That said, everyone seems to be discounting the capabilities of the ROK, and I assure you, the South is NOT a push-over militarily.

PJ Emeritus on March 11, 2013 at 11:35 AM

This is all opinion and conjecture based on my military experience with the South Korean military and our U.S. presence there. Much of it is outdated so any mistakes I make are my own and any corrections gratefully solicited.

All available evidence from a few years ago was that the North had the wherewithal to physically push to Seoul and, depending on grabbing a bridge (they are all rumored to be rigged with explosives, I know they were in the 70’s) across the Han river they might get a few miles further south before their steam and logistics ran out.

It would be a very violent and bloody war and almost certainly our president will be faced with the possible first nuclear strike. That’s always been a kind of ‘open secret” that there is very little else we can do to protect our citizens.

Since my military days we’ve (finally!) moved the Americans off the DMZ but have actually put them, our fighters, SOUTH of many of their own families in Seoul.

The NKs could possible trap upwards of a quarter million American civilians and REMFs in Seoul. I believe the NKs plan has always been to bombard Seoul into rubble with their horrifically accurate large rocket artillery.

Any American president, R or D is going to be hard pressed not to go nuclear rather early. He or She would really have no other option. We often forget that one of the early attractions of nuclear weapons was their affordability. We used to plan on putting nukes where we couldn’t afford to put 500,000 troops. That was the strategy in Korea in the 50s and even though that’s no longer the conventional thinking we’ve done nothing else to replace those nukes.

I can’t see how we can’t use them when tens of thousands American women and children are in danger.

My bottom line: In any scenario the NKs lose; decisively.

But not without a butcher’s bill of casualties including American and SK civilians and probably a nuclear exchange.

PJ Emeritus on March 11, 2013 at 11:35 AM

I cross-trained with ROKs many years ago. You’re right: they’re tough and capable. Their leadership would also be a targeting priority for one of the estimated five or six nuclear bombs in North Korea’s arsenal.

That said, it simply doesn’t matter that North Korea would lose any conflict with South Korea and the United States in any given scenario, even if China militarily intercedes on North Korea’s behalf as it did in the first Korean War. North Korea’s leadership does not perceive the world in terms normal human beings would understand. They draw on a frame of reference antithetical to reality. The North Korean military will swarm that border on command and move forward irrespective of losses and keep going until they are all dead.

MAD worked with the Russians because the Soviet Politboro, as a whole, were rational men, comfortable with their dachas in the country on the weekends and the other perks that went with Inner Party membership. They weren’t exactly intent on going out in a blaze of revolutionary glory. Not so North Korea.

SC.Charlie on March 11, 2013 at 11:19 AM

The North Koreans have the means to deliver a nuclear device, the latest iteration of the Nodong-1 which, as you may know, is the progenitor of the Shahab-3 missile, built by Iran with love. The latest version of the Nodong missile system is perfectly capable of hitting Seoul and possibly even Tokyo or even–somewhat remotely–San Francisco. However, if push came to shove, a few very dedicated North Korean soldiers and technicians could use a truck and just take a one-way trip to Seoul. Although not exactly porous, the border between North and South Korea is comparatively long, and no national border is airtight. Regarding your second point, there has been some conjecture that North Korea has already sold a nuclear device to Iran. Their latest nuclear test involved two bombs. One of those two could have been proof of product for Iran. Who knows? The Iranians aren’t talking, that’s for sure.

People put too much emphasis on Chinese influence with North Korea. The North Korean military no doubt noted with interest China’s failed attempt to invade an independent-minded client state, Vietnam, in 1979, and learned a few lessons from it. Comes to that, I’m guessing the Chinese are as uncertain as everyone else what the latest North Korean mad dictator may or may not do. I’m guessing the Chinese are attempting to find out right about now what concessions Kim Jong Un is after. Once they find out, they’ll do all they can to persuade us to give it to him. If a shooting war starts, China could go either way. China has generals of its own to mollify, after all.

So I guess we are technically at war?

That said, everyone seems to be discounting the capabilities of the ROK, and I assure you, the South is NOT a push-over militarily.

Currently the North Koreans don’t have a means of delivering a nuclear device. And, personally I don’t expect for the regime to become anymore sane in the near future. Should we wait until they have the means to deliver a nuclear device and sell such devices to Iran and other rogue anti-western regimes?

SC.Charlie on March 11, 2013 at 10:40 AM

You’re assuming rational actors acting rationally. A reasonably sane government, no matter how bloodthirsty or authoritarian, would seek a way out that did not involve national suicide. However, totalitarian societies drive people insane, both oppressors and oppressed. A blockade would result in a nuclear response in tandem with a ground invasion of the south. In fact, the only way the Norks could prevent immediate destruction of their army would be by closing with South Korean and American armies as quickly as they could. However, I doubt nuclear catastrophe is Kim Jong Un’s intent.

Kim Jong Un is new to command. He needs to prove himself to his generals. I’m sure he loves living as much as he loves basketball but he won’t be alive for long if he doesn’t have the support of his military. Thus, he goes all in with bellicose provocations. The idea, I guess, is to bring tensions high enough to force some kind of concessions from South Korea’s new president, who happens to be a woman.

The US and S. Korea could temporarily suspend joint military exercises. That’s the quick and easy way out. It would give the Norks the concession they’re after, one they can trumpet as a great victory, which would then cement military loyalty to Kim Jong Un.

If, however, Kim Jong Un can’t spin a victory out of this mess by squeezing some kind of concession from the US or S. Korea, he’ll have to escalate hostilities until he does force concessions. He absolutely cannot afford to lose face, especially not to a woman.

Oh, I didn’t mean to keep the status quo from our end. If we’re sending aid, we should just tell Kimmy ant parts of the supply line we provide are cut like the phone lines. Problem is, Obama and Kerry would never do that.

Liam on March 11, 2013 at 9:37 AM

Got it…and yes, it’s just not possible with this administration…so more men will die because of inaction.

Eagle landed – South Korea. Kickin’ off this global beast of a press tour. #Seoul #BringIt #GIJoe twitter.com/TheRock/status…— Dwayne Johnson (@TheRock) March 10, 2013

Lourdes on March 11, 2013 at 9:47 AM

I can see the Administration’s next moves:

Dennis Rodman gets the Congressional Medal of Freedom, while the Rock gets sent to prison for Logan Act violations.

troyriser_gopftw on March 11, 2013 at 10:16 AM

You used to have such an agency – it was called OSS.

One can dream.

Send in the Drones.

bgibbs1000 on March 11, 2013 at 9:31 AM

♪ Send in the drones. Don’t bother, they’re here.♫

The hyenas are nipping at the lion’s heels.

tdarrington on March 11, 2013 at 10:00 AM

That’s not good! A pack of hyenas can bring a lion to its knees.

[T]heir [China's] recent endorsement of sanctions seems to be sending Pyongyang a message that they’re not receiving. E.M.

The single biggest problem in communication is the illusion that it has taken place.

G.B.Shaw