Pew poll: Just 43% support a path to citizenship for illegals

posted at 8:41 pm on March 28, 2013 by Allahpundit

Before you go further, skim this post from last month rounding up recent data from various polls on immigration. Almost universally, there was 50-60 percent support for a path to citizenship. A month later, Pew finds 43 percent. Hmmmmmm.

Head for the lifeboats, Marco. While there’s still time.

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Lots of interesting data there. For starters, support among blacks for the path to citizenship is higher than it is among any other group, Hispanics included. At the same time, only among blacks is there majority support; even Hispanics fall short at 49 percent, and both Republicans and independents can’t even muster 40. On the other hand, there’s nothing remotely close to majority support for the position that illegals shouldn’t be allowed to stay. The highest number for any group is 37 percent among people without a college degree.

So what’s going on? Has support for the path to citizenship crumbled in the past four or five weeks as news outlets have started covering the Gang of Eight? Public opinion on comprehensive immigration reform has been known to go south in the past once Congress has taken up the issue, which is why Lindsey Graham wants the new bill rushed through to a vote ASAP. The answer, I think, isn’t that support is crumbling but that it wasn’t quite as high a month ago as it seemed. The reason the older poll data varies dramatically from Pew’s results is because Pew offered respondents the option of letting illegals apply for permanent residency rather than full citizenship. Most polls don’t do that. They simply offer a choice between citizenship and mass deportation or the status quo. If you combine Pew’s numbers on citizenship and permanent residency then you’re at 71 percent overall, which is more or less in line with previous polls. Clearly, most people do want illegals to be able to stay. (Republicans too — they’re onboard to the tune of 64 percent.) The significance of this new data is that it shows, when you drill down, that there’s no majority for a path to citizenship once people have a lesser legalization alternative to choose from. There’s at least theoretical support for Jeb Bush’s middle-ground option of letting illegals stay as permanent residents while barring them from full citizen privileges like voting. Practically, though, that’ll never work: Democrats and their amnesty-lobby allies will never, ever settle for it and would demagogue supporters mercilessly as endorsing “Jim Crow status” for illegals. It’s a nonstarter, but this data is still useful at least as an antidote for when Rubio et al. start selling their bill by insisting that “most” Americans want a path to citizenship. Not true, unless that’s the only option you give them.

One other point. When Pew asked whether immigrants strengthen America with hard work and talent or burden America because they take jobs, housing, and health care, 59 percent of 18-29-year-olds said the former rather than the latter. That was nine points higher than the next highest group. When asked if immigrations strengthen America or threaten American values, the same age group said the former 64 percent of the time, which was eight points higher than the next highest group. You can see for yourself how they responded to the threshold question about citizenship/residency above. This is yet another reminder that younger voters tend to skew liberal on issues across the board, not just gay marriage or marijuana legalization. If the GOP’s eager to make inroads with the under-30 set, it may have to move more broadly to the center than it expects.

Update: I didn’t see Conn Carroll’s post until after I wrote this but he makes many of the same points.


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US citizenship is such a precious thing. Why should it be so freely available to line-jumpers when others from around the world wait years to be allowed entry into the US? At the least they should go back to their home country and go to the back of the line.

Paul-Cincy on March 28, 2013 at 8:43 PM

Today we must all be aware that political expediency and latino ethnicity takes precedence over rule of law and constitutional procedure. However you say – WHAT THE – what does this mean… in relation to the tabulation whereby we must once again realize that the great reconquesta story is now being rehearsed before our very eyes, in the rise of Marco Rubio… indicating that only a two-faced, I mean a bi-faced, I mean a bi-lingual hombre can receive…the award for reconquesta, unlike Kenyan Hussein Obama whose reconquesta plans don’t drink water.

Amigos – comrades – friends, we are gathered here as an edifice of the great glory that is now vanishing and the intuitive feeling, based on the assumption as Mencken once said, “He who underestimates the American voter will never go broke.” This is merely a small indication to behold and to perceive that which has gone way into the behind and to that which might go forward out of the future…we’ve got to rip up the constitution so we can rip down those outdated borders!

