Scott Brown looking strong in initial special-election polling

posted at 10:31 am on December 20, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Maybe Scott Brown will become the Manny Mota of politics — the guy who excels at pinch-hitting. After having just lost a statewide election to hold onto the seat he won in a January 2010 special election, Republicans want him back as their nominee if John Kerry gets his expected Secretary of State appointment.  And according to a new poll from Boston’s NPR affiliate WBUR, Brown leads all of the expected Democratic candidates, too (via Sarah Rumpf):

 WBUR poll of 500 registered voters finds U.S. Sen. Scott Brown is in a strong position should there be a special election to fill U.S. Sen. John Kerry’s seat.

Kerry is believed to be President Obama’s choice to replace Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

The poll, conducted by the MassINC Polling Group on Monday and Tuesday, finds voters view Brown favorably, despite the fact that in November they chose to elect Harvard law professor Elizabeth Warren in his stead. Fifty-eight percent of those polled say they have a favorable view of Brown, compared with 28 percent who view him unfavorably. Rounded off, 12 percent say they are undecided, and 1 percent say they have never heard of him. …

“We matched him up theoretically against (U.S. Reps.) Ed Markey, Mike Capuano, Steve Lynch and (former U.S. Rep.) Marty Meehan, and in each one of those cases, he led by between 17 and 19 points,” Koczela said.

Meehan, now the president of the University of Massachusetts Lowell, has already said he’s not interested in running.

The poll also pits him against his 2010 opponent, Martha Coakley, who doesn’t fare any better in a rematch.  Brown actually pulls a majority in a head-to-head against Coakley, winning 51/36.  The only other majority he gets comes against Steve Lynch, beating him by more than 2:1 at 51/24.

What about Deval Patrick?  I doubt that Patrick wants to trade the governorship for a seat in the US Senate midway through his second term, but even if he did, he might not get it.  Brown edges Patrick in this poll by seven points, 47/40, the closest any Democrat gets to Brown in this survey.  Patrick is the only Democrat to get to the 40% level. Coakley actually does better than anyone but Patrick.

Clearly, Brown remains popular in Massachusetts, and without Barack Obama on the ticket and in a special election, he has a good chance to make a triumphant return to the US Senate in mid-spring.  That may have Massachusetts Democrats dialing the 213 area code to look for a candidate.

Update: Trivia point of the day, from Philip Klein:


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Just in time to support a total gun ban.

GO SCOTT!

Bishop on December 20, 2012 at 10:36 AM

Maybe Scott Brown will become the Manny Mota of politics — the guy who excels at pinch-hitting.

“Pinch hitting for Pedro Borbon. Manny Mota…Mota…Mota.”

Sorry, every time I hear that name, I think of Ted Striker’s inner thoughts in Airplane!

Doughboy on December 20, 2012 at 10:37 AM

Who cares? The guys a squish.

DiscePati on December 20, 2012 at 10:38 AM

Who cares? The guys a squish.

DiscePati on December 20, 2012 at 10:38 AM

Would you rather have him or another Dem who’s a rubber stamp for 100% of Obama’s agenda?

Doughboy on December 20, 2012 at 10:42 AM

He sounds like that tanned dude in Florida.

tomas on December 20, 2012 at 10:43 AM

Brown IS very popular in MA, too bad he is not a democrat. We Do NOT send Republicans to DC. Don’t get your hopes up people. At best he would be a placeholder until 2014, then he would get sent packing again.

Mord on December 20, 2012 at 10:44 AM

Ben Affleck, Matt Damon, Mark Wahlberg, and Mike Barnicle should duke it out for the Dem nomination.

:)

Ladysmith CulchaVulcha on December 20, 2012 at 10:44 AM

Brown may be a squish but compared to the alternative Obamabot Democrat candidates who will vote 100% against conservative measures I’ll take the 60% er. Remember, this is blue MA where 100% of the state and federal elected pols are Democrat.

I foolishly moved to NH where with the exception of Kelly Ayotte the same holds true on the Fed level. D gov again too.

philw1776 on December 20, 2012 at 10:46 AM

This time he’ll have to get more support from the middle – seems like he’s burned most of the bridges to the right.

katiejane on December 20, 2012 at 10:47 AM

I guess something besides political office would be out of the question?

