Uh oh: Mark Sanford trails Democrat by two in hypothetical SC-1 match-up

posted at 5:21 pm on March 26, 2013 by Allahpundit

The standard disclaimer: Yes, PPP is left-leaning (they’re Kos’s pollster) so you may, if you’re so inclined, conclude that they’re trying to depress Republican turnout/boost Democratic turnout in the upcoming special election with these numbers. And now the obligatory footnote: They were pretty darned accurate in last year’s presidential polling.

I’m skeptical that even a tarnished GOP nominee is vulnerable in a district like SC-1 that has a Partisan Voter Index of R+11 (which is why I thought the general election would be a walkover), but that’s what makes this data potentially significant. Is Sanford’s image so tarnished that he’d actually put the seat in jeopardy by boosting turnout among Democrats and anti-Sanford independents? And will Republican primary voters start to think twice about him now that they’ve seen these numbers? If ever there was a poll with the potential to affect the outcome of a race, it’s this one.

Sanford remains a strong favorite for the Republican nomination heading into next week’s runoff. He leads Bostic 53/40. The horse race numbers closely mirror his favorability with GOP voters- 55% see him positively to 40% with a negative opinion. If there’s a silver lining for Bostic it’s that he still has a name recognition deficit- 77% of voters have heard of him to 95% for Sanford- and among voters who are familiar with him he trails Sanford only 49/46. That suggests some possibility of closing as voters focus in on the choice between the two in the final weeks, but Bostic may just not have enough time.

Focusing in on the potential race between Busch and Sanford it’s surprisingly close for one simple reason- voters like Busch and they continue to strongly dislike Sanford. 45% of voters see Busch favorably to only 31% with a negative opinion. On the other hand Sanford is still stuck with a 34% favorability rating and 58% of voters seeing him in a negative light.

The big question for Sanford is whether the Republicans who don’t like him- 39% of them- will be willing to vote for him anyway in the general election. The undecideds in a Sanford/Busch race voted for Mitt Romney by a 77/12 margin in 2012 so they’re an extremely GOP leaning group but because of their distaste for Sanford there’s a chance that they’ll vote for Busch or more likely just stay at home if Sanford is the candidate. If Sanford can up his share of the Republican vote in the general to 85% once he’s the nominee that would probably be enough to put him over the top.

Busch leads Sanford 47/45 but ties with Bostic at 43, with Bostic obviously having room to grow if he can get his name recognition up. Case in point, compare the “not sure” lines in the two data sets below.

sb

The numbers among independents are … not good (in fact, Bostic’s favorability overall is just 30/42), but you don’t need broad appeal to win a district this red. If he can raise his profile a bit, most of those “not sures” are likely to move his way. Rick Santorum’s going to try to help him do that: He announced this morning that he’s endorsing Bostic, whose base is among evangelicals, in the GOP runoff. If you’re an undecided Republican voter who’s interested first and foremost in holding the seat, he’s the obvious choice, no? The generic unknown nominee’s a safer bet in a heavily Republican district than the famous one known for skipping out for a few days as governor to visit his mistress on another continent.

Exit question: Will Huckabee endorse Bostic too? The race for the social conservative champion in 2016 is on.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Uh oh: Mark Sanford trails Democrat by two in hypothetical SC-1 general election

Exit question: How long before the Republicans start calling Sanford a “Tea Party candidate?”

Doomberg on March 26, 2013 at 5:23 PM

Not to worry, a quick pivot to supporting gay anything will put Sanford back in the lead.

Bishop on March 26, 2013 at 5:23 PM

Sometimes people get the government they deserve.

alchemist19 on March 26, 2013 at 5:24 PM

Who knows? Maybe the GOP will lose the House in 2014.

steebo77 on March 26, 2013 at 5:24 PM

Is Sanford’s image so tarnished that he’d actually put the seat in jeopardy by boosting turnout among Democrats and anti-Sanford independents?

Short answer: Yup. The dude was rootin’ around with an foreigner. That don’t play well in south cackylacky

BobMbx on March 26, 2013 at 5:26 PM

Don’t look at me, *I* didn’t vote for him.

BigGator5 on March 26, 2013 at 5:26 PM

I simply don’t believe this. Noted fat, stupid redneck Erick Erickson has endorsed Mark Sanford. Surely that endorsement should be paying more dividends than this?

Armin Tamzarian on March 26, 2013 at 5:28 PM

When he loses, he can bury his head in his soulmate’s tits.

MadisonConservative on March 26, 2013 at 5:28 PM

Not to worry, a quick pivot to supporting gay anything will put Sanford back in the lead.

