Fiscal cliff: Does Boehner have the votes? Update: Boehner vs. Cantor? Update: Boehner to vote yes? Report: House has majority for Senate bill; Update: Bill passes, 257-167
posted at 1:23 pm on January 1, 2013 by Allahpundit
I can’t believe this is what we’re doing on our holiday.
We have reached the point where temporarily averting self-inflicted disasters at the last second is a political success.
— Jim Antle (@jimantle) January 1, 2013
Well said, but don’t forget the punchline: Because the Bush tax cuts will be extended for most earners with next to nothing in offsetting spending cuts, the “deficit reduction deal” technically increases the deficit by nearly $4 trillion over the next decade. Bill Kristol, urging the House to vote yes in the interest of avoiding sequester defense cuts, aptly describes it as a “mess”:
The fiscal cliff deal that the Senate passed early this morning is ridiculous in too many ways to count. There seem to be no figures from the Congressional Budget Office and only “very preliminary” figures from the Joint Tax Committee about the real spending and revenue implications. The two month delay of the sequester will make actual governance even more difficult (how is the Pentagon supposed to plan for the rest of the year?). The sequester delay is funded by a gimmick with retirement savings tax rules that is a caricature of what has become of Washington legislation and policy making. Working Americans making less than $400,000 will be shocked when they find that, contrary to promises from both parties, their taxes are in fact going up (the payroll tax). And we will face another cliff when we hit the debt ceiling and the sequester again in two months.
The deal is a sad commentary on our politics today.
Actually, we face two more cliffs, first the sequester/debt ceiling standoff and then another over the next budget continuing resolution. If you’re serious about fiscal sustainability, the stakes couldn’t be lower. To the extent today’s House vote is interesting, it’s interesting as a type of bread-and-circus: Whether they pass the Senate bill today or pass a marginally less dismal deal in a week or two, the only thing that’s interesting about any of this is the facile political suspense of whether Boehner can muster enough Republican votes, whether Biden can keep Pelosi and House Democrats in line, and what it all means for the next zero-stakes confrontation between Obama and the GOP a few months from now. Ultimately, I think The One is the only player here who had appropriate contempt for the process. He knew nothing important would be achieved so he focused on tax hikes to try to diminish the opposition by driving a wedge in their caucus. In the end, he gave a little on the income threshold in exchange for fracturing House Republicans. Not a bad trade short-term.
Anyway. Does Boehner have the votes? Quite possibly, says the Hill:
To assess party loyalty, The Hill analyzed five controversial bills on fiscal matters that sparked outcry from factions on the right and significant defections from House GOP members: a March 15, 2011 stopgap funding bill; an April 14, 2011 bill that averted a government shutdown; an Aug. 1 roll call on the Budget Control Act; a Nov. 17, 2011 “minibus” appropriations measure; and a Feb. 17, 2012 vote to extend the payroll tax holiday. Republican defections ranged from 54 to 101 on these bills.
Despite the GOP infighting, 92 House Republicans didn’t buck leadership on any on of those measures. This group includes leadership lawmakers, committee and subcommittee chairmen and a surprising number of freshman members. Some of Boehner’s loyal legislators include GOP Reps. Cole, Steven LaTourette (Ohio), Pete King (N.Y.), Darrell Issa (Calif.), Gary Miller (Calif.), Tom Marino (Pa.), Jon Runyan (N.J.) and Steve Stivers (Ohio)…
There are an additional 51 House Republicans who broke ranks on only one of the five votes reviewed by The Hill, including GOP Reps. Bob Goodlatte (Va.), Jeb Hensarling (Texas), Tom Latham (Iowa), Steve Scalise (La.) and Frank Wolf (Va.).
That’s 143 gettable votes. Even if he lost 22 of those, he’d still have enough left over to keep his promise not to bring something to the floor that isn’t supported by a majority of House Republicans. The intrigue will come if he’s close to the magic number but not quite there. In that case, he’ll have to choose: Does he bring the bill to the floor anyway, risking a revolt in Thursday’s Speaker election, or does he torpedo the bill even though it likely will have majority support among the entire House? The GOP caucus is meeting as I write this to sound out its members, but reportedly they’re planning to have at least one more meeting today before making a decision on whether to vote. Are you not entertained?
Here’s Tom Cole, a Boehner loyalist, telling MSNBC he’ll definitely vote for the bill. He predicted this morning that a majority of House Republicans will vote yes as well. One other subplot to watch out for: How will Paul Ryan vote? He backed Boehner on Plan B, but with Rubio having voted no last night, the anti-tax ante for 2016 contenders has been upped. Ryan’s dilemma is that he wields much more influence over his caucus colleagues than Rubio does over his, so if he peels off, he could take enough with him to jeopardize the bill. Exit question: Democrats are crowing this morning that, having forced the GOP to accept new tax hikes now, it’ll be easier to make them do so again during the debt-ceiling negotiations. Is that true or will it actually be harder next time after Republicans face a backlash from their base and insist that they already checked the tax box back during the fiscal-cliff compromise?
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Update: Hmmmmmmmmmm.
Sources tell Fox News Boehner & Cantor are against Senate #fiscalcliff plan
— toddstarnes (@toddstarnes) January 1, 2013
Sources tell Fox News there may be only 30 Republicans willing to vote for Senate #fiscalcliff deal
— toddstarnes (@toddstarnes) January 1, 2013
Update: Sure sounds like we’re not going to have a vote today.
Breaking: Leaving mtg, Rep. Spencer Bachus says deal will “go back to the Senate.”
— Robert Costa (@robertcostaNRO) January 1, 2013
Update: More from Politico:
An overwhelming number of House Republicans in a party meeting Tuesday are calling on their leadership to amend the Senate’s bill to avert the fiscal cliff and send it back to the upper chamber, according to several sources in the meeting…
There is also some regret among Republicans about the party defeating Speaker John Boehner’s “Plan B” before the holidays, which would have raised taxes on millionaires, whereas the bill the Senate passed around 2 a.m. New Year’s Day raises taxes on households making more than $450,000…
Emerging as a stick point among House Republicans is how McConnell and Biden delayed the sequester — automatic spending cuts. The two-month delay is being viewed by House Republicans as inadequate in that it doesn’t reduce spending immediately.
