Oh my: Weekly jobless claims rise to 439K

posted at 9:41 am on November 15, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Usually, people give too much weight to small changes in the weekly jobless claims rate.  Since the spring of 2011, we have seen a range of 360K-380K claims per week, with only occasional outliers, usually within 2-3% of the range.  The individual week number is somewhat less meaningful as an indicator than the range, and the trend.

Most of the above doesn’t apply to today’s report, however, as the adjusted number of jobless claims leaped upward by 78,000 to hit 439,000 — the highest level in almost two years:

In the week ending November 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 439,000, an increase of 78,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 361,000. The 4-week moving average was 383,750, an increase of 11,750 from the previous week’s revised average of 372,000.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.6 percent for the week ending November 3, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week’s revised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending November 3 was 3,334,000, an increase of 171,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 3,163,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,254,500, an increase of 17,750 from the preceding week’s revised average of 3,236,750.

If you’re wondering whether seasonal adjustments might have impacted the report, think again.  The seasonal adjustments at this time of year work in the opposite direction; the unadjusted number went up by six figures — 104,548.  Also unadjusted, this week had 103,000 more claims than the similar week last year, an increase of almost a third.

Don’t blame Sandy for this, either, at least not entirely [see update].  The states impacted most by the hurricane didn’t make it onto the list of biggest increases, save for New Jersey and Connecticut — but claims there only jumped up by 5,675 and 1,783, respectively and unadjusted.  Clearly, these two states aren’t the biggest cause for a jump of 104,000 claims.  Both Pennsylvania (7,766) and Ohio (6,450) lost more jobs, thanks to layoffs in manufacturing and other industries.

That didn’t stop the Department of Labor from claiming that the increase came from Hurricane Sandy, though:

Super storm Sandy drove U.S. weekly jobless claims up to 439,000, while consumer prices rose slightly last month as higher rents and costlier food offset cheaper gas.

Sandy drove the number of people seeking unemployment benefits up to a seasonally adjusted 439,000 last week, the highest level in 18 months.

The Labor Department said applications increased by 78,000 because a large number of applications were filed in states damaged by the storm. People can claim unemployment benefits if their workplaces close and they don’t get paid.

If that’s true, their own report doesn’t reflect it.  The two most impacted states from Sandy contributed less than 8% of the overall unadjusted increase, which is shown in the table of their own press release.  There were more new claims in Pennsylvania alone than in New Jersey and Connecticut combined.  New York actually had a decrease in claims (-2,241) due to the storm, thanks to infrastructure that couldn’t rebound in time to process them — but expect those to show up next week.

This could be an anomaly, as any single data point in this series might be.  However, it doesn’t bode well for holiday hiring that we had this large bump at the beginning of November, and it might signal a very quiet retail period ahead.

Update: Actually, those numbers at the end are for the previous week’s report (ending 11/3), so Sandy may well be the driver this week.  We’ll know more in next week’s report.  Do note, though, that the hurricane hit the week before that.

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Comment pages: 1 2

“Without a job at least the poor will have lots of time for sex so it would be wise for us to provide contraception so they don’t increase their voting block.”

No problem there. Felons can’t vote.

Yet.

ncjetsfan on November 15, 2012 at 10:39 AM

They Lie!!!

rgranger on November 15, 2012 at 10:39 AM

Hispanic jobless rate up to 28%.

How’s that Hope and Change feelin’ for you Hispanics who pulled the lever for Bark, good and hard and wonderful? I hope so.

Bishop on November 15, 2012 at 10:42 AM

I’d be curious to know how many of those 439K volunteered for layoff so they could collect freebies from Obozo.

I had that option this week from SAIC where I’ve been for 14 years. Accept a 5.6% pay cut to compensate for ObamaCare costs, or accept a layoff and collect those freebies. I chose the former, but I know a lot of people who opted for the easy life.

stacman on November 15, 2012 at 10:44 AM

That was an awesome cartoon. If Ramirez sold T-shirts, I’d get one for everyone I know for Christmas.

Laura in Maryland on November 15, 2012 at 10:19 AM

Yeppers!

