Haley Barbour: The hurricane saved Obama’s presidency

posted at 4:29 pm on November 8, 2012 by Allahpundit

I’m going to call BS, partly out of conviction and partly because I just refuse to believe it. I can accept any other conclusion about the election, no matter how grim, but I can’t bear the mental load of thinking that the fate of entitlement reform might have turned on Obama putting on a natty bomber jacket with “President” embroidered on it and standing around in front of storm debris looking concerned. This is the only time you’ll ever see me stick up for low-information voters. They can’t be this dumb.

But what if they are?

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 70% made up their minds about how to vote more than a month ago, while another 18% decided within the last month.

But five percent (5%) decided within the last week and three percent (3%) within the last few days. Combined with the four percent (4%) who reached a final decision at the very last minute, this means 12% of voters decided whom to vote for in the last seven days of the race.

That’s more or less in line with the national exit poll, which found that nine percent made up their minds in “the last few days.” Doesn’t prove that the hurricane was a factor, but if you look at the RCP national polling average, you do see Romney’s lead start to evaporate on October 30 — one day after Sandy made landfall in New Jersey.

Barbour’s point is that Sandy “broke Romney’s momentum,” which might but doesn’t necessarily mean that late deciders were dazzled by Obama’s well-practiced Look of Concerned Determination. It could just mean that the storm distracted them long enough from their “Obama or Romney?” calculus that it turned into more of a “do I trust Obama as president?” referendum on O. He didn’t have any major screw-ups during the storm or afterward — well, actually, he did, but most of the media conveniently refuses to cover them — so maybe that was enough for fencesitters. If you’re lukewarm about both candidates and the incumbent seems like he’s doing okay in a big crisis, maybe you’re not so motivated to replace him. Or, as John Sexton argues in a nice post at Breitbart, maybe the storm-related photo ops helped to reinforce Obama’s advantage on the “who cares more about people like you?” question. In the exit poll, among people who said that was the most important value to them in a leader, Obama led Romney on that metric … by 63 points.

Then again, we’re not really asking here whether O benefited from his handling of the storm. We’re asking whether any benefit he received was decisive. I’m not convinced. Granted, this result is mind-boggling in the amount of stupidity it suggests:

But the depressing fact is that O was apparently leading comfortably before the storm too:

Obviously he does better among very late deciders, but a four-point lead throughout September and October — which included the Mile High Massacre at the first debate and the debacle in Benghazi — isn’t insignificant. Sandy might also have cost him votes by denying him bigger margins in blue states affected by the storm, which wouldn’t change the electoral math but would have knocked O’s popular vote total down by hundreds of thousands of votes potentially. My instinct tells me that anyone who voted for Obama because they were impressed by the perfunctory pageantry of presidential storm management during the last week was someone who was looking for reasons to vote for him anyway. If four years of economic catatonia and unsustainable deficit spending weren’t enough to dissuade them months ago, then the bomber jacket routine was just icing on the cake.

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maybe, but I still say “free stuff:.

rob verdi on November 8, 2012 at 4:30 PM

Haley Barbour: The hurricane saved Obama’s presidency

Straight up I’m calling bullshit on that… Zippy accused me of being into conspiracy theories earlier today, so now I oblige him.

SWalker on November 8, 2012 at 4:31 PM

This is the only time you’ll ever see me stick up for low-information voters. They can’t be this dumb.

Yes, yes they are.

squint on November 8, 2012 at 4:32 PM

The question is would a majority of those 12% late deciders voted for Romney to begin with? Those type of low information creatures tend to be more democrats than Republicans… If they made up their mind to vote for Obama because of his hurricance photo-op then I doubt that they had any intention to vote for Romney to begin with and even without the hurricane and photo op…

mnjg on November 8, 2012 at 4:33 PM

No it was Romney’s pathetic campaign

He didnt win MI, MA or NH. Lost ALL 3 of his home states

Flapjackmaka on November 8, 2012 at 4:34 PM

Bomber Jacket/Big Chair 2016!

tom daschle concerned on November 8, 2012 at 4:34 PM

Yep. Bull Scheist

Romney’s numbers were never as solid as projected, Obama was far stronger, and there were few last minute break aways for either candidate.

This election was lost in September.

portlandon on November 8, 2012 at 4:35 PM

Umm no. Like someone famous once intoned, “You just can’t beat Santa Claus.”

rightside on November 8, 2012 at 4:36 PM

I actually hope it was the hurricane that shifted the election. It makes the loss less ominous for the future of the GOP.

Mark1971 on November 8, 2012 at 4:37 PM

Still think Mark Steyn had it right when he said that Obama was “all jacket, no bomber.”

pookysgirl on November 8, 2012 at 4:37 PM

Folks we lost the elections because at least 3 millions of our voters decided to stay home… If we got the McCain voters plus few hundred thousands more we would have won the elections… The question is why did they stay home?… Obama lost 9 millions of his voters from 2008… We should have won the elections if we just able to match McCain voters plus few hundred thousands more…

mnjg on November 8, 2012 at 4:37 PM

Free apartment, free obamaphone, free internets, free food, free healthcare, free car, free insurance, need I go on?

