ADP jobs report in March shows 158K growth in private sector (poll fixed)

posted at 9:21 am on April 4, 2013 by Ed Morrissey

Tomorrow the BLS will release the official jobs report for March 2013, so once again we look to ADP and Gallup for predictive indicators.  ADP, which uses its extensive payroll-service data to estimate job growth in the private sector, usually comes in higher than the BLS, and that may mean a relatively poor report tomorrow, as ADP estimated growth of only 158,000 jobs last month — barely keeping pace with population growth:

Private sector employment increased by 158,000 jobs from February to March, according to the March ADP National Employment Report®, which is produced by ADP® , a leading provider of human capital management solutions, in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis. Revisions to job gains in the two prior months were offsetting; February’s gain of 198,000 jobs was revised up by 39,000 to 237,000, and January’s 215,000 gain was revised down by 38,000 to 177,000. …

Goods-producing employment rose by 7,000 jobs in March, its slowest pace of growth in six months. Construction added no net jobs over the month; this follows average monthly gains of 29,000 in the three months prior. Meanwhile, manufacturers added 6,000 jobs.

Service-providing jobs increased by 151,000. Among the service industries reported by the ADP National Employment Report, professional/business services had the largest gain with 39,000 jobs added over the month. Trade/transportation/utilities added 22,000 jobs and financial activities added 9,000 jobs.

In other words, the changes to their January and February reports canceled out.  Normally, we’d apply an overshoot factor somewhere between 60% and 80% to ADP’s numbers in order to estimate tomorrow’s BLS report.  That would set the range from 95K to 126K.

Gallup also reports little to no improvement in the employment picture in its monthly assessment.  Using similar survey techniques as the BLS, they show a stagnant workforce participation rate, and a slight uptick in the adjusted unemployment rate:

The U.S. Payroll to Population employment rate (P2P), as measured by Gallup, was 43.4% for the month of March, unchanged from 43.3% in February and in line with the 43.7% found in March 2012.

Gallup’s P2P metric is an estimate of the percentage of the U.S. adult population aged 18 and older who are employed full time by an employer for at least 30 hours per week. P2P is not seasonally adjusted. …

The U.S. workforce participation rate in March was 67.7%, unchanged from 67.8% in February and in March 2012.

Gallup’s unadjusted unemployment rate for the U.S. workforce was 8.0% for the month of March, the same as in February, but a modest improvement from 8.4% in March 2012.

Gallup’s seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate for March was 7.8%, a slight uptick from 7.6% in February, but down since March 2012. Gallup calculates a seasonally adjusted employment rate by applying the adjustment factor the government used for the same month in the previous year. Last year, the government adjusted March’s rate down by 0.2 points, but February’s was adjusted downward by 0.4 points, which accounts for the month-over-month increase in seasonally adjusted unemployment, despite the lack of change in the unadjusted rate.

One government metric showed a sudden and sharp increase in joblessness.  Weekly initial jobless claims increased this week by 28,000 to hit 385,000, a level not seen for quite a while:

In the week ending March 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 385,000, an increase of 28,000 from the previous week’s unrevised figure of 357,000. The 4-week moving average was 354,250, an increase of 11,250 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 343,000.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.4 percent for the week ending March 23, unchanged from the prior week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending March 23 was 3,063,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 3,071,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,067,250, a decrease of 10,500 from the preceding week’s revised average of 3,077,750.

That would mean that the claimants lost their jobs in the third week of March, a bump that the BLS may miss in its mid-month surveys.  It’s also good to remember that this is an indirectly correlative metric over time, and that single weeks are not terribly reliable indicators, but needless to say it’s not good news for the claimants.

Reuters takes a negative view of the trend nonetheless:

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose to its highest level in four months last week, suggesting the labor market recovery lost some steam in March.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 28,000 to a seasonally adjusted 385,000, the highest level since November, the Labor Department said on Thursday.

It was the third straight week of gains in claims. Coming on the heels of data on Wednesday showing private employers added the fewest jobs in five months in March, the report implied some weakening in job growth after hiring accelerated in February.

Still, they offer this strange prediction:

Employers are expected to have added 200,000 jobs to their payrolls last month, according to a Reuters survey, slowing from February’s brisk 236,000. The jobless rate is seen unchanged at 7.7 percent.