Make sure that you sign the new petition:

New Petition: Honour Courageous Woman of Colour, Fauxcahontas, on Sitting Bull Day

http://predicthistunpredictpast.blogspot.com/2012/11/new-petition-honour-courageous-woman-of.html

M2RB: Cher

lol

Resist We Much on November 15, 2012 at 10:44 AM

I.dont.care.

sheikh of thornton on November 15, 2012 at 10:45 AM

With all that free time on your hands, you’re gonna need those Obamaphones.

Ukiah on November 15, 2012 at 10:46 AM

Congratulations to the zombies that voted for Obama:

Rising unemployment rates are just the beginning!

The next terrorist attack, you own it.

Can’t get a job after graduation, you own it.

Sky rocketing energy prices due to Obama’s EPA shutting down
the energy producing states, you own it.

A nuclear Iran, you own it.

Bowing to the Soviet Union, you own it.

Another severe recession, possible depression, you own it.

A volatile border with Mexico, you own it.

Millions of amnesty hoarders taking your job, you own it.

Trouble getting good health care, you own it.

Higher health insurance costs and health care costs, you own it.

No budget, you own it.

Our allies mistrust, you own it.

Another trillion of debt, every year, you own it.

More Benghazi situations, you own it.

No one willing to join the military, you own it.

Trouble getting a loan to buy a home, you own it.

More dependency on food stamps, you own it.

Trouble finding good employment, you own it.

Several part time jobs instead of a good job, you own it.

A World Government, you own it.

The UN governing the United States instead of ourselves, you own it.

A Senate that will not bring any legislation to the table
even if it is “Dead on Arrival”, you own it.

China controlling our world trade trampling all over us, you own it.

Loss of our freedoms as we have known it in the past, you own it.

A dictatorship instead of a democracy that follows the Constitution, you own it.

Less take home pay and higher living costs, you own it.

Driving a car that looks like a toy, you own it.

More government corruption and lies, you own it.

More toleration of extreme and fanatical Jihadists, you own it.

Terrorist attacks called work place incidents, you own it.

Denny’s 5% Obamacare surcharge, you own it.

Your revenge instead of love of country, you own it.

President George Bush is out of it now, and there is not another good man for you to vilify and lie about.

In a way I am relieved that another good man will not be blamed when it was
impossible to clean up this mess you voted for. Don’t have a good day.

redguy on November 15, 2012 at 10:48 AM

STFU, f@#$tard. You wouldn’t recognize reality if it crapped on your head and hit you with a 2×4. Businesses are doing what they have to do to survive in the new climate created by your moronic mindset. Everyone’s been saying this is the inevitable outcome of leftist policies – quit being surprised when it happens – as it always has historically.

Sick to death of you f@#$ing morons.

Midas on November 15, 2012 at 10:19 AM

Can I get an AMEN!!!

So sick of the dumpphucks like HotAirLibtard, cornholedbubba, tommypunk, dumberthandrywall and the rest of their ilk in here spewing their nonsense. They have zero clue about business, economics or the world of hurt heading their way. I’d call them useful idiots…but they aren’t even useful.

HumpBot Salvation on November 15, 2012 at 10:50 AM

Ohio and PA hardest hit

You got your guy….. no whining

cmsinaz on November 15, 2012 at 10:51 AM

The POM (Protect Obama Media) can now release the true stats about the economy, unemployment levels, and other bad new details that might have hurt their Boy Wonder Blunder had they been reported honestly a few weeks ago.

(Oh noes, he said “Boy”!)

profitsbeard on November 15, 2012 at 10:51 AM

redguy on November 15, 2012 at 10:48 AM

Give Obama a break.
He inherited all of that.
The guy in office for the last four years was a moron.

justltl on November 15, 2012 at 10:52 AM

With any luck, each and every one of those people were idiots that voted for Obama.

Welcome to the double dip recession.

milcus on November 15, 2012 at 10:53 AM

While I feel for our conservative freinds in CA, NY, IL,, OH, MI,…… (I didn’tknow where to stop), if those states lose every job they have I really don’t feel sorry for them.