Why work?

rightside on November 8, 2012 at 4:38 PM

Well, if we can blame this loss on a damn hurricane, then I guess we can also blame Chris Christie.

TarheelBen on November 8, 2012 at 4:38 PM

I doubt this, but if so, it isn’t the hurricane but the fawning treatment Obama got for doing basically nothing about the hurricane.

alwaysfiredup on November 8, 2012 at 4:38 PM

Barbour is an idiot of the old guard. He should retire in Florida.

Mr. Arrogant on November 8, 2012 at 4:39 PM

Obama won because Cartman stole the ballots. :D

http://www.southparkstudios.com/full-episodes/s16e14-obama-wins

sram on November 8, 2012 at 4:39 PM

I’m a Mittbot but the hurricane did not cause this loss.

It’s a matter of demographics that republicans refused to aknowledge

and running a campaign that said entitlements might be curtailed.

I voted for Mitt and the country but i personally am better off financially under Obama.

i do worry about the country’s future for my kids and grand kids.

gerrym51 on November 8, 2012 at 4:40 PM

The question is why did they stay home?…

mnjg on November 8, 2012 at 4:37 PM

Because they’re sick of moderate Republican’s?

Mr. Arrogant on November 8, 2012 at 4:40 PM

My instinct tells me that anyone who voted for Obama because they were impressed by the perfunctory pageantry of presidential storm management during the last week was someone who was looking for reasons to vote for him anyway.

That’s my gut feeling as well. I think there were enough voters out there who didn’t want to fire the first (half)black President even though they knew he was doing a sh-tty job. His supposedly magnificent handling of the Sandy aftermath gave them the out they were looking for. It’s ironic in that we all expected late deciders to break for the challenger, but Sandy may have caused the reverse outcome.

And remember, we’re talking about a close election here despite the electorate college disparity. Romney only needed FL, OH, VA and either CO or WI to win this election and he lost all 5 of those by a total of half a million votes.

Doughboy on November 8, 2012 at 4:40 PM

might have turned on Obama putting on a natty bomber jacket with “President” embroidered on it

It said “Commander in Chief”.

Schadenfreude on November 8, 2012 at 4:40 PM

right…and i guess that sunk all those Senate candidates too…someone tell Haley that the Rs LOST seats in the senate…let me repeat we LOST seats in the Senate

maybe Haley is part of the problem…blaming the weather and all.

regardless, we now have a preezy who’s not so good at HS math, and who seems to like Revenge facing this:

Make no mistake; we are caught between three cliffs at present. Each of them presents a systemic challenge. The first is Greece because with a total of $1.5 trillion in debts a default would be cataclysmic. The next abyss is labeled “Spain” because they will be forced to the wall and the total price tag will amount to around $400-500 billion in my estimation. This includes bank debt guaranteed by the nation, their sovereign debt plus the regional debt that has been guaranteed by the nation. The actual debt to GDP ratio for Spain is about 245% and not the 90% number concocted by the EU to give the illusion of a prettier party dress. So much for all of the pledged money in the ESM fund; all gone and thanks for all the fish. Finally we have the “Fiscal Cliff” in the United States where some combination of entitlement’s reduction and new taxes will get implemented hopefully. These three and quite clear “Cliffs” should be bringing you back to Grant’s Rules 1-10: “Preservation of Capital” because if anything goes amiss on any of these dangerous walks then systemic shock could develop and your portfolios could take massive losses. Coupling the “Cliffs” with a stark recession in Europe and its contagion, a significant slow-down in China, declining earnings in America and you can begin to see the seriousness of our economic and markets position now; a lot of risk!

greece, spain, and the US

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-08/we-arent-kansas-anymore

but, a lot of people got free healthcare…

r keller on November 8, 2012 at 4:40 PM

Even if this is true, so the f@#$ what?

I’m so f@#$ing pissed I don’t even know how I feel or think about any of this crap anymore.

I see the GOP leaping to all the wrong conclusions, accusing all the wrong people (not themselves, of course), etc.

And in the meantime we get to suffer through another 4 years of these assclowns grinning at us while they gleefully continue destroying everything around us, cheered on by further assclowns aren’t intelligent enough to know *their* future is being f@#$ed over as well.

Midas on November 8, 2012 at 4:40 PM

Again you got to thank Chris Christie. I AM convinced that the storm pushed 3%-4% in to Obama’s corner. Gallup day before storm Romney +6. 3 days after Romney +1. Rassmussen before storm Romney was at 50% and up 3%-4%. After storm he never led by more then 1% and didn’t reach 50%.

The evidence is overwhelming.. Never underestimate the stupidity of the American electorate.

Put another way…No one has ever lost any money betting on the stupidity of Americans.

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 8, 2012 at 4:41 PM

Romney was down in every Ohio poll even before the storm hit.

