Video: Paul Ryan reveals Path to Prosperity 3.0

posted at 3:21 pm on March 12, 2013 by Allahpundit

Guy Benson has a useful bullet-point summary. This budget is less realistic than Ryan’s last two budgets, but that’s because the purpose of introducing a budget this year is different than it was the past two years. Philip Klein explains the wishful thinking involved:

Ryan’s budget is likely to come under criticism from several fronts, beyond the obvious attacks from Democrats that his plan would destroy Medicare. The issue he’s most vulnerable on is that while he calls for the repeal of Obamacare, he still assumes all of the Medicare savings from the law. As a vice presidential candidate, he supported Mitt Romney’s plan to restore all of those Medicare cuts. He also doesn’t offer any plan to reform the broader health care system beyond repealing Obamacare. On tax reform, he has deferred the details to the House Ways and Means committee.

A budget is a governing vision – an opening bid – and therefore it doesn’t necessarily have to reflect political reality. But at some point Ryan is going to have to grapple with the budget challenges assuming Obamacare is not repealed.

The last time he released a budget, the Supreme Court was set to strike down the mandate and the GOP was set to take back the White House. It was realistic at the time to game out a 10-year budget without O-Care; a year later, with the law having dodged both of those bullets, that’s not the case. Ryan was asked about that at today’s presser and said he’s confident ObamaCare will eventually collapse under its own weight, but even if that’s true, there’s no reason to believe the law’s demise will mean repeal rather than more regulation.

He’s also calling for balancing the budget in 10 years (with a small surplus as soon as 2023), rather than over the course of decades as the previous Paths to Prosperity imagined, and two income tax rates of 10 percent on the lower end and 25 percent on the higher end. Anyone see either of those things happening anytime soon? James Pethokoukis wonders:

The plan lowers the top tax rate to 25%, which, like an Obamacare repeal, ain’t going to happen. The reduction — the path to which remains unspecified — also will require fiscal gymnastics so as to a) not lose revenue and b) not raise taxes on the middle-class. Tax reform is an opportunity for the GOP to show it is the party of parents and kids, not just the party of heroic entrepreneurs and CEOs. Better to have a higher individual rate and dramatically reduce the current tax code’s bias against investment capital and human capital…

Why does the budget need to balance in ten years? Debt reduction doesn’t require balance, just that the economy is growing faster than the debt. While the plan does put the debt/GDP ratio on a downward trajectory — rather than merely stabilized as Obama and the Senate Democrats would do — it probably doesn’t need to be quite as steep.

How come this year’s budget is less realistic than it was the past two years? Simple: Because it can afford to be. Ryan had the stage largely to himself with the first two versions of Path to Prosperity; Democrats were too terrified of trying to reconcile their opposition to entitlement reform with, er, math to produce their own budget. Under normal circumstances his plan would be a partisan “opening bid” in budget negotiations, as Klein puts it, but under the unique circumstances of Democratic abdication, knowing that his plan would receive unusually close attention, he could be a bit more realistic about what sustainability would require long-term. Now, with Patty Murray and Senate Dems finally goaded into dropping another trillion-dollar tax bomb on the public, he can counter with the full GOP wish list — balanced books in 10 years, ObamaCare out the window, top rate that’s nearly 15 percent lower than it is now.

I think Ross Douthat’s right that that’s partly a concession to the caucus: After losing on the fiscal cliff and kicking the debt-ceiling can down the road, here’s where they get to flex some muscle and show what real fiscal discipline would look like. Besides, after being demagogued over his budget for two years plus a presidential campaign, Ryan must be feeling as though the Democrats have already emptied their arsenal against him. A former top aide to Pelosi admitted to WaPo that Obama’s budget attacks on Romney/Ryan last year didn’t matter much; at this point, if you’re an American voter and you haven’t yet been convinced that Paul Ryan personally wants to kill your grandma, you’ll never be convinced. So if you’re Ryan, why not let it all hang out this time? For once, there’ll be something to criticize on the other side. Start by demanding everything in your own offer and then try to deal.

Visit NBCNews.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

It has to be better than anything the Democrats have… I’m for it!!

Khun Joe on March 12, 2013 at 3:29 PM

I see an easy way out. With a change of adminisrtation we could just enforce Obamacare like we do gun and immigration laws.

DanMan on March 12, 2013 at 3:30 PM

All real budgetary commentary revolves around a simple truth:

not one red cent will be added to the deficit.

