Charts of the Day: The origin of the debt crisis
posted at 10:01 am on January 22, 2013 by Ed Morrissey
Republicans blame Barack Obama for the national-debt explosion, and for good reason; about a third of the existing national debt has accrued in his four years in office. Democrats blame George W. Bush for it, as deficits returned during his eight years after a momentary respite under Bill Clinton and a (briefly) fiscal-conservative Republican Congress. A few Democrats still blame Ronald Reagan, whose defense spending supposedly first delivered big deficit spending.
However, a new study from the St. Louis Fed argues that the problem began farther back — in 1970, when the federal government began to implement benefit programs that decoupled spending decisions from revenue (via Kevin Glass):
The U.S. national debt now exceeds 100 percent of gross domestic product. Given that a significant amount of this debt is the result of governmental efforts to mitigate the effects of the financial crisis, the recession, and the anemic recovery, it is tempting to think that the debt problem is a recent phenomenon. This article shows that the United States was on a collision course with a major debt problem for nearly four decades before the financial crisis. In particular, the debt problem began around 1970 when the government decided to significantly increase spending without a corresponding increase in revenue. The analysis suggests that the debt problem cannot be permanently resolved without creating a mechanism to prevent the government from running persistent deficits in the future.
The report has plenty of data and analysis, but this chart shows the problem most clearly. It tracks broad classes of spending over the last sixty-three years and demonstrates what exactly drives the debt and deficit crisis:
First, let’s point out that defense spending isn’t driving this crisis. We used to spend an amount equal to 10% of GDP on national defense (as we ramped up our involvement in Viet Nam) without tipping over into massive deficits. In terms of GDP, Reagan’s increased defense spending was below the pre-Viet Nam norm, and not much of a spike, either. Entitlement spending rose more, faster, and longer than defense spending did during the Reagan term. By the time Bill Clinton took office, both SSM and OPI (Other Payments to Individuals) outstripped defense spending, and the difference has only become greater in the last three or four years of this graph.
Couple that with this chart, which should be familiar in concept to anyone paying attention to the issues:
Are we having a revenue problem, in terms of percentage of GDP? Yes, although that’s more linked to the Great Recession and lack of growth in the nearly four years of recovery since it ended. However, the deficit problem is clearly more related to spending, not revenue, and that problem has grown worse even in an economic stall.
The problem is where to solve that problem. The report shows where attention must be directed:
We are already working downward, relative to overall spending, on discretionary spending. We need to change the trajectory of mandatory spending — which means that entitlement reform is a must if we are to fix our five-decade decoupling of spending from revenue.
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Great Grandpa Bishop once said to me: “Listen here you worthless little shiite, don’t never ever trust a politician with dog eyes. Now get out of here and go sweep the barn!”
Durbin is the hackiest of liberal hacks who wouldn’t last a week out here in the private sector. I wouldn’t trust the man to take out my trash correctly.
Bishop on March 18, 2013 at 10:06 AM
Dick “Double-talk” Durbin dishes dishonest deceitful dreck.
hillbillyjim on March 18, 2013 at 10:07 AM
Canned Dem responses:
Bush did it..
Higher taxes will cure anything…
If Repubs would just stop being the party of no…
My President has a plan…
melle1228 on March 18, 2013 at 10:07 AM
The only way Durbin could’ve told the truth was to follow that up with “I’m resigning immediately”.
Bitter Clinger on March 18, 2013 at 10:08 AM
Time to change the terminology from deficit reduction to deficit elimination.
Greek Fire on March 18, 2013 at 10:09 AM
Turdbin should just be flushed like all turds.
bgibbs1000 on March 18, 2013 at 10:09 AM
Aahh, Democrats; ya gotta luv ‘em!/
FOWG1 on March 18, 2013 at 10:11 AM
and then they wonder why Congress has approval ratings in the outhouse!
Durbin, Schumer, Pelosi, Hoyer, etal….need to go along with the old guard Rs including Boehner who NOW TRUSTS OBAMA! ESH
CoffeeLover on March 18, 2013 at 10:13 AM
Dickless Durbin isn’t especially known for the “truth”.
GarandFan on March 18, 2013 at 10:13 AM
melle1228 on March 18, 2013 at 10:07 AM
You forgot the big one, “We need a balanced approach.” Every time I hear that I feel like throwing up. If they’re going to keep saying it, at least they could define it.
bflat879 on March 18, 2013 at 10:15 AM
Canned Dem responses:
Bush did it..