Dongemaharu on December 20, 2012 at 10:49 AM

Daes Mass deserve him?

docflash on December 20, 2012 at 10:49 AM

Why don’t black people become senators? Serious question.

tomas on December 20, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Go ahead Mr. Rino, run again as a fill in. If elected, maybe you will accumulate enough time to qualify for that federal pension, if you haven’t already, and will serve until another presidential election year when your constituents will probably throw you out on your ass again.

devolvingtowardsidiocracy on December 20, 2012 at 10:53 AM

@ tomas, simple….there just aren’t enough black people in America to elect blacks on a consistent basis in the various states in a statewide contest even if 95+% vote for a skin color and not competence.

devolvingtowardsidiocracy on December 20, 2012 at 10:57 AM

A better fit within the new and improved GOP. I wish him well with the politics within his evolved party.

Mr. Arrogant on December 20, 2012 at 10:58 AM

Why don’t black people become senators? Serious question.

tomas on December 20, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Because you dont just become a Senator, you have to run. Which means political connections, and donors. And while liberals love to preach tolerance, they dont need black senators to get 95% of the black vote. In other words, white liberals can still get the vote, and keep the power for themselves.

milcus on December 20, 2012 at 11:00 AM

So a man who lost to a FAR LEFT WING, COLLEGE LYING,
1/32 chow chow mix, Red Sox-Fenway Park illiterate,
is doing great in “initial polling”?

Well, there you have it America.

Massachusetts is Certifiable

ToddPA on December 20, 2012 at 11:02 AM

Doughboy on December 20, 2012 at 10:37 AM

My thoughts exactly. Back when Pedro Borbon Jr was pitching for the Braves, that was a great trivia question. Which Braves player’s father was mentioned in Airplane?

I still say a vote for Scott Brown, despite his squishiness, is a vote against Harry Reid as majority leader, should the GOP do well in 2014.

TedInATL on December 20, 2012 at 11:03 AM

Why don’t black people become senators? Serious question.

tomas on December 20, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Because David Axelrod can’t be everywhere!

:P

Ladysmith CulchaVulcha on December 20, 2012 at 11:06 AM

Another question comes to mind Should Brown win the special election, will he be the senior or junior senator from Mass? He will have more time in the senate than Fauxcahontas.

Not that it means anything, I guess.

TedInATL on December 20, 2012 at 11:06 AM

If Brown wins MA special election, he’ll eventually have run for Senate in 2010, 2012, 2013 & 2014

What does this mean? 2010 and 2012 elections? Is Klein living in the past?

Brown would need to run/win the special election in 2013, and then the regular election for when Kerry’s current 6-year term ends in 2014. That’s two runs, not four.

Not fun, but not impossible.

Recall also that Brown ended his campaign with money in the bank and Warren ended with $42 million in debt.

sultanp on December 20, 2012 at 11:07 AM

Why don’t black people become senators? Serious question.

tomas on December 20, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Simple. To become a Senator, you have to win statewide office. And I don’t know if you’ve seen the kind of black candidates the Democrat Party fields, but they tend to be the most radical, left-wing(frankly bordering on Communist), racist folks imaginable. They can get elected to House seats in safe districts, but they don’t have a prayer of making it to the Senate. Obama is the one recent exception, and he had the good fortune of a huge platform at the Democrat Convention to launch his bid along with corrupt judges leaking the divorce records of his opponents.

Ironically the GOP could end up electing a lot more minority Senators than the Dems if they make an effort to recruit quality candidates. They’ll have to be selective as far as what states they run them in(remember that Michael Steele lost in blue Maryland, whereas Rubio and Cruz were shoo-ins in red Florida and Texas), but it would be poetic to see a sizable number of Republican Latinos and blacks in the Senate while the Dems are stuck with one or two at most.

Doughboy on December 20, 2012 at 11:10 AM

Correction
I mis-typed above. Warren raised $42 million.

She was in debt after the campaign (likely not anymore after she sent out a fundraising plea to clear her accounts), but not by that much.

sultanp on December 20, 2012 at 11:14 AM

Snottie Brown – your 15 minutes of fame are over.

