees is what he has always intended….what a bunch of foolish voters…seeing the same thing here in Minnesota…pretty pathetic to vote for someone just because of their skin color or how grandma/grandpa voted…then you have those that want exactly what we are getting…..how many years have we heard about reparations for the blacks because of what the evil white man did …what does obamas favorite pastor preach….evil whitey, evil Jew, evil America….democrats have become the party of death…..

crosshugger on May 1, 2013 at 9:31 AM

Its all good
-dear leader

cmsinaz on May 1, 2013 at 9:31 AM

This week…college graduations all over the country…

How many newly minted BA’s and MA’s and Ph.D’s are going fight hard to snap up the first job they can find, at Chipotle, or Mickey D’s…or cashiering at Kroger’s or Safeway? [Never mentioning that they have a college degree...cuz that's what'll disqualify them.]

Land of opportunity?

Was, once.

Thanks, progressives, liberals, Obamabots….remember when it was just utterly horrible when we had 4% or 5% unemployment?

Good times.

Yep.

coldwarrior on May 1, 2013 at 9:34 AM

Clearly jobs and the economy don’t matter, we’re spending our time on guns, gays and immigration.

Tater Salad on May 1, 2013 at 9:34 AM

Is “Hrm” a real word?

hawkdriver on May 1, 2013 at 9:24 AM

Sure it is! Those are my initials, without my middle name : ). Also known as Her Royal Majesty!! Hee hee

herm2416 on May 1, 2013 at 9:36 AM

But, but we have to grab guns and do our best to cover up major screw ups. And an NBA basketball player is gay – all is well in the US according to the LSM and liberals everywhere.

If the Republicans had half a brain cell they would be pushing job recovery/creation initiatives but we only get silence from them. At least I have no idea what Republicans are focused on as far as improving the job situation in this country.

I guess we are in the grips of the definition of insanity – keep doing the same things over and over and hope for a different result.

rsherwd65 on May 1, 2013 at 9:36 AM

Unexpectedly” of course!

geojed on May 1, 2013 at 9:38 AM

Very OT, but apparently, Larry Flynt has endorsed Mark Sanford in the South Carolina senate race.

MustLoveBlogs on May 1, 2013 at 9:39 AM

Not to worry, Barry’s radical transformation will proceed undeterred.

petefrt on May 1, 2013 at 9:40 AM

SEQUESTER!@$!$%!%!%1!!11!!!!1

/Demcorats

Good Lt on May 1, 2013 at 9:40 AM

At least I have no idea what Republicans are focused on as far as improving the job situation in this country.

rsherwd65 on May 1, 2013 at 9:36 AM

+1, sadly enough.

herm2416 on May 1, 2013 at 9:41 AM

Clearly jobs and the economy don’t matter, we’re spending our time on guns, gays and immigration.

Tater Salad on May 1, 2013 at 9:34 AM

On a serious note, what exactly is Dear Leader’s plan for the economy? Has he proposed anything since he began his 2nd term?

Doughboy on May 1, 2013 at 9:41 AM

+1 tater salad @9:34

cmsinaz on May 1, 2013 at 9:42 AM

Let me be clear. This is all ‘s fault.

Chris of Rights on May 1, 2013 at 9:42 AM

So how many times has Obama done a ‘hard pivot’ to the economy, and why hasn’t he fixed it yet?

We hear a lot of excuses, blame, diversions, distractions and politicking from the White House, but no solutions.

Obama is a failure.

Good Lt on May 1, 2013 at 9:42 AM

Stupid HTML.

Let me be clear. This is all <insert latest target of Obama’s demagoguery>‘s fault.

Chris of Rights on May 1, 2013 at 9:43 AM

Sure it is! Those are my initials, without my middle name : ). Also known as Her Royal Majesty!! Hee hee

herm2416 on May 1, 2013 at 9:36 AM

Heh!

22044 on May 1, 2013 at 9:43 AM

“Obama is just trying to be noble”
He cares….he really, really does….

Electrongod on May 1, 2013 at 9:46 AM

herm2416 on May 1, 2013 at 9:36 AM

:-)

hawkdriver on May 1, 2013 at 9:47 AM

So this is what being “focused like a laser on jobs” looks like???

esh

CoffeeLover on May 1, 2013 at 9:52 AM

Clearly, it’s time for Ed to drag out the Recovery Summer pics again.

Chris of Rights on May 1, 2013 at 9:53 AM

what does obamas favorite pastor preach….evil whitey, evil Jew, evil America….

crosshugger on May 1, 2013 at 9:31 AM

Indeed.