Ladies and Gentlemen. The time will come when a first world America will outlive its usefulness. Marx, either Groucho or Karl, I can’t remember which, maybe it was both or maybe it was Harpo, once said that America is the opiate of the people. I say that when America outlives its usefulness and becomes a majority latino nation , then opium…will be the opiate…Ahh that’s not a bad idea… we are going to need that especially when the booze runs out …

And the bi-partisan panel, has determined to give the prize to Marco Rubio for his EARNESTY’S RAINBOW. Now EARNESTY’S RAINBOW is a token of this man’s genius…he told me so himself and repeatedly …that he could change perceptions by calling his plan for knocking down those pesky borders EARNESTY …in other words, he could have been more specific, but rather than to allude to an articulation of the mundane, he has come to the conclusion that brevity is the importance of our nation’s shallow first world existence. God damn!

Marco Rubio’s . EARNESTY’S RAINBOW – is a small contribution to a certain degree, since there are over seven billion people in the world today. 450 of them … million live in the United States and Mexico which is a very, very small amount compared to those who will be miserable and dying elsewhere…Well, I say that you will be on the road to new horizons, for we who live in a society where citizenship is a commodity and a politician can become a TV personality, it’s not easy to conform if you have any morality…I, I, I said that myself many years ago…

But I do want to thank la Raza…I mean the RNC … I mean the DNC and it’s subsidiary the RNC, the organization for the $1,000 in affirmative action latino scholarships they’ve given out…tonight they took in over $4,000,000, but they do have expenses for their consultants you know, and I think that I have another appointment. I would like to stay here, but for the sake of brevity I, I must leave. I do want to thank you, I want to thank Mr. Allah Pundit. I want to thank Mr. Morrisey, who just ran through the auditorium and out a fire exit, and I want to thank Marco Rubio – acting el Presidenta of la Raza Mexiamerica and also Mr. Obama – acting Pharaoh and Drone Commander of the World – and also I want to thank Professor Irwin Corey and thank you. …

RasThavas on March 28, 2013 at 8:44 PM

Just 43% support a path to citizenship for illegals

And we haven’t even really started the national debate yet. Once the amnesty push gets into high gear and amnesty opponents start focusing more on this issue the needle is going to move further in our direction, not the other, just like it did in ’07.

FloatingRock on March 28, 2013 at 8:45 PM

Pew poll: Just 43% support a path to citizenship for illegals

Probably about the same percentage who thought socializing the health care industry was a good idea.

The socialists rarely manage to get a majority without lying, cheating, and stealing (other people’s money).

farsighted on March 28, 2013 at 8:49 PM

RINO’s say that we have to pass amnesty otherwise the Democrats are going to hang this around the Republican Party’s neck in ’14 and ’16. No, in fact it should be the other way around if only we had some patriotic leaders in Washington DC that weren’t in the pockets of cronies. We could hang this around the necks of the traitors that want to sell out America!

FloatingRock on March 28, 2013 at 8:50 PM

How come the pollsters never ask their respondents if they support or oppose the minoritization of whites and then demographically break the responses down?

Buddahpundit on March 28, 2013 at 8:51 PM

The Dirty Little “Secret”: The reason that politician supporters of “Comprehensive Immigration Reform” want it is so that they and/or their campaign contributors can have serf labor. They would probably prefer actual out-and-out slaves but that is illegal. “Comprehensive Immigration Reform” Democrats, like Obama, also want it so that those who are now illegal can become legal and vote for them, if they aren’t voting for them already.

Does anyone think that any of these “Comprehensive Immigration Reform” politicians actually care one wit otherwise for the illegals. Does anyone think that any of the “Comprehensive Immigration Reform” politicians are going to invite these Mexican Indios and Mezclados to join their elite/exclusive golf clubs? Come to live in their gated communities, other than as servants? Invite them to their yachts, other than as low paid deck hands and/or servants? Invite them to their cocktail parties? Introduce them to their daughters?