So, no.

tkyang99 on November 8, 2012 at 4:41 PM

Folks we lost the elections because at least 3 millions of our voters decided to stay home… If we got the McCain voters plus few hundred thousands more we would have won the elections… The question is why did they stay home?… Obama lost 9 millions of his voters from 2008… We should have won the elections if we just able to match McCain voters plus few hundred thousands more…

mnjg on November 8, 2012 at 4:37 PM

Maybe 3 million voters had already “Gone Galt” and unplugged and decided to burrow in and hunker down?

Its puzzling. Thats for sure.

portlandon on November 8, 2012 at 4:41 PM

A hurricane so magnificent in size, improbable in timing, and unexplainable in political effect cannot be the product of chance; it must be the work of God.

If this is so, perhaps God is playing the long game.

Nessuno on November 8, 2012 at 4:41 PM

Given the last numbers Obama would have won by 5, he’ll win by 2. The numbers aren’t right.

jarodea on November 8, 2012 at 4:42 PM

Oh bulls–t.

The storm didn’t hit any states but blue states having NIL effect on Romney.

Obama won because that’s what a majority of America’s voters wanted. In fact, if not for the hurricane, Obama would have come much closer to an actual mandate.

So goes the Nation — So goes us all.

America’s toast.

Period. End of story.

FlatFoot on November 8, 2012 at 4:42 PM

“Obama cares about people like me” is like “a pedophile cares for children”. He truly and sincerely does.

Archivarix on November 8, 2012 at 4:43 PM

maybe, but I still say “free stuff:.

rob verdi on November 8, 2012 at 4:30 PM

America is a social democracy in which the candidate offering to expand the welfare state while engaging in class warfare will have a significant advantage.

joey24007 on November 8, 2012 at 4:43 PM

Barbour is an idiot of the old guard. He should retire in Florida.

Mr. Arrogant on November 8, 2012 at 4:39 PM

No way. The GOP would drag him out and run him for office there.

portlandon on November 8, 2012 at 4:43 PM

gerrym51 on November 8, 2012 at 4:40 PM

How are you better off financially under Obama? Are you on Welfare/SSI???

What happens when China decides to cash out our debt? And the US defaults? Wild spread riots, food shortages… etc.

How much longer do you think the US can spend at this rate?

Or are you one of those that think that money grows on trees?

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 8, 2012 at 4:43 PM

Free apartment, free obamaphone, free internets, free food, free healthcare, free car, free insurance, need I go on?

Why work?

rightside on November 8, 2012 at 4:38 PM

Yet Obama lost 9 millions of his voters from 2008… The biggest shock is that Romney got less votes than McCain… This was an impossible thing to expect and that is why our elections experts (Rove, Barone) predicted a Romney landslide because they expected Romney to get more votes than McCain and they expected Obama to lose 9 to 10 millions more votes which he did… however they never expected Romney to get less votes than McCain, not in this environment… Was it the “Mormon” thing that caused this?…

mnjg on November 8, 2012 at 4:44 PM

Americans don’t want republicans anymore. We have a one party system. Pretty soon speaking out will be crushed.

tomas on November 8, 2012 at 4:44 PM

Ace has some numbers showing Sandy hurt Romney with indies. It was last minute and it kicked him in the nuts! He lost half the indies going for him thanks to President Bomberjacket’s quick and speedy jump into Chris Christie’s awaiting arms.

Mr. Mike on November 8, 2012 at 4:44 PM

This is the only time you’ll ever see me stick up for low-information voters. They can’t be this dumb.

There are millions of phone ladies and they are dumber than this, by far.

Schadenfreude on November 8, 2012 at 4:45 PM

Folks we lost the elections because at least 3 millions of our voters decided to stay home… If we got the McCain voters plus few hundred thousands more we would have won the elections… The question is why did they stay home?

The same reason people didn’t come out to vote for John Kerry. No matter how much you hate the incumbent, you gotta provide an appealing alternative.

tkyang99 on November 8, 2012 at 4:45 PM

He didnt win, MI, MA or NH. Lost ALL 3 of his home states

Flapjackmaka on November 8, 2012 at 4:34 PM

Make it 4. You forgot California. It’s still part of the US, isn’t it?

CTSherman on November 8, 2012 at 4:45 PM

Maybe 3 million voters had already “Gone Galt” and unplugged and decided to burrow in and hunker down?

Its puzzling. Thats for sure.

portlandon on November 8, 2012 at 4:41 PM

I think they “Gone Stupid”….