If Snot wins this – he’ll have to run as an outright liberal – rather than a “closet liberal” as Mass GOP’ers love to run as.

Nothing to see here. He was a lackluster Senator when he was one – and he will be again if he’s elected.

Actually – he COULD end up as one of the major leaders of the GOP after Conservatives get smart and abandon the party like the Whigs.

HondaV65 on December 20, 2012 at 11:14 AM

Brown’s better than dandy Bill Weld.

Robert_Paulson on December 20, 2012 at 11:23 AM

He’s a RINO and couldn’t beat a phony so called Indian last November. The GOP continues with it’s old strategy of going with losers. Kennedy is an idiot, but he fits the uninformed voters (useful idiots}fancy. How times have changed Massachusetts was once part of the cradle of democracy and today it’s the bastion of socialism.

savage24 on December 20, 2012 at 11:25 AM

Sorry guys, he is a douche, but he is better than any candidate on the Democrat side. It’s time we play to win. Massachusetts is not Tenessee.

celticdefender on December 20, 2012 at 11:25 AM

Would you rather have him or another Dem who’s a rubber stamp for 100% of Obama’s agenda?
Doughboy on December 20, 2012 at 10:42 AM

I’d rather have him, but forgive me if I’m not excited about his favorable polling. I suppose a dem-lite is better than a full-fledged socialist. Of course a small turd sandwich is better than a footlong too.

DiscePati on December 20, 2012 at 11:28 AM

If Brown wins MA special election, he’ll eventually have run for Senate in 2010, 2012, 2013 & 2014

What does this mean? 2010 and 2012 elections? Is Klein living in the past?

Brown would need to run/win the special election in 2013, and then the regular election for when Kerry’s current 6-year term ends in 2014. That’s two runs, not four.

sultanp on December 20, 2012 at 11:07 AM

The author is adding up the times Scott Brown has run for Senator in the past(2010 & 2012), plus potential future runs. Point being that if he wins the special election in 2013, 2014 would be Mr. Scott’s fourth time running over the 5 previous years, and his first time trying for a seat that he would hold for a normal six-year Senate term.

Ladysmith CulchaVulcha on December 20, 2012 at 11:33 AM

Why don’t black people become senators? Serious question.

Well, MA did have Edward Brooke, who was a Republican.

Another Drew on December 20, 2012 at 11:37 AM

Ladysmith CulchaVulcha:

You have cleared this up. Thanks. I seem to have read “he’ll eventually have to run for Senate in…” and not
just “he’ll eventually have run for Senate in…”.

As a Massachusetts voter I support Brown. He does not vote as I would want him to 100% of the time, but this is Massachusetts and *any* voting record that is not 100% with Harry Reid is better than nothing!

With Warren we *will* get a rubber stamp for Reid/Pelosi. At least Brown can cancel out her vote most of the time.

sultanp on December 20, 2012 at 11:43 AM

More Massachusetts Republicans! Yes! Those turn out so well.

LaughterJones on December 20, 2012 at 11:43 AM

Somehow I just can’t bring myself to care.

rrpjr on December 20, 2012 at 11:45 AM

a republican who wants to ban “assault weapons” just makes those who are sensible look extremist. the press will run wild w/ how the gun lovin ultra right wing wont listen to the sensible moderate scott brown. it hurts way more than it helps. screw that thought process of better to have a part time republican than a full time democrat. you are flat out wrong.

chasdal on December 20, 2012 at 11:49 AM

Whatever.

If he’s going to effectively *be* a Democrat, I can’t get excited about another ‘Republican’ who’s going to put ‘Republican’ fingerprints on actions that are contra-’Republican’ positions, not to mention those with questionable Constitutionality.

Leave that to the Dems, please.

Midas on December 20, 2012 at 11:55 AM

sultanp on December 20, 2012 at 11:43 AM

I like Scott Brown, too. And after such a bitter campaign, I would like to see him join Ms. Warren in the Senate as much for the endless slap-fights as the needed ‘R’ vote.

