2016: Hillary 44, Christie 42

posted at 4:58 pm on January 10, 2013 by Allahpundit

This poll won’t matter three years from now when we find ourselves caught up in an epic Stan McChyrstal vs. Mike Huckabee battle for the soul of America, but for now it’s a fun time-waster on a painfully slow news day.

Two overrated media darlings enter, one overrated media darling leaves:

57% of Democrats would like Clinton to be their candidate in 2016. Only Joe Biden at 16% also hits double digits. Beyond them it’s Andrew Cuomo and Elizabeth Warren at 4%, Martin O’Malley at 3%, Deval Patrick and Mark Warner at 2%, and Kirsten Gillibrand and Brian Schweitzer at 1%…

The most epic possible 2016 match up at this early point would be between Clinton and Chris Christie. She leads him just 44-42. But our poll indicates getting the Republican nomination could prove to be quite a challenge for Christie. Right now Rubio leads the GOP field with 21% to 16% for Ryan, 15% for Mike Huckabee, 14% for Christie and Bush, 5% for Rand Paul, 3% for Bobby Jindal, and 2% each for Susana Martinez and Rick Perry.

The independent streak that makes Christie such a strong potential general election candidate also hurts him with GOP primary voters. His +15 net favorability rating at 44/29 is the weakest of any of the Republicans within the party base except for Martinez, who’s relatively unknown, and Perry whose disastrous 2012 bid for the office has left him with mediocre numbers.

Christie polls at 32% among moderate Republicans as their top choice for the office in 2016…but at only 4% among voters describing themselves as ‘very conservative.’

Neither Jeb, Ryan, nor Rubio polls within 10 points of Clinton. Christie trails by just two. Why? Because it wasn’t just Republicans who noticed his ostentatious, camera-ready display of bipartisanship with The One a few days before the election. He’s actually more popular with Democrats now than he is with Republicans:


PPP polled the favorable ratings of 18 different prominent national pols. Not only was Christie’s +28 spread the most positive of any of them — even the famously popular Hillary Clinton managed just +15 — but only five managed a net positive rating overall. It’s not just centrist Democrats who are boosting him up either, and it’s not just whites:


The only other Republican polled who had net-positive favorables among black voters was Susana Martinez, and she was only +9. Head to head with Hillary, Christie pulls 19% of African-Americans. (Interestingly, despite a favorable rating among that same demographic of 20/55, Jeb Bush pulls 22%.) I take it this is all ephemeral, that he’s riding a wave of goodwill among Democrats right now due to his Sandy visibility and that it’ll all go away sooner rather than later, especially if Hillary decides not to run and the media switches into “stop Christie now” mode. But if he does run in 2016, stuff like this will be his biggest selling point in the primaries. The lesson of the last two elections is that most Republicans really, really prize alleged “electability,” even at the expense of conservative bona fides. You’d think they’d be ready to gamble on someone more ideological after McCain and Romney washed out, but I don’t know. Some may reason that the big problem with Maverick and Mitt is that they weren’t “electable” enough, and that in a country that seems to be turning bluer the obvious solution is to nominate a guy who won twice in a deep blue state and whom blue voters nationally already know and like. The problem for Christie is that Rubio’s an impressive enough retail politician in his own right that GOPers on the fence might opt for him on the theory that they’d only be sacrificing a little electability in return for a lot more reassurance on principle. Hard to see the big man getting through the primary, but the more he can sustain numbers like this, the more he and Moneybags Mike Bloomberg might decide that a third-party independent bid isn’t a hopeless cause after all.


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Christie/Hillary

Schadenfreude on January 10, 2013 at 5:00 PM

Forget it. Christie can drop dead.

E L Frederick (Sniper One) on January 10, 2013 at 5:00 PM

2016: Hillary 44, Christie 42

So we now know how the democrat primary will turn out.

oceansidecon on January 10, 2013 at 5:01 PM

Yes it is too early. Sheesh, give us a freakin break.

guido911 on January 10, 2013 at 5:02 PM

It’s never too early.

Yes. Yes it is.

but for now it’s a fun time-waster on a painfully slow news day.

There’s gotta be some red meat somewhere AP!

BacaDog on January 10, 2013 at 5:02 PM

Not no but hell no. No Chris Christie.