OhEssYouCowboys on March 12, 2013 at 3:31 PM

…the wishful thinking involved:

You can have wishful thinking or you can have deficits as far as the eye can see. I’m guessing the latter. And inflation.

Fenris on March 12, 2013 at 3:32 PM

If this is all Kabuki theatre, what is the point? It isn’t like you have allies in the media that will help you get out your message? And the GOP doesn’t have the stomach to fight. I just don’t get the pint of these imaginary budgets.

nyclakerfan on March 12, 2013 at 3:34 PM

I went right to Ryan’s numbers for Social Security. How much of a reduction in benefit payments is he calling for over the coming decade? ZERO. ZIP. NADA. How to describe this obvious political dodge of responsibility: Gutless? Weak? Spineless? Chicken-hearted? Cowardly? Wimpy? How about pusillanimous
-Bruce Krasting

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-03-12/even-cbo-snubs-ryan%E2%80%99s-budget-plan

But this guy’s the REAL conservative in the room?!?! Please.

abobo on March 12, 2013 at 3:34 PM

Keeps Obamacare taxes and tosses obamacare!

astonerii on March 12, 2013 at 3:35 PM

Ryan was asked about that at today’s presser and said he’s confident ObamaCare will eventually collapse under its own weight, but even if that’s true

It is true, and it seems the AP (not you AP, the other crappy AP) has finally realized what Obamacare really means when it actually hits all Americans in the balls later this year:

Applying for benefits under President Barack Obama’s health care overhaul could be as daunting as doing your taxes.

The government’s draft application runs 15 pages for a three-person family. An outline of the online version has 21 steps, some with additional questions
At least three major federal agencies, including the IRS, will scrutinize your application. Checking your identity, income and citizenship…That’s just the first part of the process…And it’s a mandate, not a suggestion…Some are concerned that a lot of uninsured people will be overwhelmed and simply give up.

Obamacare is going to kill is. There’s no two ways about it. Read the whole AP article, which they are calling an “Exclusive”. Which is stupid since we were saying this all along. But in their defence we were all racists back in 2009! I know that because the AP told me I was.

Weight of Glory on March 12, 2013 at 3:36 PM

Almost all the savings are at the tail end? I guess he imagines once passed the next year’s budget will remain true?

astonerii on March 12, 2013 at 3:36 PM

It has to be better than anything the Democrats have… I’m for it!!
Khun Joe on March 12, 2013 at 3:29 PM

Not to be a downer, but that’s the attitude that got us HW,W,McCain, and Mittens. The way I see it, either Ryan gets fully co-opted (already in the process) or he has less of a chance with the GOP elite than Kris(py) Kreme Kristie.

abobo on March 12, 2013 at 3:36 PM

*defense*

Weight of Glory on March 12, 2013 at 3:42 PM

Kabuki theater. Where was this backbone with the CR, which fully funds Obamacare in the interim? I’m not too terribly impressed at the moment.

totherightofthem on March 12, 2013 at 3:42 PM

He is right on one thing, Obamacare WILL collapse under it’s own weight; probably by 2015,

michaelo on March 12, 2013 at 3:42 PM

First… where is the snazzy commercial??? I demand my Paul Ryan budget commercial. Second, this is most definitely a goody for the base. This is the House Republicans carrot for being good soldiers during the debt ceiling debate.

Illinidiva on March 12, 2013 at 3:44 PM

He’s also calling for balancing the budget in 10 years

Anyone promising a fix in a 10 year time frame is lying to you.

House members run for reelection every 2 years. Senators every 6.

So Ryan is saying that his plan will come to fruition after 5 House cycles without anyone else changing anything in the meantime?

Paul, you are lying.

portlandon on March 12, 2013 at 3:46 PM

Paul Ryan is a fraud.

sauldalinsky on March 12, 2013 at 3:47 PM

RDE2010 on March 12, 2013 at 3:46 PM

It’s racist to quote the President out of the Congressional Record, which was probably started by slave-owners.

Drained Brain on March 12, 2013 at 3:48 PM

Paul Ryan is a fraud.

sauldalinsky on March 12, 2013 at 3:47 PM

+1

No one is serious in Washington.

Neither party has any intention of cutting a single penny…ever.

sharrukin on March 12, 2013 at 4:01 PM

Ryan is such a fraud.