Bishop on March 26, 2013 at 5:23 PM

He could come out and say his affair was really his beard. He really is a gay american who was in the closet, but now with all the politicians coming out; he too feels safe. :)

melle1228 on March 26, 2013 at 5:29 PM

Nikki Haley should endorse Sanford, so he’ll tank in the polls.

portlandon on March 26, 2013 at 5:29 PM

Three simple words…

Seven Percent Solution on March 26, 2013 at 5:29 PM

Who knows? Maybe the GOP will lose the House in 2014.

steebo77 on March 26, 2013 at 5:24 PM

It does seem they have yet to learn the lesson about voting for buffoons in the primaries, doesn’t it?

alchemist19 on March 26, 2013 at 5:30 PM

What’s a redneck?

Bishop on March 26, 2013 at 5:30 PM

Who knows? Maybe the GOP will lose the House in 2014.

steebo77 on March 26, 2013 at 5:24 PM

This is the supreme strategy of Boehner and Rove. Once the GOP loses the House, then the press can no longer accuse them of being obstructionist, and every bill that passes will be entirely the democrats fault, like ObamaCare, Porkulus, and all the other bills that are currently bankrupting the country. The GOP is hoping to push off any legislation on immigration reform or gay marriage until after they lose the house, that way those will also be the Dems fault.

The voters will absolutely punish the Dems in the 2016 elections.

BobMbx on March 26, 2013 at 5:30 PM

What’s a redneck?

Bishop on March 26, 2013 at 5:30 PM

It’s what the gays call a dude’s…um…nevermind.

MadisonConservative on March 26, 2013 at 5:31 PM

What’s a redneck?

Bishop on March 26, 2013 at 5:30 PM

Snooty northerner: People who talk funny and hunt.

melle1228 on March 26, 2013 at 5:32 PM

Sanford will have this easy. I’ve heard he is assembling the TruCon dream team of Todd Akin, Christine O’Donnell and Sharon Angle as his brain trust. If only the backstabbing “establishment” “Republicans” like Rand Paul, Paul Ryan and Marco Rubio would just shut up and get in line behind him.

deadman on March 26, 2013 at 5:34 PM

I’ve asked it before to no avail, so I’ll ask it again:

Isn’t this the PERFECT opportunity for Rove’s group to get involved in a primary/runoff to avoid embarrassment in the general election?

steebo77 on March 26, 2013 at 5:37 PM

I’ve asked it before to no avail, so I’ll ask it again:

Isn’t this the PERFECT opportunity for Rove’s group to get involved in a primary/runoff to avoid embarrassment in the general election?

steebo77 on March 26, 2013 at 5:37 PM

Yeah you would think that Sanford would be an easy one that everyone would like to keep out of the race due to his baggage. I truly do not understand those “strategist” minds. I truly think they like losing.

melle1228 on March 26, 2013 at 5:39 PM

Yes, nominating this turkey CAN cost the GOP this seat.

michaelo on March 26, 2013 at 5:39 PM

Conservative voters tend to hold their officials accountable for their personal behavior. That’s how Pryor got elected in Arkansas, his opponent cheated on his wife.

Daemonocracy on March 26, 2013 at 5:40 PM

Armin Tamzarian on March 26, 2013 at 5:28 PM

No, seriously, what’s a “redneck”?

Bishop on March 26, 2013 at 5:42 PM

Will the GOP ever learn how to keep these dirtbags out of the running. Even when they have a sure thing the Republicans always find a way to lose.

rplat on March 26, 2013 at 5:44 PM

If this guy doesn’t step aside, we lose. We learned this lesson in Indiana, Missouri and Nevada. Primary voters can’t be trusted.

MTF on March 26, 2013 at 5:44 PM

No, seriously, what’s a “redneck”?

Bishop on March 26, 2013 at 5:42 PM

Hank Hill.

Punchenko on March 26, 2013 at 5:48 PM

Hmmmmmm,

who knew that a Affair Abroad,could bolster ones Polling numbers!!
(sarc)

canopfor on March 26, 2013 at 5:49 PM

Who’s this guy think he is, a Democrat?

mojo on March 26, 2013 at 5:49 PM

What’s a redneck?

Bishop on March 26, 2013 at 5:30 PM

Too much time in the sun without appropriate clothing or sunscreen.

kim roy on March 26, 2013 at 5:50 PM

No, seriously, what’s a “redneck”?

