March durable goods shows biggest decline in seven months

posted at 10:01 am on April 24, 2013 by Ed Morrissey

On Friday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will give its initial estimate of 2013Q1 GDP growth, and the news is not likely to be bright after seeing the durable-goods report for March.  Orders dropped 5.6% from February, twice as much as economists’ estimates, and capital-goods orders tanked:

New Orders. New orders for manufactured durable goods in March decreased $13.1 billion or 5.7 percent to $216.3 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down two of the last three months, followed a 4.3 percent February increase. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 1.4 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 4.7 percent. Transportation equipment, also down two of the last three months, led the decrease, $11.0 billion or 15.0 percent to $62.4 billion. This was led by nondefense aircraft and parts, which decreased $8.5 billion.

Capital goods orders, which show business investment for the near term, did even worse.  While defense orders dropped by a third — the result of the sequester, in all likelihood — non-defense orders fell by more than 10%:

Capital Goods. Nondefense new orders for capital goods in March decreased $8.3 billion or 10.6 percent to $70.2 billion. Shipments increased $1.5 billion or 2.1 percent to $71.8 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $1.5 billion or 0.3 percent to $593.7 billion. Inventories increased $0.6 billion or 0.4 percent to $176.1 billion. Defense new orders for capital goods in March decreased $2.5 billion or 33.2 percent to $5.0 billion. Shipments increased slightly or 0.1 percent to $8.4 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $3.4 billion or 2.0 percent to $163.6 billion. Inventories decreased $0.3 billion or 1.5 percent to $22.0 billion.

Even February, which had shown a 4.3% increase in durable-goods orders, saw its initial estimates pulled back a bit:

Revised February Data. Revised seasonally adjusted February figures for all manufacturing industries were: new orders, $489.3 billion (revised from $492.0 billion); shipments, $488.9 billion (revised from $489.3 billion); unfilled orders, $997.5 billion (revised from $999.7 billion); and total inventories, unchanged from $620.0 billion.

Reuters doesn’t sugar-coat the results, calling it “bad news for the economy” in its headline:

Orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods recorded their biggest drop in seven months in March and a gauge of planned business spending rose modestly, adding to signs of a slowdown in factory activity.

Durable goods orders slumped 5.7 percent as demand fell almost across the board, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday. The drop last month in orders for these goods, which range from toasters to aircraft, followed a revised 4.3 percent increase in February.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected orders to fall 2.8 percent from a previously reported 5.6 percent increase. Excluding transportation, orders declined 1.4 percent after falling 1.7 percent the prior month.

However, they also noticed a bright spot in the data … or at least a less-gloomy spot:

Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, edged up 0.2 percent.

Orders for the so-called core capital goods had dropped 4.8 percent in February and economists had expected a 0.4 percent increase last month.

Core capital goods shipments, used to calculate equipment and software spending in the gross domestic product report, rose 0.3 percent. That followed a 1.2 percent rise in February, suggesting business spending would again contribute to growth in the first quarter.

Perhaps Q2 looks a little brighter than Q1, but then again, that’s what people thought about Q1 as compared to 2012Q4′s initial estimate of -0.1% annualized GDP change.  That ended up being +0.4% by the final estimate last month, and that could look relatively cheery by Friday.


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Twice as bad as expected.

At one low price.

Electrongod on April 24, 2013 at 10:02 AM

America! Thank you for Obama. How “free” are your goods now?

Oil Can on April 24, 2013 at 10:03 AM

Lean Forward, right into the grave.

Who says a community organizer with zero experience in anything other than smoking weed doesn’t have the chops to oversee a $16 trillion economy?

Bishop on April 24, 2013 at 10:03 AM

Pffttt…the economy?

Sure, it has tanked, again.

But, we’ve got foreign Tea Party radicals, veritable out of control Libertarians, blowing up the streets of Boston…

That economy stuff…sooo 2012.

coldwarrior on April 24, 2013 at 10:05 AM

Our economy continues to show improvement! Oh………Don’t believe every thing you read in the newspapers or see on TV?

Herb on April 24, 2013 at 10:05 AM

Housing prices are up! The Government is again pumping air into the market to assure that our children will never be able to afford what we could afford at their age.

unclesmrgol on April 24, 2013 at 10:07 AM

Those Damn Headwinds!!

ToddPA on April 24, 2013 at 10:10 AM

Thank you enlightened voters . . . you really stuck it to us this time.

rplat on April 24, 2013 at 10:11 AM

Orders dropped 5.6% from February, twice as much as economists’ estimates,

So once again it’s unexpectedly?

rbj on April 24, 2013 at 10:11 AM

Wait until ocare and Internet tax kick in .