Wigglesworth on March 12, 2013 at 4:04 PM

I need some schooling here. Has a massive bureaucratic mistake ever gone away because it collapsed under its own weight?

itsacookbook on March 12, 2013 at 4:07 PM

I need some schooling here. Has a massive bureaucratic mistake ever gone away because it collapsed under its own weight?

itsacookbook on March 12, 2013 at 4:07 PM

The Soviet Union?

sharrukin on March 12, 2013 at 4:10 PM

Ryan was asked about that at today’s presser and said he’s confident ObamaCare will eventually collapse under its own weight,

Too big to fail. Make no mistake….Ryan will lead the charge to provide emergency funding to keep ObamaCare open.

BobMbx on March 12, 2013 at 4:11 PM

The government’s draft application runs 15 pages for a three-person family. An outline of the online version has 21 steps, some with additional questions…
At least three major federal agencies, including the IRS, will scrutinize your application. Checking your identity, income and citizenship…That’s just the first part of the process…And it’s a mandate, not a suggestion…Some are concerned that a lot of uninsured people will be overwhelmed and simply give up.

All socialist tyranny’s have a common theme, and that is an obsession with forms and records. Fill this out, file that over there. Make a copy, and fill out the “Made A Copy” form and file it too. Don’t forget to fill out the “New Copy Form” form (making a copy of that and filing it…..)

Bless their hearts, its the records obsession which allows the conquering force to find out exactly who did what and when. For the trials….like Nuremburg.

BobMbx on March 12, 2013 at 4:18 PM

For once, there’ll be something to criticize on the other side. Start by demanding everything in your own offer and then try to deal.

Good idea..Ryan has a good plan..:)

Dire Straits on March 12, 2013 at 4:22 PM

The Soviet Union?

sharrukin on March 12, 2013 at 4:10 PM

The USSR didn’t collapse, Gorbachev wisely chose to romve Russia from a situation in which a negative birthrate combined with 12 Muslim nations would have no more Russia. Letting it burn in order to salvage something of the culture for future generations was one of the very few true acts of political courage ever witnessed. Fact is that Multi-culturalism is merely imperialism with an introspective lens.

abobo on March 12, 2013 at 4:28 PM

Good idea..Ryan has a good plan..:)

Dire Straits on March 12, 2013 at 4:22 PM

It won’t work. It has nothing to do with reality…BUT IT’S A GREAT PLAN! I like this plan! /

sharrukin on March 12, 2013 at 4:29 PM

Well, I for one, am waiting for Plan for Prosperity 4.0.

HerneTheHunter on March 12, 2013 at 4:33 PM

No more stinkin 10 year slow the rate of increase, and put all yer savings at the end where there is zero chance of it ever happening budgets. Show some cahones and put together two frikkin’ years that Cuts spending and halves the deficit.

Lipstick. Pig. Ryan. Bacon.

can_con on March 12, 2013 at 4:35 PM

Well, I for one, am waiting for Plan for Prosperity 4.0.

HerneTheHunter on March 12, 2013 at 4:33 PM

I am hoping it is his last year in office and we will not see any more from him.

astonerii on March 12, 2013 at 4:39 PM

sharrukin on March 12, 2013 at 4:29 PM

It has not been implemented so how do you know it will not work??..It is phased in over 10 years and keeps “the pain” to a minimum..:)

Dire Straits on March 12, 2013 at 4:40 PM

Paul Ryan, the boy wonder who dawned his tights and cape to be Romney’s Robin in their failed 2012 campaign, voted for most of Bush’s extravagant spending, including Medicare Part D entitlement expansion, Tarp, Auto Bailouts, etc. If it is a 10 year plan, automatically throw it in the garbage as a worthless kick of the can. Ryan has got to stop trying to charm the nation with his Norman Rockwellesque wonkish charades and get serious. Any plan must be completed in one presidential term, so that the people can monitor the progress on a daily, weekly, and monthly basis, not some decade long plan weighted to the out years. Better yet, complete it in one congressional term.

Tripwhipper on March 12, 2013 at 4:41 PM

I’ve concluded that the House Republican plan is to make Obama’s second term as BORING as possible.
It is predicated on having Congress do their jobs .. a real shock for our Senators.

What’s real interesting is that Ryan, without the help of the OMB and all the other Executive agencies has managed to have a budget before the President, who is now 5 weeks late according to 31 USC § 1105 (a).