Ladysmith CulchaVulcha on December 20, 2012 at 11:55 AM

a republican who wants to ban “assault weapons” just makes those who are sensible look extremist. the press will run wild w/ how the gun lovin ultra right wing wont listen to the sensible moderate scott brown. it hurts way more than it helps. screw that thought process of better to have a part time republican than a full time democrat. you are flat out wrong.

chasdal on December 20, 2012 at 11:49 AM

^^^^^^THIS^^^^^

Not one thin dime to a RINO who panders to the left by supporting any kind of “gun ban”!!

If I wanted to support a democRAT, I’d pick one that at least has the balls to call himself one.

Solaratov on December 20, 2012 at 12:00 PM

Conservatives need to learn to hold to their principles, yet know when “half a loaf is better than no loaf”.

Brown may not fit as a conservative in the south, but he’s as conservative as we can get in MA. He may be a vote we need down the road for SCOTUS.

Tater Salad on December 20, 2012 at 12:00 PM

I want that actor dude to win it.
That way I can sleep at night knowing that everyone at HA will shut the frack up and stop bashing MA for electing a republican. I’m really tired of hearing it. We try up here in MA to at least tip the balance a bit towards the repub side buts it just not good enough. So here is a solution. Get up off you fat conservative asses, move to MA and save us from the likes of Brown. It’s that simple.

Frank Enstine on December 20, 2012 at 12:01 PM

It’s good as we can possibly get. However, I think even he knows that (if he wins the election[s]) come the next POTUS election in 2020, he may as well retire beforehand. That will likely be Joseph P. Kennedy III’s coronation.

cdog0613 on December 20, 2012 at 12:02 PM

Frank Enstine on December 20, 2012 at 12:01 PM

dont blame all of us cause y’all cant keep your politicians in line.

chasdal on December 20, 2012 at 12:07 PM

Brown leads all of the expected Democratic candidates

They must not have included Ben Affleck – he’s a shoo-in.

KS Rex on December 20, 2012 at 12:08 PM

Just another RINO.

Axion on December 20, 2012 at 12:14 PM

Who cares? The guys a squish.

DiscePati on December 20, 2012 at 10:38 AM
Would you rather have him or another Dem who’s a rubber stamp for 100% of Obama’s agenda?

Doughboy on December 20, 2012 at 10:42 AM

Better than any Democrat that will run… half a loaf is better than none at all…

Khun Joe on December 20, 2012 at 12:17 PM

When you can muster up any excitement for a card-carrying liberal like Brown – you know it is time to start a new party. Done with the lesser of two evils argument. It has proven to be a losing strategy.

Panther on December 20, 2012 at 12:19 PM

Republicans GOPe want him back as their nominee

Alabama Infidel on December 20, 2012 at 12:40 PM

Yawn. Or better yet the “i’m not impressed” look from the USA gymnast.

Fuquay Steve on December 20, 2012 at 12:46 PM

Bad news: Ted Kennedy Jr is being “urged” to run.

http://bostonherald.com/news_opinion/local_politics/2012/12/insiders_kennedy_jr_best_bet_vs_brown

raccoonradio on December 20, 2012 at 12:49 PM

Bad news: Ted Kennedy Jr is being “urged” to run.

http://bostonherald.com/news_opinion/local_politics/2012/12/insiders_kennedy_jr_best_bet_vs_brown

raccoonradio on December 20, 2012 at 12:49 PM

Hell no. I saw him making the TV rounds a couple weeks ago, supposedly for the U.N./Disability bill that subsequently died in the house. In spite of having lost a leg to cancer as a child, he was the worse spokesman Dems could have put out there. He seems an absolute dullard. It appears that the Kennedy Candlepower was snuffed after the last generation.

Ladysmith CulchaVulcha on December 20, 2012 at 12:57 PM

dont blame all of us cause y’all cant keep your politicians in line.

chasdal on December 20, 2012 at 12:07 PM

I’m not blaming anyone. I’m complaining about all the bashing of my state by all you folks. The conservatives here do their part and we get bashed. Why is MA so blue? Because all the conservatives left so my challenge to all you folks is get up off your asses and move to MA to make a difference. You want a conservative senator elected in MA then join me here and vote for one.