From the link below:

President Obama’s new ‘religious tolerance’ consultant to the Pentagon, Mikey Weinstein, wants Christian military service members who openly talk about their faith in uniform to be charged with treason, which is a crime punishable by death according to military law.

http://townhall.com/columnists/susanstamperbrown/2013/05/01/this-is-what-intolerance-smells-like-n1583594

itsnotaboutme on May 1, 2013 at 9:56 AM

Clearly, it’s time for Ed to drag out the Recovery Summer pics again.
Chris of Rights on May 1, 2013 at 9:53 AM

The red head with the cell phone was forced into prostitution by global warming.

Dr. Carlo Lombardi on May 1, 2013 at 9:57 AM

Laser focus on Jobs

Grunt on May 1, 2013 at 9:59 AM

Bush on his worst day had a better economy than Obama on his best.

Good Lt on May 1, 2013 at 10:00 AM

So how many times has Obama done a ‘hard pivot’ to the economy, and why hasn’t he fixed it yet?

We hear a lot of excuses, blame, diversions, distractions and politicking from the White House, but no solutions.

Obama is a failure.

Good Lt on May 1, 2013 at 9:42 AM

That’s the problem though. He’s not even going through the motions of a hard pivot anymore. At least in his first term, he’d pay lip service to creating jobs and growing the economy(while obviously ignoring it behind the scenes). But now even publicly he’s treating it with total indifference.

Doughboy on May 1, 2013 at 10:00 AM

The red head with the cell phone was forced into prostitution by global warming.

Dr. Carlo Lombardi on May 1, 2013 at 9:57 AM

Damn. I have been wondering about her.

Chris of Rights on May 1, 2013 at 10:00 AM

Ain’t Obamanomics WONDERFUL?

GarandFan on May 1, 2013 at 10:02 AM

Have PHD
Finished postdoc
Published 3 papers
Will work for food

I hear there are jobs going begging in North Dakota.

Fenris on May 1, 2013 at 10:02 AM

Where’s Fiona?

22044 on May 1, 2013 at 9:28 AM

She’ll report for doooty on Friday, I suspect (no apologies to SecState Jean Kerry for the accent, BTW)

Steve Eggleston on May 1, 2013 at 10:04 AM

On a serious note, what exactly is Dear Leader’s plan for the economy? Has he proposed anything since he began his 2nd term?

Doughboy on May 1, 2013 at 9:41 AM

Yes.

1) Raise taxes
2) More spending
3) Repeat until successful (or economy collapses)

Sounds like a plan to me.

PetecminMd on May 1, 2013 at 10:05 AM

The red head with the cell phone was forced into prostitution by global warming.

Dr. Carlo Lombardi on May 1, 2013 at 9:57 AM

Figures she’d do under-the-table (or is that between-the-sheets) work. She doesn’t give up welfare that way.

Steve Eggleston on May 1, 2013 at 10:05 AM

Yes.

1) Raise taxes
2) More spending
3) Repeat until successful (or economy collapses)

Sounds like a plan to me.

PetecminMd on May 1, 2013 at 10:05 AM

Item 3 contains a redundancy. For Teh SCOAMT, an economic collapse is success.

Steve Eggleston on May 1, 2013 at 10:06 AM

The red head with the cell phone was forced into prostitution by global warming.

Dr. Carlo Lombardi on May 1, 2013 at 9:57 AM

Poor Fiona.

How much is she charging?

sentinelrules on May 1, 2013 at 10:10 AM

Economy 2.0

–bayam

tom daschle concerned on May 1, 2013 at 10:13 AM

And “ugly” is exactly the word CNBC uses in its headline

“Ugly” is still not the word I would choose. These ridiculous numbers have become downright offensive. And our government just plods along as though this has now become acceptable to them. A pox on them all.

lynncgb on May 1, 2013 at 10:15 AM

Get ready for ‘it’s a good first step but we still have a lot of work to do’ to be trotted out. It’s all they got.

Kissmygrits on May 1, 2013 at 10:24 AM

The Republicans need to start pounding how government regulations are KILLING business in this country.

I know the Democrats will respond that Republicans want “DIRTY AIR AND WATER! FACTORY WORKERS LOSING ARMS!11!!” but they do that anyway.

There’s a clear message that works and HAS worked: Government isn’t the solution, government is the problem.

makattak on May 1, 2013 at 10:26 AM

Give the people a clear choice. Stop it with the pale pastels. (“Well, yeah, maybe he’s not what we want, but he’s better than Obama!”)

makattak on May 1, 2013 at 10:27 AM

There’s a clear message that works and HAS worked: Government isn’t the solution, government is the problem.

makattak on May 1, 2013 at 10:26 AM

I’m from the government and I’m here to help.

Chris of Rights on May 1, 2013 at 10:28 AM

http://polination.files.wordpress.com/2013/04/2013_03-employment-in-america-gop-vs-dem.jpg

April will not be any better than March, and may in fact be worse.