Big Orange on January 10, 2013 at 5:02 PM

Christie / Hillary… what’s the difference?

SAMinVA on January 10, 2013 at 5:03 PM

Ewwwwwwwwwww ….

I just had a Princess Leia (Hillary) / Jabba the Hut (Christie) image flash through my mind.

AAacccckkkkkkk !!!!!! Pfffffffttttttt !!!! :P

PolAgnostic on January 10, 2013 at 5:03 PM

Christie,, 320 lbs
Hillary ,, looks like 320 lbs

Christie sees himself in his mirror as 420 lbs wearing 34″ x 36″ Wanglers, yet he in fact is the bull about to be saddled up and rode hard by the commie Democrats.

APACHEWHOKNOWS on January 10, 2013 at 5:03 PM

Has this been unskewed yet? /s

can_con on January 10, 2013 at 5:04 PM

GOP is now officially the Whig Party.
Why even bother with this site any more.

Christee would be a Democrat in most of the states in America without changing a single position. Because he is in very blue state he can use the Republican Ticket to run in a General Primary just like Mitt did in Mass.

But Mitt lost the General and so would Christee for the same reason.

I mean Christee campaigned for Obama and helped push Obama over the top now this insane talk. Give me a break.

Steveangell on January 10, 2013 at 5:04 PM

“The election’s over!”

-gumbyandpokey

Chuck Schick on January 10, 2013 at 5:05 PM

PolAgnostic on January 10, 2013 at 5:03 PM

****SLAP****

Like I don’t already have insomnia.

CurtZHP on January 10, 2013 at 5:05 PM

Christie,, not so useful 320 lbs..

APACHEWHOKNOWS on January 10, 2013 at 5:05 PM

So it is disturbing to me that Hillary gets 44. When do you just give up.

earlgrey133 on January 10, 2013 at 5:05 PM

Yeah, and there was a poll back in 2009 showing Romney beating Obama and even had Palin within 5 points. Can we just dispense with the useless hypothetical matchups that’ll never happen anyway? CRISTie would get smoked by Hillary. She’ll get every Dem to vote for her and will dominate with women(ask yourself honestly if even 30% of single women would back the Jabba-looking CRISTie over her). And conservatives will be so PO’d at being stuck with him as their nominee that many will stay home. If the GOP is lucky, he’d get 45% of the popular vote. And yes, this is even under the very likely scenario that Obama’s 2nd term is an unmitigated disaster.

Doughboy on January 10, 2013 at 5:06 PM

I still cling, perhaps desperately, to the belief that Christie actually understands our dire national financial situation and would actually address it fairly honestly. Who knows? And, perhaps because I’m from NJ, I like is politically incorrect way of dealing with things, instead of the pussy-footing, we don’t want to offend style of other politicians. In the end, if he were elected, I’m sure he’d let me down too.

dgarone on January 10, 2013 at 5:07 PM

Christi a wolf in sheeps clothing….Palin 2016

oldmans on January 10, 2013 at 5:07 PM

Neither Jeb, Ryan, nor Rubio polls within 10 points of Clinton. Christie trails by just two. Why?
Perhaps because the pollsters have an agenda except jut prior to an election and during the election if the candidate is conservative. They were hugely wrong on Scott Walker. Guess what Rubio is more like Walker than any of the other RINOS you listed.

Steveangell on January 10, 2013 at 5:07 PM

Yawn.

Christie is like Huntsman. A joke.

Norwegian on January 10, 2013 at 5:08 PM

Goooood gosh! What in the world is wrong with those polled for this to put christie at 42%? Wanna bet christie does a paul for 2016 to see to it hill gets elected? I have to ask, how many American’s in the other 49 states really like christie and want HIM as the r running?
L

letget on January 10, 2013 at 5:08 PM

Neither Jeb, Ryan, nor Rubio polls within 10 points of Clinton. Christie trails by just two. Why?

Perhaps because the pollsters have an agenda except jut prior to an election and during the election if the candidate is conservative. They were hugely wrong on Scott Walker. Guess what Rubio is more like Walker than any of the other RINOS you listed.

Wow that came out wrong.

I detest auto refresh and erase post.

