Breaking: Q4 GDP drops to -0.1%

posted at 8:31 am on January 30, 2013 by Ed Morrissey

Yikes:

Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — decreased at an annual rate of 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012 (that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent.

The Bureau emphasized that the fourth-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 4 and the “Comparisons of Revisions to GDP” on page 5). The “second” estimate for the fourth quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on February 28, 2013.

The decrease in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected negative contributions from private inventory investment, federal government spending, and exports that were partly offset by positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.

Most economists predicted that the economy slowed in Q4, but I don’t know that anyone expected a negative number.  Business Insider notes that the expectations were around 1.1% for Q4, which would have been a big drop in itself from Q3′s 3.1%.  However, they point to the contraction in federal spending as the main culprit:

Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 15.0 percent in the fourth quarter, in contrast to an increase of 9.5 percent in the third. National defense decreased 22.2 percent, in contrast to an increase of 12.9 percent. Nondefense increased 1.4 percent, compared with an increase of 3.0 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 0.7 percent, in contrast to an increase of 0.3 percent.

Well, it’s true that government spending dropped in Q4, but it’s equally true that it spiked in Q3. That’s a decrease from the spike, which makes it a lot less dramatic when put in context. Exports took a beating, too, and that has nothing to do with government spending:

Real exports of goods and services decreased 5.7 percent in the fourth quarter, in contrast to an increase of 1.9 percent in the third. Real imports of goods and services decreased 3.2 percent, compared with a decrease of 0.6 percent.

However, there is a mild bright spot in inventories:

Real final sales of domestic product — GDP less change in private inventories — increased 1.1 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent in the third.

In other words, much of this drop seems to be a lack of inventory expansion.  Real final sales to end purchasers rose, even if it didn’t go up by much.  That would indicate that inventory expansion in Q3 and prior periods was based on overly-optimistic views of the economy.

The New York Times breaks out the U-word in its headline, although at this point they don’t have a story to go along with it.  The Associated Press says, “Surprise!”:

The U.S. economy posted a stunning drop of 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter, defying expectations for slow growth and possibly providing incentive for more Federal Reserve stimulus.

The economy shrank from October through December for the first time since the recession ended, hurt by the biggest cut in defense spending in 40 years, fewer exports and sluggish growth in company stockpiles.

The Commerce Department said Wednesday that the economy contracted at an annual rate of 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter. That’s a sharp slowdown from the 3.1 percent growth rate in the July-September quarter.

The surprise contraction could raise fears about the economy’s ability to handle tax increases that took effect in January and looming spending cuts.

What’s perhaps more stunning is the idea that the so-called recovery in its fourth year still cannot stand on its own legs without massive government stimulus.  After all, federal spending has remained at the $3.8 trillion level for four years, with its percentage of GDP around 25%, far above the 20% post-1960s norm.  Perhaps that’s part of the reason that the economy is still stagnating, rather than a reason to expect recovery.

Update: Here’s a couple of good questions:

A recession is defined by two success quarters of contraction, and we should remember that this is the advance estimate of Q4.  These numbers go through two more iterations; the final number will come out in March.  I’d guess based on the real final sales numbers that we aren’t going to see two negative quarters in a row, but it’s possible — and the tax hikes won’t help.  To answer the other question, another recession will be squarely blamed on the White House, especially after all the bragging they did about winning the fiscal-cliff standoff.

Update II: The year-end GDP number was 2.2%, assuming no further adjustments in Q4 GDP.  That’s better than 2011′s 1.8% GDP growth … but not by much.


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UH OH

Betcha anything they blame this on the GOP with the fiscal cliff deal.

gophergirl on January 30, 2013 at 8:35 AM

FORWARD!

Good Lt on January 30, 2013 at 8:36 AM

Forward!

hillsoftx on January 30, 2013 at 8:36 AM

Revision in 5….4….3

Gotta make dear leader look good
-bureau

What you won’t hear on the lsm today

cmsinaz on January 30, 2013 at 8:37 AM

But as MM says in her column today, we need to worry far more about 11 million (surely more) illegal immigrants.