The big majority of the Mexicans who have come here/will come here are Indios and Mezclados, not the Spanish descendant fair-skinned ruling class of Mexico. This is a form of ethnic cleansing by Mexico’s ruling class. So these “Comprehensive Immigration Reform” politicians are aiding and abetting and facilitating ethnic cleansing. If the U.N. were not such a joke, they would all be standing trial for trying to reintroduce a form of latter-day-slavery in the United States and for the mass ethnic cleansing of Mexico.

VorDaj on March 28, 2013 at 8:52 PM

Shocked that it’s highest with blacks. They’re the ones that stand to lose the most from a path to citizenship. They’re statistically more likely to hold low skill jobs and rely on government welfare. Adding more low skilled workers to the labor force will only hurt the African American community.

But I guess if that’s what their Daddy says that they should support, they need to support it.

blammm on March 28, 2013 at 8:53 PM

I support a path to citizenship for illegals ….. they have to return to Mexico, and come back through the FRONT DOOR.

listens2glenn on March 28, 2013 at 8:54 PM

Immigration law 2.0
–bayam

tom daschle concerned on March 28, 2013 at 8:58 PM

looks like they’ll try to do another O.care bill….pass it and find out what’s in it

Given the enormity of the changes that would result from comprehensive immigration reform, Senate Democrats wouldn’t try to rush a bill through the Judiciary Committee before the public gets a chance to know what’s in it — would they?

In the past few days, even though proposed reform legislation from the so-called Gang of Eight hasn’t even been written, there have been strong indications that that’s exactly what Democrats intend to do.

http://washingtonexaminer.com/byron-york-democrats-set-to-jam-immigration-reform-through-senate/article/2525736

will Rs try to block? Leftists love this game. they see Rs in a lose/lose position. If Rs block, the Ds will have the Hispanics 4ever…if Rs support they will lose the rest of the country.

Ds game things into a win/win for them, so they can rule 4ever

tough game….Rs have already madly signaled that they’ll do Anything to win…anything to be nice…anything to lose 4ever

here’s McCain’s chance to be immortal..I betcha he would love to have the McCain/Leahy/Obama immigration bill

r keller on March 28, 2013 at 8:59 PM

I fully support a path. The path goes back over the border, to wherever they came from, and then through the normal entry points into this nation if they so choose.

Bishop on March 28, 2013 at 9:00 PM

No to illegal alien amnesty. Secure the border! Enforce immigration laws!

bluegill on March 28, 2013 at 9:01 PM

On the other hand, there’s nothing remotely close to majority support for the position that illegals shouldn’t be allowed to stay.

Not yet. The majority would support that position if they thought it was the majority opinion but they fear telling the pollster the truth as long as they feel they are a minority.

Buddahpundit on March 28, 2013 at 9:04 PM

Send this to every Republican especially the RINO brigade of McConnel, McCain, Graham, Boehner, Cantor and McCarthy.

Wigglesworth on March 28, 2013 at 9:05 PM

One other point. When Pew asked whether immigrants strengthen America with hard work and talent or burden America because they take jobs, housing, and health care, 59 percent of 18-29-year-olds said the former rather than the latter. That was nine points higher than the next highest group. When asked if immigrations strengthen America or threaten American values, the same age group said the former 64 percent of the time, which was eight points higher than the next highest group.

The issue is ILLEGAL immigrants, not immigrants. And it doesn’t matter what their opinion is. The fact is immigrants(legal and illegal) do burden America by taking jobs, housing and health care, whether they want to believe it or not. And they do threaten American values as well, whether these children want to believe it or not.

xblade on March 28, 2013 at 9:06 PM

Path to citizenship — no, never.

Difficult arduous path to legal residence and a green card — maybe, depending.