Bishop on March 26, 2013 at 5:42 PM


Bishop:Oh c’mon,its individuals that live near the equator,
and are Sun Worshippers,that inexplicably do not wear
clothing that covers the neck area,due to the closeness,
er,proximity of the Sun,there necks turn red,

if you live up North,us Canadians are called Cold Necks,due to
the harsh cold conditions that we live in,

it ain’t Rocket Science,………sheesh!!!!!
(snark):)

canopfor on March 26, 2013 at 5:55 PM

Bishop on March 26, 2013 at 5:30 PM

Too much time in the sun without appropriate clothing or sunscreen.

kim roy on March 26, 2013 at 5:50 PM

kim roy:Ya had to simplify it eh,haha!:)

canopfor on March 26, 2013 at 5:56 PM

Sanford makes Akin look like a good candidate.

besser tot als rot on March 26, 2013 at 5:59 PM

As Ted Cruz might say, Elizabeth Colbert Busch is “batcrap” ugly.

bw222 on March 26, 2013 at 5:59 PM

Sanford needs to crack some “Adam & Steve” jokes, and fast.

EddieC on March 26, 2013 at 5:59 PM

Will the GOP ever learn how to keep these dirtbags out of the running. Even when they have a sure thing the Republicans always find a way to lose

No. Flawed candidates such as Sanford get the utmost in GOP support. The party leadership considers the term “dirtbag” only for use in describing authentic squeaky clean conservatives, since such people tend to have platforms counter to party leadership desires.

hawkeye54 on March 26, 2013 at 5:59 PM

PPP definitely manipulates polls. Remember their poll that had Akin up 1 after his rape comments were all over the news? He even commented on it in a press conference as a reason he was staying in the race. What a dope! Anyway, all PPP has to do is normalize their methodology a few weeks before the election to preserve their reputation as an accurate polling firm.

Wigglesworth on March 26, 2013 at 6:01 PM

No, seriously, what’s a “redneck”?

Bishop on March 26, 2013 at 5:42 PM

A Scottish Presbyterian.

besser tot als rot on March 26, 2013 at 6:03 PM

kim roy:Ya had to simplify it eh,haha!:)

canopfor on March 26, 2013 at 5:56 PM

Nah you just expanded. It would make sense for Sanford (rather than Erickson) to be called a redneck what with his time in hot spots.

Wouldn’t you be called a “pale neck” because of the lack of sun in your igloo? ;)

kim roy on March 26, 2013 at 6:06 PM

What’s a redneck?

Bishop on March 26, 2013 at 5:30 PM

Perhaps Jeff Foxworthy can help.

wolfsDad on March 26, 2013 at 6:06 PM

Is Sanford’s image so tarnished that he’d actually put the seat in jeopardy by boosting turnout among Democrats and anti-Sanford independents?

Just as Akin wouldn’t step aside, neither will Sanford. There are several differences between Akin and Sanford: 1) Akin gave a stupid answer to a “gotcha” question; Sanford acted unethically; 2) Akin’s problem occurred by accident; Sanford created his problems; 3) Akin’s miscue happened after the primary; Sanford entered the primary knowing his conduct would create problems for the himself and the GOP.

bw222 on March 26, 2013 at 6:07 PM

Sanford entered the primary knowing his conduct would create problems for the himself and the GOP.

And the GOP willingly aids him? Is he really it this to ensure a democrat victory?

hawkeye54 on March 26, 2013 at 6:17 PM

Maybe Rove can get in and help Bostic?

Sarcastically, none of us want his involvement but a few extra $s for Bostic might help.

Tater Salad on March 26, 2013 at 6:18 PM

canopfor on March 26, 2013 at 5:56 PM

Nah you just expanded. It would make sense for Sanford (rather than Erickson) to be called a redneck what with his time in hot spots.

Wouldn’t you be called a “pale neck” because of the lack of sun in your igloo? ;)

kim roy on March 26, 2013 at 6:06 PM

kim roy:

Lol,that is a good one,”Pale Necks”,ummmmm,*Sun Lamps and a
generator* needed,er wait,,might not be too smart,on the ice,
haha!:)

canopfor on March 26, 2013 at 6:19 PM

PPP definitely manipulates polls. Remember their poll that had Akin up 1 after his rape comments were all over the news? He even commented on it in a press conference as a reason he was staying in the race. What a dope! Anyway, all PPP has to do is normalize their methodology a few weeks before the election to preserve their reputation as an accurate polling firm.

Wigglesworth on March 26, 2013 at 6:01 PM

Exactly they get in line close to election day. Even the boy genius at 538 acknowledged their record is spotty and had them in the bottom half of pollsters when ranked for accuracy. I am always questioning what they are up to with their polls. No matter what you say about accuracy some of their practices as pollsters are questionable at best.