Lucano on April 24, 2013 at 10:11 AM

Ain’t Obamanomics WONDERFUL?

GarandFan on April 24, 2013 at 10:12 AM

Who says a community organizer with zero experience in anything other than smoking weed doesn’t have the chops to oversee a $16 trillion economy?

Bishop on April 24, 2013 at 10:03 AM


Let’s be fair …

The SCOAMF has done everything in his power to boost sales of one of the MOST durable goods to unprecedented levels.

Two year order backlogs on AR-15′s and ammunition are probably the only really strong sectors if one digs down into the details.

;->

PolAgnostic on April 24, 2013 at 10:12 AM

rbj on April 24, 2013 at 10:11 AM

Guess we got to expect the unexpected.

coldwarrior on April 24, 2013 at 10:13 AM

I had to bite my tongue at a recent sales meeting. The GSM couldn’t figure out why the market had started to slow again. It was all I could do not to blurt out “you do know who’s in the White House, don’t you?”

Hill60 on April 24, 2013 at 10:15 AM

Orders dropped 5.6% from February, twice as much as economists’ estimates, and capital-goods orders tanked:

Obviously an anomoly brought about by a combination of factors….

a) Hurricane Sandy hitting the East coast in October.

b) Sequestration.

c) The Boston Marathon bombing.

d) The economy the rat-eared coward inherited in January 2009.

Happy Nomad on April 24, 2013 at 10:17 AM

Wait until ocare and Internet tax kick in .

Lucano on April 24, 2013 at 10:11 AM

On a serious note, do we have any indication as to how many votes there are for the internet sales tax bill in the House?

Doughboy on April 24, 2013 at 10:17 AM

Durable goods? Poppycock!

Guns! Gays! Amnesty!

Polish Rifle on April 24, 2013 at 10:18 AM

Let’s cheer bad economic news.

That’s true conservatism.

Seven Seas on April 24, 2013 at 10:18 AM

Who says a community organizer with zero experience in anything other than smoking weed doesn’t have the chops to oversee a $16 trillion economy?

Bishop on April 24, 2013 at 10:03 AM

Not fair at all. I have heard that he can also sing a mighty fine Adthan.

slickwillie2001 on April 24, 2013 at 10:18 AM

How long will it take them to revise this upward by eliminating some of the negative data just like forgetting some of the long term unemployed? This same bunch will end up with a budget surplus in a couple of years.

Kissmygrits on April 24, 2013 at 10:19 AM

And it was so unexpected!

Bob's Kid on April 24, 2013 at 10:20 AM

That Obama engine is hitting on all cylinders. Gotta give him credit for doing exactly what he said he do. Fundamentality change our nation and then some.

DanMan on April 24, 2013 at 10:20 AM

d) The economy the rat-eared coward inherited in January 2009. 2013.

Happy Nomad on April 24, 2013 at 10:17 AM

Yes, his base is that stupid.

slickwillie2001 on April 24, 2013 at 10:20 AM

Who says a community organizer with zero experience in anything other than smoking weed doesn’t have the chops to oversee a $16 trillion economy?

Bishop on April 24, 2013 at 10:03 AM

With a question like that, I can only assume you are trying to start a HA stampede.

Happy Nomad on April 24, 2013 at 10:21 AM

But FT reported the other day that the BEA is going to revise how they calculate GDP (again) and the the new calculations will show the economy in a whole new way! I’m serious. I saw this. All I could do is shake my head.

Reality is soooooo inconvenient.

Ed, nice report.

If you folks haven’t looked at the consumer metrics institute’s website, you might want to. They show the real math for computing GDP and expose the fact that the BEA is using bad numbers to make things look rosy. They use annualized deflators, instead of the quarterly deflators, which makes the GDP “headline print value” higher.

There is a nice article there showing how long it took them to accurately work out the GDP for Q1 2008. It took forty months for the BEA crew. Yup you read that correctly: four zero months.

Of course, it’s difficult to get it right. Math is hard.

dogsoldier on April 24, 2013 at 10:23 AM

Our economy continues to show improvement! Oh………Don’t believe every thing you read in the newspapers or see on TV?

Herb on April 24, 2013 at 10:05 AM

And your bank account balance is a lie too.

Happy Nomad on April 24, 2013 at 10:24 AM

I had to bite my tongue at a recent sales meeting. The GSM couldn’t figure out why the market had started to slow again. It was all I could do not to blurt out “you do know who’s in the White House, don’t you?”