Hope they’re ready for the backlash tomorrow when markets open way down and our fair and balanced press corps gets back to work.
Update: At least we’re getting our money’s worth of political suspense from this ridiculous charade.
Huelskamp tells me Cantor was vocally opposed during mtg. Says “real divisions” btwn Boehner and Cantor
— Robert Costa (@robertcostaNRO) January 1, 2013
Huelskamp says conservatives in House pleasantly surprised to see Cantor come out and knock down deal in front of Boehner
— Robert Costa (@robertcostaNRO) January 1, 2013
Huelskamp says upcoming leadership elections loomed over today’s mtg. Says Cantor aware of importance of this vote in terms of his power
— Robert Costa (@robertcostaNRO) January 1, 2013
If Boehner brings the bill to the floor over Cantor’s opposition, does that guarantee a “Boehner vs. Cantor” election for Speaker on Thursday?
Update: A few commenters are grumbling about my backlash point above. Fact: There will be a backlash tomorrow if this doesn’t pass. It is what it is. And that’s fine — it’s worth driving a hard bargain to get something important done, even at the price of a backlash. Just remind me again what “important” goal will be achieved by forcing a new round of negotiations. What sort of spending cuts do you expect to see here? A trillion dollars over 10 years when we’re running trillion-dollar deficits annually? Even if they got Obama to agree to that, why would you believe that future Congresses would allow those cuts to happen down the line? This entire process is an elaborate charade designed to postpone the ultimate reckoning on entitlement reform, and you’re simply not going to wring serious entitlement reform out of the Democrats given the two parties’ current postures. Obama just won reelection; the Democrats expanded their numbers in the House and Senate; entitlement reform remains depressingly unpopular among the public despite attempts to educate them about the role mandatory spending plays in driving the national debt. House Republicans aren’t going to hold out for weeks on end in the futile hope of revamping Medicare against that backdrop while middle-class voters stew over their new, higher tax brackets. Why risk some of the GOP’s small reserve of political capital on a deal that’s only negligibly less terrible than this one? I understand the “let it burn” strategy, to force the public to fully absorb the cost of big government. I don’t understand this one.
A quote from Philip Klein: “There’s a lot to hate in this deal, no doubt. But any honest assessment of it must grapple with the reality of Obama as president, Harry Reid as Senate Majority Leader and $4.5 trillion in automatic tax hikes hitting in the new year. With this in mind, I’d rate the deal as objectively bad, but relatively good.”
Update: House Republicans weigh the backlash factor.
Update: If this is true, Boehner’s goal of 120+ Republican votes seems impossible:
Latourette tells Luke Russert there are 40 or 50 GOP yes votes right now.
— Matt Lewis (@mattklewis) January 1, 2013
Update: And now some pressure on Boehner from the left as a Democratic aide warns that the Senate bill is a take-it-or-leave-it proposition:
“The House Republicans have two choices: cut their losses and pass the deal now, or else put up a fight they cannot win and pass the same deal a few days now after being further humiliated,” said a Senate Democratic leadership aide.
Another senior Democratic aide said Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) will not reconsider the bill, which passed by a vote of 89 to 8.
“We’re done,” said the aide.
Update: The word on Twitter is that the GOP caucus will huddle at 5:15 ET. Possible outcomes: Boehner has the votes for the Senate plan and brings it to the floor to try to pass it; Boehner *doesn’t* have the votes but brings it to the floor so that House Republicans can add amendments related to spending cuts; Boehner refuses to bring it to the floor. The first outcome seems unlikely and the third would suffer from terrible optics, so expect JB to choose what’s behind door number two.
Update: Good question.
Very curious as to what Cantor thinks can get through the House and Senate.
— Reihan Salam (@reihan) January 1, 2013
Update: Sounds like Boehner’s going to give the Senate bill a shot — maybe.
House GOP putting out word that if 218 Republicans commit, Speaker Boehner will seek to amend Senate ‘cliff’ bill with spending cuts.
— Mark Knoller (@markknoller) January 1, 2013
But if 218 Republicans dont commit to spending amendment, GOP aide says Boehner will bring up Senate ‘cliff’ bill for up or down vote.
— Mark Knoller (@markknoller) January 1, 2013
In other words, for the Senate bill to come to the floor, something like 15 Republicans have to oppose amending the bill to include spending cuts. Are there 15 in the entire caucus willing to go on record and do that, even if they’re doing it in the interest of trying to pass the Senate bill now and avert fiscal-cliff aftershocks tomorrow?
Update: The strategy here, I assume, is to use the prospective failure of the amended bill to prove to Republicans that nothing except the Senate bill can pass the House. If they can’t get 218 among their own caucus to support extending the negotiations by demanding cuts, then maybe some GOPers who dislike the Senate bill will hold their noses and vote for it.
Update: Yep, sure sounds like that’s what Boehner has in mind. He’s trying to get the Senate bill through:
Boy is it clear @speakerboehner does not want this fight. Made clear to members the risks in amending the senate vote. #understatement
— Dana Bash (@DanaBashCNN) January 1, 2013
Update: A Senate Democratic leadership aide reiterates that a vote to amend the bill in the House is effectively a vote to kill the Senate bill. There’ll be no more fiscal cliff action until the new Congress is seated on Thursday. Quote: “The aide added that House Republicans should not have stepped away from White House negotiations if they needed spending reductions to get the deal.”
Update: DrewM wonders if the spending-cuts amendment might fail simply because some critical mass of conservatives refuses to vote for any bill that doesn’t extend the Bush tax cuts for everyone. In other words, they’ll vote no even on an amended bill because it lets taxes go up on earners who make $450K. The amount of spending cuts attached will be irrelevant. If that’s what they end up doing, it’ll be an awfully dangerous gamble. Once the amended bill fails, you’ll see 100+ Democratic votes flood in for the unamended Senate bill; conceivably you could see nearly the entire Dem caucus vote yes, which means it would take only 40-50 Republicans to vote with them to pass the Biden/McConnell bill with zero cuts. (One of the earlier updates above suggested that that might be feasible.) What that would mean for Boehner’s Speakership, given that he’ll have violated the “majority of the majority” rule to pass it, I don’t know.