If making a decision about the run-off, the best bet is to seriously evaluate the candidates. We know Sanford’s propensity for the exotic hiking trails of Appalachia but what are Bostwic’s problems? Is it just name recognition or is he an Akin waiting to bring negative attention to the right?

msmveritas on March 26, 2013 at 6:19 PM

Ann Coulter nailed this one.

bs4948800 on March 26, 2013 at 6:24 PM

And his potential opponent would be a Woman?

Who just happens to be Stephen Colberts sister-

who just happens to be divorced?

Anyone know the circumstances there?

Odds are her hubby dumped her for another woman. Maybe even a brunette.
Oh the irony.

Dem gets the square.

Rue the day- the War on wimmensz started.

FlaMurph on March 26, 2013 at 6:35 PM

I hope the Dem wins. Sanford is a piece of garbage who has no business holding political office ever again.

Jack_Burton on March 26, 2013 at 6:44 PM

I believe it. Does anyone here want to vote for Sanford? And we’re the people passionate about taking back the country. If you don’t recognize the problems democrats do, this won’t seem like a tough choice.

Sanford was an embarrassment before, and come election day he would be again.

amazingmets on March 26, 2013 at 6:49 PM

Hmmm. What’s a redneck?

Well, in the literal sense, I suppose it’s a feller who is so connected to the outdoors, either by profession or pastime, that the effects of the sun are always visible on his neck, which is never covered by any trendy hairstyle.

In the more figurative sense, a redneck is one who is presumed, by the self-anointed Liberal superior beings, to be a racist by virtue of his expectation of consistent reciprocally respectful social interactions- unchanging, noncondescending, and never lowered to account for race. And not residing in fashionable urban enclaves doesn’t favorably impress the superior beings, either.

M240H on March 26, 2013 at 6:55 PM

If there’s a silver lining for Bostic it’s that he still has a name recognition deficit

OK Fellow HotAirians we can all help to increase Curtis Bostic’s name recognition!

Here is a link to Curtis Bostic’s campaign website where you can learn more about him.

http://www.stopspending.com/

If we want Curtis Bostic to defeat Mark Sanford in the run-off election, we need to roll up our sleeves and get to work to help him. Post links to Curtis Bostic’s campaign website whenever this race is mentioned. Bostic’s website is very good so the website can close the sale once people know where to find his site.

Otherwise we will be stuck complaining about how embarassing Mark Sanford is for the next 2 years.

If you live in or near this South Carolina Congressional District, please keep us all posted on how Republican candidate Curtis Bostic is doing in this run-off race.

wren on March 26, 2013 at 7:01 PM

If I lived in SC, I’d vote for a gay Democrat kitten-strangler before Sanford. I’ve got standards, after all.

Splashman on March 26, 2013 at 7:09 PM

Ann Coulter nailed this one.

bs4948800 on March 26, 2013 at 6:24 PM

I

i couldn’t get thru more than half the Coulter piece. You see, the problem is that this is all about Sanford and the cult of the good old boy network and patting one another on the back.

Just like Todd Akin was all about, well, Todd Akin. These guys are perfectly happy to let the ‘party’ burn. If they are not on top, let it burn.

there’s a whole laundry list of these people…re-runs, known losers..like Allen, Tommy T….the list goes on. It is their party, we were just the fodder

r keller on March 26, 2013 at 7:36 PM

wren on March 26, 2013 at 7:01 PM

Agreed. Sent him twenty bucks a few days ago

M240H on March 26, 2013 at 7:36 PM

Exit question: How long before the Republicans start calling Sanford a “Tea Party candidate?”

Doomberg on March 26, 2013 at 5:23 PM

Answer: They don’t need to, that’s already established:

Olson, the South Carolina Tea Party leader, says he’d like to see besmirched Gov. Mark Sanford take on Graham.

“If he can overcome his infidelity issues, his core convictions are Tea Party principles. He could be embraced by the Tea Party,” Olson says.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2010/07/21/tea-party-hopes-mark-sanford-will-challenge-lindsey-graham.html

lester on March 26, 2013 at 7:47 PM

This is too much inside baseball for outsiders to follow. Here is what we want. SC, get your damn candidate, shut up and shove him/her/it hard to win. Don’t spread rumors or make it harder than it already is. For God’s sake, you put up with Lindsay Graham, no one can be worse than that.

Fleuries on March 26, 2013 at 8:02 PM

Agreed. Sent him twenty bucks a few days ago

M240H on March 26, 2013 at 7:36 PM

That is the type of pro-active team spirit our candidates need to see! Thank you M240H!