Hill60 on April 24, 2013 at 10:15 AM

.
You might ask him what long term impact he foresees from this widespread trend:

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-04-24/rba-set-to-invest-foreign-currency-reserves-in-china-lowe-says

“By opening their capital markets to central banks like Australia’s, China is taking a step in liberalization for foreign investors,” said Martin Whetton, “… The bigger question will be if this is followed by investments from other central banks.”

The move is “another important milestone in deepening our financial and economic linkages with China,” Australia’s Treasurer Wayne Swan said in an emailed statement. “Strong financial linkages between our economies will ensure that Australia is even better positioned to benefit from the shift in global economic growth towards Asia.”

The move reflects “greater diversity of our investments”

The Australian dollar became the third major currency to directly trade with the yuan on April 10, after the greenback and Japan’s yen.

“One current example of this is related to the very high value of the Australian dollar, which is clearly making for difficult conditions in certain parts of the Australian economy,” he said. “The quantitative easing that has taken place in a number of countries is having a significant effect on exchange rates of freely floating currencies.”

.
There are a lot of other countries that have negotiated direct currency trade agreements with the yuan.

A GSM should be able to explain how loss of reserve currency status for teh USD would effect your company’s bottom line.

PolAgnostic on April 24, 2013 at 10:26 AM

HopeLessNess/ChangeLessNess!

canopfor on April 24, 2013 at 10:27 AM

Green Shoots

Up Twinkles

trs on April 24, 2013 at 10:29 AM

Let’s cheer bad economic news.

That’s true conservatism.

Seven Seas on April 24, 2013 at 10:18 AM

There’s a difference between noticing that the numbers are tanking, and pretending that they’re soaring.

If that’s “cheering”, so was everyone who figured out that the Tsarnaev brothers were more probably Islamists than Tea Party activists.

It’s one thing for David Sirota to prefer his delusions to reality. It’s an entirely different thing for the President and his clique to do so, and base policies on their delusions rather than what’s really happening in the economy.

clear ether

eon

eon on April 24, 2013 at 10:30 AM

Well, I think we’ve moved into the plastic region of system failure. It might be long or short but when it does snap, it’s going to be brutal.

Dusty on April 24, 2013 at 10:31 AM

My project today :
Speaker.gov/

Lucano on April 24, 2013 at 10:34 AM

Well, I think we’ve moved into the plastic region of system failure. It might be long or short but when it does snap, it’s going to be brutal.

Dusty on April 24, 2013 at 10:31 AM

Others are thinking about what they call a ‘long slide’ where there are no sudden events, we just slowly slide into becoming a third-world country where corruption and inefficiency destroys everything.

slickwillie2001 on April 24, 2013 at 10:35 AM

Just a blip on the radar, a ‘correction’ of market forces. It doesn’t mean there still isn’t slow and steady growth. But the Republicans are going to politicize it, even though it’s their rich one-percenter friends who are trying to stymie what President Obama is doing for the good of American prosperity for all.

(my fingers just poked me in the eye for making them type that)

Liam on April 24, 2013 at 10:35 AM

It’s one thing for David Sirota to prefer his delusions to reality. It’s an entirely different thing for the President and his clique to do so, and base policies on their delusions rather than what’s really happening in the economy.

eon on April 24, 2013 at 10:30 AM

I agree with everything above except for one minor point. The rat-eared coward bases policies on a partisan agenda and not the lies they tell about our “booming” economy. The whole idea right now is to so demonize the GOP that they win back the House and keep the Senate in 2014. It doesn’t matter what happens to the economy. It’s all about the power.

Happy Nomad on April 24, 2013 at 10:36 AM

Just a blip on the radar, a ‘correction’ of market forces. It doesn’t mean there still isn’t slow and steady growth. But the Republicans are going to politicize it, even though it’s their rich one-percenter friends who are trying to stymie what President Obama is doing for the good of American prosperity for all.

Liam on April 24, 2013 at 10:35 AM

Sounds like you are becoming a self-radicalized troll. ;0

Happy Nomad on April 24, 2013 at 10:37 AM

Transportation equipment, also down two of the last three months, led the decrease, $11.0 billion or 15.0 percent to $62.4 billion. This was led by nondefense aircraft and parts, which decreased $8.5 billion.