Tater Salad on November 15, 2012 at 10:53 AM

Hopefully this report is just a blip due to the storm. I wouldn’t bet on it though. I get the sense from all that’s going on that we are in for a wild ride down the rabbit hole.

dogsoldier on November 15, 2012 at 10:53 AM

Raising taxes on the rich will solve all of this.

Tater Salad on November 15, 2012 at 10:55 AM

Color me shocked that after the pre-election numbers we all knew were bull patties, the numbers are now higher. Wow. Couldn’t have possibly seen THAT coming. /sarc

Murf76 on November 15, 2012 at 10:56 AM

48 more months. 48 more “reasons”. Month #1 – Sandy.

We’re about to see how creative and persuasive the media can actually be month after month after month.

salem on November 15, 2012 at 11:02 AM

redguy on November 15, 2012 at 10:48 AM

Well done.
Copied, saved, and heaven help the first FB libbie to attempt to throw their BS my way !!
(they’ve been pretty quiet .. I’m just letting them start to feel the pain, so the first complaint .. LOOOOOOKOUT !)

pambi on November 15, 2012 at 11:05 AM

While I feel for our conservative freinds in CA, NY, IL,, OH, MI,…… (I didn’tknow where to stop), if those states lose every job they have I really don’t feel sorry for them.

Tater Salad on November 15, 2012 at 10:53 AM

The blue state collapse plan needs to go forward……
All good conservatives – run, flee for your families and fortunes.
A red state firewall must be built – an uncivil war has been started by Obama
and it is time to fight.

Hire only conservatives – you can figure out how to tell if they are conservatives…..

Build, plant and thrive in red state ground…..

redguy on November 15, 2012 at 11:08 AM

mnjg on November 15, 2012 at 10:25 AM

Dude, you’re trying to reason with an idiot like Corn Fed Bubba?

You might as well try to teach your dog to speak Mandarin Chinese, you’d have better results.

UltimateBob on November 15, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Sandy is therefore a raaaaaacist storm. Superduper storms should only occur during a republican admin.

racquetballer on November 15, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Give Obama a break.
He inherited all of that.
The guy in office for the last four years was a moron.

justltl on November 15, 2012 at 10:52 AM

heh, heh……

redguy on November 15, 2012 at 11:10 AM

Probably all those patriotic rich “job creators” who are laying off workers as part of their Obamacare temper tantrum.

cornfedbubba on November 15, 2012 at 9:46 AM

Most job creators aren’t in the position they’re in because they’re prone to short-sighted temper tantrums. So those few bad apples (if they exist) should be overwhelmed by the vast majority of businesses who are going to use their prowess to evaluate the state of things and adjust payroll accordingly. If business owners see sunshine and roses on the horizon, they should be eager to be hiring folks. If the trend is in the other direction, though, then maybe, just maybe, things aren’t so hunky dory, after all.

On the other hand, even if a substantial number of job creators are prone to such temper tantrums, motive won’t really matter…jobs will start disappearing.

BlueCollarAstronaut on November 15, 2012 at 11:13 AM

Raising taxes on the rich will solve all of this.

Tater Salad on November 15, 2012 at 10:55 AM

For about 12 minutes. We have a math problem here.

Happy Nomad on November 15, 2012 at 11:13 AM

BlueCollarAstronaut on November 15, 2012 at 11:13 AM

I like the approach of that small business owner who is tacking on an Obamacare surcharge on his invoices. I think every business should do that. Customers should see just how expensive “free” healthcare actually has become. The makers will be appalled and might be inclined to be less tolerant of the moochers.

Happy Nomad on November 15, 2012 at 11:16 AM

Weekly jobless claims rise to 439K

Welcome to the new normal.

The Obamabots really don’t have a clue what’s coming.

It’s scary how deluded they are.

It really is.

Bruno Strozek on November 15, 2012 at 11:17 AM

Actually, a lot of those job losses are in Ohio and PA. Not Sandy related. Obama voters own it – they got what they asked for.

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/11/15/Surprise-Jobless-Claims-Up-Over-75000

VioletTiger on November 15, 2012 at 11:18 AM

It’s scary how deluded they are.

It really is.