Steveangell on January 10, 2013 at 5:08 PM

I think it will be Biden /Killary 2016,
the ” fried brain duo” :O
as a bipartisan/consensus ticket for both Dems and Repubs.

burrata on January 10, 2013 at 5:09 PM

Wanna bet christie does a paul for 2016 to see to it hill gets elected? I have to ask, how many American’s in the other 49 states really like christie and want HIM as the r running?

Wanna bet Barry decides to ignore the two term limit and, to thunderous applause, declares himself a candidate for a third term?

hawkeye54 on January 10, 2013 at 5:10 PM

So it is disturbing to me that Hillary gets 44. When do you just give up.

earlgrey133 on January 10, 2013 at 5:05 PM

Why so surprised? Democrat voters will almost unanimously support her. Left-leaning indies will as well. Women will want to back her. Americans nostalgic for the good times of the 90′s(as if merely electing another Clinton will fix everything) will pull the lever for her and by extension Bubba. That easily gets her to 44% and probably way more than that.

My mind which is ruled by common sense tells me that there’s no way a majority of people in this country will tolerate 4 more years of Democrat rule after the disaster that is the Obama Presidency, but I’m so close to giving up on the American electorate(51% of it at least) that I’m starting to think she’ll easily win in 2016. The fawning media coverage alone could make her unbeatable.

Doughboy on January 10, 2013 at 5:10 PM

Yeah. Right.

Like 42 points of the electorate is going to vote for rockstar RINO Christie.

Get outta town.

SD Tom on January 10, 2013 at 5:11 PM

AP…..nobody cares about your whimsical fantasies! So, two fatass dems may collide in the future!

tomshup on January 10, 2013 at 5:12 PM

Yeah, Rush is right,

“Politics is Hollywood for the ugly.”

What he didn’t add is that politics is for the terminally stupid, ugly and corrupt.

If they had to work their way in the private sector, they would be on Food Stamps, perennially unemployed and on welfare.

Instead, in this fallen country, we reward failure to politicians who make rules to govern the electorate (for favors) vote to increase their salaries – because we let them.

This is a perverse, masochistic society.

None of these people deserve the right to increase their salaries without a performance review.

And none of them have the right to decide what our rights will be without proper review.

Cody1991 on January 10, 2013 at 5:12 PM

Unless the GOP closes the primaries (which they won’t) either Jeb or Christie will have the nomination sewn up before super Tuesday. Enjoy.

Kataklysmic on January 10, 2013 at 5:13 PM

Yeah but if you unskew this poll, Christie is up 20.

vegconservative on January 10, 2013 at 5:13 PM

You do know what is happening people..PPP is a Democratic leaning poll, so they’re trying to make sure that all Republican challengers are out of the race so Hillary wins. And they’re choosing the weakest Republican in the field to run against Hillary. There’s no way that Christie’s more electable than Rubio. In fact, with Christie, you’re probably sacrificing a lot of white blue collar voters. Christie is a gun grabb-y obnoxious Northeast blowhard. Union guy from Ohio might prefer Hillary Clinton because they liked Bill alot and the 1990s were a pretty good time.

Illinidiva on January 10, 2013 at 5:15 PM

Yeah but if you unskew this poll, Christie is up 20.

Is that in percentage points or pounds?

hawkeye54 on January 10, 2013 at 5:15 PM

That fat slob tongue washing obama on the beach will NEVER get my vote. NEVER.

Semper Fi

crash72 on January 10, 2013 at 5:16 PM

Ed’s take

Schadenfreude on January 10, 2013 at 5:16 PM

Jeb Bush got 14%??..Really??!!??..:)

Dire Straits on January 10, 2013 at 5:16 PM

if its between the Huckster and Christie give me the base playin’ goober any day

DanMan on January 10, 2013 at 5:16 PM

2016: Hillary 44, Christie 42

2016: Republican, democrat

2016: Sarah PALIN!

Pork-Chop on January 10, 2013 at 5:16 PM

Looks like, once again, we’re going to let the beltway establishment/media cabal pick another loser for us.

