2016: Hillary 44, Christie 42

posted at 4:58 pm on January 10, 2013 by Allahpundit

This poll won’t matter three years from now when we find ourselves caught up in an epic Stan McChyrstal vs. Mike Huckabee battle for the soul of America, but for now it’s a fun time-waster on a painfully slow news day.

Two overrated media darlings enter, one overrated media darling leaves:

57% of Democrats would like Clinton to be their candidate in 2016. Only Joe Biden at 16% also hits double digits. Beyond them it’s Andrew Cuomo and Elizabeth Warren at 4%, Martin O’Malley at 3%, Deval Patrick and Mark Warner at 2%, and Kirsten Gillibrand and Brian Schweitzer at 1%…

The most epic possible 2016 match up at this early point would be between Clinton and Chris Christie. She leads him just 44-42. But our poll indicates getting the Republican nomination could prove to be quite a challenge for Christie. Right now Rubio leads the GOP field with 21% to 16% for Ryan, 15% for Mike Huckabee, 14% for Christie and Bush, 5% for Rand Paul, 3% for Bobby Jindal, and 2% each for Susana Martinez and Rick Perry.

The independent streak that makes Christie such a strong potential general election candidate also hurts him with GOP primary voters. His +15 net favorability rating at 44/29 is the weakest of any of the Republicans within the party base except for Martinez, who’s relatively unknown, and Perry whose disastrous 2012 bid for the office has left him with mediocre numbers.

Christie polls at 32% among moderate Republicans as their top choice for the office in 2016…but at only 4% among voters describing themselves as ‘very conservative.’

Neither Jeb, Ryan, nor Rubio polls within 10 points of Clinton. Christie trails by just two. Why? Because it wasn’t just Republicans who noticed his ostentatious, camera-ready display of bipartisanship with The One a few days before the election. He’s actually more popular with Democrats now than he is with Republicans:


PPP polled the favorable ratings of 18 different prominent national pols. Not only was Christie’s +28 spread the most positive of any of them — even the famously popular Hillary Clinton managed just +15 — but only five managed a net positive rating overall. It’s not just centrist Democrats who are boosting him up either, and it’s not just whites:


The only other Republican polled who had net-positive favorables among black voters was Susana Martinez, and she was only +9. Head to head with Hillary, Christie pulls 19% of African-Americans. (Interestingly, despite a favorable rating among that same demographic of 20/55, Jeb Bush pulls 22%.) I take it this is all ephemeral, that he’s riding a wave of goodwill among Democrats right now due to his Sandy visibility and that it’ll all go away sooner rather than later, especially if Hillary decides not to run and the media switches into “stop Christie now” mode. But if he does run in 2016, stuff like this will be his biggest selling point in the primaries. The lesson of the last two elections is that most Republicans really, really prize alleged “electability,” even at the expense of conservative bona fides. You’d think they’d be ready to gamble on someone more ideological after McCain and Romney washed out, but I don’t know. Some may reason that the big problem with Maverick and Mitt is that they weren’t “electable” enough, and that in a country that seems to be turning bluer the obvious solution is to nominate a guy who won twice in a deep blue state and whom blue voters nationally already know and like. The problem for Christie is that Rubio’s an impressive enough retail politician in his own right that GOPers on the fence might opt for him on the theory that they’d only be sacrificing a little electability in return for a lot more reassurance on principle. Hard to see the big man getting through the primary, but the more he can sustain numbers like this, the more he and Moneybags Mike Bloomberg might decide that a third-party independent bid isn’t a hopeless cause after all.


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Comment pages: 1 2

Ego Party 2016: Christie/Bloomberg

LOL!

I will say one thing the GOP should learn from Christie is that audacity and doing political stunts do work in America. For whatever reason we have too many political leaders who are afraid of controversy. To bad Christie has gone power mad….

William Eaton on January 10, 2013 at 5:50 PM

Bush, Hillary or Christie? decisions decisions… so many good choices, I just can’t decide.

BoxHead1 on January 10, 2013 at 5:51 PM

It’s never too early.

*Sigh*

KS Rex on January 10, 2013 at 5:51 PM

So the democrats are going to run two candidates?

With Barry still in office, by 2016 they may not need to run ANY candidates. Barry might decide further presidential elections are an unnecessary burden, naturally with CONgressional and SC approval.

hawkeye54 on January 10, 2013 at 5:52 PM

With Barry still in office, by 2016 they may not need to run ANY candidates. Barry might decide further presidential elections are an unnecessary burden, naturally with CONgressional and SC approval.

hawkeye54 on January 10, 2013 at 5:52 PM

The only spending he’s willing to cut. . ..

totherightofthem on January 10, 2013 at 5:53 PM

The lesson of the last two elections is that most Republicans really, really prize alleged “electability,” even at the expense of conservative bona fides. You’d think they’d be ready to gamble on someone more ideological after McCain and Romney washed out, but I don’t know.

Actually, “most Republicans”, whoever they are, will always be ready to gamble on someone more ideological as long as he or she does not resemble one of the drooling, pathological second and third raters who threw their hat into the ring the last couple of rounds.