Bruno Strozek on November 15, 2012 at 11:17 AM

They’ll only wake up when that government check doesn’t arrive for a couple months, they’ve missed a few meals, they’ve run out of contraception, and their Obamaphone doesn’t work. They won’t understand the reasons behind their sudden destitution but they’ll realize that preying on and looting the revenue-generating part of society probably wasn’t the best of ideas.

Unfortunately, we’ll all be screwed by that point and the stupid greedy moochers will have destroyed us all.

Happy Nomad on November 15, 2012 at 11:21 AM

You aren’t really surprised are you….. didn’t you hear the election is over, the numbers no longer need to be fudged…..

nonstopca on November 15, 2012 at 11:21 AM

Both Pennsylvania (7,766) and Ohio (6,450) lost more jobs, thanks to layoffs in manufacturing and other industries.

Dear “whoever in PA cancelled out my vote,”

I hope you’re one of the 7,766.

Sincerely,

bigmacdaddy

bigmacdaddy on November 15, 2012 at 11:22 AM

I blame Bush for these numbers. Apparently a majority in this country do as well, so I might as well join in. Nothing says intelligence like mindlessly parroting what other ignorant and uninformed people say.

Physics Geek on November 15, 2012 at 11:30 AM

redguy on November 15, 2012 at 10:48 AM

and everybody knows they won’t own it.

Wagthatdog on November 15, 2012 at 11:32 AM

If Sandy’s what got Obummer reelected (as some say), then yeah these jobless claims are all Sandy’s fault.

We’ve got 4 more years now of blaming the “Sandy Economy” ahead. I hope they’re smart enough to extend the “Sandy Tax Cuts”.

I can’t wait to read the Sandy memoirs LOL.

Oxymoron on November 15, 2012 at 11:39 AM

I like the approach of that small business owner who is tacking on an Obamacare surcharge on his invoices. I think every business should do that. Customers should see just how expensive “free” healthcare actually has become. The makers will be appalled and might be inclined to be less tolerant of the moochers.

Happy Nomad on November 15, 2012 at 11:16 AM

I think that’s a good approach, too. I think it’s helpful to point out the consequences and costs of all these “free” things, and it’s helpful to remind people that businesses can’t just magically absorb these extra burdens. When the cost of business increases, then the employee and/or the consumer will feel the brunt of that if the business is to continue, so it might help to explain to those parties exactly what’s going on.

I don’t know of any major retailer that “absorbs” the cost of sales tax by including it in the advertised sales price, so it makes sense that other government-induced compliance expenses be brought to the forefront as well…though I’m not quite sure how that works in a practical sense.

BlueCollarAstronaut on November 15, 2012 at 11:42 AM

Common sense dictates, this has more to do with all the lay offs due to the re-election of Benedict Obama! More headlines every day, announce the lay offs or the closure of co’s due to the policies instituted by the Marxist Messiah! Get ready for the Double Dip recession every body has said was coming. It’s Here…

http://www.paratisiusa.blogspot.com

God Bless America!

paratisi on November 15, 2012 at 11:49 AM

Probably all those patriotic rich “job creators” who are laying off workers as part of their Obamacare temper tantrum.

cornfedbubba on November 15, 2012 at 9:46 AM

Have you ever run a business??

I have – several – it is not easy.
The government is making it almost impossible to actually create profits.
They think they own the profits….

I have had to lay-off workers to just stay in business….
I went years without paychecks.
I had to live in my office off and on for months.
Some years I grossed over $1,000,000 per year….
I more I grossed – the more I lost….
I am semi-retired and make more money being on my own.
No overhead – no employees – but it took the years
to build up a reputation and a business to get where I am.
I am glad I went through that. I understand more than most
what is going on.

Many companies will be shut down over the next 4 years.
The owners see Obama’s hand scribbling on the wall….
This is Obama’s end game – destroy and discredit capitalism.
I don’t know where Obama thinks he will get his “taxes” from???
Does Obama plan on joining the caliphate??
I thought Obama hated empire builders?
Isn’t that the goal of the Islamist’s?
Why is an Islamic empire legimate and a capitalist one is not?