Higher taxes will cure anything…
If Repubs would just stop being the party of no…
My President has a plan…
Your Government is here to help you………
And,…..If you don’t like my President’s plan, you’re a racist.
melle1228 on March 18, 2013 at 10:07 AM
Rovin on March 18, 2013 at 10:15 AM
And yet, the liberal fools that infest the once great state of Illinois (my former home) will send this jerk back to the Senate with 67% of the vote in 2014.
Mind-boggling.
Common Sense Floridian on March 18, 2013 at 10:17 AM
bflat879 on March 18, 2013 at 10:15 AM
Rovin on March 18, 2013 at 10:15 AM
Yeppers feel free to add to the list. They have gotten so predictable, and so detestable. They say the same things and do absolutely nothing. And then when people have buyers remorse for voting for them like Bill Maher, I want to slap them. How can you not know these people were incompetent, are your frickin out of touch or just stupid?
melle1228 on March 18, 2013 at 10:18 AM
After watching Chris Wallace give Durbin a pass we got to see Matt Kibbe make fun of that stalwart La Tourrette (RINO-OHIO) guy defend unssutainable defecit spending on the GOP side. Kibbe answers at least a couple of La Tourrette’s rejoinders with the simple “we don’t look at the color of people’s skin” in response.
The GOP needs a house cleaning. The old spend along to get along crowd is not in favor any longer.
DanMan on March 18, 2013 at 10:19 AM
LOL– Grew up in Illinois. Moved away due to my husband’s military career. My hubby recently retired in Tennessee. We had a chance to move back to where our family was in Illinois and we both wanted no part of that. Illinois is run by Chicago and California lite with the pensions driving its economic solvency.
melle1228 on March 18, 2013 at 10:21 AM
“But they were, all of them, deceived, for another deal was made. In the land of Washington, in the fires of the White House, the Dark Lord Obama forged in secret a master plan, to control all others. And into this plan he poured his cruelty, his malice and his will to dominate all life. “One plan to rule them all.” One by one, the Free Lands of America fell to the power of the Ring. But there were some who resisted. A Last Alliance of Men and Bloggers marched against the armies of Washington and on the slopes of Capitol Hill, they fought for the freedom of America. Victory was near. But the power of the plan could not be undone.”
The problem with Durbin and the other Nazgul is they believe in what they are saying.
May as well tell a meth addict the dangers of meth. They just don’t care.
BobMbx on March 18, 2013 at 10:21 AM
I’m so very frustrated these days. Everybody knows what the problem is. Even worthless terrorist-loving military-hating bastards like Durbin will admit what the solution has to be when outside the glare of media lights.
And yet, instead of working on the obvious course of action, we have people like Durbin lying for Satan-in-a-hoodie and his radical administration/party.
Happy Nomad on March 18, 2013 at 10:22 AM
Well, we don’t have a plan, but we don’t like yours.
BobMbx on March 18, 2013 at 10:23 AM
Dems never have to answer to hypocrisy, even when asked directly.
Cindy Munford on March 18, 2013 at 10:24 AM
A”bit of a rhetorical shell game”? Look, I understand we are all trying to be polite but at some point can’t we just describe meaningless blather for what it is? Lets not degrade political discourse completely! If a politician is so morally relativistic that any insult, theft, hypocrisy or general scumbaggery can somehow be justified as “good”, that doesn’t mean we have to take that effort as a serious discussion.
MTF on March 18, 2013 at 10:31 AM
this is another “elected” tool that should be un-elected!
but in insane illinois aka. cook county, would that ever happen, nah.
losarkos on March 18, 2013 at 10:31 AM
Duck Durbin.
mchristian on March 18, 2013 at 10:31 AM
I sooo wish I could run against him in 2014; now if I could just find a birth certificate somewhere…
Nutstuyu on March 18, 2013 at 10:33 AM
Nice. Drudge.
Nutstuyu on March 18, 2013 at 10:34 AM
…and look at the fiscal strength of his state!…there’s your good news …Dickhead!
KOOLAID2 on March 18, 2013 at 10:42 AM
That’s true. I used to live in the Chicago suburbs; now I live in the Detroit suburbs. Detroit is a pit, but, unlike Chicago, it doesn’t have enough power to control the state.
bw222 on March 18, 2013 at 10:44 AM
We definitely need “Jane you ignorant slut” moments more often in political discourse. The failure of the media, particularly on the Sunday chat factories, is that they don’t call these liars out when they dodge the obvious questions, flat-out misreprent the truth, or otherwise apply spin to a particular issue. Is running up $16T in debt unpatriotic- it is a yes or no question.