Not only do I think that’s a huge overshoot, I’d bet that the BLS adjusts the February jobs level downward a bit.  I’m going to guess that we’ll see an addition of 125,000 jobs in tomorrow’s report — below population growth — and a slight uptick in the jobless rate to 7.8% or a decline in the workforce participation rate to 63.4%.

Take the poll:


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How many readers expect the word “Unexpectedly” to appear in the headlines somewhere with this news?

Ukiah on April 4, 2013 at 9:28 AM

It’ll probably be the same stagnant “growth” we’ve seen nearly every month under this regime. I don’t know why anyone would expect otherwise.

Doughboy on April 4, 2013 at 9:29 AM

Who cares about jobs dad-gummit, we are focused on illegals, guns and da gheys…

Sincerely,
Libbie

hillsoftx on April 4, 2013 at 9:31 AM

Can’t take the poll because it closed before it opened.

Just like when I voted last year.

Gatsu on April 4, 2013 at 9:31 AM

How many readers expect the word “Unexpectedly” to appear in the headlines somewhere with this news?

Ukiah on April 4, 2013 at 9:28 AM

I usually ctrl+f for it. And I get a little bummed when I see its not in there.

Gatsu on April 4, 2013 at 9:31 AM

So now we get to watch the Democrats pretend that Sequesterocalypse is wreaking havoc with the economy while trying simultaneously to tell us that the economy is improving at breakneck speed thanks to Obama’s great leadership.

And they’ll believe both as completely true depending on whichever is more convenient at that moment.

Good Lt on April 4, 2013 at 9:32 AM

Can’t take the poll because it closed before it opened.

Just like when I voted last year.

Gatsu on April 4, 2013 at 9:31 AM

Sorry about that — it’s a PollDaddy bug. I fixed it, but it may take a few minutes to display properly.

Ed Morrissey on April 4, 2013 at 9:33 AM

20 million brand new citizens added to the rolls overnight would fix this problem.

Bishop on April 4, 2013 at 9:35 AM

So now we get to watch the Democrats pretend that Sequesterocalypse is wreaking havoc with the economy while trying simultaneously to tell us that the economy is improving at breakneck speed thanks to Obama’s great leadership.

Good Lt on April 4, 2013 at 9:32 AM

I hope they continue doing that. Fearmongering over the sequester has been PR disaster for Obama and the Dems.

Doughboy on April 4, 2013 at 9:35 AM

I’m actually not worried too much about the initial jobless claims because Easter (a movable holiday) is not part of the seasonal factoring. Typically, there’s a 40K-50K jump in the 2-week period surrounding Easter because of all the school districts that still take off Good Friday through the following week.

With that said, if next week’s seasoned jobless claims come in above 400K, or the following week’s seasoned claims come in above 370K, we’ll be slipping back from stagnation.

As for tomorrow’s jobs report, I’ll take +95K and 7.8% U-3.

Steve Eggleston on April 4, 2013 at 9:38 AM

So, is C N B C also a no-no to link?

Fallon on April 4, 2013 at 9:38 AM

I hope they continue doing that. Fearmongering over the sequester has been PR disaster for Obama and the Dems.

Doughboy on April 4, 2013 at 9:35 AM

I say remind them every day in every comment thread you can find where they’re pretending everything’s just peachy.

Remind them that they said the sequester would be disastrous and that cutting ANYTHING from government spending would be a disaster for the economy. Ask them which one it is, because it can’t be both.

Good Lt on April 4, 2013 at 9:40 AM

Recovery Summer is coming…I swear!

-Joe Biden

Youngs98 on April 4, 2013 at 9:40 AM

barely keeping pace with population growth:

How many months has this been part of the commentary. Meanwhile, to listen to the media, you’d think the economy was roaring along.

Guess it’s time for the media to throw another gun, gay, or illegal story on the pile to stoke public furor over something other than the economy, deficit, North Korean crisis, or middle east turmoil.

Happy Nomad on April 4, 2013 at 9:40 AM

Hey, Ed! Can we get another poll?

What will be the topic of Allahpundit’s QOTD tonight?

