Great news: Q4 GDP rises to +0.1%
posted at 9:31 am on February 28, 2013 by Ed Morrissey
It beats contraction, which was the result of the initial estimate a month ago, but not by much. The Commerce Department’s estimate of fourth-quarter economic growth improved to 0.1%, a rise of only two-tenths of a point, in the routine second iteration:
Real gross domestic product –the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States –increased at an annual rate of 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012 (that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent.
The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “advance” estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, real GDP declined 0.1 percent. The upward revision to the percent change in real GDP is smaller than the average revision from the advance to second estimate of 0.5 percentage point. While today’s release has revised the direction of change in real GDP, the general picture of the economy for the fourth quarter remains largely the same as what was presented last month (for more information, see “Revisions” on page 3).
I’m actually a little surprised that it didn’t go up more. Later economic indicator reports for December made it seem that the initial estimate would get a substantial upward revision. The key indicator of real final sales of domestic product rose more significantly, from 1.1% in the initial estimate to 1.7% in today’s report. That’s not a robust number either, but the increase there with a lack of overall increase says that inventory depletion must have taken a bigger bite than first thought.
Reuters’ economists are less than impressed, too:
Gross domestic product expanded at a 0.1 percent annual rate, the Commerce Department said on Thursday, missing the 0.5 percent gain forecast by analysts in a Reuters poll.
The growth rate was the slowest since the first quarter of 2011 and far from what is needed to fuel a faster drop in the unemployment rate.
However, much of the weakness came from a slowdown in inventory accumulation and a sharp drop in military spending. These factors are expected to reverse in the first quarter.
Consumer spending was more robust by comparison, although it only expanded at a 2.1 percent annual rate.
Bear in mind that Q4 was the Christmas season, and one would expect consumer spending to perk up. This is still an indicator that the economy remains moribund, and one would expect that the final estimate won’t change much from here. The only bright spots — real final sales and consumer spending — are still in the 10-watt range.
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I wonder if Obama is envious?
pat on May 15, 2013 at 9:25 PM
Obama can offer some tips on how to jump start a country..
No..
Seriously..
Electrongod on May 15, 2013 at 9:25 PM
Maybe it is time to look at the Socialist Ideology behind their economic policies…?
Seven Percent Solution on May 15, 2013 at 9:26 PM
Guess I’d better get rid of those euros that I have left from my trip to Ireland in March, eh?
Bob's Kid on May 15, 2013 at 9:26 PM
BREAKING:
Other People’s money runs out; EU in decline.
BobMbx on May 15, 2013 at 9:27 PM
I wonder if Obama knows.
Well, it is on the news so there’s a chance.
BobMbx on May 15, 2013 at 9:28 PM
Huh, maybe someone should’ve warned them or something.
squint on May 15, 2013 at 9:33 PM
As Maggie Thatcher was wont to say, “Sooner or later they run out of other peoples money.”
Screw the EU…
Scrumpy on May 15, 2013 at 9:36 PM
…JugEars:like everything else…”I first learned about this…from news reports…like everybody else!”
KOOLAID2 on May 15, 2013 at 9:41 PM
Once upon a time, America had an economy strong enough to lead the world out of recessions.
Then, Progressives came along and America changed.
MTF on May 15, 2013 at 9:46 PM
Hmmmm…..seems all that “free stuff” in the EU wasn’t “free” after all.
Is Barry taking notes?
GarandFan on May 15, 2013 at 9:48 PM
You know it is time for personal intervention when you are reading about economics and politics on HA while the tornado sirens are blaring outside.
Limerick on May 15, 2013 at 9:49 PM
This isn’t good for North America, either.
rickv404 on May 15, 2013 at 9:50 PM
They need a real federal system like we have in the US. That way, the left can screw around until Mercedes looks like GM and Germany goes the way of Michigan.
Then they blame the Swiss or British investors and bankers.
They don’t have our racism but with a little imagination they can whip up a decent copy in reliving wars or soccer games which didn’t work out like they wanted. Ok, it is lame but their version of a Harley sounds like a sewing machine, anyway.
IlikedAUH2O on May 15, 2013 at 9:59 PM
The only way for the Euroweenies to get out of these awful economic doldrums is to raise taxes.
SparkPlug on May 15, 2013 at 9:59 PM
Downward spiral? Wait till they hit Barock bottom.
SparkPlug on May 15, 2013 at 10:00 PM
Green shoots!!
ThePrimordialOrderedPair on May 15, 2013 at 10:02 PM
I find this bit of “news” interesting because there was never much popular support for the EU. They had to stop holding referenda for their retarded Constitution because it went down in flames the few times it was tried (so they then snuck it in by calling it the Lisbon TREATY, instead … and as a TREATY it didn’t need a plebiscite … yup).
Maybe support has dipped even further but the EU was never able to withstand any popular vote. Heck, in Britain they made a sport of intentionally not letting anyone vote on anything about it.
All that said, Eurotrash is just doing what Eurotrash does … killing themselves and destroying everything within arm’s length of them. They’ve been pulling this destructive suicidal junk for almost a century, now.
Let us not forget that Barky was always a bigger hit in Europe than he ever was, here. Heck, the biggest political rally (possibly in history) was Barky’s illegal, un-Constitutional, un-American and offensive Berlin rally for Germans. Barky never should have been allowed to return to the US after that. The Eurotrash loved him … they should have been forced to keep the retard.
ThePrimordialOrderedPair on May 15, 2013 at 10:07 PM
Can I buy Spain yet on Ebay?
Capitalist Hog on May 15, 2013 at 10:11 PM
How long before they change the EU to eewwww?
socalcon on May 15, 2013 at 11:00 PM
Just as a technical reminder – European GDP estimates are not annualized, so if one wants to compare it to what the BEA puts out there, multiply by 4 to get a close-enough-for-government-work approximation. That makes the overall rate -0.8%, and Germany’s rate +0.4%, on an annualized basis.
As for the continued German support for the pEU, they must be thinking that Brussels is once again in Greater Germany.
Steve Eggleston on May 15, 2013 at 11:26 PM
S&H is going to kill you.
trigon on May 15, 2013 at 11:47 PM
Totally agreed!!
jimver on May 16, 2013 at 2:10 AM
If we had accurate data, instead of politically massaged propaganda, we would see Europe is not alone.
dogsoldier on May 16, 2013 at 8:02 AM
Not yet. But I wouldn’t say it’s impossible that we’ll see such a thing in our lifetimes.
We’re getting a front-row seat at the final stages of what happens to nations that subscribe to some moronic liberal sing-around-the-campfire version of international unity, with a generous dose of economic socialism used in the recipe.
MelonCollie on May 16, 2013 at 8:14 AM