No adult who entered the US illegally should ever be granted citizenship unless they choose to return from where they came and reenter legally, just like all of the other legal immigrants they are trying to cut in line in front of.

farsighted on March 28, 2013 at 9:06 PM

Didn’t the same thing happen in 2007? Polls were showing most supported a pathway to citizenship. That changed after it became a national issue and people started to pay attention.

midgeorgian on March 28, 2013 at 9:07 PM

Unless their gay illegals, then I believe support is at 99%…

hillsoftx on March 28, 2013 at 9:12 PM

Oh, give it time. There’ll be plenty of push-polling to come to show a 20-point swing in attitude.

ddrintn on March 28, 2013 at 9:13 PM

How many times does one have to say

NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
And
Fracking !!NO

Scrumpy on March 28, 2013 at 9:13 PM

Most polling calls go to urban areas which are more liberal than other area of the country. Hence, all polls not specifically targeted to more rural areas will have a built in liberal bias, be the respondents young or old, Democrat , Republican or “independent.”

devan95 on March 28, 2013 at 9:15 PM

How many times does one have to say

NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NOAnd
Fracking !!NO

Scrumpy on March 28, 2013 at 9:13 PM

They must be hearing things in reverse… that we keep saying, “ON ON ON ON!!!”

Myron Falwell on March 28, 2013 at 9:17 PM

I’m guessing that Zo’s new vid won’t get any play here. It’s a barn-burner.

tom daschle concerned on March 28, 2013 at 9:18 PM

We need to be very clear about what “Path to Citizenship” means.

Does that citizenship mean that ILLEGAL aliens would beoome 100% Americans?

or

Will we be granting these ILLEGAL aliens U.S. Citizenship while allowing them to ALSO keep the citizenship of their birth country?

I do not want my 100% American vote to be canceled out by a former ILLEGAL alien who maintains their loyalty to a foreign country.

wren on March 28, 2013 at 9:22 PM

I’m guessing that Zo’s new vid won’t get any play here. It’s a barn-burner.

tom daschle concerned on March 28, 2013 at 9:18 PM

Link it foo!

Otay. Here it is at Alfonzo Rachel’s website.

tom daschle concerned on March 28, 2013 at 9:23 PM

A couple issues with these polls:

They don’t ask if an illegal immigrant that was arrested for a crime should be allowed to stay in the country. They would be allowed to in “immigration reform” unless they were convicted of a felony or multiple misdemeanors. They don’t ask if illegal immigrants should be able to stay in the country and collect welfare benefits such as food stamps and medicaid. The poll(or participant I suppose) assumes that they are all gainfully employed, law abiding residents.

If they were doing a poll asking should Americans own guns you can bet they would break it down into categories of people and categories of guns. Should a convicted felon be allowed to own a gun? Should a mental health patient be allowed to own a gun? This would give a more accurate assessment of where Americans would draw the line on gun ownership.

Wigglesworth on March 28, 2013 at 9:31 PM

This is yet another reminder that younger voters tend to skew liberal on issues across the board,

Even the Bible got that right, setting the lower limit at thirty years old.

OldEnglish on March 28, 2013 at 9:35 PM

Warning: Beware of egomaniacal, overly self-promoting frauds like Sarah Palin who also support a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants.

The following aired on October 21, 2008 during the broadcast of “Aquí y Ahora” on Univision Network. The following excerpt was taken from that interview: ( http://www.univision.com/content/content.jhtml?chid=3&schid=10414&secid=0&cid=1716304 )

Governor, let me ask you about immigration. How many undocumented immigrants are there in Alaska?
I don’t know, I don’t know. That’s a good question.

As governor, how do you deal with them? Do you think they all should be deported?
There is no way that in the US we would roundup every illegal immigrant -there are about 12 million of the illegal immigrants- not only economically is that just an impossibility but that’s not a humane way anyway to deal with the issue that we face with illegal immigration.

Do you then favor an amnesty for the 12 or 13 million undocumented immigrants?
No, I do not. I do not. Not total amnesty. You know, people have got to follow the rules. They’ve got to follow the bar, and we have got to make sure that there is equal opportunity and those who are here legally should be first in line for services being provided and those opportunities that this great country provides.

To clarify, so you support a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants?
I do because I understand why people would want to be in America. To seek the safety and prosperity, the opportunities, the health that is here. It is so important that yes, people follow the rules so that people can be treated equally and fairly in this country.