CurtZHP on January 10, 2013 at 5:17 PM

Again, my only hope is that he doesn’t get TOO castigated in the primaries and goes away quietly. (His ego may have to be appeased with a VP slot)

Christie running as an Indy would be a disaster and would hand the election over to whomever the Dem candidate is, never mind Hillabut.

cdog0613 on January 10, 2013 at 5:18 PM

It’s never too early.

Yeah..it is.

Blaise on January 10, 2013 at 5:18 PM

PolAgnostic on January 10, 2013 at 5:03 PM

That’s gotta hurt. Probably need some brain bleach for that.

Where’s predator? Is he selling any?

22044 on January 10, 2013 at 5:18 PM

Kataklysmic on January 10, 2013 at 5:13 PM

Remember..Things change..:)

Dire Straits on January 10, 2013 at 5:18 PM

Wanna bet Barry decides to ignore the two term limit and, to thunderous applause, declares himself a candidate for a third term?

hawkeye54 on January 10, 2013 at 5:10 PM

There was another Hussein who used to do that too ;-)

burrata on January 10, 2013 at 5:19 PM

DanMan on January 10, 2013 at 5:16 PM

rofl..:)

Dire Straits on January 10, 2013 at 5:20 PM

It’s WAY to early. Stop it! Stop it right now! :)

totherightofthem on January 10, 2013 at 5:20 PM

so much love for christie from the base… lets see the “true conservative” champions this time, if its the same idiot brigade you better start to love christie … but rand paul or even rubio seem good enough… phew!

nathor on January 10, 2013 at 5:20 PM

2016: Sarah PALIN!

Not as a GOP candidate. The GOP establishment hates her more than the dems do.

hawkeye54 on January 10, 2013 at 5:21 PM

I’ll vote for HILLARY! over Joisey Buddah.

He is the last straw after his antics.

harlekwin15 on January 10, 2013 at 5:21 PM

All of their performance reviews were terrible. Every one of them and there they all are populating the WH and halls of Congress. Sooooooo? What are we going to do about it?

BetseyRoss on January 10, 2013 at 5:21 PM

Wait, I just looked at those crosstabs. 7% of people polled either voted 3rd party or couldn’t remember who they voted for just 2 months ago? Yeah this is definitely a legit poll.

vegconservative on January 10, 2013 at 5:22 PM

Remember..Things change..:)

Dire Straits on January 10, 2013 at 5:18 PM

Sometimes even for the better. I admire your optimism ;)

Kataklysmic on January 10, 2013 at 5:22 PM

It’s never too early.

Yes, it is.

novaculus on January 10, 2013 at 5:22 PM

Kataklysmic on January 10, 2013 at 5:22 PM

We have to..:)

Dire Straits on January 10, 2013 at 5:22 PM

Two overrated media darlings enter, one overrated media darling leaves

Whew, good to see you back to your snarky normal AP. After that other day when you inexplicably decided to argue like a liberal against Constitutional orginalism on natural born citizen and 2nd amendment, I was worried about ya turning into a full time lefty.

sauldalinsky on January 10, 2013 at 5:23 PM

The republican party stuck on stupid….

oldmans on January 10, 2013 at 5:24 PM

Ed’s take

Schadenfreude on January 10, 2013 at 5:16 PM

Ed is full of it! He is not center-right as he claims, but center-left! His picks prove it!

tomshup on January 10, 2013 at 5:25 PM

Does everyone read the post??!!??..:)

Dire Straits on January 10, 2013 at 5:26 PM

Elizabeth Warren at 4%

LMFAO…these are the folks to whom you could easily sell a bridge.

Tim_CA on January 10, 2013 at 5:26 PM

so much love for christie from the base… lets see the “true conservative” champions this time, if its the same idiot brigade you better start to love christie … but rand paul or even rubio seem good enough… phew!

nathor on January 10, 2013 at 5:20 PM

I wouldn’t worry too much about what us unwashed hicks in the base think. Unless the primaries are closed we are pretty powerless in choosing the nominee. For evidence see 2012, 2008.

Kataklysmic on January 10, 2013 at 5:27 PM

Me?

Out of everyone?

I’m gonna go with Ted Cruz out of the entire GOP, and he’s an unknown.

blatantblue on January 10, 2013 at 5:27 PM

Perhaps because the pollsters have an agenda except jut prior to an election and during the election if the candidate is conservative. They were hugely wrong on Scott Walker. Guess what Rubio is more like Walker than any of the other RINOS you listed.