Obama lost 9 millions of his voters from 2008… The biggest shock is that Romney got less votes than McCain… This was an impossible thing to expect and that is why our elections experts (Rove, Barone) predicted a Romney landslide because they expected Romney to get more votes than McCain and they expected Obama to lose 9 to 10 millions more votes which he did… however they never expected Romney to get less votes than McCain, not in this environment… Was it the “Mormon” thing that caused this?…

mnjg on November 8, 2012 at 4:45 PM

No it was Romney’s pathetic campaign

He didnt win CA, MI, MA, or NH. Lost ALL  3  4 of his home states

Flapjackmaka on November 8, 2012 at 4:34 PM

FTFY

FlatFoot on November 8, 2012 at 4:46 PM

Folks we lost the elections because at least 3 millions of our voters decided to stay home… If we got the McCain voters plus few hundred thousands more we would have won the elections… The question is why did they stay home?… Obama lost 9 millions of his voters from 2008… We should have won the elections if we just able to match McCain voters plus few hundred thousands more…

mnjg on November 8, 2012 at 4:37 PM

THIS. And this is the most important issue going forward. There was a big thread earlier on this in the headlines section.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/11/08/the_case_of_the_missing_white_voters_116106.html

Check out the above article – it shows you where the lack of turnout was in Ohio. It was mostly in rural counties. I’m convinced that the Democrat negative campaign – demonizing Romney as this rich, out-of-touch guy – suppressed a lot of our vote. These voters would have been the old Reagan Democrats and lots of working class white voters.

One problem with the Romney campaign – for too long in the Spring and early Summer, they did not respond to Obama’s negative attacks on Romney’s character – and the meme took hold.

TarheelBen on November 8, 2012 at 4:46 PM

At the end of the day this quote sums it up best:

“A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government. A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover that they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy, which is always followed by a dictatorship”

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 8, 2012 at 4:46 PM

Just more wishful thinking (hey as long as a hurricane doesn’t hit before election, we’ll win next time).

If you want a silver lining in all this, go read Sean Trende’s article about white voters staying home because neither Obama nor Romney impressed. I say “silver lining” because THAT’s something we can fix.

Erich66 on November 8, 2012 at 4:46 PM

I’m with rob verdi, free stuff…when 46 million are on the dole with a 75% increase since he’s been office, millions of free cell phones, the promise of healthcare (free! too) and payouts for Pigford that have spread billions around…its the free stuff.

There ain’t a candidate conservative enough, moderate enough or magically both enough that could overcome the stimulus being piped into the pockets of millions of moochers eager to sell votes.

Now watch, any attempt to rein in entitlements will be parsed as evil repubs cutting bennies to the poor. Stand aside GOPers, vote present and let it crash.

DanMan on November 8, 2012 at 4:46 PM

Rasmussen, really? Let us know when PPP or Nate Silver tells us how many voters made up their minds in the final days.

Alpha_Male on November 8, 2012 at 4:46 PM

If this is at all true, then perhaps we can say that two women named Sandy just screwed over the country.

bmmg39 on November 8, 2012 at 4:47 PM

Folks we lost the elections because at least 3 millions of our voters decided to stay home… If we got the McCain voters plus few hundred thousands more we would have won the elections…

mnjg on November 8, 2012 at 4:37 PM

I still literally don’t believe this. Romney wasn’t any squishier than McCain, and Obama did nothing over 4 years but give every one of those voters even more reason to vote for Romney.

There’s just no way, fewer people voted for Romney/against Obama than voted for McCain 4 years ago. No way.

Romney got more independents. Romney got disaffected people that voted for Obama last time. And that was more than offset by Republicans who were leery of Obama before, but right now damn well know who and what he is – they stayed home?

Bullsqueeze.

Midas on November 8, 2012 at 4:47 PM

The same reason people didn’t come out to vote for John Kerry. No matter how much you hate the incumbent, you gotta provide an appealing alternative.

tkyang99 on November 8, 2012 at 4:45 PM

But John Kerry in 2004 got more votes than Al Gore in 2000..

mnjg on November 8, 2012 at 4:48 PM

Romney broke Romney’s momentum going into the election. He went from moderate progressive to reasonable conservative in a 90 minute debate back to moderate progressive.

astonerii on November 8, 2012 at 4:48 PM

True or not, it doesn’t change may thesis that the party most responsible for this debacle is the electorate themselves. They had a clear choice in front of them – take a different path or continued stagnation – and they chose the latter.

I really wonder if Ronald Reagan could have won with this electorate. But I fear it has reached the tipping point and there is no going back until everything crashes. At this point, I think I can out-Eeyore even Allahpundit.

thirteen28 on November 8, 2012 at 4:49 PM

Three million ‘publicans failing to show up on Election Day doomed Romney.

Let Obama eat cake and we’ll see where we are in 2014.

FerdtheMoonCat on November 8, 2012 at 4:49 PM

If people want to look for excuses and scapegoats, I would say the 7.8 bogus unemployment report did A LOT more damage than the stupid hurricane.

tkyang99 on November 8, 2012 at 4:49 PM

There are simply too many other pointers to “I want my free money” to buy this junk.

BullShooterAsInElk on November 8, 2012 at 4:49 PM

Was it the “Mormon” thing that caused this?…

mnjg on November 8, 2012 at 4:45 PM

Exit polls showed that Romney actually picked up 3% more Evangelicals then McCain did.

I have a sneaking suspicions that LIBERAL Midwest/Northeastern Christians & Catholics went to Obama.