BuckeyeSam on January 30, 2013 at 8:37 AM

FORWARD!

Good Lt on January 30, 2013 at 8:36 AM

Forward!

hillsoftx on January 30, 2013 at 8:36 AM

heh

hillsoftx on January 30, 2013 at 8:37 AM

Welcome to the Obama economy!

nyclakerfan on January 30, 2013 at 8:38 AM

Backwards !

Lucano on January 30, 2013 at 8:38 AM

Guaranteed gg

Don’t blame me in chief

cmsinaz on January 30, 2013 at 8:38 AM

unexpectadly?

mjbrooks3 on January 30, 2013 at 8:38 AM

Oomph!

Let’s see Obama and the MSM spin this one.

BigGator5 on January 30, 2013 at 8:39 AM

“Got to steal as much as I can while it lasts.” –every Democrat

Archivarix on January 30, 2013 at 8:39 AM

Par for the course

Obama: “Fore!”

HotAirian on January 30, 2013 at 8:40 AM

You’ve got to give the stimulus time to work Ed! Stop being so pessimistic. /

Rovin on January 30, 2013 at 8:40 AM

Cool! We get more free stuff then.

Limerick on January 30, 2013 at 8:41 AM

The eventual results of socialism…

mnjg on January 30, 2013 at 8:41 AM

C’mon…they will blame Sandy.

monalisa on January 30, 2013 at 8:42 AM

Get ready for the left to start screaming about austerity and GOP defifit hawks destroying the economy.

Mark1971 on January 30, 2013 at 8:42 AM

Well huh.

The entire economy is crumbling except for the firearms industry. A wise, competent leader would see that as an ominous sign and maybe change course, unfortunately our leader is a Dog Eating Retard who can’t pass his own reflection without having an orgasm.

So yeah, this stash of MRE’s might come in handy yet. I’m taking applications for the few remaining cots in the bunker, apply today!

Bishop on January 30, 2013 at 8:43 AM

MORE PICTURES OF RUBIO AND SCHUMER!!!!!!!!!!

screw the economy. we need anmesty.

renalin on January 30, 2013 at 8:43 AM

Get ready for the left to start screaming about austerity and GOP defifit deficit hawks destroying the economy.

Mark1971 on January 30, 2013 at 8:43 AM

Treasury announces it is all a mistake caused by the battery in the calculator that was inserted backwards.

Limerick on January 30, 2013 at 8:43 AM

Ummm… Congrats Barry!

Illinidiva on January 30, 2013 at 8:43 AM

Big gator more like crickets chirping

Won’t hear nada

cmsinaz on January 30, 2013 at 8:44 AM

The left wing website businessinsider is blaming the negative GDP on less government spending… So we need more debt and more deficit to keep the GDP positive… This is socialism for you…

mnjg on January 30, 2013 at 8:44 AM

Well, that Obamaphone lady said she isn’t going to vote for Obama again. She isn’t looking so dumb now, is she?

Fallon on January 30, 2013 at 8:45 AM

Damn you, George Bush!

steebo77 on January 30, 2013 at 8:47 AM

C’mon…they will blame Sandy.

monalisa on January 30, 2013 at 8:42 AM

I didn’t know Dubya had a sister named Sandy.

Fallon on January 30, 2013 at 8:47 AM

Perfect picture on drudge

cmsinaz on January 30, 2013 at 8:48 AM

Damn you, George Bush!

steebo77 on January 30, 2013 at 8:47 AM

Mere seconds…

Fallon on January 30, 2013 at 8:48 AM

The U.S. economy posted a stunning drop of 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter, defying expectations for slow growth and possibly providing incentive for more Federal Reserve stimulus.

Yeah that is the solution… Another trillion dollars in debt for another stimulus package that would be as super effective as the first one… May be this time we need to make it a 10 trillion dollars stimulus… Print, print, print money…. Ben, buy more printers… (super extreme sarcasm)…

mnjg on January 30, 2013 at 8:49 AM

Breaking: Q4 GDP drops to -0.1%

We need a second holiday season so we can have another awesome black Friday. That will fix the economy.

Four more years of this everyone. Four. More. Years.