————
From here: http://www.americanpatrol.com/GOP/PALIN/ProAmnesty091205SP_.html

Lars Larson interview with Sarah Palin – December 3, 2009
Note: Lars Larson is a talk show host on KXL – AM 750 — Portland, Oregon

Lars Larson: The amnesty proposal that was defeated in the Congress — in your view, was that amnesty for illegals and would you back amnesty or a path to citizenship, as the current president calls it?

Sarah Palin: … And you know, there are humane ways to deal with the 11-13 million illegal aliens that are in our country right now, but if they’re not going to follow the rules, they need to get out.

Lars: So you would be in favor, not of a path to create legalization process, but tell them, if you’re not here legally, leave and, in the meantime put up a barrier to keep new illegals out?

Palin: Uh, I would absolutely prefer the latter that you’re suggesting right there. To secure the border and to not allow this generous amnesty that the Democrats are proposing. No, that’s not how we’re going to create or form an economy – that’s not how we are going to create a fairness and equality to allow people to be here illegally.

——–
Since Illegal aliens haven’t followed the rules as it is, when Sarah Palin said, “but if they’re not going to follow the rules, they need to get out,” she must mean new rules. When she said, “I would absolutely prefer the latter,” she was agreeing with Lars about putting up barriers, but not necessarily when he said, “if you’re not here illegally, leave.”

Palin has cleverly left room for proposing a path to citizenship for all illegal aliens presently in the U.S. Some call that amnesty.

bluegill on March 28, 2013 at 9:35 PM

Ted Cruz is solid on border security and immigration law enforcement. He is one to watch.

bluegill on March 28, 2013 at 9:36 PM

Which poll to believe?

Every one other than this poll indicates different ..whopping 64% support immigration reform

You can’t round up 11 million people..never happen

I support reform..we have amnesty NOW

Redford on March 28, 2013 at 9:38 PM

Pretty soon THESE numbers will become reality.

Attrition through enforcement is favored by 40% of Hispanic-Americans, amnesty by only 54%.

Majority of most demographics favor law enforcement, not rewards, for criminals.

Amnesty is rewarding the criminal with his ill-gotten goods (residency). How well ya’ think that will work in the long run (or short!!) ??

fred5678 on March 28, 2013 at 9:44 PM

“Almost universally, there was 50-60 percent support for a path to citizenship.”

No there wasn’t…

“The attack in Benghazi was caused by a YouTube video…”

Seven Percent Solution on March 28, 2013 at 9:51 PM

[Paul-Cincy on March 28, 2013 at 8:43 PM]

Yup. The one civil right we extend to people who’ve never set foot in this country — the opportunity to come here and become Americans. They used to be those who we described tired, poor, wretched refuse, homeless and tempest tossed with the only proviso is that they yearned to be free.

Rightly we ought to be talking about increasing immigration quotas, but there have been so many people ruining this opportunity for people to come here legally by running the border illegally all with the tacit consent of the leaders in our society with their own selfish, greedy interests in mind.

And these same illegals now demand access to government entitlements they’ve not contributed to and organize to bribe politicians with their potential voting power to have them pervert the rule of law, further denying that civil right we’d offered, while causing all sorts of turmoil and animosity across the country. What’s worst of all is that politicians are fighting each other to get their share of those bribes.

The vast majority of the world has been priced out of ever being able to come here. You have to have money come here; the educated and the well to do can buy their way in ahead of and separate from those huddled masses.

It’s disgusting that the dishonest get in almost at will and then eventually get what they want here, while the honest have little chance to enter and long waits in any event.

Dusty on March 28, 2013 at 9:54 PM

lol

no offense, but seeing how blacks support amnesty more than any else, it just …. seems….. wrong…

barack says jump, they say how high.

El_Terrible on March 28, 2013 at 10:01 PM

bluegill on March 28, 2013 at 9:35 PM

…cracked record…cracked head…crackhead!

KOOLAID2 on March 28, 2013 at 10:30 PM

lol

no offense, but seeing how blacks support amnesty more than any else, it just …. seems….. wrong…

barack says jump, they say how high.