Another possibility: What if the amended bill fails and then the up-or-down vote on the Senate bill fails too? After the failure of Plan B and then the failure of two compromise bills, the narrative tomorrow will be that virtually nothing can pass the House.
Update: Sounds like an up-or-down vote might be coming:
Radically different tone coming out of this meeting. Seems doubtful the amendment path will get 218.
— Jonathan Strong (@j_strong) January 1, 2013
Update: Wow. First time I’ve heard this all day:
Rep John Fleming (La) said sentiment in GOP mtg now is to pass senate bill as is, maybe with mostly Dem votes. Realize they’re beat
— Daniel Newhauser (@dnewhauser) January 1, 2013
Update: Just to underscore my point earlier about what a farce this all is, here’s what the House is mulling as their big counteroffer to the Senate on spending:
If there are enough GOP votes to pass the first approach, the House would amend the fiscal cliff bill and send it back to the Senate, the aide said. A second senior GOP leadership aide said that leaders were mulling adding $300 billion in spending cuts to the bill. Details of those cuts weren’t yet available.
That’s $300 billion over 10 years, I take it, or $30 billion annually. Now, go look at this graphic at Zero Hedge and see for yourself how much $30 billion is relative to the annual deficits we’re running these days. This “spending cuts” proposal is a face-saving gesture by the GOP, nothing more. And it still might not pass their own caucus.
Update: Robert Costa says the spending-cuts amendment is in deep trouble:
Members email from floor: spending amendment doesn’t have 218. Not likely to pass. Rules getting ready to move on Sen deal as is.
— Robert Costa (@robertcostaNRO) January 2, 2013
Members think Boehner has at least 50-70 Repubs on Sen deal, with number increasing right now on floor
— Robert Costa (@robertcostaNRO) January 2, 2013
Can Pelosi deliver 150-170 Democrats? That’s a tall order even for her.
Update: According to GOP Rep. Tim Murphy, the House will vote on the Senate bill sometime tonight. Apparently they couldn’t find 218 Republicans willing to vote for the bill even with a few hundred billion in spending cuts tacked on as an amendment.
Update: I’m honestly shocked:
Rep. Nugent says Boehner told members that if amendment didn’t get 218 votes, he would personally vote yes on unamended Senate bill
— Russell Berman (@russellberman) January 2, 2013
Remember, the Speaker typically doesn’t vote on bills. He’ll get enough flak from conservative groups if this thing passes with less than a Republican majority that you’d think he wouldn’t want to double down by lending his own vote to the compromise, especially with Cantor publicly opposed to the bill. Either he’s supremely confident that there aren’t 17 Republicans in the caucus willing to block his election as Speaker on Thursday or he’s reached the point where he doesn’t care if they do.
Update: Robert Costa says Boehner’s confident he has 218 from the full House for the Senate bill:
Source close to whip process tells me that Boehner knows he has enough votes to get Senate deal through w/ Dems, now wooing a few undecideds
— Robert Costa (@robertcostaNRO) January 2, 2013
Chuck Todd hears that the vote may come at around 9:30 ET.
Update: Hmmmm:
So Cantor told caucus he’s oppsd to Sen deal, but stands w/ Boehner. Boehner reportedly yea on deal, however. We shall see how it plays out
— Robert Costa (@robertcostaNRO) January 2, 2013
Update: A footnote from Robert Costa: Allegedly, Boehner will vote only if his vote is needed to get to 218.
Update: The word on Twitter is that the final vote will come at around 11:15 p.m. ET. If you’re sticking around for the end of this charade, you’re a more diligent political junkie than me.
Update: At 11 p.m. ET, it’s a done deal. 257-167, with Democrats providing most of the votes. The Dems split 172-16, Republicans split 85-151. Boehner didn’t come close to satisfying the “majority of the majority” rule, which leaves him on thin ice for Thursday’s Speaker vote. At least he didn’t hide, though: He voted yes tonight, as did Paul Ryan, much to Team Rubio’s delight. Meanwhile, the rest of the leadership team — i.e. Eric Cantor and Kevin McCarthy — voted no, although Cantor waited until the bill had 218 votes to register his meaningless disapproval.
Hard to believe we might have the same leadership in the next Congress as we did for this process, but then not long ago it was also hard to believe we’d have the same leadership in the White House and the Senate in 2013 as we had in 2012. And yet here we are.
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The only good part of the bill, for us lower income Americans that don’t live off the taxpayer, is the alternative minimum tax fix. That will be a “killer” at tax time. We’re all going to get hit with higher taxes, including Obmanocare tax, & there isn’t anything we can do about it. Obama is a tax & spend socialist, & I do believe he actually hopes this deal goes down so he can rake in the revenue.
Belle on January 1, 2013 at 3:24 PM
.
Too many Christians sincerely believe that our government is God’s tool, to make life “more fair”, as they define fair.
listens2glenn on January 1, 2013 at 3:25 PM
Well YEAH. Tuck tail and run because this is how it works, when you lose you are supposed to kowtow.
This rolling obliviousness to what can happen is mind-boggling, as if Bark’s every command should become reality. Either that or sauropod is just another leftist drone preaching the compromise line.
At what point should free men just say “NO”, when the trains are rolling into the collection yard or after they are already aboard.
Bishop on January 1, 2013 at 3:25 PM
F*cking moron. The “stage has been set for socialism” and the GOP is helping it happen – wake the f*ck up.
Midas on January 1, 2013 at 3:26 PM
Heritage says ….
Incomes over 250k will be limited as to deductions
and those rates will rise also .
#’s ? None yet .
Guess you have to pass the bill to find out what’s
in it .
Lucano on January 1, 2013 at 3:27 PM
Mrscullen: “The republicans are commiting suicide on their political careers. Good”.
You really think so?
With a HUGE built in Dem base (illegals, amnesty, obama phone takers, food stamp takers, corporate welfare takers, taxpayer funded unions) you really think there is any future for republicans? Sadly, I do believe we’ll be in a minority for decades…again, thanks to turncoat Roberts, in 2014 we’ll live under super majority Dem rule.