Buckle up.

Gatsu on January 30, 2013 at 8:49 AM

Must. Extend. Unemployment. Benefits.

steebo77 on January 30, 2013 at 8:49 AM

Correct me if I’m wrong, but if Q1 2013 is the same or worse, we’re officially in a recession, right? And given that nearly everyone’s taxes just went up, that’s a distinct possibility.

Doughboy on January 30, 2013 at 8:50 AM

Nuh-uh! I heard ABC News interview Obama’s former economic adviser, Austan Goolsbee, yesterday and he said the economy was roaring back.

Resist We Much on January 30, 2013 at 8:50 AM

In other words, much of this drop seems to be a lack of inventory expansion.

But it was still growing! And we’re still spending $1 trillion more than we have. And the economy is still contracting!

MNHawk on January 30, 2013 at 8:51 AM

“Got to steal as much as I can while it lasts.” –every Democrat

Archivarix on January 30, 2013 at 8:39 AM

Starting with Nancy Pelosi’s rise to power in ’07, nothing could be more truthful than your statement Arch. From the Pelosi-lead omnibus bill to the 900 billion porkulus/union payoffs, the Democrats have been raiding the treasury like there’s no tomorrow.

Rovin on January 30, 2013 at 8:52 AM

I didn’t know Dubya had a sister named Sandy.

Fallon on January 30, 2013 at 8:47 AM

Haha. I think Sandy is Dubya’s dog.

monalisa on January 30, 2013 at 8:52 AM

And given that nearly everyone’s taxes just went up, that’s a distinct possibility.

Doughboy on January 30, 2013 at 8:50 AM

And peoples’ STILL had 2% more of their income to spend.

Good catch.

MNHawk on January 30, 2013 at 8:52 AM

Perfect picture on drudge

cmsinaz on January 30, 2013 at 8:48 AM

It is very weak if he does not say right in the caption below the picture that the GDP shrinked to -0.1%… Drudge front page and headlines is what most people look at when they go to the Druge report, not many click on the links to read the story behind the headlines…

mnjg on January 30, 2013 at 8:52 AM

David Burge ‏@iowahawkblog

Why does President Obama only create jobs in states that didn’t vote for him?

#HeWorksInMysteriousWays

lol

Resist We Much on January 30, 2013 at 8:54 AM

Nuh-uh! I heard ABC News interview Obama’s former economic adviser, Austan Goolsbee, yesterday and he said the economy was roaring back.

Resist We Much on January 30, 2013 at 8:50 AM

They don’t call him the “funniest man in Washington” for nothing.

steebo77 on January 30, 2013 at 8:55 AM

And peoples’ STILL had 2% more of their income to spend.

Good catch.

MNHawk on January 30, 2013 at 8:52 AM

Luckily I wasn’t hit by that tax hike since I technically don’t pay into SS(I work for a school district and pay into the Texas TRS). Of course the flipside is I didn’t get a 2% payroll tax cut over the last 3 years. Pick your poison, I guess.

Doughboy on January 30, 2013 at 8:56 AM

Is this adjusted for the Black-Friday-to-Holiday period? It it isn’t its even worse that the economy declined in that period where stores usually rely on to make it into the black.

Axeman on January 30, 2013 at 8:56 AM

Correct me if I’m wrong, but if Q1 2013 is the same or worse, we’re officially in a recession, right? And given that nearly everyone’s taxes just went up, that’s a distinct possibility.

Doughboy on January 30, 2013 at 8:50 AM

Yes that is correct… However the socialists will probably change the definition of a recession… If the President is a democrat it will take 17 consectuives quarters of negative GDP to call it a recession… If the President is a Republican any GDP growth in any quarter that is less than 5% is called a very deep recession…

mnjg on January 30, 2013 at 8:56 AM

Correct me if I’m wrong, but if Q1 2013 is the same or worse, we’re officially in a recession, right? And given that nearly everyone’s taxes just went up, that’s a distinct possibility.