The Southern Baptist/Evangelicals turned out in waves for Romney. But they are in safely red states, which didn’t help.

portlandon on November 8, 2012 at 4:49 PM

At the end of the day this quote sums it up best:

“A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government. A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover that they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy, which is always followed by a dictatorship”

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 8, 2012 at 4:46 PM

yup

joey24007 on November 8, 2012 at 4:50 PM


Barack Obama is now the first president in American history to win a second term with a smaller share of the electoral vote, a smaller share of the popular vote, and a smaller aggregate vote than when he was first elected. There are still votes to be counted, but as of this writing he actually has fewer votes than George W. Bush won in 2004. An important takeaway from Tuesday was the massive decline in voter turnout, particularly white voters. It is guaranteed to be down – perhaps substantially – from 2008 in raw numbers, and as a share of the total population it will almost assuredly be down substantially.

This is no coincidence; at least in part, it is a consequence of the campaign the president ran. Credit where it is due to Team Obama. Recognizing the economic headwinds the president faced, it borrowed a page from Harry Truman’s 1948 campaign, accomplishing two goals simultaneously.

First, it played to its base with a level of intensity rarely seen in the modern era. “The war on women” was a prime case in point. The idea was to maximize turnout for the president’s core groups by focusing on identity politics, encouraging them to come out and vote against a fictitious GOP bogeyman who would suppress their rights to vote, deport their friends and neighbors, deny them Medicare, ship their jobs overseas, raid their pensions, and eliminate their access to contraception. And it worked.

Second, among voters that he could not win – namely, lower-to-middle class, socially conservative whites who have disapproved of the president for four years – Team Obama worked assiduously on turning Mitt Romney into the “other.” The message to these voters was essentially: you don’t like me, but this guy is worse. They got the point, and a shockingly large number stayed home. My back of the envelope estimate, assuming 2008 turnout levels and steady population growth, suggests that almost 10 million white voters did not show up this time around.

I honestly did not think this approach would work, because unlike Truman, Obama had no FDR. There was nobody he could point to as a beacon of hope, a reminder that though the current nominee may be a disappointment, he nevertheless follows in the footsteps of a beloved leader. But I was wrong: in the end, that was the purpose that Bill Clinton served this time around; George W. Bush, naturally, played the part of Herbert Hoover.

Oftentimes, you cannot understand what is really happening until it has already occurred.

This strategy has shades of the Bush 2004 campaign, but with an important difference. While Bush played to the value voters and attacked Kerry, he also campaigned on something positive: he had kept us safe after 9/11, and he would continue to do so. There was no such positive message coming from Obama, at least none to be taken seriously.

The problem, of course, is that Obama will likely learn what Harry Truman discovered in 1949: one might be able to win reelection by ruthlessly splitting the country in half, hoping to collect a fraction of the vote more than your opponent, but one cannot govern after having made such a mess. Much like Truman, Obama enters a second term with no mandate to speak of, and with roughly half of the country intractably opposed to his policies.

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 8, 2012 at 4:50 PM

One problem with the Romney campaign – for too long in the Spring and early Summer, they did not respond to Obama’s negative attacks on Romney’s character – and the meme took hold.

TarheelBen on November 8, 2012 at 4:46 PM

Part of the problem there is they were limited by law to the degree they could respond. They couldn’t run their own ads countering that smear campaign.

Someone who’s in the know tell me, will the playing field be leveled in 2016. Seeing as how the incumbent won’t be running, does this mean neither side can start airing attack ads before the other is allowed to?

Doughboy on November 8, 2012 at 4:50 PM

IMO, it wouldn’t matter if it was sandy, the gal parts, whatever? If bho had picked up a kitten(not a dog, they are for supper) off the road these brain dead voters wanting free stuff would give that as an example as to why they voted bho?
L

letget on November 8, 2012 at 4:50 PM

This is the only time you’ll ever see me stick up for low-information voters. They can’t be this dumb.

I assure you, they really are that dumb.

E L Frederick (Sniper One) on November 8, 2012 at 4:50 PM

Granted, this result is mind-boggling in the amount of stupidity it suggests:

Never underestimate the stupidity of the mooching masses.

If four years of economic catatonia and unsustainable deficit spending weren’t enough to dissuade them months ago, then the bomber jacket routine was just icing on the cake.

Indeed.

Add media dereliction of duty and bigotry from the right and the numbers add up.

America is now a land of the free stupid.

Starve the looters.

Enjoy the Starnesvilles.

Schadenfreude on November 8, 2012 at 4:51 PM

Romney let Obama gain an advantage during the hurricane. Big difference.

What if Paul Ryan was handing out relief supplies shirtless for a couple of days?

faraway on November 8, 2012 at 4:51 PM

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 8, 2012 at 4:50 PM

does anybody really think that Barack Obama and his Chicago cronies give two whoopdie doos about “mandates”?

Biggest problem over the past four years are conservative commentators who run around talking about Obama as if he is some kind of centrist democrat who follows the “rules” of politics.

joey24007 on November 8, 2012 at 4:51 PM

mnjg on November 8, 2012 at 4:44 PM

I think we’ll forever scratch our heads on that question, I don’t know if it was the mormon thing, I doubt it. But, 3 million less voters (I think they were mostly white and elderly? I could be wrong) was indeed shocking.