That is a very key point with these numbers, Boeing’s orders have outright collapsed this year. Don’t worry, Obama is directly involved since it relates to Boeing going with an Obama greenie initiative and using a lot more battery instead of jet fuel for power in their planes. If I’m not mistaken these are the same ones that were seen on fire under water during Hurricane Sandy.

There is a nice article there showing how long it took them to accurately work out the GDP for Q1 2008. It took forty months for the BEA crew. Yup you read that correctly: four zero months.

Of course, it’s difficult to get it right. Math is hard.

dogsoldier on April 24, 2013 at 10:23 AM

I see someone isn’t familiar with either econometrics or statistics. Long story short, yes the math is very hard and yes it takes years to come up with final numbers for the most part. Although a lot of that is due to the 5 year methodology cycle the BEA is on. Fun fact, even after 40 months it still isn’t “accurate”.

jarodea on April 24, 2013 at 10:38 AM

Let’s cheer bad economic news.

That’s true conservatism.

Seven Seas on April 24, 2013 at 10:18 AM

We’re not cheering. We’re saying I told you so to the Obama drones.

Doughboy on April 24, 2013 at 10:41 AM

Concept of the day from the Chris Plante show:

Barak Hussein Obama has launched a harm offensive on America.

Happy Nomad on April 24, 2013 at 10:41 AM

Sounds like you are becoming a self-radicalized troll. ;0

Happy Nomad on April 24, 2013 at 10:37 AM

Liberals are all too easy to predict.

Liam on April 24, 2013 at 10:41 AM

“Why all the long faces ? ” – President Obama

Jabberwock on April 24, 2013 at 10:44 AM

Let’s cheer bad economic news.

That’s true conservatism.

Seven Seas on April 24, 2013 at 10:18 AM

Let’s make incorrect statements in posts we type on Conservative
websites, to verify that we are Blithering idiots
with catchy screen names like Seven SeasBrain Cells

ToddPA on April 24, 2013 at 10:44 AM

There are a lot of other countries that have negotiated direct currency trade agreements with the yuan.

A GSM should be able to explain how loss of reserve currency status for teh USD would effect your company’s bottom line.

PolAgnostic on April 24, 2013 at 10:26 AM

Probably not much since the reserve status of the dollar is predicated on the US being the largest and most liquid financial market in the world and also the expertise, organization, and willingness of the Federal Reserve to backstop its currency. The direct currency trade agreements make sense for many countries trade wise (why go yen to dollar to yuan instead of just yen to yuan?, at least when neither currency is a basket case).

Still, a large open liquid market is necessary and while China may become large it doesn’t meet the other 2 requirements, and also as was seen in 2008 the Federal Reserve is the only central bank with the necessary skills to backstop the world economy (the 2008 crisis actually started with Euro banks in East Asia but neither East Asian central banks nor the ECB were able to react which caused it shift to US banks and garnered immediate Fed action).

jarodea on April 24, 2013 at 10:45 AM

Whodathunk it was so easy to improve the economy. Just redefine GDP and voila! – Record wheat harvests.

tommyboy on April 24, 2013 at 10:45 AM

All I can say is “God Bless Texas”, can you imagine how bad the economy would be doing if we weren’t doing so well?

Tater Salad on April 24, 2013 at 10:50 AM

Every time I see a report like this, I just look at our family- we haven’t bought any new clothes, no vacations, we really need a new car, but that is not happening, no new gadgets, no land line, no cable, no money for savings, etc, etc, and we are a pretty typical middle class family. I’m not whining, it is just we used to do all of those things, and now they are out of the budget. My husband has a great job, thank God, and I pull in some income with my art, but it is all going to taxes and necessities. We can’t be alone. My teenage son keeps saying conservatives should pull out of the economy altogether and start our own system of bartering. I was intrigued, and so I looked it up- the feds tax bartering.

Kristamatic on April 24, 2013 at 10:52 AM

Let’s cheer bad economic news.

That’s true conservatism.

Seven Seas on April 24, 2013 at 10:18 AM

Like clockwork, everytime liberal policies fail they begin to blame someone else. It reminds me of Reagan’s great line “when central planners plans fail, they continue planning”.

Tater Salad on April 24, 2013 at 10:53 AM

I see someone isn’t familiar with either econometrics or statistics. Long story short, yes the math is very hard and yes it takes years to come up with final numbers for the most part. Although a lot of that is due to the 5 year methodology cycle the BEA is on. Fun fact, even after 40 months it still isn’t “accurate”.

jarodea on April 24, 2013 at 10:38 AM

.
Simple rule of business, any number that takes 40 months to generate is of no practical value.

