Can Romney win Michigan?
posted at 2:41 pm on March 12, 2013 by Ed Morrissey
No, this isn’t a rerun of the Republican presidential primaries or the 2012 general election — and we’re not talking about Mitt. Rather, it’s his brother Scott who may soon vie for the US Senate seat being vacated by retiring incumbent Carl Levin, and the son of the former governor may end up battling against the most recent former occupant of the office. In a poll sponsored by Conservative Intelligence Briefing, Romney outpolls all other Republicans in the field and manages a dead heat against the top Democratic possibility, Jennifer Granholm:
In a hypothetical Republican Senate primary for the 2014 Michigan U.S. Senate race, Scott Romney (brother of Mitt) would begin the race as an early, though modest, front-runner Romney leads with 26% followed by Congressman Mike Rogers at 17%, Congressman Justin Amash at 11% and former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land at 9%. …
Democrats hold a +4% advantage on the generic ballot for Senate (43%-39%), which closely follows the partisan breakdown of the poll: 41% Democratic, 38% Republican, 21% Other. President Obama’s job approval among 2014 likely voters in Michigan is -4% (44% approve, 48% disapprove).
In general election match-ups Granholm holds slim margins over the field of Republicans, ranging from +8% over Amash to +2% over Rogers.
Granholm can’t get outside of the margin of error against either Rogers, Land, or Romney, and even the eight-point lead against Amash might be a warning to Michigan Democrats. After all, Granholm won statewide office while most of her opponents have not, and yet can’t get above 43% in matchups against any of them. She only manages to get the lead over Amash due to his lack of recognition; only 18% know who the Congressman is. As one of John McCain’s so-called “wacko birds” of the Tea Party, Amash might be Granholm’s preferred candidate, but his upside is a lot more significant than hers. Her favorability is only 47/43, leaving only 10% to address, while Amash’s is 18/8 while unknown to 53%.
Scott Romney didn’t have a high profile in the presidential campaign, but Mitt’s older brother has been active in Michigan politics for some time. In 2008, he lost his seat on the Michigan State University board of trustees after one term, but had tried originally to run for Attorney General in 1998. That sparked an intraparty fight which Romney lost despite having the endorsement of Republican governor John Engler at the time; John Smietanka ended with the nomination, but lost to the Democrat. Her name? Jennifer Granholm.
Don’t underestimate Democratic power in Michigan, but if Granholm is the best they have, it might be a horserace no matter who Republicans nominate. Don’t forget, too, that the recent change of Michigan to a right-to-work state will weaken union support. Levin’s unexpected retirement should be a gift to the GOP.
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Actually, I heard O’bama got 115% of the vote in Philadelphia in 2012.
More votes than actual voters! What a country!
Del Dolemonte on March 23, 2013 at 2:28 PM
Dr Carson would win a high percentage of the western MI votes. The dems have a weak bench for any statewide office. They are going to have a hard time finding top tier candidates for the state level statewide offices, let alone a senate seat that is wide open.
The voters outside of Setroit are going to be highly motivated to keep the GOP in power to a lid that cesspool from sucking our money down that rathole. Most of us would prefer just to give that city to Canada!! (Sorry Canada).
Also, while our guv is a pretty squishy social moderate, he has been highly successful in turning this state around. He worked on the structural deficit problem. He got rid of the idiotic business tax here that even caused unprofitable businesses to have a tax liability which is just strange. It got replaced with something that doesn’t drive business away.
The voters are going to want to protect the new right to work legislation that goes into effect this coming week. The unions are still having temper tantrums over in Lansing. Ironically, they were outside the Capitol building last week while the various tea party groups were inside lobbying against the last chance to fund the obamacare state/fed exchange. The legislature is more conservative than the guv and they are not letting him cozy up to the obamacare bribes to have a MI run state exchange. They adjourned last week and won’t be back at work until after the 4/1 deadline to fund these exchanges.
Dr. Carson would have broad support in MI. He could win this race.
And people are enthusiastic about him because he has been the first person to take it directly to Obama when Obama was sitting 3 feet away!!! And if you study his speaking manner, he does this without being disagreeable and nasty in the process. As Rush has said, the left wont be able to demonize this guy without looking foolish to the low information voters.
karenhasfreedom on March 23, 2013 at 2:30 PM
Pope Francis is resigning?
Rusty Allen on March 23, 2013 at 3:30 PM
we dont need any more anti-gun politicians.
TX-96 on March 23, 2013 at 3:56 PM
Now you’re talkin’
Cleombrotus on March 23, 2013 at 6:27 PM
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