Frank Enstine on December 20, 2012 at 1:16 PM

dialing the 213 area code to look for a candidate.

You have been gone for a while Ed. It’s area codes 310, 424 and or possibly 323

multiuseless on December 20, 2012 at 1:23 PM

“looking good” may be apt description – substance is what is lacking. Nothing surprising there.

Fuquay Steve on December 20, 2012 at 1:38 PM

Why don’t black people become senators? Serious question.

tomas on December 20, 2012 at 10:52 AM

You don’t consider Obama black?

Schadenfreude on December 20, 2012 at 1:44 PM

He should claim to be Injun. They gave the harlot a pass, being her now.

Schadenfreude on December 20, 2012 at 1:46 PM

Scott Brown looking strong in initial special-election polling

LOLOLOLOLOOLOLLLLL.

He couldn’t even beat a Marxist fake injun.

I wouldn’t vote for him for dogcatcher.

PappyD61 on December 20, 2012 at 1:47 PM

dont blame all of us cause y’all cant keep your politicians in line.

chasdal on December 20, 2012 at 12:07 PM
I’m not blaming anyone. I’m complaining about all the bashing of my state by all you folks. The conservatives here do their part and we get bashed. Why is MA so blue? Because all the conservatives left so my challenge to all you folks is get up off your asses and move to MA to make a difference. You want a conservative senator elected in MA then join me here and vote for one.

Frank Enstine on December 20, 2012 at 1:16 PM

No thanks….Too damn cold for me. I live in North Carolina and we gave Obama his walking papers. He did not carry this state in November. I will give Mass credit for trying. Granted you cannot accomplish much with what you have to work with. But you keep trying. That is all you can do.

logicman_1998 on December 20, 2012 at 2:20 PM

Who cares? The guys a squish.

DiscePati on December 20, 2012 at 10:38 AM

You are a far bigger problem than Scott Brown is.

alchemist19 on December 20, 2012 at 2:21 PM

You don’t consider Obama black?

Schadenfreude on December 20, 2012 at 1:44 PM

Just enough to play the card.

Solaratov on December 20, 2012 at 2:25 PM

alchemist19 on December 20, 2012 at 2:21 PM

In five words Massachusetts is hateful and leftist . For the reason, Check the source of the gene poll in dominance there.

This is a difficult problem. Senator Brown was a moderate vote in the senate and forced the Obamacare run to go to a senatorial quirk for passage.

And wait till you see what Fauxahontas does once she gets going. Notice how little difference her playing Indian made to the rotten, self righteous bunch of morons up there. Wonder why many blacks love Alabama and Georgia? At least they admit they are doing wrong when they lynch you and they are friendlier till they do it. We were watching a movie or talking about one when this came up.

Oh, I have a black friend who will tell you that they are the biggest collection of racist creeps and hypocrites on this planet. He got jumped and nearly run over while out jogging. The crooked general population and corrupt government is tailor made for machine politics and theft.

If the did the film Sommersby up there they would have to change the plot to allow for the town government and several other players to rip off the protagonists in all the confusion.

IlikedAUH2O on December 20, 2012 at 2:58 PM

Take your gun ban and shove it up your ^&*$ Scott.

Kaptain Amerika on December 20, 2012 at 3:15 PM

So if Brown wins, we have the Democrats gaining only a net 1 seat in the Senate, and just barely winning the White House. Not much of a “mandate”.

crosspatch on December 20, 2012 at 3:16 PM

After the November 6 debacle Hot Air’s credibility on polls is shot. Scott Brown won’t beat anyone in Massachusetts.

InterestedObserver on December 20, 2012 at 3:31 PM

btw word has come that Scott’s father has died up in Newburyport, MA.
Condolences… (from Howie Carr/WRKO)

raccoonradio on December 20, 2012 at 3:44 PM

Take your gun ban and shove it up your ^&*$ Scott.

Kaptain Amerika on December 20, 2012 at 3:15 PM

Amen brother.

hawkdriver on December 20, 2012 at 8:27 PM

…he lost to the squaw for gawd’s sake!

KOOLAID2 on December 20, 2012 at 10:50 PM