galtg on January 3, 2013 at 1:17 PM

Thanks. Double-checked with Fausta earlier, and she said there probably won’t be anything officially announced until the 10th, when Chavez is supposed to be sworn in again.

This just came over the dj wire:

DJ UPDATE: More Venezuelan Officials Arrive in Cuba; Chavez’s Condition `Delicate`

CARACAS–More top leaders within Venezuela’s government arrived in Cuba
during the past two days, where ailing President Hugo Chavez apparently remains
in “delicate” condition after a six-hour surgery, raising concerns once again
that the 58-year-old leader is either at death’s door or has already passed
away.

somethings happenning

no Steve..no link..it came over a squawk box..posted it the minute i heard it..sorry..still no confirmation

DevilsPrinciple on January 3, 2013 at 11:27 AM

Link and attribution? I’d like to read that.

Whatever the WH needs them to be.

Gatsu on January 3, 2013 at 9:48 AM

This.

No. Four week moving average. Documented losses, 362,000

Estimated gains 215,000 no matter how you slice and dice it, it’s still -147,000 jobs. That remains regardless of the “Estimation” factor, a negative number. Moreover,it also remains 10,000 jobs fewer than are required just to keep up with population growth. Once again, it’s a negative number.

Now, the real question is, during that same period of time, how many people exhausted their unemployment benefits and as a consequence fellow off the unemployment roles artificially reducing the number of people unemployed?

SWalker on January 3, 2013 at 10:57 AM

I’ll try this again:

- The weekly initial jobless claims merely measures how many people that week filed for unemployment. It does not count how many people who were not working the prior week found jobs because, thankfully, most people don’t work for government, and government doesn’t require weekly reporting from the private-sector workforce.

- The monthly ADP and BLS jobs reports survey how many people are
working in the second full week of each month, and the difference between that number and the prior month’s number is an estimate of how many jobs were created or lost. It does not directly count how many people lost jobs or found jobs from the prior month.

- The ADP/BLS jobs created/lost estimate is the difference between the number of people who found jobs and the number of people who lost jobs.

Even though the proper 4-week average was the one from 3 weeks ago, and the ADP estimate is usually too high, let’s review the math with the numbers we have.

4-week average jobs found – 4-week average jobs lost = Monthly jobs gained/lost
4-week average jobs found – 362,000 jobs lost/week = 215,000 jobs created between Nov. and Dec.

How many people are getting off of food stamps?

gwelf on January 3, 2013 at 10:09 AM

and…how many people are going on disability?

With all due respect , Sir, I suggest that you review this.

December private jobs number surge to 215K on expectations of a 140K print. The primary reason for the spike, a +39K surge in construction jobs, supposedly in the aftermath of Sandy, as well as some +53 job additions in trade, transportation and utilities. Also, how ADP gets +14K financial jobs in the peak financial layoffs month (to avoid year end bonuses of course), is anyone’s guess. And while we should worry about that unemployment rate rapidly approaching the 6.5% Bernanke QE4EVA threshold end (don’t worry, tomorrow we will find that the labor participation rate mysteriously has started to grow again to actually push the unemployment rate higher now that the Obama re-election is no longer an issue), we definitely should not worry about America’s manufacturing renaissance, as the country lost yet another 11,000 manufacturing jobs ~ the 6th month in a row with mfg job declines and Ohio got fu*ked.

Positive thoughts for the people of Venezuela. If the rumor is true, may their next dictator leader be more benevolent.

1 million workers just disappeared off the rolls so they aren’t counted.

It’s ok though because those people didn’t really want jobs anyway, they enjoy scrounging for the basics.

Bishop on January 3, 2013 at 10:40 AM

Heh. Do you suppose illegal aliens are counted?

Whatever the WH needs them to be.

Gatsu on January 3, 2013 at 9:48 AM

..Obama does not need them to be anything. Because he’s locked in for another four years of public-paid-for vacations and rounds of golf, he will let the chips fall where they may.

SWalker on January 3, 2013 at 10:26 AM

You’re confusing gross with net. The formula is:

Gross Jobs Gained – Gross Jobs Lost = Net Jobs Gained-or-Lost

The -362K is roughly 1/5th (because there were 5 Saturdays) of the Gross Jobs Lost. The +215K (if ADP can be believed) is the Net Jobs Gained-or-Lost. We can only infer the Gross Jobs Gained because nobody tracks that directly.

Steve Eggleston on January 3, 2013 at 10:37 AM

No. Four week moving average. Documented losses, 362,000

Estimated gains 215,000 no matter how you slice and dice it, it’s still -147,000 jobs. That remains regardless of the “Estimation” factor, a negative number. Moreover,it also remains 10,000 jobs fewer than are required just to keep up with population growth. Once again, it’s a negative number.

Now, the real question is, during that same period of time, how many people exhausted their unemployment benefits and as a consequence fellow off the unemployment roles artificially reducing the number of people unemployed?

It’s ok though because those people didn’t really want jobs anyway, they enjoy scrounging for the basics.

SWalker on January 3, 2013 at 10:26 AM

You’re confusing gross with net. The formula is:

Gross Jobs Gained – Gross Jobs Lost = Net Jobs Gained-or-Lost

The -362K is roughly 1/5th (because there were 5 Saturdays) of the Gross Jobs Lost. The +215K (if ADP can be believed) is the Net Jobs Gained-or-Lost. We can only infer the Gross Jobs Gained because nobody tracks that directly.

I are not so good at maff, but…

215,000-362,000 seems to indicate -147,000 jobs… Yup… Sounds like were headed in the right direction all right.

galtg on January 3, 2013 at 10:14 AM

Seeing nothing on that. Got a link?

Ed- it would be helpful, I think, if someone could put together a chart showing ADP predictions and BLS reporting of monthly job numbers, along with the final reported number after revisions.
BKeyser on January 3, 2013 at 9:45 AM

Here ya go.
ADP Private Payrolls Spike – Zero Hedge

Hugo Chavez had died

The people of Venezuela are free..free at last !!!!