Simple rule of politics, any number that takes 40 months to generate is a lie.

PolAgnostic on April 24, 2013 at 10:54 AM

And the market soars. Reality doesn’t matter.

“We’re all feedin’ each other, maaan. This is how it should work!…we don’t need jobs maaan! Stay away from the brown acid, maaan“.

/

Mimzey on April 24, 2013 at 10:54 AM

More taxes! We need more taxes!
Wait…we will be getting more taxes!
Thank you, oh worst President the US has ever had.

albill on April 24, 2013 at 10:59 AM

The markets are up on bad news because everyone expects the Fed to continue it’s weak dollar policy.

Tater Salad on April 24, 2013 at 11:00 AM

I know what will fix this, “more people on government assistance and higher taxes on those who do work”.

Nevermind, that’s what we’ve been doing and it isn’t working.

Tater Salad on April 24, 2013 at 11:01 AM

Kristamatic on April 24, 2013 at 10:52 AM

you ain’t alone, our household income is down about 30% since 2009, these prime earning years are not getting it done but I worry more for my kids than me. At least our stuff is paid for.

DanMan on April 24, 2013 at 11:04 AM

Let’s blame negative cootie rays emanating from Republican heads for my President being such a clusterfluke.

That’s true liberalism.

Seven Seas on April 24, 2013 at 10:18 AM

FTFY

MNHawk on April 24, 2013 at 11:07 AM

Choom!

Philly on April 24, 2013 at 11:12 AM

Probably not much since the reserve status of the dollar is predicated on the US being the largest and most liquid financial market in the world and also the expertise, organization, and willingness of the Federal Reserve to backstop its currency. The direct currency trade agreements make sense for many countries trade wise (why go yen to dollar to yuan instead of just yen to yuan?, at least when neither currency is a basket case).

Still, a large open liquid market is necessary and while China may become large it doesn’t meet the other 2 requirements, and also as was seen in 2008 the Federal Reserve is the only central bank with the necessary skills to backstop the world economy (the 2008 crisis actually started with Euro banks in East Asia but neither East Asian central banks nor the ECB were able to react which caused it shift to US banks and garnered immediate Fed action).

jarodea on April 24, 2013 at 10:45 AM


Ahhhh, a “delusionalist” …

Your first sentence is based on fallacies:

1)What predicates a reserve currency today – not 30 years ago is what matters.
2)The “US being the largest and most liquid financial market in the world” is false to fact re: Lehman Brothers and the 2008 global meltdown. If what you say WAS true, the TBTF banks would never have needed ANY help.
3) The “willingness of the Federal Reserve to backstop its currency” is laughable. The Federal Reserve is using QE to devalue the dollar, increase the value of other currencies and, in the process, incentivizing the world to bypass the USD and the inflation it is causing in their economies.

Let’s cut to your central “Probably not much” premise:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703313304576132170181013248.html

It will be a considerable convenience—and competitive advantage—for them to be able to do that business in yuan or euros rather than having to go through the dollar.

In this new monetary world, moreover, the U.S. government will not be able to finance its budget deficits so cheaply, since there will no longer be as big an appetite for U.S. Treasury securities on the part of foreign central banks.

PolAgnostic on April 24, 2013 at 11:13 AM

George W. Bush still at fault for bad economic news.
/LSM

Khun Joe on April 24, 2013 at 11:15 AM

Let’s cheer bad economic news.

That’s true conservatism.

Seven Seas on April 24, 2013 at 10:18 AM

Meh, so let’s put our head in the sand and ignore bad economic news. That’s true modern liberalism.

At what point then can we finally and openly criticize the Democrat playbook that’s been enacted since 2007? Higher taxes, more regulations, stifling rules, mysterious decisions, and questionable programs which even you should be able to agree has resulted in the worst economic recovery from a recession in more than a lifetime?

smfic on April 24, 2013 at 11:17 AM

All I can say is “God Bless Texas”, can you imagine how bad the economy would be doing if we weren’t doing so well?

Tater Salad on April 24, 2013 at 10:50 AM

Well you are in luck, that can be figured out and I just did.

Jobs created since the mid 2010:

Texas – 898k
USA – 5,200k

Job growth:

Texas – 8.8%
USA – 4%
USA w/o Texas – 3.6%

Economic growth (2011 is the latest for states):

Texas – 3.3%
USA – 1.5%
USA w/o Texas – 1.35%

So eh, nice a large state is doing a good deal better but Texas is not quite the nation saver it’s made out to be by some.

Simple rule of business, any number that takes 40 months to generate is of no practical value.