As a whole though, I think he won because of the santa claus thing.

I heard juan williams and pat buchannan arguing on hannity a bit ago, and juan saying, people are grateful that they have all this huge safety net with so many being out of jobs, etc.

Can anyone honestly say, that zero is actually trying to create jobs? Seriously? He would rather not try creating jobs, to get more and more people on the public teat. That’s his goal.

rightside on November 8, 2012 at 4:51 PM

Nah, sit at home perfectionists saved Obama’s presidency. Do you hear me Levin?! This search for perfection is your creation Dr. Frankenstein- Levin!

clnurnberg on November 8, 2012 at 4:52 PM

A hurricane so magnificent in size, improbable in timing, and unexplainable in political effect cannot be the product of chance; it must be the work of God.

If this is so, perhaps God is playing the long game.

Nessuno on November 8, 2012 at 4:41 PM

Yeah, I think that game’s called “Die Already”.

squint on November 8, 2012 at 4:52 PM

THIS. And this is the most important issue going forward. There was a big thread earlier on this in the headlines section.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/11/08/the_case_of_the_missing_white_voters_116106.html

Check out the above article – it shows you where the lack of turnout was in Ohio. It was mostly in rural counties. I’m convinced that the Democrat negative campaign – demonizing Romney as this rich, out-of-touch guy – suppressed a lot of our vote. These voters would have been the old Reagan Democrats and lots of working class white voters.

One problem with the Romney campaign – for too long in the Spring and early Summer, they did not respond to Obama’s negative attacks on Romney’s character – and the meme took hold.

TarheelBen on November 8, 2012 at 4:46 PM

During the primaries I was very much against Romney for the fear of the Bain Capital issue, in fact he was the last choice for me… I thought we have dodged the bullet on this issue when Obama tried it during the summer to no effect and then they started moving to a new line of attack against Romney each weak after the “assumed failure” of Bain Capital… If Ohio is lost because of Bain Capital then my original fears were right…

mnjg on November 8, 2012 at 4:52 PM

3 million voters stayed home. I was warning about Romney long before he was nominated, said he could not win because he had ZERO core principals.

That Romney is a corny businessman of narrow learning and culture wouldn’t be so deadly if he had actually harbored conservative convictions. But he didn’t. He has been taught how to play a semi-conservative Republican on TV, but his deepest instincts always remained liberal. Hence, his dogged pride in Romneycare, legislation that Barack Obama himself would have fathered had he governed the Bay State.

How did the grandfather of Obamacare, become our party’s nominee?

Bottom line: Romney was the candidate Team Obama wanted to run most against, because he was the perfect Wall Street 1% caricature, for their class warfare hate the rich campaign”

Why 3 million voters stayed home, many were working class white disgusted with Obama but not ready to embrace Romney because he seemed like an out of touch elitist.

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 8, 2012 at 4:53 PM

This is the only time you’ll ever see me stick up for low-information voters. They can’t be this dumb.

Yes, yes they are.

squint on November 8, 2012 at 4:32 PM

I think the democrats have been right about this for a while and they keep getting more right about it every cycle. There’s a reason Obama did Glamour, the View etc and talked about Big Bird and produced his joke of a “plan” with 2 weeks to go. Most voters are indeed idiots.

forest on November 8, 2012 at 4:53 PM

If people want to look for excuses and scapegoats, I would say the 7.8 bogus unemployment report did A LOT more damage than the stupid hurricane.

tkyang99 on November 8, 2012 at 4:49 PM

That was a factor. As was Sandy. As was Obama doing better in the 2nd and 3rd debates(thanks a lot, Candy Crowley). It wasn’t just one thing. But I do believe that the Sandy aftermath took Benghazi off the front page(well, at least wherever it WAS on the front page) and allowed Obama to look bipartisan and Presidential in the final week of the campaign. Those things combined undid the damage of the first debate and allowed him to eek out a win.

But we will need to find out for certain(if that’s even possible) what exactly it was that caused so many Republican voters to stay home.

Doughboy on November 8, 2012 at 4:53 PM

Three million ‘publicans failing to show up on Election Day doomed Romney.

Let Obama eat cake and we’ll see where we are in 2014.

FerdtheMoonCat on November 8, 2012 at 4:49 PM

Romney ignored and excluded the Tea Party and Paulbots from his convention and campaign. That did not help.

derft on November 8, 2012 at 4:54 PM

mnjg on November 8, 2012 at 4:52 PM

It most definitely was. Romney was the dream candidate for Obama’s “class warfare” campaign.

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 8, 2012 at 4:54 PM

There was simply no excitement for Romney, he was a dull and boring candidate, I don’t know why people can’t accept this.

Just because he suddenly became “the great debater who vanquished Obama” in the last month before the election, didn’t fix his image. It was too late.

tkyang99 on November 8, 2012 at 4:54 PM

it shows you where the lack of turnout was in Ohio

that little southeast corner of Ohio didn’t match the thousands of military voters from Ohio that couldn’t vote. Same with Virginia, same with Florida…the voters that you are looking for in SWING states were mostly in the military. I think the largest drop off of voters overall was in non-swing blue states like NY, NJ, east Pa Obama made 50 trips to Ohio in 4 years and threw billions at the auto industries there and MI. It paid off handsomely.