J_Crater on March 12, 2013 at 4:42 PM

It has not been implemented so how do you know it will not work??..It is phased in over 10 years and keeps “the pain” to a minimum..:)

Dire Straits on March 12, 2013 at 4:40 PM

No Pain, No Gain.
Because we have a budget fight every year and every year the Republicans cave for more spending.
Because he is using Obamacare tax revenues for 3.8 trillion of the reduction of the deficit…
Because he did not touch Social Security, the primary driver of government spending.

Basically, this was a plan made to fall apart long before a vote comes to pass to give us hope so that we do not rebel.

astonerii on March 12, 2013 at 4:42 PM

The USSR didn’t collapse, Gorbachev wisely chose to romve Russia from a situation in which a negative birthrate combined with 12 Muslim nations would have no more Russia. Letting it burn in order to salvage something of the culture for future generations was one of the very few true acts of political courage ever witnessed. Fact is that Multi-culturalism is merely imperialism with an introspective lens.

abobo on March 12, 2013 at 4:28 PM

Gorbachev actually thought he could reform the Soviet Union. He had no idea of what he was unleashing or how to accomplish those reforms. He did not understand power, economics, or people. He left agriculture shackled by communist regulations while unleashing political reforms. Hungry people do not care about voting or freedom if they have no food and no shoes.

He was a fool. He didn’t know how to reform a dictatorial system, he lacked the will to be either a dictator, or a democratic leader.

I am a Communist, a convinced Communist! For some that may be a fantasy. But to me it is my main goal. – Gorbachev

“But nevertheless, I did say, ‘I think you Americans need your own Perestroika.’ And 12,000 people rose from their seats and gave me an ovation. And I think that the elections that followed brought a new spirit to America. Of course, there are many people who don’t like what President Obama is doing. But, my opinion of him is very [favorable]. I will support him. However, there are still vested interests who want another Cold War, another arms race, weapons trade, interventions. They will not succeed.” – Gorbachev

sharrukin on March 12, 2013 at 4:44 PM

astonerii on March 12, 2013 at 4:42 PM

Tides change..Can’t have all pain on front end..That would create chaos..:)

Dire Straits on March 12, 2013 at 4:46 PM

It has not been implemented so how do you know it will not work??..

Dire Straits on March 12, 2013 at 4:40 PM

Same way I knew that Plan 1.0 wouldn’t work, and how I knew Plan 2.0 wouldn’t work. Spooky how a look at reality, politics and past behavior can allow one to predict the future isn’t it?

Hot tip; sticking a fork in your eye will hurt! I have never implemented this plan I admit, so I cannot know with absolute certainty, but I predict that it will hurt based on a number of differing factors.

sharrukin on March 12, 2013 at 4:48 PM

A budget is a governing vision – an opening bid – and therefore it doesn’t necessarily have to reflect political reality. But at some point Ryan is going to have to grapple with the budget challenges assuming Obamacare is not repealed.

Funny that, I don’t remember the same yardstick ever being metered out when the President releases a budget.

Genuine on March 12, 2013 at 4:52 PM

sharrukin on March 12, 2013 at 4:48 PM

All of Ryan’s plan will not get implemented..But with the Senate doing a budget Some of it will..:)

PS..Ryan’s plan provides less pain for the majority of people..:)

Dire Straits on March 12, 2013 at 4:54 PM

Funny that, I don’t remember the same yardstick ever being metered out when the President releases a budget.

Genuine on March 12, 2013 at 4:52 PM

Very good point..:)

Dire Straits on March 12, 2013 at 4:55 PM

If the GOP insists on continuing federal social programs that are bankrupting our country and causing moral decay, then they ought to at least have the guts to insist on franchise suspension for any American that sucks off the federal social spending teat.

TXJenny on March 12, 2013 at 5:07 PM

It has not been implemented so how do you know it will not work??..

Dire Straits on March 12, 2013 at 4:40 PM

I really hope the plan is DOA. Let’s do simple math, which even the best math genius in the House cannot seem to comprehend. With his own numbers:

Projected deficit over next 10 years, BASED on TODAY’s numbers and going forward: $46 TRILLION. Paul’s numbers and I am sure that is a low ball number.

Projected intake over next 10 years, BASED on TODAY’s numbers, actually last year’s and we all know they were a tad high due to all the companies and folks selling off assets in order not to be hit with the new 3.9 tax this year: $27 TRILLION.