Lord, help us.
Belle on January 1, 2013 at 3:27 PM
In reality the GOP is Conservative at least the vast majority of those who vote for it are. We just need to take control of the party we already have from the small number at the top of it that have stolen control of it.
Steveangell on January 1, 2013 at 3:27 PM
So , sounds like a business killer to me !
Lucano on January 1, 2013 at 3:28 PM
Othniel on January 1, 2013 at 3:09 PM
Indeed and sorry that I confused the Edwardses.
——-
Why the Looters must be starved. Quit producing and feeding them.
——-
Genuine, you are an eternal fool. I apologize for misspelling “narcissistic”. Other than that it’s not hyperbole. You are just too blind to see, and really to obtuse.
Schadenfreude on January 1, 2013 at 3:28 PM
Obama even said in his presser yesterday that he will only consider spending cuts that are coupled with tax increases. We’ve seen this game play out the same way over and over again. The taxes go into effect immediately. The cuts are cuts in growth, are minimal in year 1, and by year 2 congress already has forgotten about their previous plan and we’re making a new deal to raise taxes.
Spending never gets cut. Even with sequestration, or discretionary spending for 2013 will be higher than for 2012.
Timin203 on January 1, 2013 at 3:28 PM
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2013/01/01/Fiscal-Cliff-Deal-Punishes-Work-Rewards-Unemployment
davidk on January 1, 2013 at 3:28 PM
If there is any better testament to what a farce Obamacare’s CBO numbers were, it’s the CLASS act. This was supposed to bring about half of the alleged deficit cuts. The only problem? The program itself wasn’t sustainable and they killed it long ago. This just makes it less embarrassing.
Many more ObamaCare boners to come!
Chuck Schick on January 1, 2013 at 3:28 PM
Not really.
Just look at the authors of it.
This should have been known from the time Reid got his best GOP friend to sign on to Reids bill.
Steveangell on January 1, 2013 at 3:29 PM
Yeah, Obama gets more then asked for in this bill. Deductions will be limited for people making $250+ (like Boehner proposed), PLUS people making $400k + will face higher rates as well. So for those people and businesses, they will be facing fewer deductions AND a higher rate.
Timin203 on January 1, 2013 at 3:30 PM
… and to continue my earlier post, when the House gets a new leader, continue to post – every damn day if possible – another tax cut / spending cut / budget surplus bill, and send it to the Senate. Take out ads and billboards with a day counter that shows how many days, how many times the GOP has passed a tax cut / spending cut / budget surplus bill that the Senate/President/Dems refuse to address, and sing it again and again in front of as many microphones as can be found that the House GOP has been trying to fix the problem while everyone else plays politicos and Rome burns – that the House GOP wants EVERYONE to pay less taxes and wants to control the government spending, etc.
But then, that might require testicles, a spine, and an actual assortment of GOP folks that weren’t utter f*ckwits and actually *wanted* this stuff to happen, rather than *wanting* to bend over and take it up the arse again from the Dems while the country goes up in flames.
Midas on January 1, 2013 at 3:31 PM
LOL!!!!
Cantor is making his move for power.
Just as the founding fathers designed it. They realized that humans have a natural desire for power and the best way to design a free country it to have different egos and power grabs balance themselves out preventing anyone from ever getting absolute power.
I actually think this is good for the GOP…we need a shake up and even I don’t think much of Cantor anymore than I do Boehner, we need this. So good for Cantor. Hopefully this continues so we can freshen things up.
William Eaton on January 1, 2013 at 3:31 PM
Permanent Trollcott this fool.
SWalker on January 1, 2013 at 3:31 PM
“… as if Bark’s every command should become reality.”
Obama wanted tax rates increased on individuals earning $200K and up. The bill raises rates on individuals making $400K and up.
Obama wanted the estate tax to kick in at $3.5 mil. The bill sets the threshold at $5 mil.
Obama did not get everything he wanted.
‘At what point should free men just say “NO”, when the trains are rolling into the collection yard or after they are already aboard.’
Assuming “the trains” are supposed to be taking us to Auschwitz, I’d invoke Godwin’s Law here.
Raising marginal tax rates on the highest earners is not exactly Kristallnacht.
Perspective, people!
sauropod on January 1, 2013 at 3:31 PM
davidk on January 1, 2013 at 3:31 PM
Agreed. We haven’t been working toward socialism since 2008 with the election and then reelection of the exact people who have been pushing it. It’s only NOW that Tea Partiers have screwed everything up…or something. Your “Party” has left you behind, betrayed you.
Bishop on January 1, 2013 at 3:33 PM
I luv me sum mo’ cowbell.
Resist We Much on January 1, 2013 at 3:33 PM
U know. After this last election and the debates when in my opinion Romney just seemed so much smarter than
Obama, I decided its time to let Americans feel the pain of what’s to come. Tax us all. I’m middle class. I would love to have more money for my family but I’m to the point where give us socialized medicine and take more money away. Let Americans get what they voted for.
mrscullen on January 1, 2013 at 3:33 PM
Why tyrants, once ensconced, always get rid of their minions. They hate the weasels more than anyone. However, without the sheep they can never become tyrants.
Schadenfreude on January 1, 2013 at 3:33 PM
I sure hope so. Boehner has been a complete and utter disaster.
That being sad, McConnell is just as bad.
Norwegian on January 1, 2013 at 3:34 PM
Does that mean the Obamas are going to have to go on welfare?
Resist We Much on January 1, 2013 at 3:34 PM
Kemper County Mississippi Messanger
October 11th, 1984
The whole situation is so familiar give a few zeros and 2 decades plus…
Then again it is a little late now for a committee, the bill is due!
Tilly on January 1, 2013 at 3:34 PM
davidk on January 1, 2013 at 3:35 PM
JPeterman on January 1, 2013 at 3:35 PM
That moronic Democrat Senator is just the guy I want on a commission like that – doesn’t know the difference between the ‘debt’ (see his first f*cking sentence) and the ‘deficit’.
Midas on January 1, 2013 at 3:37 PM
I know!!! The CLASS Act has always been unrealistic/unsustainable and even most Democrats have been looking for a way to repeal it. So, in the “spirit of compromise,” they “sacrificed” Ted Kennnedy’s “legacy” to the mean GOP. They are so noble.