A. Guns

B. Gays

C. God

D. Immigration

E. None of the Above

lol

Resist We Much on April 4, 2013 at 9:41 AM

So, is C N B C also a no-no to link?

Fallon on April 4, 2013 at 9:38 AM

Maybe it is – I just tried linking a Euro bank soft-money policy sparks Euro selloff CNBC story and nothing. OTOH, comments have been a bit flukey this morning.

Steve Eggleston on April 4, 2013 at 9:42 AM

20 million brand new citizens added to the rolls overnight would fix this problem.

Bishop on April 4, 2013 at 9:35 AM

Only if they bring 20 million well-paying jobs with them.

Happy Nomad on April 4, 2013 at 9:42 AM

Resist We Much on April 4, 2013 at 9:41 AM

You forgot “All Of The Above” :-)

Steve Eggleston on April 4, 2013 at 9:42 AM

At what point do businesses actually start shedding workers or cutting their hours back due to Obummercare?

trigon on April 4, 2013 at 9:44 AM

At what point do businesses actually start shedding workers or cutting their hours back due to Obummercare?

trigon on April 4, 2013 at 9:44 AM

End of this year because the cover-or-fine part of PlaceboCare kicks in on January 1, 2014.

Steve Eggleston on April 4, 2013 at 9:45 AM

Resist We Much on April 4, 2013 at 9:41 AM

You forgot “All Of The Above” :-)

Steve Eggleston on April 4, 2013 at 9:42 AM

And you both forgot Ron Paul.

Gatsu on April 4, 2013 at 9:46 AM

And you both forgot Ron Paul.

Gatsu on April 4, 2013 at 9:46 AM

Don’t you mean Rand? Ron’s out of politics.

Steve Eggleston on April 4, 2013 at 9:47 AM

Only if they bring 20 million well-paying jobs with them.

Happy Nomad on April 4, 2013 at 9:42 AM

From the videos I saw…
Some were bringing guns..
But hey…

At least they are law abiding folks…/

Electrongod on April 4, 2013 at 9:47 AM

The truth is that Obama doesn’t know or understand or just doesn’t care how to get a robust economy going. He thnks that taking your tax money and hiring people to work for the government is job creation. That only places a bigger tax burden on the backs of taxpayers. He thinks that stimulus bills create jobs but many of the companies that received funds went bankrupt and many of the created jobs cost hundreds of thousands of dollars. You OWS people have been duped. Obama is a 1 percenter.
The only way to really grow the economy is to encourage the growth of small businesses. When a person starts a business and the business grows and hires more people the tax base is increased. Everyone wins in this scenario. The business owner reaps the benefit of his time, planning and investment, the employee gets a job and the government gets more tax money to work with as a result of the increased tax base. So simple a caveman can understand it, but not Obama and his merry band of economic idiots.

kemojr on April 4, 2013 at 9:55 AM

Recovery Summer is coming…I swear!

-Joe Biden

Youngs98 on April 4, 2013 at 9:40 AM

Recover Summer, 5.0

But this time they really, really, really mean it!

AZCoyote on April 4, 2013 at 9:57 AM

At this point, the employed/unemployed numbers have no meaning. None. It’s about how many people they are counting as the population of workers. The never seem to mention those in the highlights.

WitchDoctor on April 4, 2013 at 9:57 AM

What the numbers really show is there was never really any job growth in the preceding months at all and we are essentially still in the same no growth hole we’ve been in for the last four years. The month to month numbers have just been minor statistical noise reflecting the same static situation but whenever the noise appears to trend positive for a month or two the left heralds it as a “recovery” despite the fact the numbers trend the oppostive direction in the following months. In each case the changes are so small all we are really seeing is a static no growth environment.

tommyboy on April 4, 2013 at 9:58 AM

Resist We Much on April 4, 2013 at 9:41 AM

You forgot “All Of The Above” :-)

Steve Eggleston on April 4, 2013 at 9:42 AM

And you both forgot Ron Paul “Pink Money!”

Gatsu on April 4, 2013 at 9:46 AM

Guilty as charged on both counts.

Don’t you mean Rand? Ron’s out of politics.

Steve Eggleston on April 4, 2013 at 9:47 AM

No. Gatsu it correct. It’s Ron Paul…as in, “If you had voted for “Jackpot!,” we wouldn’t have this problem or even be discussing it!”