Doughboy on January 30, 2013 at 8:50 AM

Yes, two consecutive quarters of negative growth (jumbo shrimp)…

Resist We Much on January 30, 2013 at 8:56 AM

This is not good news. It portrays an underlying upheaval thats bound to explode sooner or later. I get the feeling that pain is on the way.

tommy71 on January 30, 2013 at 8:57 AM

who cares

IR-MN on January 30, 2013 at 8:57 AM

And yet, on ABC world news last night, they were just crowing about the increase in housing prices, and how we are back to boom times.

Cavalry on January 30, 2013 at 8:58 AM

Then we need to tax the rich.

docflash on January 30, 2013 at 8:58 AM

@JimPethokoukis

Not too many negative quarters since 1980. But when we have, been followed by another within 2 quarter 86% of the time

https://twitter.com/JimPethokoukis/status/296616750185865216

Mark1971 on January 30, 2013 at 8:58 AM

Is anyone really surprised?

Ukiah on January 30, 2013 at 8:59 AM

who cares

IR-MN on January 30, 2013 at 8:57 AM

I think you mean “what difference does it make?”

steebo77 on January 30, 2013 at 8:59 AM

Mnjg drudge took the picture down :(

cmsinaz on January 30, 2013 at 8:59 AM

The left wing website businessinsider is blaming the negative GDP on less government spending… So we need more debt and more deficit to keep the GDP positive… This is socialism for you…

mnjg on January 30, 2013 at 8:44 AM

It’s the downward spiral of Progressivism….

For another example, please see: The EU.

visions on January 30, 2013 at 9:00 AM

Yeah, but we re-elected Obama so at least we’re not racists. Broke, sure. But not racists.

CJ on January 30, 2013 at 9:01 AM

Guns Control, legalizing illegal immigrants, carbon tax, and of course 10 trillion dollars more in government debt shall solve this problem instantly… Yeah and more abortion clinics will help immensely… What are we waiting for?… Obama should issue executive orders to implement all this now…

mnjg on January 30, 2013 at 9:02 AM

The “two successive quarters of negative growth in real GDP” is only a back-of-the-envelope definition. What is or is not a recession is ultimately decided by the National Bureau of Economic Research and usually announced a quarter or two after a recession has already begun.

steebo77 on January 30, 2013 at 9:02 AM

And yet, on ABC world news last night, they were just crowing about the increase in housing prices, and how we are back to boom times.

Cavalry on January 30, 2013 at 8:58 AM

That’s the BS narrative the left has been pushing lately. Colin Powell was spouting the same talking points last night on Ted Baxter’s show.

I’ve believed all along that part of the motivation by Obama and the Dems for pushing things like gun control and amnesty which weren’t even campaign issues is to distract everyone from the economy and deficit so that they no longer seem relevant. The problem with that strategery is that eventually reality catches up with you.

Doughboy on January 30, 2013 at 9:02 AM

Yes that is correct… However the socialists will probably change the definition of a recession… If the President is a democrat it will take 17 consectuives quarters of negative GDP to call it a recession… If the President is a Republican any GDP growth in any quarter that is less than 5% is called a very deep recession…

mnjg on January 30, 2013 at 8:56 AM

Remember when the Leftists were screeching about the 6% unemployment rate and “McDonald’s economy” under Bush?

Good times…

visions on January 30, 2013 at 9:04 AM

Mnjg drudge took the picture down :(

cmsinaz on January 30, 2013 at 8:59 AM

Much better and clearer headlines… However he should have kept the picture or put a picture of Obama smiling…

mnjg on January 30, 2013 at 9:04 AM

CNBC: “We’re looking to lose a point or two when the market opens”

Grid your loins—here comes the big “correction”

Rovin on January 30, 2013 at 9:05 AM

It’s the downward spiral of Progressivism….

For another example, please see: The EU.

visions on January 30, 2013 at 9:00 AM

Exactly…

mnjg on January 30, 2013 at 9:05 AM

And yet, on ABC world news last night, they were just crowing about the increase in housing prices, and how we are back to boom times.

Cavalry on January 30, 2013 at 8:58 AM

Houses in my neighborhood (Chicago suburb) are selling, but they’re selling for $100,000 or more less than they were previously purchased for (and that’s not including any improvements made to the house). People are taking big hits to get out of this state.