ITguy on May 1, 2013 at 10:30 AM

obama is just an abject failure.

hawkdriver on May 1, 2013 at 10:36 AM

The Friday headline will be Unemployment rate drops to 7.5%

Wigglesworth on May 1, 2013 at 9:25 AM

Yeah, really sucks, doesn’t it?

obama is just an abject failure.

hawkdriver on May 1, 2013 at 10:36 AM

He’s got his perks. We’re just “speedbumps” to him.

dogsoldier on May 1, 2013 at 10:39 AM

I see the AP put a big part of the blame on “government spending cuts”.

Did they make that up themselves or did they simply take it off the White House website?

I’ve been in the markets over two decades and that’s a first.

It’s not even sophism. That implies you at least tried to make an argument.

That a tiny cut in government spending, which is dwarfed many times over by the huge amount of taxes they impose on productive people, is the cause for our terrible economy is laughable fiction.

How any human with a working brain can believe that is beyond me.

Marcus Traianus on May 1, 2013 at 10:41 AM

ITguy on May 1, 2013 at 10:30 AM

Yeah – with some of the misses identified in earning reports that just came out from major companies the job situation isn’t going to get better. Companies continue to tighten financial belts and the biggest expense, labor, will be on the chopping block first.

Expect to see claims for unemployment increase and new job opportunities decrease. Companies are in the process of trying to salvage the remainder of this year’s earnings and they will be shedding more jobs to do just that.

rsherwd65 on May 1, 2013 at 10:41 AM

Thank you President Obama.

crr6 on May 1, 2011 at 10:45 PM

‘Cuz you know someone was going to.

bigmacdaddy on May 1, 2013 at 10:47 AM

Very OT, but apparently, Larry Flynt has endorsed Mark Sanford in the South Carolina senate race.

MustLoveBlogs on May 1, 2013 at 9:39 AM

Those type of shenanigans are for April 1. Today is May Day. get it right, comrade.

mdenis39 on May 1, 2013 at 10:55 AM

At this point… what difference does it make.

Wow, that works for so many things.

LoganSix on May 1, 2013 at 11:33 AM

I love that picture, Ed. It reminds me of why I rejected the notion of “higher education”, thirty plus years ago. Leaves me feeling smug and superior.
Of course it’s ridiculous for me or anyone else to get a ‘swelled head’ over it, but dammit ….. I’m going to use this opportunity to “gloat” at my family members who constantly blew the horns of the “superiority of college grads” all those years.

. . . . . . . . G L O A T !
.
Glad I let that out … I feel relieved, or something.

Anyway … based on that guy’s sign, there’s nothing quite like a “professional student”.

listens2glenn on May 1, 2013 at 11:33 AM

We are creating a lost generation…..the kids who voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012

breffnian on May 1, 2013 at 11:38 AM

Expect pessimism in the markets today, although most of this was probably already suspected.

The stock markets which are mostly controlled by limousine liberals are not connected anymore to the real economy. This was proven in the last 5 years… They have their own scheming and scamming based on the Feds printing trillion of dollars and lending it at zero interest to the limousine liberals of Wall Street and in return these Wall Street limousine liberals will scam more people into buying Wall Street junk…

Wall Street limousine liberals are the enemy of Capitalism and Free Market… The sooner our side understand this the better… Stop defending Wall Street, they are our enemies not friends…

mnjg on May 1, 2013 at 11:43 AM

We are creating a lost generation…..the kids who voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012

breffnian on May 1, 2013 at 11:38 AM

Tell me about it; I just now managed to snag a full-time job. My siblings are in the same boat. Rumors of 1000s of jobs left unfilled aside, the employment simply Is. Not. There.

MelonCollie on May 1, 2013 at 1:41 PM

HAVE PhD
Finished 3 POSTDOCS
Published 6 Papers
Will WORK FOR FOOD

Obviously this poor sap finally realizes that college don’t qualify you to do sh!t…just puts you in deep debt

‘Nam Vet
WILL WORK FOR FOOD

Some guy carrying dis is a better hire :D

BigSven on May 1, 2013 at 1:46 PM

They’re . . . tekkin r jahbs?

Clearly jobs and the economy don’t matter, we’re spending our time on guns, tightening gun ownership restrictions, gays celebrating homosexuality and immigration. opening the southern border.

Tater Salad on May 1, 2013 at 9:34 AM

Revised & expanded. Your version didn’t reflect our awesomeness.

Axe on May 1, 2013 at 2:00 PM

verbaluce claimed yesterday that Iraq and the US are “free/freer” under Obama, no kidding.

Schadenfreude on May 1, 2013 at 2:29 PM

Only 119K private-sector jobs added in April

Jobs added or just folks hired to fill in vacancies due to attrition?

Dr. ZhivBlago on May 1, 2013 at 9:34 PM