Christ, the reason they dont poll within 10 points is because they really are not in the news or talked about as much as Christie has been in the past month. You dont need your conspiracy theories.You’re probably one of the people who thought romney was really ahead

Flapjackmaka on January 10, 2013 at 5:27 PM

Joe Biden got 16%!!???!!!..Another head scratcher..:)

Dire Straits on January 10, 2013 at 5:27 PM

What’s the support for an Obama third term? Surely those pesky term limits can be dealt with by executive order.

JeremiahJohnson on January 10, 2013 at 5:27 PM

I’m gonna go with Ted Cruz out of the entire GOP, and he’s an unknown.

blatantblue on January 10, 2013 at 5:27 PM

Nothing wrong with that..:)

Dire Straits on January 10, 2013 at 5:28 PM

We don’t want that fat fu$%!

texasgoat on January 10, 2013 at 5:29 PM

Is it too early to get on this bandwagon?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Susana_Martinez

Purple Fury on January 10, 2013 at 5:29 PM

That’s some pretty slim pickings for the dems. I thought the Castro brothers would show up in there somewhere.

No Grayson?

can_con on January 10, 2013 at 5:30 PM

can_con on January 10, 2013 at 5:30 PM

rofl..Hugo Chavez??!!??..:)

Dire Straits on January 10, 2013 at 5:31 PM

Nothing wrong with that..:)

Dire Straits on January 10, 2013 at 5:28 PM

God Bless Texas.

blatantblue on January 10, 2013 at 5:32 PM

Stan McChyrstal vs. Mike Huckabee

I thought Hillary v. Christie was bad until I saw the alternative. I guess I’m destined to vote third party in 2016?

besser tot als rot on January 10, 2013 at 5:32 PM

I wouldn’t worry too much about what us unwashed hicks in the base think. Unless the primaries are closed we are pretty powerless in choosing the nominee. For evidence see 2012, 2008.

Kataklysmic on January 10, 2013 at 5:27 PM

the base can be bafling.. just remember how trump and cain were leading at some point. *facepalm!*
but you right, chances are that the mainstream right wing media will choose the candidate for you.

nathor on January 10, 2013 at 5:33 PM

No.

Yakko77 on January 10, 2013 at 5:33 PM

Oh, and f Christie.

Purple Fury on January 10, 2013 at 5:33 PM

by the way, i am betting on pocahontas as the dem nominee!

nathor on January 10, 2013 at 5:34 PM

You’d think they’d be ready to gamble on someone more ideological after McCain and Romney washed out, but I don’t know. Some may reason that the big problem with Maverick and Mitt is that they weren’t “electable” enough, and that in a country that seems to be turning bluer the obvious solution is to nominate a guy who won twice in a deep blue state and whom blue voters nationally already know and like

Someone remind me….what’s the definition of insanity?

Anyone else getting a strong sense of deja vu?

(retake the party….start at the top)

Tim_CA on January 10, 2013 at 5:34 PM

That’s some pretty slim pickings for the dems. I thought the Castro brothers would show up in there somewhere.

Well, one of the Castros is just this side of death, and both may well be by 2016, so there is that.

I’m surprised Mahmoud Ahmadinejad doesn’t poll in double digits.

hawkeye54 on January 10, 2013 at 5:34 PM

Out of this early poll..I see two proven folks who can raise big bucks..:)

Dire Straits on January 10, 2013 at 5:35 PM

Katherine Webb 2016

22044 on January 10, 2013 at 5:35 PM

It’s WAY to early. Stop it! Stop it right now! :)

totherightofthem on January 10, 2013 at 5:20 PM

To repeat. Hillary and Christie? Make it stop!!!!

Fallon on January 10, 2013 at 5:35 PM

blatantblue on January 10, 2013 at 5:32 PM

I hear you..:)

Dire Straits on January 10, 2013 at 5:35 PM

We don’t want that fat fu$%!

texasgoat on January 10, 2013 at 5:29 PM

resistance is futile! no one wanted either romney and you ended up with him!

nathor on January 10, 2013 at 5:36 PM

DOG.