**eyeroll***
Resist We Much on January 1, 2013 at 3:38 PM
Republicans have now shown that they were not serious about not raising taxes. Obama is saying any spending cuts must be coupled with tax increases. That means that in a few months, we will be having this fight again (over the debt ceiling or something else), and Republicans will raise taxes on those making $250-400 or limit more deductions or do SOMETHING in order for cuts that never materialize.
That is the history of these negotiations. Boehner showed he’s willing to move on no new taxes, and that will be exploited at every opening.
permanent tax rates mean nothing. Its the same as it has always been, but there won’t be periodic voting. If Dems want to raise taxes, they can call a vote at any time to do it.
Timin203 on January 1, 2013 at 3:38 PM
Obama wanted tax rates increased on individuals earning $200K and up. The bill raises rates on individuals making $400K and up.
Obama wanted the estate tax to kick in at $3.5 mil. The bill sets the threshold at $5 mil.
Obama did not get everything he wanted.
‘At what point should free men just say “NO”, when the trains are rolling into the collection yard or after they are already aboard.’
Assuming “the trains” are supposed to be taking us to Auschwitz, I’d invoke Godwin’s Law here.
Raising marginal tax rates on the highest earners is not exactly Kristallnacht.
Perspective, people!
sauropod on January 1, 2013 at 3:31 PM
Huge difference on the taxable income, yep, HUGE. In fact the feds will now rake in an extra $20 billion over the next 10 years and erase that deficit in no time.
Same for the death tax, a whopping $1.5 million difference. Woo hooooo! Success!
Yeah, not exactly Kristallnacht, that’s what all non-Jewish Germans said too, “Hey, these actions are only targeting them, not us, so it’s cool. The brownshirts will never be used against other groups.”
Call it Godwin’s Law if you like. I’m wondering what other people throughout history criticized people for invoking when they said “Hey, that could never happen here.”
Bishop on January 1, 2013 at 3:39 PM
‘Fiscal Cliff’ Deal Punishes Work, Rewards Unemployment.
Schadenfreude on January 1, 2013 at 3:40 PM
You people really are clueless at Hot Air aren’t you? It’s kike Jazz Shaw is posting everything these days.
The Democrats want nothing more than to have Republicans on record supporting tax hikes. This is all a political and rheotorical game to them, not serious policy proposals. This site is as lost as the Republican leadership.
Daemonocracy on January 1, 2013 at 3:40 PM
This was the tipping point. The SC ruling on Obama care put conservatism on it’s heals and there is no one in office willing to energetically fight this.
Vince on January 1, 2013 at 3:41 PM
^kike meant to be like, I wasn’t attacking Jazz Shaw’s religion, whatever it is.
Daemonocracy on January 1, 2013 at 3:42 PM
In what reality do you live in ??
“In reality the GOP is Conservative”
That is one of THE most ridiculous statements I’ve ever heard.
tencole on January 1, 2013 at 3:42 PM
Obama’s obnoxious performance and loud claims of victory may be part of a hope that the GOP bucks its leaders and vote no because they are angry. This will get the GOP blamed for everything bad that comes whether recession or just the higher tax rates and get the GOP beat in the general election. This is a long war not a short one. Fredricksburg and Gettysburg both show the foolishness of not choosing your ground for a battle well. By taking as much reduction in taxes as we can get now, will just strengthen our hand when we push for spending cuts later and the public will be much more on our side. That is where victory will be won if we can get long term control over entitlement spending. Getting a split between the TEA Party and GOP right now will mean GOP defeat in 2014 and Obama making his changed America permanent.
KW64 on January 1, 2013 at 3:42 PM
It’s not that I disagree with you but would you elaborate please?
Vince on January 1, 2013 at 3:43 PM
Exactly my point. They $250 verse $400 didn’t matter to the democrats at all. It was all about the republicans accepting the premise that taxes needed to go up, not down. Boehner proposing his plan B was the biggest victory for Obama in a while.
Remember, this whole “cliff” was set up to force spending cuts after our last debt ceiling negotiation.
Instead of spending cuts, we have tax hikes. But yeah, Republicans won this one.
Timin203 on January 1, 2013 at 3:43 PM
I think there are a few already formed. You should join them.
thebrokenrattle on January 1, 2013 at 3:43 PM
If Paul Ryan wants to remain somebody who can be taken seriously he’s going to have to step out of the shadows here and make his presence known.
Mark1971 on January 1, 2013 at 3:44 PM
Memo to arm chair conservative hard asses:
As of 12:00 AM January 1, 2013, the Bush tax cuts expired and the sequester became law.
Your taxes just went up. If you have a defense industry related job, be prepared to lose it.
If you have a 401K or other money in the market, be prepared for huge losses when the market begins a historic tanking tomorrow.
Be prepared to lose your job when the economy finally goes into recession.
You are angry over a deal that gives us limited tax increases and no spending cuts over a reality that gives us huge tax increases and massive spending cuts to defense.
I guess that’s logical.
That posturing little p#ssy Cantor better be ready to go to the mattresses. Because he will not get a better deal. We make this deal or go over the cliff. And if we go over the cliff, Republicans and conservatives better be ready to eat sh*t for a long time. I mean really fight, refuse any compromise, refuse any vote, accept one that gives total capitulation by the Democrats.
Anyone wanna bet on that happening?
Mr. Arkadin on January 1, 2013 at 3:44 PM
katablog.com on January 1, 2013 at 3:46 PM
Good for Cantor et.al.
burt on January 1, 2013 at 3:46 PM
THERE ARE NO TAX REDUCTIONS! Every single person in America who works will be paying MORE in taxes this upcoming paycheck, not less.
Just because congress & obama agreed to set up this fiscal cliff that automatically raised taxes, then come around at 12:30 and vote against the bill they previously supported (tax rates going up 1/1/13) does not make it a tax cut!
Timin203 on January 1, 2013 at 3:46 PM
Kathleen Kennedy Townsend wrote an op-ed last year in which she claimed that if Jesus were alive today, he’d want charity to be given in the form of government programs. “Society” is now equated with “government.”