Resist We Much on April 4, 2013 at 9:59 AM

From the videos I saw…
Some were bringing guns..
But hey…

At least they are law abiding folks…/

Electrongod on April 4, 2013 at 9:47 AM

To be fair, they’re also bringing drugs. That’s what’s in those big backpacks. (They’re not called drug “mules” for nothing).

Mexican criminal syndicates, doing the jobs lazy Americans won’t!

AZCoyote on April 4, 2013 at 10:00 AM

Recover Summer, 5.0

But this time they really, really, really mean it!

AZCoyote on April 4, 2013 at 9:57 AM

Recovery Summer 5.0: Now with gays, guns, and illegals!

Happy Nomad on April 4, 2013 at 10:10 AM

Don’t you mean Rand? Ron’s out of politics.

Steve Eggleston on April 4, 2013 at 9:47 AM

So is George Bush. That doesn’t stop the libtards from blaming him for everything from acid rain to zebra invasions.

Oldnuke on April 4, 2013 at 10:14 AM

To be fair, they’re also bringing drugs. That’s what’s in those big backpacks.

AZCoyote on April 4, 2013 at 10:00 AM

What? NO! I’m sure they are carrying books. The administration has told us they are just really really studious and want to do well on their citizenship test. You really need to trust the government when they issue these pronouncements.

Every single illegal is a hard-working undocumented worker who wants nothing more than to become an American citizen. These illegals commit no crimes- ever. There is no such thing as Mexican drug cartel activity in the United States.

All gays mate for life. Only straight people show up at gay pride parades in a thong and rainbow-colored body paint. (actual claim from an HA poster)

Any concern over gun-grabbing legislation is nothing more than right-wing hysteria.

Happy Nomad on April 4, 2013 at 10:17 AM

Department of Labor Data A-38. Persons not in the labor force by desire and availability for work, age, and sex

Losses from 2008 to February 2012

90,100,000 minus 79,501,000 equals 10,599,000

55 years and older
48,354,000 minus 42,794,000 equals 5,560,000
-

10,000 day retire (guess) 1,825,000 retired

Frustrated, I looked up DOL numbers. It didn’t make me feel any better that they blame retirees for the “persons not in the labor force” when their own numbers calculate 55 years and older.

DarrelsJoy on April 4, 2013 at 10:20 AM

So is George Bush. That doesn’t stop the libtards from blaming him for everything from acid rain to zebra invasions.

Oldnuke on April 4, 2013 at 10:14 AM

And the Atlanta cheating scandal. Seriously, the Rats have never stopped blaming Hoover either.

Steve Eggleston on April 4, 2013 at 10:26 AM

So, is C N B C also a no-no to link?

Fallon on April 4, 2013 at 9:38 AM

Yep, always. HA has determined that CNBC and CNN are too-unreliable sources of news to allow links to.

slickwillie2001 on April 4, 2013 at 10:40 AM

So is George Bush. That doesn’t stop the libtards from blaming him for everything from acid rain to zebra invasions.

Oldnuke on April 4, 2013 at 10:14 AM

One thing that Jorge Bush definitely can be blamed for is illegal immigration. He had the perfect opportunity to seal the border following 9-11 (the GOP controlled both Houses of Congress) but deliberately chose not to.

bw222 on April 4, 2013 at 10:42 AM

The media is pivoting toward a negative spin on the numbers so it can be linked to “cuts” in government spending.

Wigglesworth on April 4, 2013 at 10:44 AM

20 million brand new citizens added to the rolls overnight would fix this problem.

Bishop on April 4, 2013 at 9:35 AM

Only if they bring 20 million well-paying jobs with them.

Happy Nomad on April 4, 2013 at 9:42 AM

If they were entrepreneurs or degreed professionals, they would create jobs. Unfortunately the democratics prefer uneducated Mexican yard workers dragging a wife and two kids along. They’ll go right from the INS office to the line to sign up for welfare and food stamps and Medicaid.

slickwillie2001 on April 4, 2013 at 10:45 AM

I hate to be overly hard on that dude in the picture, but after three post docs, the fact that he only has six publications is troubling. I wouldn’t hire him.