Happy Nomad on March 18, 2013 at 10:47 AM
They literally promised that in 2006 in order to win control of both houses of Congress in the Nov 2006 elections.
2006:
2007:
Democrat majorities are now responsible for the six biggest deficits in the history of the USA, with no end in sight.
Democrat majorities more than doubled the Debt Held By The Public in just four years (increasing it from $5.0 Trillion at FY-end 2007 to over $10.1 Trillion at FY-end 2011).
Democrats promised “fiscal discipline” and “no more deficit spending”.
They LIED.
ITguy on March 18, 2013 at 10:49 AM
We need to clarify the terms: deficit and debt. Too many people don’t understand and therefore, tune out the problem.
Deficit – current year’s shortfall in revenue versus expenses; in other words, you spend more than you take in for the current year
Debt – accumulated deficits over time.
Thus, every deficit simply increases the debt.
MN J on March 18, 2013 at 10:50 AM
You’re kidding, right? I lived in West Michigan and, frankly, the whole region is seen as nothing but an ATM to prop up Detroit, Flint, etc. The state is essentially run by the MEA, AFSCME and UAW (or was until right-to-work came about). Detroit itself may be a third world city but it definitely is the center of where decisions are made for the entire state.
Happy Nomad on March 18, 2013 at 10:51 AM
And, while on the subject, let’s stop calling reductions in the rate of spending a “cut.”
Happy Nomad on March 18, 2013 at 10:52 AM
At the risk of insulting Baghdad Bob…
Durbin could easily be mistaken for a twin of his seperated at birth except this would be the one that had the cord wrapped his neck.
acyl72 on March 18, 2013 at 10:53 AM
…I’m going to start doing “THE bluegill“!…copy and paste the same thing…to other threads!
.
.
…cracked record…cracked head!
KOOLAID2 on March 18, 2013 at 10:57 AM
“$9 trillion was diiiffffeeerrreeennntt!”
- Senator Dick Durbin
Resist We Much on March 18, 2013 at 11:00 AM
Balance is like pornography they can’t define it but they’ll know it when they see it. It probably will involve the massive transfer of wealth from the productive to the parasite class.
Happy Nomad on March 18, 2013 at 11:05 AM
“Chris here’s the good news” As we continue to rape future generations and destroy there opportunity, the politicians and bankers continue to get rich from the stupidity of the Amerikan people. We will keep the sheeple distracted with perverts and same sex marriage while ripping them off. Isn’t this a great country? Oh and by the way Chris, if I gave a damn about the Amerikan people I would start in Chicago by helping to restore the family.. But I could not care less.
david kumbera on March 18, 2013 at 11:10 AM
That’s easy to explain (everyone knows or is told constantly that):
Republican = evil
Democrat = good
That’s all you need to know, and unfortunately apparently all that a majority of Americans now know …
ShainS on March 18, 2013 at 11:10 AM
We have been pleading with these idiots for years to stop spending money we don’t have. They keep on doing it and then claim we don’t have a spending or debt problem. Either they don’t know the difference between deficit and debt or they think we don’t know. Probably both.
Kissmygrits on March 18, 2013 at 11:23 AM
Rub it in why dontcha. Detroit’s better? Ouch.
Some of us are stuck here for a while. The sad thing is, as bad as the Democrats are, the Republicans here aren’t much better. Do you want to elect a Democrat who is going to hire and protect unions and family members or a Republican who is going to hire and protect family members and unions? The entire state is run by people who are getting “theirs,” feeding at the trough, one hand washing the other, scratching backs, the end justifying the means and just about every other disfunctional cliche or saying out there. They don’t care who they are taking money from or whether they will eventually bleed the state dry, they just want to line their own pockets. The state is a giant pyramid scheme.
Fallon on March 18, 2013 at 11:26 AM
Was Wallace smart enough to counter with follow-up questions and points that you bring up, Ed? Without such pointed response, slick politicians like Durbin and his ilk try to buffalo voters.
onlineanalyst on March 18, 2013 at 11:31 AM
+1…
Khun Joe on March 18, 2013 at 11:40 AM
There’s a reason we (few conservative) Illinoisans refer to Durbin as Eddie Haskell.
Colony14 on March 18, 2013 at 11:46 AM
If Durbin’s lips are moving——–he’s lieing.
Herb on March 18, 2013 at 11:49 AM
Don’t be a Dick… Durban.
psrch on March 18, 2013 at 11:54 AM
You left out time travel.
rogerb on March 18, 2013 at 12:03 PM
Question for Sen Durbin:
If the Fed prints $85B per month to pay for about 40% of our spending and that’s not a problem, why can’t they print $220B per month and then no one will have to pay taxes?