Based on this article, Republican Congressional candidate Curtis Bostic will appreciate all help with fundraising.

Sanford outraised his GOP runoff opponent by more than fifteen-to-one during the pre-runoff period, which ran from February 28 to March 13 — six days before the primary, in which Bostic finished a surprising second in the sixteen-candidate field.

Sanford raised $78,521 in the two-week pre-runoff period and ended with $271,765 in the bank, while Bostic reported a paltry $5,205 haul and loaned his own campaign another $50,000. Bostic has now loaned his campaign $150,000 and he finished the period with $56,542 on hand.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/blogs/hotlineoncall/2013/03/mark-sanford-outraises-curtis-bostic-fifteen-to-one-22

wren on March 26, 2013 at 8:14 PM

Whoever votes against Sanford because of his affair, rather than because of him being a fiscally conservative Republican, should lay off fluoride and bath salts.

Archivarix on March 26, 2013 at 8:21 PM

This is too much inside baseball for outsiders to follow.

Fleuries on March 26, 2013 at 8:02 PM

Here is a quick summary of this race.

Curtis Bostic and Mark Sanford will be running against each other in a runoff election for the Republican nomination for the South Carolina 1st Cogressional District seat on April 2 (that is NEXT Tuesday!).

The winner of the runoff election will run against Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch in the Special General Election on May 7th.

According to his campaign website http://www.stopspending.com/ Curtis Bostic:

- is a Marine who served in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait during operation Desert Storm

- Served 2 terms on the Charleston County Council

- Pro-Spending Cuts

- Pro-Job Creation and Economic Growth

- Pro- Limited, Constitutional Form of Government

- Pro-Life (Read his wife’s note on his facebook page to read their personal story that will bring a tear to your eye.)

- Pro-Traditional Marriage

- Pro-Israel

- Pro-Gun Rights

- Pro-Domestic Energy

- Pro-10th Amendment

- Pro-Parents’ Rights to Direct Education

- Pro-Religious Liberty

If we want more candidates with this wonderful profile to be in Congress, we need to support them when they run for office.

Please do what you can to help Curtis Bostic win the April 2 runoff election!

wren on March 26, 2013 at 8:34 PM

Whoever votes against Sanford because of his affair, rather than because of him being a fiscally conservative Republican, should lay off fluoride and bath salts.

Archivarix on March 26, 2013 at 8:21 PM

But on April 2nd, the voters in South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District will be making a choice between 2 fiscally conservative Republicans in the Republican runoff election

Curtis Bostic is fiscally conservative while also being faithful to his wife.

Mark Sanford is famous for lying about hiking on the Appalachian Trail when he was really in Argentina cheating on his wife.

I hope the voters in South Carolina vote for the Republican candidate that we can all be proud of on Tuesday April 2nd.

wren on March 26, 2013 at 8:44 PM

hope the Dem wins. Sanford is a piece of garbage who has no business holding political office ever again.

Jack_Burton on March 26, 2013 at 6:44 PM

I guess you missed the part about there being a run-off next week. That’s why everyone is talking about theis Bostic guy.

BuzzCrutcher on March 26, 2013 at 9:23 PM

I’ve asked it before to no avail, so I’ll ask it again:

Isn’t this the PERFECT opportunity for Rove’s group to get involved in a primary/runoff to avoid embarrassment in the general election?

steebo77 on March 26, 2013 at 5:37 PM

But then Sanford gets to run as the “anti-Rove” candidate. Staying out of this race is one of the few smart things Rove has done recently.

BuzzCrutcher on March 26, 2013 at 9:26 PM

The Charleston area proper is *quite* democrat in nature, but the district as a whole isn’t. I will be absolutely stunned if either GOP winner loses to the democrat–even if her only claim to fame is a famous brother whom the peninsula-living Charlestonians love.

SouthernGent on March 26, 2013 at 9:38 PM

Uh oh: Mark Sanford trails Democrat by two in hypothetical SC-1 match-up

…he hasn’t come out of the closet… yet!

KOOLAID2 on March 26, 2013 at 10:06 PM

This is an open runoff. Lots of registered Ds will be turning out to vote for Sanford. They will try to ensure that he is the R candidate that is most unpalatable to Rs in the general election.

They are banking on Rs staying home if Sanford is their candidate, and they have an R track record that just may prove them right.

bartonbulletin on March 26, 2013 at 10:14 PM

‘No, seriously, what’s a “redneck”?’

The term refers to the typical sunburn pattern poor white sharecroppers in the old south acquired while bent over working in the fields.

kd6rxl on March 27, 2013 at 12:26 AM