Get some answers to these questions and perhaps we will know our fates.
Don’t ask Obama – he never answers questions.

redguy on November 15, 2012 at 11:50 AM

and everybody knows they won’t own it.

Wagthatdog on November 15, 2012 at 11:32 AM

They won’t – but we will shove it in their faces like a flamming bag of dog poop……

redguy on November 15, 2012 at 11:53 AM

FIFO method of economic inventory-Fudge In, Fudge Out. Before the election there was some need for job figure “trickeration”-some of the figures withheld to depress pre-election figures can now be used (now that it doesn’t matter)in inflate post election figures.

These figures in and of themselves are meaningless. What will count (and what I expect to see) is a steady decline in GDP growth and a slow, then sharp rise in unemployment (and crime) as Obamacare, higher taxes, oppressive regulation and entrepreneurship discrimination kick in.Hello depression and the only good news is that the ones who voted for Obama will suffer the most!

MaiDee on November 15, 2012 at 12:03 PM

Unexpectedly of course!

rjoco1 on November 15, 2012 at 12:15 PM

Probably all those patriotic rich “job creators” who are laying off workers as part of their Obamacare temper tantrum.

cornfedbubba on November 15, 2012 at 9:46 AM

People who want to operate profitable businesses? Evil, of course.

Poverty rate spikes, again

4 million more in poverty than Congress thought, and it’s only beginning.

“We’re seeing a very slow recovery, with increases in poverty among workers due to more new jobs which are low-wage,” Timothy Smeeding, a University of Wisconsin-Madison economist who specializes in poverty, told The Associated Press.

Wait’ll ObamaCare hits these people. They’ll still be on Medicare as before, but be making less money —-> more on welfare.

Obamaville will be open under the same management for at least another 4 years.

Chuck Schick on November 15, 2012 at 12:43 PM

Obama insists we’re moving in the right direction.

And I won’t argue with him. I know which direction he considers the right one, so according to his plans, it’s true.

The Rogue Tomato on November 15, 2012 at 12:57 PM

I like the approach of that small business owner who is tacking on an Obamacare surcharge on his invoices. I think every business should do that. Customers should see just how expensive “free” healthcare actually has become. The makers will be appalled and might be inclined to be less tolerant of the moochers.

Happy Nomad on November 15, 2012 at 11:16 AM

And why shouldn’t he? San Francisco mandated that restaurant owners provide affordable healthcare for their waitstaff and we were charged a “health surcharge” at many restaurants in order to pay for it. I too think it’s a grand idea and that all small business owners should follow suit. Oh, but when private entities do what the City of San Francisco mandated, just wait and see how fast they’ll start whining about how it’s unfair and how we’re all big evil meanies.

Carolina21 on November 15, 2012 at 1:07 PM

They’ll only wake up when that government check doesn’t arrive for a couple months, they’ve missed a few meals, they’ve run out of contraception, and their Obamaphone doesn’t work. They won’t understand the reasons behind their sudden destitution but they’ll realize that preying on and looting the revenue-generating part of society probably wasn’t the best of ideas.

Unfortunately, we’ll all be screwed by that point and the stupid greedy moochers will have destroyed us all.

Happy Nomad on November 15, 2012 at 11:21 AM

You can’t fix stupid. They will riot in the streets and burn their cribs down around their ears.

chemman on November 15, 2012 at 1:15 PM

Now, O can coast four more years on “I was fixing this economy until Sandy came along.”

Axeman on November 15, 2012 at 1:40 PM

redguy on November 15, 2012 at 10:48 AM

Can I post this on my fb?
/kidding but not really.

Jackalope on November 15, 2012 at 4:39 PM

Name one Nation on this planet that is led by an honest, uncorrupted leader.

Is there one?

tom daschle concerned on November 15, 2012 at 10:12 AM

I vote for Bibi!

IowaWoman on November 15, 2012 at 5:56 PM

You aren’t really surprised are you….. didn’t you hear the election is over, the numbers no longer need to be fudged…..

nonstopca on November 15, 2012 at 11:21 AM

…in the next year…it will be interesting to see how the MSM handles those reports!

KOOLAID2 on November 15, 2012 at 10:54 PM

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