Dr Snooze on April 4, 2013 at 10:51 AM

Same crap different day. Let me know when the election is here.

RDE2010 on April 4, 2013 at 11:15 AM

I hate to be overly hard on that dude in the picture, but after three post docs, the fact that he only has six publications is troubling. I wouldn’t hire him.

Dr Snooze on April 4, 2013 at 10:51 AM

Lol

RDE2010 on April 4, 2013 at 11:16 AM

I hate to be overly hard on that dude in the picture, but after three post docs, the fact that he only has six publications is troubling. I wouldn’t hire him.

Dr Snooze on April 4, 2013 at 10:51 AM

Wouldn’t the nature of the PhD have some bearing on the number of publications? Whenever HA shows that picture, I always think about the value of getting a doctorate in Fine Arts or something.

Happy Nomad on April 4, 2013 at 11:17 AM

Same crap different day. Let me know when the election is here.

RDE2010 on April 4, 2013 at 11:15 AM

No! Same crap different week. This is gun week on the Barry Sotero show. Last week it was the gays. Next week it will be the illegals.

Nothing matters these days but guns, gays, and illegals. Jobs reports are mere noise. The important thing is that some of those who are unemployed will benefit from our super-smart rat-eared devil of a leader because they too have guns, are gay, or are illegal.

Happy Nomad on April 4, 2013 at 11:20 AM

Oops! Just realised that I forgot the link:

Jackpot!

No matter the poll, there will always be, at least, one Paulistinian that shows up to say, “If you idiots had only voted for Ron Paul like we ‘TruCons™’ told you to, we wouldn’t have this problem. Hey, who’s up for a new 9/11 Commission?!?!?! Fire can’t melt steel, you know…and did you see the 5 Hasidic Jews dancing in the streets as the Towers fell??? They were the ONLY JOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOS that came near the WTC that day. All the other JOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOS, conveniently, stayed home. Hmmmm…..”

Resist We Much on April 4, 2013 at 11:28 AM

What will be the topic of Allahpundit’s QOTD tonight?
A. Guns
B. Gays
C. God
D. Immigration
E. None of the Above
lol

Resist We Much on April 4, 2013 at 9:41 AM

“Gay Priest Shot in Church by Molested Illegal Immigrant with High Cap Assault Clip Magazine”

dentarthurdent on April 4, 2013 at 11:34 AM

little to no improvement in the employment picture in its monthly assessment

And there won’t be until that clown is removed from the White House, along with the senile fool running the US Senate.

GarandFan on April 4, 2013 at 11:36 AM

I love that cover photo – PhD, 3 Post Docs, Published 6 Papers.

OK – but do you have any actual JOB skills, besides being a professional student?

dentarthurdent on April 4, 2013 at 11:36 AM

To be fair, they’re also bringing drugs. That’s what’s in those big backpacks.

AZCoyote on April 4, 2013 at 10:00 AM

I expect very soon those backpacks will be full of high capacity assault mag-clips…..
Now that pot is legal and 30 round magazines are illegal in Colorado, I expect to see a shift in what makes the cartels more money on the black market.

dentarthurdent on April 4, 2013 at 11:42 AM

I expect to see a shift in what makes the cartels more money on the black market.

dentarthurdent on April 4, 2013 at 11:42 AM

Well, that’s one way to get back the guns that Eric Holder gave the cartels as part of Operation Fast & Furious.

Happy Nomad on April 4, 2013 at 11:52 AM

The poll needs to include the following option:

What ever the numbers need to be to make Obama look good….yet have Bernanke keep printing 85 Billion a month to goose the stock market.

Because once Bernanke stops propping up the stock market and the banks that are to big to fail…..the house of cards begins to crumble….

I think this would be the correct choice.

DVPTexFla on April 4, 2013 at 12:15 PM

I will boldly predict that the unemployment rate will drop to 7.4%… No point in not continuing the lies already being perpetrated. The real unemployment rate is north of 22% but absolutely nobody will admit to it.

SWalker on April 4, 2013 at 1:21 PM

I voted for 175K jobs. I think job prospects are improving for now as manufacturers start to home shore again. But many of these jobs will be PT and low wage, so more jobs does not irrevocably lead to prosperity for households.

22044 on April 4, 2013 at 1:48 PM