DanMan on November 8, 2012 at 4:54 PM

Mitt Romney didn’t have any momentum in the lead-up to the election; any momentum he arguably had ended before Sandy.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/25/oct-24-in-polls-romneys-momentum-seems-to-have-stopped/
Republicans, take some of the personal responsibility you’re always accusing others of not taking. You can blame the storm, you can blame “The Media,” you can blame fictional “moochers,” you can blame Democrats and libruls, but own it: America has lost confidence in the GOP.

Alpha_Male on November 8, 2012 at 4:55 PM

Sandy had a lot to do with it, as did Christie slobbering all over Obama. You got the impression that Romney was close to making the sale, hence his consistent (though small) lead in the polls prior, but the hurricane stalled the mo and made the mushy middle give Obama a second look. They liked Obama, and just wanted some reason to vote for him again. Sandy and Christie gave it to them.

changer1701 on November 8, 2012 at 4:55 PM

It probably sapped some of Romney’s momentum and took the focus off Benghazi, but otherwise I agree this is BS.

Voters are just telling pollsters this as a politically correct excuse for why they voted for who they were going to vote for anyway: identity politics and more free stuff.

cool breeze on November 8, 2012 at 4:55 PM

Romney let Obama gain an advantage during the hurricane. Big difference.

What if Paul Ryan was handing out relief supplies shirtless for a couple of days?

faraway on November 8, 2012 at 4:51 PM

Now that idea has eye appeal! But seriously, people stayed home because they got complimented for their steadfast, rock-ribbed principled conservatism. Only today, did Limbaugh asked one of these ‘sswipes how they could live with themselves for handing the presidency to the 0. Only today, after it’s too late. Blame yourself, Rushbo, Hannity, Levin.

clnurnberg on November 8, 2012 at 4:55 PM

Exit polls showed that Romney actually picked up 3% more Evangelicals then McCain did.

I have a sneaking suspicions that LIBERAL Midwest/Northeastern Christians & Catholics went to Obama.

The Southern Baptist/Evangelicals turned out in waves for Romney. But they are in safely red states, which didn’t help.

portlandon on November 8, 2012 at 4:49 PM

I have not doubt that the Evangelicals voted in 2012 supported Romney in huge margins over Obama but did the Evangelical turn out in the same numbers as in 2008? If not was it because of the “Mormon” issue for those who stayed home…

mnjg on November 8, 2012 at 4:56 PM

Starve the looters.

Schadenfreude on November 8, 2012 at 4:51 PM

Explain, please.

I’ll shoot them when they come to my house to take my stuff, but in the interim, how do we ‘starve the looters’ without losing our homes and going to jail courtesy of the IRS?

Midas on November 8, 2012 at 4:56 PM

Romney ignored and excluded the Tea Party and Paulbots from his convention and campaign. That did not help.

derft on November 8, 2012 at 4:54 PM

I have been waiting for the first person to mention this.

faraway on November 8, 2012 at 4:56 PM

Republicans, take some of the personal responsibility you’re always accusing others of not taking. You can blame the storm, you can blame “The Media,” you can blame fictional “moochers,” you can blame Democrats and libruls, but own it: America has lost confidence in the GOP.

Alpha_Male on November 8, 2012 at 4:55 PM

Fictional moochers? Ha…you’re one of those that got an Obama phone, aren’t you?

changer1701 on November 8, 2012 at 4:56 PM

does anybody really think that Barack Obama and his Chicago cronies give two whoopdie doos about “mandates”?

Biggest problem over the past four years are conservative commentators who run around talking about Obama as if he is some kind of centrist democrat who follows the “rules” of politics.

joey24007 on November 8, 2012 at 4:51 PM

The point of the article is why Romney lost working class whites.

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 8, 2012 at 4:56 PM

3 million voters: “Let it burn.”

Red Creek on November 8, 2012 at 4:57 PM

If Ohio is lost because of Bain Capital then my original fears were right…

Of course you were right, we were all right.

Why do you think bluegill and all the Romney shills don’t show their face around here anymore?

tkyang99 on November 8, 2012 at 4:57 PM

All of this is BS.

Over the last 4 elections we have experienced a minimum of 7% growth in the electorate. Extrapolating that to 2012, there should have been 23 million more voters than there were.

Soak that in. 23 million.

No one, not even Nate Silver, predicted such an epic drought by Republican voters on election day. The empirical evidence was all there for a HUGE Republican showing:

1) High enthusiasm
2) Massive GOTV
3) 15% increase in EV over 2008.
4) Massive lines in Republican districts across the country.
5) 30k+ crowds to hear Romney speak.
6) Highest lead with independents in polls for decades.
7) 2010

and then… no one bothered to vote. If you look at normal electorate growth election over election and factor in Gallup’s R+3 electorate, roughly 13 million Romney votes are simply “missing”.