Mr. Arkadin on January 10, 2013 at 5:56 PM

Mssing from that list:

Santorum and Newt

Guys….take a hint.

can_con on January 10, 2013 at 5:59 PM

With Barry still in office, by 2016 they may not need to run ANY candidates. Barry might decide further presidential elections are an unnecessary burden, naturally with CONgressional and SC approval.

hawkeye54 on January 10, 2013 at 5:52 PM

A new amendment to overturn the 22nd Amendment (two-terms) would have to be passed by the legislatures of 3/4 of the states, or 38 states.

Given the GOP advantage in states, this is the saving grace. Currently, you could not get 38 state legislatures to OK giving 0bama a third term.

Nothing is said, however, about someone named Barry Soetoro running for president in ’16. It’s not the same person, y’know.

Now this is not to say that 0bama wouldn’t just try to ignore the 22nd Amendment. He’s been known to pick and choose his laws. But I don’t think he get there, due to the ensuing national eruption, unless he barricaded himself in the White House and never exposed himself to the public.
—————–

The party composition of the legislatures (and party summary of the individual chambers), as of 2013, was:
27 Republican-controlled Legislatures
17 Democratic-controlled Legislatures
5 Split Legislatures
1 Officially non-partisan (Nebraska)
50 Total

——–

The table below shows total state government control, which means the governor and the chamber majorities are all of the same party.
24 Republican-controlled governments
12 Democratic-controlled governments
3 Democratic Governor/Republican-controlled Legislature
4 Republican Governor/Democratic-controlled Legislature
1 Independent Governor/Democratic-controlled Legislature
1 Republican Governor/Split Legislature
4 Democratic Governor/Split Legislature
1 Republican Governor/Non-partisan Legislature (Nebraska)
50 Total
—————

Thank God!

cane_loader on January 10, 2013 at 6:01 PM

If it’s Hilliary verses Crist Christie, I’m voting for Hillary. Only if there is a huge 3rd party effort will I break my word.

FloatingRock on January 10, 2013 at 6:08 PM

Wait, I just looked at those crosstabs. 7% of people polled either voted 3rd party or couldn’t remember who they voted for just 2 months ago? Yeah this is definitely a legit poll.

vegconservative on January 10, 2013 at 5:22 PM

I’m guessing that most of those 7% were too embarrassed to say which candidate they voted for.

J.S.K. on January 10, 2013 at 6:08 PM

…Well, I won’t be “breaking my word”, but you know what I mean.

FloatingRock on January 10, 2013 at 6:08 PM

2016: Hillary 44, Christie 42

Oh not again. Either way conservatives lose.

voiceofreason on January 10, 2013 at 6:12 PM

PREDICTION: The gop will find a way to split the vote (Fred Thompson 2008, etc) in 2016 and we’ll wind up with another Democrat /Progressive hiding as the gop nominee.

I know, I know why would I go out on that limb?

PappyD61 on January 10, 2013 at 6:14 PM

This is just stupid.

FlaMurph on January 10, 2013 at 6:15 PM

Well, Christie wouldn’t be the cluster-you-know-what disaster that El Presidente Obama has been, but I’d still prefer…you know, a conservative.

I think Christie could win the presidential race, but I doubt he could win in the primary.

Othniel on January 10, 2013 at 6:18 PM

Yeah but if you unskew this poll, Christie is up 20.

Is that in percentage points or pounds?

hawkeye54 on January 10, 2013 at 5:15 PM

LMAO.

Tim_CA on January 10, 2013 at 6:18 PM

Christie is just like Schwarzenegger. Wants the spotlight and to be loved by the in crowd. Christie will stab us in the back, no doubt about it. I’ll be sitting out 2016 if he’s the nominee.

Mark1971 on January 10, 2013 at 6:20 PM

Christie is just like Schwarzenegger. Wants the spotlight and to be loved by the in crowd. Christie will stab us in the back, no doubt about it. I’ll be sitting out 2016 if he’s the nominee.

Mark1971 on January 10, 2013 at 6:20 PM

He totally reminds me of Schwarzenegger; I have thought this for awhile. Apparently I’m not alone in my thinking.

cane_loader on January 10, 2013 at 6:28 PM

Mr. Arkadin Agreed. Republican voters will go with a more conservative candidate as long as that candidate is perceived electable. Gingrich and Santorum weren’t electable in 2012. There is no reason to believe that Rubio or Ryan isn’t electable in 2016. The only chance that Christie might have is if the Rs have a bad 2014 election and get into panic mode. He needs Dubya 2000 level support to win the nod in 2016.

Illinidiva on January 10, 2013 at 6:32 PM

A brain damaged female vs. a morbidly obese hard-to-tell.

Besides that, what’s the difference?

TeaPartyNation on January 10, 2013 at 6:32 PM

2016: Hillary 44, Christie 42
…These are their polling numbers amongst just d-cRAT socialist extremists, right?

TeaPartyNation on January 10, 2013 at 6:33 PM

Sure…shove Christie down our throats but he won’t win the south.

