Obama drops 10% in one month. In… New York?
posted at 9:21 am on March 12, 2013 by Jazz Shaw
What with the recent changes to various regulatory aspects regarding the lives of American citizens I was expecting a bit of backlash against President Obama, but I certainly didn’t see this coming.
President Barack Obama’s approval rating in New York fell precipitously in the past month, according to a poll released Monday, and three-fifths of the state’s registered voters now believe the country is heading in the wrong direction.
Obama’s approval rating remains high in New York, at 56 percent, with 41 percent disapproving, according to the Siena College poll.
But the president’s approval rating was at 66 percent last month, with only 32 percent disapproval — so the change is a net 19 point decline.
“President Obama’s favorability rating dropped significantly this month,” Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said.
Yes, 56% is still nothing to sneeze at, but this is a state where Obama won 63.33% of the vote to Mitt Romney’s 35.19% in 2012, and that wasn’t a particularly high turnout cycle. At other times he’s been much closer to 70. What does Siena attribute it to? New Yorkers feel that the country is on the wrong track by a margin of 60 to 32. But I suspect there’s something more to the story. At the same time, Andrew Cuomo has dipped to 64% when he was at 67-29 last month and in the seventies last year. What’s the connection?
My guess is that the liberal wing has overplayed its hand in the Empire state, sending even borderline supporters upstate heading for the exits. Even in a decidedly liberal state, Cuomo has been on the Obama bandwagon, but putting it on steroids. Cuomo signed a gun control bill which is becoming increasingly unpopular as people find out more about it. He also passed an abortion bill which even had nominally pro-choice voters asking what the heck was going on. (The procedure can be performed by people who aren’t doctors???)
This is a formula for opportunity for the GOP if they play their cards right. No, I don’t expect New York to suddenly turn red in 2016, but there will be a lot of congressional districts – as well as state Senate and assembly seats – where the worm may turn back a bit. When you grab for too much at one time you lose the middle, and that’s what I think is happening here right now.