Wethal on January 1, 2013 at 3:47 PM
“Huge difference on the taxable income, yep, HUGE.”
Doubling the threshold for higher rates (from $200K to $400K) seems pretty huge.
“Same for the death tax, a whopping $1.5 million difference. Woo hooooo! Success!”
A decade ago, the death tax was 55% of everything over $1 mil. That was true even in the Reagan years. Now it will be 40% of everything over $5 mil. Looks like progress to me.
“Yeah, not exactly Kristallnacht, that’s what all non-Jewish Germans said too.”
So you think that raising tax rates on the highest earners by a few percentage points really is like Kristallnacht? Come on.
sauropod on January 1, 2013 at 3:48 PM
No Clinton Era Taxes without Clinton Era Spending Cuts….
Repeat over and over again…while beating a drum and wearing a Guy Fawkes mask…
William Eaton on January 1, 2013 at 3:49 PM
The cliff was set up by Boehner and Obama when they voted for the existing tax rates, which have been law for 10 years, to go up on 1/1/13.
They then come around and vote to only let the rates go up on some people and limit deductions to others and claim they cut our taxes.
So if Boehner wrote & passed a law that said everyones tax rate go up to 100% on March 3, but at 12:30 AM on March 3, changed that to “everyones tax rates go to 50%,” your argument would be we had the biggest tax cut in history?
Timin203 on January 1, 2013 at 3:49 PM
Mr. Arkadin on January 1, 2013 at 3:44 PM
Bingo!
sauropod on January 1, 2013 at 3:50 PM
McConnell, Boehner AND Cantor are all from the same mold. Cantor is making a power move that’s all about him….not because replacing Boehner is a move that’s good for conservatives or the country.
Like the saying goes….it’s not replacing a person that’s important….it’s who we replace him with.
If Boehner’s going out….it’s time for a true constitutional conservative to come in.
tencole on January 1, 2013 at 3:50 PM
Some men look old and wise. McConnell just looks old, and past his use-by date.
STL_Vet on January 1, 2013 at 3:50 PM
Soooooooo…
… When does the next season of American Idol start?
Seven Percent Solution on January 1, 2013 at 3:51 PM
Going over the cliff is our best option…
We cannot avoid the cuts forever, stop delaying the inevitable…
If we keep avoiding recessions, we will end up with one big depression…
We either take our medicine now, or be forced later and the patient is only getting sicker by the day…
The positives with going over the cliff is food and energy would become cheaper in effect a tax cut to all Americans as the dollar would strengthen…
We would start to get serious about deficits, which would gain confidence of people…
Sure we might shave off 4% GDP, but recessions are a natural thing and to keep avoiding them will lead us into the biggest depression we ever seen, worse than 2008…
MGardner on January 1, 2013 at 3:51 PM
It’s not the actual number rate — 39.6% may prove to be only incrementally worse for economic growth then 35%, its that all of washington seems to think that in order to cover all of their ww2 emergency level spending, all they have to do is say theyre going to raise taxes on the rich. The media repeats it, low information voters soak it up.
How are the republicans goign to be able to vote against another 5% increase for the top 2% if thats part of the next deal? Theyve already accept the premise that we need to raise taxes to pay for spending, they definitely wont see the amount of “revenue” from this tax hike that they think they will, and Obama will be able to sell it as “the rich are hiding their money and not paying their fair share, so we need to hike taxes more, limit more deductions, etc.,” and the republicans already proved they will go along with that line of thinking.
Timin203 on January 1, 2013 at 3:53 PM
Yeah wow, I’m having trouble containing my excitement. In real numbers the difference between $200k and $400k is nothing, same for the Death Tax. Nothing. It means nothing because it will affect nothing other than having the GOP on record as being ok with such measures when the next hit comes.
History has proven again and again that societies who just keep giving in eventually doom themselves. It starts small, usually with one group being separated from the pack, and then gains speed until most everyone is included.
Please explain to me why I’m supposed to be excited that this great deal is targeting a $400k threshold when it won’t make a speck of difference on a deficit that is going to exceed $20 trillion in a few years? Why is this good, because Bark was supposedly forced to trim his demand a little bit? Getting punched in the face with less force is still getting punched.
Bishop on January 1, 2013 at 3:55 PM
Dead on point.
(and truly sad)
Tim_CA on January 1, 2013 at 3:55 PM
I guarantee Obama’s not happy with this deal either, which is why you saw him dump out his purse in last night’s little tirade. This Bush tax cut expiration today is a total gimme. As he correctly told Boehner, he gets the hikes for free. If the Senate deal goes through, he will sign 85% of the Bush tax cuts and all of the AMT patches into permanent law, taking them completely off the table to fund his $800 billion a year in new spending that came in with the FY2010 budget.
Obama wanted $1.6T in new revenues, he’s getting 1/3 of that – if he’s lucky. Between these hikes and those in ObamaCare, expect alot of tax planning to mitigate investment exposure until the next tax deal.
At best, this tax deal will pay for 5% of his deficits, and the GOP can go into the next round without an expiration bearing down on them. They’ve already brought the tax hikes, so they can ask for the “balanced approach” Obama repeatedly asked for, and lied about.
Clearly all Obama wants is tax hikes, and he’ll piss most of it away if he signs this deal. And he’s made lower/middle class tax hikes off limits, which we all know is where all the money is.
Chuck Schick on January 1, 2013 at 3:57 PM
This is getting absolutely ridiculous. Last minute stop-gap temporary measures that fix things for 2 months??? No, I’m sick of it. I’ve been pretty suppoertive of Boehner he’s in a really tough spot, but I’m to the point of just no, go over the cliff. Two things, nothing more temporary, bring me a permanent bill or no vote, I’d rather actually us go through sequestration now than face it looming in 2 more months. Also, this stupid deal makes the deficit worse than the cliff, go over the cliff. I agree, if people want big government, they should pay for it.