Nope!

workingclass artist on January 10, 2013 at 6:55 PM

Hmm, liberal statist democrat versus liberal statist republican, loks like the 2012 election, the 2008 election the 2004 election, the 2000 election…
ground hog day in November every 4 years

paulsur on January 10, 2013 at 6:57 PM

Illinidiva on January 10, 2013 at 6:32 PM

Electability will be determined by who can stay on point. Any discussion of social issues without financial implications not allowed. Any discussion of social issues without facts ist verbotten. No emotion, just cold hard realities.

When the dem candidate pulls out Julia, show the wealth gap of marrieds vs singles by age. When they bring out free abortions, talk in terms of 50 million fewer citizens to pay taxes. Minority suppression? Whites are the minority in every dem controlled urban area. Gay marriage? Eliminate defined benefit public pensions and this issue goes away. Nobody cares what private companies do in this regard but paying taxes for Julia has two mommies is out of the question. Beat ‘em til they cry and beat ‘em for crying.

I’d like someone to actiually run on conservative principals for a change.

DanMan on January 10, 2013 at 7:02 PM

Will the establishment tell us we have to run Christie in order to win in 2016?

If Christie is the nominee, will he lose to Hillary?

Is a frog’s a$$ watertight?

JimLennon on January 10, 2013 at 7:04 PM

2016: Hillary 44, Christie 42

Is the for the Democratic candidates?
Christie will switch parties in the next two years.

albill on January 10, 2013 at 7:15 PM

DanMan Republicans should just keep quiet about social issues. Social issues are won and lost in the wider cultural arena. The pro life movement has understood this for quite awhile… See crisis pregnancy centers.

Illinidiva on January 10, 2013 at 7:15 PM

Hey, that’s just great!
Have (2) candidates, Clinton vs Christie, who stand for the same principles: liberalism.
Wouldn’t really matter which one got in.
If you want a little more variety, how about Biden/Big Sis vs McCain/Snow; the crowd will go crazy with 2 elderly white males touting the same message. At least Biden has more charisma….barely.

Belle on January 10, 2013 at 7:30 PM

No! No more Liberal Republican’s!

Garym on January 10, 2013 at 7:35 PM

Sorry, Garym, you think the GOP cares for conservatives? They hang them out to dry; remember Allen West? What they’ll give us is someone to the left of Romney. Why vote?

Belle on January 10, 2013 at 7:44 PM

Repeat Question: Does anyone read the post anymore or do they just comment without reading?..:)

Dire Straits on January 10, 2013 at 7:46 PM

I see–and what are the primary numbers for the two top contenders of the *Republican* nomination in 2016? :-P

M. Scott Eiland on January 10, 2013 at 7:50 PM

Perfect examples – as in two peas in the same pod – of what America has been reduced to. Pathetic…

Karmi on January 10, 2013 at 8:15 PM

Everyone says they don’t like Christie and won’t vote for him but …

You know the drill, every four years the Ayatollahs break out the old saw of “lesser of two evils”.

“Hey man, this nation can’t take another four years of Democratic control – you guys gotta VOTE CHRISTY or you are a traitor to your country!”

“Hey man, this is the MOST IMPORTANT election of our lifetimes! I know we say that every year but this year is SPECIAL cuz it’s REALLY TRUE!! You gotta vote Christie!”

“Christy is REALLY conservative – trust us dudes … at the very least he’s less Socialist than Hillary and that should be enough for you to support him!”

“You want to destroy the country? Then either don’t vote for Christie or don’t go to the polls!”

“He’ll get the independent vote and that’s all it takes to win!!”

HondaV65 on January 10, 2013 at 8:36 PM

I think Christie could win the presidential race, but I doubt he could win in the primary.

Othniel on January 10, 2013 at 6:18 PM

Don’t bet on it. likability is extremely important. When voters discover Christie is just another loud-mouth New Jersey jerk, it will be lights out for the Fat Man.

bw222 on January 10, 2013 at 8:38 PM

Unless the GOP closes the primaries (which they won’t) either Jeb or Christie will have the nomination sewn up before super Tuesday. Enjoy.

Kataklysmic on January 10, 2013 at 5:13 PM

One good thing about 2016 – unless Hillary locks it up early, there will be Democratic Primaries.

bw222 on January 10, 2013 at 8:50 PM

HondaV65: well said!
We were told that with McCain, then with Romney. This voter won’t be fooled again.

Belle on January 10, 2013 at 9:05 PM

Hillary 44, Christie 42

…you’re talking A$$ Width….right?

KOOLAID2 on January 10, 2013 at 11:58 PM

I live in Baltimore and have a lot of connections throughout Maryland. I know for a fact that O’Malley has cheated on his wife. Lets just hope that comes out at some point….not that I expect he could beat Christie or Rubio anyway.

UBuffaloBulls on January 11, 2013 at 2:34 AM

If it’s Christie vs. Hillary, I vote Libertarian.

Same goes if the GOP nominates a half-wit socon with a room-temp IQ like Santorum – or Huckabee, for that matter.

No big gov’t “conservatives” need apply, whether they’re socons or McCain wannabes like Christie.

DRayRaven on January 11, 2013 at 8:16 AM

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