El_Terrible on March 28, 2013 at 10:01 PM

Yep. Like with gay mirage. Sheep.

CW on March 28, 2013 at 11:09 PM

What the hell. We’re $16 trillion in debt! Offer free citizenship and share the load!

If we just made it clear that everyone here is on the hook for that debt, there’d be a lot fewer illegals here.

flataffect on March 28, 2013 at 11:24 PM

Head for the lifeboats, Marco.

Yes … literally. Go away. Go break into some other country. That seems to be your preferred method of people gaining citizenship.

ThePrimordialOrderedPair on March 28, 2013 at 11:27 PM

The political Traitor Class begs to disagree with Americans.

Their whoring for power trumps the People, the Constitution, their sworn oaths of office and the very survival of their nation.

Obama, Hillary, the Dems, and the pandering GOP scum.

They should all be in orange jumpsuits policing the trash left by illegal invaders dumped along the border.

profitsbeard on March 29, 2013 at 12:00 AM

Just about the same percentage as the people on the dole. Figures!

mixplix on March 29, 2013 at 4:37 AM

Whoops used the word h*ll and got edited out.

mixplix on March 29, 2013 at 4:48 AM

From the Pew site

Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan fact tank that informs the public about the issues, attitudes and trends shaping America and the world. It conducts public opinion polling, demographic research, media content analysis and other empirical social science research. Pew Research does not take policy positions. It is a subsidiary of The Pew Charitable Trusts.

In the Charitable Trusts, State and Consumer Initiatives, under Issues, Families, for instance, Pew Trust puts out a bunch of data about the values of Home visits, concurrent with a link to Obama’s SOU:

Libby Doggett, director of Pew’s home visiting campaign, said today:

“We applaud this move by the President to work with states to expand voluntary home visiting programs. Both the President and governors across the country agree that prioritizing young kids is one of the best investments we can make.

“Every mom and dad wants to bring out the best in their child. Home visiting programs bring out the best in parents. These are goals that transcend politics and party, and the support we’ve seen already from policymakers on both sides of the aisle proves it.”

Pew set up its polling to be ‘independent’ of the trust it fields for. Yep. Pew time releases polls, to influence public opinion. If the administration has a new battle plan, expect Pew to pop up with a supporting poll

A poll is not a vote. A poll is a tiny sampling of a huge population chosen by the pollsters. The weights, ratios normally applied to the sample are devised by the pollsters. Multiply the numbers in each strata, by the ratio of that strata to the full US population of that strata, and supposedly the numbers represent the full population of that strata of the US

My career included creating weighted reports to satisfy the needs of the reporters. The gimmick is in the sampling strata, where the so called representative sample was pulled, how the weights are created, and most important, where they pull the tiny samples.

For instance, the strata here about is age, but even the age spreads can be set to give better numbers. A representative sample is a good as the honor of the pollster, and even the most honorable can pull a bogus set. Among my jobs was applying new sets of weights, until they got it right. My job was not to ask why the weights were changed – over and over again. I noticed they never wanted big samples. They used to crank out coeficient of variations with statistical formulas to prove the probable reliability of their data. Yeah

As my boss, a PhD mathematician who was a math prodigy as a youth in his native land, said of what we did: “Junk, all junk”

I use Pew polls to keep track of the latest political strategies

entagor on March 29, 2013 at 10:17 AM

According to democrats 43% is a majority and indicates Americans want illegals to get amnesty.

Just like all Americans wanted Obamacare.

The Notorious G.O.P on March 29, 2013 at 12:21 PM

The problem with such polls is that they don’t state “givens.”
Given that illegal aliens take X% of jobs from American citizens, mostly minorities, do you think that they should be given a path to citizenship?
Given that X% of crimes in the US are committed by illegal aliens do you believe they should be allowed to stay.
Given that X% of illegal aliens are on government programs costing the US $X do you think they should be allowed to stay.

Give the consequences of the actions of what is being polled and you might get a much different answer.

hopeful on March 29, 2013 at 8:14 PM