Paul’s brilliant, brilliant I tell you, plan, is to cut just $5 TRILLION over same 10 years. When actual deficit is projected to be what, $18 TRILLION? Wow, we will only add roughly $13 TRILLION to current deficit as based on his proposal. What a deal! You want another bridge with that?

And we’re asking what’s wrong with our education system when simple arithmetic is way beyond comprehension to most adults. How difficult is it to subtract 27 from 45 to see that only a complete, utter moron cannot see that we are 18 TRILLION in the whole and actually more than that once all the freeloaders and illegals get MORE of FREE in the next 10 years as these programs keep expanding at an ever increasing rate. After they all get free phones, what’s next, free TVs, free cars? With free medicine kicking in for millions more next year. Who’s paying for it all, Paul’s personal bank account?

Math is hard, it seems, once you are elected to Congress. But, eyah, Paul is the “future of GOP”, as GOP keeps telling us.

riddick on March 12, 2013 at 5:20 PM

Ryans BluePrint:

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/PaulRyanfy14budget.pdf

(91 Pages)

canopfor on March 12, 2013 at 5:24 PM

Democrats bash Ryan budget as ‘radical’ retread
By Mike Lillis – 03/12/13 11:42 AM ET

Congressional Democrats came out swinging Tuesday after GOP leaders introduced a 2014 budget blueprint that would cut $5.7 trillion in spending over the next decade.

The lawmakers say the Republicans’ budget plan, unveiled by House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), protects the wealthy at the expense of more vulnerable people, such as seniors and the poor.

Echoing the criticisms leveled at previous budgets from Ryan, the Democrats placed particular emphasis on provisions that would cut Medicare for future beneficiaries.

“Spring always brings Republican March Madness, when they try to end the Medicare guarantee for seniors,” Rep. Steve Israel (N.Y.), head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said in a statement. “With the Ryan budget today, Tea Party Republicans are tripling down on a radical plan that demands seniors pay more for Medicare instead of ending tax breaks for corporate special interests and Big Oil companies.”

Rep. Chris Van Hollen (Md.), senior Democrat on the Budget Committee, piled on, saying Ryan’s plan “represents more of the same — undermining job growth, ending the Medicare guarantee, and slashing critical investments in our future.”

Senate Democrats were quick to join the chorus, with Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) accusing Republicans of offering “more tax breaks for the wealthy, an end to Medicare as we know it and draconian cuts to education and other programs that help America’s economy grow and prosper.”

“It’s everything but balanced,” Reid said on the chamber floor.

Released Tuesday, Ryan’s 2014 budget plan would balance the budget over 10 years by cutting $5.7 trillion in projected spending, scaling back Medicare benefits to people currently younger than 55 and reducing federal outlays to 19.1 percent of the economy by 2023, down from 22.2 percent now.

Under the plan, those who turn 65 years old in 2024 and beyond could opt into private insurance coverage, in lieu of Medicare, and receive “premium support” payments from the federal government. The provision is very similar to the one included in Ryan’s 2013 budget, which the Congressional Budget Office estimated would push thousands of dollars of new costs on seniors.

Republicans defended the plan this week, arguing that Medicare spending is unsustainable and the program needs an overhaul.

“The other side will demagogue this issue. But remember: Anyone who attacks our Medicare proposal without offering a credible alternative is complicit in the program’s demise,” Ryan said Monday.

Ryan’s proposal would also hike defense spending by $500 billion over a decade and lower the top tax rate from 39.6 to 25 percent.

“We don’t think it’s fair to take more from hard-working families to spend more in Washington,” Ryan said Tuesday in introducing the plan.

Behind Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.), Senate Democrats are expected to propose a competing budget proposal later in the week — their first in four years.

Unlike Ryan’s proposal, the Democratic plan is expected to include tax increases.

http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-money/budget/287585-democrats-bash-ryan-budget-as-radical-retread

canopfor on March 12, 2013 at 5:29 PM

He is right on one thing, Obamacare WILL collapse under it’s own weight; probably by 2015,

michaelo on March 12, 2013 at 3:42 PM

when we get single-payer.

Ryan is clueless. This is not a budget, it is a campaign advertisement, and a pretty poor one at that. Garbage in, garbage out.

Mr. Arkadin on March 12, 2013 at 6:32 PM