Simple rule of politics, any number that takes 40 months to generate is a lie.

PolAgnostic on April 24, 2013 at 10:54 AM

First, this isn’t business, second this happens all the time even Bush saw his economic numbers revised higher, and third why are you paying attention to useless numbers? In reality, the number is simply refined and continues to be as methodology and new info is updated. Heck, just saw they are still revising (in tiny amounts) 1929 economic figures.

jarodea on April 24, 2013 at 11:18 AM

PolAgnostic on April 24, 2013 at 11:13 AM

Well I’m clearly delusional so I probably wasting my time I could be using to hide in a corner with a tin foil hat, but as I noted and it notes yes it is fine for stable major currencies to do business in their own currency. Even so, the world still needs a large open liquid place properly backstopped to plop money since not having one would raise financial costs more than the gains of direct currency trade. The amount of trade being talked about here is tiny anyways compared to the amount of money that rolls in and out of the US financial system on a daily basis.

Though yes it will have some effect on the liquidity of the US financial system and will probably raise bond rates a little here. Nothing wrong with that, we became too much of the world’s reserve currency recently and like a Spaniard or Greek offered negative real rate Euro loans we couldn’t resist piling on the debt. Some reality would be nice.

jarodea on April 24, 2013 at 11:24 AM

These circumstances are what true Marxists love, those who infest colleges and have been ‘teaching’ for fifty years. Marxism is never about the wealthy. Marx aimed to see the middle class destroyed, with a tiny elite ruling over the vast majority of workers. We are well on our way to that, all of us except the leaders finally having a level playing field and achieving equality.

How long have we heard it’s somehow unfair one guy can buy a Cadillac when another guy can only afford a decade-old clunker? There’s no ‘equality’ there, and that’s not right.

The same with food, or a house, or anything else you can think of. Since equality can never be achieved by everyone getting up in life, the only way is to bring those who ‘have’ down a few notches. This runs along with the new ‘white privilege’ line being pushed. If minority families can’t have the imagined-by-liberals things white have, then the whites have to have their things taken until they’re where they should be: at the lowest common denominator.

The family down the street can’t afford steak twice a week when you can? Well, that has to stop; you’re not allowed to have it any more than they are able.

They can’t afford to save for retirement when you can? Well, that’s not fair. So, government ‘should’ step in and manage all those plans with all that money, to be sure those underprivileged people have a fair shot, too.

This what we’re heading for. News like this makes die-hard Marxists smile. It means ‘social justice and balance’ are on the way, that the privileged few are at last experiencing what the less-fortunate have for a long time.

It’s about time, so they better get used to it.

Liam on April 24, 2013 at 11:35 AM

Excellent! All going according to plan. Too much consuming goin’ on around here, ’cause at some point you’ve go too much stuff.

hawkeye54 on April 24, 2013 at 11:47 AM

On Friday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will give its initial estimate of 2013Q1 GDP growth, and the news is not likely to be bright after seeing the durable-goods report for March.

Nah, they’re working on new ways to calculate it, you see.

It’s the government; if they don’t like the number, they simply report one they do like – whatever fits the meme.

Keep spreading the pixie dust – the economy is better, damnit, and stop saying it isn’t!

Midas on April 24, 2013 at 11:59 AM

Jobs created since the mid 2010:

Texas – 898k
USA – 5,200k

Job growth:

Texas – 8.8%
USA – 4%
USA w/o Texas – 3.6%

Economic growth (2011 is the latest for states):

Texas – 3.3%
USA – 1.5%
USA w/o Texas – 1.35%

So eh, nice a large state is doing a good deal better but Texas is not quite the nation saver it’s made out to be by some.

jarodea on April 24, 2013 at 11:18 AM

Interesting. A single state that is functioning at more than *twice* the national average, and influences the entire country’s figures by 10% in *both* of those categories isn’t significant in your book?

Midas on April 24, 2013 at 12:03 PM

Simple rule of business, any number that takes 40 months to generate is of no practical value.

Simple rule of politics, any number that takes 40 months to generate is a lie.

PolAgnostic on April 24, 2013 at 10:54 AM

I agree completely.

dogsoldier on April 24, 2013 at 12:05 PM

WH announces James Hansen, formerly of NASA, will be joining the Obama Administration team of economic advisers. “Mr. Hansens’ skills will be put to use in finding ways to hide the economic decline, referred to as “The Obama Economic Ice Age”.