1) This is a “dog’s choice”. (Brit. means two awful alternatives but you are not stuck like between a rock and a hard place, you just have two very awful options!)

2) Governor Christie is in the doghouse.

#) I better not mention the dog expression or term relating to the lady here.

So, the conservatives better not be doggo,

IlikedAUH2O on January 10, 2013 at 5:36 PM

22044 on January 10, 2013 at 5:35 PM

LoLz..Can Brent Musburger be her running mate??..:)

Dire Straits on January 10, 2013 at 5:36 PM

rofl..Hugo Chavez??!!??..:)

Dire Straits on January 10, 2013 at 5:31 PM

Or the Honduran dictator who got coup d’etated in 2009

22044 on January 10, 2013 at 5:36 PM

Joe Biden got 16%!!???!!!..Another head scratcher..:)

Not really, hanging on to Barry’s coattails just by being VP. AARP members must account for the majority of that 16%.

hawkeye54 on January 10, 2013 at 5:37 PM

Hillary and Christie? Make it stop!!!!

Fallon on January 10, 2013 at 5:35 PM

LMFAO…

This.

Tim_CA on January 10, 2013 at 5:37 PM

A little early. We’re gonna have to see how this fascism thingy works out first. This time, maybe this time, it will be the cool fascism, the awesome fascism, the fascism everyone loves.

Rational Thought on January 10, 2013 at 5:37 PM

I can already see the MSNBC chyron under this story:

Christie: The Biggest Loser?

can_con on January 10, 2013 at 5:37 PM

LoLz..Can Brent Musburger be her running mate??..:)

Dire Straits on January 10, 2013 at 5:36 PM

Hahahah!!! Well played!

22044 on January 10, 2013 at 5:38 PM

hawkeye54 on January 10, 2013 at 5:37 PM

That is scary..:)

Dire Straits on January 10, 2013 at 5:38 PM

Wanna bet Barry decides to ignore the two term limit and, to thunderous applause, declares himself a candidate for a third term?

hawkeye54 on January 10, 2013 at 5:10 PM

I was thinking the same until I looked into it. First they would need an amendment ratified by 3/4ths of the congress which doesn’t seem possible. But seeing how the Rs are nose diving into BOs backside of late … and 2014 could end up with huge gains for the Ds… anything is possible.

Also, even the SC can’t overturn presidential term limits. But who knows. Term limits is not a tax so Roberts would probably vote to overturn it if he could.

BoxHead1 on January 10, 2013 at 5:40 PM

Chris Creosote.

Sorry for the ad they added. Must be using it too much. I have 0 for Hillary. She might be in the bucket if you look closely.

Bmore on January 10, 2013 at 5:41 PM

Christie is a pompous, loud-mouthed bully. He’ll blow his chances long before we reach primary stage.

scalleywag on January 10, 2013 at 5:42 PM

I won’t sit out if they nominate this fat, self-promoting liberal nitwit. That would be irresponsible.

I’ll vote for Hillary.

Jaibones on January 10, 2013 at 5:44 PM

So the democrats are going to run two candidates?

Flange on January 10, 2013 at 5:44 PM

but you right, chances are that the mainstream right wing media will choose the candidate for you.

nathor on January 10, 2013 at 5:33 PM

I’m glad you realize that. Now there’s no longer a reason to hand wring about the base not liking Christie.

Kataklysmic on January 10, 2013 at 5:44 PM

Katherine Webb 2016

22044 on January 10, 2013 at 5:35 PM

Hear hear!

Chuck Schick on January 10, 2013 at 5:46 PM

If this is where the establishment goes, this will be the catalyst for the start of a new party. New party. Closed primaries. Candidates: Sarah Palin, Alan West, Rick Perry; I’m sure there are other worthy candidates. But even this “anybody but the communist” voter will not vote for Christie.

AZfederalist on January 10, 2013 at 5:47 PM

43% of GOP want Christie, Bush or Huckabee?

There.is.no.hope.

can_con on January 10, 2013 at 5:48 PM

Ah, hell. Who are we kidding? There won’t be an election in 2016. By that time, Oligula will have incited civil insurrection and declared martial law and the rest will . . . resemble history.

totherightofthem on January 10, 2013 at 5:50 PM

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