If those two things aren’t there, the temporary gimmicks (the IRA one to pay for unemployment is another stupid one) and the spending in it that worsens the deficit, I’d say ok, keep working with them and get what we can get. But no, it’s gotten ridiculous, republicans should have no fingerprints on this mess. Go over the cliff. Then tell the Dems, it’s yours. If you want to do anything, come to me with a permanent plan that improves the deficit with spending cuts or live with what you’ve created.
Bush was stupid to do his tax cuts with all these lame temporary timelines, the estate tax changes it created year to year was awful, and look how the situation has deteriorated since then. Just enough. It’s got to stop and stop now.
rose-of-sharon on January 1, 2013 at 3:58 PM
Yeah right, the handful of “true constitutional conservatives” in the house hardly have enough power to take that job away from the establishment.
No one has come up with a plan to get serious about deficits. Sequestration is only a cut in the rate of growth. No one has presented a plan that cuts real spending.
Timin203 on January 1, 2013 at 3:59 PM
There is no money. Until the debt limit is cut off this is just whistling past the graveyard.
On another matter it didn’t take my new Senator Dean Heller, NV long to turn turtle. He used to be quite conservative.
BullShooterAsInElk on January 1, 2013 at 3:59 PM
Mr. Arkadin on January 1, 2013 at 3:44 PM
libfleeordie makes similar arguments.
The kids and grandkids should despise you, moochers and Looters.
Schadenfreude on January 1, 2013 at 3:59 PM
Couples at $450K…
So FFS…STAY SINGLE!…It really pays now.
Tim_CA on January 1, 2013 at 4:00 PM
What makes you think anything is off the table? They can change tax rates, deductions, etc., tomorrow if they wanted to. Congress can’t bind themselves or future congresses, all they have to do is pass a law to change the rates.
Timin203 on January 1, 2013 at 4:01 PM
I apparently missed some of that. Now I’ll have to go do some homework.
I want them to hold as many press conferences as it takes to simply explain that we have a SPENDING PROBLEM and vote to LET IT BURN.
dogsoldier on January 1, 2013 at 4:01 PM
AP, I can’t believe that you and I actually agree on something.
tencole on January 1, 2013 at 4:01 PM
Because moochers and Looters love the idea.
The rich will never suffer, but they will starve the Looters, hallelujah.
Schadenfreude on January 1, 2013 at 4:01 PM
Yep. And, um… good. Probably what we need to start taking things seriously.
Ditto.
Been out of the market for quite a while now. Saw this coming – didn’t you?
What do you think is going to happen if we raise taxes and spending anyway? Avert this somehow by ignoring the problem?
Yeah, it kind of is. Depends on whether you want to address the problem, or simply delay it as long as possible, when it will actually be worse – which seems to be your desire.
Not going to bet on it, but it’s what’s needed. And absent that, then going over the cliff is a better option than dragging this out until it’s worse and harder to deal with.
Look, I get that it’s painful, and that a ‘deal’ here as is being discussed will be less painful tomorrow – but do you see that it will be more painful down the road when we *must* eventually actually *do* something about the problem?
We have a badly wounded leg, and the doc is telling us that it’ll hurt to fix it, but if we don’t fix it today, it will turn gangrenous and we’ll lose it.
So… want to fix it painfully today, or wait and talk about it later?
Midas on January 1, 2013 at 4:01 PM
Rep. Huelskamp is quoted as being pleasantly surprised that Cantor came out against the deal. Neither he, nor anyone else should ever forget Cantor’s snakelike personality. I suspect that this position has more to do with getting support as an opponent to John Boehner in the vote for Speaker, than anything else. I bet Boehner is finding out today that Cantor is a snake. Let’s wait and see what happens.
Blaise on January 1, 2013 at 4:01 PM
Oooh, I don’t think the girlfriend or I have too worry too much about hitting that tax bracket any time soon. :).
Timin203 on January 1, 2013 at 4:02 PM
My fiancee and I had our baby 4 days ago and will stay married with rings only for this very reason. Plus we both own homes and get double the mortgage write off by not marrying.
So many taxes are voluntary. Just ask Warren Buffet how he pays 16% tax rates despite a 28% AMT floor.
Chuck Schick on January 1, 2013 at 4:04 PM
Good grief
forest on January 1, 2013 at 4:04 PM
Yeah Cantor is probably a “snake” but I prefer him to that crybaby Boehner…. Rather have Ryan but he’s too smart for that…
sandee on January 1, 2013 at 4:04 PM
You two will be there before you know it.
The consequences of bammie’s printing press will soon be upon us.
Tim_CA on January 1, 2013 at 4:05 PM
Congrat’s on the baby.
JPeterman on January 1, 2013 at 4:06 PM
Clueless, increasing taxes on the rich isn’t going to fix the situation and should not be agreed to, under any circumstances. The GOP can vote present, but the Senate GOP just admitted how truly stupid and incompetent they are.
“Millionaires and Billionairs” earning over $250k ARE ALREADY PAYING ALMOST ALL THE TAXES. We know, heck go watch the Tony Robbins video.
dogsoldier on January 1, 2013 at 4:07 PM
With all due repect, AP, I think the only thing you understand is “How to be a surrender monkey”
McConnel gets rolled, willingly, by Biden and comes up with a worse deal than the one Boehner negotiated and could net get the votes for …
… and your response is, “OHHH! The media will throw poo at the Republicans! We must accept this MUCH WORSE deal!”
Out here in flyover country, we have had ENOUGH of the media and the people in the media cities that BOW DOWN before them.
LET.IT.BURN!
The markets are only above their March 2009 lows because Bernanke is commited to throwing $ 1 trillion /year at them forever.
Do a little … what’s the word? … RESEARCH!
The Federal Reserve admitted last year the markets would be at their March 2009 lows if it wasn’t for Benanke’s “Check Kiting Uber Alles” plan which IS causing INFLATION and DEVALUING the U.S. dollar.
… but hey, ignore the little people and their suffering – that’s what all the liberals and RINO’s are doing these days.
PolAgnostic on January 1, 2013 at 4:07 PM
All true. But the Democrats will never be in such an advantageous situation as today. There’s a big difference between the GOP voting on a tax cut not as big as those expiring today and new tax hikes.
New tax hikes will be much more difficult to pass after this deal. Notice the Democrats didn’t make a scratch in the Bush rates despite having Congress for Obama’s first 2 years. They won’t do it without GOP cover.