BobMbx on April 24, 2013 at 12:22 PM

Interesting. A single state that is functioning at more than *twice* the national average, and influences the entire country’s figures by 10% in *both* of those categories isn’t significant in your book?

Midas on April 24, 2013 at 12:03 PM

I said save the nation, not that it wasn’t significantly outperforming. Texas is not that far away from being 10% of the nation (which would be like 5 states) so doing twice as well as the nation basically knocks 10% off the national growth rate.

It’s not like the nation is struggling but getting by at 4% job growth over almost 3 years but 3.6% is just complete and utter bottom of the barrel depression. Nor is it like we would be in game over mode with 1.35% GDP growth but thanks be to Texas that we got up to 1.5% and will live to see another year.

Also, 2011 was the best year of 2010, 2011, and 2012 for Texas relative to the nation when it comes to job growth. I can’t find 2010 GSP figures and 2012 aren’t out yet but I would suspect they largely follow along.

I agree completely.

dogsoldier on April 24, 2013 at 12:05 PM

As do I, but of course neither of his statements deals with economic data so it’s irrelevant anyhow.

jarodea on April 24, 2013 at 12:23 PM

Interesting. A single state that is functioning at more than *twice* the national average, and influences the entire country’s figures by 10% in *both* of those categories isn’t significant in your book?

Midas on April 24, 2013 at 12:03 PM

.
If he answers your question, let’s next posit to him that Texas’s actual impact was greater than 10%, since significantly above normal growth in Texas undoubtedly had an effect on manufacturers and service providers outside of Texas providing goods and services that would not otherwise have been needed.

Wrapping his mind around that idea should keep him busy for a day or two.

PolAgnostic on April 24, 2013 at 12:29 PM

I said save the nation, not that it wasn’t significantly outperforming. Texas is not that far away from being 10% of the nation (which would be like 5 states) so doing twice as well as the nation basically knocks 10% off the national growth rate.

It’s not like the nation is struggling but getting by at 4% job growth over almost 3 years but 3.6% is just complete and utter bottom of the barrel depression. Nor is it like we would be in game over mode with 1.35% GDP growth but thanks be to Texas that we got up to 1.5% and will live to see another year.

Also, 2011 was the best year of 2010, 2011, and 2012 for Texas relative to the nation when it comes to job growth. I can’t find 2010 GSP figures and 2012 aren’t out yet but I would suspect they largely follow along.

*snip*

As do I, but of course neither of his statements deals with economic data so it’s irrelevant anyhow.

jarodea on April 24, 2013 at 12:23 PM


Facts just elude you, don’t they?

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/release?rid=140

U.S. Total Gross Domestic Product 2011: 14,981,020 Millions of Dollars

Total Gross Domestic Product for Texas 2011: 1,149,908 Millions of Dollars

Offhand comparisons based on personal opinion: Worthless

Economic value of knowing what is of no value and what is a lie: Priceless

PolAgnostic on April 24, 2013 at 12:44 PM

If he answers your question, let’s next posit to him that Texas’s actual impact was greater than 10%, since significantly above normal growth in Texas undoubtedly had an effect on manufacturers and service providers outside of Texas providing goods and services that would not otherwise have been needed.

Wrapping his mind around that idea should keep him busy for a day or two.

PolAgnostic on April 24, 2013 at 12:29 PM

Indeed I already considered it, wait is it Friday already? Where did the last 2 days… well anyways I’ll look into that later. 10% is the shift in 2011 thanks to Texas higher growth not Texas’ actual impact which was 19% of GDP growth in 2011. In 2010, found the 2010 GSP figures (should have just gone right to economagic from the start), Texas accounted for 14% of GDP growth. For 2010 and 2011 it is 16%. This is from a state that accounts for about 9% of US GDP. Yes it is great but it is not a nation saver.

As for the effect of Texas causing growth elsewhere, yes that happens, but then again elsewhere causes growth for Texas as well (e.g., a company I did contract work for for last year in Ohio grew 20% and one of their biggest suppliers is in Texas). Though with Texas’ higher growth the net would be a benefit to Texas but nothing that substantively changes things. We wouldn’t be living in Obamavilles but for Texas.

jarodea on April 24, 2013 at 12:49 PM

Facts just elude you, don’t they?

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/release?rid=140

U.S. Total Gross Domestic Product 2011: 14,981,020 Millions of Dollars

Total Gross Domestic Product for Texas 2011: 1,149,908 Millions of Dollars

Offhand comparisons based on personal opinion: Worthless

Economic value of knowing what is of no value and what is a lie: Priceless

PolAgnostic on April 24, 2013 at 12:44 PM

Well, that’s a long way of saying “you drove a needle straight into my nerve”.