Fallon on January 30, 2013 at 9:07 AM

Keep your powder dry boys and girls and keep that Bible close by, it is going to be a bumpy ride

crosshugger on January 30, 2013 at 9:09 AM

the GDP is racist

Slade73 on January 30, 2013 at 9:10 AM

Rovin that 14000 didn’t last long

cmsinaz on January 30, 2013 at 9:11 AM

Well…we just need to do away with that old irrelevent Constitution and make Obama President for Life, so he can fix this.///

kingsjester on January 30, 2013 at 9:12 AM

Libtards are already saying that government spending isn’t high enough and Ben Bernanke needs to print more money. “More of the same! The Fed is doing everything right!”, say crazed lefties like Jim Cramer. Steve Leisman thinks any suggestion the 3rd quarter spike in government spending, followed by the 4th qtr decline, is no evidence of “election buying” and any suggestion otherwise is “conspiracizing”.

In other words, the American economy, close to destruction, yet needs a bit more of a lefty-push before collapsing. Forward!

MTF on January 30, 2013 at 9:12 AM

The economy unexpectedly acted stupidly.

GreatCommunicator on January 30, 2013 at 9:13 AM

What difference does it make. Shrugs.

esr1951 on January 30, 2013 at 9:14 AM

When I hear Collin Powel say I voted for Obama both times because his economic policies were more sound its obvious that he really meant ‘becuase he is also black’ Pathetic president and even more pathetic lemmings that voted for this hat.

Bensonofben on January 30, 2013 at 9:14 AM

I’m very surprised at this; it’s one of those times the U-word is justified. This is at variance with a number of other economic indicators. I suspect the blame will come down — possibly deserved — on the uncertainty created by the fiscal cliff. The last time we saw this kind of slowdown was when we had the previous debt ceiling crisis.

Hal_10000 on January 30, 2013 at 9:15 AM

Crickets on politico on this story as well as menendez natch

cmsinaz on January 30, 2013 at 9:15 AM

This is just Obama’s form of border security.

Mark1971 on January 30, 2013 at 9:15 AM

Well, duh. At some point the numbers artificially propped up for the election were bound to converge with reality. Who is up for some double dip?

ElectricPhase on January 30, 2013 at 9:17 AM

Word to the wise: keep your enemies close, and your investment advisers on speed-dial.

Rovin on January 30, 2013 at 9:17 AM

Well, when Obama took office it was -84,726%, so this is a big improvement. We’re definitely moving in the right direction. It took 8 years for Bush to get us into this mess; it will take 8 years for Obama to get us out of it. Obama’s looking out for the little guy, making sure that everyone gets their fair share and a fair shake. He is moving us forward. Thank you, President Obama.

steebo77 on January 30, 2013 at 9:18 AM

Meh. I’m fine with a dose of economic reality. Better now than when my kids have to deal with worse. Besides, I wouldn’t mind some good deals on stocks.

batter on January 30, 2013 at 9:18 AM

If I didn’t know better I would say that all the liberal pipe dreams the ‘rats have been foisting on us since 2008 have turned out to be utter effing garbage without a shred of merit, logic, or sense.

I’m just glad that our fascists are smarter than other fascists through history and that this time…THIS TIME…we will actually reach Utopia.

Bishop on January 30, 2013 at 9:21 AM

on a serious note:

just legalize it and tax it. Crises solved.

Slade73 on January 30, 2013 at 9:22 AM

Q3 was likely driven by the hope of getting 0bama out of office. Q4 happened when that didn’t happen.

Sekhmet on January 30, 2013 at 9:22 AM

But, but, but… The stock market has been up!

/lefty

trigon on January 30, 2013 at 9:24 AM

What’s perhaps more stunning is the idea that the so-called recovery in its fourth year still cannot stand on its own legs without massive government stimulus.

…what a nightmare liberal leadership is heaping upon this country with their failed Keynesian fantasy’s.

….But the “smartest people in the room” will tell you that raising taxes…..gutting defense….and ignoring the looming entitlement disaster is moving “forward”……

Get ready for a full court press from Pravda West about how those damn Tea Party Republicans are at fault for all of this……
…because you know…..the democrats having majority control of the Hill since 2006 don’t have any responsibility for our current situation.