So many “never happened before’s” took place in this election I cannot list them all.

During the most important election of our lifetimes with high voter intensity and huge lines at the polls – 13 million Republicans simply did not vote?

Pardon me if I say BS.

Something very suspicious happened here.

mitchellvii on November 8, 2012 at 4:57 PM

No, Sandy did not “save Obama’s presidency”… at most it may have swung Ohio, Florida, and Virginia… that’s still not 270 votes.

ninjapirate on November 8, 2012 at 4:58 PM

Poor widdle paulbots and tea party “patriots”, your widdle piddly feelings made you sit at home and cry. So there, America, I will help the dems if you don’t give me a tonguebath! Screw the “patriots” who stayed home

clnurnberg on November 8, 2012 at 4:58 PM

Alpha_Male on November 8, 2012 at 4:55 PM

Is there a reason you are still here? Go gloat some where else, among your kind. Have some freaking class and respect.

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 8, 2012 at 4:58 PM

Only today, after it’s too late. Blame yourself, Rushbo, Hannity, Levin.

clnurnberg on November 8, 2012 at 4:55 PM

Can’t speak for Hannity because I never listen to him anymore; listen to Rush when I can, and Levin most every day. I can assure you that Levin for sure, and Rush I’m pretty sure, have been telling people for quite awhile to get over the fact that Romney may not have been your choice in the primaries, and that to not vote for Romney was an effing stupid move.

Midas on November 8, 2012 at 4:58 PM

Free apartment, free obamaphone, free internets, free food, free healthcare, free car, free insurance, need I go on?

Why work?

rightside on November 8, 2012 at 4:38 PM

Not even close to taxpayer dollars the financial institutions steal from FeDs.

rickyricardo on November 8, 2012 at 4:59 PM

I heard juan williams and pat buchannan arguing on hannity a bit ago, and juan saying, people are grateful that they have all this huge safety net with so many being out of jobs, etc.

Can anyone honestly say, that zero is actually trying to create jobs? Seriously? He would rather not try creating jobs, to get more and more people on the public teat. That’s his goal.

rightside on November 8, 2012 at 4:51 PM

Drug dealer creating dependency.

the_nile on November 8, 2012 at 4:59 PM

3 million voters: “Let it burn.”

Red Creek on November 8, 2012 at 4:57 PM

I hate these people and their demonic “principles”. May their names be erased.

clnurnberg on November 8, 2012 at 4:59 PM

They can’t be this dumb.

Empirical evidence strongly suggests otherwise.

hillbillyjim on November 8, 2012 at 4:59 PM

Obama ginned up his base.

Romney ignored his.

Who won?

faraway on November 8, 2012 at 5:00 PM

Poor widdle paulbots and tea party “patriots”, your widdle piddly feelings made you sit at home and cry. So there, America, I will help the dems if you don’t give me a tonguebath! Screw the “patriots” who stayed home

clnurnberg on November 8, 2012 at 4:58 PM

The 3 million that stayed home, were working class whites mostly, who saw Romney as an out of touch elitist. A perfect caricature for Obama’s class warfare campaign. If there ever was a year to not run some like Romney this was it.

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 8, 2012 at 5:00 PM

The point of the article is why Romney lost working class whites.

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 8, 2012 at 4:56 PM

my point is that Obama will do whatever he wants to do whether or not he has a “mandate”

Republicans and conservatives running elections against his machine and trying to play nice with him in Washington are blind.

joey24007 on November 8, 2012 at 5:00 PM

Midas on November 8, 2012 at 4:56 PM

Oh, the looters of your home/etc, you can shoot them. Just drag them inside bef. you call the cops.

I never refer to them. In my terminology I refer to the Ayn Rand looters, the Obama-thug-machine/gov’t redistributors, those who take your taxes and hand them out to the stupid moochers, while living like the Obamas do.

You can do a search on the terms and read up a little, short of reading the book/s.

You can also go see the movie/s. Part I and II are out.

Schadenfreude on November 8, 2012 at 5:00 PM

Republicans, take some of the personal responsibility you’re always accusing others of not taking. You can blame the storm, you can blame “The Media,” you can blame fictional “moochers,” you can blame Democrats and libruls, but own it: America has lost confidence in the GOP.

Alpha_Male on November 8, 2012 at 4:55 PM

Is there any denial that the media is so heavily liberal and has been so invested in an Obama victory? Absolutely not… Is there any denial that your stupid party cannot win a single national election if not for the parasite class that is living on the producers expense? Absolutely not and thank you Shaniqua…

Do not forget that 9 millions of Obama voters decided not show up in 2012 and that means that they lost their confidence in Obama the democrat party…

mnjg on November 8, 2012 at 5:01 PM

Midas on November 8, 2012 at 4:58 PM

NOt many days before the election a caller called that shrill windbag levin, and said he would not vote for Romney as he was not conservative enough. No vitriol, no anger. Levin said he respected the man’s decision.

clnurnberg on November 8, 2012 at 5:01 PM

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