I’m just afraid that it might give him an idea…
NOMOBO on March 18, 2013 at 12:05 PM
Durbins’ prevaricatin’ prevarication of falsely falsifyin’ is a mendacious mendaciousness…
He is fraudulent dishonest deceptive deceitful insincere duplicitous perfidious fallacious and as untruthful as many politicians are by issuing/speaking mendacious claims and counter-claims.
In other words a lying liar…
Now that I got that off my chest, I feel better! :-)
Scrumpy on March 18, 2013 at 12:10 PM
This Miserable excuse for a Bag of Contemtpt-Filled Protoplasm that Passes for a Human INITIATED THE MURDER of THOUSANDS of INNOCENT Iraqis and Americans with his “Our troops are like Soviets in their Gulag, Pol Pot in his Killing Fields….” speech!!!
LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR LIAR
HE IS A MURDERER!! – A MURDERER!! – A MURDERER!!!!!!! AND CONSQUENCES AND HARM SHOULD COME TO HIM AND HIS LOVED ONES – HE IS A MURDERED
I HATE HIM – HE HAS MURDERED OUR TROOPS – I HATE HIM – HE HAS MURDERED OUR TROOPS – I HATE HIM – HE HAS MURDERED OUR TROOPS – I HATE HIM – HE HAS MURDERED OUR TROOPS – I HATE HIM – HE HAS MURDERED OUR TROOPS – I HATE HIM – HE HAS MURDERED OUR TROOPS – I HATE HIM – HE HAS MURDERED OUR TROOPS – I HATE HIM – HE HAS MURDERED OUR TROOPS – I HATE HIM – HE HAS MURDERED OUR TROOPS – I HATE HIM – HE HAS MURDERED OUR TROOPS – I HATE HIM – HE HAS MURDERED OUR TROOPS – I HATE HIM – HE HAS MURDERED OUR TROOPS – I HATE HIM – HE HAS MURDERED OUR TROOPS – I HATE HIM – HE HAS MURDERED OUR TROOPS – I HATE HIM – HE HAS MURDERED OUR TROOPS – I HATE HIM – HE HAS MURDERED OUR TROOPS – I HATE HIM – HE HAS MURDERED OUR TROOPS – I HATE HIM – HE HAS MURDERED OUR TROOPS – I HATE HIM – HE HAS MURDERED OUR TROOPS – I HATE HIM – HE HAS MURDERED OUR TROOPS – I HATE HIM – HE HAS MURDERED OUR TROOPS – I HATE HIM – HE HAS MURDERED OUR TROOPS – I HATE HIM – HE HAS MURDERED OUR TROOPS – I HATE HIM – HE HAS MURDERED OUR TROOPS -
williamg on March 18, 2013 at 12:41 PM
I Meant to Say:
“HE IS A MURDERER!! – A MURDERER!! – A MURDERER!!!!!!! AND CONSQUENCES AND HARM SHOULD COME TO HIM AND HIS LOVED ONES – HE IS A MURDERER!!”
williamg on March 18, 2013 at 1:47 PM
“If I had a world of my own, everything would be nonsense. Nothing would be what it is because everything would be what it isn’t. And contrary-wise; what it is it wouldn’t be, and what it wouldn’t be, it would. You see?” – Lewis Carroll, “Alice in Wonderland” We’ve arrived!
GodogGo on March 18, 2013 at 2:13 PM
here’s the good news: the people whom we are stealing from haven’t been born yet and can’t get mad at us
burserker on March 18, 2013 at 3:42 PM
The DEMS keep handing gift-wrapped campaign ads to the RNC and yet the moss-covered politicians refuse to hit back.
This clip should be running every day in every blue-state market until the 51% finally get the message…or at least 2% of the 51%.
RNC…THIS IS WHAT YOU SHOULD BE DOING TO THE DEMS!
JetBlast on March 18, 2013 at 3:46 PM
My wife & I are not far behind you. If our small business weren’t here in NW Illinois, we’d be where you are right now.
Owen Glendower on March 18, 2013 at 3:49 PM
I’m disappointed that this poast hasn’t received more comments.
I wish more people cared about holding the Democrats accountable for what they promised in 2006 vs. what they have done 2007-present.
Here’s what they said in 2006:
And here’s an updated version to reflect the reality of the last six years:
ITguy on March 19, 2013 at 8:46 AM