Baxter Greene on January 30, 2013 at 9:25 AM

Q3 was likely driven by the hope of getting 0bama out of office. Q4 happened when that didn’t happen.

Sekhmet on January 30, 2013 at 9:22 AM

Exactly.

Something notable is how hard all the MSM is spinning this story. I can barely find an unbiased story except from the Times of India. Go figure.

dip it in cider on January 30, 2013 at 9:25 AM

QE3 coming….now that Obama has been re-elected we’re finally getting the true numbers…..meh..

Cpoy2 on January 30, 2013 at 9:26 AM

CNBC: “We’re looking to lose a point or two when the market opens”

Grid your loins—here comes the big “correction”

Rovin on January 30, 2013 at 9:05 AM

I’m not sure about that. I think that we’ve pretty much decoupled the stock market from the economy as a result of so much government interference and Fed quantitative easing.

The stock market has soared under Obama, but the economy has not, incomes for most Americans have fallen, and purchasing power has eroded decreasing demand.

Frankly, I just don’t pay attention to what the stock market is doing anymore. Obviously, if it dropped 1,000 points, that would be a big deal. But, hitting 14,000 after a quarter of negative growth should illustrate that it is no longer a true indicator of the economy.

Resist We Much on January 30, 2013 at 9:28 AM

It’s Bush’s fault. And you’re all racists.

The Rogue Tomato on January 30, 2013 at 9:29 AM

Q3 was likely driven by the hope of getting 0bama out of office. Q4 happened when that didn’t happen.

Sekhmet on January 30, 2013 at 9:22 AM

True. The “housing comeback” championed last evening was actually homeowners trying to sell their houses before year-end to avoid new Obamacare taxes. There is a new 4% Obamacare real estate tax on house sales above $400,000…which is about every house in NY and NJ.

monalisa on January 30, 2013 at 9:29 AM

The Obama mentality: Hey, let’s pump/print 3-5 trillion into the banks and the stock market and call it success. We’ll even throw in a Pelosi-pay-go, so everyone thinks we’ll pay it back.

Rovin on January 30, 2013 at 9:29 AM

B…b..b..b..b.bbut…IMMIGRATION REFORM!11!1!!!11 They all (yes you too Rubio) make me sick. If the GOP had any form a spine they`d be telling President Skeeter that NOTHING in the way of immigration even gets thought of until the fiscal issues are sorted (IOW, never). Onward and upward…FORWARD even to King Barry`s socialist utpoia.

NY Conservative on January 30, 2013 at 9:29 AM

When families get a chance to assess the impact of increased payroll tax deductions and increases in health insurances deductions, which in some cases are whacking take home pay back to 2011 levels, who’s to say they won’t do the rational thing and….
stop spending?

What then?

Why, then we will watch the Gregorys and the Schieffers and the Sawyers and the Clifts and the Jay Carneys…and the Sen. Landrieus explain why it’s wrong to use the R-word….

EastofEden on January 30, 2013 at 9:29 AM

Full speed ahead on those Fed printing presses….

PatriotRider on January 30, 2013 at 9:33 AM

Anyone catch Krugman on Monday talking about how he feels that the success of the past 4 years has vindicated his position on Obama’s policies. Hysterical that my 4 years of economics affords me a clearer vision of today’s economic landscape. Where’s my Nobel prize!

Bensonofben on January 30, 2013 at 9:34 AM

The eventual results of socialism…

mnjg on January 30, 2013 at 8:41 AM

Bing.

Jaibones on January 30, 2013 at 9:40 AM

I don’t think blaming Sandy is at all off base. You’re about $60 billion in direct damage plus millions of people missing work. That’s a good percent or two of our GDP for Q4.

Hal_10000 on January 30, 2013 at 9:40 AM

If only we could be more like China and the Dog Eater didn’t have Congress or the people getting in the way. A man with his economic acumen needs to have full rein to do what’s right for America.

Bishop on January 30, 2013 at 9:45 AM

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