Anyways, your “facts” are off, you have current US GDP coupled with 2005 chained real Texas GSP.

jarodea on April 24, 2013 at 12:54 PM

Yet another bad economic story with the oh-so-appropriate “Obama and the big screw” picture.

ITguy on April 24, 2013 at 12:57 PM

I agree with everything above except for one minor point. The rat-eared coward bases policies on a partisan agenda and not the lies they tell about our “booming” economy. The whole idea right now is to so demonize the GOP that they win back the House and keep the Senate in 2014. It doesn’t matter what happens to the economy. It’s all about the power.

Happy Nomad on April 24, 2013 at 10:36 AM

True, but also remember that The One and his enablers have their own ideas about “how an economy really works”, born of equal parts Fabian socialism and Chicago cronyism, plus a heaping helping of Green absolutism. This is why whenever one of their great ideas fails to work, they simply demand MORE!!- more spending on it, more taxes to fund the spending, and more convoluted and bizarre regulations to force reality to bend to their will.

At no point do they stop and say, “OK, that didn’t work, so let’s try some other way to get what we want”. Which is what a smart “political operative” knows that he’s going to have to do, somewhere along the line.

As Eric Hoffer points out, True Believers are invariably passionate, often ruthless, and can tend toward being genocidal, but they are seldom “smart political operatives”. And the Obama Administration’s actions, from start to finish, have been those of True Believers.

They are the acts of delusional pseudo-religious zealots, not cunning political operatives with a Secret Plan. They may be that, as well (or at least tell themselves that they are), but they are simply unable to resist the urge to follow their dogmas no matter what. Like the Japanese high command in WW II, they have The Plan, and rather than change it they will ride it down in flames.

As I have said before, as disastrous as this Administration has been for this country, and the world as a whole, it would be far worse if they were actually competent.

If we must have an America-hating, civilization-loathing, narcissistic group of neo-Luddites in charge, it is better for the rest of humanity that they at least aren’t smart enough to know what the Hell they are doing.

cheers

eon

eon on April 24, 2013 at 1:29 PM

If we must have an America-hating, civilization-loathing, narcissistic group of neo-Luddites in charge, it is better for the rest of humanity that they at least aren’t smart enough to know what the Hell they are doing.

cheers

eon

eon on April 24, 2013 at 1:29 PM

That’s small comfort, eon.

dogsoldier on April 24, 2013 at 1:36 PM

I see someone isn’t familiar with either econometrics or statistics. Long story short, yes the math is very hard and yes it takes years to come up with final numbers for the most part. Although a lot of that is due to the 5 year methodology cycle the BEA is on. Fun fact, even after 40 months it still isn’t “accurate”.

jarodea on April 24, 2013 at 10:38 AM

You’re quite incorrect in just about every respect. Your last statement is correct. The math is not hard at all, and neither is lying to the American people.

These are politically manipulated statistics. Regardless of the fervent declarations that the career working folks at the BEA are honest, we know their superiors have every desire to make the emperor zero look good.

I know that with the technology we presently have there is no serious excuse for that delay. It’s a sad joke that the most powerful country in the world can’t tell in real time what the GDP is. Every company in the country calculates their books daily.

So we are supposed to take you seriously when you make a statement like that about a government that has the technical horsepower to read and parse all our email and drop a smart bomb on someone half a planet away, but they can’t manage their minor accounting?

LOL!!! Too funny.

BTW Jimmy Carter manipulated the GDP back in the day, because he said the price of energy and food was too volatile to remain in the calculation.

F- ™ (with permission from Del)

dogsoldier on April 24, 2013 at 2:21 PM

dogsoldier on April 24, 2013 at 2:21 PM

I’ll withdraw my well apportioned pithiness in this case and will respond point by point.

No lying to the American people is not hard.

The BEA made Bush look good in their previous methodology update, it happens. The latest revision made Hoover look better.

We most certainly do not have the technology to follow a $16 trillion economy day by day. We can survey a small part of it, some parts more than others, and use methodology which is updated every 5 years to estimate what is going on. Yes the math of it is very difficult.

This is the government that missed Tamerlan, not sure why you think it is capable of knowing everything. Yes the military is amazing and as I’ve long said it is the one part of the federal government that actually works, which is kind of dangerous long-term. Accounting for a $16 trillion constantly changing economy is anything by “minor”.

jarodea on April 24, 2013 at 6:02 PM