Chuck Schick on January 1, 2013 at 4:07 PM
There will be no noticeable difference if cantor, boehner, or ryan is speaker. Except maybe less crying. Maybe.
Timin203 on January 1, 2013 at 4:07 PM
Hot Air editors supported Plan B and they support this new “compromise” for the same reasons the Republican leadership supports it, they think it will provide short term political cover for the Republican party. It won’t. As I mentioned, the Democrats are trying to get the Republican party on record as supporting tax hikes so they can demagogue the hell out of it. There is no political cover to be had here and there is no serious budget reform coming out of the White House or the Senate, they want the Republicans to panic and cave.
The focus right now is on taxes but the real issue here is the debt ceiling being raised without spending reform for yet another year. If we give in on taxes for short term political cover, we lose leverage on spending cuts. Just because Obama and Reid control 2/3 of the government does not mean we should just give up our control of the purse strings of this nation. Eventually America will do what it always does when things look dire and start screaming at everybody to “do something”, and that will include Obama.
Daemonocracy on January 1, 2013 at 4:08 PM
Indeed.
and Enjoy! they grow so friggin’ fast!
Tim_CA on January 1, 2013 at 4:08 PM
Look if you limit my deductions at 250k and above and raise
the rate ……that’s a tax hike .
No one is talking about this and even Heritage does not have #’s
on this !
This is a small business killer and it will be a huge drag on real estate .
Issa just said he will NOT vote for this !
Yippi !
Lucano on January 1, 2013 at 4:09 PM
Obama wants the cliff. Anyone who doesn’t believe it is a fool. He hates the middle class and wants them all poor. They stand in his way and are the only barricade to his agenda for his otherwise unrestricted round II.
Schadenfreude on January 1, 2013 at 4:09 PM
Thanks!!!!!! What a life-changing experience.
Happy 2013.
Chuck Schick on January 1, 2013 at 4:10 PM
Only fools believe that the rich will pay a penny more, no matter what the number ends up being.
They always move the hike onto the price of the goods/services they produce/provide, or they move altogether. Lots of places in the world will love, not hate, them.
Schadenfreude on January 1, 2013 at 4:10 PM
Lonesome Dove, Gus McCrae. That is where our imbecilic artisos are taking us.
dogsoldier on January 1, 2013 at 4:11 PM
Yes because Obama is so stupid that he started negotiating at exactly what he actually wanted.
Hey morons in the STUPID PARTY. Obama is not in the Stupid Party. He actually always starts by demanding far more than he expects to get. He most likely got double what he thought he would.
Steveangell on January 1, 2013 at 4:11 PM
No, I think that most people are unhappy with this useless band-aid on a gangrenous wound solution.
There needs to be serious cuts to spending. No tax increases – in fact decrease taxes, but that will never happen so no increases.
Any “solution” that does not do some serious work to the above two items does not deal with the issues.
The Kristallnacht is the precedent setting of doing absolutely nothing, but telling the opposition that you have no boundaries and will eventually capitulate on every demand. Eventually, no demand or want will be too outrageous and who will be left to argue the point?
It has to stop somewhere. Why not here now?
kim roy on January 1, 2013 at 4:11 PM
Even Steve LaTourette is against it due to the sequester part. And yes this benefits the career ambitions of exactly two people in the House R caucus who have made it their mission to annoy Boehner. Unless Boehner has the power to fix the 2016 Presidential election then he isn’t getting their votes.
Illinidiva on January 1, 2013 at 4:11 PM
Go Cantor, stiff Boehner!
Bruno Strozek on January 1, 2013 at 4:11 PM
Every productive U.S. family is going to have to support a second (non-productive) family so that they can enjoy the necessities of life (75-inch flat screen TVs, five Obamaphones, $350 Air Jordans and SUVs with huge wheels and gangster white walls). Learn to live with it.
bw222 on January 1, 2013 at 4:12 PM
Daemonocracy on January 1, 2013 at 4:08 PM
As you always state, eloquently, the biggest hypocrites in the world, Obama and his, will always demagogue the R/Cs, no matter what. It’s so hard to realized what fools ‘run’ DC, especially from the right.
Schadenfreude on January 1, 2013 at 4:12 PM
I hope Boehner loses his speakership over this. It’s high time.
Schadenfreude on January 1, 2013 at 4:13 PM
It is two years to the next election. That is as long as you can expect to have in America. SO therefore if you are going to make a fight of it you start it now.
If a recession happens, markets tank, etc. the short term fallout will be on Republicans, however as the thing drags on and on the people will slowly turn on the President. After a while speeches can only carry you so far.
Also the backlash will be mostly contained in liberal states. The thing the GOP needs to be worried now is a backlash by the people and states that they represent that are sick of spending money we don’t have.
The worst that can happen is the GOP loses a few more seats in 2014 in the Senate and House, but will most likely keep the House. The best that can happen is Obama’s popularity will tank after six months of gridlock, the GOP will unify under a single banner at last, and 2014 will be a god year.
William Eaton on January 1, 2013 at 4:13 PM
Most of Y’all are funny.
You actually think that kicking the can down the road a little further has ANY potential outcome which could eventually lead to a fix.
That there is ANY fix that is possible given the political and societal realities of this world.
This whole thread (and indeed all of Hot Air lately ) reminds me of Macbeth……
……..it is a tale,
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing.
LegendHasIt on January 1, 2013 at 4:13 PM
And that’s why we’re broke.
Speaking of being stupid, the stage for socialism was set long before today….much of it due to Republicans “compromising” with Democrats. We’ve been a socialist country for some time now. It’s not a recent development.
xblade on January 1, 2013 at 4:14 PM
While you are doing research …
… study up on free capital markets and the role creative destruction provides in maintaining a healthy market and economy.
Then reconcile why there should be another DAY spent in this fantasyland created by Bernanke and exploited by the SCOAMF and the liberals where we keep moving farther and farther into a centrally planned economy which runs ENDLESS defecits.
If you can type it out into something resembling coherent sentences, we would all love to see that piece of work.
PolAgnostic on January 1, 2013 at 4:15 PM
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