ADP: 198,000 private-sector jobs added in February
posted at 8:41 am on March 6, 2013 by Ed Morrissey
With the BLS jobs report due on Friday, we once again start looking at the precursor data. ADP, the payroll-processing giant, predicts that the US added 198,0000 jobs in the previous month, which would be a relatively positive report — if reliable:
Private sector employment increased by 198,000 jobs from January to February, according to the February ADP National Employment Report® , which is produced by ADP® , a leading provider of human capital management solutions, in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally adjusted basis. The January 2013 report, which reported job gains of 192,000, was revised upward by 23,000 to 215,000 jobs.
That’s one issue with ADP’s reliability. Their original January analysis overshot the BLS report by 35,000, as the government only showed a water-treading level of 157,000 jobs added. The BLS could certainly revise the previous report, but a revision of that size would have eyes popping and critics demanding some answers. Despite their efforts to reform their analysis to make it more predictive, it seems that it’s still a good idea to use a 60-80% rule when it comes to ADP, whose analyses usually are valuable in defining trends rather than data points. That would put a good guess at Friday’s BLS number at around 160,000 — another water-treading number, and more in line with the economic data coming from January.
In fact, that’s what the market more or less expects, too, according to CNBC:
Private companies added 198,000 jobs in February, well ahead of analyst estimates and indicating that the labor market is continuing to thaw, according to a report Wednesday.
Economists had expected the count by ADP and Moody’s Analytics to show 170,000 new positions.
The report comes two days before the Department of Labor releases its nonfarm payrolls total, which likely will show a net of 152,000 new positions. The Labor numbers include government positions.
Gallup isn’t quite as optimistic. Two weeks ago, they reported that jobseekers couldn’t find any momentum toward “quality” jobs in the market. Their last weekly payroll-to-population figure dropped two tenths of a point to 43.3%, and their take on the unemployment rate (corresponding to the BLS U-3 number) rose two tenths of a point to 8.1%. Gallup surveys roughly parallel those of the BLS Household Survey, which at least theoretically makes it a better predictor for BLS data.
Either way, the numbers don’t show any real momentum to the scale of job creation needed to re-employ the millions that left the workforce in hopelessness over the last five years. We need a lot more than 198,000 jobs per month to get those workers back in the workforce.
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I wonder if Obama is envious?
pat on May 15, 2013 at 9:25 PM
Obama can offer some tips on how to jump start a country..
No..
Seriously..
Electrongod on May 15, 2013 at 9:25 PM
Maybe it is time to look at the Socialist Ideology behind their economic policies…?
Seven Percent Solution on May 15, 2013 at 9:26 PM
Guess I’d better get rid of those euros that I have left from my trip to Ireland in March, eh?
Bob's Kid on May 15, 2013 at 9:26 PM
BREAKING:
Other People’s money runs out; EU in decline.
BobMbx on May 15, 2013 at 9:27 PM
I wonder if Obama knows.
Well, it is on the news so there’s a chance.
BobMbx on May 15, 2013 at 9:28 PM
Huh, maybe someone should’ve warned them or something.
squint on May 15, 2013 at 9:33 PM
As Maggie Thatcher was wont to say, “Sooner or later they run out of other peoples money.”
Screw the EU…
Scrumpy on May 15, 2013 at 9:36 PM
…JugEars:like everything else…”I first learned about this…from news reports…like everybody else!”
KOOLAID2 on May 15, 2013 at 9:41 PM
Once upon a time, America had an economy strong enough to lead the world out of recessions.
Then, Progressives came along and America changed.
MTF on May 15, 2013 at 9:46 PM
Hmmmm…..seems all that “free stuff” in the EU wasn’t “free” after all.
Is Barry taking notes?
GarandFan on May 15, 2013 at 9:48 PM
You know it is time for personal intervention when you are reading about economics and politics on HA while the tornado sirens are blaring outside.
Limerick on May 15, 2013 at 9:49 PM
This isn’t good for North America, either.
rickv404 on May 15, 2013 at 9:50 PM
They need a real federal system like we have in the US. That way, the left can screw around until Mercedes looks like GM and Germany goes the way of Michigan.
Then they blame the Swiss or British investors and bankers.
They don’t have our racism but with a little imagination they can whip up a decent copy in reliving wars or soccer games which didn’t work out like they wanted. Ok, it is lame but their version of a Harley sounds like a sewing machine, anyway.
IlikedAUH2O on May 15, 2013 at 9:59 PM
The only way for the Euroweenies to get out of these awful economic doldrums is to raise taxes.
SparkPlug on May 15, 2013 at 9:59 PM
Downward spiral? Wait till they hit Barock bottom.
SparkPlug on May 15, 2013 at 10:00 PM
Green shoots!!
ThePrimordialOrderedPair on May 15, 2013 at 10:02 PM
I find this bit of “news” interesting because there was never much popular support for the EU. They had to stop holding referenda for their retarded Constitution because it went down in flames the few times it was tried (so they then snuck it in by calling it the Lisbon TREATY, instead … and as a TREATY it didn’t need a plebiscite … yup).
Maybe support has dipped even further but the EU was never able to withstand any popular vote. Heck, in Britain they made a sport of intentionally not letting anyone vote on anything about it.
All that said, Eurotrash is just doing what Eurotrash does … killing themselves and destroying everything within arm’s length of them. They’ve been pulling this destructive suicidal junk for almost a century, now.
Let us not forget that Barky was always a bigger hit in Europe than he ever was, here. Heck, the biggest political rally (possibly in history) was Barky’s illegal, un-Constitutional, un-American and offensive Berlin rally for Germans. Barky never should have been allowed to return to the US after that. The Eurotrash loved him … they should have been forced to keep the retard.
ThePrimordialOrderedPair on May 15, 2013 at 10:07 PM
Can I buy Spain yet on Ebay?
Capitalist Hog on May 15, 2013 at 10:11 PM
How long before they change the EU to eewwww?
socalcon on May 15, 2013 at 11:00 PM
Just as a technical reminder – European GDP estimates are not annualized, so if one wants to compare it to what the BEA puts out there, multiply by 4 to get a close-enough-for-government-work approximation. That makes the overall rate -0.8%, and Germany’s rate +0.4%, on an annualized basis.
As for the continued German support for the pEU, they must be thinking that Brussels is once again in Greater Germany.
Steve Eggleston on May 15, 2013 at 11:26 PM
S&H is going to kill you.
trigon on May 15, 2013 at 11:47 PM
Totally agreed!!
jimver on May 16, 2013 at 2:10 AM
If we had accurate data, instead of politically massaged propaganda, we would see Europe is not alone.
dogsoldier on May 16, 2013 at 8:02 AM
Not yet. But I wouldn’t say it’s impossible that we’ll see such a thing in our lifetimes.
We’re getting a front-row seat at the final stages of what happens to nations that subscribe to some moronic liberal sing-around-the-campfire version of international unity, with a generous dose of economic socialism used in the recipe.
MelonCollie on May 16, 2013 at 8:14 AM